Northwest Natural Gas (NWN)
NYSE:NWN
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Northwest Gas
(NYSE:NWN)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$57.00
▲(7.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
The score is held back primarily by structurally negative free cash flow and higher leverage, which increase funding and interest-rate sensitivity. Offsetting this, the stock shows a solid technical uptrend and the earnings outlook is constructive with reaffirmed long-term growth targets and strong recent EPS momentum. Valuation and dividend yield are supportive, and the Washington rate case settlement is a modest additional positive pending approval.
Positive Factors
Regulated rate-base recovery & rate case progress
The regulated utility model and recent rate-case outcomes provide durable earnings support: settlements enable recovery of invested capital and predictable allowed returns. Successful rate-case progress in Oregon and a Washington settlement filing underpin multi-year rate base growth and more stable cash flows.
Negative Factors
Structurally negative free cash flow
Persistent negative free cash flow reflects heavy capital intensity versus operating cash generation; over time this necessitates external funding to sustain capex and dividends. Structural FCF deficits reduce financial flexibility and increase exposure to rising financing costs and covenant risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated rate-base recovery & rate case progress
The regulated utility model and recent rate-case outcomes provide durable earnings support: settlements enable recovery of invested capital and predictable allowed returns. Successful rate-case progress in Oregon and a Washington settlement filing underpin multi-year rate base growth and more stable cash flows.
Read all positive factors
Northwest Gas (NWN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.20B
Dividend Yield4.18%
Average Volume (3M)346.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.9
Beta (1Y)0.20
Revenue Growth11.27%
EPS Growth20.04%
CountryUS
Employees1,452
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.39
Shares Outstanding41,563,847
10 Day Avg. Volume409,982
30 Day Avg. Volume346,285
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.46
Price to Book (P/B)1.29
Price to Sales (P/S)1.48
P/FCF Ratio-9.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$54.67Price Target Upside3.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.47B
Northwest Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northwest Natural Holding Company, through its subsidiary, Northwest Natural Gas Company, provides regulated natural gas distribution services to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation customers in Oregon and Southwest Washington....
How the Company Makes Money
NWN primarily makes money through its regulated natural gas utility operations. Revenue is generated by delivering natural gas to end customers and billing them under rates (tariffs) approved by state utility regulators. Customer bills generally i...
Northwest Gas Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows profitability across different business areas, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities.
Shows profitability across different business areas, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNorthwest Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong positive momentum driven by record adjusted EPS (+25.8% YoY), robust cash flow (+35% YoY), successful integration and rapid growth at SiEnergy, outperformance in the Water segment, a large long-term capex plan and a promising MX3 storage project that could meaningfully increase long-term EPS growth. Notable challenges include higher operating and interest costs, remaining permitting and execution risk for MX3, a mid-2025 housing slowdown in Texas, and some reliance on debt/equity issuance for funding. On balance, the positive operational and financial developments and clear growth initiatives outweigh the identifiable headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EPS and Strong Year-over-Year Growth
Reported record adjusted earnings per share of $2.93 for 2025 versus $2.33 in 2024, an increase of approximately 25.8%, driven by new Oregon rates, rate base growth and organic customer additions.
Negative Updates
Higher Operating & Depreciation Costs at Gas Utility
Northwest Natural Gas utility saw adjusted EPS improvement of $0.45 primarily from Oregon rates but was partially offset by higher operations & maintenance and depreciation expense, indicating cost pressures in utility operations.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted EPS and Strong Year-over-Year Growth
Reported record adjusted earnings per share of $2.93 for 2025 versus $2.33 in 2024, an increase of approximately 25.8%, driven by new Oregon rates, rate base growth and organic customer additions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance calls for adjusted EPS of $2.95–$3.15 and reaffirms long‑term EPS growth of 4%–6% (compounded from 2025's $2.93), with the MX3 Mist storage project (not in current guidance) able to lift that to 5%–7% once notice to proceed; they expect consolidated organic customer growth of 2%–3%, consolidated rate base growth of 6%–8%, SiEnergy to grow customers 15%–20% (and to contribute ~10%–15% of consolidated EPS in 2026), Northwest Natural Water to grow customers 2%–3% (and to contribute ~10%–15% of EPS in 2026), with SiEnergy + Water together ~25% of consolidated earnings in 2026; consolidated CapEx is targeted at ~$500–$550M for 2026 and $2.6–$2.9B through 2030 (≈65% NW Natural Gas / 25% SiEnergy / 10% Water); MX3 would add 4–5 Bcf at an estimated cost of ~$300M (in service by end of 2029) under 25‑year contracts with a fixed 12.5% ROE and 50% equity layer; financing for 2026 assumes ~ $150M incremental net long‑term debt (after ~$160M maturities) and $40–$50M of ATM equity, continued strong cash flow, and a targeted dividend payout ratio of 55%–65% — all based on assumptions of continued customer growth, average weather and no material regulatory or legal changes.Northwest Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.29B | 1.15B | 1.20B | 1.04B | 860.40M |
| Gross Profit | 510.06M | 397.61M | 423.87M | 341.23M | 329.12M |
| EBITDA | 470.56M | 348.09M | 344.49M | 303.37M | 264.09M |
| Net Income | 113.32M | 78.87M | 93.87M | 86.30M | 78.67M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.24B | 5.23B | 4.87B | 4.75B | 4.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 41.08M | 38.49M | 32.92M | 29.27M | 18.56M |
| Total Debt | 2.76B | 1.96B | 1.75B | 1.68B | 1.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.76B | 3.85B | 3.58B | 3.57B | 3.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.48B | 1.39B | 1.28B | 1.18B | 935.15M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -197.77M | -194.12M | -47.40M | -190.93M | -133.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 269.12M | 200.28M | 279.95M | 147.67M | 160.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -808.90M | -428.99M | -335.50M | -435.46M | -300.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 532.87M | 227.06M | 64.21M | 301.63M | 131.44M |
Northwest Gas Technical Analysis
Positive
52.83
Price Trends
49.84
Positive
48.24
Positive
44.71
Positive
Market Momentum
0.72
Positive
61.28
Neutral
67.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 52.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.32, above the 50-day MA of 49.84, and above the 200-day MA of 44.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWN.
Northwest Gas Risk Analysis
Northwest Gas disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Northwest Gas reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Northwest Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $5.33B | 17.59 | 8.13% | 3.45% | 15.06% | 12.27% | |
70 Outperform | $6.27B | 21.17 | 11.62% | 3.07% | -23.15% | 157.45% | |
68 Neutral | $2.20B | 16.85 | 7.78% | 4.18% | 11.27% | 20.04% | |
67 Neutral | $5.36B | 12.84 | 8.27% | 3.82% | -4.50% | 2.49% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
62 Neutral | $2.97B | 20.80 | 9.13% | 2.15% | 17.15% | 15.00% | |
58 Neutral | $2.96B | 103.12 | 3.50% | ― | ― | ― |
* Utilities Sector Average
NWN
Northwest Gas
52.83
11.98
29.31%
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities
124.14
-1.51
-1.20%
SR
Spire
90.68
15.51
20.63%
SWX
Southwest Gas
86.71
17.15
24.66%
OGS
ONE Gas
84.95
11.89
16.27%
CTRI
Centuri Holdings, Inc.
29.38
12.99
79.26%
Northwest Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Northwest Gas Reaches Washington Rate Case Settlement Agreement
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Northwest Natural Gas Company and most parties to its Washington general rate case filed a settlement with the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission that would set smaller phased-in rate increases than originally re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.