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Northwest Gas
(NYSE:NWN)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$51.00
▼(-1.32% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is primarily held back by structurally weak free cash flow and elevated leverage despite stable utility profitability. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call was constructive with reaffirmed/improving guidance and strong SiEnergy growth plus supportive regulatory outcomes, while technicals remain soft and valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility margins
Northwest’s regulated distribution business yields steady operating margins and predictable cash flow tied to allowed returns and rate base recovery. This stability under multi‑year rate frameworks supports durable earnings, underwriting of infrastructure spend and a reliable dividend profile over time.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Elevated leverage increases sensitivity to interest rates and refinancing cycles, limiting balance‑sheet flexibility. With substantial ongoing capex, high debt raises financing costs and constrains the company’s ability to self‑fund projects or absorb regulatory/timing mismatches without additional external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated utility margins
Northwest’s regulated distribution business yields steady operating margins and predictable cash flow tied to allowed returns and rate base recovery. This stability under multi‑year rate frameworks supports durable earnings, underwriting of infrastructure spend and a reliable dividend profile over time.
Read all positive factors
Northwest Gas Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows profitability across different business areas, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities.
Shows profitability across different business areas, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNorthwest Gas (NWN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.15B
Dividend Yield3.89%
Average Volume (3M)273.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.5
Beta (1Y)0.16
Revenue Growth4.41%
EPS Growth19.03%
CountryUS
Employees1,619
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.06
Shares Outstanding42,093,536
10 Day Avg. Volume202,852
30 Day Avg. Volume273,336
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.46
Price to Book (P/B)1.29
Price to Sales (P/S)1.48
P/FCF Ratio-9.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$55.50Price Target Upside7.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.38B
Northwest Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) operates primarily through its subsidiary, Northwest Natural Gas Company, delivering regulated natural gas to a diverse clientele including residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation customers a...
How the Company Makes Money
NWN primarily makes money through its regulated natural gas utility operations. The core revenue stream is retail natural gas service: customers pay for (1) the natural gas commodity (which is typically passed through to customers under regulatory...
Northwest Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive tone driven by strong SiEnergy growth, favorable regulatory outcomes (notably in Washington and progress in Oregon), a maturing Water platform with investment-grade financing, solid liquidity, and reaffirmed or improved guidance and long-term targets. Offsetting items include seasonal quarter results, declines in EPS for Northwest Natural Gas and Water driven by higher O&M, depreciation and financing costs, and a pending appeal on the MX3 permit. Overall the positives — particularly rapid customer growth at SiEnergy, constructive regulatory developments, strong liquidity and capital execution — outweigh the near-term operational headwinds.Positive Updates
Full-Year EPS Guidance Raised to Top Half of Range
Management now expects 2026 EPS to be in the top half of the $2.95 to $3.15 guidance range, driven by strong year-to-date performance and clarity on regulatory initiatives.
Negative Updates
Quarterly EPS Flat and Utility Seasonality
Reported consolidated EPS for the quarter was $0.01, flat to the prior year period, reflecting seasonality (majority of gas utility earnings in Q1 and Q4) and indicating limited near-term upside in a traditionally light quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year EPS Guidance Raised to Top Half of Range
Management now expects 2026 EPS to be in the top half of the $2.95 to $3.15 guidance range, driven by strong year-to-date performance and clarity on regulatory initiatives.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95–$3.15 per share and now expects EPS to finish in the top half of that range (YTD EPS $2.33 through Q2; Q2 EPS $0.01), assuming continued customer growth, average weather and no material regulatory changes; they reiterated a long‑term earnings growth target of 4%–6% through 2030 (projected to rise to 5%–7% following MX3 Notice to Proceed), expect MX3 (a $300 million, 4–5 Bcf storage expansion with 25‑year contracts, 12.5% ROE and 50% equity) NTP by end‑2027 and in‑service in 2029, forecast 2026 capital expenditures of ~$500–$550 million funded largely by strong operating cash flow, about $150 million net long‑term debt and ~$40–$50 million of ATM equity (with ≈$628 million liquidity), expect SiEnergy and Water to contribute ~25% of EPS, SiEnergy customer growth of >15% (expecting ~15%–20% annually in Texas through 2030 with >260,000 future meters backlog), Northwest Natural Water 12‑month customer growth 3.4%, first‑half infrastructure investment >$165 million, Oregon ARM settlement revenue requirement $13.0 million (vs. $15.6 million original ask) effective Oct. 31, 2026, Washington rates effective Aug. 1 with a 9.5% ROE and 50/50 capital structure, O&M expected below plan, and a dividend payout target of 55%–65% with dividend increases contemplated as payout normalizes.Northwest Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.29B | 1.29B | 1.15B | 1.20B | 1.04B | 860.40M |
| Gross Profit | 583.96M | 510.06M | 397.61M | 423.87M | 341.23M | 329.12M |
| EBITDA | 484.88M | 470.56M | 348.09M | 344.49M | 303.37M | 264.09M |
| Net Income | 125.99M | 113.32M | 78.87M | 93.87M | 86.30M | 78.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.44B | 6.24B | 5.23B | 4.87B | 4.75B | 4.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.23M | 41.08M | 38.49M | 32.92M | 29.27M | 18.56M |
| Total Debt | 2.70B | 2.76B | 1.96B | 1.75B | 1.68B | 1.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.88B | 4.76B | 3.85B | 3.58B | 3.57B | 3.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.56B | 1.48B | 1.39B | 1.28B | 1.18B | 935.15M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -265.98M | -197.77M | -194.12M | -47.40M | -190.93M | -133.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 213.20M | 269.12M | 200.28M | 279.95M | 147.67M | 160.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -487.99M | -808.90M | -428.99M | -335.50M | -435.46M | -300.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 197.97M | 532.87M | 227.06M | 64.21M | 301.63M | 131.44M |
Northwest Gas Technical Analysis
Positive
51.68
Price Trends
49.81
Positive
50.43
Positive
48.84
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
53.33
Neutral
70.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.28, above the 50-day MA of 49.81, and above the 200-day MA of 48.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWN.
Northwest Gas Risk Analysis
Northwest Gas disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Northwest Gas reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Northwest Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $3.29B | 21.72 | 9.33% | 2.05% | 14.61% | 11.96% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $6.64B | 12.78 | 12.89% | 2.69% | -63.47% | 166.76% | |
63 Neutral | $5.09B | 17.47 | 8.42% | 3.35% | -0.78% | 10.67% | |
60 Neutral | $2.15B | 16.53 | 8.34% | 3.81% | 4.41% | 19.03% | |
55 Neutral | $4.91B | 9.29 | 21.42% | 3.95% | 4.12% | 93.82% | |
52 Neutral | $2.29B | 72.11 | 3.62% | ― | 25.17% | ― |
* Utilities Sector Average
NWN
Northwest Gas
50.65
11.53
29.49%
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities
136.84
15.04
12.35%
SR
Spire
83.52
10.35
14.14%
SWX
Southwest Gas
91.75
17.54
23.64%
OGS
ONE Gas
81.39
8.73
12.02%
CTRI
Centuri Holdings, Inc.
22.62
2.70
13.55%
Northwest Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Northwest Gas Wins Approval for Washington Rate Settlement
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
On August 29, 2025, Northwest Natural Gas Company filed a general rate case with the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission under the state’s multi‑year rate plan framework. A settlement addressing all but one issue was sub...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Northwest Gas Raises Senior Notes to Refinance Debt
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Northwest Natural Holding Company raised $50 million through the issuance of 5.35% Series E senior notes due 2031 and agreed to sell an additional $70 million of Series F and Series G senior notes maturing in 2031 and 2036, respec...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Northwest Gas Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 28, 2026, Northwest Natural Holding Company shareholders elected three Class III directors—David H. Anderson, Peter J. Bragdon, and Nathan I. Partain—to serve on the board until the 202...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.