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New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR)
NYSE:NJR
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New Jersey Resources
(NYSE:NJR)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$56.00
▲(8.09% Upside)
The score is driven by solid core profitability but constrained by negative free cash flow and elevated leverage. Earnings-call messaging was notably constructive with a meaningful guidance raise and reiterated growth targets, while technicals show an uptrend but with overextended momentum indicators. Valuation is reasonable for the sector, supported by a mid-single-digit dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility earnings stability
A majority of consolidated earnings coming from the regulated New Jersey Natural Gas business supports predictable, rate‑regulated cash flows and steady return generation. High single‑digit rate base growth through 2030 underpins durable earnings visibility and dividend support for the next several years.
Storage & Transportation growth trajectory
Planned capacity expansions and recontracting create a durable, fee‑based earnings stream that diversifies income beyond commodity exposure. Higher contracted capacity increases utilization and margin stability, making S&T a structural growth driver rather than a short‑term earnings boost.
Clean Energy Ventures scale and tax‑credit preservation
Rapid, managed scaling of commercial solar and deliberate safe‑harboring of projects secures investment tax credits and predictable PPA revenues. This aligns with structural decarbonization trends, diversifies cash flows, and strengthens long‑term growth prospects in renewables.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt-to-equity near 1.6x reduces balance sheet flexibility during a multi‑year investment cycle. While typical for utilities, elevated leverage increases interest expense sensitivity and limits capacity to absorb shocks or opportunistic investments without raising costs or altering capital plans.
Negative free cash flow amid heavy CapEx
Negative free cash flow despite solid operating cash generation indicates ongoing funding needs to support capital spending. With a five‑year ~$4.8–$5.2B CapEx plan, persistent negative FCF raises reliance on external financing and could pressure credit metrics if project timing or rate recovery slips.
Execution and regulatory risk on major projects
Key S&T upside hinges on project execution and contracting; the optional Leaf River cavern lacks signed contracts and faces permitting complexity. Delays or failure to secure contracts or permits would postpone expected fee cash flows, raising project execution risk and extending the period of elevated capital intensity.
New Jersey Resources (NJR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.23B
Dividend Yield4.01%
Average Volume (3M)468.52K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)0.09
Revenue Growth13.94%
EPS Growth13.93%
CountryUS
Employees1,372
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding100,745,880
10 Day Avg. Volume682,212
30 Day Avg. Volume468,522
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.02
Price to Sales (P/S)2.37
P/FCF Ratio-20.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.18
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$53.50Price Target Upside3.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
New Jersey Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNew Jersey Resources Corporation, an energy services holding company, provides regulated gas distribution, and retail and wholesale energy services. The company operates through four segments: Natural Gas Distribution, Clean Energy Ventures, Energy Services, and Storage and Transportation. The Natural Gas Distribution segment offers regulated natural gas utility services to approximately 564,000 residential and commercial customers throughout Burlington, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, and Sussex counties in New Jersey; provides capacity and storage management services; and participates in the off-system sales and capacity release markets. The Clean Energy Ventures segment invests in, owns, and operates commercial and residential solar projects situated in New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New York. The Energy Services segment offers unregulated wholesale energy management services to other energy companies and natural gas producers, as well as maintains and transacts a portfolio of physical assets consisting of natural gas storage and transportation contracts in the United States and Canada. The Storage and Transportation segment invests in natural gas transportation and storage facilities. It provides heating, ventilation, and cooling services; holds commercial real estate properties; and offers solar equipment installation, and plumbing repair and installation services, as well as engages in the water appliance sale, installation, and servicing activities. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Wall, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyNew Jersey Resources generates revenue through multiple streams. The primary source is the regulated natural gas distribution segment, where New Jersey Natural Gas earns income by delivering natural gas to customers and charging for the distribution services. This is regulated by the state, allowing the company to earn a return on its investments in infrastructure. Additionally, NJR makes money through its wholesale energy sales, where it buys and sells natural gas and energy commodities in the market. Another significant revenue stream comes from NJR Clean Energy Ventures, which invests in solar projects and earns revenue through power purchase agreements and incentives related to renewable energy production. Partnerships with other energy companies and government incentives for renewable energy also contribute to NJR's earnings, enhancing its overall financial stability and growth potential.
New Jersey Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 02, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, a materially improved near-term outlook (guidance raised by $0.25), robust capital plans supported primarily by the regulated utility, and clear growth paths for Storage & Transportation and Clean Energy Ventures. The balance sheet and hedging strategy were presented as strengths that mitigate financing and customer-cost risks. The primary risks noted were execution/timing uncertainty on the optional Leaf River fourth cavern, comparability headwinds from a prior-year solar asset sale, and the elevated capital spending program which increases execution demands. Overall, positives (guidance raise, doubled S&T earnings target, hedging success, no equity issuance needed, record CEV additions, and stable utility earnings) substantially outweigh the manageable and near-term challenges.Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Guidance Raised and Strong Earnings Outlook
Fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance initiated at $3.03–$3.18 and subsequently raised by $0.25 to $3.28–$3.43 per share (midpoint increase of ~8.0%), marking the sixth consecutive year management has raised guidance; the raise was attributed to Energy Services' outperformance during extreme winter weather.
Quarterly NFE Results
Reported NFE of $118.2 million, or $1.17 per share for the quarter, reflecting disciplined execution and a higher utility contribution due to new base rates in place for the full quarter.
Strong Capital Investment Plan
Announced a five-year capital deployment outlook of $4.8–$5.2 billion through fiscal 2030 (referred to as roughly $5 billion), representing a 40% increase versus the prior five years; over 60% of projected CapEx is expected to be dedicated to the regulated utility.
Utility Stability and Contribution
New Jersey Natural Gas expected to contribute roughly 60%–70% of consolidated NFEPS (about 70% for fiscal 2026 after Energy Services outperformance); utility rate base positioned for high single-digit growth through 2030.
Storage & Transportation Growth Trajectory
Management expects Storage & Transportation NFE to more than double by 2027 driven by recontracting at Adelphia and Leaf River, and filed a FERC plan to expand Leaf River working gas capacity by over 70% (expansions to ~43 Bcf by 2028 and optional fourth cavern to ~55 Bcf).
Clean Energy Ventures Momentum
CEV placed a record 93 MW of new commercial solar in service in fiscal 2025 (total portfolio expanded to 479 MW) and added ~10 MW in the quarter; CEV expects in-service capacity to grow by more than 50% over the next two years and is safe-harboring projects to preserve investment tax credits.
Hedging and Customer Affordability Actions
New Jersey Natural Gas was over 87% hedged going into winter with an average hedge price of approximately $2.20 per decatherm for gas in storage and LNG versus Citygate prices that traded in excess of $135 per decatherm during the extreme cold event, demonstrating materially lower supply cost risk for customers; Save Green program participants realize up to ~30% energy usage reductions and more than 110,000 customers have participated to date.
Balance Sheet and Financial Flexibility
Management expects strong cash generation with adjusted FFO to adjusted debt projected around ~20% over the next five years, ample liquidity, a well-laddered debt profile, and no need for a block equity issuance to fund the capital plan.
Operational Execution in Extreme Weather
Company reported safe, uninterrupted operation through an extraordinary, record-setting cold weather event; utility delivered highest-ever seven-day sendouts and non-utility assets (Adelphia, Leaf River, Energy Services) performed under high utilization, generating incremental financial margin.
Corporate Milestones and ESG
Recorded 30 consecutive years of dividend increases; issued fiscal 2025 Corporate Sustainability Report focused on affordability and energy efficiency efforts.
Negative Updates
Uncertainty on Leaf River Fourth Cavern Contracts
While compression and existing-cavern expansions to ~43 Bcf have been supported by contracts, the proposed fourth cavern (to reach ~55 Bcf) does not yet have signed contracts, creating execution and timing uncertainty (management referenced potential 2029 construction timing but noted contracts are still required).
CEV Comparability Headwind from Prior-Year Solar Sale
CEV contribution was lower year-over-year in the quarter due to a prior-year gain on the sale of the initial residential solar portfolio that contributed roughly $0.30 per share in the previous period, creating a comparability headwind.
Higher Customer Bills Risk from Extreme Weather
Prolonged record cold temperatures will increase customer usage and bills despite hedging and assistance programs; management acknowledged affordability concerns in New Jersey and anticipated engagement with the new governor on those issues.
Large Increase in Capital Spending
Planned five-year CapEx of $4.8–$5.2 billion represents a 40% increase over the prior five years; while management expects funding without block equity, the substantial CapEx increase raises long-term execution and cash allocation demands.
Market Volatility and Infrastructure Needs Highlighted
Citygate and regional spot prices spiked (noted trading in excess of $135 per decatherm), underscoring regional supply stress; while this drove near-term upside, it also indicates volatile commodity environments that can pressure customers and require continued infrastructure investment.
Regulatory and Permitting Constraints
Management pointed to the need for permit reform and regulatory coordination (including to accelerate interconnects and development), indicating potential non-financial hurdles that could slow Clean Energy Ventures or other project timelines absent policy changes.
Company Guidance
Management set fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance at $3.03–$3.18 per share and, following strong winter energy‑services performance, raised it by $0.25 to $3.28–$3.43 (the sixth straight annual guidance raise), aligned with a 7%–9% long‑term NFEPS growth target; they reaffirmed a five‑year CapEx plan of $4.8–$5.2 billion through FY2030 (~$5.0B, ~40% higher than the prior five years) with >60% (historically ~64% of FY25 CapEx and ~70% of Q1 CapEx) directed to New Jersey Natural Gas, which is expected to contribute roughly 70% of FY2026 NFEPS. Storage & Transportation NFE is expected to more than double by 2027, Leaf River working gas capacity is planned to increase >70% to 43 Bcf by 2028 (potentially 55 Bcf with a fourth cavern), Clean Energy Ventures added 93 MW in FY25 (total 479 MW), ~10 MW in Q1 and targets >50% in‑service capacity growth over two years, FY25 total CapEx was ~$850M (Q1 ~$119M), adjusted FFO/adjusted debt is projected to remain ~20% for five years, no block equity issuance is expected, and the utility entered winter >87% hedged at roughly $2.20/decatherm (vs. Citygate spikes >$135), while customer programs (110k Save Green participants, ~30% whole‑home savings) and ~$16.5M in assistance funding support affordability.New Jersey Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability is solid for a regulated utility (TTM net margin ~16.5%, EBITDA margin ~36.6%) and returns are steady (ROE ~13–15%). However, financial flexibility is constrained by consistently negative free cash flow (TTM about -$52M) alongside meaningfully elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.6x), increasing reliance on external funding during the CapEx cycle.Income Statement
Results show solid profitability with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin around 16.5% and strong operating profitability (EBITDA margin ~36.6%). Revenue growth has been positive in TTM (+5.6%) and improved versus the prior-year annual trend, though the multi-year revenue path has been volatile (notably declines in 2023 and 2024). Overall, earnings power looks steady for a regulated utility profile, but top-line consistency is a key watch item.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is meaningfully elevated, with debt-to-equity around 1.6x across periods, which is manageable for regulated utilities but still leaves less balance-sheet flexibility. Return on equity is fairly steady (~13–15%), indicating the capital base is producing consistent profits. A notable data quality limitation is that TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) equity/assets are shown as zero, so balance-sheet strength is best assessed from the annual filings, where equity has been rising over time.56
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is positive and sizable (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) ~$502M), but free cash flow remains negative (TTM about -$52M; annual also negative), implying ongoing heavy investment and/or funding needs. Cash generation has not consistently covered accounting earnings (TTM free cash flow is negative versus positive net income), which increases reliance on debt and/or equity financing during capital spend cycles.41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.03B | 1.78B | 1.93B | 2.91B | 2.13B |
| Gross Profit | 435.78M | 436.70M | 299.83M | 397.07M | 301.05M |
| EBITDA | 743.88M | 666.35M | 594.06M | 565.01M | 433.52M |
| Net Income | 335.63M | 289.77M | 264.72M | 274.92M | 117.89M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.58B | 6.98B | 6.54B | 6.26B | 5.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.51M | 14.26M | 21.75M | 95.37M | 77.59M |
| Total Debt | 3.77B | 3.52B | 3.29B | 3.13B | 2.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.19B | 4.78B | 4.55B | 4.44B | 4.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.39B | 2.20B | 1.99B | 1.82B | 1.63B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -239.73M | -143.91M | -61.93M | -274.95M | -233.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 466.35M | 427.41M | 478.99M | 323.48M | 390.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -568.27M | -569.07M | -538.63M | -590.61M | -622.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 101.96M | 141.76M | 59.70M | 262.54M | 117.78M |
New Jersey Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
51.81
Price Trends
47.06
Positive
46.41
Positive
45.88
Positive
Market Momentum
1.18
Negative
82.06
Negative
90.21
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NJR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.34, above the 50-day MA of 47.06, and above the 200-day MA of 45.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 82.06 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NJR.
New Jersey Resources Risk Analysis
New Jersey Resources disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. New Jersey Resources reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
New Jersey Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $5.96B | 12.93 | 5.42% | 3.07% | -23.15% | 157.45% | |
70 Outperform | $8.68B | 12.93 | 14.87% | 3.92% | 1.10% | 140.04% | |
67 Neutral | $4.89B | 18.77 | 8.51% | 3.45% | 15.06% | 12.27% | |
66 Neutral | $5.23B | 16.02 | ― | 4.01% | 13.94% | 13.93% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $4.97B | 18.43 | 8.46% | 3.82% | -4.50% | 2.49% | |
64 Neutral | $3.10B | 22.77 | 9.13% | 2.15% | 17.15% | 15.00% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NJR
New Jersey Resources
51.87
6.74
14.93%
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities
130.88
8.18
6.67%
SR
Spire
84.18
15.85
23.19%
SWX
Southwest Gas
82.63
7.90
10.57%
UGI
UGI
40.39
10.32
34.31%
OGS
ONE Gas
81.48
12.95
18.90%
New Jersey Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
New Jersey Resources Raises 2026 Earnings Guidance After Q1
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, New Jersey Resources reported fiscal 2026 first‑quarter results for the period ended December 31, 2025, posting consolidated net income of $122.5 million, or $1.22 per share, down from $131.3 million, or $1.32 per share, a year earlier. Net financial earnings were $118.2 million, or $1.17 per share, versus $128.9 million, or $1.29 per share, largely reflecting the absence of a prior‑year gain from the sale of Clean Energy Ventures’ residential solar portfolio, even as New Jersey Natural Gas, Storage and Transportation, and Energy Services all delivered higher year‑over‑year contributions. Despite the lower headline earnings, management raised its fiscal 2026 net financial earnings per share guidance by $0.25 to a range of $3.28 to $3.43, citing strong January 2026 performance at Energy Services driven by natural gas price volatility, and reaffirmed its 7% to 9% long‑term NFEPS growth target off a $2.83 fiscal 2025 base. Segment data underscored the growing importance of the regulated utility and energy‑marketing operations, with NJNG’s first‑quarter NFE rising to $83.8 million on the full impact of a base rate case settlement and stronger BGSS incentive margins, and Energy Services’ NFE more than doubling to $16.3 million, while Clean Energy Ventures declined to $9.6 million due to the prior‑year asset sale. The updated guidance and continued emphasis on regulated returns, storage and transportation growth, and expansion at Clean Energy Ventures signal management’s confidence in its diversified model and its ability to deliver steady earnings growth and long‑term value for shareholders and customers.
The most recent analyst rating on (NJR) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Jersey Resources stock, see the NJR Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
New Jersey Resources Shareowners Back Directors and Governance Plans
Positive
Jan 23, 2026
At its recent annual meeting, New Jersey Resources Corporation shareowners elected five directors — Jane M. Kenny, Amy B. Mansue, Sharon C. Taylor, Stephen D. Westhoven and William T. Yardley — to three-year terms expiring in 2029, while the terms of six incumbent directors continued. Shareowners also approved on an advisory basis the compensation of the company’s named executive officers, authorized the 2026 Stock Award and Incentive Plan to support future equity-based compensation, and ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as independent auditor for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, signaling broad investor support for the company’s governance, executive pay practices and long-term incentive framework.
The most recent analyst rating on (NJR) stock is a Buy with a $54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Jersey Resources stock, see the NJR Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
New Jersey Resources Reports Strong Fiscal 2025 Results
Positive
Nov 19, 2025
New Jersey Resources reported strong financial results for fiscal 2025, with a net income of $335.6 million, marking a significant increase from the previous year. The company achieved the high end of its net financial earnings per share guidance and continued its trend of outperforming initial annual guidance for the fifth consecutive year. Key operational highlights include record investments in energy efficiency and clean energy capacity, as well as strategic regulatory milestones. Looking forward, NJR has introduced a fiscal 2026 guidance range and remains focused on long-term growth and shareholder value.
The most recent analyst rating on (NJR) stock is a Buy with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Jersey Resources stock, see the NJR Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
New Jersey Resources Approves 2026 Incentive Plan
Neutral
Nov 6, 2025
On November 4, 2025, New Jersey Resources‘ Leadership Development and Compensation Committee approved the fiscal year 2026 Officer Annual Incentive Plan for its named executive officers. The plan aims to align executive objectives with corporate results, focusing on net financial earnings, individual leadership, and stakeholder commitments. The plan offers incentive awards based on performance, with potential awards exceeding targets payable in restricted stock units or deferred retention stock units. Additionally, long-term incentive awards were granted, including performance share units and restricted stock units, with vesting conditions tied to company performance over a 36-month period.
The most recent analyst rating on (NJR) stock is a Buy with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Jersey Resources stock, see the NJR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.