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Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX)
NYSE:SWX

Southwest Gas (SWX) AI Stock Analysis

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SWX

Southwest Gas

(NYSE:SWX)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$97.00
â–²(11.40% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by a mixed financial backdrop (earnings recovery but high leverage, volatile cash flow, and a notable 2025 annual revenue/FCF step-down). Offsetting this, technicals show strong upward momentum, valuation appears reasonable with a supportive dividend, and the latest earnings call outlined positive guidance and a credible long-term growth plan tempered by execution/regulatory and funding risks.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strengthening
The Centuri disposition materially improved liquidity and credit profile: ~$260M net gain, full HoldCo debt repayment, and ~ $600M cash plus >$1.3B total liquidity together with a BBB+ upgrade lower financing costs, expand capacity to fund capex plans and preserve dividend policy over the medium term.
Anchored Growth via Great Basin
Commercial commitments for ~800 MMcf/d provide a structural earnings lift once in service: the Great Basin project is expected to add material regulated-like margin ($215M–$245M) and scale, diversifying and front-loading revenue capacity and underpinning multi-year rate base and EPS growth if permits and financing proceed as planned.
Capital Plan & Rate Base Growth
A sizable, multi‑year capex program tied to regulated distribution supports durable earnings through rate base growth: steady utility capex translates to allowed returns on invested capital, enabling predictable revenue inflows, supporting dividend increases and management's targeted mid‑teens EPS growth over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Sustained high leverage limits financial flexibility for a capital-intensive utility: elevated debt-to-equity increases interest sensitivity, constrains ability to absorb project delays or higher costs, and reduces the room to fund incremental capex without additional external financing or pressure on credit metrics over the next 2–6 months.
Volatile Cash Generation
Lumpy and uneven free cash flow undermines self-funding: swings from multi-year negative FCF to a brief improvement then a projected 2025 drop mean the company may need recurrent external financing or HoldCo cash to support capex and dividends, increasing execution risk if cash conversion remains inconsistent.
Execution & Regulatory Risk
The growth plan hinges on timely regulatory approvals and project execution: FERC/NEPA permitting, rate case results and supply chain dynamics can materially delay or increase the cost of Great Basin and utility projects. Such setbacks would defer incremental margin and strain financing and credit cushions during construction.

Southwest Gas (SWX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Southwest Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, distributes and transports natural gas in Arizona, Nevada, and California. The company operates through Natural Gas Distribution, Utility Infrastructure Services, and Pipeline and Storage segments. It also provides trenching, installation, and replacement of underground pipes, as well as maintenance services for energy distribution systems. As of December 31, 2021, it had 2,159,000 residential, commercial, industrial, and other natural gas customers. Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1931 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
How the Company Makes MoneySouthwest Gas generates revenue primarily through the sale and distribution of natural gas to its customers. The revenue model is largely based on regulated rates set by state utility commissions, which determine how much the company can charge customers for gas and related services. Key revenue streams include residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas sales, along with transportation revenue from delivering gas to customers. The company also earns revenue through various infrastructure projects and investments, which may involve partnerships with local governments and other stakeholders to expand service capabilities. Furthermore, Southwest Gas benefits from energy efficiency programs and incentives that promote reduced consumption and operational efficiency, contributing to its overall earnings.

Southwest Gas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive outlook anchored by successful strategic simplification (Centuri sale), strong 2025 utility performance (19% EPS increase from continuing operations and 8.7% adjusted net income growth), upgraded credit ratings, ample liquidity, constructive regulatory developments in Arizona and Nevada, and a material growth runway driven by the Great Basin expansion (800 MMcf/d commitments; $215M–$245M incremental margin). Risks were acknowledged but largely framed as manageable: higher O&M, increased D&A and interest costs, near-term earnings moderation during project construction, regulatory/permitting/legal timing uncertainty, and a planned use of HoldCo cash that will reduce year-end HoldCo balances. Overall, highlights substantially outweigh lowlights, supporting a positive sentiment for the company’s transition to a pure regulated utility and its forward-looking growth plan.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Simplification and Balance Sheet Strengthening
Completed full disposition of Centuri (Sept 2025) generating a ~$260M net gain, enabling full repayment of holding company debt, leaving nearly $600M cash on hand and >$1.3B total liquidity; S&P upgraded Southwest Gas Holdings and Southwest Gas Corp. to BBB+ (stable).
Strong Underlying Utility Financial Performance
Adjusted EPS from continuing operations rose ~19% year-over-year from $3.07 in 2024 to $3.65 in 2025; Southwest Gas adjusted net income increased 8.7% to $283.9M (from $261.2M), driven by ~ $120M improvement in operating margin (including ~$95.2M rate relief and $11.5M customer growth).
2026 Guidance and Long-Term Growth Outlook
Initiated 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.17–$4.32 and targets a 12%–14% adjusted EPS CAGR through 2030 (with front-loaded growth and an expected ~15%–17% EPS growth rate around 2028–2029).
Great Basin Expansion — Commercial Support
Great Basin open season secured nearly 800 MMcf/d of capacity commitments, supporting an estimated ~$1.7B project capex and expected incremental annual margin of ~$215M–$245M when placed in service (~late 2028); project remains on schedule with FERC prefiling approval.
Material Capital Plan and Rate Base Growth
Five-year capital plan of ~$6.3B (73% to Southwest Gas utility, 27% to Great Basin) with 2026 capex of ~$1.25B; projected 5-year rate base CAGR of ~9.5%–11.5% (utility run-rate ~7% CAGR excluding Great Basin).
Disciplined Financing and Credit Metrics
Plan targets balanced 50/50 debt-to-equity for Great Basin financing, expects ~$325M net utility bond issuance in 2026, no anticipated equity issuance in 2026 under current ATM; 2025 S&P-adjusted FFO-to-debt ~19.7% (HoldCo) and ~18.6% (Utility), both comfortably above 13% downgrade threshold.
Shareholder Returns
Board approved a 4% annual dividend increase to an annualized $2.58 per share beginning Q2 2026, with intent to sustain disciplined dividend growth as earnings and cash flow strengthen.
Regulatory Progress in Arizona and Nevada
Arizona rate case filed (requested revenue >$100M; proposed rate base ~$3.9B; requested ROE 10.25% +20bps fair value adjustment) with estimated residential bill impact ~$5/month; Nevada SB417 enables alternative ratemaking with rulemaking progressing and potential adjustments as early as 2028.
Executive Succession
CEO Karen Haller to retire after ~29 years with planned succession: Justin Brown named next CEO effective May 8, providing leadership continuity as company focuses on a fully regulated natural gas strategy.
Negative Updates
Higher Operating and Non-Fuel Costs
O&M increased by $16.8M year-over-year; excluding above-target incentive compensation, O&M rose ~1.9%, driven by higher employee-related labor costs, cloud computing and outside services (partially offset by reductions in leak survey and line locating).
Increased Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation & amortization rose by $27.6M year-over-year, reflecting a ~7% increase in average gas plant in service and an ~$8M higher amortization related to regulatory account balances (partially offset in margin).
Higher Interest Expense and PGA Carrying Charges
Net interest deductions increased by $19.4M, driven mainly by interest on overcollected purchased gas adjustment (PGA) balances and a higher variable interest expense adjustment mechanism in Nevada; other interest income declined ~$12.6M due to lower carrying charges on deferred PGA balances.
Near-Term Earnings Moderation from Project Build
Great Basin construction will accrue AFUDC on pre-service capital which will moderate near-term earnings; capital deployment ramps into late 2027/early 2028 and is subject to timing of permitting/approvals.
Execution and Regulatory Risks
Great Basin and rate case outcomes remain contingent on regulatory approvals, permitting (FERC/NEPA), supply chain dynamics and stakeholder processes; management notes timing and approvals could materially affect project schedule and earnings realization.
Legal/Regulatory Uncertainty in Arizona
RUCO challenge to Arizona policy statement remains in appellate procedure (Superior Court granted further review), introducing some regulatory/legal uncertainty despite management viewing it as manageable risk.
HoldCo Cash Usage and 2026 Year-End Cash Position
Management plans to use HoldCo cash (~$600M beginning 2026) to fully fund shareholder dividends and infuse equity into Southwest Gas for 2026 capex, projecting a nominal HoldCo cash balance at year-end 2026 — reducing holdco liquidity cushion near-term.
Company Guidance
Management initiated 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.17–$4.32 (versus a 2025 adjusted EPS base of $3.65) and targets 12%–14% adjusted EPS CAGR through 2030 (with front‑loaded 15%–17% growth through 2028–29), underpinned by a $1.25 billion 2026 capital plan ($925 million to distribution), a five‑year $6.3 billion capex program (73% Southwest Gas / 27% Great Basin), and a 5‑year rate base CAGR of 9.5%–11.5% from a ~ $6.7 billion 2025 base (utility run‑rate growth ~7% excluding Great Basin); the 2028 Great Basin expansion (subject to approvals) represents ~800 MMcf/d of committed capacity, an estimated ~$1.7 billion project cost and $215–$245 million of incremental annual margin when in service, with financing targeted at a 50/50 debt/equity mix. The plan assumes disciplined funding (~$325 million net Southwest Gas bond issuances in 2026), beginning consolidated cash of nearly $600 million and >$1.3 billion liquidity, no equity issuance expected in 2026 under the ATM, maintenance of BBB+ credit metrics with S&P‑adjusted FFO/debt ~19.7% (HoldCo) and 18.6% (utility) versus a 13% downgrade threshold (targeting >17% long‑term and >300 bps of cushion), and a 4% dividend increase to an annualized $2.58 in 2026.

Southwest Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Earnings recovered strongly from the 2022 loss into positive 2023–2024 results, but financial quality is constrained by elevated leverage and uneven cash conversion. The sharp 2025 annual step-down in revenue and free cash flow is a key near-term durability risk despite improved profitability.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Profitability has improved meaningfully from 2022 (loss) to 2023–2024 (positive earnings), with net income rising in 2024 versus 2023 and margins recovering into the low-to-mid single digits. However, revenue growth has been inconsistent, including a modest decline in 2024 and a very large revenue drop in 2025 (annual), which raises questions about earnings durability and the quality of growth.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Leverage remains a key constraint: debt-to-equity is elevated across 2021–2024 (roughly 1.4x–2.1x), which limits financial flexibility for a regulated utility profile. Positives include improving returns on equity from 2022 (negative) to 2023–2024 (positive) and relatively stable equity levels, but the capital structure still screens as debt-heavy.
Cash Flow
49
Neutral
Cash generation is volatile. Free cash flow was negative in 2020–2023, turned positive in 2024, and operating cash flow improved in 2024 versus 2023—supportive signs. That said, free cash flow in 2024 covered only a modest portion of net income, and 2025 (annual) shows a sharp drop in free cash flow versus 2024, suggesting uneven conversion and potentially lumpy working-capital/capex dynamics.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.94B5.11B5.43B4.96B3.68B
Gross Profit785.62M1.01B1.02B994.87M820.93M
EBITDA770.55M976.78M930.54M439.87M737.09M
Net Income439.83M198.81M150.89M-203.29M200.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.99B12.02B11.87B13.20B12.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments226.35M363.79M106.54M123.08M222.70M
Total Debt75.00M5.06B5.28B5.99B6.32B
Total Liabilities6.47B8.33B8.46B9.98B9.61B
Stockholders Equity3.52B3.50B3.31B3.06B2.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow618.82M409.86M-363.31M-451.96M-604.24M
Operating Cash Flow618.82M1.36B509.21M407.46M111.38M
Investing Cash Flow-798.34M-921.57M150.97M-838.90M-3.04B
Financing Cash Flow-75.14M-176.34M-700.79M356.48M3.06B

Southwest Gas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price87.07
Price Trends
50DMA
82.70
Positive
100DMA
80.84
Positive
200DMA
77.58
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.57
Negative
RSI
61.56
Neutral
STOCH
84.52
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SWX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 87.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.70, above the 50-day MA of 82.70, and above the 200-day MA of 77.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SWX.

Southwest Gas Risk Analysis

Southwest Gas disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Southwest Gas reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Southwest Gas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$5.35B19.568.51%3.45%15.06%12.27%
70
Outperform
$6.35B13.715.42%3.07%-23.15%157.45%
68
Neutral
$3.19B23.909.13%2.15%17.15%15.00%
66
Neutral
$5.41B16.5913.66%4.01%13.94%13.93%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
65
Neutral
$8.04B13.8212.52%3.92%1.10%140.04%
64
Neutral
$5.35B19.668.46%3.82%-4.50%2.49%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SWX
Southwest Gas
87.07
15.66
21.93%
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities
134.24
10.58
8.56%
SR
Spire
90.76
18.00
24.73%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
53.42
7.47
16.26%
UGI
UGI
37.20
5.35
16.81%
OGS
ONE Gas
85.77
14.14
19.74%

Southwest Gas Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Southwest Gas Announces CEO Transition and Leadership Changes
Neutral
Feb 25, 2026

On February 19, 2026, Southwest Gas Holdings announced that President, Chief Executive Officer and Director Karen S. Haller will resign as CEO of the holding company and Southwest Gas Corporation effective May 8, 2026, and as a director following the May 7, 2026 annual meeting. The company emphasized that her departure is not due to any disagreement over operations or policies, and she will remain through December 31, 2026 as an employee and advisor, receiving a $95,000 monthly salary with continued vesting of existing equity and cash incentives to support leadership transition and organizational continuity.

Following Haller’s notice on February 19, 2026, the board appointed Justin Lee Brown as President and Chief Executive Officer of Southwest Gas Holdings and CEO of Southwest Gas Corporation effective May 8, 2026, while he continues as President of Southwest Gas. Brown has been nominated to join the holding company’s board at the 2026 annual meeting and will join the Southwest Gas board the same day, with a compensation package that includes a $900,000 base salary, elevated incentive opportunities and updated change-in-control and indemnification arrangements, underscoring the board’s effort to solidify long-term leadership and align executive pay with performance and his expanded role.

The most recent analyst rating on (SWX) stock is a Buy with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southwest Gas stock, see the SWX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Southwest Gas Ends Icahn Cooperation Agreement, Board Remains
Neutral
Feb 12, 2026

On February 11, 2026, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. and the Icahn Group mutually agreed to terminate their Amended and Restated Cooperation Agreement, originally dated October 14, 2025, ending all associated rights and obligations between the parties. Despite the agreement’s termination, directors Andrew W. Evans, Henry P. Linginfelter and Ruby Sharma, who joined the board under that pact, will remain on the board and are expected to be renominated at the company’s 2026 annual meeting, signaling continuity in board composition even as the formal activist settlement falls away.

The most recent analyst rating on (SWX) stock is a Buy with a $96.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southwest Gas stock, see the SWX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Southwest Gas Announces Planned Retirement of Long-Serving Director
Positive
Feb 11, 2026

On February 6, 2026, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. announced that long-serving director Anne L. Mariucci will retire from its Board of Directors at the conclusion of the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders and will not stand for re-election. The company praised her nearly 20 years of service, including her role as Chair of the Strategic Transactions Committee, and emphasized that her decision reflects a planned retirement with no disagreements over the company’s operations, policies, or practices, signaling board continuity and stability for investors.

In her February 6, 2026 notice to the company, Mariucci stated that Southwest Gas is in a strong position with attractive opportunities ahead and reiterated that she has no disagreements with the company or its accounting and practices. Her departure marks a significant governance transition after two decades of board involvement but is framed as occurring from a position of strength, suggesting a routine succession process rather than a response to internal conflict or strategic dispute.

The most recent analyst rating on (SWX) stock is a Buy with a $99.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southwest Gas stock, see the SWX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Southwest Gas Highlights Non-GAAP Measures and Centuri Impacts
Neutral
Jan 9, 2026

Southwest Gas Holdings detailed the use of non-GAAP financial measures for the periods ended June 30 and September 30, 2025, explaining adjustments made to arrive at adjusted net income and adjusted net income from continuing operations. For the three and six months ended June 30, 2025, the company reported net income attributable to Southwest Gas Holdings of a $12.9 million loss and $101.0 million profit, respectively, which were adjusted to $38.6 million and $158.0 million to exclude costs tied to the separation and partial divestiture of Centuri, nonrecurring professional fees, non-cash amortization of intangible assets, and tax effects including remeasurement of state deferred income taxes related to the Centuri divestiture. For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, income from continuing operations of $4.2 million and $165.0 million was reduced by estimated restatement impacts from tax remeasurement but left unchanged on an adjusted basis, underscoring management’s view that these non-cash, non-recurring tax items should be excluded to better reflect operating performance and to enhance comparability with infrastructure services peers during and after the Centuri IPO and subsequent secondary offerings completed in 2024 and 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (SWX) stock is a Buy with a $89.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southwest Gas stock, see the SWX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Southwest Gas director resignation reshapes board composition
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026

On December 31, 2025, Southwest Gas Holdings director Andrew Teno resigned from the board, effective immediately, citing other time commitments and affirming he had no disagreements with the company’s financial reporting, operations, or governance practices. Teno, an Icahn Group-designated director since May 2022 under an existing cooperation agreement, will not be replaced by another Icahn nominee at this time, prompting the board to shrink from 11 to 10 members; Ruby Sharma is expected to take his seat on the Strategic Transactions Committee, while his position on the Compensation Committee will remain vacant, signaling a modest shift in board composition and activist representation as the company continues along what he described as a positive strategic and financial trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (SWX) stock is a Buy with a $89.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southwest Gas stock, see the SWX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Southwest Gas Enters Registration Rights Agreement
Neutral
Nov 26, 2025

On November 26, 2025, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. entered into a Registration Rights Agreement with the Icahn Group, granting them certain registration rights. Additionally, the company appointed Justin S. Forsberg as Senior Vice President/Chief Financial Officer, effective December 1, 2025, marking a significant leadership change. Forsberg’s extensive experience in finance and accounting, along with his previous roles at IDACORP, Inc. and Idaho Power Company, positions him well for his new responsibilities. The company also filed a prospectus supplement to register the resale of shares held by selling stockholders, although it will not receive proceeds from these sales.

The most recent analyst rating on (SWX) stock is a Buy with a $91.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southwest Gas stock, see the SWX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 25, 2026