X Financial (XYF) AI Stock Analysis

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X Financial

(NYSE:XYF)

Rating:80Outperform

Price Target:―

X Financial's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, highlighting significant revenue and net income growth. The stock's technical indicators show bullish momentum, and its valuation metrics suggest it is undervalued with a favorable dividend yield. These strengths are somewhat offset by concerns over negative gross profit, though the company's strategic focus on AI and improved asset quality present a positive outlook.

X Financial (XYF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$818.47M

Dividend Yield1.65%

Average Volume (3M)314.72K

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.1

Beta (1Y)0.29

Revenue Growth20.28%

EPS Growth27.31%

CountryUS

Employees563

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength82

IndustryFinancial - Credit Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.45

Shares Outstanding25,942,728

10 Day Avg. Volume324,498

30 Day Avg. Volume314,724

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.05

Price to Book (P/B)0.11

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

X Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionX Financial provides personal finance services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers services as an online marketplace connecting borrowers and investors. Its loan products include Xiaoying credit loan, which consists of Xiaoying card loan; and Xiaoying preferred loan to small business owners, as well as Xiaoying revolving loan. The company also offers Xiaoying housing loan, a home equity loan product for property owners; investment products through Xiaoying wealth management platform, such as loans, money market, and insurance products; and loan facilitation services to other platforms. X Financial was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes MoneyX Financial makes money through its online platform by facilitating personal loans and offering wealth management products. The company earns revenue primarily from service fees charged to borrowers for loan facilitation and management. Additionally, X Financial generates income from interest rate spreads, which is the difference between the interest rate charged to borrowers and the rate paid to investors. Partnerships with financial institutions and third-party service providers also contribute to its revenue streams. The company's robust risk management and data analytics capabilities enhance its ability to assess borrower creditworthiness and manage investment portfolios effectively, further supporting its revenue generation.

X Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 19, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 30.60%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a strong financial performance with significant growth in loan originations and revenue, improved delinquency rates, and efficient operational practices. However, there is a cautious note due to potential regulatory impacts and slight upticks in delinquency rates. The highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, indicating a positive outlook.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Loan Origination Growth

Facilitated RMB35.15 billion in loans, an 8.8% sequential increase and 63.4% year-over-year growth, reflecting solid borrower demand.

Revenue Surge

Total revenue reached RMB1.94 billion, up 13.4% from Q4 and over 60% year-over-year, driven primarily by higher borrower volumes and originations.

Improved Delinquency Rates

31 to 60-day delinquency rate improved to 1.25%, a 22% improvement year-over-year. The 91 to 180-day delinquency rate was 2.7%, down from 4.7% in Q1 2024, a 37% reduction year-over-year.

Increased Operational Efficiency

Income from operations increased by 52% year-over-year, showcasing improved operational leverage and disciplined expense management.

Strong Profitability Metrics

Non-GAAP adjusted net income for Q1 reached RMB457 million, a 44.9% increase year-over-year, while basic earnings per ADS improved by approximately 45.6% year-over-year.

New Share Repurchase Plan

Authorization of a new share repurchase plan to buy back up to $100 million worth of Class A shares and ADS, effective until November 30, 2026.

Negative Updates

Uptick in Delinquency Rates

Despite an overall decrease, there was a small uptick in delinquency rates which was previously at a low level, potentially signaling future increases.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Anticipated changes in the regulatory environment could introduce compliance challenges and may affect loan pricing and operations moving forward.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, X Financial reported strong financial performance and provided optimistic guidance for the coming quarters. The company facilitated RMB35.15 billion in loans, marking an 8.8% sequential increase and 63.4% year-over-year growth, while total revenue rose to RMB1.94 billion, reflecting a 13.4% sequential and over 60% year-over-year increase. Key operational metrics included a 33% growth in total loan outstanding balance, excluding loans over 60 days delinquent, which reached RMB58.4 billion. Credit quality improved significantly, with the 31 to 60-day delinquency rate decreasing to 1.25% from 1.61% a year ago, and the 91 to 180-day delinquency rate dropping to 2.7% from 4.7% in Q1 2024. The company highlighted a robust growth outlook for Q2 2025, expecting loan originations between RMB37.5 billion and RMB39.5 billion, supported by improved operational efficiency and disciplined expense management. Additionally, X Financial announced a new share repurchase plan authorizing the buyback of up to $100 million worth of its Class A shares and ADS over an 18-month period, reflecting continued confidence in its financial position and growth prospects.

X Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

X Financial demonstrates strong financial performance with notable revenue and net income growth. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage and effective equity utilization. However, negative gross profit suggests potential issues with cost management or pricing strategy. Cash flow metrics are robust, indicating solid cash generation and financial stability.

Income Statement

Positive

The company has shown strong revenue growth from 2022 to 2023 with a 22.66% increase. However, gross profit is negative, indicating cost of goods sold exceeds revenue. The net profit margin is impressive at 62.94% for 2023, reflecting effective cost management beyond direct costs, but EBIT and EBITDA margins are not available for 2023.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet reveals a healthy equity position with an equity ratio of 50.19% in 2023. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.10, indicating minimal leverage risk. The return on equity is strong at 20.29%, reflecting effective utilization of equity, but the negative gross profit might indicate operational inefficiencies.

Cash Flow

Positive

Operating cash flow has significantly improved, showing strong cash generation capability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.68, indicating a substantial portion of income being converted to free cash flow. Both free cash flow and operating cash flow have shown robust growth, enhancing liquidity and financial flexibility.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.73B	2.56B	1.89B	1.54B	1.51B	-61.50M
	Gross Profit
-276.37M	2.56B	-1.21B	-747.91M	-527.09M	-2.38B
	EBIT
-234.38M	0.00	0.00	1.19B	1.19B	-1.61B
	EBITDA
1.45B	0.00	0.00	1.08B	1.31B	0.00
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.34B	1.54B	1.19B	812.00M	825.41M	-1.30B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.41B	2.94B	1.20B	2.37B	2.17B	1.66B
	Total Assets
12.14B	11.82B	11.65B	8.84B	7.34B	7.53B
	Total Debt
434.50M	341.23M	577.85M	81.51M	166.50M	350.55M
	Net Debt
-2.57B	-2.60B	-2.32B	-2.29B	-1.92B	-1.30B
	Total Liabilities
5.92B	4.87B	5.80B	4.08B	3.37B	4.46B
	Stockholders Equity
6.22B	6.95B	5.85B	4.75B	3.98B	3.07B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	1.51B	805.67M	316.65M	446.55M	-684.60M
	Operating Cash Flow
0.00	1.52B	814.14M	322.70M	449.17M	-679.23M
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	122.03M	-1.11B	-913.39M	-2.35B	-3.70B
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	-1.94B	1.23B	576.35M	1.30B	4.49B

X Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price19.59

Price Trends

50DMA

14.65

Positive

100DMA

12.26

Positive

200DMA

9.38

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.47

Negative

RSI

71.00

Negative

STOCH

86.75

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XYF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.80, above the 50-day MA of 14.65, and above the 200-day MA of 9.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.00 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XYF.

X Financial Risk Analysis

X Financial disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. X Financial reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

X Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XYF	80 Outperform	$818.47M	4.09	24.00%	1.65%	20.28%	27.31%
YRD	76 Outperform	$604.12M	2.78	17.96%	5.43%	17.03%	-23.72%
NOAH	71 Outperform	$750.64M	4.13	4.76%	9.13%	-18.39%	-33.85%
ATLC	71 Outperform	$780.66M	9.99	22.68%	―	15.21%	20.25%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.87B	9.81	7.76%	16985.65%	12.28%	-7.83%
HIPO	55 Neutral	$697.86M	―	-15.58%	―	77.44%	85.53%
CIFR	51 Neutral	$1.31B	―	-18.49%	―	-0.65%	-808.88%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

XYF

X Financial

19.59

15.42

369.78%

NOAH

Noah Holdings

11.35

3.05

36.75%

ATLC

Atlanticus Holdings

51.61

24.95

93.59%

YRD

Yiren Digital

7.00

2.59

58.73%

CIFR

Cipher Mining

4.14

-0.04

-0.96%

HIPO

Hippo Holdings

27.74

9.81

54.71%

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.