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X Financial (XYF)
NYSE:XYF
US Market

X Financial (XYF) AI Stock Analysis

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X Financial

(NYSE:XYF)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
X Financial's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, highlighting significant revenue and net income growth. The stock's technical indicators show bullish momentum, and its valuation metrics suggest it is undervalued with a favorable dividend yield. These strengths are somewhat offset by concerns over negative gross profit, though the company's strategic focus on AI and improved asset quality present a positive outlook.

X Financial (XYF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

X Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionX Financial provides personal finance services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers services as an online marketplace connecting borrowers and investors. Its loan products include Xiaoying credit loan, which consists of Xiaoying card loan; and Xiaoying preferred loan to small business owners, as well as Xiaoying revolving loan. The company also offers Xiaoying housing loan, a home equity loan product for property owners; investment products through Xiaoying wealth management platform, such as loans, money market, and insurance products; and loan facilitation services to other platforms. X Financial was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyX Financial makes money through its online platform by facilitating personal loans and offering wealth management products. The company earns revenue primarily from service fees charged to borrowers for loan facilitation and management. Additionally, X Financial generates income from interest rate spreads, which is the difference between the interest rate charged to borrowers and the rate paid to investors. Partnerships with financial institutions and third-party service providers also contribute to its revenue streams. The company's robust risk management and data analytics capabilities enhance its ability to assess borrower creditworthiness and manage investment portfolios effectively, further supporting its revenue generation.

X Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 19, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.07%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong financial performance with significant growth in loan originations and revenue, improved delinquency rates, and efficient operational practices. However, there is a cautious note due to potential regulatory impacts and slight upticks in delinquency rates. The highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, indicating a positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Loan Origination Growth
Facilitated RMB35.15 billion in loans, an 8.8% sequential increase and 63.4% year-over-year growth, reflecting solid borrower demand.
Revenue Surge
Total revenue reached RMB1.94 billion, up 13.4% from Q4 and over 60% year-over-year, driven primarily by higher borrower volumes and originations.
Improved Delinquency Rates
31 to 60-day delinquency rate improved to 1.25%, a 22% improvement year-over-year. The 91 to 180-day delinquency rate was 2.7%, down from 4.7% in Q1 2024, a 37% reduction year-over-year.
Increased Operational Efficiency
Income from operations increased by 52% year-over-year, showcasing improved operational leverage and disciplined expense management.
Strong Profitability Metrics
Non-GAAP adjusted net income for Q1 reached RMB457 million, a 44.9% increase year-over-year, while basic earnings per ADS improved by approximately 45.6% year-over-year.
New Share Repurchase Plan
Authorization of a new share repurchase plan to buy back up to $100 million worth of Class A shares and ADS, effective until November 30, 2026.
Negative Updates
Uptick in Delinquency Rates
Despite an overall decrease, there was a small uptick in delinquency rates which was previously at a low level, potentially signaling future increases.
Regulatory Uncertainty
Anticipated changes in the regulatory environment could introduce compliance challenges and may affect loan pricing and operations moving forward.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, X Financial reported strong financial performance and provided optimistic guidance for the coming quarters. The company facilitated RMB35.15 billion in loans, marking an 8.8% sequential increase and 63.4% year-over-year growth, while total revenue rose to RMB1.94 billion, reflecting a 13.4% sequential and over 60% year-over-year increase. Key operational metrics included a 33% growth in total loan outstanding balance, excluding loans over 60 days delinquent, which reached RMB58.4 billion. Credit quality improved significantly, with the 31 to 60-day delinquency rate decreasing to 1.25% from 1.61% a year ago, and the 91 to 180-day delinquency rate dropping to 2.7% from 4.7% in Q1 2024. The company highlighted a robust growth outlook for Q2 2025, expecting loan originations between RMB37.5 billion and RMB39.5 billion, supported by improved operational efficiency and disciplined expense management. Additionally, X Financial announced a new share repurchase plan authorizing the buyback of up to $100 million worth of its Class A shares and ADS over an 18-month period, reflecting continued confidence in its financial position and growth prospects.

X Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
X Financial demonstrates strong financial performance with notable revenue and net income growth. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage and effective equity utilization. However, negative gross profit suggests potential issues with cost management or pricing strategy. Cash flow metrics are robust, indicating solid cash generation and financial stability.
Income Statement
70
Positive
The company has shown strong revenue growth from 2022 to 2023 with a 22.66% increase. However, gross profit is negative, indicating cost of goods sold exceeds revenue. The net profit margin is impressive at 62.94% for 2023, reflecting effective cost management beyond direct costs, but EBIT and EBITDA margins are not available for 2023.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's balance sheet reveals a healthy equity position with an equity ratio of 50.19% in 2023. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.10, indicating minimal leverage risk. The return on equity is strong at 20.29%, reflecting effective utilization of equity, but the negative gross profit might indicate operational inefficiencies.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Operating cash flow has significantly improved, showing strong cash generation capability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.68, indicating a substantial portion of income being converted to free cash flow. Both free cash flow and operating cash flow have shown robust growth, enhancing liquidity and financial flexibility.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.73B2.56B1.89B1.54B1.51B-61.50M
Gross Profit
-276.37M2.56B-1.21B-747.91M-527.09M-2.38B
EBIT
-234.38M0.000.001.19B1.19B-1.61B
EBITDA
1.45B0.000.001.08B1.31B0.00
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.34B1.54B1.19B812.00M825.41M-1.30B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.41B2.94B1.20B2.37B2.17B1.66B
Total Assets
12.14B11.82B11.65B8.84B7.34B7.53B
Total Debt
434.50M341.23M577.85M81.51M166.50M350.55M
Net Debt
-2.57B-2.60B-2.32B-2.29B-1.92B-1.30B
Total Liabilities
5.92B4.87B5.80B4.08B3.37B4.46B
Stockholders Equity
6.22B6.95B5.85B4.75B3.98B3.07B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
0.001.51B805.67M316.65M446.55M-684.60M
Operating Cash Flow
0.001.52B814.14M322.70M449.17M-679.23M
Investing Cash Flow
0.00122.03M-1.11B-913.39M-2.35B-3.70B
Financing Cash Flow
0.00-1.94B1.23B576.35M1.30B4.49B

X Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.66
Price Trends
50DMA
13.80
Positive
100DMA
11.39
Positive
200DMA
8.80
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.07
Negative
RSI
63.85
Neutral
STOCH
72.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XYF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.70, above the 50-day MA of 13.80, and above the 200-day MA of 8.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XYF.

X Financial Risk Analysis

X Financial disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. X Financial reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

X Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
XYXYF
80
Outperform
$696.05M3.4824.00%1.88%20.28%27.31%
79
Outperform
$717.29M9.1822.68%15.21%20.25%
YRYRD
75
Outperform
$575.64M2.6517.96%6.09%17.03%-23.72%
67
Neutral
$662.64M10.114.69%11.03%-21.91%146.56%
64
Neutral
$12.67B9.747.58%17015.08%12.21%-6.96%
55
Neutral
$562.01M-15.58%77.44%85.53%
55
Neutral
$1.20B-18.49%-0.65%-808.88%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
XYF
X Financial
16.66
13.06
362.78%
NOAH
Noah Holdings
9.48
-1.26
-11.73%
ATLC
Atlanticus Holdings
48.89
23.20
90.31%
YRD
Yiren Digital
6.67
2.22
49.89%
CIFR
Cipher Mining
3.57
-0.23
-6.05%
HIPO
Hippo Holdings
23.07
4.93
27.18%
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.