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X Financial (XYF)
NYSE:XYF
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X Financial
(NYSE:XYF)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$16.50
▲(17.52% Upside)
X Financial's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary drivers of the stock's score. The company's robust revenue growth and profitability, coupled with a low P/E ratio, make it appealing to investors. However, technical indicators suggest caution, and regulatory challenges could impact future performance.
X Financial (XYF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$586.59M
Dividend Yield2.99%
Average Volume (3M)417.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.6
Beta (1Y)0.14
Revenue Growth45.25%
EPS Growth46.56%
CountryUS
Employees563
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.66
Shares Outstanding25,942,728
10 Day Avg. Volume227,494
30 Day Avg. Volume417,799
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.42
Price to Sales (P/S)0.50
P/FCF Ratio1.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.50Price Target Upside17.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
X Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionX Financial (XYF) is a leading fintech company based in China, primarily engaged in providing online consumer finance services. The company focuses on offering personal loans and other financial products to consumers, leveraging advanced technology and data analytics to assess creditworthiness and deliver tailored financial solutions. X Financial operates in the rapidly growing digital finance sector, targeting young professionals and underserved markets, and aims to enhance financial inclusion through its innovative services.
How the Company Makes MoneyX Financial generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from interest income on loans issued to consumers. The company utilizes a direct lending model, where it funds loans directly and earns interest over the loan's duration. Additionally, X Financial earns fees from other services, such as loan origination fees and service fees related to its financial products. The company has established partnerships with various financial institutions and technology providers, which help enhance its lending capabilities and expand its customer base. Furthermore, X Financial benefits from the increasing adoption of digital financial services in China, creating a favorable environment for growth and profitability.
X Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
X Financial reported strong growth in loan origination, revenue, and net income, with improvements in asset quality and a robust share repurchase program. Despite the positive financial performance, the company faces regulatory challenges and plans to moderate loan facilitation to prioritize asset quality. Overall, the call reflects a largely positive outlook with some caution due to regulatory factors.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Loan Origination Growth
Facilitated RMB 38.99 billion in loans, a 10.9% sequential increase and 71.4% growth year-over-year, supported by robust borrower demand.
Strong Revenue Performance
Total revenue reached RMB 2.27 billion, up 17.3% sequentially and 65.6% year-over-year, driven by increased loan origination volumes.
Improved Asset Quality
31- to 60-day delinquency rate improved to 1.16% from 1.29% a year ago, and 91- to 180-day delinquency rate decreased to 2.91% from 4.38%, indicating improved borrower behavior.
Increased Net Income and Earnings Per ADS
Non-GAAP adjusted net income reached RMB 593.2 million, up 58.3% year-over-year, with earnings per ADS increasing by 85.8%.
Robust Share Repurchase Program
Approximately 16.7 million Class A ordinary shares repurchased, with USD 68.2 million remaining under the new USD 100 million share repurchase program.
Dividend Declaration
Board approved a cash dividend of USD 0.28 per ADS as part of the semiannual dividend policy.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Challenges
Evolving regulatory environment in China poses compliance obligations, though the company remains aligned and proactive in engaging with authorities.
Moderation in Loan Facilitation
Projected moderation in loan facilitation for Q3 2025 to RMB 32 billion to RMB 34 billion, focusing on asset quality over volume growth.
Company Guidance
During the X Financial Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported strong financial performance and provided guidance for the upcoming quarter. In Q2 2025, X Financial facilitated RMB 38.99 billion in loans, reflecting a 71.4% increase year-over-year. Total revenue amounted to RMB 2.27 billion, up 65.6% compared to the previous year. The company's active borrower base grew by 73.7% to approximately 2.85 million. Moreover, the 31- to 60-day delinquency rate improved to 1.16%, and the 91 to 180 days delinquency rate decreased to 2.91%, indicating enhancements in asset quality. Looking ahead, X Financial expects loan origination for Q3 2025 to range between RMB 32 billion and RMB 34 billion, with a focus on maintaining asset quality and profitability amidst regulatory changes. The company's ongoing share repurchase program and dividend policy underscore its commitment to capital return.X Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
X Financial demonstrates strong financial health with impressive revenue growth, profitability, and efficient cash flow management. The company maintains a conservative leverage position and effectively utilizes equity to generate returns. However, historical fluctuations in revenue and cash flow growth rates highlight potential risks.Income Statement
X Financial has demonstrated impressive revenue growth of 66.27% in the latest year, with strong gross and net profit margins of 66.62% and 26.23% respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 63.02% and 63.14%, indicating efficient operations. However, the company has experienced volatility in revenue growth in past years, which could pose a risk.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05, reflecting conservative leverage. The return on equity is strong at 22.15%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 58.82%, indicating a stable financial structure. However, past fluctuations in equity and debt levels suggest potential risks.78
Positive
Cash Flow
X Financial's cash flow performance is strong, with a significant increase in free cash flow and a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.05. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. Despite this, historical volatility in cash flow growth rates could be a concern.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.94B | 5.87B | 4.81B | 1.54B | 1.51B | -61.50M |
| Gross Profit | 1.43B | 3.91B | 1.72B | -488.13M | -527.09M | -2.38B |
| EBITDA | 1.05B | 3.71B | 1.51B | 1.08B | 1.31B | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 1.63B | 1.54B | 1.19B | 812.00M | 825.41M | -1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.09B | 11.82B | 11.65B | 8.84B | 7.34B | 7.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.52B | 2.94B | 1.20B | 2.37B | 2.17B | 1.66B |
| Total Debt | 603.50M | 341.23M | 577.85M | 81.51M | 178.83M | 367.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.66B | 4.87B | 5.80B | 4.08B | 3.37B | 4.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.44B | 6.95B | 5.85B | 4.75B | 3.98B | 3.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.51B | 805.67M | 316.65M | 446.55M | -684.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.52B | 814.14M | 322.70M | 449.17M | -679.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 122.03M | -1.11B | -913.39M | -2.35B | -3.70B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.94B | 1.23B | 576.35M | 1.30B | 4.49B |
X Financial Technical Analysis
Negative
14.04
Price Trends
15.35
Negative
15.83
Negative
12.76
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.26
Positive
44.11
Neutral
28.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XYF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.51, below the 50-day MA of 15.35, and above the 200-day MA of 12.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XYF.
X Financial Risk Analysis
X Financial disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. X Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
X Financial Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $586.59M | 2.65 | 24.28% | 2.99% | 45.25% | 46.56% | |
78 Outperform | 1.15B | 13.39 | 20.88% | ― | 19.27% | 34.76% | |
75 Outperform | 920.94M | 11.41 | 18.96% | ― | 0.77% | 12.08% | |
73 Outperform | 967.52M | 4.54 | 10.25% | 5.29% | 3.11% | 95.40% | |
72 Outperform | 520.17M | 2.93 | 16.58% | 6.48% | 12.69% | -35.36% | |
70 Outperform | 719.95M | 10.30 | 0.81% | ― | -39.25% | 0.00% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.