Qudian (QD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $653.90M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 663.39K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 0.54%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 262
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 125,912,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 740,863
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 663,393
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -3.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -48.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.40
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 21.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(21.95% Upside)

Qudian's stock score is primarily influenced by strong technical indicators, suggesting positive market momentum, despite financial challenges. While the P/E ratio is reasonable, the absence of a dividend yield and financial performance concerns temper the overall attractiveness.

Qudian Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Qudian Inc. is a China-based company that primarily operates in the consumer finance sector. The company offers small cash credit products to underbanked consumers through its online platform. By leveraging big data analytics and technology, Qudian provides accessible and convenient credit solutions, helping consumers meet short-term cash needs.

How the Company Makes Money

Qudian makes money primarily through the interest and fees charged on the credit products it offers to consumers. The company extends small loans to individuals, who then repay with interest over a specified period. Qudian utilizes technology-driven risk management to assess creditworthiness and manage its lending portfolio. Additionally, the company may generate revenue through service fees for facilitating transactions and partnerships with other financial institutions seeking to reach underbanked populations in China. Qudian's revenue model is heavily reliant on its ability to manage credit risk and maintain a low default rate among its borrowers.

Qudian Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Qudian faces significant challenges with declining revenue and profitability, coupled with inconsistent cash flow performance. While the balance sheet reveals financial stability with low leverage, the income and cash flow statements highlight operational inefficiencies and liquidity concerns.

Income Statement

Qudian's income statement reflects significant challenges. Revenue has experienced a sharp decline from 2019 to 2024, with recent periods showing negative growth. The gross profit margin has deteriorated, turning negative in 2023, and the net profit margin has been inconsistent, though it was positive in 2024. The EBIT margin and EBITDA margin also highlight operational inefficiencies, particularly in the latest year with negative EBIT. These trends suggest declining profitability and potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains relatively stable with strong equity levels, as indicated by a high equity ratio. The company has maintained a low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting prudent leverage management. However, the return on equity has fluctuated, indicating potential challenges in generating returns on shareholder investments. Overall, the company's balance sheet reflects financial stability but mixed profitability performance.

Cash Flow

Qudian's cash flow statement indicates volatility, particularly with free cash flow, which was negative in recent years, reflecting potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has shown inconsistency, suggesting issues in converting earnings to cash. Despite these challenges, the company has managed positive financing cash flow in the latest period, indicating external funding support. The cash flow trends highlight liquidity management as a key area for improvement.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	216.43M	126.34M	577.49M	1.65B	3.69B
Gross Profit	15.40M	-33.78M	194.40M	1.36B	2.83B
EBITDA	213.00M	142.75M	-201.86M	961.87M	1.29B
Net Income	91.73M	39.13M	-361.96M	589.07M	958.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.46B	12.48B	12.75B	14.07B	13.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.39B	9.40B	8.88B	7.99B	6.58B
Total Debt	787.40M	69.70M	152.05M	1.03B	1.03B
Total Liabilities	1.17B	794.24M	703.72M	1.55B	1.49B
Stockholders Equity	11.29B	11.69B	12.04B	12.52B	11.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-429.00M	-213.01M	-12.76M	443.63M	2.25B
Operating Cash Flow	-111.00M	352.02M	260.87M	922.07M	2.47B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.34B	3.90B	1.88B	-246.58M	-3.27B
Financing Cash Flow	186.84M	-565.97M	-834.99M	-84.19M	-1.59B

Qudian Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For QD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.57, above the 50-day MA of 3.23, and above the 200-day MA of 2.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for QD.

Qudian Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FINV	79 Outperform	$2.15B	6.18	17.91%	3.10%	5.13%	25.93%
YRD	73 Outperform	$496.84M	2.70	14.69%	6.85%	12.45%	-36.64%
LX	73 Outperform	$1.09B	6.10	14.86%	2.83%	3.11%	95.40%
QD	70 Outperform	$653.90M	16.94	2.77%	―	0.54%	―
GDOT	70 Outperform	$537.38M	―	-0.62%	―	19.12%	75.50%
Sector *	67 Neutral	¥764.29B	11.15	7.42%	3.20%	7.66%	14.08%
FOA	64 Neutral	$599.20M	29.96	33.40%	―	276.86%	―