Finvolution Group (FINV)
NYSE:FINV
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FinVolution Group
(NYSE:FINV)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(9.13% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/04/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial strength (high margins, low leverage, solid ROE) and very attractive headline valuation (low P/E and high yield). These positives are moderated by weaker growth signals—TTM revenue decline and softer FCF—and by earnings-call guidance for a 5%–15% revenue contraction amid China regulatory and credit-risk pressures. Technically, the stock shows improving near-term momentum but remains below the 200-day trend.
Positive Factors
High margins
Sustained high gross and net margins indicate the platform captures significant value per transaction and has pricing power. Over 2–6 months this supports resilience to revenue volatility, funds reinvestment in tech and marketing, and maintains cash available for shareholder returns and provisioning.
Negative Factors
Guidance for revenue decline
Management's explicit guidance for a 5%–15% revenue decline signals structural headwinds from China regulation and portfolio runoff. Lower origination volumes reduce core fee income and slow scale benefits, pressuring medium‑term reinvestment, cash generation, and operating leverage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High margins
Sustained high gross and net margins indicate the platform captures significant value per transaction and has pricing power. Over 2–6 months this supports resilience to revenue volatility, funds reinvestment in tech and marketing, and maintains cash available for shareholder returns and provisioning.
Read all positive factors
FinVolution Group (FINV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.27B
Dividend Yield5.2%
Average Volume (3M)1.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.4
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth4.05%
EPS Growth8.52%
CountryUS
Employees3,623
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.05
Shares Outstanding122,754,005
10 Day Avg. Volume1,100,394
30 Day Avg. Volume1,476,804
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.63
Price to Book (P/B)0.56
Price to Sales (P/S)0.70
P/FCF Ratio5.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.36
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)8.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.49B
FinVolution Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FinVolution Group operates fintech platform that connects underserved individual borrowers with financial institutions in China. It operates in online consumer finance industry. The company's platform empowered by proprietary technologies, feature...
How the Company Makes Money
FinVolution generates revenue primarily by providing services related to the facilitation and management of consumer loans on its platform. Key revenue streams include (1) transaction and service fees earned for originating and facilitating loans ...
FinVolution Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 16, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a resilient performance with modest group revenue and profit growth, strong and fast-growing international results (notably higher revenue share and profitability in Indonesia/Philippines and a strategic entry into Australia), meaningful shareholder returns, and improved funding costs. Offsetting these positives are regulatory headwinds in China that drove moderated origination and higher short-term credit metrics, plus guidance for a 5%–15% revenue decline in 2026. Overall, the company emphasizes diversification and execution to offset China uncertainty.Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and Net Profit Growth
Group full year revenue of RMB 13.6 billion, up 3.8% year-over-year; net profit rose to RMB 2.5 billion, up 6.6% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
China Regulatory Headwinds and Volume Moderation
Regulatory uncertainty in China tempered full year transaction volume to RMB 200 billion, down 2.9% year-over-year; Q4 China loan origination moderated to RMB 38.7 billion and loan balance was RMB 68.3 billion as the company prioritized risk over origination.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Revenue and Net Profit Growth
Group full year revenue of RMB 13.6 billion, up 3.8% year-over-year; net profit rose to RMB 2.5 billion, up 6.6% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided FY2026 group revenue to decline 5%–15% year‑over‑year while expecting international revenue to be roughly 30% of full‑year revenue (vs. 31% of quarterly revenue and 21% a year ago) and reiterated a long‑term target of 50% international mix by 2030, with international profitability expected to scale meaningfully above the >USD15 million combined operating profit delivered by Indonesia and the Philippines in 2025. They said China will be run with patience and higher credit standards after Q4 originations of RMB 38.7 billion and a loan balance of RMB 68.3 billion, noting vintage loss for new cohorts stabilized around 3%, CM2 rose from 0.61% to 0.77%, Q4 30‑day collection fell to 86% (from 88%), and day‑1 delinquency has trended down to ~5% in Jan/Feb. Key reported metrics included FY2025 group revenue RMB 13.6 billion (+3.8% YoY), net profit RMB 2.5 billion (+6.6%), FY transaction volume RMB 200 billion (‑2.9% YoY), Q4 international volume RMB 4.1 billion/US$0.6 billion (+41% YoY) with 3.8 million unique borrowers (+133.8% YoY) and a full‑year Indonesia/Philippines user base of 5.9 million, funding cost down 20 bps QoQ to 3.4%, take‑rate ~3%, and continued shareholder returns (USD 107 million buybacks in 2025, USD 40.7 million in Q4, ~USD 38 million in Q1 so far, ~USD 74 million remaining under a USD 150 million program), a ~USD 74.5 million dividend (DPS USD 0.306, +10.5%) and total shareholder return of ~USD 182 million (~50% payout).FinVolution Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 13.20B | 13.07B | 12.60B | 11.28B | 9.54B |
| Gross Profit | 10.38B | 10.36B | 9.90B | 9.10B | 7.63B |
| EBITDA | 3.02B | 2.62B | 2.45B | 2.58B | 2.68B |
| Net Income | 2.47B | 2.38B | 2.34B | 2.27B | 2.51B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 25.43B | 23.61B | 21.29B | 21.38B | 18.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.22B | 7.51B | 7.93B | 7.06B | 5.62B |
| Total Debt | 1.32B | 34.36M | 41.63M | 176.99M | 33.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 8.58B | 8.05B | 7.42B | 8.94B | 7.43B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.56B | 15.20B | 13.75B | 12.37B | 10.66B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.77B | 2.87B | 875.33M | 216.06M | 574.96M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.87B | 2.89B | 1.41B | 268.83M | 630.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.18B | -2.30B | 1.41B | -1.55B | 1.99B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -194.70M | -622.72M | -2.56B | -795.86M | -239.80M |
FinVolution Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
5.04
Price Trends
5.01
Negative
4.94
Negative
6.19
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
49.22
Neutral
31.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FINV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.69, above the 50-day MA of 5.01, and below the 200-day MA of 6.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FINV.
FinVolution Group Risk Analysis
FinVolution Group disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. FinVolution Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We bear credit risks for a substantial majority of the loans funded by institutional funding partners to borrowers we introduced. If we fail to effectively manage credit risk of our loans and our overdue loans increase, our business, financial condition and results of operations may be materially adversely affected. Q4, 2023
2.
We face indirect technology, cybersecurity and operational risks relating to third parties. Q4, 2023
3.
We face uncertainties with respect to the implementation of the Foreign Investment Law of the PRC and how it may impact the viability of our current corporate structure, corporate governance and business operations. Q4, 2023
FinVolution Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.27B | 5.42 | 15.80% | 5.20% | 4.05% | 8.52% | |
72 Outperform | $361.80M | 4.55 | 14.37% | 8.86% | -7.69% | 48.72% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | $185.16M | 28.48 | 0.54% | 10.37% | -1.41% | -98.13% | |
| ― | $1.76B | ― | -67.58% | ― | 75.04% | -679.87% | |
| ― | $2.33B | -3.80 | 0.96% | ― | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
FINV
FinVolution Group
5.22
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-33.47%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.