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FinVolution Group (FINV)
NYSE:FINV
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FinVolution Group
(NYSE:FINV)
Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(21.95%Upside)
Positive Factors
Earnings
FINV reported solid growth in operating profit, reaching an all-time high, mainly due to improved domestic net revenue take rate and higher overseas revenue contribution.
Stock Buybacks
A US$150mn repurchase program was launched, indicating flexibility to re-accelerate buybacks.
Negative Factors
Domestic Loan Volume
Domestic loan volume growth decelerated due to seasonal distortions from events like CNY.
Non-GAAP NPAT Growth
Normalization of other income, such as government subsidies, resulted in slightly slower growth in non-GAAP NPAT.
FinVolution Group (FINV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.55B
Dividend Yield2.73%
Average Volume (3M)1.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.4
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth5.13%
EPS Growth25.93%
CountryUS
Employees3,623
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength75
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.40
Shares Outstanding140,073,870
10 Day Avg. Volume1,579,083
30 Day Avg. Volume1,685,789
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.70
Price to Book (P/B)1.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio5.75
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.55Price Target Upside17.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
FinVolution Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFinVolution Group (FINV) is a leading fintech platform in China that specializes in connecting underserved individual borrowers with financial institutions. The company operates in the online consumer finance industry, providing microloans and facilitating financial inclusion through its innovative technology and risk management systems. FinVolution Group leverages big data analytics and artificial intelligence to offer efficient, transparent, and secure lending services.
How the Company Makes MoneyFinVolution Group makes money primarily through its platform services fees, which are charged to financial institutions for facilitating loan transactions. The company earns revenue by connecting borrowers with lenders and charging a fee based on the loan amount and transaction volume. Additionally, FinVolution Group may generate income from late fees and other service charges associated with loan management. The company’s robust risk assessment and credit scoring technology help minimize default rates, enhancing profitability. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and banks expand their lending capacity and market reach, contributing to their earnings.
FinVolution Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 20, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 14.02%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance by FinVolution in Q1 2025, highlighted by record-breaking profits and robust international growth. Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and seasonal impacts in Indonesia, the company demonstrated resilience and adaptability. Highlights such as increased borrower acquisition, international expansion, and technological advancements in risk assessment outweigh the lowlights.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Net Profit
FinVolution reported a record-breaking quarterly net profit of RMB 738 million, the highest since transitioning to a loan facilitation model in 2019, representing a 39% year-over-year increase and an 8% quarter-over-quarter increase.
International Business Growth
International transaction volume grew 36% year-over-year, with an outstanding loan balance increase of 46% to RMB 1.9 billion. The international business contributed 20.4% of total net revenue in Q1 2025, up from 18.8% the previous year.
Strong Borrower Acquisition
FinVolution onboarded 1.2 million new borrowers in Q1 2025, up 62% year-over-year. International markets saw a 90% year-over-year increase in new borrowers, marking the fourth consecutive quarter where international acquisitions exceeded those in China.
Improved Risk Assessment
The company reported statistically significant improvements in risk assessment effectiveness through the use of large language models, enhancing their ability to evaluate user default probabilities.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic Uncertainties
FinVolution is cautious of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, including global trade tensions, property sector softness, and evolving regulations in China's consumer finance sector.
Seasonal Softness in Indonesia
Indonesia experienced some seasonal impact in March due to Ramadan, resulting in slower growth despite a 10% year-over-year increase in transaction volume.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, FinVolution Group reported a 10% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by an increased take rate in China and a 36% rise in international transaction volume. The company achieved a record net profit of RMB 738 million, marking a 39% year-over-year and 8% quarter-over-quarter increase. FinVolution's international business contributed 20.4% of total net revenue, up from 18.8% in the previous year, with international transaction volume reaching RMB 3 billion. The company onboarded 1.2 million new borrowers, a 62% increase year-over-year, with international acquisitions surpassing those in China. FinVolution aims to have international business contribute 50% of total revenue by 2030. The company is leveraging large language models for risk assessment and improving operational efficiency through technology initiatives. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, FinVolution maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, reiterating its 2025 full-year revenue guidance of RMB 14.4 billion to RMB 15 billion, representing 10% to 15% growth year-over-year.FinVolution Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
FinVolution Group exhibits impressive financial health with strong profitability, a sound financial structure, and efficient cash flow management. Robust revenue and profit margins, alongside a conservative debt usage and stable equity position, provide a solid foundation for sustained growth.Income Statement
FinVolution Group demonstrates strong income statement metrics with a consistent revenue growth trajectory. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is robust at 81.1%, and the net profit margin stands at 19.4%. The EBIT margin is 20.8%, indicating operational efficiency, while the EBITDA margin is notable at 28.9%. Year-over-year revenue growth from 2024 to 2025 is 2.4%, signaling steady business expansion.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity foundation with an equity ratio of 63.3%, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is minimal at 0.38, showing conservative financial leverage. Return on equity is strong at 16.8%, highlighting effective management of shareholders' investments. However, total assets growth is moderate, suggesting room for improvement in asset utilization.78
Positive
Cash Flow
FinVolution Group's cash flow management is commendable, with a free cash flow growth rate of 17.4% from 2024 to 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.29, indicating effective cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.29, reflecting strong liquidity and capacity to finance growth.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 13.07B | 12.60B | 11.13B | 9.47B | 7.56B |
| Gross Profit | 10.36B | 9.90B | 9.10B | 7.63B | 6.24B |
| EBITDA | 7.14B | 6.88B | 2.52B | 2.61B | 2.40B |
| Net Income | 2.38B | 2.34B | 2.27B | 2.51B | 1.97B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 23.61B | 21.29B | 21.38B | 18.14B | 14.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.51B | 7.93B | 7.06B | 5.62B | 4.60B |
| Total Debt | 34.36M | 41.63M | 176.99M | 33.36M | 43.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 8.05B | 7.42B | 8.94B | 7.43B | 6.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.20B | 13.75B | 12.37B | 10.66B | 8.36B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.87B | 875.33M | 216.06M | 574.96M | 2.17B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.89B | 1.41B | 268.83M | 630.23M | 2.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.30B | 1.41B | -1.55B | 1.99B | 1.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -622.72M | -2.56B | -795.86M | -239.80M | -3.09B |
FinVolution Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.84
Price Trends
9.15
Positive
8.76
Positive
7.68
Positive
Market Momentum
0.33
Positive
52.77
Neutral
32.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FINV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.87, above the 50-day MA of 9.15, and above the 200-day MA of 7.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FINV.
FinVolution Group Risk Analysis
FinVolution Group disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. FinVolution Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We bear credit risks for a substantial majority of the loans funded by institutional funding partners to borrowers we introduced. If we fail to effectively manage credit risk of our loans and our overdue loans increase, our business, financial condition and results of operations may be materially adversely affected. Q4, 2023
2.
We face indirect technology, cybersecurity and operational risks relating to third parties. Q4, 2023
3.
We face uncertainties with respect to the implementation of the Foreign Investment Law of the PRC and how it may impact the viability of our current corporate structure, corporate governance and business operations. Q4, 2023
FinVolution Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.55B | 7.38 | 17.91% | 2.73% | 5.13% | 25.93% | |
80 Outperform | $5.43B | 6.45 | 30.67% | 3.29% | 3.88% | 56.29% | |
74 Outperform | $527.94M | 2.86 | 14.69% | 3.60% | 12.45% | -36.64% | |
69 Neutral | $1.10B | 6.14 | 12.60% | 3.36% | 7.53% | 37.86% | |
63 Neutral | $531.71M | 13.50 | 2.77% | ― | 0.54% | ― | |
58 Neutral | HK$91.09B | 5.21 | -3.21% | 5.20% | 7.36% | -55.21% | |
52 Neutral | $2.41B | ― | -3.79% | 4.57% | -38.81% | -425.73% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
FINV
FinVolution Group
9.84
5.01
103.73%
YRD
Yiren Digital
6.07
1.54
34.00%
QD
Qudian
3.19
1.23
62.76%
LX
Lexinfintech Holdings
6.32
4.68
285.37%
QFIN
Qifu Technology
42.28
23.78
128.54%
LU
Lufax Holding
2.77
-0.04
-1.42%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.