Xp Incorporation (XP)
NASDAQ:XP
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XP
(NASDAQ:XP)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▼(-14.69% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is supported by strong profitability and cash-flow quality, plus an attractive low P/E valuation. It is held back by weak technicals (below major moving averages with negative momentum) and financial risk from elevated leverage; the earnings call was constructive overall but acknowledged near-term market-driven pressure and cost/efficiency headwinds.
Positive Factors
High and sustainable margins
Consistently elevated operating (~33%) and net (~28%) margins indicate durable underlying economics from platform fees, advisory and higher‑margin retail products. High margins provide earnings resilience through market cycles and more room to fund growth, buybacks, or dividends even if top‑line fluctuates.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage on the balance sheet
High debt‑to‑equity increases sensitivity to funding costs and liquidity shocks; operating cash flow relative to debt is modest (TTM ~0.15), so sustained market stress or tighter credit could raise refinancing or funding risk and constrain strategic flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and sustainable margins
Consistently elevated operating (~33%) and net (~28%) margins indicate durable underlying economics from platform fees, advisory and higher‑margin retail products. High margins provide earnings resilience through market cycles and more room to fund growth, buybacks, or dividends even if top‑line fluctuates.
Read all positive factors
XP (XP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.90B
Dividend Yield1.1%
Average Volume (3M)5.29M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.9
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth10.28%
EPS Growth17.87%
CountryUS
Employees6,834
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.98
Shares Outstanding415,263,060
10 Day Avg. Volume7,797,172
30 Day Avg. Volume5,289,516
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.49
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)2.59
P/FCF Ratio3.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap14.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.67Price Target Upside21.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)10.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.66B
XP Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XP Inc. provides financial products and services in Brazil. It offers securities brokerage, private pension plans, commercial, and investment banking products, such as loan operations and transactions in the foreign exchange markets and deposits; ...
How the Company Makes Money
XP primarily makes money by earning fees and commissions associated with investing and financial intermediation on its platform. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Brokerage and trading-related revenue: commissions and/or spreads tied to c...
XP Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 18, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive picture: the company delivered healthy year-over-year growth across client assets, revenues, earnings, and EPS, showed strong retail momentum and fee-based adoption, and announced meaningful capital returns (buybacks and dividends). Short-term challenges from March volatility, credit spread widening, weaker DCM/fixed-income issuance and a temporary NPS dip pressured sequential revenue and margins, but management framed these as largely external and transient, expecting stabilization and a return to double-digit growth. On balance the positives (broad YoY growth, capital strength, retail flows and strategic progress on fee-based revenues) outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Client Assets and Growth
Total client assets (AUM + AUA) reached BRL 2.1 trillion, representing 21% year-over-year growth, demonstrating strong asset gathering and market share expansion.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility and Credit Spread Widening
Increased global volatility and a widening of domestic credit spreads in March produced mark-to-market losses and pressured local market sentiment; management attributes QoQ revenue softness to these external factors.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Client Assets and Growth
Total client assets (AUM + AUA) reached BRL 2.1 trillion, representing 21% year-over-year growth, demonstrating strong asset gathering and market share expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a commitment to double‑digit growth for 2026 and provided several Q1 metrics to support that view: total client assets (AUM+AUA) were BRL 2.1 trillion (+21% YoY), advisers 18.3k (+1% YoY), active clients 4.8m (+2% YoY); Q1 gross revenue BRL 4.9bn (+8% YoY), adjusted EBT BRL 1.4bn (+8% YoY) with a 30% EBT margin, adjusted net income BRL 1.3bn (+7% YoY) and diluted EPS +9% YoY, quarterly ROE 21.7% and net margin 27.8%; retail revenue BRL 800m (+10% YoY), equities revenue ~BRL 1.2bn (+22% YoY, +13% QoQ), wholesale +26% YoY; SG&A BRL 1.6bn and LTM efficiency ratio 34.6% (+100bps YoY); RWA BRL 122bn (+3% QoQ), market RWA +2% QoQ, VaR 14bps (‑3bps QoQ) and BIS ratio 20.7% (above the 16–19% year‑end target they aim to reach), while capital actions include a new BRL 1bn buyback (≈half executed), BRL 500m dividend in June and ~BRL 2.5bn of distributions announced to date; other targets noted were retail net new money ~BRL 20bn/quarter, fee‑based AUC ~25% today trending toward ~50% in 3–5 years, warehouse duration 3–6 months, and an expectation of a flattish efficiency ratio by year‑end.XP Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.65B | 18.24B | 19.87B | 14.82B | 14.18B | 12.97B |
| Gross Profit | 12.49B | 12.29B | 13.45B | 9.99B | 9.74B | 8.93B |
| EBITDA | 6.31B | 6.25B | 6.92B | 4.73B | 4.20B | 4.35B |
| Net Income | 5.17B | 5.07B | 5.18B | 3.84B | 3.71B | 3.73B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 409.23B | 396.53B | 347.46B | 249.04B | 192.03B | 139.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.68B | 10.35B | 74.91B | 54.41B | 41.30B | 36.22B |
| Total Debt | 89.50B | 85.30B | 115.13B | 68.56B | 35.52B | 28.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 384.81B | 372.98B | 327.41B | 229.59B | 174.99B | 124.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.41B | 23.55B | 20.04B | 19.45B | 17.04B | 14.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 15.05B | 11.84B | 10.85B | 7.93B | 1.68B | -4.37B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 15.42B | 12.04B | 11.18B | 8.13B | 1.80B | -4.02B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.99B | -715.97M | -1.67B | 538.81M | -371.28M | -1.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.05B | -4.93B | -5.78B | -4.39B | -200.30M | 6.64B |
XP Technical Analysis
Negative
21.10
Price Trends
18.94
Negative
19.20
Negative
18.42
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.62
Positive
41.17
Neutral
36.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.10, above the 50-day MA of 18.94, and above the 200-day MA of 18.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XP.
XP Risk Analysis
XP disclosed 83 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XP reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
XP Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $13.30B | 9.65 | 41.05% | 0.95% | 47.30% | 68.64% | |
76 Outperform | $5.74B | 19.90 | 21.56% | 1.63% | 30.99% | 32.50% | |
74 Outperform | $11.14B | 7.56 | 15.14% | 1.43% | 9.07% | 45.94% | |
73 Outperform | $4.66B | 18.69 | 24.27% | 1.66% | 7.85% | 46.95% | |
68 Neutral | $8.90B | 9.94 | 22.01% | 1.10% | 10.28% | 17.87% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $8.54B | 23.92 | 0.21% | ― | -8.86% | -98.41% |
* Financial Sector Average
XP
XP
17.14
-2.13
-11.06%
EVR
Evercore Partners
342.53
112.78
49.09%
MKTX
Marketaxess Holdings
130.94
-79.78
-37.86%
PIPR
Piper Sandler
79.07
17.85
29.16%
SF
Stifel Financial
70.63
8.68
14.02%
FRHC
Freedom Holding
142.11
-24.59
-14.75%
XP Corporate Events
XP Inc. Files Reviewed Q1 2026 Interim Financial Statements Showing Asset Growth
May 18, 2026
XP Inc. disclosed unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the three-month period ended March 31, 2026, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on May 18, 2026. The filing shows total assets of about R$414.3...
XP Inc. Declares Cash Dividend and Launches R$1 Billion Share Buyback
May 18, 2026
XP Inc., a Brazilian technology-driven investment platform, provides low-fee financial products and advisory services to a wide range of retail, affluent, institutional and international clients. The company operates an open architecture marketpla...
XP Inc. Delivers Solid Year-on-Year Growth in First-Quarter 2026 Results
May 18, 2026
On May 18, 2026, XP Inc. reported first-quarter 2026 results showing solid year-on-year growth but softer sequential performance as markets normalized after a strong year-end. Total client assets reached R$1.5 trillion, up 15% year-on-year, suppor...
XP Inc. Names New CFO as Part of Planned Leadership Transition
May 18, 2026
On May 18, 2026, XP Inc. announced a planned succession in its finance leadership, appointing Gustavo Alejo Viviani as Chief Financial Officer effective August 3, 2026. Alejo, a seasoned banking executive with more than two decades at Santander Br...
XP Inc. Calls May 29 AGM to Approve 2025 Results and Refresh Board
May 6, 2026
XP Inc. has convened its 2026 Annual General Meeting of shareholders for May 29, 2026, to be held both virtually and at its São Paulo offices, with shareholders of record as of April 28, 2026 eligible to participate and vote. The agenda inclu...
XP Inc. Posts Higher Revenue and Profit on Expanding Client Assets Through September 2025
Feb 23, 2026
XP Inc. reported that for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total client assets on its platform reached R$1.43 trillion, up from R$1.27 trillion a year earlier, after it also began including institutional client assets in this metric. The ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.