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XP
(NASDAQ:XP)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▲(4.85% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/19/26
XP scores positively on fundamentals and value: strong profitability and cash generation, plus an attractive low P/E and a dividend. Earnings call tone supports the outlook with reiterated growth targets, strong asset gathering, and active capital returns, but mark-to-market impacts and weaker primary markets add risk. The largest drag is technicals, with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD signaling weak near-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Strong client asset gathering and inflows
Rapid asset gathering and strong net inflows expand the platform’s recurring fee base, deepen client relationships and reinforce scale advantages. Continued growth in assets under custody can support durable revenue expansion even as individual trading activity fluctuates.
Negative Factors
High leverage limits financial flexibility
Elevated leverage increases sensitivity to funding conditions, credit losses and market disruption. Although profitability is strong, substantial debt can constrain strategic flexibility and require closer capital management as XP expands lending and corporate activities.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong client asset gathering and inflows
Rapid asset gathering and strong net inflows expand the platform’s recurring fee base, deepen client relationships and reinforce scale advantages. Continued growth in assets under custody can support durable revenue expansion even as individual trading activity fluctuates.
Read all positive factors
XP (XP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.27B
Dividend Yield2.26%
Average Volume (3M)5.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth16.84%
EPS Growth20.39%
CountryUS
Employees8,069
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.27
Shares Outstanding415,263,060
10 Day Avg. Volume3,877,499
30 Day Avg. Volume5,334,294
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.48
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)2.59
P/FCF Ratio3.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.00Price Target Upside37.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)10.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.18B
XP Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XP Inc. provides financial products and services in Brazil. The company operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market comprising brokerage securities, fixed income securities, mutu...
How the Company Makes Money
XP primarily makes money by earning fees and commissions associated with investing and financial intermediation on its platform. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Brokerage and trading-related revenue: commissions and/or spreads tied to c...
XP Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 17, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented solid business momentum: strong client asset growth (+17% YoY), robust net new money ($28bn), meaningful top-line and EBT expansion (+8% and +15% YoY respectively), exceptional corporate segment performance (+117% YoY), plus disciplined capital returns (buybacks, dividends, share cancellation) and a healthy capital ratio (20.3%). Offsetting these positives were material mark-to-market losses (~BRL 420m H1), a weak primary debt market and a shift toward lower-fee daily liquidity fixed income products that compressed fee margins, alongside rising RWAs and near-term seasonal cost headwinds. On balance the positives – growth, profitability expansion, strong corporate and retail underlying momentum, and active capital management – outweigh the challenges, though management highlighted risks tied to market volatility and mix shifts.Positive Updates
Client Assets and Growth
Total client assets (AUM + AUA) reached $2.2 trillion, up 17% year-over-year, reflecting strong asset gathering and platform scale.
Negative Updates
Mark-to-Market Impacts on Revenues
Mark-to-market and related investment banking/warehousing impacts reduced retail/issuer-related revenues by roughly BRL 420 million in H1 (approx. BRL 150-160 million in Q2), materially depressing reported growth.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Client Assets and Growth
Total client assets (AUM + AUA) reached $2.2 trillion, up 17% year-over-year, reflecting strong asset gathering and platform scale.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated forward guidance for double‑digit growth through 2026 and a target of roughly $20 billion in retail net new money per quarter (Q2 met that target; total net new money in Q2 was $28 billion: $20B retail, $8B corporate/institutional), and said it expects the fixed‑income pipeline to normalize and convert into primary offerings in coming quarters supporting issuer‑services recovery (Q3 better than Q2 but still softer than 2025). Management intends to operate toward a Basel target range of 16–19% (currently 20.3% Basel, CET1 17.1%), pursue capital returns (BRL 1.0B buyback executed, BRL 1.0B open, BRL 500M dividends—~BRL 2.5B total announced—and cancellation of ~11.8M shares, ~2.3% outstanding), and expects payout >50% for the year; operationally it targets a flattish efficiency ratio year‑over‑year (LTM 34.3%, +30 bps YoY) while anticipating typical H2 effects (bonuses, Expert event) and continued strength in corporate revenues. Excluding mark‑to‑market impacts (≈BRL 420M in H1; ≈BRL 150–160M in Q2), retail revenues would have grown ~15% in H1, underscoring the underlying momentum.XP Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.27B | 18.24B | 19.87B | 14.82B | 14.18B | 12.97B |
| Gross Profit | 12.85B | 12.29B | 13.45B | 9.99B | 9.74B | 8.93B |
| EBITDA | 6.56B | 6.25B | 6.92B | 4.73B | 4.20B | 4.35B |
| Net Income | 5.32B | 5.07B | 5.18B | 3.84B | 3.71B | 3.73B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 407.40B | 396.53B | 347.46B | 249.04B | 192.03B | 139.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.97B | 10.35B | 74.91B | 54.41B | 41.30B | 36.22B |
| Total Debt | 92.75B | 85.30B | 115.13B | 68.56B | 35.52B | 28.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 382.60B | 372.98B | 327.41B | 229.59B | 174.99B | 124.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.79B | 23.55B | 20.04B | 19.45B | 17.04B | 14.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 21.52B | 11.84B | 10.85B | 7.93B | 1.68B | -4.37B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 21.83B | 12.04B | 11.18B | 8.13B | 1.80B | -4.02B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.20B | -715.97M | -1.67B | 538.81M | -371.28M | -1.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.64B | -4.93B | -5.78B | -4.39B | -200.30M | 6.64B |
XP Technical Analysis
Positive
16.69
Price Trends
16.29
Positive
17.22
Negative
17.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Negative
55.58
Neutral
69.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.38, above the 50-day MA of 16.29, and below the 200-day MA of 17.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XP.
XP Risk Analysis
XP disclosed 83 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XP reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
XP Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $12.06B | 8.91 | 16.07% | 1.79% | 11.04% | 60.96% | |
76 Outperform | $11.04B | 15.20 | 53.00% | 1.00% | 45.68% | 59.92% | |
74 Outperform | $5.15B | 16.48 | 22.90% | 2.59% | 32.10% | 40.51% | |
73 Outperform | $5.70B | 19.09 | 24.74% | 2.64% | 3.65% | 42.71% | |
69 Neutral | $8.27B | 8.41 | 22.05% | 2.28% | 16.84% | 20.39% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
53 Neutral | $10.44B | 66.40 | 10.96% | ― | 8.18% | 81.30% |
* Financial Sector Average
XP
XP
16.81
0.72
4.49%
EVR
Evercore Partners
291.89
-24.67
-7.79%
MKTX
Marketaxess Holdings
162.11
-23.04
-12.45%
PIPR
Piper Sandler
75.02
-6.97
-8.50%
SF
Stifel Financial
80.96
6.04
8.07%
FRHC
Freedom Holding
170.66
-3.39
-1.95%
XP Corporate Events
XP Inc. Posts Higher H1 2026 Assets in Unaudited Interim Filing
Aug 17, 2026
XP Inc. reported unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, with total assets rising to 408.0 billion Brazilian reais from 396.5 billion reais at year-end 2025. The filing, made ...
XP Inc. Cancels 2.3% of Treasury Class A Shares to Tighten Float
Aug 17, 2026
XP Inc., a Brazilian technology-driven provider of low-fee financial products and advisory services, serves retail, high-net-worth, international, corporate and institutional clients through an open investment platform. Its offering spans more tha...
XP Inc. Posts Solid Growth and Diversification in Second-Quarter 2026 Results
Aug 17, 2026
On August 17, 2026, XP Inc. reported second-quarter 2026 results showing solid expansion across its Brazilian financial platform, with client assets reaching R$1.5 trillion, up 12% year-on-year, and net inflows accelerating to R$28 billion. Operat...
XP Inc. Confirms All Resolutions Approved at May 29, 2026 Annual General Meeting
May 29, 2026
XP Inc., a leading Brazilian technology-driven financial services platform that offers low-fee advisory and access to more than 800 investment products via an open architecture model, continues to position itself as a challenger to traditional ban...
XP Inc. Reshapes Board Slate and Committees Ahead of May 29, 2026 AGM
May 26, 2026
XP Inc. has adjusted the agenda for its 2026 annual general meeting of shareholders, scheduled for May 29, 2026, after director Oscar Rodriguez Herrero withdrew his candidacy for re-election and notified the board he will resign effective the meet...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.