XP (XP)
NASDAQ:XP
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XP
(NASDAQ:XP)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▼(-7.58% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (strong profitability and decent cash conversion, with improved leverage) tempered by volatility and a notable 2025 revenue decline. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, and valuation looks reasonable on a moderate P/E. Earnings call commentary is broadly constructive with maintained 2026 guidance, but execution and market-condition risks remain meaningful.
Positive Factors
Scale of Client Assets
Crossing BRL 2.1 trillion in client assets establishes durable scale that supports recurring fee revenue, adviser network effects and product distribution. A larger AUC pool raises structural cross-sell potential, smooths fee generation versus trading volatility and enhances long‑term monetization of the platform.
Negative Factors
Revenue Volatility
A pronounced 2025 top‑line decline after prior expansion underscores inconsistent revenue drivers and creates execution risk versus ambitious 2026 targets. Persistent top‑line volatility complicates margin leverage plans, capital return pacing and makes multi‑quarter growth forecasting and investment decisions more uncertain.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale of Client Assets
Crossing BRL 2.1 trillion in client assets establishes durable scale that supports recurring fee revenue, adviser network effects and product distribution. A larger AUC pool raises structural cross-sell potential, smooths fee generation versus trading volatility and enhances long‑term monetization of the platform.
Read all positive factors
XP (XP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.75B
Dividend Yield1.1%
Average Volume (3M)5.78M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth3.16%
EPS Growth13.50%
CountryUS
Employees6,834
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.81
Shares Outstanding423,566,440
10 Day Avg. Volume5,514,699
30 Day Avg. Volume5,776,199
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.49
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)2.59
P/FCF Ratio3.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap12.66
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.00Price Target Upside23.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)10.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.88B
XP Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XP Inc. provides financial products and services in Brazil. It offers securities brokerage, private pension plans, commercial, and investment banking products, such as loan operations and transactions in the foreign exchange markets and deposits; ...
How the Company Makes Money
XP primarily earns revenue from (1) commissions and trading-related fees generated when clients transact through its brokerage and trading platforms (e.g., equities and other listed products), including exchange-related and execution services wher...
XP Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operating and financial outcomes — AUC crossing BRL 2.1 trillion, revenue and earnings growth, ROE expansion, record corporate/issuer services results, continued product and cross-sell momentum, and disciplined capital returns — reflecting a resilient and maturing franchise. At the same time, management acknowledged tangible near-term headwinds: retail margin pressure and SMB redemptions impacting net new money, a temporary NPS decline tied to isolated events, higher tax expense from revenue mix, and execution risk to meet ambitious 2026 revenue guidance given current market dynamics (foreign-led rallies, retail volumes lagging). Overall, positives in scale, profitability, capital strength and strategic investments dominate, though several operational and market risks warrant monitoring in early 2026.Positive Updates
Total Client Assets Cross BRL 2 Trillion
Total client assets (AUC/AUM/AUA) reached ~BRL 2.1 trillion in 4Q25, representing 22% year-over-year growth and marking the milestone of crossing BRL 2 trillion.
Negative Updates
Net New Money Pressure from SMBs
Retail net new money was affected by small & medium enterprise dynamics: in 4Q25 SMBs withdrew BRL 3 billion. Total net new money in the quarter was BRL 32 billion (BRL 20 billion retail, BRL 12 billion corporate). Management expects retail net new money of ~BRL 20 billion per quarter but acknowledges a challenging environment for 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Total Client Assets Cross BRL 2 Trillion
Total client assets (AUC/AUM/AUA) reached ~BRL 2.1 trillion in 4Q25, representing 22% year-over-year growth and marking the milestone of crossing BRL 2 trillion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said it is keeping 2026 guidance intact, targeting gross revenues of BRL 22.8–26.8 billion (about a 17% y/y increase at the low end) and expecting 2026 to be stronger than 2025; they flagged retail net new money of ~BRL 20 billion per quarter, an efficiency ratio broadly in line with 2025’s 34.7%, continued expansion of financial margin and adjusted EBT margin (4Q25 adjusted EBT margin 31.3%, FY25 29.6%), and net income growth that should outpace RWA (RWA BRL 119 billion, +13% y/y); capital and solvency targets include moving BIS toward a 19%–16% target range by year‑end from 20.4% (CET1 17.3%), continued capital returns (BRL 2.4 billion returned in 2025, BRL 1 billion buyback program open, ~15% payout historically), and sustaining EPS and ROAE momentum (adjusted EPS FY25 BRL 9.81, +18% y/y; Q4 BRL 2.56, +15% y/y; ROAE 23.9%, +94 bps).XP Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 18.24B | 19.87B | 14.82B | 14.18B | 12.97B |
| Gross Profit | 12.29B | 13.45B | 9.99B | 9.74B | 8.93B |
| EBITDA | 6.25B | 6.92B | 4.73B | 4.20B | 4.35B |
| Net Income | 5.07B | 5.18B | 3.84B | 3.71B | 3.73B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 396.53B | 347.46B | 249.04B | 192.03B | 139.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.35B | 74.91B | 54.41B | 41.30B | 36.22B |
| Total Debt | 85.30B | 115.13B | 68.56B | 35.52B | 28.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 372.98B | 327.41B | 229.59B | 174.99B | 124.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.55B | 20.04B | 19.45B | 17.04B | 14.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.84B | 10.85B | 7.93B | 1.68B | -4.37B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.04B | 11.18B | 8.13B | 1.80B | -4.02B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -715.97M | -1.67B | 538.81M | -371.28M | -1.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.93B | -5.78B | -4.39B | -200.30M | 6.64B |
XP Technical Analysis
Positive
21.10
Price Trends
19.88
Positive
18.91
Positive
18.26
Positive
Market Momentum
0.42
Negative
60.19
Neutral
81.16
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.44, above the 50-day MA of 19.88, and above the 200-day MA of 18.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XP.
XP Risk Analysis
XP disclosed 83 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XP reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
XP Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $12.64B | 9.65 | 42.67% | 0.95% | 47.30% | 68.64% | |
75 Outperform | $5.51B | 18.08 | 18.76% | 1.66% | 3.74% | -8.43% | |
75 Outperform | $5.54B | 19.90 | 22.08% | 1.63% | 31.21% | 32.50% | |
74 Outperform | $11.74B | 7.56 | 15.43% | 1.43% | 9.07% | 45.94% | |
69 Neutral | $9.75B | 8.86 | 22.53% | 1.10% | 3.16% | 13.50% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $8.61B | 23.92 | 0.21% | ― | -8.86% | -98.41% |
* Financial Sector Average
XP
XP
18.50
2.77
17.61%
EVR
Evercore Partners
319.05
109.58
52.31%
MKTX
Marketaxess Holdings
154.89
-68.24
-30.58%
PIPR
Piper Sandler
77.67
17.59
29.28%
SF
Stifel Financial
76.36
18.02
30.88%
FRHC
Freedom Holding
140.64
-8.09
-5.44%
XP Corporate Events
XP Inc. Posts Higher Revenue and Profit on Expanding Client Assets Through September 2025
Feb 23, 2026
XP Inc. reported that for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total client assets on its platform reached R$1.43 trillion, up from R$1.27 trillion a year earlier, after it also began including institutional client assets in this metric. The ...
XP Inc. Posts Solid 4Q25 Results as Assets Under Custody Hit R$1.5 Trillion
Feb 12, 2026
XP Inc., a leading Brazilian tech-enabled investment platform, reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 12, 2026, highlighting its client-centric, open-architecture model and the evolution of its advisor network into full...
XP Inc. Reshapes Control Structure as New Executives Join XP Control LLC
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, XP Inc. announced a planned realignment of ownership interests in XP Control LLC, its controlling entity, as part of a leadership transition. Senior executives Thiago Maffra and José Berenguer are expected to become voti...
XP Inc. Receives Clean Audit Opinion on 2025 IFRS Consolidated Results
Feb 12, 2026
XP Inc. disclosed its audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, with PricewaterhouseCoopers issuing an unqualified opinion that the accounts fairly present the group’s financial position and performance ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.