Stifel Financial (SF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.51B
• Dividend Yield: 1.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.31
• Revenue Growth: 7.54%
• EPS Growth: 2.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,887
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 2.63
• Shares Outstanding: 101,828,330
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,209,781
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,100,519
• PEG Ratio: -3.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.04
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.64
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.12
• 1Y Price Target: $147.50
• Price Target Upside: 28.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.24B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $124.00 ▲(7.80% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial strength (notably improved leverage and steady profitability) and a positive earnings outlook with supportive 2026 guidance and capital strength. These are partially offset by weak near-term technical trends (downtrend/negative momentum) and only mid-range valuation support, alongside margin compression and choppy cash-flow history.

Positive Factors

Improved Leverage

A materially lower debt-to-equity ratio strengthens financial flexibility and reduces balance-sheet risk. With leverage down to ~0.14, Stifel can absorb capital-market volatility, support organic investments, maintain dividend/share buybacks, and pursue strategic M&A without immediate refinancing pressure.

Scale in Wealth Management

Large, growing fee-based assets and record wealth revenue produce stable, recurring fee streams that reduce earnings cyclicality. The sizable AUM and sustained adviser recruiting enhance client retention and long-term fee growth, underpinning predictable revenue and margin resilience versus transaction-only peers.

Capital Strength & Clear Guidance

Excess regulatory capital and active capital returns signal a strong capital cushion and disciplined capital allocation. Coupled with 2026 guidance for higher net revenue and NII and explicit operating-leverage targets, this supports sustainable earnings improvement and optionality for strategic investments.

Negative Factors

Margin Compression

A multi-year decline in net margins reduces the firm's earnings power and leaves profitability more sensitive to revenue swings. Sustained compression implies either higher structural costs or weaker high-margin revenue mix, limiting free cash generation and requiring persistent operating leverage to restore prior returns.

Choppy Free Cash Flow

Volatile free cash flow undermines predictability for dividends, buybacks, and debt servicing. Even with strong 2025 absolute cash conversion, an ~18% decline and historical swings increase financing and allocation uncertainty, making capital returns and reinvestment plans more contingent on favorable market conditions.

Capital-Markets Revenue Sensitivity

Heavy exposure to transaction-driven and fixed-income activity makes revenues cyclically sensitive to market volatility. The planned removal of ~$100M in prior-year revenue from business exits creates a structural near-term top-line headwind, requiring offsetting growth or margin gains to sustain earnings levels.

Stifel Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Stifel Financial Corp., a financial services and bank holding company, provides retail and institutional wealth management, and investment banking services to individual investors, corporations, municipalities, and institutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, and Canada. It operates in three segments: Global Wealth Management, Institutional Group, and Other. The company provides private client services, including securities transaction and financial planning services; institutional equity and fixed income sales, trading and research, and municipal finance services; investment banking services, such as mergers and acquisitions, public offerings, and private placements; and retail and commercial banking services comprising personal and commercial lending programs, as well as deposit accounts. It also participates in and manages underwritings for corporate and public finance; and offers financial advisory and securities brokerage services. The company was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Stifel Financial generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from its Wealth Management segment, which earns fees from investment advisory services, commissions on trades, and management fees from assets under management. The Institutional Group contributes significantly to revenue through investment banking services, including underwriting, advisory fees from mergers and acquisitions, and commissions from institutional brokerage activities. Additionally, Stifel Bank & Trust generates income through interest on loans and fees for banking services. The company's diversified revenue model allows it to leverage various market conditions and client needs, enhancing its financial stability. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and a strong network of financial advisors further contribute to Stifel's earnings, enabling it to attract a broad client base and expand its service offerings.

Stifel Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid overall: improved balance-sheet leverage in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.14) and healthy profitability/ROE (~11.4%). Offsetting this, net margins have compressed meaningfully from 2021–2022 levels and 2025 earnings dipped vs. 2024 despite slightly higher revenue, while free cash flow fell ~18% and has been historically volatile.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded over the cycle, with 2025 up ~2.9% after modest growth in 2024, but growth has been uneven versus earlier years. Profitability remains solid (2025 net margin ~10.9%), though margins have compressed meaningfully from 2021–2022 levels (net margin ~17.5% in 2021 and ~14.6% in 2022), and 2025 earnings dipped versus 2024 despite higher revenue—signaling some operating/market-driven pressure.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved substantially in 2025, with debt-to-equity falling to ~0.14 from ~0.49 in 2024, which strengthens financial flexibility. Equity has grown steadily over time, and returns on equity remain healthy (~11.4% in 2025). The main weakness is variability in leverage in prior years (mid-range debt-to-equity in 2021–2024), which suggests capital structure can shift with business conditions.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a positive in 2025, with operating cash flow of ~$1.12B and free cash flow matching it, and free cash flow equaling net income (strong earnings-to-cash conversion). However, free cash flow declined ~18% in 2025, and cash flow has been choppy historically (large swings in free cash flow growth across years), which adds volatility risk despite the strong latest-year absolute level.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.30B	5.89B	5.10B	4.54B	4.72B
Gross Profit	5.45B	4.88B	4.27B	4.30B	4.69B
EBITDA	933.50M	1.01B	788.15M	955.33M	1.13B
Net Income	683.78M	731.38M	522.54M	662.15M	824.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	41.27B	39.90B	37.73B	37.20B	34.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.85B	3.00B	3.68B	3.84B	4.08B
Total Debt	855.90M	2.77B	2.92B	1.84B	2.32B
Total Liabilities	35.29B	34.21B	32.43B	31.87B	29.01B
Stockholders Equity	5.98B	5.69B	5.29B	5.33B	5.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.12B	416.65M	447.35M	1.08B	683.92M
Operating Cash Flow	1.12B	490.44M	499.33M	1.16B	872.09M
Investing Cash Flow	-35.19M	-2.31B	1.04B	-4.32B	-6.97B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	980.10M	-254.58M	3.19B	5.79B

Stifel Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 115.03
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 115.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 122.31, below the 50-day MA of 126.17, and above the 200-day MA of 114.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SF.

Stifel Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SF	70 Outperform	$11.51B	19.15	11.72%	1.43%	7.54%	2.73%
EVR	70 Outperform	$12.41B	22.30	31.66%	0.95%	27.00%	63.47%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HLI	64 Neutral	$11.56B	25.47	20.47%	1.33%	20.99%	25.02%
PIPR	62 Neutral	$5.49B	19.60	21.65%	1.63%	12.77%	36.43%
LAZ	60 Neutral	$4.78B	21.25	30.59%	4.06%	1.58%	1.93%
JEF	59 Neutral	$10.39B	17.76	6.13%	2.52%	-5.41%	25.28%

Stifel Financial Corporate Events

Stifel Financial Expands Credit Facility with New Agreement

On February 4, 2026, Stifel Financial Corp. and its brokerage subsidiary Stifel Nicolaus & Company entered into an amended and restated unsecured revolving credit agreement with a lender syndicate led by Bank of America, replacing and terminating commitments under their prior 2023 facility. The new agreement extends the maturity to February 4, 2031, provides up to $1.0 billion in committed borrowing capacity at variable rates tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, and will be used for working capital, short-term operating needs, and general corporate purposes, subject to a series of financial and regulatory covenants and customary default provisions that can trigger acceleration of obligations and termination of lending commitments if breached.

The most recent analyst rating on (SF) stock is a Hold with a $136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stifel Financial stock, see the SF Stock Forecast page.

Stifel Financial Announces Stock Split and Dividend Increase

On January 28, 2026, Stifel Financial reported record full-year 2025 net revenues of $5.53 billion, up from $4.97 billion in 2024, driven by higher investment banking, asset management, transactional revenues, and net interest income, while GAAP net income to common shareholders declined to $646.5 million from $694.1 million due in part to elevated legal provisions. Fourth-quarter 2025 results also set a quarterly revenue record at $1.56 billion, with GAAP net income of $255.0 million and strong non-GAAP profitability metrics, including a 22.3% pre-tax margin and an annualized return on average tangible common equity of 31.1%, underscoring robust performance despite legal costs. The board approved an 11% increase in the common stock dividend starting in the first quarter of 2026 and, on January 26, 2026, declared a three-for-two stock split in the form of a 50% stock dividend for shareholders of record as of February 12, 2026, to be distributed on February 26, 2026, signaling management’s confidence and offering incremental benefits to shareholders through enhanced liquidity and higher cash returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (SF) stock is a Hold with a $138.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stifel Financial stock, see the SF Stock Forecast page.

Stifel Financial Reports Record Client Assets and Deposits

On December 18, 2025, Stifel Financial reported selected operating results as of November 30, 2025, highlighting record total client assets of $553.6 billion, up 8% year over year, and record fee-based client assets of $224.7 billion, up 14%, driven by strong advisor recruiting and market gains. Client money market and insured product balances rose 1% from October as higher Sweep balances offset declines in Smart Rate, while Treasury deposits surged 9% month over month and 96% from a year earlier, underscoring accelerating deposit growth; management noted elevated activity in the Institutional Group and, despite disruption from the government shutdown, indicated expectations for a strong fourth quarter, signaling solid operational momentum and resilient client engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (SF) stock is a Buy with a $141.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stifel Financial stock, see the SF Stock Forecast page.