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Stifel Financial Corp (SF)
NYSE:SF
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Stifel Financial (SF) AI Stock Analysis

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SF

Stifel Financial

(NYSE:SF)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$124.00
▲(10.04%Upside)
Stifel Financial's overall stock score is driven by robust technical analysis indicating positive momentum and recent positive corporate events showcasing asset growth. However, financial performance concerns and valuation challenges slightly dampen the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Client Assets
Client assets increased to $501B, reflecting a rise in equity market levels and successful recruiting efforts.
Market Appetite
SF is seeing growing appetite for bank M&A and continues to expect a strong year for the FIG vertical, with deals announced now still able to close before year-end.
Recruitment Efforts
SF is seeing early success in its approach to recruitment, having added 7 experienced advisors with significant client assets.
Negative Factors
Client Money Markets
Client money markets and insured product balances experienced a 5% m/m decline, greater than prior years and peers' cash trends.
Investment Banking Earnings
Investment banking guidance is below expectations, suggesting a potential impact on earnings per share.
Investment Banking Revenue
Investment banking guidance indicates a 10% decline in revenue compared to the previous year, partly due to market volatility.

Stifel Financial (SF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Stifel Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionStifel Financial Corp., a financial services and bank holding company, provides retail and institutional wealth management, and investment banking services to individual investors, corporations, municipalities, and institutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, and Canada. It operates in three segments: Global Wealth Management, Institutional Group, and Other. The company provides private client services, including securities transaction and financial planning services; institutional equity and fixed income sales, trading and research, and municipal finance services; investment banking services, such as mergers and acquisitions, public offerings, and private placements; and retail and commercial banking services comprising personal and commercial lending programs, as well as deposit accounts. It also participates in and manages underwritings for corporate and public finance; and offers financial advisory and securities brokerage services. The company was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
How the Company Makes MoneyStifel Financial makes money through a combination of fee-based and commission-based revenue streams. In its Global Wealth Management segment, the company generates revenue by providing investment advisory services, earning management and performance fees based on client assets under management. Additionally, it makes money through brokerage commissions on the trading of securities for individual and institutional clients. The Institutional Group segment contributes to revenue through underwriting fees, advisory fees, and trading gains related to investment banking services, including mergers and acquisitions, capital raising, and debt and equity underwriting. Key partnerships with financial institutions and investment managers also bolster Stifel's earnings by expanding its client base and service offerings.

Stifel Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 31.55%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights Stifel's record first quarter revenue and strong performance in asset management and advisory services. However, these achievements are offset by a significant legal charge, market volatility, and declines in client assets and net interest income. While there is optimism about long-term growth, short-term challenges persist.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record First Quarter Revenue
Stifel Financial generated $1.3 billion in net revenue during the first quarter, marking the highest first quarter revenue and third strongest quarter overall.
Asset Management Revenue Growth
Asset management revenue reached a record high, up 11% year-over-year, reflecting organic growth and market appreciation.
Strong Performance in Advisory and Capital Raising
Investment banking revenues rose 11%, driven by increases in both capital raising and advisory.
Successful Advisor Recruiting
Added 52 total advisors, including nine experienced advisors with trailing 12-month production of $12 million.
Positive Momentum in Financials Vertical
Strong performance in the financials vertical, with a growing appetite for bank M&A.
Negative Updates
Significant Legal Charge Impact
Legal accrual totaled $180 million for the quarter, resulting in a $1.16 negative impact on EPS.
Market Volatility and Investor Confidence
Market conditions, including tariffs, global capital flow uncertainty, and monetary policy disagreements, have weighed on investor confidence and slowed activity.
Decline in Client Assets
Ended the quarter with fee-based assets of $190 billion and total client assets of $486 billion, with sequential declines due to weaker equity markets and modest asset outflows.
Lower Net Interest Income
Net interest income was 3% below The Street estimate due to lower NIM driven by lower-than-expected loan growth.
Company Guidance
During the Stifel Financial First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, guidance focused on the firm's ability to navigate volatile market conditions, while achieving strong results in several areas. Stifel reported $1.3 billion in net revenue, marking its highest first quarter revenue and the third strongest quarter overall, with a significant 11% year-over-year increase in operating EPS to $1.65. The Global Wealth Management segment saw record asset management revenue, up 11%, while advisory and transactional revenue in Institutional Equities remained robust. Despite a significant $180 million legal charge impacting GAAP earnings, the firm's operating pre-tax margin exceeded 20%. The compensation ratio was 58%, aligning with the high end of annual guidance. The firm maintained a conservative market outlook, with the S&P 500 forecasted at 5,500, and despite market challenges, emphasized its strong recruiting pipeline and strategic flexibility in capital allocation, hinting at potential focus shifts towards share repurchases amidst moderated loan growth.

Stifel Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Stifel Financial shows strong revenue growth and stable profitability, evidenced by a 38.8% increase in revenue and a net profit margin of 12.3%. The balance sheet indicates reduced leverage and a solid equity base. However, the absence of EBIT and EBITDA for 2024 limits comprehensive profitability analysis. Cash flow is positive, but there's room for improvement in cash flow efficiency.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Stifel Financial has demonstrated a strong revenue growth with a significant increase from $4.29 billion in 2023 to $5.95 billion in 2024, reflecting a robust growth rate of 38.8%. The gross profit margin improved from 79.8% in 2023 to 51% in 2024, but there was no EBIT or EBITDA reported for 2024, which limits profitability analysis. The net profit margin in 2024 was 12.3%, up from 12.2% in 2023, indicating stable profitability.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The company maintains a strong equity position with a steady increase in stockholders' equity from $5.29 billion in 2023 to $5.69 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio decreased from 0.22 in 2023 to 0.15 in 2024, reflecting reduced leverage. The equity ratio also improved from 14% in 2023 to 14.3% in 2024, suggesting a stable capital structure.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Stifel Financial's free cash flow grew from $447.35 million in 2023 to $490.44 million in 2024, representing a growth rate of 9.6%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was 0.67 in 2024, down from 0.95 in 2023, indicating less cash generation from operations relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio improved slightly, suggesting effective cash management.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.95B5.10B4.54B4.68B3.70B
Gross Profit3.04B4.27B4.33B1.33B849.82M
EBITDA1.18B788.15M955.33M1.24B0.00
Net Income731.38M522.54M662.15M824.86M503.47M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets39.90B37.73B37.20B34.05B26.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.00B3.36B1.67B4.08B4.51B
Total Debt1.54B2.00B1.17B1.17B1.17B
Total Liabilities34.21B32.43B31.87B29.01B22.37B
Stockholders Equity5.69B5.29B5.33B5.03B4.24B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow416.65M447.35M1.08B683.92M1.59B
Operating Cash Flow490.44M499.33M1.16B872.09M1.66B
Investing Cash Flow-2.31B923.96M-4.32B-6.97B-1.69B
Financing Cash Flow980.10M-254.58M3.19B5.79B1.20B

Stifel Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price112.69
Price Trends
50DMA
101.28
Positive
100DMA
95.86
Positive
200DMA
101.75
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.02
Positive
RSI
70.46
Negative
STOCH
89.80
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 112.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.44, above the 50-day MA of 101.28, and above the 200-day MA of 101.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 70.46 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.80 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SF.

Stifel Financial Risk Analysis

Stifel Financial disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stifel Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Stifel Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$5.14B19.1750.41%3.65%10.40%91.75%
77
Outperform
$13.78B33.9019.93%1.18%24.88%39.55%
75
Outperform
$11.40B21.0811.48%1.59%12.85%20.21%
73
Outperform
$11.62B28.7829.73%1.08%26.88%68.65%
70
Neutral
$5.58B27.8917.59%1.78%10.27%88.77%
68
Neutral
$17.10B11.199.70%3.58%11.11%-4.55%
68
Neutral
$11.76B21.625.75%2.60%1.00%46.98%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SF
Stifel Financial
112.69
27.23
31.86%
EVR
Evercore Partners
301.08
59.00
24.37%
JEF
Jefferies
57.66
1.87
3.35%
LAZ
Lazard
54.85
9.11
19.92%
PIPR
Piper Sandler
314.37
46.11
17.19%
HLI
Houlihan Lokey
195.93
50.13
34.38%

Stifel Financial Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Stifel Financial Reports May 2025 Operating Results
Neutral
Jun 26, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Stifel Financial Corp. reported its operating results for May 31, 2025, highlighting a 3% increase in total client assets and a 4% rise in fee-based assets due to recruiting and market appreciation. Despite a slight decline in client money market and insured product levels, investment banking activity showed signs of recovery after being affected by market volatility in April, with expectations of a 10% decrease in investment banking revenue for the quarter compared to the same period in 2024.

The most recent analyst rating on (SF) stock is a Hold with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stifel Financial stock, see the SF Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Stifel Financial Announces Co-President Victor Nesi’s Retirement
Neutral
Jun 11, 2025

On June 6, 2025, Stifel Financial Corp. announced the retirement of Victor Nesi, Co-President and Head of the Institutional Group, effective July 1, 2025. Nesi, who has been with the company since 2009, will join the Board of Directors upon his retirement. Under his leadership, the Institutional Group saw significant growth, with revenues increasing from $391 million in 2008 to $2.2 billion in 2021. His strategic vision and leadership have positioned the group for continued success, and he leaves behind a seasoned leadership team to carry forward the firm’s culture and momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (SF) stock is a Hold with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stifel Financial stock, see the SF Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Stifel Financial Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 4, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Stifel Financial Corp. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where eleven directors were elected to serve until the 2026 annual meeting. Additionally, shareholders approved the executive compensation and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent public accounting firm for 2025. The meeting saw a significant shareholder turnout, with 97,820,030 shares represented, indicating strong engagement in corporate governance matters.

The most recent analyst rating on (SF) stock is a Hold with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stifel Financial stock, see the SF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Stifel Financial Reports April 2025 Asset Growth
Positive
May 22, 2025

On May 22, 2025, Stifel Financial Corp. reported its operating results for April 2025, showing a 7% increase in total client assets and an 11% rise in fee-based assets compared to the previous year, attributed to market appreciation and successful recruitment of financial advisors. Despite significant market volatility, the company maintained stable asset levels month-on-month, while client money market and insured product balances decreased by 5% due to seasonal factors.

The most recent analyst rating on (SF) stock is a Hold with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stifel Financial stock, see the SF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 23, 2025