Stifel Financial (SF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.46B
• Dividend Yield: 1.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.33
• Revenue Growth: 7.54%
• EPS Growth: 2.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,887
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 1.75
• Shares Outstanding: 154,787,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,651,475
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,672,806
• PEG Ratio: -2.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.87
• 1Y Price Target: $147.50
• Price Target Upside: 99.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.24B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $126.00 ▲(70.16% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (notably improved leverage and healthy returns) and a strong, upbeat earnings outlook with clear operating-leverage targets. The main drag is weak technical positioning (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is reasonable but not compelling enough to offset near-term momentum risk.

Positive Factors

Record client assets & fee-based growth

Sustained growth in total and fee‑based client assets increases recurring advisory fee revenue and reduces reliance on transactional spikes. A larger, fee-bearing asset base boosts long‑term revenue stability, cross‑sell potential, and resilience through market cycles, supporting durable cash flow.

Stronger capital and liquidity position

Elevated capital ratios, excess Tier 1 capital and an extended $1.0B revolver materially improve financial flexibility for underwriting, balance‑sheet growth, buybacks and dividends. This buffer supports the firm through capital markets stress and funds strategic investments without urgent capital raises.

Diversified revenue mix with strong wealth and institutional growth

A balanced mix—large, growing wealth management fee streams plus a capable institutional/IB franchise—reduces single‑channel risk. Wealth fees provide steady margins while institutional and IB deliver cyclical upside when markets are active, enhancing long‑term earnings power and scalability.

Negative Factors

Meaningful margin compression

Declining margins versus earlier years indicate structural pressure from higher operating or compensation costs and tougher revenue mix. Sustained margin compression reduces the firm's earnings leverage on revenue growth, constraining reinvestment, capital returns and long‑term profitability resilience.

Choppy cash flow & FCF decline

Material year‑to‑year FCF volatility limits predictability for buybacks, dividends and debt reduction. An ~18% FCF drop despite solid earnings highlights conversion variability; persistent swings complicate capital allocation and increase sensitivity to short‑term funding needs or market shocks.

Revenue headwinds from business exits and trading weakness

Exiting businesses cuts scale and recurring top‑line even if margins may improve. Concurrent weakness in transactional and fixed‑income revenue shows exposure to capital markets cycles; reduced scale plus cyclical trading headwinds can lower structural revenue diversification over medium term.

Stifel Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Stifel Financial Corp., a financial services and bank holding company, provides retail and institutional wealth management, and investment banking services to individual investors, corporations, municipalities, and institutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, and Canada. It operates in three segments: Global Wealth Management, Institutional Group, and Other. The company provides private client services, including securities transaction and financial planning services; institutional equity and fixed income sales, trading and research, and municipal finance services; investment banking services, such as mergers and acquisitions, public offerings, and private placements; and retail and commercial banking services comprising personal and commercial lending programs, as well as deposit accounts. It also participates in and manages underwritings for corporate and public finance; and offers financial advisory and securities brokerage services. The company was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Stifel Financial generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from its Wealth Management segment, which earns fees from investment advisory services, commissions on trades, and management fees from assets under management. The Institutional Group contributes significantly to revenue through investment banking services, including underwriting, advisory fees from mergers and acquisitions, and commissions from institutional brokerage activities. Additionally, Stifel Bank & Trust generates income through interest on loans and fees for banking services. The company's diversified revenue model allows it to leverage various market conditions and client needs, enhancing its financial stability. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and a strong network of financial advisors further contribute to Stifel's earnings, enabling it to attract a broad client base and expand its service offerings.

Stifel Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid, led by a stronger balance sheet (debt-to-equity down sharply in 2025 and healthy ROE). Offsetting that strength are meaningful margin compression versus 2021–2022 and a choppy cash-flow profile, including an ~18% FCF decline in 2025 despite strong earnings-to-cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded over the cycle, with 2025 up ~2.9% after modest growth in 2024, but growth has been uneven versus earlier years. Profitability remains solid (2025 net margin ~10.9%), though margins have compressed meaningfully from 2021–2022 levels (net margin ~17.5% in 2021 and ~14.6% in 2022), and 2025 earnings dipped versus 2024 despite higher revenue—signaling some operating/market-driven pressure.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved substantially in 2025, with debt-to-equity falling to ~0.14 from ~0.49 in 2024, which strengthens financial flexibility. Equity has grown steadily over time, and returns on equity remain healthy (~11.4% in 2025). The main weakness is variability in leverage in prior years (mid-range debt-to-equity in 2021–2024), which suggests capital structure can shift with business conditions.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a positive in 2025, with operating cash flow of ~$1.12B and free cash flow matching it, and free cash flow equaling net income (strong earnings-to-cash conversion). However, free cash flow declined ~18% in 2025, and cash flow has been choppy historically (large swings in free cash flow growth across years), which adds volatility risk despite the strong latest-year absolute level.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.30B	5.89B	5.10B	4.54B	4.72B
Gross Profit	5.45B	4.88B	4.27B	4.30B	4.69B
EBITDA	933.50M	1.01B	788.15M	955.33M	1.13B
Net Income	683.78M	731.38M	522.54M	662.15M	824.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	41.27B	39.90B	37.73B	37.20B	34.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.85B	3.00B	3.68B	3.84B	4.08B
Total Debt	855.90M	2.77B	2.92B	1.84B	2.32B
Total Liabilities	35.29B	34.21B	32.43B	31.87B	29.01B
Stockholders Equity	5.98B	5.69B	5.29B	5.33B	5.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.12B	416.65M	447.35M	1.08B	683.92M
Operating Cash Flow	1.12B	490.44M	499.33M	1.16B	872.09M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.76B	-2.31B	1.04B	-4.32B	-6.97B
Financing Cash Flow	91.25M	980.10M	-254.58M	3.19B	5.79B

Stifel Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 74.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 74.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.81, below the 50-day MA of 83.72, and below the 200-day MA of 76.17, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SF.

Stifel Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EVR	70 Outperform	$12.23B	21.98	31.66%	0.95%	27.00%	63.47%
SF	69 Neutral	$11.46B	18.91	11.72%	1.43%	7.54%	2.73%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HLI	64 Neutral	$11.43B	25.15	20.47%	1.33%	20.99%	25.02%
PIPR	62 Neutral	$5.27B	18.68	21.65%	1.63%	12.77%	36.43%
LAZ	60 Neutral	$4.75B	21.36	30.59%	4.06%	1.58%	1.93%
JEF	57 Neutral	$9.17B	15.68	6.13%	2.52%	-5.41%	25.28%

Stifel Financial Corporate Events

Stifel Financial Reports Record Client Assets and Deposits

On February 26, 2026, Stifel Financial Corp. reported selected unaudited operating data as of January 31, 2026, highlighting record total client assets of $561.1 billion and fee-based client assets of $229.4 billion, up 10% and 16% year over year, respectively, driven by market appreciation and solid net inflows. Treasury deposits surged 70% from a year earlier on robust venture and fund banking activity, while client money market and insured product balances fell less than 3% from year-end due to seasonal shifts, and total bank loans declined by under 1% during the month, consistent with typical early‑year seasonality, underscoring strong asset growth but modest lending softness for stakeholders to monitor.

The most recent analyst rating on (SF) stock is a Buy with a $124.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stifel Financial stock, see the SF Stock Forecast page.

Stifel Financial Expands Credit Facility with New Agreement

On February 4, 2026, Stifel Financial Corp. and its brokerage subsidiary Stifel Nicolaus & Company entered into an amended and restated unsecured revolving credit agreement with a lender syndicate led by Bank of America, replacing and terminating commitments under their prior 2023 facility. The new agreement extends the maturity to February 4, 2031, provides up to $1.0 billion in committed borrowing capacity at variable rates tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, and will be used for working capital, short-term operating needs, and general corporate purposes, subject to a series of financial and regulatory covenants and customary default provisions that can trigger acceleration of obligations and termination of lending commitments if breached.

The most recent analyst rating on (SF) stock is a Hold with a $136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stifel Financial stock, see the SF Stock Forecast page.

Stifel Financial Announces Stock Split and Dividend Increase

On January 28, 2026, Stifel Financial reported record full-year 2025 net revenues of $5.53 billion, up from $4.97 billion in 2024, driven by higher investment banking, asset management, transactional revenues, and net interest income, while GAAP net income to common shareholders declined to $646.5 million from $694.1 million due in part to elevated legal provisions. Fourth-quarter 2025 results also set a quarterly revenue record at $1.56 billion, with GAAP net income of $255.0 million and strong non-GAAP profitability metrics, including a 22.3% pre-tax margin and an annualized return on average tangible common equity of 31.1%, underscoring robust performance despite legal costs. The board approved an 11% increase in the common stock dividend starting in the first quarter of 2026 and, on January 26, 2026, declared a three-for-two stock split in the form of a 50% stock dividend for shareholders of record as of February 12, 2026, to be distributed on February 26, 2026, signaling management’s confidence and offering incremental benefits to shareholders through enhanced liquidity and higher cash returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (SF) stock is a Hold with a $138.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stifel Financial stock, see the SF Stock Forecast page.

Stifel Financial Reports Record Client Assets and Deposits

On December 18, 2025, Stifel Financial reported selected operating results as of November 30, 2025, highlighting record total client assets of $553.6 billion, up 8% year over year, and record fee-based client assets of $224.7 billion, up 14%, driven by strong advisor recruiting and market gains. Client money market and insured product balances rose 1% from October as higher Sweep balances offset declines in Smart Rate, while Treasury deposits surged 9% month over month and 96% from a year earlier, underscoring accelerating deposit growth; management noted elevated activity in the Institutional Group and, despite disruption from the government shutdown, indicated expectations for a strong fourth quarter, signaling solid operational momentum and resilient client engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (SF) stock is a Buy with a $141.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stifel Financial stock, see the SF Stock Forecast page.