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Lazard (LAZ)
NYSE:LAZ

Lazard (LAZ) AI Stock Analysis

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LAZ

Lazard

(NYSE:LAZ)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$56.00
▲(6.44% Upside)
LAZ scores 64 primarily due to mixed financial performance (declining revenue/FCF growth and high leverage) tempered by solid margins and cash conversion. The earnings call was a notable positive, citing record advisory results, improving productivity, and guidance for stronger 2026 activity/flows, though Q4 outflows and cost pressures remain risks. Technicals are moderately supportive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is reasonable and supported by a 3.8% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Diversified advisory + asset management business model
A dual business model combines transaction-driven advisory fees with recurring management and performance fees, creating durable revenue diversification. Over a multi‑year horizon this reduces reliance on one cycle, supports cash generation, and smooths topline volatility.
Record Financial Advisory results and rising MD productivity
Record advisory revenue and higher revenue per managing director indicate stronger deal execution and productivity. Persistent improvements in banker productivity can lift long-term margins and fee capture, enabling scalable revenue growth as headcount and deal pipelines mature.
Asset management AUM growth, record inflows and ETF product expansion
Growing AUM, outsized gross inflows and new ETF distribution broaden the recurring fee base and channel diversification. Product launches (ETFs) and large inflow momentum support sustainably higher management fees and reduce dependency on episodic advisory revenue over time.
Negative Factors
High balance-sheet leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.61 is a structural vulnerability for a capital‑markets firm, constraining financial flexibility and amplifying earnings sensitivity to rate moves or revenue shocks. Elevated leverage raises refinancing and interest risks over a multi‑quarter horizon.
Declining revenue growth and slower free cash flow growth
Material declines in trailing revenue growth and FCF growth suggest structural pressures in topline and cash generation. If sustained, weaker revenue and FCF constrain reinvestment, limit hiring payoff, and strain margin improvement efforts over the next several quarters.
AUM volatility and large client-related outflows
Loss or restructuring of large client relationships can cause abrupt AUM and fee swings. Such concentration and client turnover create structural revenue variability for Asset Management, making fee income and AUM targets more sensitive to client decisions and market/FX moves.

Lazard (LAZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Lazard Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLazard Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a financial advisory and asset management firm in North America, Europe, Asia, Australia, and Central and South America. It operates in two segments, Financial Advisory and Asset Management. The Financial Advisory segment offers various financial advisory services regarding mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, capital advisory, shareholder advisory, capital raising, sovereign advisory, and other strategic advisory matters. This segment serves corporate, partnership, institutional, government, sovereign, and individual clients across various industry areas, including consumers, financial institutions, healthcare and life sciences, industrials, power and energy/infrastructure, and real estate, as well as technology, telecommunication, and media and entertainment. The Asset Management segment offers a range of investment solutions, and investment and wealth management services in equity and fixed income strategies; asset allocation strategies; and alternative investments and private equity funds to corporations, public funds, sovereign entities, endowments and foundations, labor funds, financial intermediaries, and private clients. The company was founded in 1848 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
How the Company Makes MoneyLazard generates revenue primarily through its Financial Advisory and Asset Management services. In the Financial Advisory segment, the company earns fees from advisory services related to mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and capital raising activities, which are typically contingent on successful transactions. The Asset Management division generates management fees based on the asset base of its clients, as well as performance fees tied to investment returns. Key revenue streams include advisory fees from high-profile transactions, management fees from institutional and retail clients, and performance fees from outperforming investment funds. Additionally, Lazard benefits from strategic partnerships and alliances that enhance its advisory capabilities and expand its client base, further contributing to its earnings.

Lazard Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Financial Advisory with Fees Greater than 1M
Financial Advisory with Fees Greater than 1M
Focuses on high-value advisory deals, indicating the firm's ability to secure and manage large, lucrative projects that can significantly impact overall profitability.
Chart InsightsLazard's Financial Advisory segment is showing signs of recovery, with a notable uptick in fees greater than $1M in late 2024 and mid-2025. This aligns with the earnings call highlighting record revenue and increased private capital engagement, which now accounts for over 40% of advisory revenue. The strategic focus on private equity and talent acquisition is driving this growth, despite challenges like a higher tax rate and compensation expenses. Investors should watch for continued momentum in private capital and M&A activities as Lazard invests in long-term growth.
Data provided by:The Fly

Lazard Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful progress on Lazard's strategic objectives with record Financial Advisory revenue, an Asset Management inflection (AUM and revenue growth, record gross inflows, and ETF launches), improved MD productivity, and a solid pipeline of won-but-not-yet-funded mandates supporting management's expectation of positive net flows in 2026. Near-term challenges include substantial Q4 Asset Management outflows driven by the closure of a large sub-advised relationship, FX and market sensitivity, accelerated hiring that temporarily pressures productivity, and higher compensation and investment spending. Management emphasized disciplined expense control, AI adoption, and leadership appointments to drive execution. Overall, positive operational and strategic momentum appears to outweigh the identifiable near-term headwinds.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Firm-wide Revenue Growth
Reported firm-wide revenue of $3.0 billion for fiscal 2025, up 5% year-over-year; fourth quarter revenue of $892 million, up 10% year-over-year.
Record Financial Advisory Performance
Financial Advisory delivered record revenue of $1.8 billion in 2025; Q4 Financial Advisory revenue was $542 million, up 7% year-over-year. Record revenue in EMEA and for the private capital advisory group; strong restructuring and liability management results.
Improved Banker Productivity
Average revenue per Managing Director (MD) reached $8.9 million in 2025, an increase of $2.5 million since 2023. Company set a 2030 MD productivity target of $12.5 million.
Asset Management Inflection and AUM Growth
Asset Management revenue was $1.2 billion for 2025; average AUM for Q4 was $261 billion, up 12% year-over-year. Q4 Asset Management revenue was $339 million, up 18% year-over-year and 15% sequentially.
Record Gross Inflows and ETF Launch Momentum
Achieved record gross inflows that exceeded the $50 billion target for 2025. Launched seven active U.S. ETFs in 2025 with ETF AUM surpassing $800 million, supporting distribution and product diversification.
Won-but-Not-Yet-Funded Pipeline and Net Flows Outlook
Won-but-not-yet-funded mandates totaled $13 billion (higher than a year ago), underpinning management's expectation of positive net flows in 2026. Excluding one closed sub-advised relationship, full-year 2025 net inflows were $8.4 billion.
Capital Return and Shareholder Distributions
Returned $393 million to shareholders in 2025 (including $187 million in dividends, $91 million in share repurchases, and $115 million for employee tax obligations); declared quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share.
Expense Discipline and Slight Improvement in Compensation Ratio
Full-year compensation expense was $2.0 billion with a compensation ratio improving to 65.5% from 65.9% the prior year; non-compensation ratio ~20% for the year, and management plans disciplined expense control as revenues grow.
Leadership and Strategic Positioning
Key leadership additions and changes: Chris Hogben named CEO of Asset Management, Rosalie Berman as COO, Eric Van Naustrand as CIO, and Tracy Farr appointed CFO; continued execution of Lazard 2030 strategy and emphasis on AI and 'contextual alpha' as strategic differentiators.
Negative Updates
Large Q4 Asset Management Outflows
Reported net outflows of $19.7 billion during the quarter, largely driven by the closure of one U.S. sub-advised relationship; AUM as of December 31 was reported as down 4% versus September 2025.
AUM Volatility from Market and FX
During the quarter, market appreciation added $10 billion to AUM but foreign exchange depreciation reduced AUM by $800 million, illustrating sensitivity of AUM to market and FX movements.
Temporary Productivity Pressure from Accelerated Hiring
Aggressive MD hiring (more than double 2024 net additions) creates temporary downward pressure on productivity as new hires acclimate, and requires ongoing ramp time before full productivity is realized.
Elevated Compensation and Investment Spend
Compensation expense accelerated (Q4 compensation expense $585 million; full-year $2.0 billion) as the firm invests in talent to support growth, creating near-term cost pressure despite modest improvement in the compensation ratio.
Mixed AUM Reporting Detail
Transcript shows average Q4 AUM of $261 billion (+12% YoY) but also reports AUM 'as of December 31' as $24 billion (+12% YoY, -4% vs Sept 2025), a figure that appears inconsistent with other AUM figures and may indicate reporting ambiguity in the discussion.
Macroeconomic and Political Uncertainty Risks
Management acknowledged geopolitical and U.S. political uncertainty (including the midterms) and general timing variability in M&A activity; while they do not expect material impact, these remain sources of risk to deal volumes and timing.
Q4 Adjusted Tax Rate Spike
Adjusted effective tax rate for Q4 was elevated at 29.5% compared with the full-year adjusted effective tax rate of 22.7%, representing a quarterly tax rate volatility point.
Company Guidance
Lazard guided to accelerating Financial Advisory activity and positive net flows in Asset Management for 2026, supported by 2025 results: firm-wide revenue of $3.0 billion (+5% YoY; Q4 $892 million, +10% YoY), Financial Advisory record revenue of $1.8 billion (Q4 $542 million, +7% YoY) and Asset Management revenue of $1.2 billion (Q4 $339 million, +18% YoY; Q4 management fees $301 million; FY management fees $1.1 billion; FY incentive fees $59 million). Key balance-sheet and flow metrics included average Q4 AUM of $261 billion (+12% YoY), year‑end won‑but‑not‑funded mandates of $13 billion, record gross inflows that exceeded the $50 billion target, seven U.S. active ETFs launched with >$800 million AUM, Q4 market appreciation of $10 billion, a Q4 FX drag of $0.8 billion, and Q4 net outflows of $19.7 billion (FY net inflows of $8.4 billion excluding the closed sub‑advised relationship). Productivity and cost guidance: average revenue per Managing Director was $8.9 million in 2025 (up $2.5M since 2023) with a 2030 target of $12.5M/MD, a hiring goal of 10–15 net FA MDs per year (2024: 11 net adds; 2025: >2x 2024), FY compensation expense $2.0 billion (Q4 $585M) with a FY comp ratio of 65.5% (65.9% prior), FY non‑comp expense $613 million (~20% ratio), adjusted effective tax rate 22.7% FY (Q4 29.5%), $393 million returned to shareholders in 2025 (including a $0.50/share quarterly dividend), and an expectation of mid‑to‑high single‑digit dollar increases in non‑comp expense in 2026 alongside planned operating leverage.

Lazard Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mixed fundamentals: declining TTM revenue growth (-32.4%) and pressured EBIT/EBITDA margins offset by reasonable profitability (34.2% gross margin; 8.9% net margin). Balance sheet leverage is a key risk (debt-to-equity 2.61) despite strong ROE (38.7%). Cash conversion is solid (FCF to net income 0.97) but FCF growth declined (-15.2%).
Income Statement
65
Positive
Lazard's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 32.4%, reflecting potential challenges in market conditions. However, the company maintains a reasonable gross profit margin of 34.2% and a net profit margin of 8.9%, suggesting operational efficiency. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased compared to previous years, indicating pressure on profitability.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.61, which is a concern for financial stability. The return on equity stands at 38.7%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is relatively low, indicating a higher reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 15.2% in the TTM period, which could impact future investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.56, indicating moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.97, suggesting efficient cash conversion.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.07B3.09B2.55B2.83B3.27B2.64B
Gross Profit1.05B1.08B605.13M1.17B1.37B1.09B
EBITDA385.05M511.27M40.90M640.77M842.99M619.66M
Net Income273.28M279.91M-75.48M357.52M528.06M402.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.63B4.79B4.64B5.85B7.15B5.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.39B1.58B1.19B2.01B2.81B2.52B
Total Debt2.20B2.19B2.18B2.20B2.24B2.29B
Total Liabilities3.68B4.03B4.07B4.59B5.49B4.97B
Stockholders Equity841.52M636.24M423.76M556.46M975.22M911.77M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow467.61M697.33M136.37M784.47M826.38M511.64M
Operating Cash Flow482.48M742.83M164.66M833.98M866.08M575.93M
Investing Cash Flow-29.69M134.07M-38.32M-56.44M-39.06M-62.94M
Financing Cash Flow-562.83M-439.67M-1.57B-1.38B195.84M-547.35M

Lazard Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price52.61
Price Trends
50DMA
50.74
Positive
100DMA
51.03
Positive
200DMA
48.79
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.60
Negative
RSI
54.27
Neutral
STOCH
48.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LAZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 52.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.69, above the 50-day MA of 50.74, and above the 200-day MA of 48.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LAZ.

Lazard Risk Analysis

Lazard disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lazard reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Lazard Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$5.91B24.5651.98%3.69%51.19%456.59%
70
Outperform
$6.26B28.6415.88%1.66%3.96%-20.33%
70
Outperform
$5.76B8.1529.43%2.88%27.66%131.25%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
$6.25B26.6019.30%1.63%12.77%36.43%
64
Neutral
$5.01B20.9536.41%4.06%1.58%1.93%
58
Neutral
$5.68B18.2914.47%32.53%13.38%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LAZ
Lazard
52.61
-0.29
-0.55%
SNEX
StoneX Group
107.80
34.25
46.57%
MKTX
Marketaxess Holdings
168.56
-45.79
-21.36%
PIPR
Piper Sandler
353.60
49.66
16.34%
MC
Moelis
72.90
-1.80
-2.41%
VIRT
Virtu Financial
37.49
-1.20
-3.09%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 29, 2026