Moelis (MC)
NYSE:MC
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Moelis
(NYSE:MC)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$79.00
â–²(16.88% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/02/26
The score is driven primarily by strong recent financial recovery and a positive earnings-call outlook (record revenue, improving margins, strong pipeline, and shareholder returns with no debt). Offsetting factors are mixed technical positioning and valuation that looks somewhat expensive on P/E despite a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Strong TTM operating cash flow (~$463M) and FCF (~$417M), with FCF roughly matching net income, show durable cash conversion. That cash generation underpins recurring dividends and buybacks, funds talent and tech investments, and provides a multi‑quarter liquidity buffer through cycles.
Negative Factors
Earnings cyclicality
The business is structurally cyclical: a recent loss year and volatile cash flows illustrate sensitivity to market and deal cycles. That cyclicality can strain capital cushions, complicate comp and hiring plans, and make multi‑period earnings and cash forecasting unreliable for strategic planning.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Strong TTM operating cash flow (~$463M) and FCF (~$417M), with FCF roughly matching net income, show durable cash conversion. That cash generation underpins recurring dividends and buybacks, funds talent and tech investments, and provides a multi‑quarter liquidity buffer through cycles.
Read all positive factors
Moelis (MC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.61B
Dividend Yield3.69%
Average Volume (3M)886.40K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.1
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth19.19%
EPS Growth26.01%
CountryUS
Employees1,308
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.94
Shares Outstanding74,374,016
10 Day Avg. Volume829,560
30 Day Avg. Volume886,404
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)9.07
Price to Sales (P/S)3.40
P/FCF Ratio9.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$72.13Price Target Upside6.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.69B
Moelis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Moelis & Company operates as a dedicated investment banking advisory firm, offering expert counsel on a wide range of corporate finance matters. Its core services include strategic guidance for mergers and acquisitions (M&A), corporate recapitaliz...
How the Company Makes Money
Moelis primarily makes money by earning advisory fees for investment-banking services. Its core revenue stream is transaction-based advisory revenue, typically recognized when client engagements reach key milestones or close (for example, completi...
Moelis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial performance with record Q1 revenue (+4% YoY), margin improvement (adjusted pretax margin 15%), strong deal flow and an all-time-high pipeline, meaningful talent hires, and disciplined capital returns (cash $354M, no debt, $171M returned). Near-term headwinds were acknowledged — geopolitical uncertainty, disruptions in parts of private credit and AI-driven repricing in software have weighed on some deal activity and certain product revenues (CSA/restructuring) and have led to increased non-compensation costs. On balance, management framed challenges as near-term/timing-related while emphasizing durable pipeline strength and growth investments.Positive Updates
Record First-Quarter Revenue
Reported record Q1 revenues of $320 million, up 4% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Macro and Geopolitical Headwinds
Management cited headwinds from the war in the Middle East and other geopolitical uncertainty that have created near-term disruption and could elongate deal timelines.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First-Quarter Revenue
Reported record Q1 revenues of $320 million, up 4% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Moelis guided to a constructive 2026 outlook anchored by record Q1 revenue of $320 million (up 4% YoY), a roughly 2/3 M&A / 1/3 non‑M&A mix, and an adjusted pretax margin of 15% (vs. 14% LY); they reiterated a full‑year adjusted compensation ratio target of ~65.8% (down from 69% in Q1 2025), reported Q1 compensation expense of ~$210 million, and disclosed adjusted non‑comp expenses of $67 million (21% of revenue) with full‑year non‑comp expense growth expected to be similar to 2025. Balance‑sheet and capital‑return metrics included $354 million of cash, no debt, a $0.65 quarterly dividend, 1.9 million shares repurchased in Q1 at an average $61.40 (1.0M for tax withholding, 895k open market), and ~ $171 million returned to shareholders in the quarter (repurchases offset >50% of annual equity issuance). Operationally they noted sponsor M&A revenues grew double‑digits, PCA is scaling (7 senior bankers focused on GP‑led secondaries), 8 MD hires YTD (2 joined, 6 to join), and a near‑all‑time‑high pipeline with record announced transaction activity (notable mandates: Clear Channel $6.2B, Tri Pointe $4.5B, Kennedy Wilson $9.5B, TowerBrook $1.2B continuation, X‑Energy $1.2B IPO).Moelis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.53B | 1.52B | 1.19B | 854.75M | 985.30M | 1.54B |
| Gross Profit | 1.06B | 1.50B | 1.19B | 140.00M | 367.10M | 626.70M |
| EBITDA | 300.04M | 339.35M | 183.39M | -32.03M | 224.07M | 503.16M |
| Net Income | 221.20M | 233.04M | 136.02M | -24.70M | 150.34M | 365.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.29B | 1.81B | 1.38B | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 152.94M | 508.60M | 412.47M | 186.42M | 206.79M | 520.21M |
| Total Debt | 267.18M | 267.15M | 223.24M | 215.68M | 192.76M | 191.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 666.98M | 1.13B | 899.55M | 817.30M | 757.93M | 1.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 487.08M | 568.44M | 441.61M | 352.14M | 444.50M | 489.07M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 416.96M | 539.97M | 415.39M | 141.78M | 27.04M | 920.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 462.98M | 576.30M | 427.49M | 158.47M | 32.99M | 936.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -61.39M | -195.97M | 17.11M | 48.57M | -11.18M | -17.01M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -431.59M | -283.90M | -215.10M | -229.17M | -326.90M | -602.54M |
Moelis Technical Analysis
Positive
67.59
Price Trends
65.24
Positive
63.42
Positive
65.50
Positive
Market Momentum
1.17
Positive
52.98
Neutral
32.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.86, above the 50-day MA of 65.24, and above the 200-day MA of 65.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MC.
Moelis Risk Analysis
Moelis disclosed 7 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moelis reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Moelis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $13.74B | 18.64 | 41.05% | 0.95% | 47.30% | 68.64% | |
73 Outperform | $5.61B | 23.09 | 42.00% | 3.69% | 19.19% | 26.01% | |
73 Outperform | $9.43B | 21.49 | 18.79% | 1.33% | 9.48% | 5.23% | |
73 Outperform | $3.98B | 21.42 | 76.40% | 0.58% | 21.44% | 17.50% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | $4.22B | 15.68 | 33.24% | 4.06% | 9.04% | -13.29% | |
62 Neutral | $22.83B | 26.29 | 17.04% | 0.32% | 38.08% | -22.75% |
* Financial Sector Average
MC
Moelis
67.70
13.89
25.81%
EVR
Evercore Partners
357.38
119.74
50.39%
LAZ
Lazard
43.72
2.26
5.44%
LPLA
LPL Financial
295.66
-77.05
-20.67%
HLI
Houlihan Lokey
137.89
-30.94
-18.32%
PJT
PJT Partners
152.37
2.50
1.66%
Moelis Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Moelis Posts Record Q1 2026 Revenue and Margin Expansion
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
Moelis Company reported record first-quarter 2026 revenues of $319.8 million, up 4% year on year, with GAAP diluted earnings of $0.48 per share and adjusted earnings of $0.50 per share, both benefiting from a $0.11 per-share tax gain, and an adju...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.