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Moelis
(NYSE:MC)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$78.00
â–²(16.42% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
MC scores well primarily on financial performance and earnings-call-driven outlook: strong cash generation, improved profitability, and management citing record results with a materially larger pipeline and ongoing capital returns. Technicals are supportive with bullish trend signals, while valuation is fair (P/E ~22.6) and helped by a solid dividend yield. The main offset is the business’s inherent earnings cyclicality and cost pressures noted on the call.
Positive Factors
Record Revenue and Pipeline
Record revenue and a substantially larger pipeline indicate stronger client demand and improving transaction visibility. If sustained, this should support advisory-fee growth across the second half and strengthen Moelis’s competitive position.
Negative Factors
Transaction-Cycle Earnings Volatility
Moelis relies primarily on transaction-based advisory fees, so revenue depends on deal activity and closing timing. The sharp historical swings show that earnings can contract materially when M&A, financing or restructuring volumes weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record Revenue and Pipeline
Record revenue and a substantially larger pipeline indicate stronger client demand and improving transaction visibility. If sustained, this should support advisory-fee growth across the second half and strengthen Moelis’s competitive position.
Read all positive factors
Moelis (MC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.54B
Dividend Yield3.8%
Average Volume (3M)917.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.6
Beta (1Y)1.46
Revenue Growth13.69%
EPS Growth12.33%
CountryUS
Employees1,416
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.03
Shares Outstanding74,078,590
10 Day Avg. Volume725,252
30 Day Avg. Volume917,467
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)9.07
Price to Sales (P/S)3.40
P/FCF Ratio9.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.83Price Target Upside7.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)3.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.73B
Moelis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Moelis & Company operates as a dedicated investment banking advisory firm, offering expert counsel on a wide range of corporate finance matters. Its core services include strategic guidance for mergers and acquisitions (M&A), corporate recapitaliz...
How the Company Makes Money
Moelis primarily makes money by earning advisory fees for investment-banking services. Its core revenue stream is transaction-based advisory revenue, typically recognized when client engagements reach key milestones or close (for example, completi...
Moelis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong, broad-based revenue growth, record results in capital markets and PCA, a substantially larger announced pipeline (+80%), improved margins, meaningful talent additions and active capital returns, indicating positive operational momentum. Notable challenges include rising non-compensation costs, competitive senior hiring pressures, pockets of weaker capital structure activity, industry-wide sponsor exit constraints in parts of the mid-market, and macro/AI-related risks. On balance the positive revenue, pipeline, margin improvements and balance sheet strength outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Year-over-Year Growth
Reported Q2 revenues of $409 million, up 12% year-over-year, and first half revenues of $729 million, up 9% year-over-year — record revenues for both the quarter and first half.
Negative Updates
Rising Non-Compensation Expenses
Adjusted non-compensation expenses were $66.5M in Q2 (non-comp expense ratio 16.2%) and $134M in H1 (ratio 18.3%). Management attributes growth to higher deal-related T&E, client conferences and increased underwriting syndication costs from expanding public equity capital markets; quarterly non-comp expected to remain in the mid- to high-$60M range.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Year-over-Year Growth
Reported Q2 revenues of $409 million, up 12% year-over-year, and first half revenues of $729 million, up 9% year-over-year — record revenues for both the quarter and first half.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call was constructive: Q2 revenues were $409.0M (+12% YoY) and first‑half revenues were $729.0M (+9% YoY), both records, with capital markets and private capital advisory driving growth and an announced pipeline up >80% year‑over‑year as the firm enters the back half with a record total pipeline; first‑half business mix was ~2/3 M&A / 1/3 non‑M&A. Management expects a strong second half, continued progress on the adjusted compensation ratio (65.8% in Q2 and YTD vs. 69% prior year, with improvement dependent on full‑year revenues, senior hiring and the talent market), and steady adjusted non‑comp expense run‑rate (Q2 non‑comp $66.5M, 16.2% ratio; H1 non‑comp $134M, 18.3% ratio; quarterly non‑comp expected in the mid‑to‑high $60M range). Financial highlights and capital returns include adjusted pretax margins of 18.6% (Q2) and 17.0% (YTD) vs. 17.6%/16.0% prior, an effective tax rate of 29.1% for the quarter, a $0.65 regular quarterly dividend, ~337k shares repurchased in Q2 at $64.43 avg (≈2.3M shares repurchased YTD for ~$141M), ~ $246M returned to shareholders in H1 including dividends, and cash of $481M with no debt. The firm also reinforced hiring and strategic investments (12 lateral MD hires YTD and 13 internal promotions, PCA team at 7 dedicated MDs) and ongoing AI deployment with largely fixed‑cost contracts to date.Moelis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.57B | 1.52B | 1.19B | 854.75M | 985.30M | 1.54B |
| Gross Profit | 1.10B | 1.50B | 364.39M | 140.00M | 367.10M | 626.70M |
| EBITDA | 313.64M | 339.35M | 183.39M | -32.03M | 224.07M | 503.16M |
| Net Income | 228.26M | 233.04M | 136.02M | -24.70M | 150.34M | 365.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.41B | 1.81B | 1.38B | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 207.74M | 508.60M | 412.47M | 186.42M | 206.79M | 520.21M |
| Total Debt | 262.75M | 267.15M | 223.24M | 215.68M | 192.76M | 191.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 766.60M | 1.13B | 899.55M | 817.30M | 757.93M | 1.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 505.81M | 568.44M | 441.61M | 352.14M | 444.50M | 489.07M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 435.52M | 539.97M | 415.39M | 141.78M | 27.04M | 920.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 490.45M | 576.30M | 427.49M | 158.47M | 32.99M | 936.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.36M | -195.97M | 17.11M | 48.57M | -11.18M | -17.01M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -394.02M | -283.90M | -215.10M | -229.17M | -326.90M | -602.54M |
Moelis Technical Analysis
Positive
67.00
Price Trends
66.63
Positive
65.50
Positive
64.65
Positive
Market Momentum
0.41
Negative
53.45
Neutral
60.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.24, above the 50-day MA of 66.63, and above the 200-day MA of 64.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MC.
Moelis Risk Analysis
Moelis disclosed 7 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moelis reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Moelis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $5.54B | 22.61 | 43.55% | 3.88% | 13.69% | 12.33% | |
72 Outperform | $4.47B | 19.64 | 71.16% | 0.59% | 22.91% | 21.48% | |
71 Outperform | $11.23B | 15.11 | 39.83% | 1.00% | 45.68% | 59.92% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $28.45B | 28.93 | 18.45% | 0.37% | 38.82% | -14.48% | |
64 Neutral | $4.30B | 19.27 | 25.84% | 4.51% | 5.74% | -30.53% | |
64 Neutral | $9.02B | 21.17 | 17.78% | 1.78% | 1.59% | -1.40% |
* Financial Sector Average
MC
Moelis
68.50
-0.67
-0.97%
EVR
Evercore Partners
290.11
-24.95
-7.92%
LAZ
Lazard
44.07
-10.38
-19.07%
LPLA
LPL Financial
364.18
5.05
1.41%
HLI
Houlihan Lokey
128.95
-64.46
-33.33%
PJT
PJT Partners
176.41
-0.50
-0.28%
Moelis Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Moelis Reports Record Q2 2026 Revenues and Earnings
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Moelis Company reported record second-quarter and first-half 2026 revenues of $409.4 million and $729.2 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 12% and 9%. GAAP diluted earnings were $0.62 per share for the ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Moelis Shareholders Back Directors, Pay and Auditor at Meeting
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Moelis Company held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where investors voted on board elections, executive compensation, and auditor ratification. Stockholders elected seven directors, including Chairman and CEO Kenneth Mo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.