Moelis (MC)
NYSE:MC
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Moelis
(NYSE:MC)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$59.00
â–²(4.85% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (profit/cash rebound and a debt-free balance sheet) and a constructive earnings outlook with strong FY2025 execution and continued capital returns. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and the business’s cyclical variability.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
A debt-free balance sheet and higher equity materially reduce financial risk and give management flexibility to fund investments, maintain the dividend, and pursue opportunistic buybacks or acquisitions. This durability supports resilience through advisory cycles and strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Cyclical earnings volatility
Advisory revenues depend heavily on market transaction activity, producing pronounced swings in profit and cash flow. This structural cyclicality complicates forecasting, strains compensation leverage in weak periods, and requires conservative capital planning to sustain dividends and buybacks across cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
A debt-free balance sheet and higher equity materially reduce financial risk and give management flexibility to fund investments, maintain the dividend, and pursue opportunistic buybacks or acquisitions. This durability supports resilience through advisory cycles and strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors
Moelis (MC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.49B
Dividend Yield3.69%
Average Volume (3M)1.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.1
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth51.19%
EPS Growth456.59%
CountryUS
Employees1,308
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.13
Shares Outstanding73,435,380
10 Day Avg. Volume1,446,103
30 Day Avg. Volume1,501,101
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)9.07
Price to Sales (P/S)3.40
P/FCF Ratio9.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.59
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$75.38Price Target Upside33.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.78B
Moelis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory firm. It offers advisory services in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings, capital markets transactions, and other corporate finance matters. The co...
How the Company Makes Money
Moelis primarily makes money by earning advisory fees for executing and advising on client transactions rather than through balance-sheet lending or large-scale principal investing. Its key revenue stream is advisory fees tied to strategic transac...
Moelis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive financial and operational picture: record quarterly revenue, robust full-year growth (+28%), substantial margin expansion, significant EPS improvement (+64%), strong cash position with active capital returns, and growth investments (notably PCA and technology). The main headwinds are a decline in capital structure advisory, continued investment-driven non-compensation expense growth, PCA still being early-stage for revenue, and sensitivity of compensation leverage to hiring and revenue cadence. Management signaled confidence in pipeline momentum and market opportunity while cautioning seasonal/near-term variability and structural risks (talent competition, geopolitical and AI-related industry shifts). Overall, the positive achievements and material financial improvements outweigh the manageable risks and nascent ramp of newer businesses.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Strong Annual Revenues
Reported record fourth-quarter revenues of $488 million, up 11% year-over-year, and full year adjusted revenues of $1.54 billion, up 28% versus 2024.
Negative Updates
Decline in Capital Structure Advisory (CSA)
Capital structure advisory revenues declined in 2025 and partially offset revenue gains from M&A and capital markets (no specific percentage disclosed), although management expects CSA to be flat-to-up going forward.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly and Strong Annual Revenues
Reported record fourth-quarter revenues of $488 million, up 11% year-over-year, and full year adjusted revenues of $1.54 billion, up 28% versus 2024.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reported record Q4 revenues of $488M and FY2025 adjusted revenues of $1.54B (up 28%) with adjusted EPS $2.99 (+64%), adjusted pretax margins of 28.6% (Q4) and 21.5% (FY), and improved compensation and non‑comp ratios (61.1% Q4 / 65.8% FY comp; non‑comp expense ratio 12.4% Q4 and 14.6% FY), and guided that for 2026 they expect non‑compensation expenses to grow at a similar rate to 2025 and to start the year with a compensation ratio roughly in line with year‑end 65.8%; they reiterated a normalized tax rate of ~29.8% (effective 22.4%) with an expected RSU‑related excess tax benefit boosting Q1 EPS, prioritized a $0.65 quarterly dividend while offsetting dilution via buybacks (new $300M authorization; ~716k shares repurchased in Q4 at $62.96, ~950k shares for the year; $284M returned to shareholders in 2025), maintain $849M cash and no debt, and expect PCA to ramp meaningfully in 2026 with CSA being "flat to up."Moelis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.52B | 1.19B | 854.75M | 985.30M | 1.54B |
| Gross Profit | 1.50B | 1.19B | 140.00M | 367.10M | 626.70M |
| EBITDA | 339.35M | 183.39M | -32.03M | 224.07M | 503.16M |
| Net Income | 233.04M | 136.02M | -24.70M | 150.34M | 365.21M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.81B | 1.38B | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 508.60M | 412.47M | 186.42M | 206.79M | 520.21M |
| Total Debt | 267.15M | 223.24M | 215.68M | 192.76M | 191.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.13B | 899.55M | 817.30M | 757.93M | 1.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 568.44M | 441.61M | 352.14M | 444.50M | 489.07M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 539.97M | 415.39M | 141.78M | 27.04M | 920.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 576.30M | 427.49M | 158.47M | 32.99M | 936.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -195.97M | 17.11M | 48.57M | -11.18M | -17.01M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -283.90M | -215.10M | -229.17M | -326.90M | -602.54M |
Moelis Technical Analysis
Neutral
56.27
Price Trends
61.83
Negative
64.96
Negative
66.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.39
Negative
46.93
Neutral
73.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 56.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.42, below the 50-day MA of 61.83, and below the 200-day MA of 66.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MC.
Moelis Risk Analysis
Moelis disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moelis reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Moelis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $4.49B | 22.13 | 44.30% | 3.69% | 51.19% | 456.59% | |
71 Outperform | $3.38B | 23.88 | 84.45% | 0.58% | 23.16% | 64.04% | |
70 Outperform | $12.08B | 16.14 | 33.81% | 0.95% | 27.00% | 63.47% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $9.86B | 24.90 | 20.14% | 1.33% | 20.99% | 25.02% | |
60 Neutral | $3.90B | 19.99 | 30.96% | 4.06% | 1.58% | 1.93% | |
60 Neutral | $23.52B | 32.56 | 18.57% | 0.32% | 35.19% | -18.62% |
* Financial Sector Average
MC
Moelis
56.27
8.26
17.20%
EVR
Evercore Partners
304.95
141.95
87.08%
LAZ
Lazard
41.48
8.82
27.00%
LPLA
LPL Financial
293.67
6.78
2.36%
HLI
Houlihan Lokey
141.32
-0.88
-0.62%
PJT
PJT Partners
139.99
14.81
11.83%
Moelis Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Moelis Reports Record Q4 Results and Expands Capital Returns
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Moelis Company reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, posting record fourth-quarter revenues of $487.9 million, up 11% year-on-year, and full-year 2025 GAAP revenues of $1...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.