Moelis (MC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.13B
• Dividend Yield: 3.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.51
• Revenue Growth: 51.19%
• EPS Growth: 456.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,308
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 1.13
• Shares Outstanding: 73,435,380
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,387,184
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,335,182
• PEG Ratio: 0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.55
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.13
• 1Y Price Target: $76.38
• Price Target Upside: 47.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.48
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.80B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $57.00 ▲(10.14% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (profit/cash rebound and a debt-free balance sheet) and a constructive earnings outlook with strong FY2025 execution and continued capital returns. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and the business’s cyclical variability.

Positive Factors

Debt-free Balance Sheet

A zero-debt balance sheet and higher equity materially reduce financial risk and increase strategic optionality. This durability supports sustained capital returns, opportunistic hiring or M&A, and cushions advisory revenue cyclicality, improving resilience across downcycles.

Revenue and Margin Recovery

A strong rebound in top-line and meaningful margin expansion demonstrates structural operating leverage in the advisory model. Consistent M&A and capital markets activity drove scale benefits, indicating the firm can convert deal flow into durable profit improvement when market activity normalizes.

Robust Cash Position & Capital Returns

Substantial cash with active dividends and buybacks reflects strong free cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. That liquidity funds strategic investments (e.g., PCA buildout) while maintaining shareholder returns, signaling durable financial flexibility and governance alignment.

Negative Factors

Cyclical Revenue Volatility

Moelis’s advisory revenues are highly tied to deal cadence, producing pronounced profit swings across cycles. This structural volatility complicates multi-quarter forecasting, can force procyclical compensation moves, and requires excess liquidity and conservative planning to sustain long-term strategy.

Nascent PCA Revenue Contribution

Investments to build PCA create a strategic growth avenue, but early-stage revenue means monetization risk. Front-loaded hiring and origination costs could depress margins if client wins or fee scales lag expectations, making the long-term return on these structural investments uncertain.

Rising Non-Compensation Expenses

Sustained increases in non-comp fixed and semi-fixed costs (tech, data, offices, events) can structurally raise the firm’s break-even level. Unless revenue growth persistently outpaces these expense trends, margin durability will be challenged, especially during weaker deal cycles.

Moelis Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory firm. It offers advisory services in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings, capital markets transactions, and other corporate finance matters. The company offers its services to public multinational corporations, middle market private companies, financial sponsors, entrepreneurs, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. The company serves its clients in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia. It has strategic alliances in Mexico with Alfaro, Dávila y Scherer, S.C.; and in Australia with MA Moelis Australia. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Moelis primarily makes money by earning advisory fees for executing and advising on client transactions rather than through balance-sheet lending or large-scale principal investing. Its key revenue stream is advisory fees tied to strategic transactions, typically recognized when a deal closes or when specified advisory milestones are met under an engagement letter. Major components include: (1) M&A advisory fees: compensation for advising buyers, sellers, and merger partners on deal strategy, valuation, negotiation, and execution; fees are often success-based, meaning a significant portion is contingent on transaction completion. (2) Restructuring, recapitalization, and liability management fees: fees for advising companies, creditors, and other stakeholders during financial restructurings (e.g., out-of-court exchanges or court-supervised processes) and balance sheet optimization; these engagements can include monthly retainers plus success fees based on outcomes such as completed restructurings or liability management transactions. (3) Capital markets advisory fees: fees for advising on equity and debt financing strategy and process management (e.g., evaluating funding alternatives, assisting with investor messaging and timing); Moelis generally acts as an advisor rather than a traditional underwriter, and revenue is earned for advisory services rendered under client mandates. (4) Other strategic advisory: fees for bespoke mandates such as fairness opinions, special committee advisory, defense advisory, and other strategic reviews, often structured as retainers and/or contingent fees. Factors influencing earnings include the volume and size of global M&A and restructuring activity, the firm’s ability to win mandates and close transactions, and the mix of engagements (e.g., higher restructuring activity during downturns versus stronger M&A during expansions). Information on specific revenue-sharing partnerships is null.

Moelis Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are meaningfully improved into 2025: strong revenue/profit rebound versus 2023, solid margins, robust cash generation, and a strengthened (debt-free) balance sheet. The main drag is cyclicality/volatility across recent years, including uneven cash conversion in 2022 and a downturn in 2023.

Income Statement

Moelis shows a strong earnings recovery after a loss in 2023, with profitability rebounding in 2024 and improving further in 2025. Revenue has accelerated materially from 2023 to 2025, and margins in 2025 are solid for the business. The key weakness is volatility: results swung from strong profitability in 2021–2022 to losses in 2023, highlighting sensitivity to the advisory cycle.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet strengthened meaningfully in 2025 with zero reported debt and higher equity, which reduces financial risk and improves flexibility. Return on equity is strong in profitable years, reflecting efficient capital use. The main caution is that leverage was moderate in prior years and profitability (and therefore equity returns) has been inconsistent, including negative returns in 2023.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally strong, with free cash flow closely tracking net income across years and improving again in 2024–2025. 2025 cash flow is particularly robust versus earnings, supporting quality of profits. The weakness is volatility: operating and free cash flow were very weak in 2022 versus reported profits, indicating uneven cash conversion through the cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.52B	1.19B	854.75M	985.30M	1.54B
Gross Profit	1.50B	1.19B	140.00M	367.10M	626.70M
EBITDA	339.35M	183.39M	-32.03M	224.07M	503.16M
Net Income	233.04M	136.02M	-24.70M	150.34M	365.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.81B	1.38B	1.18B	1.22B	1.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	508.60M	412.47M	186.42M	206.79M	520.21M
Total Debt	267.15M	223.24M	215.68M	192.76M	191.89M
Total Liabilities	1.13B	899.55M	817.30M	757.93M	1.08B
Stockholders Equity	568.44M	441.61M	352.14M	444.50M	489.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	539.97M	415.39M	141.78M	27.04M	920.55M
Operating Cash Flow	576.30M	427.49M	158.47M	32.99M	936.98M
Investing Cash Flow	-195.97M	17.11M	48.57M	-11.18M	-17.01M
Financing Cash Flow	-283.90M	-215.10M	-229.17M	-326.90M	-602.54M

Moelis Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 51.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.36, below the 50-day MA of 67.21, and below the 200-day MA of 66.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.13 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MC.

Moelis Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MC	71 Outperform	$4.13B	22.13	44.30%	3.69%	51.19%	456.59%
PJT	71 Outperform	$3.12B	23.93	84.45%	0.58%	23.16%	64.04%
EVR	70 Outperform	$10.62B	16.14	33.81%	0.95%	27.00%	63.47%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HLI	64 Neutral	$9.73B	24.90	20.14%	1.33%	20.99%	25.02%
LAZ	60 Neutral	$3.81B	19.99	30.96%	4.06%	1.58%	1.93%
LPLA	60 Neutral	$23.15B	32.56	18.57%	0.32%	35.19%	-18.62%

Moelis Corporate Events

Moelis Reports Record Q4 Results and Expands Capital Returns

On February 4, 2026, Moelis & Company reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, posting record fourth-quarter revenues of $487.9 million, up 11% year-on-year, and full-year 2025 GAAP revenues of $1.52 billion, with adjusted revenues of $1.54 billion, 28% higher than 2024. GAAP diluted earnings were $1.10 per share for the quarter and $2.94 for the year, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.13 and $2.99 respectively, supported by an improved adjusted pre-tax margin of 21.5% for 2025 versus 16.4% in 2024 and aided by a tax benefit related to share-based awards. Reflecting confidence in its momentum and balance sheet strength, the firm declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share, secured Board approval for a new $300 million share repurchase authorization, and noted that it returned $283.6 million of capital to shareholders for the 2025 performance year, while continuing to expand its platform by promoting 25 advisory professionals to Managing Director across 2025 and early 2026 and adding a new Managing Director to its Private Capital Advisory team.

The most recent analyst rating on (MC) stock is a Hold with a $81.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moelis stock, see the MC Stock Forecast page.