Moelis (MC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.64B
• Dividend Yield: 3.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 807.39K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.39
• Revenue Growth: 51.19%
• EPS Growth: 456.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,308
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 0.68
• Shares Outstanding: 73,996,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 957,271
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 807,387
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 12.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.92
• 1Y Price Target: $78.00
• Price Target Upside: 11.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.67
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.48B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $77.00 ▲(9.95% Upside)

Moelis & Company demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and cash flow generation. The positive technical indicators and strong earnings call further support the stock's outlook. However, the relatively high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, and there are some risks noted in the earnings call, such as AI disruption and challenges in Capital Structure Advisory.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Moelis's advisory services, enhancing its market position and supporting long-term financial stability.

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with substantial cash reserves and no debt provides Moelis with financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.

Expansion of Managing Director Count

Expanding the managing director count strengthens Moelis's expertise and capacity to handle complex transactions, supporting long-term growth and client relationships.

Negative Factors

Decline in Capital Structure Advisory

A decline in Capital Structure Advisory could indicate challenges in adapting to market changes, potentially impacting future revenue from this segment.

Concerns Around AI Disruption

AI disruption poses risks to traditional advisory models, requiring Moelis to adapt its strategies to remain competitive and mitigate potential revenue impacts.

Potential Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown

Delays in regulatory reviews due to government shutdowns can impact deal timelines, affecting Moelis's ability to complete transactions and recognize revenue promptly.

Moelis Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory firm. It offers advisory services in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings, capital markets transactions, and other corporate finance matters. The company offers its services to public multinational corporations, middle market private companies, financial sponsors, entrepreneurs, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. The company serves its clients in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia. It has strategic alliances in Mexico with Alfaro, Dávila y Scherer, S.C.; and in Australia with MA Moelis Australia. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Moelis & Company generates revenue primarily through advisory fees earned from providing strategic advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and capital raising activities. The company charges fees based on the completion of transactions, which can vary depending on the complexity and scale of the advisory work. Key revenue streams include success fees from mergers and acquisitions, fees for financial restructuring services, and advisory fees related to capital markets transactions. Additionally, Moelis benefits from ongoing relationships with clients, leading to repeat business and referrals. The firm's reputation for high-quality service and its ability to navigate complex financial situations also contribute significantly to its earnings.

Moelis Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moelis demonstrates strong financial health with solid revenue growth, efficient operations, and robust cash flow generation. The company maintains a stable balance sheet with manageable leverage. However, attention should be given to past volatility in margins and cash levels to ensure continued financial stability.

Income Statement

The company's income statement shows strong revenue growth with a 15.9% increase in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) compared to the previous annual report. Gross profit margin is healthy at 32.1% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 17.7% and 18.3% respectively, reflecting operational efficiency. The net profit margin improved to 14.3% TTM, showcasing profitability. However, there was volatility in past EBIT margins, which should be monitored.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a solid equity ratio of 38.4% TTM, indicating a stable capital structure. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable at 0.42 TTM, suggesting moderate leverage. ROE is a strong 38.4% TTM, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, there has been a significant decrease in cash and cash equivalents over the last two years, which might affect liquidity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.48 TTM, indicating robust cash generation relative to profits. Free cash flow grew by 15.3% TTM, reflecting strong cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is impressive at 2.42 TTM, highlighting substantial free cash relative to net income. Despite this strength, past fluctuations in investing cash flow may pose future challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.47B	1.19B	854.75M	985.30M	1.54B	943.28M
Gross Profit	743.48M	1.19B	140.00M	367.10M	626.70M	382.47M
EBITDA	288.76M	183.39M	-32.03M	224.07M	503.16M	270.42M
Net Income	234.57M	136.02M	-24.70M	150.34M	365.21M	178.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.52B	1.38B	1.18B	1.22B	1.56B	1.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	281.58M	412.47M	186.42M	206.79M	520.21M	202.48M
Total Debt	0.00	223.24M	215.68M	192.76M	191.89M	196.61M
Total Liabilities	898.61M	899.55M	817.30M	757.93M	1.08B	751.97M
Stockholders Equity	535.03M	441.61M	352.14M	444.50M	489.07M	479.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	523.41M	415.39M	141.78M	27.04M	920.55M	388.56M
Operating Cash Flow	552.89M	427.49M	158.47M	32.99M	936.98M	429.21M
Investing Cash Flow	-182.55M	17.11M	48.57M	-11.18M	-17.01M	-39.95M
Financing Cash Flow	-231.35M	-215.10M	-229.17M	-326.90M	-602.54M	-351.79M

Moelis Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 70.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.65, above the 50-day MA of 65.72, and above the 200-day MA of 63.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MC.

Moelis Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MC	78 Outperform	$5.64B	23.44	51.98%	3.71%	51.19%	456.59%
EVR	76 Outperform	$13.24B	27.30	31.39%	0.98%	27.00%	63.47%
PJT	71 Outperform	$8.18B	25.87	91.85%	0.59%	23.16%	64.04%
HLI	70 Outperform	$12.37B	28.51	20.29%	1.34%	20.99%	25.02%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
LAZ	66 Neutral	$4.71B	19.72	36.41%	3.96%	1.58%	1.93%
LPLA	66 Neutral	$29.01B	33.36	21.32%	0.34%	35.19%	-18.62%

Moelis Corporate Events

Moelis Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance

On October 29, 2025, Moelis & Company reported a significant increase in its financial performance for the third quarter and the first nine months of 2025. The company’s adjusted revenues rose by 34% in the third quarter and 37% for the first nine months compared to the previous year. The firm also declared a regular quarterly dividend and highlighted its strategic growth through new hires in key sectors. Moelis & Company maintained a strong balance sheet with substantial cash reserves and no debt, further supporting its growth strategy.