Moelis (MC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.71B
• Dividend Yield: 3.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 641.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.41
• Revenue Growth: 51.19%
• EPS Growth: 456.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,308
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 1.13
• Shares Outstanding: 73,996,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 730,248
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 641,478
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 12.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.12
• 1Y Price Target: $79.00
• Price Target Upside: 11.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $77.00 ▲(8.62% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (profitability, cash flow strength, and a debt-free balance sheet) and supportive earnings updates showing robust segment growth and improving margins. These positives are partially offset by weak technical momentum (oversold indicators and price below key moving averages) and a valuation that is only moderately attractive despite a solid dividend.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

A debt-free balance sheet with ~$620M in cash provides durable financial flexibility: supports continuing dividends, buybacks and hiring while absorbing deal-timing variability. Strong liquidity reduces refinancing risk and funds strategic investments without eroding operating cash flow.

Sustained Revenue Momentum

Broad-based advisory growth and record quarterly/full-year revenue indicate durable demand across M&A and capital markets. Platform expansion and rising MD count support repeatable fee generation; diversified advisory streams reduce reliance on any single deal type over a multi-quarter horizon.

Improving Profitability

Material margin expansion implies improving operating leverage and cost discipline (including better compensation ratios). Higher sustainable pre-tax margins bolster cash generation, fund returns to shareholders, and provide a cushion against cyclical revenue swings across the advisory cycle.

Negative Factors

Regulatory/Deal-Timing Risk

Advisory fees depend on deal closings; regulatory slowdowns can delay or reduce transaction completions, creating lumpy revenue recognition. Persistent delays compress near-term fee flow and increase forecasting uncertainty for quarters ahead, stressing working capital and staffing plans.

Weakness in Capital Structure Advisory / Private Credit Risk

A drop in restructuring activity removes a consistent advisory revenue stream in stressed markets. Coupled with higher-profile defaults in private credit, this reduces transactional opportunities in a segment that can offset slower M&A periods, increasing cyclical exposure to deal volumes.

Historical Volatility in Growth and Margins

Past swings in revenue and margins highlight sensitivity to deal flow and market cycles. Even with recent improvements, variability complicates long-term forecasting and can force rapid cost adjustments or hiring freezes, weakening predictability of earnings and free cash flow generation.

Moelis Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory firm. It offers advisory services in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings, capital markets transactions, and other corporate finance matters. The company offers its services to public multinational corporations, middle market private companies, financial sponsors, entrepreneurs, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. The company serves its clients in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia. It has strategic alliances in Mexico with Alfaro, Dávila y Scherer, S.C.; and in Australia with MA Moelis Australia. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Moelis & Company generates revenue primarily through advisory fees earned from providing strategic advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and capital raising activities. The company charges fees based on the completion of transactions, which can vary depending on the complexity and scale of the advisory work. Key revenue streams include success fees from mergers and acquisitions, fees for financial restructuring services, and advisory fees related to capital markets transactions. Additionally, Moelis benefits from ongoing relationships with clients, leading to repeat business and referrals. The firm's reputation for high-quality service and its ability to navigate complex financial situations also contribute significantly to its earnings.

Moelis Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid TTM fundamentals: revenue growth of 6.01%, healthy profitability (gross margin 49.56%, net margin 15.98%), and particularly strong cash flow quality (operating cash flow coverage 170.44% and free cash flow growth 9.28%). Balance sheet strength is notable with no debt (D/E 0.00), though historical variability in growth and margins adds some volatility risk.

Income Statement

Moelis has shown a strong revenue growth of 6.01% in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) period, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin of 49.56% and net profit margin of 15.98% reflect solid profitability. However, past fluctuations in revenue growth and profitability margins suggest potential volatility.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00 in the TTM period, indicating no leverage risk. Return on equity is robust at 47.46%, showcasing efficient use of equity. Historical data shows some variability in equity returns and leverage, which could pose risks.

Cash Flow

Moelis demonstrates strong cash flow generation with an operating cash flow coverage ratio of 170.44% in the TTM period, indicating excellent cash flow relative to net income. Free cash flow growth of 9.28% further underscores positive cash flow dynamics. The company has consistently maintained high free cash flow to net income ratios, reflecting stable cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.47B	1.19B	854.75M	985.30M	1.54B	943.28M
Gross Profit	743.48M	1.19B	140.00M	367.10M	626.70M	382.47M
EBITDA	288.76M	183.39M	-32.03M	224.07M	503.16M	270.42M
Net Income	234.57M	136.02M	-24.70M	150.34M	365.21M	178.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.52B	1.38B	1.18B	1.22B	1.56B	1.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	281.58M	412.47M	186.42M	206.79M	520.21M	202.48M
Total Debt	267.74M	223.24M	215.68M	192.76M	191.89M	196.61M
Total Liabilities	898.61M	899.55M	817.30M	757.93M	1.08B	751.97M
Stockholders Equity	535.03M	441.61M	352.14M	444.50M	489.07M	479.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	523.41M	415.39M	141.78M	27.04M	920.55M	388.56M
Operating Cash Flow	552.89M	427.49M	158.47M	32.99M	936.98M	429.21M
Investing Cash Flow	-182.55M	17.11M	48.57M	-11.18M	-17.01M	-39.95M
Financing Cash Flow	-231.35M	-215.10M	-229.17M	-326.90M	-602.54M	-351.79M

Moelis Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 70.89
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 70.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.94, above the 50-day MA of 70.77, and above the 200-day MA of 65.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MC.

Moelis Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EVR	74 Outperform	$13.78B	24.11	―	0.95%	27.00%	63.47%
MC	71 Outperform	$5.71B	23.22	51.98%	3.69%	51.19%	456.59%
PJT	71 Outperform	$7.93B	24.04	―	0.58%	23.16%	64.04%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
LAZ	66 Neutral	$5.24B	21.55	30.80%	4.06%	1.58%	1.93%
HLI	64 Neutral	$11.68B	25.26	20.47%	1.33%	20.99%	25.02%
LPLA	63 Neutral	$31.13B	35.43	20.86%	0.32%	35.19%	-18.62%

Moelis Corporate Events

Moelis Reports Record Q4 Results and Expands Capital Returns

On February 4, 2026, Moelis & Company reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, posting record fourth-quarter revenues of $487.9 million, up 11% year-on-year, and full-year 2025 GAAP revenues of $1.52 billion, with adjusted revenues of $1.54 billion, 28% higher than 2024. GAAP diluted earnings were $1.10 per share for the quarter and $2.94 for the year, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.13 and $2.99 respectively, supported by an improved adjusted pre-tax margin of 21.5% for 2025 versus 16.4% in 2024 and aided by a tax benefit related to share-based awards. Reflecting confidence in its momentum and balance sheet strength, the firm declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share, secured Board approval for a new $300 million share repurchase authorization, and noted that it returned $283.6 million of capital to shareholders for the 2025 performance year, while continuing to expand its platform by promoting 25 advisory professionals to Managing Director across 2025 and early 2026 and adding a new Managing Director to its Private Capital Advisory team.

The most recent analyst rating on (MC) stock is a Hold with a $81.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moelis stock, see the MC Stock Forecast page.