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Xenon
(NASDAQ:XENE)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$74.00
▲(23.95% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid balance-sheet support but materially offset by persistent losses and heavy cash burn. Technicals show a strong uptrend but are short-term overextended (high RSI/Stoch), tempering the near-term setup. The latest earnings call was a major positive due to strong Phase 3 data and a clear regulatory path with funding runway, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet & runway
A strong, low‑leverage balance sheet with roughly $1.3B in cash provides multi‑year funding to complete pivotal filings, scale commercial launch preparations and advance multiple programs without immediate financing. This materially lowers solvency risk and supports strategic optionality through 2029.
Negative Factors
Sustained cash burn
Persistent high negative operating and free cash flow creates ongoing funding dependence. Even with current cash, continued burn requires careful capital planning; setbacks or slower revenue ramp would force additional financing, increasing dilution risk and constraining long‑term investment flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet & runway
A strong, low‑leverage balance sheet with roughly $1.3B in cash provides multi‑year funding to complete pivotal filings, scale commercial launch preparations and advance multiple programs without immediate financing. This materially lowers solvency risk and supports strategic optionality through 2029.
Read all positive factors
Xenon (XENE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.86B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.80M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-100.00%
EPS Growth-46.29%
CountryUS
Employees316
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.70
Shares Outstanding96,665,550
10 Day Avg. Volume2,504,002
30 Day Avg. Volume1,799,858
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)6.11
Price to Sales (P/S)473.62
P/FCF Ratio-12.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.53
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-46.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-9.18
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$75.77Price Target Upside26.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)-4.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.19M
Xenon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to discovering and advancing innovative treatments for individuals living with neurological disorders. The company operates primarily from its headquarters in Burna...
Xenon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed overwhelmingly positive clinical and corporate momentum: a highly favorable XTOL-2 Phase 3 data set with strong efficacy, long-term seizure freedom signals, a consistent safety profile, and a fortified balance sheet ($1.3B) supporting operations into 2029. The company has a clear regulatory path (NDA guidance for 2026) and active commercial and payer engagement. Remaining uncertainties are largely execution and timing risks (regulatory scheduling, commercial launch logistics, payer access) and limited near-term public granularity on Phase 1 pain data. On balance, the highlights are substantial and materially outweigh the modest operational and timing risks discussed.Positive Updates
Exceptional Phase 3 XTOL-2 Efficacy
XTOL-2 met its primary endpoint with median percent change (MPC) in monthly focal seizure frequency of 53.2% (25 mg), 34.5% (15 mg) versus 10.4% for placebo; placebo-adjusted MPC for 25 mg ~42.8 percentage points. Company described this as exceeding expectations and surpassing prior Phase 2b results.
Negative Updates
Cross-Trial Comparison Uncertainty and Competition
Management acknowledged challenges of cross-trial comparisons (e.g., to cenobamate/XCOPRI) due to differences in patient populations and titration regimens. Competitive landscape includes established agents (cenobamate, BRIVIACT) and uncertainty about real-world dosing of comparators (e.g., low uptake of 400 mg cenobamate).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Exceptional Phase 3 XTOL-2 Efficacy
XTOL-2 met its primary endpoint with median percent change (MPC) in monthly focal seizure frequency of 53.2% (25 mg), 34.5% (15 mg) versus 10.4% for placebo; placebo-adjusted MPC for 25 mg ~42.8 percentage points. Company described this as exceeding expectations and surpassing prior Phase 2b results.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Xenon guided that, after XTOL‑2 top‑line results announced in March, it plans to submit an NDA for AZK in 2026 (roughly six months after top‑line), expects a standard FDA review (~12 months) plus ~3 months for DEA scheduling, and therefore anticipates a U.S. launch in 2027 or early 2028; the company ended Q1 with $1.3 billion in cash, equivalents and marketable securities (up from $586 million at Dec 31) following a $747.5 million financing and expects this capital to fund operations into 2029. Key program timing guidance included top‑line EXNOVA‑2 Phase 3 MDD results in 2027, continuation of enrollment in EXACT (PGTCS) and other Phase 3 neuropsychiatry studies, and completion of first‑in‑human Phase 1 programs for XEN1701 and XEN1120 later this year with the intent to advance both to Phase II proof‑of‑concept. They also reiterated XTOL‑2 efficacy and safety metrics supporting the filing: median percent change in monthly focal seizure frequency of −53.2% (25 mg), −34.5% (15 mg) vs −10.4% placebo; baseline median 13 seizures/month, median five prior ASMs, >50% on three concomitant ASMs and ~60% who had used cenobamate; OLE 48‑month data showing a 91% reduction in monthly seizures (100% reduction for those on 1–2 ASMs vs 82% for those on three), ~40% seizure‑free ≥12 months and ~25% seizure‑free ≥24 months, RR100 in the double‑blind 25 mg arm 6.5% over 12 weeks (rising to 11.3% over the last 6 weeks and 13.7% over the last 4 weeks), and >800 patient‑years of safety exposure.Xenon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 7.50M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.43M | 18.44M |
| Gross Profit | -78.30M | 4.96M | -2.56M | -167.51M | 9.43M | 18.44M |
| EBITDA | -399.03M | -342.35M | -235.86M | -210.51M | -127.74M | -78.09M |
| Net Income | -383.17M | -345.91M | -234.33M | -182.39M | -125.37M | -78.88M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.39B | 981.67M | 798.14M | 964.80M | 754.15M | 572.01M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.09B | 548.89M | 626.90M | 638.08M | 592.09M | 551.77M |
| Total Debt | 7.49M | 7.94M | 9.02M | 10.90M | 10.44M | 8.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 48.99M | 399.91M | 43.24M | 36.88M | 32.65M | 21.97M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.34B | 581.76M | 754.90M | 927.92M | 721.50M | 550.03M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -307.25M | -279.92M | -184.46M | -150.94M | -101.32M | -71.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -306.36M | -279.12M | -181.39M | -145.33M | -98.43M | -69.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -223.79M | 218.00M | 165.00M | -117.17M | -296.00M | -246.77M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 958.98M | 117.11M | 12.13M | 353.52M | 278.47M | 447.54M |
Xenon Technical Analysis
Positive
59.70
Price Trends
56.20
Positive
54.58
Positive
48.12
Positive
Market Momentum
3.71
Negative
77.00
Negative
85.94
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XENE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 59.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.59, above the 50-day MA of 56.20, and above the 200-day MA of 48.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.00 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.94 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XENE.
Xenon Risk Analysis
Xenon disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Xenon reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Xenon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $6.86B | ― | -49.23% | ― | -100.00% | -46.29% | |
56 Neutral | $4.78B | -9.38 | -71.31% | ― | ― | -259.98% | |
55 Neutral | $2.55B | -13.71 | -27.92% | ― | ― | 44.87% | |
54 Neutral | $3.41B | -5.52 | 1566.94% | ― | 13.33% | -3.82% | |
53 Neutral | $8.44B | -14.29 | -68.16% | ― | ― | -1.22% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $6.94B | ― | -163.52% | ― | ― | -35.59% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
XENE
Xenon
68.92
36.32
111.41%
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IMVT
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MLYS
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28.38
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88.95%
Xenon Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Xenon Shareholders Approve Directors, Pay and Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
Xenon held its annual meeting of shareholders, where approximately 93.54% of common shares entitled to vote were represented. Shareholders elected eight directors, including Dawn Svoronos and Gillian Cannon, to serve until the 2027 annual meeting ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Xenon Highlights Positive Phase 3 Azetukalner Seizure Data
Positive
May 7, 2026
Xenon Pharmaceuticals reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 7, highlighting positive Phase 3 X-TOLE2 data for azetukalner in focal onset seizures that exceeded prior studies and underpin plans for a U.S. regulatory filing in the third quarter...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xenon Expands 2025 Inducement Equity Incentive Plan
Neutral
Apr 13, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. amended and restated its 2025 Inducement Equity Incentive Plan to increase the maximum number of common shares reserved for issuance from 900,000 to 1,175,000, subject to adjustment. The expanded pool w...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.