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Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)
NASDAQ:APLS
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Apellis Pharmaceuticals
(NASDAQ:APLS)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$23.00
▲(3.93% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profitability and cash flow turning positive and a delevered balance sheet) and a constructive earnings call (EMPAVELI launch momentum and supportive SYFOVRE demand/data), partially offset by weak technical trend signals and a high P/E that leaves less margin for execution errors amid ongoing net revenue headwinds (free goods/gross-to-net) and near-term variability.
Positive Factors
SYFOVRE market leadership & durable efficacy
Five‑year GALE extension results showing ~1.5 years slower GA progression provide durable clinical differentiation for SYFOVRE. Long‑term efficacy supports physician prescribing, payer preference and sustained patient retention, underpinning predictable recurring revenue over multi‑year horizons.
EMPAVELI early launch traction and coverage
Strong early commercial metrics and broad published payer coverage indicate effective market access execution for EMPAVELI. For ultra‑rare indications, rapid starts and high reimbursements reduce adoption friction and increase probability of sizable, durable peak sales if additional nephrology indications succeed.
Improved cash generation and delevered balance sheet
Transition to positive operating and free cash flow with a cleaner leverage profile meaningfully improves financial flexibility. A $466M cash balance and low debt‑to‑equity reduce near‑term refinancing risk and support self‑funding of pivotal trials and commercial scale‑up over the next 2–3 years.
Negative Factors
Revenue volatility and 2025 decline
A 32% revenue drop in 2025 highlights fragile top‑line durability despite attractive gross margins. Episodic one‑time items (Sobi payment) and volatile launch cadence for rare disease therapies mean future revenue can swing materially, stressing execution and forecasting reliability.
High gross-to-net & elevated free‑goods
Elevated free‑goods use and rising gross‑to‑net pressures compress net realized revenue from injections. Structural payer dynamics and patient assistance programs can keep net conversion rates suppressed, reducing cash conversion of demand and raising sensitivity of margins to commercial mix shifts.
Near‑term financing and higher R&D/opex needs
A near‑term $94M convertible maturity combined with increased 2026 operating spend for pivotal studies tightens the funding runway. While cash is material, funding choices could force reprioritization, additional borrowing, or equity issuance, each of which materially affects long‑term strategic flexibility.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.80B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)74.5
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth42.11%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees705
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.47
Shares Outstanding126,525,215
10 Day Avg. Volume1,611,019
30 Day Avg. Volume3,034,327
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.15Price Target Upside40.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionApellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutic compounds through the inhibition of the complement system for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. The company's lead product candidate is pegcetacoplan that is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of geographic atrophy (GA) in age-related macular degeneration and paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) diseases. It also develops EMPAVELI (systemic pegcetacoplan) for the treatment of cold agglutinin disease (CAD), and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA) in hematology; C3 glomerulopathy (C3G), and immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN) in nephrology; and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in neurology. In addition, the company develops APL-2006, a bispecific C3 and VEGF inhibitor for treating complement-mediated disorders; APL-1030, a C3 inhibitor for the treatment of multiple neurodegenerative diseases; and the combination of EMPAVELI and a small interfering RNA, or siRNA for reducing the production of C3 proteins by the liver. It has a collaboration and license agreement with Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (publ) to co-develop pegcetacoplan; and a research collaboration with Beam Therapeutics Inc. focused on the use of Beam's base editing technology to discover new treatments for complement-driven diseases. Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyApellis Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its therapies, with Pegcetacoplan being its lead product contributing significantly to earnings following its approval. The company employs a direct sales model to distribute its products, allowing it to capture a larger portion of the market revenue. Additionally, Apellis may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies or research institutions, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales. These partnerships not only bolster Apellis' financial resources but also enhance its research and development capabilities, driving future revenue growth.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down total revenue by business segments, offering a clear view of which areas contribute most to the company's financial health and where strategic focus might be needed.
Breaks down total revenue by business segments, offering a clear view of which areas contribute most to the company's financial health and where strategic focus might be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyApellis Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple commercial and scientific positives: robust EMPAVELI early launch metrics (>5% market penetration, 267 start forms), SYFOVRE injection growth (~17% YoY) and strong 5‑year clinical data, a progressing pipeline with upcoming readouts and regulatory milestones, and a solid cash position ($466M). Offsetting these strengths are near-term revenue headwinds from elevated free goods and high gross-to-net adjustments (mid‑to‑high‑20% range), seasonal and quarter-to-quarter variability for launches in ultra-rare populations, modestly higher 2026 operating expenses to fund pivotal trials, and a $94M convertible debt maturing in 2026. Overall, the highlights around commercial traction, data readouts, pipeline advancement and financial flexibility outweigh the challenges, though execution risks and revenue timing uncertainty remain.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Revenue with One-Time Benefit
Total revenue for FY2025 was $1.0 billion, which includes a one-time $275 million upfront payment from the Sobi royalty repurchase agreement that materially contributed to full-year results.
SYFOVRE Commercial Momentum — Injection Growth
SYFOVRE total injections grew approximately 17% year‑over‑year in 2025, demonstrating underlying demand and resilience despite revenue headwinds; Q4 SYFOVRE net product revenue was $155 million and full-year net product revenue was $587 million.
Compelling 5-Year GALE Data for SYFOVRE
Post-hoc 5-year GALE extension data showed SYFOVRE delayed progression of geographic atrophy by approximately 1.5 years in nonsubfoveal GA versus sham, supporting long-term clinical benefit and differentiation.
EMPAVELI Early Launch Outperformance
EMPAVELI achieved more than 5% market penetration after its first full quarter on the market, reported U.S. net product revenue of $35 million in Q4 and $102 million for FY2025, and accumulated 267 cumulative patient start forms by year-end, signaling strong early uptake.
Broad Payer Coverage for EMPAVELI
Published payer policies reimburse EMPAVELI to label or with minimal restrictions for approximately 95% of policies, supporting access and adoption.
Durable Market Position in Geographic Atrophy
SYFOVRE continues to lead the GA market with roughly 60% market share and is supported by extensive clinical and real-world evidence (including 5-year data), preferred payer status and initiatives to improve workflow and adoption.
Pipeline Advancement and Milestones
Key pipeline progress: pivotal trials underway for EMPAVELI in FSGS and DGF; Phase II combo (SYFOVRE + APL-3007) ongoing with topline expected in 2027; IND for APL-9099 (FcRn base editing) planned in H2 2026; prefilled syringe regulatory submission targeted in H1 2026; OCT-F research availability planned H2 2026.
Scientific and Publication Recognition
EMPAVELI data published in the New England Journal of Medicine and multiple oral presentations at Macula Society and other conferences reinforce clinical credibility and physician receptivity.
Solid Cash Position and Financial Flexibility
Cash and cash equivalents of $466 million at year-end 2025, supporting near-term operations and self-funding ambitions for the pipeline while providing flexibility to address capital needs.
Negative Updates
SYFOVRE Revenue Impacted by Elevated Free Goods
Full-year SYFOVRE revenue was modestly down versus 2024 largely due to elevated use of free goods (approximate free goods range of 12%–14% through 2025), which reduced reported net revenue despite higher injections.
High Gross-to-Net Adjustments
SYFOVRE gross-to-net adjustments in Q4 trended just above the mid-20% range, and management expects gross-to-net in the high-20% range in 2026, exerting pressure on net realized revenue.
Quarter-to-Quarter Variability and Seasonality Risks
Management highlighted typical seasonal dynamics (e.g., Medicare reverifications, holidays) and potential quarter-to-quarter variability for EMPAVELI due to ultra-rare disease patient flow, adding uncertainty to near-term revenue cadence.
Operating Expense Increase and Future Investment Needs
Operating expenses rose to $251 million in Q4 2025 (from $239 million prior-year Q4); 2026 guidance anticipates modestly higher operating expenses due to pivotal trial investments and milestone payments, partially offset by reduced SG&A.
Convertible Debt Maturity
Approximately $94 million of convertible debt matures in September 2026; management is evaluating alternatives to address this obligation, representing a near-term financing consideration.
Uncertainty Around Patient Assistance Program Dynamics
Third-party co-pay assistance programs began reopening to new patients late in the period, but visibility on how much patient access and free goods utilization will change over time remains limited and could affect future net sales.
Revenue Comparability Affected by One-Time Items
Full-year 2025 revenue comparability is materially influenced by the one-time $275 million Sobi-related payment, complicating a straight-line assessment of underlying organic revenue growth.
Company Guidance
Apellis guided that 2026 will see gross-to-net for SYFOVRE move to the high‑20% range (from just above the mid‑20% in Q4), with net price expected to remain relatively stable and a modest inventory reduction in Q1 amid typical seasonal Medicare reverifications; operating expenses are expected to be modestly higher in 2026 (Q4 opex was $251M vs $239M LY) due to pivotal trials (FSGS, DGF) and milestones but partially offset by lower SG&A, while the company exited 2025 with $466M cash, ~ $94M convertible debt maturing in September, and expects to self‑fund the pipeline. For context, full‑year 2025 revenue was $1.0B (Q4 $200M) including a $275M one‑time Sobi payment; SYFOVRE net product revenue was $155M in Q4 and $587M FY with ~102,000 Q4 doses delivered (≈89,000 commercial, ≈13,000 free goods), total injections up ~17% YoY and free‑goods use ~12–14% in 2025; EMPAVELI U.S. net product revenue was $35M in Q4 and $102M FY, achieved >5% market penetration after its first full quarter, had 267 cumulative patient start forms at year‑end, 95% of published payer policies reimbursing to label or with minimal restrictions, and management reiterated a path to blockbuster potential (addressable ~5,000 U.S. C3G/IC‑MPGN patients with up to 50% peak penetration).Apellis Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are improving but uneven: 2025 flipped to positive operating profit/net income with very strong gross margins (~85%+), operating cash flow and free cash flow turned positive (~$45M), and leverage improved markedly (debt-to-equity ~0.30). Offsetting this, revenue fell sharply in 2025 (-32%) and both earnings/cash flow have shown volatility, keeping overall quality and durability below top-tier.Income Statement
Profitability inflected meaningfully in 2025 as the company moved to positive operating profit and net income (about 3% net margin) after large losses in 2021–2024. Gross margins remain very strong (~85%+), consistent with an attractive product economics profile. The key offset is growth volatility: revenue fell sharply in 2025 (-32%) following a strong ramp in 2023–2024, which raises questions around durability and near-term momentum.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage improved substantially in 2025: debt is modest versus equity (debt-to-equity ~0.30) compared with elevated leverage in 2024 (~2.06). Equity increased and returns turned positive in 2025 (about 6% return on equity) after deeply negative returns in prior years, signaling a cleaner capital structure and improving financial flexibility. A remaining watch item is the history of large losses in prior years, which can re-emerge if revenue softness persists.66
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation turned positive in 2025 with operating cash flow and free cash flow both positive (~$45M), a clear improvement versus materially negative cash burn in 2021–2024. Free cash flow roughly matched net income in 2025, suggesting earnings quality improved. The main weakness is that free cash flow declined versus 2024 (down ~42%), and the prior-year pattern shows meaningful cash flow volatility.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 689.38M | 781.37M | 396.59M | 75.42M | 66.56M |
| Gross Profit | 587.15M | 663.64M | 338.08M | 69.79M | 61.36M |
| EBITDA | 68.44M | -154.53M | -495.21M | -617.39M | -731.27M |
| Net Income | 22.39M | -197.88M | -528.63M | -652.17M | -746.35M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.08B | 885.05M | 788.73M | 760.22M | 881.76M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 466.23M | 416.14M | 352.30M | 551.80M | 701.23M |
| Total Debt | 112.70M | 469.78M | 110.93M | 112.71M | 210.22M |
| Total Liabilities | 705.11M | 656.51M | 594.21M | 590.35M | 683.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 370.15M | 228.54M | 194.52M | 169.87M | 198.66M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 45.33M | -88.27M | -595.51M | -515.27M | -564.23M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 45.33M | -87.87M | -594.74M | -513.75M | -563.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -313.00K | -403.00K | -674.00K | 59.89M | 247.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.88M | 149.24M | 394.50M | 365.66M | 392.24M |
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Negative
22.13
Price Trends
23.37
Negative
23.20
Negative
22.30
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Negative
46.78
Neutral
59.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APLS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.54, below the 50-day MA of 23.37, and below the 200-day MA of 22.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APLS.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis
Apellis Pharmaceuticals disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Apellis Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $4.56B | -9.82 | -44.42% | ― | ― | -21.96% | |
58 Neutral | $2.80B | 74.54 | 14.10% | ― | 42.11% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $6.44B | -124.72 | -15.81% | ― | 53.66% | 58.63% | |
55 Neutral | $1.30B | -5.47 | -54.17% | ― | ― | -157.74% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $2.16B | -9.93 | -28.97% | ― | 23.73% | 30.16% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.