Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) AI Stock Analysis

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Apellis Pharmaceuticals

(NASDAQ:APLS)

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Neutral 50 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:50Neutral

Price Target:

$21.50

▼(-18.84% Downside)

The overall stock score reflects a mixed outlook for Apellis Pharmaceuticals. Financial performance shows improvement, particularly in cash flow, but revenue growth and profitability remain volatile. Technical analysis indicates mixed momentum with potential overbought conditions. The high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, adding risk if earnings do not meet expectations. The earnings call provided positive guidance, but challenges remain in revenue growth and patient access.

Positive Factors

FDA Approval of EMPAVELI

The FDA approval of EMPAVELI expands Apellis's market, potentially increasing revenue and strengthening its position in the nephrology sector.

Strong Financial Position

A robust cash position allows Apellis to invest in R&D and strategic initiatives, supporting sustainable growth and innovation.

SYFOVRE Market Leadership

SYFOVRE's market leadership in geographic atrophy provides a stable revenue stream and reinforces Apellis's competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

Challenges with SYFOVRE Revenue

Revenue challenges from free drug programs could impact profitability and hinder the ability to reinvest in growth opportunities.

Low Treatment Rate for Geographic Atrophy

The low treatment rate for geographic atrophy limits market penetration and revenue potential for Apellis's therapies.

Operational Challenges in Patient Access

Patient access issues could limit therapy adoption, affecting revenue growth and market expansion efforts for Apellis.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.03B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.98M

Price to Earnings (P/E)89.2

Beta (1Y)0.94

Revenue Growth42.11%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees705

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength45

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.67

Shares Outstanding126,525,215

10 Day Avg. Volume1,360,698

30 Day Avg. Volume1,984,899

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.31

Price to Book (P/B)17.30

Price to Sales (P/S)5.06

P/FCF Ratio-44.79

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.89

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.26

Enterprise Value/Ebitda31.47

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$43.25

Price Target Upside63.27% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering14

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionApellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutic compounds through the inhibition of the complement system for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. The company's lead product candidate is pegcetacoplan that is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of geographic atrophy (GA) in age-related macular degeneration and paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) diseases. It also develops EMPAVELI (systemic pegcetacoplan) for the treatment of cold agglutinin disease (CAD), and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA) in hematology; C3 glomerulopathy (C3G), and immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN) in nephrology; and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in neurology. In addition, the company develops APL-2006, a bispecific C3 and VEGF inhibitor for treating complement-mediated disorders; APL-1030, a C3 inhibitor for the treatment of multiple neurodegenerative diseases; and the combination of EMPAVELI and a small interfering RNA, or siRNA for reducing the production of C3 proteins by the liver. It has a collaboration and license agreement with Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (publ) to co-develop pegcetacoplan; and a research collaboration with Beam Therapeutics Inc. focused on the use of Beam's base editing technology to discover new treatments for complement-driven diseases. Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes MoneyApellis Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its therapies, with Pegcetacoplan being its lead product contributing significantly to earnings following its approval. The company employs a direct sales model to distribute its products, allowing it to capture a larger portion of the market revenue. Additionally, Apellis may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies or research institutions, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales. These partnerships not only bolster Apellis' financial resources but also enhance its research and development capabilities, driving future revenue growth.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Product Revenue by Segment

Product Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different product lines, providing insight into which segments are driving growth and how diversified the company's income streams are.

Chart InsightsApellis Pharmaceuticals' SYFOVRE segment is driving growth with a strong market position, despite revenue impacts from high free goods usage. EMPAVELI's revenue saw a modest increase, supported by recent FDA approvals. The company's strategic moves, including a significant cash infusion from Sobi, bolster financial stability. However, challenges with co-pay assistance and flat commercial vial growth for SYFOVRE highlight potential revenue constraints. Management remains optimistic about achieving sustainable profitability, leveraging their robust cash position and market leadership in geographic atrophy.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflected significant progress with the FDA approval of EMPAVELI and strong market leadership of SYFOVRE. However, challenges in SYFOVRE revenue due to free drug programs and operational challenges in patient access were notable concerns.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

FDA Approval of EMPAVELI

EMPAVELI was approved for treating patients 12 years and older with C3 glomerulopathy (C3G) or primary immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN), expanding the addressable market by approximately 5,000 patients.

SYFOVRE Market Leadership

SYFOVRE maintained its leading position, accounting for an estimated 52% of new patient starts and more than 60% of the overall market.

Strong Financial Performance

Total revenue for the third quarter was $459 million, including a $275 million upfront payment from Sobi.

Positive EMPAVELI Launch Feedback

The market feedback for EMPAVELI has been exceptionally positive, highlighting its ease of use and the convenience of twice-weekly dosing.

Continued Injection Growth for SYFOVRE

SYFOVRE experienced a 4% growth in total estimated injections during the quarter.

Negative Updates

Challenges with SYFOVRE Revenue

SYFOVRE revenue faced a $15 million headwind due to elevated use of free goods, slightly higher than expected.

Low Treatment Rate for Geographic Atrophy

Only about 10% of patients diagnosed with geographic atrophy are currently treated with complement inhibitors.

Headwinds from Free Drug Programs

Free drug programs have been a nearly $40 million headwind to SYFOVRE revenue through the first three quarters.

Operational Challenges in Patient Access

Operational challenges related to patient access and co-pay assistance have been significant headwinds affecting market growth.

Company Guidance

During the Apellis Pharmaceuticals Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance indicating significant progress and strategic initiatives to drive future growth. The key highlight was the FDA approval of EMPAVELI for C3 glomerulopathy and IC-MPGN, expanding its market by approximately 5,000 patients. This approval is expected to deliver meaningful results across proteinuria reduction, eGFR stabilization, and substantial C3 deposit clearance. Apellis is also preparing to launch EMPAVELI with a target of 225 cumulative patient start forms by the end of the year and has scaled its field teams to 100 people to cover U.S. nephrologists. For SYFOVRE, which has demonstrated a 4% injection growth this quarter, the company anticipates steady growth driven by new tools and market education initiatives over the next 12 to 18 months. Financially, total revenue for the quarter was $459 million, including $151 million from SYFOVRE and $27 million from EMPAVELI across all indications, with a noted $15 million revenue headwind from free goods. Apellis remains confident in its long-term market strategy and the transformative impact of its therapies, supported by a strong cash position of $475 million, allowing for further pipeline advancements.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Apellis Pharmaceuticals shows improvement in cash flow and leverage, with a strong recovery in free cash flow and reduced debt-to-equity ratio. However, challenges remain in maintaining consistent revenue growth and profitability, as evidenced by historical volatility and a slight decline in revenue.

Income Statement

Apellis Pharmaceuticals shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a gross profit margin of 84.53%, which is strong, but the net profit margin is relatively low at 6.12%. Revenue has slightly declined by 2.53% in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are positive in the TTM, showing improvement from previous years, but historical data shows significant losses, highlighting volatility in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly to 0.28 in the TTM, indicating reduced leverage compared to previous years. Return on equity is positive at 18.94%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, historical high leverage and negative ROE in previous years suggest past financial instability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a strong recovery in free cash flow, with a growth rate of 1681.56% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.28, indicating some efficiency in converting income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, suggesting that the company is generating cash flow in line with its net income, a positive sign for liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.02B	781.37M	396.59M	75.42M	66.56M	250.65M
Gross Profit	902.58M	663.64M	338.08M	69.79M	61.36M	225.60M
EBITDA	93.37M	-154.53M	-495.21M	-617.39M	-731.27M	-312.23M
Net Income	44.99M	-197.88M	-528.63M	-652.17M	-746.35M	-344.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.06B	885.05M	788.73M	760.22M	881.76M	960.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	479.17M	416.14M	352.30M	551.80M	701.23M	877.65M
Total Debt	475.37M	469.78M	110.93M	112.71M	210.22M	377.73M
Total Liabilities	657.55M	656.51M	594.21M	590.35M	683.10M	756.01M
Stockholders Equity	401.17M	228.54M	194.52M	169.87M	198.66M	204.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	78.64M	-88.27M	-595.51M	-515.27M	-564.23M	-165.91M
Operating Cash Flow	78.86M	-87.87M	-594.74M	-513.75M	-563.13M	-160.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-225.00K	-403.00K	-674.00K	59.89M	247.62M	-316.99M
Financing Cash Flow	3.63M	149.24M	394.50M	365.66M	392.24M	692.18M

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price26.49

Price Trends

50DMA

22.92

Positive

100DMA

24.26

Positive

200DMA

21.93

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.68

Positive

RSI

62.34

Neutral

STOCH

43.00

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APLS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.99, above the 50-day MA of 22.92, and above the 200-day MA of 21.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APLS.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis

Apellis Pharmaceuticals disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Apellis Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRNX	59 Neutral	$4.36B	-11.76	-44.42%	―	―	-21.96%
MIRM	56 Neutral	$3.95B	-95.13	-15.81%	―	53.66%	58.63%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
APLS	50 Neutral	$3.03B	89.22	14.10%	―	42.11%	―
MLTX	48 Neutral	$797.24M	―	-54.17%	―	―	-157.74%
ZLAB	48 Neutral	$2.07B	-9.76	-28.96%	―	23.73%	30.16%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

APLS

Apellis Pharmaceuticals

26.49

-0.95

-3.46%

ZLAB

Zai Lab

19.03

-6.27

-24.78%

CRNX

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals

53.34

12.75

31.41%

MIRM

Mirum Pharmaceuticals

81.98

40.66

98.40%

MLTX

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

11.29

-35.03

-75.63%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 28, 2025