ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) AI Stock Analysis

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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

(NASDAQ:ACAD)

Rating:79Outperform

Price Target:

$25.00

▲( 16.01% Upside)

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' strong financial performance and positive earnings call are key strengths, driving a favorable overall score. Technical indicators show bullish momentum, though caution is advised due to overbought conditions. The company's valuation is reasonable, and recent corporate events further bolster its strategic position.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Nuplazid's extended patent protection is expected to generate an additional $4.6 billion in cumulative sales post-2030.

Patent Ruling

The positive ruling for Acadia in the ‘721 formulation patent lawsuit is great news and an upside surprise.

Negative Factors

Regulatory Challenges

Nuplazid still faces challenges from the Medicare Part-D and from the IRA pricing negotiations if selected.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.61B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.53M

Price to Earnings (P/E)15.7

Beta (1Y)1.27

Revenue Growth22.42%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees653

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength43

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.11

Shares Outstanding167,361,850

10 Day Avg. Volume4,295,402

30 Day Avg. Volume2,527,631

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.15

Price to Book (P/B)3.39

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio15.90

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$27.35

Price Target Upside26.91% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of small molecule drugs that address unmet medical needs in central nervous system disorders. The company offers NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) for the treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis. It's pipeline include, pimavanserin, under phase 3 development for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease psychosis, and negative symptoms of schizophrenia; Trofinetide, a novel synthetic analog, under phase 3 development for the treatment of Rett syndrome; ACP-044, a novel first-in-class orally administered non-opioid analgesic, under phase 2 development for treating acute and chronic pain; and ACP-319, a positive allosteric modulator of the muscarinic receptor, under phase 1 development for treating schizophrenia and cognition in Alzheimer's. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyACADIA Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the sales of its commercial product, NUPLAZID. The company focuses on expanding the drug's market presence by seeking additional indications for use, thereby increasing its potential patient base. ACADIA also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its research and development capabilities, which may result in milestone and royalty payments. Furthermore, the company invests in ongoing clinical trials to develop new products and extend the utility of existing ones, aiming to diversify its revenue streams in the future.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Product

Revenue by Product
Shows earnings from individual products, highlighting which offerings drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments. This helps assess product portfolio strength and market positioning.

Chart InsightsACADIA Pharmaceuticals is experiencing robust growth in its key products, with NUPLAZID and DAYBUE showing significant revenue increases. NUPLAZID's revenue surged by 23% due to a one-time adjustment, while DAYBUE's sales rose by 11%, despite a sequential decline attributed to seasonality and prior quarter pull-forward. The company is strategically expanding its pipeline and preparing for DAYBUE's European launch, indicating strong future prospects. However, increased R&D expenses and the discontinuation of certain programs highlight ongoing challenges in balancing growth and operational costs.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals has demonstrated a strong financial performance with significant improvements across income, balance sheet, and cash flow metrics. The company has transitioned to profitability with robust revenue and profit growth, maintained a stable balance sheet with low leverage, and improved cash flow metrics indicating solid cash generation capabilities.

Income Statement

Very Positive

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals has shown a strong improvement in its income statement. The gross profit margin for 2024 is robust at 91.47%, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin also turned positive to 23.64%, indicating profitability compared to losses in previous years. Revenue grew by 31.87% from 2023 to 2024, a strong upward trajectory. The EBIT and EBITDA margins both improved to 24.09%, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is solid with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, suggesting low leverage and financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) is remarkable at 30.90%, indicating effective utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is at a healthy 61.69%, reflecting a strong equity position. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates stability with low risk due to minimal debt.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals has shown significant improvement in cash flow metrics. The free cash flow growth rate is substantial, turning from negative to positive free cash flow of $157 million in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 0.70, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.69, demonstrating strong cash conversion efficiency.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
957.80M	726.44M	517.24M	484.14M	441.75M
	Gross Profit
875.96M	680.71M	507.07M	465.00M	421.20M
	EBIT
230.79M	-73.38M	-223.60M	-170.44M	-286.59M
	EBITDA
100.16M	-67.83M	-221.57M	-167.09M	-286.59M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
226.45M	-61.29M	-215.97M	-167.87M	-281.58M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
755.99M	438.87M	416.82M	520.71M	631.96M
	Total Assets
1.19B	748.96M	587.81M	700.12M	782.62M
	Total Debt
51.99M	57.20M	62.00M	56.13M	44.46M
	Net Debt
-267.59M	-131.45M	-52.85M	-91.31M	-281.57M
	Total Liabilities
454.96M	317.20M	187.40M	159.23M	155.61M
	Stockholders Equity
732.79M	431.75M	400.41M	540.89M	627.01M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
157.20M	-23.35M	-114.03M	-126.78M	-143.75M
	Operating Cash Flow
157.72M	16.70M	-114.03M	-125.66M	-136.17M
	Investing Cash Flow
-30.54M	32.00M	73.24M	-71.10M	192.51M
	Financing Cash Flow
6.84M	25.13M	8.20M	18.16M	81.00M

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price21.55

Price Trends

50DMA

16.54

Positive

100DMA

17.47

Positive

200DMA

16.74

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.72

Negative

RSI

76.59

Negative

STOCH

58.94

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACAD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.64, above the 50-day MA of 16.54, and above the 200-day MA of 16.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.59 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACAD.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks

You should consider carefully the following information about the risks described below, together with the other information contained in this Quarterly Report and in our other public filings in evaluating our business. The risk factors set forth below that are marked with an asterisk (*) did not appear as separate risk factors in, or contain changes to the similarly titled risk factor included in, Item 1A of our Annual Report. If any of the following risks actually occurs, our business, financial condition, results of operations, and future growth prospects would likely be materially and adversely affected. In these circumstances, the market price of our common stock would likely decline. Q2, 2023

We could face liability if a regulatory authority determines that we are promoting NUPLAZID or DAYBUE for any "off-label" uses.* Q2, 2023

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (53)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACAD	79 Outperform	$3.61B	15.69	37.24%	―	22.42%	―
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.14B	3.06	-43.57%	2.81%	16.81%	-0.12%
APLS	50 Neutral	$2.23B	―	-103.82%	―	48.04%	48.16%
MRUS	46 Neutral	$2.88B	―	-58.66%	―	42.77%	-51.27%
IMVT	45 Neutral	$2.47B	―	-74.17%	―	―	-43.10%
IBRX	43 Neutral	$2.37B	―	78.99%	―	10238.41%	47.67%
MLTX	41 Neutral	$2.47B	―	-30.57%	―	―	-147.80%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ACAD

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

21.98

6.78

44.61%

IBRX

ImmunityBio

2.53

-3.99

-61.20%

MRUS

Merus

55.14

-4.85

-8.08%

APLS

Apellis Pharmaceuticals

17.44

-23.17

-57.05%

IMVT

Immunovant

14.46

-14.49

-50.05%

MLTX

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

38.93

-1.92

-4.70%

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 45.51%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with significant revenue growth in key products and accelerated progress in the pipeline, despite some challenges with sequential sales decline and increased R&D expenses.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth

First quarter 2025 revenues reached $244.3 million, up 19% from the previous year.

DAYBUE Sales Increase

DAYBUE sales were $84.6 million in the first quarter, marking an 11% increase from the previous year with 954 unique patients, an all-time record for the brand.

NUPLAZID Revenue Growth

NUPLAZID reported first quarter sales of $159.7 million, up 23% from the prior year, with 6% growth in volume.

Accelerated Pipeline Progress

The timeline for the COMPASS PWS Phase 3 trial has accelerated, with top-line results expected by early fourth quarter 2025.

European Expansion Plans

Preparations for European launch of DAYBUE are underway, with regulatory approval anticipated in Q1 2026.

Negative Updates

Sequential Decline in DAYBUE Sales

DAYBUE sales were down sequentially from the previous quarter due to factors including a $3.5 million pull forward in Q4 and seasonality.

Increased R&D Expenses

R&D expenses rose to $78.3 million, up from $59.7 million in the prior year, due to increased spend on clinical programs.

Discontinuation of Programs

ACADIA has decided to wind down efforts for two programs in collaboration with Stokes Therapeutics due to lack of a viable path forward.

Company Guidance

During ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' first quarter 2025 conference call, the company outlined its strong financial performance and strategic initiatives. The call highlighted a 19% increase in total revenue, reaching $244.3 million, with DAYBUE and NUPLAZID sales rising by 11% and 23%, respectively. DAYBUE achieved $84.6 million in sales with 954 unique patients, while NUPLAZID recorded $159.7 million in revenue. The persistency rate for DAYBUE remained above 50% after 12 months, and NUPLAZID benefited from a one-time gross-to-net adjustment. The company reiterated its full-year guidance for both products and raised its R&D expense projection to $330-350 million. ACADIA also accelerated its COMPASS PWS Phase 3 study timeline, expecting results by the end of 2025. Internationally, plans are underway for DAYBUE's European launch, with anticipated EMA approval in early 2026. The company emphasized its commitment to strategic priorities, including expanding its commercial reach and advancing its pipeline.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Wins Favorable Patent Court Ruling

Positive

May 20, 2025

On May 15, 2025, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals entered into a 12-year lease agreement for new executive office space at 210 Carnegie Center in Princeton, New Jersey, with plans for commercial, research, and development activities. The company will pay an initial annual rent of $1,899,756, with incremental increases, and is responsible for operating expenses and property taxes. Additionally, ACADIA announced a favorable court ruling on May 16, 2025, regarding its formulation patent for NUPLAZID®, securing its position against competitors Aurobindo Pharma and MSN Laboratories.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACAD) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock, see the ACAD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.