Vale SA (VALE)
NYSE:VALE
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Vale SA
(NYSE:VALE)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-3.97% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is primarily supported by stable financial footing and a constructive technical setup (price above key moving averages with positive momentum), plus a favorable earnings-call tone with reiterated guidance and disciplined capital allocation. Offsetting these are materially weaker post-peak profitability and cash flows, and a less attractive valuation for a cyclical company due to the high P/E despite the strong dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Low-cost iron‑ore producer & integrated logistics
Vale’s position at the low end of the global iron‑ore cost curve (all‑in ≈$54/t in 2025) plus owned rail/port logistics creates durable margin resilience. This structural cost and logistics advantage reduces downside in weaker cycles, preserves contract competitiveness and supports reliable long‑term offtake relationships.
Negative Factors
Earnings and FCF normalization from 2021 peaks
Vale’s profitability and cash generation have materially normalized from 2021–2022 peaks, highlighting persistent commodity price sensitivity. Lower net income and reduced OCF/FCF constrain reinvestment capacity and make sustained shareholder distributions and project funding more contingent on favorable market cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low-cost iron‑ore producer & integrated logistics
Vale’s position at the low end of the global iron‑ore cost curve (all‑in ≈$54/t in 2025) plus owned rail/port logistics creates durable margin resilience. This structural cost and logistics advantage reduces downside in weaker cycles, preserves contract competitiveness and supports reliable long‑term offtake relationships.
Read all positive factors
Vale SA (VALE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$69.11B
Dividend Yield10.04%
Average Volume (3M)30.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.5
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth-8.49%
EPS Growth-41.69%
CountryUS
Employees64,616
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.90
Shares Outstanding4,539,008,000
10 Day Avg. Volume27,065,808
30 Day Avg. Volume30,837,880
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)1.65
Price to Sales (P/S)1.45
P/FCF Ratio18.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.36Price Target Upside7.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$41.09B
Vale SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells iron ore, iron ore pellets, nickel, and copper in Brazil and internationally. The company operates through Iron Solutions and Energy Transition Materials segments. The Iron Solutions se...
How the Company Makes Money
Vale primarily makes money by selling mined commodities to industrial customers under spot and contract arrangements, with revenues largely driven by global commodity prices, sales volumes, and product quality/premiums. Its largest revenue stream ...
Vale SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability from core operations across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Shows profitability from core operations across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVale SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution across iron ore and Base Metals, notable production and profitability gains (Q4 pro forma EBITDA +17% YoY, iron ore production +3%, copper +10%, nickel +11%), meaningful cost and CapEx discipline, and sizable shareholder returns (16% dividend yield). Management acknowledged some short-term cost and price volatility (Q4 C1 up 13% YoY, realized price swings, localized operational incidents) and remaining challenges in fully derisking investor restrictions and pushing nickel to the lower half of the cost curve. Overall, the positives — consistent outperformance vs. guidance, material cost and capital optimizations, robust cash generation, and visible low‑capital growth projects — markedly outweigh the challenges discussed.Positive Updates
Safety Improvements
21% reduction in high-potential incidents in 2025, continued progress on safety culture and focus on accident-free environment.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Cost Headwinds in Iron Ore C1
C1 cash cost (ex-3rd party) rose 13% YoY in Q4 driven by adverse BRL exchange rate and higher planned maintenance in the northern system, and higher volumes in Southern/Southeastern systems.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Safety Improvements
21% reduction in high-potential incidents in 2025, continued progress on safety culture and focus on accident-free environment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 guidance and targets across costs, growth and capital: C1 cash costs are expected at $20.0–$21.5/ton in 2026 (2025 C1 closed at $21.3/t), iron ore all‑in costs averaged $54.2/t in 2025 (Q4 $54.3/t), Vale Base Metals guidance at Vale Day was copper all‑in $1,000–$1,500/t and nickel ~ $13,000/t (2025 realized copper all‑in ~‑$900/t, nickel all‑in ~$9,000/t) with a target of at least cash breakeven in nickel by end‑2026; 2026 CapEx is guided at $5.4–$5.7 billion (2025 CapEx $5.5b) with long‑term CapEx guidance below $6b after >$500m pa optimization, Serra Sul +20 Mt commissioning in H2‑2026 and Bacaba start‑up expected H1‑2028 (50,000 tpa Cu), expanded net debt target remains $10–$20b (closed Q4 at ~$15.6b, objective to operate near the midpoint), recurring FCF was ~$1.7b in Q4, reparations cash outflows expected to fall by ≈$1.5b in 2026 vs 2025, and shareholder returns include $2.8b announced in dividends/interest on capital (including $1b extraordinary paid; 2025 dividend yield 16%).Vale SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 38.23B | 38.06B | 41.78B | 43.84B | 54.50B |
| Gross Profit | 13.14B | 13.79B | 17.70B | 19.81B | 32.77B |
| EBITDA | 14.12B | 11.07B | 15.56B | 23.74B | 34.13B |
| Net Income | 2.47B | 6.17B | 7.98B | 18.79B | 22.45B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 86.88B | 80.25B | 93.87B | 86.89B | 89.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.60B | 5.01B | 3.66B | 4.80B | 11.90B |
| Total Debt | 19.39B | 17.74B | 16.80B | 15.44B | 17.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 52.41B | 45.69B | 53.04B | 49.54B | 54.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.63B | 33.43B | 39.31B | 35.87B | 34.47B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.06B | 2.88B | 7.36B | 6.04B | 20.65B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.04B | 9.39B | 13.40B | 11.48B | 25.68B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.19B | -5.79B | -6.49B | -4.69B | -6.61B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 221.78M | -2.13B | -7.41B | -13.91B | -20.28B |
Vale SA Technical Analysis
Positive
16.14
Price Trends
15.99
Positive
14.45
Positive
12.17
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
58.49
Neutral
93.96
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.19, above the 50-day MA of 15.99, and above the 200-day MA of 12.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VALE.
Vale SA Risk Analysis
Vale SA disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vale SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vale SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $179.65B | 6.78 | 21.41% | 3.55% | -7.86% | 14.17% | |
69 Neutral | $159.29B | 13.01 | 16.59% | 4.60% | -0.44% | -4.20% | |
68 Neutral | $69.11B | 22.50 | 6.34% | 10.04% | -8.49% | -41.69% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $981.69M | 11.11 | -15.33% | ― | 11.32% | 61.60% | |
58 Neutral | $1.45B | 8.84 | 14.19% | 1.14% | 7.92% | 91.83% | |
48 Neutral | $8.84B | ― | -5.04% | ― | 26.44% | -95.87% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
VALE
Vale SA
16.14
7.95
97.12%
BHP
BHP Group
72.79
32.17
79.18%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
23.45
14.18
152.97%
RIO
Rio Tinto
94.01
42.18
81.37%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
10.93
4.95
82.65%
MP
MP Materials
51.17
27.18
113.30%
Vale SA Corporate Events
Vale to Distribute R$700 Million in Semi-Annual Debenture Remuneration on March 31, 2026
Mar 24, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Vale S.A. announced it will pay semi‑annual remuneration on its participating debentures on March 31, 2026, at a gross rate of R$2.341507529 per debenture, for a total distribution of R$700.46 million to holders of record ...
Vale Sets April 30 Digital AGM to Approve Subsidiary Mergers and Capital Restructuring
Mar 13, 2026
Vale S.A. has called its 2026 Annual and Extraordinary General Meetings for April 30, 2026, to be held exclusively in digital format via Zoom, reflecting the company’s dispersed shareholder base and efforts to broaden investor participation....
Vale Cancels Nearly 100 Million Treasury Shares Ahead of April EGM
Mar 13, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Vale’s board approved the cancellation of 99,847,816 common shares that were held in treasury and originated from its share repurchase programs, without reducing the company’s share capital. The cancelled volume repr...
Vale Files March 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
Mar 13, 2026
Vale S.A., the Brazilian mining major, has filed its Form 6-K as a foreign private issuer with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for March 2026. The filing reflects the company’s ongoing obligation to provide periodic disclosures t...
Vale Fiscal Council Clears Major Treasury Share Cancellation for Shareholder Vote
Mar 13, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Vale’s Fiscal Council issued an opinion on a management proposal to cancel 99,847,816 common shares currently held in treasury, equivalent to 36.9% of its treasury stock as of February 19, 2026. Following the proposed canc...
Vale Details 2025 Governance, Safety and Growth Agenda Ahead of 2026 Shareholder Meetings
Mar 13, 2026
Vale has convened its 2026 Annual and Extraordinary General Meetings, presenting 2025 management accounts, profit allocation plans, and proposals on executive and board compensation, as well as the election of Fiscal Council members. The agenda al...
Vale Files Routine Form 6-K with U.S. SEC for March 2026
Mar 5, 2026
On March 2026, Vale S.A. submitted a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of its regular reporting obligations as a foreign private issuer. The filing confirms that Vale continues to report under Form 20-F, but the docum...
Vale Addresses Prosecutors’ Lawsuit Over Carajás Railroad Segment, Sees No Material Impact
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Vale said it had been named in a lawsuit filed by Brazil’s Federal Prosecutor’s Office seeking to suspend operations along a 16‑kilometer stretch of the second railway line of the Carajás Railroad in Bom Je...
Vale Clarifies Base Metals IPO Speculation After Regulator Query
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Vale responded to a request from Brazilian securities regulator CVM for clarification on media reports that its subsidiary Vale Base Metals planned to be ready for a potential IPO by mid-2026. The company said the CEO’s com...
Vale Appoints Previ CEO Marcio Chiumento to Board Ahead of April Ratification Vote
Feb 27, 2026
Vale S.A. announced on February 26, 2026, that its Board of Directors has appointed Marcio Antonio Chiumento to fill a vacant seat on the board, in line with the company’s bylaws and governance policies. Chiumento brings more than two decade...
Vale Plans BRL 500 Million Capital Increase and Subsidiary Mergers to Streamline Structure
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Vale’s board approved a proposal to increase the company’s share capital by BRL 500 million via capitalization of part of its Tax Incentive Reserve, without issuing new shares. The move entails amending the compan...
Vale Fiscal Council Backs Capital Reclassification and Merger of Two Subsidiaries
Feb 27, 2026
Vale’s fiscal council has endorsed a proposed R$500 million increase in the company’s capital stock through the capitalization of part of its tax incentive reserves, largely tied to reinvestment incentives cleared by SUDAM for 2011R...
Vale Appoints New Director to Fill Board Vacancy Ahead of April 2026 Meeting
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Vale’s Board of Directors met in Rio de Janeiro and via videoconference to address a vacancy created by the resignation of director João Luiz Fukunaga. The board unanimously appointed banker Marcio Antônio Chi...
Vale Board Clears Internal Mergers of Baovale and CDA for Shareholder Vote
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Vale’s board of directors met in Rio de Janeiro and by videoconference to approve the submission of two internal merger proposals to the next general shareholders’ meeting, scheduled for April 30, 2026. The board ...
Vale Board Backs R$500 Million Capital Increase via Tax Incentive Reserves
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Vale’s Board of Directors met in Rio de Janeiro and by videoconference and unanimously approved a proposal to increase the company’s capital stock by R$500 million without issuing new shares. The increase will be ...
Vale Files Routine February 2026 Form 6-K with U.S. SEC
Feb 23, 2026
Vale S.A. filed a Form 6-K report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for February 2026, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F rules. The filing was formally signed on February 23, 2026, by Direct...
Vale Updates 2026 Cash Flow Sensitivities and US$3.5 Billion Copper CAPEX Plan
Feb 23, 2026
On February 23, 2026, Vale updated investors on the cash flow sensitivity and capital investment schedule for its copper growth projects, ahead of a presentation at the BMO Global Metals, Mining Critical Minerals Conference in Florida. The compan...
Vale Announces Resignation of Board Member João Luiz Fukunaga
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, Vale S.A. announced that its Board of Directors received the resignation of João Luiz Fukunaga, who had served as a board member since 2023. The company publicly thanked Fukunaga for his contributions during his tenure. ...
Vale Forms Four-Party Consortium to Reshape Ownership of Thompson Nickel Belt
Feb 19, 2026
Vale S.A. said on February 19, 2026, that its subsidiary Vale Base Metals has agreed to form a four-party consortium with Exiro Minerals, Orion Resources Partners and Canada Growth Fund to own and develop the Thompson Nickel Belt in Manitoba. As p...
Vale Files Routine February 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
Feb 13, 2026
Vale S.A., the Brazilian mining group, filed its Form 6-K as a foreign private issuer for the month of February 2026 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing, signed on February 13, 2026 by Director of Investor Relations Thiago...
Vale’s 2025 Profit Slumps on Asset Impairments and Legacy Dam Costs
Feb 13, 2026
Vale reported its full-year 2025 results on December 31, 2025, showing consolidated net operating revenue of R$213.6 billion, roughly flat versus 2024, but net income attributable to shareholders dropped to R$13.8 billion from R$31.6 billion a yea...
Vale 2025 Results: Profit Hit by Impairments as Cash Generation Remains Resilient
Feb 13, 2026
For the year ended December 31, 2025, Vale reported net operating revenue of $38.4 billion, broadly flat versus 2024 but below 2023 levels, as gross profit slipped to $13.5 billion. Net income attributable to shareholders fell sharply to $2.35 bil...
Vale Fiscal Council Backs 2025 Accounts and Profit Allocation Ahead of AGM
Feb 13, 2026
Vale’s fiscal council has reviewed the company’s full set of financial statements and management report for the year ended Dec. 31, 2025 and, relying on the independent auditors’ work, concluded they comply with Brazilian corpora...
Vale Details Intensive 2025 Audit and Risk Oversight in February 2026 Governance Report
Feb 13, 2026
In February 2026, Vale reported on the activities of its statutory Audit and Risk Committee for the 2025 fiscal year, detailing its fully independent composition and leadership changes over the year, including the appointment of Heloísa Belot...
Vale Posts Strong 2025 Results as Iron Ore Rebounds and Base Metals Earnings Surge
Feb 13, 2026
In its management report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, Vale reported consolidated net sales revenue of BRL 213.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA of BRL 85.9 billion and net income attributable to shareholders of BRL 13.8 billion, supported...
Vale Posts Strong 2025 Results, Lifts Payouts and Advances Growth and ESG Agenda
Feb 13, 2026
Vale reported strong operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, released on February 12, 2026, with iron ore, copper and nickel sales all growing year on year and Proforma EBITDA rising to $4.8 billion in 4Q25 and...
Vale Details Internal Holdings of Shares and ADSs as of January 31, 2026
Feb 11, 2026
On January 31, 2026, Vale S.A. reported that it held 96,075,657 of its own VALE3 shares, representing 2.12% of the share class and of total capital, and 5,237,459 ADSs, equivalent to 0.12% of the same class and total capital. The disclosure indica...
Vale Reports Court Rejection of Most Asset Freeze Requests After January Overflows
Feb 10, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Vale reported that three preliminary asset-freeze requests totaling R$ 2.846 billion tied to recent environmental incidents had been denied by Brazilian courts, leaving only one pending request for R$ 200 million. The company ...
Vale Faces New Asset Freeze Requests Over January Overflows at Minas Gerais Units
Feb 6, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Vale S.A. reported three new legal proceedings in Brazil seeking preliminary injunctions, including substantial asset freezes, in connection with tailings overflows recorded in January 2026 at its Fábrica and Viga operati...
Vale Faces R$1 Billion Asset Freeze Request Over Fábrica Mine Overflow in Brazil
Feb 2, 2026
On February 1, 2026, Vale S.A. reported that Brazil’s Federal Prosecutor’s Office (MPF) has filed a preliminary injunction for protective relief related to an overflow incident at the Fábrica mine in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, wher...
Vale Beats 2025 Production Targets as Iron Ore and Copper Hit Highest Levels Since 2018
Jan 27, 2026
In January 2026, Vale reported that it delivered strong operational results in 2025, surpassing its original production guidance across all business segments as iron ore and copper output reached their highest levels since 2018, at 336 million ton...
Vale Files Routine January 2026 Form 6-K as Foreign Issuer
Jan 27, 2026
In January 2026, Vale S.A., the Brazilian mining giant and major global supplier of iron ore and nickel, filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The f...
Vale Files January 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
Jan 27, 2026
On January 26, 2026, Vale S.A., acting as a foreign private issuer in the United States, filed its Form 6-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of January 2026, formally certifying the submission through its Director of Inves...
Vale Says Minas Gerais Water Overflows Contained, Dams Unaffected
Jan 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, Vale S.A. reported that water overflows detected on January 25 in the municipalities of Congonhas and Ouro Preto, in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, had been contained without injuries or impacts to nearby populations and...
Vale Says Sediment-Water Overflow at Fábrica Mine Caused No Injuries, Guidance Unchanged
Jan 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, Vale S.A. reported that in the early hours of the preceding Sunday an overflow of water with sediments occurred from a pit at its Fábrica mine in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, affecting areas owned by a third-party company bu...
Vale Settles 3rd-Series 8th-Issue Debentures, Pays R$130 Million to Investors
Jan 14, 2026
On January 15, 2026, Vale S.A. was scheduled to pay a total of R$130.0 million in interest, amortization and monetary adjustment related to its 8th-issue debentures to holders registered at the close of January 14, 2026, via B3 and Banco Itaú...
Vale Files Routine January 2026 Form 6-K with U.S. SEC
Jan 13, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Vale S.A. submitted a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of January 2026, confirming its ongoing reporting obligations as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. T...
Vale Sets Late-January and Mid-February Dates for Release of 4Q25 Results
Jan 13, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Vale S.A. announced the timetable for releasing its fourth-quarter 2025 (4Q25) results, signaling key dates for investors and analysts tracking the mining giant’s operational and financial performance. The company will p...
Vale Discloses Capital World Investors Raising Stake Above 5%
Jan 13, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Vale S.A. disclosed that Capital World Investors had increased its stake in the miner to 227,690,911 common shares, equivalent to 5.02% of Vale’s total issued share capital, up from 4.61% previously. The investment, alon...
Vale Showcases 2024 Operating Strength and Iron Ore Expansion Strategy in Latest Investor Presentation
Jan 13, 2026
In an institutional investor presentation dated December 2025 and filed in January 2026, Vale detailed its 2024 operating and financial performance, highlighting 328 million tonnes of iron ore production, 37 million tonnes of pellets and strong co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.