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Vale SA
(NYSE:VALE)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(8.18% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/11/26
VALE scores 66 primarily due to moderate financial performance (cycle-weaker profitability and uneven cash conversion) balanced by an encouraging earnings update (EBITDA/FCF growth and base-metals improvements) and supportive valuation (low P/E and solid yield). Technicals are neutral-to-mixed, with limited near-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Growing base‑metals franchise (VBM)
Vale is materially diversifying away from sole reliance on iron ore: VBM EBITDA has more than doubled and copper/nickel output is rising. This shifts group earnings toward metals tied to electrification, improving medium-term revenue mix resilience and reducing sensitivity to seaborne iron‑ore cycles.
Negative Factors
Rising operating cash costs
Structural cost pressure from FX appreciation, inventory consumption and higher input costs increases C1 and all‑in cash costs. Because management's guidance is conditional on FX and oil, sustained cost inflation would compress margins and reduce margin upside if benchmark prices retreat over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Growing base‑metals franchise (VBM)
Vale is materially diversifying away from sole reliance on iron ore: VBM EBITDA has more than doubled and copper/nickel output is rising. This shifts group earnings toward metals tied to electrification, improving medium-term revenue mix resilience and reducing sensitivity to seaborne iron‑ore cycles.
Read all positive factors
Vale SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability from core operations across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Shows profitability from core operations across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVale SA (VALE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$61.60B
Dividend Yield5.16%
Average Volume (3M)21.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.6
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth4.64%
EPS Growth-51.66%
CountryUS
Employees65,805
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.66
Shares Outstanding4,539,008,000
10 Day Avg. Volume20,507,705
30 Day Avg. Volume21,710,507
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)1.65
Price to Sales (P/S)1.45
P/FCF Ratio18.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.97Price Target Upside14.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$41.52B
Vale SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vale S.A. (VALE) is a Brazil-based global mining company focused on the production and sale of iron ore and iron ore pellets, with additional operations in base metals (such as nickel and copper) and related logistics. The company also operates in...
How the Company Makes Money
Vale primarily makes money by extracting, processing, and selling mineral products, with revenue largely driven by (1) iron ore fines and (2) iron ore pellets sold to steel producers and traders. Pricing and realized revenue are mainly influenced ...
Vale SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed broadly positive operational and financial momentum: strong pro forma EBITDA growth (+21% YoY), VBM materially unlocking value (VBM EBITDA > doubled to $1.2B; copper 102 kt, +13% YoY; nickel +12% YoY), robust free cash flow (+61% YoY) and meaningful commercial/pricing gains (premiums +$2.6/ton QoQ, ~ $800M annualized). Management acknowledged cost pressures—C1 up 12% YoY, all-in costs up 8%—and macro/logistics risks (FX, oil, geopolitical events, distribution/royalty uncertainties) that temper near-term visibility and make delivery of guidance conditional on market curves. On balance, operational execution, cash generation and strategic initiatives (decarbonization, VBM optionality) outweigh the headwinds, though company performance remains sensitive to external price, FX and logistics dynamics.Positive Updates
Strong Pro Forma EBITDA Growth
Pro forma EBITDA of $3.9 billion in Q1 2026, up 21% year-on-year, driven by higher volumes and improved price realization across iron ore, copper and nickel.
Negative Updates
Rising C1 Cash Costs for Iron Ore
C1 cash cost excluding third-party purchases was $23.6/ton in Q1, up 12% YoY. Management attributed the increase mainly to BRL appreciation and consumption of higher-cost inventories from prior quarters.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Pro Forma EBITDA Growth
Pro forma EBITDA of $3.9 billion in Q1 2026, up 21% year-on-year, driven by higher volumes and improved price realization across iron ore, copper and nickel.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated its guidance that, assuming market consensus FX of BRL 5.25 and oil at $90/bbl, Vale is targeting the top end of its FY C1 cost guidance (market commentary earlier referenced a ~$21/t target), noting Q1 C1 was $23.6/t (up 12% YoY) and all‑in cash cost rose ~8% YoY; pro forma EBITDA was $3.9bn (+21% YoY) with iron ore EBITDA $2.9bn and Vale Base Metals (VBM) EBITDA $1.2bn, VBM Q1 copper production 102kt (+13% YoY) and nickel 49kt (Q1), recurring free cash flow $813m (+61% YoY), $2.7bn returned in dividends/IOCs and ~5m shares repurchased, expanded net debt $17.8bn (target $10–20bn, operate near midpoint), ~70% of 2026 bunker demand hedged above $80/bbl, commercial premiums up $2.6/t qoq (≈$800m annualized), Serra Sul +20 at 86% completion on track for H2 start‑up, and management expects continued VBM cost declines (copper all‑in ≈‑$600/t, down ~$1,800/t YoY; nickel all‑in $8,200/t, down 48% YoY).Vale SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 39.53B | 38.23B | 38.06B | 41.78B | 43.84B | 54.50B |
| Gross Profit | 13.65B | 13.14B | 13.79B | 17.70B | 19.81B | 32.77B |
| EBITDA | 9.90B | 9.37B | 11.07B | 15.56B | 23.74B | 34.13B |
| Net Income | 2.79B | 2.47B | 6.17B | 7.98B | 18.79B | 22.45B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 87.55B | 86.88B | 80.25B | 93.87B | 86.89B | 89.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.28B | 7.60B | 5.01B | 3.66B | 4.80B | 11.90B |
| Total Debt | 18.83B | 19.39B | 17.74B | 16.80B | 15.44B | 17.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 50.03B | 52.41B | 45.69B | 53.04B | 49.54B | 54.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 36.62B | 33.63B | 33.43B | 39.31B | 35.87B | 34.47B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.35B | 3.06B | 2.88B | 7.36B | 6.04B | 20.65B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.29B | 9.04B | 9.39B | 13.40B | 11.48B | 25.68B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.14B | -7.19B | -5.79B | -6.49B | -4.69B | -6.61B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.49B | 221.78M | -2.13B | -7.41B | -13.91B | -20.28B |
Vale SA Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.79
Price Trends
15.28
Negative
15.72
Negative
14.65
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.22
Negative
49.32
Neutral
79.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.56, below the 50-day MA of 15.28, and above the 200-day MA of 14.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VALE.
Vale SA Risk Analysis
Vale SA disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vale SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vale SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $214.69B | 20.43 | 21.41% | 3.18% | 1.04% | -9.88% | |
69 Neutral | $1.61B | 7.83 | 20.95% | 0.79% | 16.41% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.23B | 185.56 | 2.79% | ― | 6.42% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $61.60B | 21.62 | 7.68% | 5.23% | 4.64% | -51.66% | |
63 Neutral | $160.85B | 14.84 | 16.59% | 4.41% | 14.26% | 17.02% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
47 Neutral | $6.78B | -97.87 | -3.49% | ― | 60.93% | 34.20% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
VALE
Vale SA
14.99
6.15
69.63%
BHP
BHP Group
85.90
37.26
76.60%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
29.78
9.85
49.42%
RIO
Rio Tinto
97.18
40.40
71.14%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
13.16
8.37
174.74%
MP
MP Materials
41.66
-19.84
-32.26%
Vale SA Corporate Events
Vale Board Moves to Dismiss Director Over Confidentiality Breach
Jul 28, 2026
Vale’s board of directors met by videoconference on July 22, 2026, to address a misconduct case involving director Marcelo Gasparino da Silva related to a leak of confidential information from a June 19, 2026 board meeting. Following recomme...
Vale Announces Resignation of Board Vice-Chairman Marcelo Gasparino
Jul 27, 2026
Vale S.A. reported from Rio de Janeiro on July 27, 2026, that board member Marcelo Gasparino da Silva has tendered his resignation from the company’s Board of Directors and his role as Vice-Chairman. His departure will be effective as of Aug...
Vale Discloses Voting Results from July 22 Extraordinary General Meeting
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Vale held an extraordinary general meeting in Rio de Janeiro, where shareholders voted on items 2 and 3 of the meeting’s agenda. The company reported that 3,508,495,389 common shares, representing 82.4% of its voting capita...
Vale Moves to Oust Director Over Confidentiality Breach After July 19 Board Meeting
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Vale’s board resolved to seek the removal of director Marcelo Gasparino da Silva after an independent investigation found he leaked confidential information from a June 19, 2026 board meeting. The board also removed him fro...
Vale Shareholders Elect Independent Director at Extraordinary Meeting
Jul 22, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Vale S.A. held an Extraordinary General Meeting of shareholders in fully digital format, with investors representing 82.4% of its capital participating via the Ten platform. The meeting followed a June request by major shareholde...
Vale Reports Strong Shareholder Turnout at April 30 Extraordinary General Meeting
Jul 22, 2026
Vale disclosed the final synthetic voting results from its Extraordinary General Meeting held on April 30, 2026, covering key board-related resolutions. The voting map reflects the participation of 3,508,495,389 common shares, representing 82.4% o...
Vale discloses CVM inquiry on board chair election ahead of July 22 EGM
Jul 22, 2026
Vale S.A. disclosed that on July 20, 2026 it received an official letter from the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) seeking comments from the company and major shareholder PREVI on an inquiry raised by two minority shareholders ab...
Vale Posts Strong Q2 2026 Output Across Iron Ore, Copper and Nickel
Jul 22, 2026
Vale S.A. is a Brazilian mining giant and one of the world’s largest producers of iron ore and pellets, with significant operations in copper and nickel as well. The company’s assets span Brazil, Canada and Oman, supplying key inputs t...
Vale Publishes Synthetic Voting Map Ahead of July 22 Extraordinary General Meeting
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Vale disclosed a consolidated synthetic voting map ahead of its Extraordinary General Meeting scheduled for July 22, 2026 in Rio de Janeiro, detailing remote voting instructions received from shareholders on key board election it...
Vale Names Interim Chairman Ahead of July 22 Extraordinary Meeting
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Vale announced that its Board of Directors elected independent board member Wilfred Theodoor Bruijn as Chairman of the Board, following the vacancy of this position on July 6, 2026. Bruijn’s appointment is interim, as he wi...
Vale Rules Out Investment in Corumbá Iron Ore Asset After Strategic Review
Jul 14, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Vale S.A. responded to Brazilian media reports by stressing that it regularly reviews potential investments but subjects any capital allocation to rigorous technical, economic and financial analysis under its governance framework...
Vale Files Routine July 2026 Form 6-K with U.S. SEC
Jul 10, 2026
Vale S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of July 2026, confirming its continuing status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed on July 10, 2026, by Director of Inv...
Vale Clarifies Terms of Board Chairman Stieler’s July Resignation and Non-Compete Deal
Jul 9, 2026
On July 8, 2026, Vale S.A. responded to a request from the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission for clarification on media reports about the July 6 resignation of board chairman Daniel André Stieler. Vale said Stieler’s early de...
Vale Chairman Daniel Stieler Resigns Ahead of July Extraordinary Meeting
Jul 7, 2026
Vale S.A. announced on July 6, 2026 that Daniel André Stieler has resigned, effective immediately, as both a member and Chairman of the company’s Board of Directors. The board praised Stieler’s leadership since 2021 and his chairm...
Vale S.A. Files June 2026 Form 6-K with U.S. Securities Regulator
Jun 30, 2026
Vale S.A. filed a Form 6-K as a foreign private issuer with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of June 2026. The report, signed by Director of Investor Relations Thiago Lofiego on June 30, 2026, fulfills the company’s ...
Vale clarifies stance on Bamin, rail concessions and mini-mines partnerships
Jun 25, 2026
Vale S.A. on June 24, 2026, moved to clarify Brazilian media reports, stressing that its decisions follow strict governance rules and are made independently and in the company’s best interest. The miner said it regularly evaluates strategic ...
Vale Calls July Extraordinary Meeting to Vote on Board Shake-Up and Chair Election
Jun 23, 2026
Vale S.A. has called an Extraordinary General Meeting for July 22, 2026, to be held virtually, as part of an ongoing effort to enhance its governance and reinforce the skills, diversity and oversight capacity of its Board. The agenda includes a sh...
Vale Calls July 22 Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting After Previ Seeks Ouster of Board Chair
Jun 23, 2026
Vale’s board of directors met in an extraordinary session on June 19, 2026, in Rio de Janeiro to address a request from shareholder Previ, which holds 7.01% of the company’s share capital. The meeting reflected ongoing governance debat...
Vale Files Routine June 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
Jun 15, 2026
Vale S.A. has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for June 2026, providing its latest disclosures as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The document, largely composed of boilerplate re...
Vale Deepens ISSB-Aligned ESG Reporting and Bets on Circular Mining in 2025 Sustainability Report
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Vale released its 2025 Sustainability-Related Financial Information Report, voluntarily aligning for a second year with the International Sustainability Standards Board’s framework to detail financially material sustainabil...
Vale Receives Shareholder Request for Extraordinary Meeting to Reshuffle Board Leadership
Jun 12, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Vale reported that it had received a request from shareholder Caixa de Previdência dos Funcionários do Banco do Brasil – Previ to convene an Extraordinary General Meeting to vote on governance changes. Previ is se...
Vale Files June 2026 Form 6-K as Foreign Private Issuer
Jun 9, 2026
Vale S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2026, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed on June 9, 2026 by Director of Investor Relations Thiago Lofi...
Vale Lifts Long-Term EBITDA Share Target for Base Metals Unit to 28%
Jun 9, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Vale S.A. announced an update to its long-term indicative guidance for the contribution of its subsidiary, Vale Base Metals Ltd., to the group’s consolidated EBITDA, estimating that the base metals arm will account for appro...
Vale to Pay BRL 201 Million in Interest on 11th Issue Incentivized Debentures
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Vale S.A. announced it would pay remuneration interest on its 11th issuance of unsecured, non-convertible incentivized debentures, covering the 1st, 2nd and 3rd series. The payment, totaling BRL 201,021,910.48, will be made on May...
Vale Files May 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
May 12, 2026
Vale S.A., the Brazilian mining group, submitted a Form 6-K report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for May 2026 as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act. The filing confirms that Vale continues to report under F...
Vale Lifts 2026 Cash Flow Outlook on Iron Ore Rally and Details Nickel Sensitivities
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Vale updated its market estimates to reflect the impact of the recent conflict in the Middle East on its Iron Ore Solutions segment, projecting an additional US$1.5 billion in free cash flow for 2026 versus a pre-conflict scenario...
Vale Clarifies Report on Potential Interest in Porto Sudeste
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Vale S.A. responded to a press report claiming it was among potential buyers of Porto Sudeste, stating that assessments of such investment opportunities are part of its ordinary course of business and aligned with its strategic ...
Vale Shareholders Approve Subsidiary Mergers, Share Cancellation and Capital Increase at April 30 Meetings
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Vale held its Annual and Extraordinary General Meetings, where shareholders representing 82.1% of voting capital evaluated the 2025 management report and financial statements, approved profit allocation for the 2025 fiscal year,...
Vale Shareholders Approve 2025 Accounts, Subsidiary Mergers and Capital Changes at April 30 Meetings
Apr 30, 2026
At its combined annual and special shareholders’ meetings held digitally on April 30, 2026, Vale approved the 2025 management report and financial statements, along with the external audit opinion, confirming the company’s financial re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.