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Vale SA
(NYSE:VALE)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(4.80% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
VALE scores as a mid-range opportunity driven by stable-but-normalized financials (profitability and cash conversion down from peak-cycle despite manageable leverage) and a constructive earnings call emphasizing strong quarterly cash generation, base-metals momentum, and active shareholder returns. Offsetting factors are weaker technical trend signals and a valuation mix where a high dividend yield is tempered by a relatively high P/E for a cyclical business.
Positive Factors
Base Metals Expansion
Improving base-metals production, sales and costs strengthens Vale’s diversification beyond iron ore. This supports a larger role for copper and nickel, which are strategically linked to electrification and may reduce dependence on one commodity cycle.
Negative Factors
Profitability Compression
Lower net profitability shows that earnings remain materially below the prior peak cycle. This reduces the cushion available for reinvestment, debt reduction and shareholder returns, leaving results more sensitive to commodity prices, operating costs and financial charges.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Base Metals Expansion
Improving base-metals production, sales and costs strengthens Vale’s diversification beyond iron ore. This supports a larger role for copper and nickel, which are strategically linked to electrification and may reduce dependence on one commodity cycle.
Read all positive factors
Vale SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability from core operations across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Shows profitability from core operations across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVale SA (VALE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.89B
Dividend Yield7.51%
Average Volume (3M)21.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.4
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth12.55%
EPS Growth-60.45%
CountryUS
Employees65,805
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding4,539,008,000
10 Day Avg. Volume20,507,705
30 Day Avg. Volume21,710,507
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)1.65
Price to Sales (P/S)1.45
P/FCF Ratio18.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.82Price Target Upside13.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$41.42B
Vale SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating globally and within Brazil, Vale S.A. is a major producer and seller of essential raw materials, including iron ore, iron ore pellets, nickel, and copper. Its operations are organized into two primary segments. The Iron Solutions segment...
How the Company Makes Money
Vale primarily makes money by extracting, processing, and selling mineral products, with revenue largely driven by (1) iron ore fines and (2) iron ore pellets sold to steel producers and traders. Pricing and realized revenue are mainly influenced ...
Vale SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights robust operational execution, strong cash generation and material progress on growth projects (notably accelerated Bacaba and Serra Sul expansions), alongside meaningful improvements in base metals profitability and active shareholder returns. However, near-term headwinds remain: rising iron ore unit costs driven by currency appreciation and higher oil/freight, planned maintenance at Sossego affecting H2 copper output, and market/ regulatory uncertainties (freight volatility, Caves Decree). On balance, the company presented more substantive positive developments than negatives, with management taking actions (hedging, efficiency programs, buybacks/dividends) to mitigate risks while accelerating high-return growth projects.Positive Updates
Strong Pro Forma EBITDA Growth
Pro forma EBITDA of $4.1 billion in Q2 2026, up 19% year-on-year, demonstrating resilient earnings despite external cost pressures.
Negative Updates
Rising Iron Ore Unit Costs
Q2 iron ore C1 cash cost (ex third-party purchases) was $24.1/t (+9% year-on-year) and all-in cost reached $61.6/t (+18% year-on-year); 2026 guidance updated upward to C1 $22.5–$23.5/t (from $20–$21.5) and all-in $58–$62/t (from $52–$56) largely due to FX appreciation and higher Brent/diesel.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Pro Forma EBITDA Growth
Pro forma EBITDA of $4.1 billion in Q2 2026, up 19% year-on-year, demonstrating resilient earnings despite external cost pressures.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vale updated and narrowed several guidances: iron ore C1 (ex third‑party) is now guided to $22.5–$23.5/t (vs prior $20–$21.5) and all‑in $58–$62/t (vs $52–$56) based on a $86/bbl Brent assumption (prior $68) and BRL 5.13 FX (vs prior BRL 5.60); Q2 pro‑forma EBITDA was $4.1B (iron ore >$3B, VBM $1.3B), Q2 free cash flow $1.5B, CapEx $1.1B, expanded net debt closed at $16.7B with a target/reference of $15B, and hedges/settlements contributed ~$337M cash (Brent hedging benefit ~ $100M ≈ $1.6/t); Vale Base Metals cut copper all‑in guidance to $0–$500/t (from $1,000–$1,500) and nickel to $10,000–$11,500/t (from $12,000–$13,500); shareholder returns include $1.7B dividends/interest on capital in September and a buyback program of up to 100M shares (≈2.3% outstanding) after $140M repurchased this quarter ($214M YTD); operationally, Serra Sul +20 will add 20 Mt capacity, Bacaba commissioning moved up to Q3‑2027 (50 kt capacity), and Q2 copper/nickel production rose +6%/+4% YoY (sales +10%/+7%), supporting confident guidance for 2026.Vale SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
69
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 41.22B | 38.23B | 38.06B | 41.78B | 43.84B | 54.50B |
| Gross Profit | 14.15B | 13.14B | 13.79B | 17.70B | 19.81B | 32.77B |
| EBITDA | 10.05B | 9.37B | 11.07B | 15.56B | 23.74B | 34.13B |
| Net Income | 2.03B | 2.47B | 6.17B | 7.98B | 18.79B | 22.45B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 89.29B | 86.88B | 80.25B | 93.87B | 86.89B | 89.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.77B | 7.60B | 5.01B | 3.66B | 4.80B | 11.90B |
| Total Debt | 18.94B | 19.39B | 17.74B | 16.80B | 15.44B | 17.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 50.37B | 52.41B | 45.69B | 53.04B | 49.54B | 54.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 37.99B | 33.63B | 33.43B | 39.31B | 35.87B | 34.47B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.86B | 3.06B | 2.88B | 7.36B | 6.04B | 20.65B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.88B | 9.04B | 9.39B | 13.40B | 11.48B | 25.68B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.96B | -7.19B | -5.79B | -6.49B | -4.69B | -6.61B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.22B | 221.78M | -2.13B | -7.41B | -13.91B | -20.28B |
Vale SA Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.79
Price Trends
14.44
Negative
15.29
Negative
14.60
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.16
Positive
50.26
Neutral
26.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.23, above the 50-day MA of 14.44, and above the 200-day MA of 14.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VALE.
Vale SA Risk Analysis
Vale SA disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vale SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vale SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $171.56B | 13.78 | 18.86% | 4.41% | 14.26% | 17.02% | |
73 Outperform | $231.06B | 23.96 | 21.41% | 3.18% | 15.12% | 9.37% | |
67 Neutral | $1.88B | 6.73 | 25.68% | 0.79% | 23.37% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $57.89B | 28.44 | 5.76% | 5.23% | 12.55% | -60.45% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $1.08B | 55.95 | 7.13% | ― | 5.46% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $10.09B | -161.03 | -2.66% | ― | 71.92% | 44.39% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
VALE
Vale SA
14.23
4.80
50.90%
BHP
BHP Group
93.63
39.92
74.33%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
24.62
5.15
26.45%
RIO
Rio Tinto
102.17
42.47
71.14%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
14.07
9.15
186.03%
MP
MP Materials
55.04
-12.84
-18.92%
Vale SA Corporate Events
Vale Fast-Tracks Salobo Copper Expansion With Lower Capex and Wheaton Funding
Aug 13, 2026
Vale S.A. said on August 12, 2026, that its subsidiary Vale Base Metals is advancing the Coarse Particle Flotation project at the Salobo Copper Complex in Pará to the execution phase, with start-up now expected in the first half of 2028, abou...
Vale Disputes Brazilian Mining Royalty Charges, Affirms Compliance
Aug 6, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Vale S.A. stated that it regularly pays Brazil’s mining royalty known as CFEM and that it complies with all applicable regulations and constitutional limits. The company said recent charges by the Brazilian National Mining...
Vale Strengthens Board Independence With New Governance Appointments
Aug 5, 2026
At a Board of Directors meeting held on July 30, 2026, Vale approved changes to the internal regulations of its Nomination and Governance Committee, refining oversight structures that underpin the company’s governance framework. These adjust...
Vale Tightens Governance With New Fiscal Council Regulations
Aug 5, 2026
Vale S.A. has detailed new internal regulations for its Fiscal Council, the permanent supervisory body responsible for overseeing directors and executive officers and ensuring compliance with Brazilian corporate law and the company’s bylaws....
Vale S.A. Details Governance Compliance and Shareholder Protections in July 2026 Report
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A. reported its adherence to the Brazilian Code of Corporate Governance as of July 30, 2026, detailing practices aimed at protecting minority shareholders and strengthening oversight. The company confirms that its capital structure is compo...
Vale Launches New 100 Million-Share Buyback Program to Bolster Capital Discipline
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A. said on July 30, 2026 that its board approved a new share buyback program for up to 100 million common shares over 18 months starting August 19, 2026, equal to about 2.3% of outstanding equity. The move follows the near expiration of the...
Vale Posts Higher Revenue but Lower Net Profit as Dam-Related Payments Weigh on H1 2026
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A. reported a solid year-on-year increase in net operating revenue and operating income for the quarter and six-month period ended June 30, 2026, although net income declined versus the same periods in 2025. Earnings per share for Vale shar...
Vale Strengthens Board Leadership with New Vice Chairman and Lead Independent Director
Jul 31, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Vale announced that its Board of Directors approved changes to the board’s leadership structure, effective August 1, 2026, for the remainder of the current term. Independent board member Reinaldo Duarte Castanheira Filho wa...
Vale Begins Commissioning Serra Sul +20 to Boost High-Grade Iron Ore Output
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A. has begun commissioning the long-distance conveyor belt for its Serra Sul +20 project at the S11D iron ore operation in Canaã dos Carajás, Pará, marking the start-up phase as of July 30, 2026. Together with the Compact Ore...
Vale Raises 2026 Iron Ore Cost Outlook While Cutting Base Metals Costs
Jul 31, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Vale updated its 2026 cost and production estimates, signaling higher iron ore cash and all-in costs while lowering projected all-in costs for copper and nickel. The C1 cash cost of iron ore was revised to US$22.5–23.5 per ...
Vale’s Q2 2026 Profit Slides Despite Higher Revenue
Jul 31, 2026
In its Form 6-K for July 2026, Vale reported that for the three months ended June 30, 2026, net operating revenue rose year-on-year, but quarterly net income fell to 7.0 billion reais from 12.2 billion reais in 2025, reflecting higher operating ex...
Vale posts strong Q2 2026 results, launches Serra Sul expansion and new buyback program
Jul 31, 2026
Vale reported its second-quarter 2026 results on July 30, highlighting year-on-year growth across key businesses, with iron ore posting its strongest Q2 output since 2018 and copper its best in nine years. Net operating revenue rose 19% year-on-ye...
Vale Approves BRL 8.6 Billion Payout and New Share Buyback Program
Jul 31, 2026
Vale’s board of directors met on July 30, 2026, and approved a substantial shareholder payout based on the June 30, 2026 balance sheet, reflecting an advance on 2026 results or the use of profit reserves. The company will distribute a total ...
Vale S.A. Confirms July 2026 Form 6-K Filing With U.S. SEC
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A., the Brazilian mining giant, filed its Form 6-K as a foreign private issuer for the month of July 2026 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing confirms the company continues to report under Form 20-F and maintains it...
Vale Formalizes New Nomination and Governance Committee Rules to Bolster Oversight
Jul 31, 2026
Vale’s board of directors in July 2026 approved detailed internal regulations for its Nomination and Governance Committee, formalizing the body’s mission, composition, and operating rules. The committee will be composed entirely of boa...
Vale Approves R$2.03 Per Share Payout for Shareholders in September 2026
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A. is a Brazil-based global mining company and one of the world’s largest producers of iron ore and nickel, with its shares listed on B3 in São Paulo and American Depositary Receipts traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The com...
Vale’s 2025 Tax Report Shows $37.5 Billion Global Economic Contribution
Jul 31, 2026
In its 2025 Tax Contribution Report, Vale details a direct global economic contribution of $37.5 billion for the year, underscoring the mining group’s role as a significant driver of growth in the jurisdictions where it operates. Brazil acco...
Vale Board Moves to Dismiss Director Over Confidentiality Breach
Jul 28, 2026
Vale’s board of directors met by videoconference on July 22, 2026, to address a misconduct case involving director Marcelo Gasparino da Silva related to a leak of confidential information from a June 19, 2026 board meeting. Following recomme...
Vale Announces Resignation of Board Vice-Chairman Marcelo Gasparino
Jul 27, 2026
Vale S.A. reported from Rio de Janeiro on July 27, 2026, that board member Marcelo Gasparino da Silva has tendered his resignation from the company’s Board of Directors and his role as Vice-Chairman. His departure will be effective as of Aug...
Vale Discloses Voting Results from July 22 Extraordinary General Meeting
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Vale held an extraordinary general meeting in Rio de Janeiro, where shareholders voted on items 2 and 3 of the meeting’s agenda. The company reported that 3,508,495,389 common shares, representing 82.4% of its voting capita...
Vale Moves to Oust Director Over Confidentiality Breach After July 19 Board Meeting
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Vale’s board resolved to seek the removal of director Marcelo Gasparino da Silva after an independent investigation found he leaked confidential information from a June 19, 2026 board meeting. The board also removed him fro...
Vale Shareholders Elect Independent Director at Extraordinary Meeting
Jul 22, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Vale S.A. held an Extraordinary General Meeting of shareholders in fully digital format, with investors representing 82.4% of its capital participating via the Ten platform. The meeting followed a June request by major shareholde...
Vale Reports Strong Shareholder Turnout at April 30 Extraordinary General Meeting
Jul 22, 2026
Vale disclosed the final synthetic voting results from its Extraordinary General Meeting held on April 30, 2026, covering key board-related resolutions. The voting map reflects the participation of 3,508,495,389 common shares, representing 82.4% o...
Vale discloses CVM inquiry on board chair election ahead of July 22 EGM
Jul 22, 2026
Vale S.A. disclosed that on July 20, 2026 it received an official letter from the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) seeking comments from the company and major shareholder PREVI on an inquiry raised by two minority shareholders ab...
Vale Posts Strong Q2 2026 Output Across Iron Ore, Copper and Nickel
Jul 22, 2026
Vale S.A. is a Brazilian mining giant and one of the world’s largest producers of iron ore and pellets, with significant operations in copper and nickel as well. The company’s assets span Brazil, Canada and Oman, supplying key inputs t...
Vale Publishes Synthetic Voting Map Ahead of July 22 Extraordinary General Meeting
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Vale disclosed a consolidated synthetic voting map ahead of its Extraordinary General Meeting scheduled for July 22, 2026 in Rio de Janeiro, detailing remote voting instructions received from shareholders on key board election it...
Vale Names Interim Chairman Ahead of July 22 Extraordinary Meeting
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Vale announced that its Board of Directors elected independent board member Wilfred Theodoor Bruijn as Chairman of the Board, following the vacancy of this position on July 6, 2026. Bruijn’s appointment is interim, as he wi...
Vale Rules Out Investment in Corumbá Iron Ore Asset After Strategic Review
Jul 14, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Vale S.A. responded to Brazilian media reports by stressing that it regularly reviews potential investments but subjects any capital allocation to rigorous technical, economic and financial analysis under its governance framework...
Vale Files Routine July 2026 Form 6-K with U.S. SEC
Jul 10, 2026
Vale S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of July 2026, confirming its continuing status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed on July 10, 2026, by Director of Inv...
Vale Clarifies Terms of Board Chairman Stieler’s July Resignation and Non-Compete Deal
Jul 9, 2026
On July 8, 2026, Vale S.A. responded to a request from the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission for clarification on media reports about the July 6 resignation of board chairman Daniel André Stieler. Vale said Stieler’s early de...
Vale Chairman Daniel Stieler Resigns Ahead of July Extraordinary Meeting
Jul 7, 2026
Vale S.A. announced on July 6, 2026 that Daniel André Stieler has resigned, effective immediately, as both a member and Chairman of the company’s Board of Directors. The board praised Stieler’s leadership since 2021 and his chairm...
Vale S.A. Files June 2026 Form 6-K with U.S. Securities Regulator
Jun 30, 2026
Vale S.A. filed a Form 6-K as a foreign private issuer with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of June 2026. The report, signed by Director of Investor Relations Thiago Lofiego on June 30, 2026, fulfills the company’s ...
Vale clarifies stance on Bamin, rail concessions and mini-mines partnerships
Jun 25, 2026
Vale S.A. on June 24, 2026, moved to clarify Brazilian media reports, stressing that its decisions follow strict governance rules and are made independently and in the company’s best interest. The miner said it regularly evaluates strategic ...
Vale Calls July Extraordinary Meeting to Vote on Board Shake-Up and Chair Election
Jun 23, 2026
Vale S.A. has called an Extraordinary General Meeting for July 22, 2026, to be held virtually, as part of an ongoing effort to enhance its governance and reinforce the skills, diversity and oversight capacity of its Board. The agenda includes a sh...
Vale Calls July 22 Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting After Previ Seeks Ouster of Board Chair
Jun 23, 2026
Vale’s board of directors met in an extraordinary session on June 19, 2026, in Rio de Janeiro to address a request from shareholder Previ, which holds 7.01% of the company’s share capital. The meeting reflected ongoing governance debat...
Vale Files Routine June 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
Jun 15, 2026
Vale S.A. has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for June 2026, providing its latest disclosures as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The document, largely composed of boilerplate re...
Vale Deepens ISSB-Aligned ESG Reporting and Bets on Circular Mining in 2025 Sustainability Report
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Vale released its 2025 Sustainability-Related Financial Information Report, voluntarily aligning for a second year with the International Sustainability Standards Board’s framework to detail financially material sustainabil...
Vale Receives Shareholder Request for Extraordinary Meeting to Reshuffle Board Leadership
Jun 12, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Vale reported that it had received a request from shareholder Caixa de Previdência dos Funcionários do Banco do Brasil – Previ to convene an Extraordinary General Meeting to vote on governance changes. Previ is se...
Vale Files June 2026 Form 6-K as Foreign Private Issuer
Jun 9, 2026
Vale S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2026, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed on June 9, 2026 by Director of Investor Relations Thiago Lofi...
Vale Lifts Long-Term EBITDA Share Target for Base Metals Unit to 28%
Jun 9, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Vale S.A. announced an update to its long-term indicative guidance for the contribution of its subsidiary, Vale Base Metals Ltd., to the group’s consolidated EBITDA, estimating that the base metals arm will account for appro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.