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Vale SA (VALE)
NYSE:VALE

Vale SA (VALE) AI Stock Analysis

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VALE

Vale SA

(NYSE:VALE)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(6.38% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is primarily supported by stable financial footing and a constructive technical setup (price above key moving averages with positive momentum), plus a favorable earnings-call tone with reiterated guidance and disciplined capital allocation. Offsetting these are materially weaker post-peak profitability and cash flows, and a less attractive valuation for a cyclical company due to the high P/E despite the strong dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Scale & low-cost iron ore position
Vale's sheer scale and low all‑in iron ore cost place it at the low end of the global cost curve. Sustained high volumes and sub-$60/ton all‑in costs support durable cash margins through cycles, enabling competitive market share maintenance and resilient cash generation even if prices soften.
Expanding base‑metals platform
Double‑digit production growth in copper and nickel and materially higher Base Metals EBITDA broaden Vale’s commodity mix, lowering reliance on iron ore alone. A larger, improving base‑metals franchise supports structural exposure to energy transition demand and diversifies long‑term revenue and cash flow sources.
Stronger governance, remediation and capital discipline
Progress on dam de‑risking, advanced reparations execution and stricter risk/governance policies reduce long‑term operating and reputational tail risks. Combined with disciplined CapEx, sustained FCF and a net‑debt target, this reinforces financial flexibility and the firm's ability to fund projects and returns over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Earnings & cash‑flow normalization
Profits and free cash flow have normalized substantially from cyclical peaks, reflecting high earnings sensitivity to commodity prices. Lower structural profitability and weaker cash conversion reduce the margin for investment, shareholder returns and balance‑sheet repair during extended commodity downcycles.
Legacy liabilities and legal/regulatory exposure
Ongoing legacy settlements and remediation programs consume cash and create contingent liabilities, while fresh legal actions and asset‑freeze requests raise regulatory uncertainty. Persistent legacy costs can constrain long‑term capital allocation, elevate financing needs and weigh on investor access and reputational standing.
Base‑metals cost position & byproduct dependence
Reliance on byproduct credits and a still‑weak nickel cost position imply earnings from Base Metals may be volatile and vulnerable to byproduct price swings. Until cost reductions are structural, margin sustainability and returns from metals critical to the energy transition remain uncertain over the medium term.

Vale SA (VALE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vale SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells iron ore, iron ore pellets, nickel, and copper in Brazil and internationally. The company operates through Iron Solutions and Energy Transition Materials segments. The Iron Solutions segment produces and extracts iron ore and pellets, and other ferrous products; and provides related logistic services. The Energy Transition Materials segment produces and extracts nickel; and its by-products, such as gold, silver, cobalt, precious metals, and others, as well as copper used in the construction sector to produce pipes and electrical wires. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
How the Company Makes MoneyVale generates revenue primarily through the sale of iron ore and nickel, which are its key products. Iron ore accounts for a significant portion of the company's revenue, driven by strong demand from the steel industry, particularly in emerging markets like China. In addition to iron ore and nickel, Vale also earns revenue from copper, cobalt, and coal operations. The company has established long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with various steelmakers and other industrial companies, which ensures a steady demand for its products. Vale's revenue is also influenced by global commodity prices, production levels, and operational efficiency. Furthermore, Vale invests in research and development to improve its mining technologies and reduce costs, which contributes to its profitability.

Vale SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability from core operations across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Chart InsightsVale's Iron Ore Fines segment remains a key driver of EBITDA, reflecting robust production and favorable pricing. The latest earnings call highlights a 17% year-over-year EBITDA increase, bolstered by cost reductions and strategic project advancements. Copper and Base Metals segments show significant growth, with copper production up 6% and Base Metals EBITDA rising by over $400 million. However, challenges in the pellet market and potential regulatory impacts could pose risks. Vale's strategic focus on operational excellence and cost management is crucial for sustaining growth amid these challenges.
Data provided by:The Fly

Vale SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution across iron ore and Base Metals, notable production and profitability gains (Q4 pro forma EBITDA +17% YoY, iron ore production +3%, copper +10%, nickel +11%), meaningful cost and CapEx discipline, and sizable shareholder returns (16% dividend yield). Management acknowledged some short-term cost and price volatility (Q4 C1 up 13% YoY, realized price swings, localized operational incidents) and remaining challenges in fully derisking investor restrictions and pushing nickel to the lower half of the cost curve. Overall, the positives — consistent outperformance vs. guidance, material cost and capital optimizations, robust cash generation, and visible low‑capital growth projects — markedly outweigh the challenges discussed.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Safety Improvements
21% reduction in high-potential incidents in 2025, continued progress on safety culture and focus on accident-free environment.
Tailings Dam Milestones
Eliminated all dams classified at emergency level 3 by 2025 (commitment fulfilled); 77% reduction in structures at any emergency level vs. 2020, with an expected 86% reduction by end-2026.
Reparations Progress
Reached 81% execution of the Brumadinho agreement and disbursed BRL 73 billion under the Mariana agreement, advancing reparations efforts materially.
Iron Ore Production Growth
Iron ore production reached 336 million tonnes in 2025, up 3% year-on-year — the highest level since 2018 — driven by start-ups (Capanema, Vargem Grande) and strong performance at Brucutu and S11D.
Base Metals Production Growth
Vale Base Metals delivered double-digit growth: copper production 382 kt in 2025 (+10% YoY) and nickel production 177 kt in 2025 (+11% YoY), supported by Voisey's Bay expansion and Onça Puma furnace 2.
Material Cost Reductions in Base Metals
Management reported substantial all-in cost improvements: copper all-in moved down by roughly $2,000/ton to about -$900/ton (reflecting strong byproduct credits) and nickel all-in improved to approximately $9,000/ton (management cited a ~35% YoY decline).
Iron Ore Cost Competitiveness
Iron ore all-in cost around $54/ton in 2025, a $2/ton YoY reduction despite weaker pellet premiums; company reiterates position at very low end of global industry cost curve.
Strong Quarterly and Segment EBITDA
Pro forma EBITDA in Q4 2025: $4.8 billion (+17% YoY, +10% QoQ). Vale Base Metals EBITDA doubled YoY and sequentially to $1.4 billion in the quarter; iron ore EBITDA remained a solid ~$4.0 billion.
Robust Cash Generation and Balance Sheet
Recurring free cash flow in Q4 ~ $1.7 billion (more than double YoY). Expanded net debt closed at $15.6 billion, inside target range ($10–20B).
Disciplined Capital Allocation & Shareholder Returns
Annual CapEx in 2025 of $5.5 billion (in line with guidance); long-term CapEx guidance set below $6 billion after an annual CapEx optimization > $500 million. Announced $2.8 billion in dividends/interest on capital and delivered a 2025 dividend yield of 16%.
Growth Projects and Novo Carajás
Novo Carajás program launched to double copper output; Bacaba received construction license in Jan (start-up expected H1 2028, 50 ktpa copper). Serra Sul +20 Mt iron ore project to begin commissioning in H2 2026.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Cost Headwinds in Iron Ore C1
C1 cash cost (ex-3rd party) rose 13% YoY in Q4 driven by adverse BRL exchange rate and higher planned maintenance in the northern system, and higher volumes in Southern/Southeastern systems.
Realized Price Volatility and Mix Effects
Q4 iron ore price realization declined vs Q3 due to lower market premiums and mix optimization: IOCJ premiums down roughly $3.5/ton and BRBF down ~$0.50/ton; introduction of mid‑grade products may produce swings in realized prices.
Reliance on Byproduct Credits in Base Metals
Part of copper's negative all-in result was driven by strong byproduct (notably gold) revenue; management acknowledged remaining dependence on byproduct prices and the need to reach lower-cost positions independent of credits.
Operational Incident at Fabrica/Viga
Overflow of water and sediments at Fabrica/Viga due to very heavy rainfall; operations impacted (expected remediation in 2–3 weeks), prompting reviews of resilience measures though no geotechnical dam failures were reported.
Residual Investor Restrictions Post-Accidents
Following past accidents, an estimated ~$5 trillion AUM became restricted from investing in Vale; management estimates ~30% (~$1.5T) has been unlocked, implying roughly $3.5T of AUM remains restricted and requires ongoing remediation/engagement.
Nickel Still Cost-Challenged
Despite meaningful improvements, management acknowledged Vale's nickel franchise remains on the 'wrong end' of the cost curve and must reach at least cash breakeven by year-end; sector dynamics (e.g., Indonesia licensing) add uncertainty to price/supply.
Market/Valuation Discount
Management noted Vale still trades at roughly a ~20% discount to peers, implying market recognition for growth (especially Base Metals) remains incomplete.
Chinese Inventory and Market Volatility
High Chinese port inventories (~170 million tonnes) create quarterly volatility in iron ore pricing; while consolidated inventories translate to ~35 days of consumption (within typical range), short-term price swings remain a risk.
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 guidance and targets across costs, growth and capital: C1 cash costs are expected at $20.0–$21.5/ton in 2026 (2025 C1 closed at $21.3/t), iron ore all‑in costs averaged $54.2/t in 2025 (Q4 $54.3/t), Vale Base Metals guidance at Vale Day was copper all‑in $1,000–$1,500/t and nickel ~ $13,000/t (2025 realized copper all‑in ~‑$900/t, nickel all‑in ~$9,000/t) with a target of at least cash breakeven in nickel by end‑2026; 2026 CapEx is guided at $5.4–$5.7 billion (2025 CapEx $5.5b) with long‑term CapEx guidance below $6b after >$500m pa optimization, Serra Sul +20 Mt commissioning in H2‑2026 and Bacaba start‑up expected H1‑2028 (50,000 tpa Cu), expanded net debt target remains $10–$20b (closed Q4 at ~$15.6b, objective to operate near the midpoint), recurring FCF was ~$1.7b in Q4, reparations cash outflows expected to fall by ≈$1.5b in 2026 vs 2025, and shareholder returns include $2.8b announced in dividends/interest on capital (including $1b extraordinary paid; 2025 dividend yield 16%).

Vale SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Balance sheet strength is relatively solid (manageable leverage and sizable equity base), but earnings and cash flows have normalized sharply from 2021–2022 peaks (net income and FCF materially lower). Operating cash flow and free cash flow remain positive, yet weaker and less supportive of near-term momentum.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Revenue has been volatile, declining in 2022–2024 and only modestly rebounding in 2025 (+3.5%). Profitability has compressed meaningfully from the 2021–2022 peak (net income down from ~$22.4B in 2021 to ~$2.5B in 2025), indicating higher earnings sensitivity to the cycle/price environment. Margins were strong historically (2021–2023), but the sharp step-down in profits over the last two years is the key weakness.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Leverage appears manageable: debt-to-equity was ~0.43–0.53 in 2022–2024, and equity remains sizable (~$33–39B) against a large asset base (~$80–94B). Total debt has risen in the last two years (from ~$16.8B in 2023 to ~$19.4B in 2025), which reduces flexibility, but overall capitalization still looks reasonable for a cyclical materials company. Returns on equity were very strong in 2021–2023 and cooled in 2024, consistent with the earnings normalization.
Cash Flow
61
Positive
Cash generation remains positive, but has weakened from peak levels: operating cash flow declined from ~$25.7B (2021) to ~$9.0B (2025), and free cash flow fell from ~$20.6B (2021) to ~$3.1B (2025). Free cash flow growth was negative in 2024 and only slightly positive in 2025, showing a less supportive cash environment. In 2023–2024, operating cash flow covered only ~0.72–0.92x of net income and free cash flow was a relatively modest share of net income in 2024, pointing to less earnings-to-cash conversion recently.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue38.23B38.06B41.78B43.84B54.50B
Gross Profit13.14B13.79B17.70B19.81B32.77B
EBITDA14.12B11.07B15.56B23.74B34.13B
Net Income2.47B6.17B7.98B18.79B22.45B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets86.88B80.25B93.87B86.89B89.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.60B5.01B3.66B4.80B11.90B
Total Debt19.39B17.74B16.80B15.44B17.20B
Total Liabilities52.41B45.69B53.04B49.54B54.14B
Stockholders Equity33.63B33.43B39.31B35.87B34.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.06B2.88B7.36B6.04B20.65B
Operating Cash Flow9.04B9.39B13.40B11.48B25.68B
Investing Cash Flow-7.19B-5.79B-6.49B-4.69B-6.61B
Financing Cash Flow221.78M-2.13B-7.41B-13.91B-20.28B

Vale SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.92
Price Trends
50DMA
14.84
Positive
100DMA
13.08
Positive
200DMA
11.19
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.47
Positive
RSI
60.41
Neutral
STOCH
48.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.54, above the 50-day MA of 14.84, and above the 200-day MA of 11.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VALE.

Vale SA Risk Analysis

Vale SA disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vale SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vale SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$186.65B18.4521.38%3.55%-7.86%14.17%
69
Neutral
$167.64B15.5717.00%4.60%-0.44%-4.20%
68
Neutral
$68.75B27.626.88%10.04%-8.49%-41.69%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
$1.50B-93.80-1.64%1.14%7.92%91.83%
61
Neutral
$10.27B-6.83%26.44%-95.87%
55
Neutral
$989.23M-14.48%11.32%61.60%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VALE
Vale SA
16.92
8.09
91.62%
BHP
BHP Group
78.01
29.36
60.34%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
23.69
11.93
101.45%
RIO
Rio Tinto
97.67
39.14
66.87%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
11.71
6.27
115.26%
MP
MP Materials
55.70
32.14
136.42%

Vale SA Corporate Events

Vale Files Routine February 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
Feb 13, 2026

Vale S.A., the Brazilian mining group, filed its Form 6-K as a foreign private issuer for the month of February 2026 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing, signed on February 13, 2026 by Director of Investor Relations Thiago Lofiego, is an administrative submission that does not disclose new operational, financial or strategic information for investors.

The document formally confirms Vale’s ongoing compliance with U.S. reporting requirements under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. While routine in nature, the filing underscores the company’s continued presence in U.S. capital markets and its obligation to provide periodic disclosures to American regulators and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale’s 2025 Profit Slumps on Asset Impairments and Legacy Dam Costs
Feb 13, 2026

Vale reported its full-year 2025 results on December 31, 2025, showing consolidated net operating revenue of R$213.6 billion, roughly flat versus 2024, but net income attributable to shareholders dropped to R$13.8 billion from R$31.6 billion a year earlier. The decline in profitability reflects a sharp R$25.1 billion impairment and loss on disposals of non-current assets, higher income tax expenses and lower operating income, even as cash generation from operations remained strong at R$74.3 billion.

The company continued to deploy significant cash outflows on legacy issues and financial commitments in 2025, including R$4.8 billion for the Brumadinho dam disaster programs, R$2.1 billion for dam de-characterization, and R$5.1 billion related to participative debentures, which weighed on net cash from operating activities, down to R$48.8 billion from R$50.2 billion in 2024. Comprehensive income attributable to shareholders fell to R$9.8 billion from R$36.1 billion, pressured by adverse foreign-currency translation effects, and basic earnings per share more than halved to R$3.24, underscoring how asset impairments, taxes and ongoing remediation payments are constraining returns to investors despite resilient top-line performance and operating cash flow.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale 2025 Results: Profit Hit by Impairments as Cash Generation Remains Resilient
Feb 13, 2026

For the year ended December 31, 2025, Vale reported net operating revenue of $38.4 billion, broadly flat versus 2024 but below 2023 levels, as gross profit slipped to $13.5 billion. Net income attributable to shareholders fell sharply to $2.35 billion from $6.17 billion in 2024, pressured by a $4.6 billion net impairment and disposal charge that weighed on operating income, which dropped to $5.9 billion.

The miner continued to generate solid cash from operations, with $8.8 billion in net operating cash flow in 2025, though this was down from 2023 as it absorbed ongoing payments tied to the Brumadinho and Samarco dam failures. Heavy capital expenditure and settlement outflows were partly offset by new borrowing and subordinated notes issuance, leaving financing cash flow slightly positive and underscoring Vale’s need to balance shareholder returns, legacy obligations, and investment in its asset base.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Fiscal Council Backs 2025 Accounts and Profit Allocation Ahead of AGM
Feb 13, 2026

Vale’s fiscal council has reviewed the company’s full set of financial statements and management report for the year ended Dec. 31, 2025 and, relying on the independent auditors’ work, concluded they comply with Brazilian corporate law and are suitable for submission to the ordinary general shareholders’ meeting. The council also examined management’s proposal for the allocation of 2025 results and deemed it appropriate for shareholder consideration, signaling internal endorsement of Vale’s financial reporting and profit distribution plans as of Feb. 12, 2026.

The opinions, signed in Rio de Janeiro on Feb. 12, 2026 by the fiscal council members, clear a key governance hurdle ahead of the upcoming annual meeting, where shareholders will vote on the accounts and the allocation of earnings. This step reinforces the company’s adherence to local corporate governance requirements and provides additional assurance to investors regarding the integrity of Vale’s 2025 financial disclosures and capital allocation framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Details Intensive 2025 Audit and Risk Oversight in February 2026 Governance Report
Feb 13, 2026

In February 2026, Vale reported on the activities of its statutory Audit and Risk Committee for the 2025 fiscal year, detailing its fully independent composition and leadership changes over the year, including the appointment of Heloísa Belotti Bedicks as coordinator from July 2025. The committee, supported by external experts, met 11 times in 2025 for lengthy sessions that covered 157 topics, underscoring an intensive oversight agenda focused on financial reporting quality, risk management and compliance.

The report highlights the committee’s broad remit supervising financial statements prepared under Brazilian practices and IFRS, interactions with PricewaterhouseCoopers, and close monitoring of contingent liabilities, related-party transactions and Vale Base Metals’ financials. It also documents tight coordination with the Audit and Compliance Board on ethics, anti-corruption measures, whistleblowing, internal audit, data-driven monitoring and regulatory interactions with SEC, CVM and B3, signaling a continued push to strengthen internal controls, transparency and governance, which is material for investors and regulators following Vale’s risk and compliance track record.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Posts Strong 2025 Results as Iron Ore Rebounds and Base Metals Earnings Surge
Feb 13, 2026

In its management report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, Vale reported consolidated net sales revenue of BRL 213.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA of BRL 85.9 billion and net income attributable to shareholders of BRL 13.8 billion, supported by stronger iron ore, copper and nickel production and BRL 48.8 billion of operating cash flow. The company highlighted progress in safety, governance, structural efficiency and dam management, while investing BRL 30.6 billion and approving BRL 23.4 billion in dividends and interest on capital, reinforcing its positioning as a key low-carbon supplier to industrial and energy-transition economies.

Iron ore output reached 336 million tonnes in 2025, the highest level since 2018, with sales of 314 million tonnes, but segment EBITDA fell 6% to BRL 76.7 billion as lower benchmark prices and pellet premiums outweighed cost reductions and volume gains. Vale Base Metals delivered net revenues of BRL 46 billion, up 28.2% year-on-year, as copper and nickel production rose 9.8% and 10.8% respectively and adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to BRL 18.5 billion, driven by record copper output at Salobo, improved Canadian operations and tighter cost guidance for both metals.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Posts Strong 2025 Results, Lifts Payouts and Advances Growth and ESG Agenda
Feb 13, 2026

Vale reported strong operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, released on February 12, 2026, with iron ore, copper and nickel sales all growing year on year and Proforma EBITDA rising to $4.8 billion in 4Q25 and $15.9 billion in 2025. The company reduced iron ore and base metals all-in costs for a second consecutive year, generated higher recurring free cash flow, cut expanded net debt to $15.6 billion and confirmed $2.8 billion of shareholder payouts in early 2026, even as headline net income was hit by impairments and legacy provisions.

Operationally, Vale reached its highest iron ore and copper output since 2018 and double‑digit nickel growth, supported by improved asset reliability and ramp‑ups at Capanema, Vargem Grande, VBME and Onça Puma, while advancing new projects such as Serra Sul +20, the Bacaba copper project and a potential Sudbury copper joint venture with Glencore. The miner also marked progress on ESG and reparation fronts, removing emergency levels from key tailings dams, eliminating another upstream structure, co‑leading a Brazilian mining decarbonization initiative, and advancing compensation and reparation programs related to the Brumadinho and Mariana disasters, with most Brumadinho commitments and substantial Samarco payouts already executed.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Details Internal Holdings of Shares and ADSs as of January 31, 2026
Feb 11, 2026

On January 31, 2026, Vale S.A. reported that it held 96,075,657 of its own VALE3 shares, representing 2.12% of the share class and of total capital, and 5,237,459 ADSs, equivalent to 0.12% of the same class and total capital. The disclosure indicates no share repurchase movements on that date, suggesting a stable treasury position and signaling no incremental buyback activity that might affect the company’s free float or capital structure.

On the same date, affiliate MBR S.A. reported no holdings in VALE3 shares or ADSs, while Vale Holdings B.V. held 165,379,611 Vale ADSs, corresponding to 3.64% of the same class and total capital. These positions, reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on February 10, 2026, clarify the distribution of Vale equity across group entities, providing investors with transparency on internal holdings and potential influences on market liquidity and governance dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Reports Court Rejection of Most Asset Freeze Requests After January Overflows
Feb 10, 2026

On February 9, 2026, Vale reported that three preliminary asset-freeze requests totaling R$ 2.846 billion tied to recent environmental incidents had been denied by Brazilian courts, leaving only one pending request for R$ 200 million. The company noted that courts have nonetheless upheld other preliminary measures, including the continued suspension of operations at its Fábrica and Viga units, which Vale had already halted on January 25, 2026, and the requirement to prepare a Degraded Areas Recovery Plan.

Vale emphasized that the overflows at the Fábrica and Viga units in January 2026 were unrelated to any of its dams, which it said remain in safe condition under 24/7 monitoring. It stated that investigations into the causes are ongoing, while it prioritizes protection of people, communities, and the environment, cooperates with authorities, and continues sediment removal and cleanup activities in the affected areas, developments that may influence operational continuity and regulatory scrutiny.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Faces New Asset Freeze Requests Over January Overflows at Minas Gerais Units
Feb 6, 2026

On February 5, 2026, Vale S.A. reported three new legal proceedings in Brazil seeking preliminary injunctions, including substantial asset freezes, in connection with tailings overflows recorded in January 2026 at its Fábrica and Viga operational units in Ouro Preto and Congonhas, Minas Gerais. The actions were filed by the Brazilian Federal Prosecutor’s Office and the State of Minas Gerais over the Viga incident, requesting asset freezes of R$200 million and R$1 billion respectively, and jointly by the State Prosecutor’s Office of Minas Gerais and the State of Minas Gerais over the Fábrica overflow, seeking a further R$846 million. Vale emphasized that the January 2026 overflows are unrelated to any of its dams, which it says remain in safe, continuously monitored condition, and noted it is cooperating with authorities, investigating the causes, removing sediments and advancing a Degraded Area Recovery Plan. The proceedings underscore renewed legal and environmental scrutiny of Vale’s operations in Minas Gerais, with potential financial exposure and reputational implications as the company seeks to demonstrate improved risk management and remediation efforts following past disasters in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Faces R$1 Billion Asset Freeze Request Over Fábrica Mine Overflow in Brazil
Feb 2, 2026

On February 1, 2026, Vale S.A. reported that Brazil’s Federal Prosecutor’s Office (MPF) has filed a preliminary injunction for protective relief related to an overflow incident at the Fábrica mine in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, where water and sediments ran off into downstream areas. The MPF has requested injunctive measures including an asset freeze of R$1 billion to prevent what it alleges could be worsening environmental damage, and Vale, which has already submitted an initial statement to the case records, said it will present its full legal defense within the applicable deadline, highlighting a potential new layer of legal and environmental scrutiny around its Brazilian mining operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Beats 2025 Production Targets as Iron Ore and Copper Hit Highest Levels Since 2018
Jan 27, 2026

In January 2026, Vale reported that it delivered strong operational results in 2025, surpassing its original production guidance across all business segments as iron ore and copper output reached their highest levels since 2018, at 336 million tonnes and 382,400 tonnes respectively, while nickel production rose to 177,200 tonnes, the strongest since 2022. Fourth-quarter 2025 iron ore output climbed 6% year-on-year to 90.4 million tonnes, driven by robust performance at Brucutu and the ramp-up of the Capanema and VGR1 projects, even as Northern System volumes fell on maintenance and run-of-mine constraints; pellets production declined 9% to 8.3 million tonnes amid weaker market conditions, with pellet feed redirected to fines to optimize value, and the São Luís pellet plant kept under maintenance pending a market-driven restart decision. Copper production in Q4 2025 increased 6% year-on-year to 108,100 tonnes, the highest quarterly level since 2018, underpinned by record Salobo volumes and steady operations at Sossego and Canadian assets, while nickel output edged up 2% to 46,200 tonnes on the successful commissioning of Onça Puma’s second furnace and the ramp-up of Voisey’s Bay underground mines. Iron ore sales for the quarter rose 4.5% year-on-year to 84.9 million tonnes, copper and nickel sales also grew, and realized prices for iron ore fines and copper improved, though iron ore all‑in premiums and pellet price premia declined, reflecting lower market premiums and a strategic shift toward medium‑grade products such as Mid‑grade Carajás, BRBF blends and concentrated products in China to maximize margins and value generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Files Routine January 2026 Form 6-K as Foreign Issuer
Jan 27, 2026

In January 2026, Vale S.A., the Brazilian mining giant and major global supplier of iron ore and nickel, filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The filing, signed by Director of Investor Relations Thiago Lofiego on January 26, 2026, is an administrative disclosure indicating Vale’s ongoing compliance with U.S. reporting requirements for foreign issuers, but it does not itself disclose new operational, financial, or strategic developments affecting the company or its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Files January 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
Jan 27, 2026

On January 26, 2026, Vale S.A., acting as a foreign private issuer in the United States, filed its Form 6-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of January 2026, formally certifying the submission through its Director of Investor Relations, Thiago Lofiego. While the filing itself is procedural and does not disclose operational or strategic developments, it underscores Vale’s ongoing compliance with U.S. securities regulations and its continued engagement with international investors through regular reporting obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Says Minas Gerais Water Overflows Contained, Dams Unaffected
Jan 26, 2026

On January 26, 2026, Vale S.A. reported that water overflows detected on January 25 in the municipalities of Congonhas and Ouro Preto, in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, had been contained without injuries or impacts to nearby populations and communities. The company stressed that the incidents were not related to any of its dams in the region, that no mining tailings were released—only water with soil sediments—and that the stability and safety conditions of its dams remain unchanged and are monitored continuously. Vale said it routinely carries out preventive inspection and maintenance on its structures, with additional reinforcement during heavy rains, and that it is investigating the causes of the overflows so that any lessons learned can be incorporated into its rainfall management plans, while remaining available to authorities for further clarification, a stance aimed at reassuring stakeholders about its operational and environmental risk controls in a sensitive mining area.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Says Sediment-Water Overflow at Fábrica Mine Caused No Injuries, Guidance Unchanged
Jan 26, 2026

On January 26, 2026, Vale S.A. reported that in the early hours of the preceding Sunday an overflow of water with sediments occurred from a pit at its Fábrica mine in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, affecting areas owned by a third-party company but causing no injuries or impact on local residents or surrounding communities. The miner said the incident was unrelated to any of its dams in the region, which it stressed remain stable and under continuous monitoring, and noted that it promptly notified authorities and launched an investigation into the causes while reaffirming that its previously disclosed operational guidance remains unchanged.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Settles 3rd-Series 8th-Issue Debentures, Pays R$130 Million to Investors
Jan 14, 2026

On January 15, 2026, Vale S.A. was scheduled to pay a total of R$130.0 million in interest, amortization and monetary adjustment related to its 8th-issue debentures to holders registered at the close of January 14, 2026, via B3 and Banco Itaú Unibanco. The payment marks the full settlement of the 3rd series of this debenture issue, which matures on January 15, 2026, while the 4th series remains outstanding, with partial amortization equivalent to 16% of its nominal unit value being made; the move underscores Vale’s ongoing capacity to meet its domestic debt obligations and manage its capital structure in Brazil’s local credit markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Files Routine January 2026 Form 6-K with U.S. SEC
Jan 13, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Vale S.A. submitted a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of January 2026, confirming its ongoing reporting obligations as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The filing, signed by Director of Investor Relations Thiago Lofiego, is largely procedural and does not disclose new operational, financial, or strategic developments, but it underscores Vale’s continued compliance with U.S. regulatory requirements and its commitment to transparent communication with international investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Sets Late-January and Mid-February Dates for Release of 4Q25 Results
Jan 13, 2026

On January 12, 2026, Vale S.A. announced the timetable for releasing its fourth-quarter 2025 (4Q25) results, signaling key dates for investors and analysts tracking the mining giant’s operational and financial performance. The company will publish its 4Q25 production and sales report after market close on January 27, 2026, followed by the full 4Q25 financial performance report after market close on February 12, 2026, and will host an English-language conference call and webcast, with simultaneous Portuguese translation, on February 13, 2026. The scheduled disclosures underscore the importance of Vale’s quarterly data for stakeholders assessing the company’s position amid volatile metals prices, global industrial cycles and competitive pressures in the mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Discloses Capital World Investors Raising Stake Above 5%
Jan 13, 2026

On January 12, 2026, Vale S.A. disclosed that Capital World Investors had increased its stake in the miner to 227,690,911 common shares, equivalent to 5.02% of Vale’s total issued share capital, up from 4.61% previously. The investment, along with additional minority holdings in Vale shares by other Capital Research and Management Company divisions, remains non-controlling and does not alter Vale’s ownership or management structure, but underscores continued institutional investor confidence in the company without signaling any immediate change in its strategic direction or governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale Showcases 2024 Operating Strength and Iron Ore Expansion Strategy in Latest Investor Presentation
Jan 13, 2026

In an institutional investor presentation dated December 2025 and filed in January 2026, Vale detailed its 2024 operating and financial performance, highlighting 328 million tonnes of iron ore production, 37 million tonnes of pellets and strong contributions from its base metals division, which together generated US$38.1 billion in net operating revenue, US$15.4 billion in pro forma EBITDA and US$6.0 billion in capital expenditures. The company underscored its focus on integrated iron ore “solutions” – from mining to logistics and blending hubs – to preserve and grow market share in key regions, while expanding pellet and briquette capacity to support lower‑carbon steelmaking, and it reported dividends and interest on capital of US$3.9 billion, ongoing share buybacks, balance sheet discipline with expanded net debt of US$16.6 billion as of October 31, 2025, and continued progress on dam decharacterization and ESG metrics that are central to its long-term positioning in the global mining and steel value chain.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Submits SEC Report for December 2025
Dec 10, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Vale S.A. submitted a report to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, signed by Thiago Lofiego, the Director of Investor Relations. This submission is part of their compliance with the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, indicating ongoing adherence to regulatory requirements, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and transparency in their operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $14.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Implements New Governance Policy for Enhanced Management
Dec 10, 2025

Vale S.A. has established a comprehensive Business and Entity Management Policy to ensure adherence to best corporate governance practices. This policy, effective since April 26, 2023, outlines guidelines for managing companies and entities within the Vale Group, emphasizing a lean and functional organizational structure aligned with Vale’s values and strategy. It categorizes entities into various types based on operational control and shareholding, aiming to optimize strategic management and risk oversight. The policy’s implementation is expected to enhance Vale’s governance framework, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $14.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Launches New Water Management Policy to Enhance Sustainability
Dec 10, 2025

On November 17, 2025, Vale S.A. issued a new administrative policy aimed at enhancing the responsible management of water resources throughout its project life cycle. This policy underscores the company’s commitment to sustainability by promoting water efficiency, conservation, and equitable access in the regions it operates. It involves strengthening partnerships with scientific institutions to improve understanding of hydrological and climatic contexts, fostering operational resilience, and engaging stakeholders in transparent dialogue to ensure the sustainable use of water resources. This initiative is expected to bolster Vale’s reputation and operational excellence while contributing positively to environmental conservation and community engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $14.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Unveils New Risk Management Policy to Enhance Safety and Sustainability
Dec 10, 2025

On November 27, 2025, Vale S.A. announced the issuance of a new corporate policy focused on risk management, emphasizing the importance of proactively managing risks to safeguard its employees, third parties, and the environment. The policy outlines a comprehensive risk management framework, including risk identification, analysis, monitoring, and communication, to enhance decision-making and align with institutional objectives. By adopting best market practices and international standards, Vale aims to optimize capital allocation, strengthen asset management, and support strategic planning and sustainability. This initiative is expected to reinforce Vale’s governance practices and improve its operational continuity and reputation.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $14.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Files December 2025 SEC Report
Dec 10, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Vale S.A. filed a report with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, as part of its compliance with the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This filing, signed by Thiago Lofiego, Director of Investor Relations, underscores Vale’s commitment to maintaining transparency and regulatory compliance, which is crucial for its operations and stakeholder trust.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $14.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Announces 2026 Corporate Events Schedule
Dec 5, 2025

Vale S.A. has announced its annual calendar of corporate events for 2026, detailing important dates for financial disclosures and meetings. The schedule includes the release of complete annual financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2025, on February 12, 2026, and the annual general meeting set for April 30, 2026. This announcement is crucial for stakeholders as it outlines the company’s timeline for financial transparency and governance activities, impacting investor relations and corporate strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. to Appeal R$730 Million Court Decision
Dec 4, 2025

On December 4, 2025, Vale S.A. addressed a recent court decision involving the Federal Union’s Attorney General, which mandates the company to pay R$730 million. Vale plans to appeal the decision, arguing it contradicts existing laws on Financial Compensation for Mineral Exploration and Transfer Pricing. This legal development could impact Vale’s financial obligations and its position within the mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Submits December 2025 SEC Filing
Dec 2, 2025

Vale S.A., a prominent player in the mining industry, reported its latest filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for December 2025. The report, filed under Form 6-K, is a routine disclosure for foreign private issuers, indicating compliance with regulatory requirements. This filing is part of Vale’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency and adhere to international financial reporting standards, which is crucial for its stakeholders and investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Updates Production and Financial Estimates for 2025 and Beyond
Dec 2, 2025

On December 2, 2025, Vale S.A. announced an update to its production and financial estimates for the coming years. The company projects stable production volumes for iron ore and nickel, with growth expected in copper production. Vale also outlined its capital investment plans, emphasizing maintenance and growth investments across its operations. The company is committed to significant expenditures related to the decharacterization of dams and settlements for past incidents, such as Brumadinho and Mariana. These updates reflect Vale’s strategic focus on optimizing production costs and addressing past liabilities, which are crucial for maintaining its competitive position in the mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale and Glencore Partner for Sudbury Copper Project
Dec 2, 2025

On December 2, 2025, Vale Base Metals, a subsidiary of Vale S.A., announced an agreement with Glencore Canada to explore a potential copper development project in the Sudbury Basin. This collaboration aims to leverage existing infrastructure at Glencore’s Nickel Rim South Mine to access underground copper deposits, with plans to produce 880 kt of copper over 21 years. The project, estimated to cost between US$ 1.6 billion and US$ 2.0 billion, also includes the extraction of nickel, cobalt, gold, PGMs, and other minerals. Detailed planning and consultations are set for 2026, with a final investment decision expected in early 2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Announces Shareholder Remuneration for 2025
Nov 28, 2025

On November 27, 2025, Vale S.A. announced that its Board of Directors approved a distribution of shareholder remuneration, amounting to R$ 3.581771057 per share. Shareholders on record as of December 11, 2025, will receive dividends and interest on equity payments in January and March 2026. This decision reflects Vale’s ongoing commitment to its Shareholder Remuneration Policy and is influenced by its current share buyback program, which may slightly affect the final payout amounts. The announcement underscores Vale’s strategic financial management and its impact on shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Announces Vale Day 2025 in London
Nov 25, 2025

Vale S.A. announced that its annual meeting with capital market participants, known as Vale Day 2025, will take place in London on December 2, 2025. This event, which will be broadcast live, is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s future strategies and market positioning, amidst the challenges of global economic conditions and competitive pressures in the mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $12.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Maintains Baa2 Rating with Stable Outlook as of November 2025
Nov 20, 2025

On November 19, 2025, Vale S.A. announced that Moody’s Investor Service has reaffirmed its Baa2 rating with a stable outlook. This affirmation reflects Vale’s strong credit profile, supported by its dominant market position in the mining industry, particularly in iron ore and nickel, and a growing presence in copper. The company’s low leverage, strong balance sheet, and excellent liquidity are highlighted, although its rating is constrained by the sovereign rating of Brazil due to asset concentration. The stable outlook suggests continued strong operational and financial performance, with expectations of balanced cash flow contributions from iron ore and base metals.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $12.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Vale S.A. Subsidiary Prices $750 Million Notes Offering
Nov 19, 2025

On November 18, 2025, Vale S.A.’s subsidiary, Vale Overseas Limited, successfully priced an offering of $750 million in subordinated dated fixed to reset notes due in 2056. These notes, guaranteed by Vale, will bear an initial interest rate of 6.000% per annum, with interest payments deferred at Vale Overseas’ discretion. The proceeds from this offering are intended for general corporate purposes, including replenishing cash reserves following a recent debenture acquisition. This financial maneuver is part of Vale’s broader strategy to manage its capital structure and ensure liquidity, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALE) stock is a Hold with a $12.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vale SA stock, see the VALE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026