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Vale SA
(NYSE:VALE)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▼(-10.01% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/11/26
VALE scores 66 primarily due to moderate financial performance (cycle-weaker profitability and uneven cash conversion) balanced by an encouraging earnings update (EBITDA/FCF growth and base-metals improvements) and supportive valuation (low P/E and solid yield). Technicals are neutral-to-mixed, with limited near-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Value unlock in base metals (VBM)
A materially stronger Vale Base Metals unit diversifies earnings away from iron ore cyclicality. Sustained higher base‑metals volumes and doubled EBITDA indicate durable structural leverage to electrification metals, improving revenue mix resilience and lowering dependence on single‑commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Rising unit costs for iron ore
Sustained increases in C1 and all‑in cash costs compress margin durability for iron ore, Vale's core revenue engine. If currency and fuel pressures persist, higher structural cost curves reduce upside from price rallies and tighten free cash flow under midcycle pricing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Value unlock in base metals (VBM)
A materially stronger Vale Base Metals unit diversifies earnings away from iron ore cyclicality. Sustained higher base‑metals volumes and doubled EBITDA indicate durable structural leverage to electrification metals, improving revenue mix resilience and lowering dependence on single‑commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Vale SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability from core operations across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Shows profitability from core operations across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVale SA (VALE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$62.44B
Dividend Yield10.04%
Average Volume (3M)23.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.0
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth4.64%
EPS Growth-51.66%
CountryUS
Employees64,616
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.66
Shares Outstanding4,539,008,000
10 Day Avg. Volume23,096,596
30 Day Avg. Volume23,562,021
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)1.65
Price to Sales (P/S)1.45
P/FCF Ratio18.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.03
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.13
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.32Price Target Upside3.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$41.66B
Vale SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating globally and within Brazil, Vale S.A. is a major producer and seller of essential raw materials, including iron ore, iron ore pellets, nickel, and copper. Its operations are organized into two primary segments. The Iron Solutions segment...
How the Company Makes Money
Vale primarily makes money by extracting, processing, and selling mineral products, with revenue largely driven by (1) iron ore fines and (2) iron ore pellets sold to steel producers and traders. Pricing and realized revenue are mainly influenced ...
Vale SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed broadly positive operational and financial momentum: strong pro forma EBITDA growth (+21% YoY), VBM materially unlocking value (VBM EBITDA > doubled to $1.2B; copper 102 kt, +13% YoY; nickel +12% YoY), robust free cash flow (+61% YoY) and meaningful commercial/pricing gains (premiums +$2.6/ton QoQ, ~ $800M annualized). Management acknowledged cost pressures—C1 up 12% YoY, all-in costs up 8%—and macro/logistics risks (FX, oil, geopolitical events, distribution/royalty uncertainties) that temper near-term visibility and make delivery of guidance conditional on market curves. On balance, operational execution, cash generation and strategic initiatives (decarbonization, VBM optionality) outweigh the headwinds, though company performance remains sensitive to external price, FX and logistics dynamics.Positive Updates
Strong Pro Forma EBITDA Growth
Pro forma EBITDA of $3.9 billion in Q1 2026, up 21% year-on-year, driven by higher volumes and improved price realization across iron ore, copper and nickel.
Negative Updates
Rising C1 Cash Costs for Iron Ore
C1 cash cost excluding third-party purchases was $23.6/ton in Q1, up 12% YoY. Management attributed the increase mainly to BRL appreciation and consumption of higher-cost inventories from prior quarters.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Pro Forma EBITDA Growth
Pro forma EBITDA of $3.9 billion in Q1 2026, up 21% year-on-year, driven by higher volumes and improved price realization across iron ore, copper and nickel.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated its guidance that, assuming market consensus FX of BRL 5.25 and oil at $90/bbl, Vale is targeting the top end of its FY C1 cost guidance (market commentary earlier referenced a ~$21/t target), noting Q1 C1 was $23.6/t (up 12% YoY) and all‑in cash cost rose ~8% YoY; pro forma EBITDA was $3.9bn (+21% YoY) with iron ore EBITDA $2.9bn and Vale Base Metals (VBM) EBITDA $1.2bn, VBM Q1 copper production 102kt (+13% YoY) and nickel 49kt (Q1), recurring free cash flow $813m (+61% YoY), $2.7bn returned in dividends/IOCs and ~5m shares repurchased, expanded net debt $17.8bn (target $10–20bn, operate near midpoint), ~70% of 2026 bunker demand hedged above $80/bbl, commercial premiums up $2.6/t qoq (≈$800m annualized), Serra Sul +20 at 86% completion on track for H2 start‑up, and management expects continued VBM cost declines (copper all‑in ≈‑$600/t, down ~$1,800/t YoY; nickel all‑in $8,200/t, down 48% YoY).Vale SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 39.53B | 38.23B | 38.06B | 41.78B | 43.84B | 54.50B |
| Gross Profit | 13.65B | 13.14B | 13.79B | 17.70B | 19.81B | 32.77B |
| EBITDA | 9.90B | 9.37B | 11.07B | 15.56B | 23.74B | 34.13B |
| Net Income | 2.79B | 2.47B | 6.17B | 7.98B | 18.79B | 22.45B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 87.55B | 86.88B | 80.25B | 93.87B | 86.89B | 89.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.28B | 7.60B | 5.01B | 3.66B | 4.80B | 11.90B |
| Total Debt | 18.83B | 19.39B | 17.74B | 16.80B | 15.44B | 17.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 50.03B | 52.41B | 45.69B | 53.04B | 49.54B | 54.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 36.62B | 33.63B | 33.43B | 39.31B | 35.87B | 34.47B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.35B | 3.06B | 2.88B | 7.36B | 6.04B | 20.65B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.29B | 9.04B | 9.39B | 13.40B | 11.48B | 25.68B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.14B | -7.19B | -5.79B | -6.49B | -4.69B | -6.61B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.49B | 221.78M | -2.13B | -7.41B | -13.91B | -20.28B |
Vale SA Technical Analysis
Negative
17.78
Price Trends
16.04
Negative
16.10
Negative
14.28
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.31
Positive
40.88
Neutral
16.32
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.30, above the 50-day MA of 16.04, and above the 200-day MA of 14.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VALE.
Vale SA Risk Analysis
Vale SA disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vale SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vale SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $209.69B | 20.25 | 21.41% | 3.55% | 1.04% | -9.88% | |
69 Neutral | $162.74B | 15.35 | 16.59% | 4.60% | 7.59% | -13.66% | |
69 Neutral | $1.73B | 8.26 | 20.95% | 1.14% | 16.41% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.26B | 187.19 | 2.79% | ― | 6.42% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $62.44B | 21.99 | 7.68% | 10.04% | 4.64% | -51.66% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
51 Neutral | $9.49B | -126.39 | -3.49% | ― | 60.93% | 34.20% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
VALE
Vale SA
14.99
5.51
58.17%
BHP
BHP Group
83.33
34.83
71.83%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
29.95
7.70
34.61%
RIO
Rio Tinto
94.42
38.35
68.39%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
13.04
8.10
163.97%
MP
MP Materials
53.31
21.47
67.43%
Vale SA Corporate Events
Vale S.A. Files June 2026 Form 6-K with U.S. Securities Regulator
Jun 30, 2026
Vale S.A. filed a Form 6-K as a foreign private issuer with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of June 2026. The report, signed by Director of Investor Relations Thiago Lofiego on June 30, 2026, fulfills the company’s ...
Vale clarifies stance on Bamin, rail concessions and mini-mines partnerships
Jun 25, 2026
Vale S.A. on June 24, 2026, moved to clarify Brazilian media reports, stressing that its decisions follow strict governance rules and are made independently and in the company’s best interest. The miner said it regularly evaluates strategic ...
Vale Calls July Extraordinary Meeting to Vote on Board Shake-Up and Chair Election
Jun 23, 2026
Vale S.A. has called an Extraordinary General Meeting for July 22, 2026, to be held virtually, as part of an ongoing effort to enhance its governance and reinforce the skills, diversity and oversight capacity of its Board. The agenda includes a sh...
Vale Calls July 22 Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting After Previ Seeks Ouster of Board Chair
Jun 23, 2026
Vale’s board of directors met in an extraordinary session on June 19, 2026, in Rio de Janeiro to address a request from shareholder Previ, which holds 7.01% of the company’s share capital. The meeting reflected ongoing governance debat...
Vale Files Routine June 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
Jun 15, 2026
Vale S.A. has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for June 2026, providing its latest disclosures as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The document, largely composed of boilerplate re...
Vale Deepens ISSB-Aligned ESG Reporting and Bets on Circular Mining in 2025 Sustainability Report
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Vale released its 2025 Sustainability-Related Financial Information Report, voluntarily aligning for a second year with the International Sustainability Standards Board’s framework to detail financially material sustainabil...
Vale Receives Shareholder Request for Extraordinary Meeting to Reshuffle Board Leadership
Jun 12, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Vale reported that it had received a request from shareholder Caixa de Previdência dos Funcionários do Banco do Brasil – Previ to convene an Extraordinary General Meeting to vote on governance changes. Previ is se...
Vale Files June 2026 Form 6-K as Foreign Private Issuer
Jun 9, 2026
Vale S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2026, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed on June 9, 2026 by Director of Investor Relations Thiago Lofi...
Vale Lifts Long-Term EBITDA Share Target for Base Metals Unit to 28%
Jun 9, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Vale S.A. announced an update to its long-term indicative guidance for the contribution of its subsidiary, Vale Base Metals Ltd., to the group’s consolidated EBITDA, estimating that the base metals arm will account for appro...
Vale to Pay BRL 201 Million in Interest on 11th Issue Incentivized Debentures
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Vale S.A. announced it would pay remuneration interest on its 11th issuance of unsecured, non-convertible incentivized debentures, covering the 1st, 2nd and 3rd series. The payment, totaling BRL 201,021,910.48, will be made on May...
Vale Files May 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
May 12, 2026
Vale S.A., the Brazilian mining group, submitted a Form 6-K report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for May 2026 as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act. The filing confirms that Vale continues to report under F...
Vale Lifts 2026 Cash Flow Outlook on Iron Ore Rally and Details Nickel Sensitivities
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Vale updated its market estimates to reflect the impact of the recent conflict in the Middle East on its Iron Ore Solutions segment, projecting an additional US$1.5 billion in free cash flow for 2026 versus a pre-conflict scenario...
Vale Clarifies Report on Potential Interest in Porto Sudeste
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Vale S.A. responded to a press report claiming it was among potential buyers of Porto Sudeste, stating that assessments of such investment opportunities are part of its ordinary course of business and aligned with its strategic ...
Vale Shareholders Approve Subsidiary Mergers, Share Cancellation and Capital Increase at April 30 Meetings
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Vale held its Annual and Extraordinary General Meetings, where shareholders representing 82.1% of voting capital evaluated the 2025 management report and financial statements, approved profit allocation for the 2025 fiscal year,...
Vale Shareholders Approve 2025 Accounts, Subsidiary Mergers and Capital Changes at April 30 Meetings
Apr 30, 2026
At its combined annual and special shareholders’ meetings held digitally on April 30, 2026, Vale approved the 2025 management report and financial statements, along with the external audit opinion, confirming the company’s financial re...
Vale Files Routine April 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
Apr 29, 2026
Vale S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of April 2026, maintaining its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The filing, signed on April 29, 2026 b...
Vale Posts Higher Q1 2026 Profit as Revenues Rise and Payouts Trim Cash
Apr 29, 2026
Vale S.A. reported stronger results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, with net operating revenue rising to $9.26 billion from $8.12 billion a year earlier and gross profit increasing to $3.09 billion. Operating income climbed to $2.38 bil...
Vale Posts Higher Q1 2026 Profit on Strong Operations and Lower Taxes
Apr 29, 2026
Vale S.A. reported solid first-quarter 2026 results, with consolidated net operating revenue rising to R$48.68 billion from R$47.41 billion a year earlier, driven by stronger gross profit despite slightly higher costs. Net income attributable to s...
Vale Publishes Voting Maps Ahead of April 30, 2026 Shareholder Meetings
Apr 29, 2026
Vale S.A. disclosed on April 28, 2026 the consolidated synthetic remote voting maps for its Annual and Extraordinary General Meetings scheduled for April 30, 2026, covering instructions received via B3’s central depository, its share registr...
Vale Delivers Strong 1Q26 Results as Growth Projects and ESG Initiatives Advance
Apr 29, 2026
Vale reported a strong start to 2026 on April 28, posting first-quarter net operating revenue of $9.3 billion, up 14% year-on-year, and proforma EBITDA of $3.9 billion, up 21%, driven by higher iron ore, copper, and nickel sales and improved reali...
Vale Posts Strong 1Q26 Output Despite Oman Disruption
Apr 17, 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, Vale reported another period of robust operational performance, with several assets hitting record or near-record output despite adverse weather and some logistical challenges. Iron ore production rose 3% year-on-year...
Vale Advances Talks to Optimize Key Brazilian Railway Concessions
Apr 17, 2026
On April 16, 2026, Vale’s board authorized its executive committee to continue negotiations with Brazilian transport authorities to optimize the concession contracts for the Carajás Railway and the Vitória a Minas Railway. The comp...
Vale Posts Strong 2025 Results as Output Rises and ESG Overhaul Advances
Apr 15, 2026
In its 2025 Annual Report filed in April 2026, Vale reported net sales revenue of USD 38.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of USD 15.5 billion, and net income of USD 2.4 billion attributable to shareholders, a 26% increase versus 2024, supported by highe...
Vale to Pay Nearly R$200 Million in Interest on 10th Issue Incentive Debentures
Apr 14, 2026
Vale S.A. said in Rio de Janeiro on April 13, 2026, that it will pay interest on its 10th issue of simple, non-convertible, unsecured incentive debentures, series 1, 2 and 3, on April 15, 2026. The total interest remuneration amounts to R$199,987,...
Vale Sets April Schedule for First-Quarter 2026 Results
Apr 7, 2026
Vale S.A. has scheduled the release of its first-quarter 2026 operating and financial results, setting out a detailed timetable for investors. The company plans to publish its 1Q26 production and sales report on April 16, 2026, followed by its ful...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.