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Nexa Resources (NEXA)
NYSE:NEXA
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Nexa Resources SA (NEXA) AI Stock Analysis

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NEXA

Nexa Resources SA

(NYSE:NEXA)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$13.00
▼(-18.75% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score reflects a strong valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield) and a supportive earnings-call outlook (guidance reaffirmed, deleveraging progress, expectation of stronger 2026 FCF). Offsetting these positives are only mid-range financial quality due to leverage and uneven cash conversion, plus technicals that look more neutral/sideways in the near term.
Positive Factors
EBITDA and Margin Recovery
A sustained, >100% YoY EBITDA uplift and ~32% margin reflect durable operational improvement and pricing capture. Higher underlying profitability increases cash generation potential across cycles, supports reinvestment and deleveraging, and provides a buffer against commodity price volatility over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage Relative to Equity
Although leverage has fallen, debt remains material versus equity, limiting financial flexibility if commodity prices or margins weaken. Elevated gearing increases interest and covenant sensitivity, constraining discretionary investment and heightening refinancing risk during adverse market cycles over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
EBITDA and Margin Recovery
A sustained, >100% YoY EBITDA uplift and ~32% margin reflect durable operational improvement and pricing capture. Higher underlying profitability increases cash generation potential across cycles, supports reinvestment and deleveraging, and provides a buffer against commodity price volatility over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors

Nexa Resources SA (NEXA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nexa Resources SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Mining and Smelting. It produces metallic zinc, zamac, gold, sulfuric acid and zinc oxide, as we...
How the Company Makes Money
Nexa primarily makes money by producing and selling metals from its mining and processing operations. The main revenue stream is the sale of zinc and copper products (including concentrates and/or refined/base metal products, depending on the asse...

Nexa Resources SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operating and financial momentum: strong year‑over‑year EBITDA growth (+126%), significant byproduct and silver tailwinds, improved leverage (net leverage 1.59x), record production at Aripuana and Cerro Pasco Phase 1 progressing on schedule. These positives are tempered by near‑term headwinds: Q1 negative free cash flow from seasonality and tax payments, Peruvian operational disruptions that pressured sequential volumes, and structural smelter margin compression due to very low treatment charges. Management reiterated guidance, liquidity and deleveraging priorities and expects normalization of Peruvian output and continued operational improvements across smelters.
Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled year‑over‑year to $283 million (up ~126% YoY) with a margin of ~31.8%, driven by higher metal prices, stronger byproduct credits and improved operational execution.
Negative Updates
Peruvian Operational Disruptions
Heavy rainfall at Cerro Lindo, an illegal community blockade at Atacocha and a shaft constraint at El Porvenir led to sequential Peruvian production interruptions; these issues compressed mining sales volumes QoQ and required short‑term operational fixes.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong Profitability and EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled year‑over‑year to $283 million (up ~126% YoY) with a margin of ~31.8%, driven by higher metal prices, stronger byproduct credits and improved operational execution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: management reaffirmed 2026 CapEx of $381M (Q1 spend $72M, ~19% of guidance) and exploration/project evaluation at $86M (Q1 $16M), with Cerro Pasco Phase 1 FY spend guided at $31M (Q1 $8M), construction targeted to be completed in Q3 2026, full project finalization in Q4 2026 and pumping to start in 2Q‑2027 (MEIA approvals for El Porvenir and Atacocha expected 1Q‑2027). They expect the Q1 free cash flow shortfall (-$126M) to unwind seasonally and deliver strong FCF for 2026 after a -$283M working‑capital drag (operating cash flow before WC $308M; interest & taxes $81M), and reiterated a commitment to keep net leverage below 1.7x in 2026 (current 1.59x; LTM adjusted EBITDA $929M) with a longer‑term aspiration toward ~1.0x. Operational/cost guidance: mining cash cost net of byproducts was negative $0.76/lb (below guidance), cost per ROM $57/t; smelting cash cost net $1.40/lb (slightly above guidance) and conversion cost $0.34/lb (in line); annual benchmark TCs settled at $85/t. Near‑term operating and financial metrics tied to guidance include Q1 net revenues $888M (+42% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $283M (31.8% margin), net income $118M ($0.67/share); mining revenues $460M and adjusted EBITDA $231M (50% margin) with zinc production 79,000t (+18% YoY) and Aripuana at 13,000t (4th filter commissioning in Q2, full capacity in H2‑2026); smelting zinc metal/oxide sales 147,000t, revenues $609M and adjusted EBITDA $51M (8%); liquidity $716M including $320M undrawn RCF; average debt maturity 7.2 years and average cost of debt 6.27%.

Nexa Resources SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability has rebounded with higher revenue and improved margins versus 2025, but durability is tempered by past cyclical losses (2023–2024), still-elevated leverage (debt ~1.63x equity), and inconsistent cash conversion (TTM free cash flow ~28% of net income; prior FCF volatility).
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.24B2.99B2.77B2.57B3.03B2.62B
Gross Profit733.72M535.01M538.07M298.88M640.05M633.09M
EBITDA1.09B963.18M608.51M205.43M672.15M697.68M
Net Income210.08M132.63M-205.03M-291.97M49.70M114.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.28B5.27B4.64B4.84B4.89B4.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments395.96M521.56M640.23M468.32M515.89M763.02M
Total Debt1.86B1.83B1.86B1.73B1.67B1.72B
Total Liabilities3.83B3.99B3.58B3.38B3.18B3.26B
Stockholders Equity1.14B1.00B813.93M1.20B1.44B1.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow151.58M51.97M90.71M-57.04M-120.43M7.78M
Operating Cash Flow543.58M403.84M349.72M256.20M266.63M492.99M
Investing Cash Flow-365.88M-320.88M-237.61M-270.35M-378.93M-469.27M
Financing Cash Flow-201.58M-200.35M61.94M-34.64M-149.23M-344.13M

Nexa Resources SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.00
Price Trends
50DMA
14.06
Negative
100DMA
12.99
Positive
200DMA
10.48
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.30
Negative
RSI
50.93
Neutral
STOCH
53.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NEXA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.19, above the 50-day MA of 14.06, and above the 200-day MA of 10.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NEXA.

Nexa Resources SA Risk Analysis

Nexa Resources SA disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexa Resources SA reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nexa Resources SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
$1.70B8.5320.95%1.14%16.41%
67
Neutral
$1.22B172.162.79%6.42%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
50
Neutral
$989.88M-54.89-16.94%104.34%-1352.44%
48
Neutral
$620.38M-5.53-15.03%1.17%-11.77%-85.76%
45
Neutral
$679.89M-6.37-21.43%-265.11%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
13.46
8.44
168.13%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
29.03
6.59
29.37%
GSM
Ferroglobe
3.27
-1.18
-26.45%
UAMY
United States Antimony
6.62
3.96
148.87%
NB
NioCorp Developments
4.57
1.51
49.35%
CRML
Critical Metals Corp
8.47
5.43
178.62%

Nexa Resources SA Corporate Events

Nexa Resources Confirms Talks Linked to Boliden’s Interest in Potential Transaction
Jul 2, 2026
On July 2, 2026, Luxembourg-based Nexa Resources confirmed it is aware of ongoing negotiations between its significant shareholder Votorantim S.A. and Swedish miner Boliden AB regarding Votorantim’s interest in Nexa. The company said it expe...
Nexa Resources Investors Approve Capital Increase but Reject Limits on Pre-Emptive Rights at June 2026 Meetings
Jun 26, 2026
Nexa Resources S.A. reported the results of its Annual and Extraordinary General Meetings of shareholders held on June 25, 2026, in Luxembourg, where investors approved the 2025 annual accounts and consolidated financial statements, a share premiu...
Nexa Resources Shareholders Back Governance Resolutions and Approve US$17.5 Million Capital Return
Jun 25, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Nexa Resources S.A. held its Annual and Extraordinary General Meetings in Luxembourg, where 93,445,211 shares were represented, accounting for 70.56% of outstanding voting rights. Shareholders approved all Annual General Meeting ...
Nexa Resources Gradually Restarts Peru’s Cajamarquilla Smelter After May Incident
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Nexa Resources reported that operations at its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru are gradually resuming after an incident that occurred on May 13, 2026. Electrolysis lines are fully operational and one casting line is already pro...
Nexa Resources Calls June 25, 2026 AGM and EGM to Expand Authorized Capital and Renew Board Mandates
May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Nexa Resources S.A. filed a Form 6-K announcing that its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders and an Extraordinary General Meeting will be held on June 25, 2026, at the company’s registered office in Luxembourg. Shareholde...
Nexa Halts Cajamarquilla Zinc Smelter After May 13 Fire, Expects No Material Impact
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru after a fire incident earlier that day, which was contained following the activation of internal emergency teams. Personnel in affected area...
Nexa Resources Posts Strong Q1 2026 Profit Surge on Higher Revenues
May 6, 2026
Nexa Resources S.A. reported unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, showing a sharp improvement in profitability. Net revenues climbed to $888.3 million from $627.1 million a year earl...
Nexa Resources Delivers Strong 1Q 2026 Earnings and Eases Cerro Lindo Silver Streaming Burden
May 6, 2026
Nexa Resources posted a sharp rebound in performance for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, reporting net income of US$118 million, adjusted EBITDA of US$283 million and net revenues of US$888 million, up 42% year on year. Results were buoyed by su...
Nexa Resources Files 1Q 2026 CEO and CFO Certifications With SEC
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Nexa Resources S.A., a Luxembourg-based zinc-focused miner listed in the U.S. as a foreign private issuer, filed a Form 6-K for May 2026, confirming its status as a Form 20-F filer and detailing the execution of required interim ce...
Nexa Resources Releases 2025 Sustainability Report to Bolster ESG Transparency
Apr 24, 2026
Nexa Resources S.A., a Latin America-focused integrated polymetallic miner and zinc producer with long-life underground and open-pit operations in Peru and Brazil and major smelting facilities in Brazil and Peru, has positioned itself as a key low...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 20, 2026