Nexa Resources (NEXA)
NYSE:NEXA
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Nexa Resources SA
(NYSE:NEXA)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-3.13% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/16/26
The score is driven primarily by improving 2025 financial performance and a constructive earnings call with identifiable 2026 catalysts, but tempered by elevated leverage and inconsistent free cash flow conversion. Technicals support an uptrend, though overbought signals raise near-term pullback risk, while valuation appears relatively inexpensive on earnings.
Positive Factors
Mining operational strength
Nexa’s mining division delivers high-margin, large-scale zinc output that met guidance and generated strong mining EBITDA margins. Durable production scale and by-product credits support sustained cash generation and operational resilience across cycles, underpinning long-term earnings stability and funding for projects.
Negative Factors
Elevated overall leverage
Despite recent improvement, Nexa’s capital structure remains geared with debt materially exceeding shareholder equity. In a cyclical base‑metals industry, elevated leverage amplifies earnings volatility, constrains strategic flexibility in downturns, and raises the stakes for consistent cash generation to avoid refinancing stress or forced asset curtailments.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Mining operational strength
Nexa’s mining division delivers high-margin, large-scale zinc output that met guidance and generated strong mining EBITDA margins. Durable production scale and by-product credits support sustained cash generation and operational resilience across cycles, underpinning long-term earnings stability and funding for projects.
Read all positive factors
Nexa Resources SA (NEXA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.05B
Dividend Yield1.14%
Average Volume (3M)1.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth9.46%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,760
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.78
Shares Outstanding132,438,610
10 Day Avg. Volume2,020,862
30 Day Avg. Volume1,010,739
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.17
Price to Sales (P/S)0.39
P/FCF Ratio22.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.64
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.72
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.14Price Target Upside-24.11% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.35B
Nexa Resources SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business. The company also produces zinc, silver, gold, copper cement, lead, sulfuric acid, sulfur dioxide, copper sulfate, and limestone deposits. It own...
How the Company Makes Money
Nexa primarily makes money by producing and selling metals and metal products derived from its mining and processing operations. Its core revenue stream is the sale of zinc and copper, which may be sold as refined metal (e.g., zinc metal) and/or a...
Nexa Resources SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial momentum driven by strong Q4 results, solid full-year performance, mining segment strength, successful exploration, and clear near-term catalysts (Aripuanã ramp-up and silver stream step-down). These positives are tempered by a weak smelting segment, a full-year negative free cash flow driven by deliberate debt repayments and dividends, working capital drag, and some regulatory/political uncertainties. On balance, the operational wins, margin resilience in mining, improved leverage and liquidity, and upcoming catalysts outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Financial Performance
Net revenues of $903 million in Q4, up 18% sequentially and 22% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $300 million in Q4 (33% EBITDA margin); net income of $81 million ($0.38 per share); generated $51 million in free cash flow in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Smelting Segment Weakness
Smelting sales declined sequentially to 142,000 tons in Q4 due to lower Brazilian smelter production and softer zinc oxide demand; smelting Q4 adjusted EBITDA only $34 million and full-year smelting adjusted EBITDA $113 million (6% EBITDA margin), indicating margin pressure in the segment.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 Financial Performance
Net revenues of $903 million in Q4, up 18% sequentially and 22% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $300 million in Q4 (33% EBITDA margin); net income of $81 million ($0.38 per share); generated $51 million in free cash flow in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said 2025 guidance was met: consolidated zinc mining production of 316,000 t (Q4 91,000 t) and smelter metal sales of 567,000 t (Q4 142,000 t, in line with the midpoint); Q4 net revenues were $903M and adjusted EBITDA $300M (FY net revenues $3.0B and adjusted EBITDA $772M), Q4 net income $81M ($0.38/sh) and FY net income $223M ($1.00/sh). Key operational milestones and 2026 guidance include commissioning Aripuanã’s fourth tailings filter in H1 2026 and reaching full plant capacity in H2 2026, advancing Cerro Pasco Phase 1 with ~$42M spent in 2025 and similar CapEx expected in 2026 (Phase 2 studies ongoing, potential >15‑year life extension), and continued exploration (2025 spend $78M). Cost and cash metrics highlighted: mining cash cost net of by‑products Q4 -$0.58/lb and FY -$0.30/lb, ROM cost $56/t (Q4), smelter cash cost Q4 $1.41/lb and FY $1.28/lb (conversion $0.34/lb), FY CapEx $352M (Q4 $125M), operating cash flow before WC $846M, FY free cash flow -$105M (Q4 +$51M), net debt reduced by $96M, net leverage improved to 1.7x, total liquidity $842M (incl. $320M undrawn RCF), average debt maturity 7.6 years and average cost of debt 6.49%. They reiterated priorities to deleverage and preserve liquidity, noted zinc market support into H1 2026 and that the Cerro Lindo silver stream steps down from 65% to 25% in Q2 2026 (company produces ~11Moz Ag/yr; hedges have a silver floor/cap of ~$52/$84).Nexa Resources SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
49
Neutral
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.99B | 2.77B | 2.57B | 3.03B | 2.62B |
| Gross Profit | 535.01M | 538.07M | 298.88M | 640.05M | 633.09M |
| EBITDA | 766.51M | 608.51M | 205.43M | 672.15M | 697.68M |
| Net Income | 132.63M | -205.03M | -291.97M | 49.70M | 114.33M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.27B | 4.64B | 4.84B | 4.89B | 4.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 521.56M | 640.23M | 468.32M | 515.89M | 763.02M |
| Total Debt | 1.83B | 1.86B | 1.73B | 1.67B | 1.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.99B | 3.58B | 3.38B | 3.18B | 3.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.00B | 813.93M | 1.20B | 1.44B | 1.39B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 51.97M | 90.71M | -57.04M | -120.43M | 7.78M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 403.84M | 349.72M | 256.20M | 266.63M | 492.99M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -320.88M | -237.61M | -270.35M | -378.93M | -469.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -200.35M | 61.94M | -34.64M | -149.23M | -344.13M |
Nexa Resources SA Technical Analysis
Positive
16.00
Price Trends
11.59
Positive
10.62
Positive
7.89
Positive
Market Momentum
0.89
Negative
79.50
Negative
87.12
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NEXA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.34, above the 50-day MA of 11.59, and above the 200-day MA of 7.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.50 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NEXA.
Nexa Resources SA Risk Analysis
Nexa Resources SA disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexa Resources SA reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nexa Resources SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $2.05B | 8.84 | 14.19% | 1.14% | 9.46% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $1.10B | 11.11 | -15.33% | ― | 23.08% | 75.55% | |
58 Neutral | $1.74B | -143.02 | -6.14% | ― | 162.80% | -115.63% | |
50 Neutral | $880.11M | -5.12 | -22.22% | 1.17% | -18.79% | -3530.57% | |
48 Neutral | $879.19M | -248.46 | -44.72% | ― | ― | -336.94% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
15.50
10.26
195.80%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
26.26
12.66
93.09%
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.71
1.27
37.08%
UAMY
United States Antimony
12.15
8.74
256.30%
NB
NioCorp Developments
6.05
3.55
142.00%
CRML
Critical Metals Corp
12.44
10.64
591.11%
Nexa Resources SA Corporate Events
Nexa Resources Swings to 2025 Profit as Revenues Rise and Impairments Reverse
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Nexa Resources S.A. filed its Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025. The filing, signed by Senior Vice President of Financ...
Nexa Resources Posts Strong 4Q25 and FY2025 Results With Higher Earnings and Zinc Output
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Nexa Resources reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting record quarterly performance supported by higher zinc and by-product prices, stronger production at key mines, and disciplined cost control. ...
Nexa Resources Resumes Atacocha Mine Operations After Community Protests End
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Luxembourg-based Nexa Resources said operations at its Atacocha San Gerardo open-pit zinc mine in Peru began gradually resuming on February 16, 2026, after protests by the local Joraonivoc community ended and road access was ...
Nexa Resources Posts Strong 2025 Exploration Results, Signals Mine Life Extensions Across Core Operations
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Nexa Resources reported drilling and assay results for the second half and full year 2025, highlighting positive exploration outcomes across its key Latin American operations. The company completed 274,889 meters of drilling ...
Nexa Resources Hits 2025 Operational and Cost Targets, Sets 2026–2028 Outlook
Feb 6, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Nexa Resources reported preliminary operational results for the three- and twelve-month periods ended December 31, 2025, confirming that it met its 2025 consolidated production, sales and cost guidance and outlining its produc...
Nexa Resources Temporarily Halts Atacocha Mine After Community Road Blockade
Jan 21, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Nexa Resources announced that it has temporarily suspended production at its Atacocha San Gerardo open-pit mine in Peru after the Joraoniyoc community illegally blocked road access to the site as part of protest activities. Wh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.