Nexa Resources (NEXA)
NYSE:NEXA
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Nexa Resources SA
(NYSE:NEXA)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-3.13% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score reflects a strong valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield) and a supportive earnings-call outlook (guidance reaffirmed, deleveraging progress, expectation of stronger 2026 FCF). Offsetting these positives are only mid-range financial quality due to leverage and uneven cash conversion, plus technicals that look more neutral/sideways in the near term.
Positive Factors
Profitability rebound & EBITDA growth
Sustained margin recovery and a material EBITDA uplift reflect stronger pricing and byproduct contribution, creating a more resilient earnings base. Higher operating profitability supports cash generation, deleveraging and reinvestment capacity across commodity cycles, improving long‑term financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and uneven cash conversion
Despite improvement, leverage remains elevated and cash conversion is inconsistent: TTM FCF is ~28% of net income and prior years showed negative FCF. Persistent working‑capital swings and capital intensity limit flexibility and raise sensitivity to commodity or operational setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability rebound & EBITDA growth
Sustained margin recovery and a material EBITDA uplift reflect stronger pricing and byproduct contribution, creating a more resilient earnings base. Higher operating profitability supports cash generation, deleveraging and reinvestment capacity across commodity cycles, improving long‑term financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Nexa Resources SA (NEXA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.92B
Dividend Yield1.14%
Average Volume (3M)1.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.9
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth9.46%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,760
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.58
Shares Outstanding132,438,610
10 Day Avg. Volume1,252,308
30 Day Avg. Volume1,744,218
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.17
Price to Sales (P/S)0.39
P/FCF Ratio22.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.77
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.09
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.21Price Target Upside-23.66% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.47B
Nexa Resources SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business. The company also produces zinc, silver, gold, copper cement, lead, sulfuric acid, sulfur dioxide, copper sulfate, and limestone deposits. It own...
How the Company Makes Money
Nexa primarily makes money by producing and selling metals and metal products derived from its mining and processing operations. Its core revenue stream is the sale of zinc and copper, which may be sold as refined metal (e.g., zinc metal) and/or a...
Nexa Resources SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operating and financial momentum: strong year‑over‑year EBITDA growth (+126%), significant byproduct and silver tailwinds, improved leverage (net leverage 1.59x), record production at Aripuana and Cerro Pasco Phase 1 progressing on schedule. These positives are tempered by near‑term headwinds: Q1 negative free cash flow from seasonality and tax payments, Peruvian operational disruptions that pressured sequential volumes, and structural smelter margin compression due to very low treatment charges. Management reiterated guidance, liquidity and deleveraging priorities and expects normalization of Peruvian output and continued operational improvements across smelters.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled year‑over‑year to $283 million (up ~126% YoY) with a margin of ~31.8%, driven by higher metal prices, stronger byproduct credits and improved operational execution.
Negative Updates
Peruvian Operational Disruptions
Heavy rainfall at Cerro Lindo, an illegal community blockade at Atacocha and a shaft constraint at El Porvenir led to sequential Peruvian production interruptions; these issues compressed mining sales volumes QoQ and required short‑term operational fixes.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability and EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled year‑over‑year to $283 million (up ~126% YoY) with a margin of ~31.8%, driven by higher metal prices, stronger byproduct credits and improved operational execution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: management reaffirmed 2026 CapEx of $381M (Q1 spend $72M, ~19% of guidance) and exploration/project evaluation at $86M (Q1 $16M), with Cerro Pasco Phase 1 FY spend guided at $31M (Q1 $8M), construction targeted to be completed in Q3 2026, full project finalization in Q4 2026 and pumping to start in 2Q‑2027 (MEIA approvals for El Porvenir and Atacocha expected 1Q‑2027). They expect the Q1 free cash flow shortfall (-$126M) to unwind seasonally and deliver strong FCF for 2026 after a -$283M working‑capital drag (operating cash flow before WC $308M; interest & taxes $81M), and reiterated a commitment to keep net leverage below 1.7x in 2026 (current 1.59x; LTM adjusted EBITDA $929M) with a longer‑term aspiration toward ~1.0x. Operational/cost guidance: mining cash cost net of byproducts was negative $0.76/lb (below guidance), cost per ROM $57/t; smelting cash cost net $1.40/lb (slightly above guidance) and conversion cost $0.34/lb (in line); annual benchmark TCs settled at $85/t. Near‑term operating and financial metrics tied to guidance include Q1 net revenues $888M (+42% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $283M (31.8% margin), net income $118M ($0.67/share); mining revenues $460M and adjusted EBITDA $231M (50% margin) with zinc production 79,000t (+18% YoY) and Aripuana at 13,000t (4th filter commissioning in Q2, full capacity in H2‑2026); smelting zinc metal/oxide sales 147,000t, revenues $609M and adjusted EBITDA $51M (8%); liquidity $716M including $320M undrawn RCF; average debt maturity 7.2 years and average cost of debt 6.27%.Nexa Resources SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.24B | 2.99B | 2.77B | 2.57B | 3.03B | 2.62B |
| Gross Profit | 733.72M | 535.01M | 538.07M | 298.88M | 640.05M | 633.09M |
| EBITDA | 1.10B | 766.51M | 608.51M | 205.43M | 672.15M | 697.68M |
| Net Income | 210.08M | 132.63M | -205.03M | -291.97M | 49.70M | 114.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.28B | 5.27B | 4.64B | 4.84B | 4.89B | 4.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 395.96M | 521.56M | 640.23M | 468.32M | 515.89M | 763.02M |
| Total Debt | 1.86B | 1.83B | 1.86B | 1.73B | 1.67B | 1.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.83B | 3.99B | 3.58B | 3.38B | 3.18B | 3.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.14B | 1.00B | 813.93M | 1.20B | 1.44B | 1.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 151.58M | 51.97M | 90.71M | -57.04M | -120.43M | 7.78M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 543.58M | 403.84M | 349.72M | 256.20M | 266.63M | 492.99M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -365.88M | -320.88M | -237.61M | -270.35M | -378.93M | -469.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -201.58M | -200.35M | 61.94M | -34.64M | -149.23M | -344.13M |
Nexa Resources SA Technical Analysis
Positive
16.00
Price Trends
12.98
Positive
12.39
Positive
9.13
Positive
Market Momentum
0.24
Positive
51.78
Neutral
52.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NEXA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.69, above the 50-day MA of 12.98, and above the 200-day MA of 9.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NEXA.
Nexa Resources SA Risk Analysis
Nexa Resources SA disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexa Resources SA reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nexa Resources SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $1.92B | 3.93 | 20.95% | 1.14% | 9.46% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.28B | 19.35 | 2.79% | ― | 6.42% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
53 Neutral | $1.25B | -27.36 | -16.94% | ― | 104.34% | -1352.44% | |
48 Neutral | $801.63M | -27.50 | -15.03% | 1.17% | -11.77% | -85.76% | |
46 Neutral | $786.17M | 220.17 | -21.43% | ― | ― | -265.11% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
14.47
9.55
194.34%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
30.59
11.40
59.41%
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.29
0.51
13.61%
UAMY
United States Antimony
8.42
5.85
227.63%
NB
NioCorp Developments
5.40
2.93
118.62%
CRML
Critical Metals Corp
10.98
9.48
632.00%
Nexa Resources SA Corporate Events
Nexa Resources Calls June 25, 2026 AGM and EGM to Expand Authorized Capital and Renew Board Mandates
May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Nexa Resources S.A. filed a Form 6-K announcing that its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders and an Extraordinary General Meeting will be held on June 25, 2026, at the company’s registered office in Luxembourg. Shareholde...
Nexa Halts Cajamarquilla Zinc Smelter After May 13 Fire, Expects No Material Impact
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru after a fire incident earlier that day, which was contained following the activation of internal emergency teams. Personnel in affected area...
Nexa Resources Posts Strong Q1 2026 Profit Surge on Higher Revenues
May 6, 2026
Nexa Resources S.A. reported unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, showing a sharp improvement in profitability. Net revenues climbed to $888.3 million from $627.1 million a year earl...
Nexa Resources Delivers Strong 1Q 2026 Earnings and Eases Cerro Lindo Silver Streaming Burden
May 6, 2026
Nexa Resources posted a sharp rebound in performance for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, reporting net income of US$118 million, adjusted EBITDA of US$283 million and net revenues of US$888 million, up 42% year on year. Results were buoyed by su...
Nexa Resources Files 1Q 2026 CEO and CFO Certifications With SEC
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Nexa Resources S.A., a Luxembourg-based zinc-focused miner listed in the U.S. as a foreign private issuer, filed a Form 6-K for May 2026, confirming its status as a Form 20-F filer and detailing the execution of required interim ce...
Nexa Resources Releases 2025 Sustainability Report to Bolster ESG Transparency
Apr 24, 2026
Nexa Resources S.A., a Latin America-focused integrated polymetallic miner and zinc producer with long-life underground and open-pit operations in Peru and Brazil and major smelting facilities in Brazil and Peru, has positioned itself as a key low...
Nexa Resources Swings to 2025 Profit as Revenues Rise and Impairments Reverse
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Nexa Resources S.A. filed its Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025. The filing, signed by Senior Vice President of Financ...
Nexa Resources Posts Strong 4Q25 and FY2025 Results With Higher Earnings and Zinc Output
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Nexa Resources reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting record quarterly performance supported by higher zinc and by-product prices, stronger production at key mines, and disciplined cost control. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.