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Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)
NASDAQ:GSM

Ferroglobe (GSM) AI Stock Analysis

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Ferroglobe

(NASDAQ:GSM)

Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲( 5.26% Upside)
Ferroglobe's overall stock score reflects significant financial performance challenges, particularly in declining revenues and profitability. Technical analysis shows short-term positive momentum but long-term caution. Valuation remains problematic with ongoing losses. The earnings call provides a balanced view with some optimism for recovery, but current market conditions are difficult.

Ferroglobe (GSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ferroglobe Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFerroglobe PLC operates in the silicon and specialty metals industry in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It provides silicone chemicals that are used in a range of applications, including personal care items, construction-related products, health care products, and electronics, as well as silicon metal for primary and secondary aluminum producers; silicomanganese, which is used as deoxidizing agent in the steel manufacturing process; and ferromanganese that is used as a deoxidizing, desulphurizing, and degassing agent in the removal of nitrogen and other harmful elements from steel. The company also offers ferrosilicon products that are used to produce stainless steel, carbon steel, and various other steel alloys, as well as to manufacture electrodes and aluminum; calcium silicon, which is used in the deoxidation and desulfurization of liquid steel, and production of coatings for cast iron pipes, as well as in the welding process of powder metal and in pyrotechnics; and nodularizers and inoculants, which are used in the production of iron. In addition, it provides silica fume, a by-product of the electrometallurgical process of silicon metal and ferrosilicon. Further, the company operates quartz mines in Spain, South Africa, the United States, and Canada; and low-ash metallurgical coal mines in the United States, as well as holds interests in hydroelectric power plant in France. It serves silicone chemical, aluminum, and steel manufacturers; auto companies and their suppliers; ductile iron foundries; manufacturers of photovoltaic solar cells and computer chips; and concrete producers. The company was formerly known as VeloNewco Limited and changed its name to Ferroglobe PLC in December 2015. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. Ferroglobe PLC is a subsidiary of Grupo Villar Mir, S.A.U.
How the Company Makes MoneyFerroglobe makes money by manufacturing and selling silicon metal, silicon-based alloys, and manganese-based alloys. The company generates revenue through long-term supply contracts and spot sales to a diverse customer base across different industries, including automotive, chemical, and solar energy. Key revenue streams include the sale of silicon metal, used in aluminum alloy production and the chemical industry, and manganese-based alloys, essential for steel production. Ferroglobe's earnings are influenced by factors such as commodity prices, production efficiencies, and strategic partnerships with suppliers and customers that help stabilize supply chains and optimize production costs.

Ferroglobe Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ferroglobe is facing financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability issues evident in the income statement. The balance sheet indicates moderate leverage, but shareholder equity has decreased, suggesting potential financial instability. Cash flow remains positive, but the declining free cash flow growth is concerning. Overall, strategic realignment is needed to improve profitability and stabilize financial health.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Ferroglobe's income statement shows declining revenue and profitability. The TTM period reveals a negative EBIT and net income, indicating operational challenges. The gross profit margin has decreased over recent periods, and there is significant volatility in net profit margins. Notably, revenue growth has been negative, highlighting a potential decline in market demand or competitive challenges.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet presents a mixed picture with a reasonable equity ratio and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a moderate leverage level. However, the decline in stockholders' equity suggests erosion of shareholder value. The return on equity has turned negative in the latest TTM period, reflecting profitability challenges.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a positive operating cash flow, which is a good indicator of liquidity. However, the free cash flow growth rate has declined, raising concerns about future cash generation potential. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, but the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates challenges in converting profits into cash.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.56B1.64B1.65B2.60B1.78B1.14B
Gross Profit
478.77M616.81M770.75M1.24B496.68M247.41M
EBIT
-38.36M38.18M196.94M686.65M40.36M-74.17M
EBITDA
61.17M134.46M268.34M734.38M128.58M-47.26M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-59.22M23.54M82.66M440.31M-100.33M-188.67M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
137.84M138.54M136.47M317.94M114.50M103.72M
Total Assets
1.54B1.47B1.76B1.98B1.53B1.39B
Total Debt
118.95M198.82M302.19M443.15M557.62M504.55M
Net Debt
-10.33M65.85M165.72M125.21M443.23M401.83M
Total Liabilities
759.93M638.20M888.88M1.21B1.19B970.78M
Stockholders Equity
666.83M720.51M748.06M771.14M335.07M421.06M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
135.82M167.09M91.91M351.72M-28.94M121.36M
Operating Cash Flow
210.24M243.26M178.37M405.02M-1.34M154.27M
Investing Cash Flow
-72.45M-66.94M-81.81M-61.68M-23.85M-31.94M
Financing Cash Flow
-22.06M-175.51M-282.15M-140.46M10.45M-113.33M

Ferroglobe Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.80
Price Trends
50DMA
3.66
Positive
100DMA
3.75
Positive
200DMA
4.03
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.08
Negative
RSI
55.21
Neutral
STOCH
66.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.69, above the 50-day MA of 3.66, and below the 200-day MA of 4.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GSM.

Ferroglobe Risk Analysis

Ferroglobe disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ferroglobe reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
If we fail to maintain an effective system of internal control over financial reporting, we may not be able to accurately report our financial results or prevent fraud. As a result, shareholders could lose confidence in our financial and other public reporting, which would harm our business and the trading price of our ordinary shares. Q4, 2023
2.
The Company may be restricted or unable to pay cash dividends in the future. Q4, 2023
3.
Changes in laws, rules or regulations relating to data privacy and security, or any actual or perceived failure by us to comply with such laws, rules, regulations and standards, or contractual or other obligations relating to data privacy and security, could result in claims, changes to our business practices, penalties, increased cost of operations and could have a material adverse effect on our reputation, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows. Q4, 2023

Ferroglobe Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
58
Neutral
$721.79M-16.64%12.30%42.72%
GSGSM
55
Neutral
$714.78M27.86-7.29%1.38%-4.98%-192.96%
54
Neutral
$308.96M-4.38%105.14%84.95%
CMCMP
53
Neutral
$801.20M-46.32%1.61%5.81%-78.45%
50
Neutral
$2.00B-1.02-21.34%3.70%2.00%-30.65%
TMTMC
42
Neutral
$1.66B-667.42%-3.49%
LZLZM
38
Underperform
$272.96M-814.96%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GSM
Ferroglobe
3.80
-2.18
-36.45%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
19.16
6.15
47.27%
UAMY
United States Antimony
2.50
2.23
825.93%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
5.48
-2.29
-29.47%
TMC
TMC the metals company Inc.
4.39
2.94
202.76%
LZM
Lifezone Metals
3.15
-4.40
-58.28%

Ferroglobe Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.44%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Ferroglobe's earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While the company maintained a strong balance sheet and highlighted positive impacts from expected trade measures and operational efficiencies, significant challenges were reported in the silicon metal segment, including volume and price declines. The sentiment is balanced with optimism for future improvements due to regulatory measures.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Balance Sheet
Ferroglobe maintained a strong balance sheet with a positive net cash position of $19 million at the end of the first quarter, demonstrating resilience in a challenging market environment.
Positive Impact of Trade Measures
Several regulatory trade measures are expected to stabilize the market and create a more constructive environment, which should benefit Ferroglobe as the largest producer with operations that are nearly 100% backwards integrated.
Silicon-Based Alloys Revenue Increase
Silicon-based alloys revenue increased by 7% in the first quarter, driven by a 9% increase in volume.
Operational Efficiency and Free Cash Flow Generation
Despite challenging market conditions, Ferroglobe generated $5 million of free cash flow by efficiently managing working capital.
Positive Trends in Silicon Beta and Manganese Segments
The silicon beta market showed positive trends with a 9% increase in volume, and the manganese segment continued to show solid demand.
Negative Updates
Significant Decline in Silicon Metal Segment
The silicon metal segment experienced a 27% drop in volume, leading to negative adjusted EBITDA of $27 million for the first quarter.
Revenue and Price Declines
Revenue decreased by 16% in the first quarter, with a 35% decrease in silicon metal revenue and an 11% drop in silicon metal average selling prices.
Increased Costs and Negative EBITDA Margin
Raw material costs increased as a percentage of sales, and the company reported an adjusted EBITDA margin of negative 9% for the first quarter.
Impact of Low-Price Imports
Increased imports from countries like Brazil, Australia, Malaysia, Norway, and Thailand negatively impacted volumes and pricing.
Company Guidance
During Ferroglobe's first quarter 2025 earnings call, management provided guidance amidst challenging market conditions, with a noted 27% drop in silicon metal volumes and a 9% decline in the US silicon metal index pricing from the previous quarter. Despite this, Ferroglobe is optimistic about a recovery, anticipating positive adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter and maintaining their full-year guidance of $100 million to $170 million in adjusted EBITDA. The company highlighted several trade measures, including substantial anti-dumping duties ranging up to 1,042% for countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan, which are expected to stabilize the market. Additionally, Ferroglobe emphasized their strong balance sheet, positive net cash position of $19 million, and strategic investments, alongside a modest 8% dividend increase and ongoing share repurchases. They generated $5 million in free cash flow, driven by a $25 million reduction in working capital, and plan to fully implement their sales and operational planning (S&OP) by the end of 2025 to further enhance their operational efficiency.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.