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Ferroglobe
(NASDAQ:GSM)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(33.93% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
GSM scores mid-range primarily due to weak current-cycle financial performance (sharp TTM revenue/margin deterioration and negative free cash flow) despite a more manageable leverage profile. The latest earnings call points to improving near-term operations and cash flow plus potential tailwinds from trade actions, but ongoing pricing pressure and non-recurring supports temper confidence. Technically, the stock shows constructive short-term trend strength but is stretched on momentum indicators, while valuation signals are constrained by losses and only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improving Leverage / Balance Sheet Resilience
Improved debt-to-equity and steady asset base give Ferroglobe greater resilience through metal cycles, lowering refinancing risk and preserving optionality to fund strategic projects or weather weak pricing for several quarters without immediate balance-sheet distress.
Negative Factors
Severe Revenue and Profit Deterioration
A ~60% TTM revenue decline and negative operating profits indicate deep cyclical exposure. Loss of scale and compressed margins make fixed-cost absorption harder, prolong recovery timelines and increase the reliance on sustained commodity-price improvements to restore durable profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving Leverage / Balance Sheet Resilience
Improved debt-to-equity and steady asset base give Ferroglobe greater resilience through metal cycles, lowering refinancing risk and preserving optionality to fund strategic projects or weather weak pricing for several quarters without immediate balance-sheet distress.
Read all positive factors
Ferroglobe (GSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$818.45M
Dividend Yield1.32%
Average Volume (3M)1.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth-8.54%
EPS Growth61.49%
CountryUS
Employees2,920
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.22
Shares Outstanding186,860,520
10 Day Avg. Volume988,924
30 Day Avg. Volume1,639,885
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.26
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio-45.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.00Price Target Upside78.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.51B
Ferroglobe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ferroglobe PLC produces and sells silicon metal, and silicon and manganese-based alloys. It provides silicone metal that are used in a range of applications, including construction-related products, electronics, personal care items, and health car...
How the Company Makes Money
Ferroglobe makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling silicon- and manganese-based alloys and metals to industrial customers. Its core revenue streams come from (1) silicon-based products—such as ferrosilicon (used as a deoxidizer and allo...
Ferroglobe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The quarter showed clear operational and financial improvement: sequential growth in shipments and revenue, a meaningful rise in adjusted EBITDA and a swing to positive free cash flow, plus deleveraging and strategic progress on critical materials and trade protections. However, significant headwinds remain — persistent price pressure from low-cost imports (particularly from China and Angola), uneven effectiveness of EU safeguards, regional energy cost disadvantages in Europe, and some reliance on non-recurring benefits. The company has several actionable strategic opportunities (ferroalloys, magnesium, Venezuelan capacity optionality) that could be value-accretive if regulatory approvals and project economics hold, but execution and external market risks are meaningful.Positive Updates
Revenue and Shipments Growth
Total shipments increased 7% quarter-over-quarter to 188,000 tonnes and quarterly revenue rose 9% QoQ to $379 million; silicon metal shipments rose 34% QoQ (to 41,000 tonnes, +10,000 tonnes).
Negative Updates
Ongoing Pricing Pressure from Low-Cost Imports
Silicon metal average selling price fell 6% QoQ to $2,592/tonne; U.S. and EU silicon-based alloy indexes declined ~2% and ~6% QoQ respectively. Excess supply and low-priced imports from China and Angola continue to suppress prices.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Shipments Growth
Total shipments increased 7% quarter-over-quarter to 188,000 tonnes and quarterly revenue rose 9% QoQ to $379 million; silicon metal shipments rose 34% QoQ (to 41,000 tonnes, +10,000 tonnes).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that they expect initial commercial activity on the critical‑materials plan before year‑end, industrial‑scale tests of additional ferroalloys later this year, and a U.S. decision on the Venezuela restart permit (four low‑cost furnaces, 120,000 tpa) before the end of Q3; they highlighted market opportunities such as North American ferromolybdenum demand of ~8,000 tpa (~$42,000/ton → >$300M/year) and magnesium demand of ~60,000 tpa (~$7,500/ton → ~$450M/year), noting a 20,000‑tpa magnesium plant would cost ~$180–200M pre‑subsidy. Management expects H2 improvement from the finalized U.S. silicon case and potential EU antidumping action, stable manganese volumes (Q2 index +~10%, ~+25% since safeguards), continued working‑capital release (~$15M in H2), no immediate buybacks, Q2 CapEx of $17M as the year high, and near‑term benefits to pricing and demand if trade measures progress.Ferroglobe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.37B | 1.34B | 1.64B | 1.65B | 2.60B | 1.78B |
| Gross Profit | 91.59M | 45.99M | 541.35M | 697.22M | 1.23B | 496.68M |
| EBITDA | 5.67M | -68.92M | 127.99M | 263.08M | 725.48M | 33.74M |
| Net Income | -40.45M | -170.70M | 23.54M | 82.66M | 440.31M | -110.62M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.55B | 1.42B | 1.47B | 1.76B | 1.96B | 1.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 93.24M | 134.09M | 138.47M | 136.47M | 317.94M | 114.50M |
| Total Debt | 223.81M | 293.14M | 198.82M | 340.05M | 536.47M | 462.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 831.60M | 728.69M | 638.20M | 888.88M | 1.20B | 1.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 717.89M | 692.26M | 720.51M | 748.06M | 650.06M | 213.98M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -18.56M | -19.23M | 167.09M | 91.91M | 351.72M | -28.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 40.83M | 42.47M | 243.26M | 178.37M | 405.02M | -1.34M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -66.40M | -76.69M | -66.94M | -81.81M | -51.77M | -23.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.10M | 16.01M | -175.51M | -282.15M | -140.46M | 10.45M |
Ferroglobe Technical Analysis
Positive
3.36
Price Trends
3.64
Positive
3.95
Positive
4.29
Positive
Market Momentum
0.27
Negative
67.95
Neutral
79.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.75, below the 50-day MA of 3.64, and below the 200-day MA of 4.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GSM.
Ferroglobe Risk Analysis
Ferroglobe disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ferroglobe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
The Company may be restricted or unable to pay cash dividends in the future. Q4, 2023
2.
If we fail to maintain an effective system of internal control over financial reporting, we may not be able to accurately report our financial results or prevent fraud. As a result, shareholders could lose confidence in our financial and other public reporting, which would harm our business and the trading price of our ordinary shares. Q4, 2023
3.
Climate change, sustainability regulations and Company initiatives, including our environmental commitments associated with our decarbonization plan, could place additional burden on us and our operations. Q4, 2023
Ferroglobe Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.90B | 6.78 | 25.68% | 0.79% | 23.37% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $818.45M | -20.36 | -5.64% | 1.73% | -8.54% | 61.49% | |
59 Neutral | $1.10B | 59.93 | 7.13% | ― | 5.46% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $799.23M | -45.42 | -12.37% | ― | 35.89% | -1309.41% | |
45 Neutral | $745.41M | -7.12 | -21.43% | ― | ― | -265.11% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.39
0.24
5.78%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
26.37
7.35
38.64%
UAMY
United States Antimony
5.51
1.24
29.04%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
14.18
9.41
197.27%
NB
NioCorp Developments
5.11
0.76
17.47%
CRML
Critical Metals Corp
6.66
0.82
14.04%
Ferroglobe Corporate Events
Ferroglobe Delivers Strong Q2 2026 Recovery as It Pushes Critical Materials Strategy
Aug 4, 2026
Ferroglobe reported on August 4, 2026 that second-quarter 2026 sales reached $378.6 million, up 8.9% sequentially but slightly below the prior year, driven by stronger silicon metal and silicon-based alloy volumes in Europe and the U.S. Adjusted E...
Ferroglobe Shareholders Back All Resolutions at June 2026 AGM
Jun 18, 2026
Ferroglobe PLC reported that at its Annual General Meeting held on June 17, 2026, shareholders approved all resolutions by poll, including the receipt of the U.K. Annual Report and Accounts for the financial year ended December 31, 2024 and the di...
Ferroglobe Calls 2026 AGM, Publishes 2025 Annual Report
May 20, 2026
Ferroglobe PLC has released its notice of the 2026 Annual General Meeting and its Annual Report and Accounts for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, on May 19, 2026. The AGM is scheduled to take place at the company’s London offices on ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.