Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)
NASDAQ:GSM
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Ferroglobe
(NASDAQ:GSM)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-2.91% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is held back primarily by the 2025 financial downturn (losses, major margin compression, and negative free cash flow). Offsetting factors include a constructive 2026 outlook from the earnings call (growth guidance and supportive trade/energy developments) and moderately positive longer-term technical positioning, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings despite a modest dividend.
Positive Factors
Favorable trade measures
EU safeguards and U.S. antidumping measures are durable policy changes that reduce predatory imports and structurally improve pricing for ferrosilicon and manganese alloys. This creates a multi-year competitive tailwind, supporting margin recovery and steadier volumes across regions.
Negative Factors
High earnings cyclicality
The company exhibits pronounced cyclicality: a swing from healthy margins to a major loss in 2025 shows earnings are highly sensitive to commodity prices and end‑market demand. This undermines cash predictability and makes multi-quarter recoveries dependent on sustained market improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Favorable trade measures
EU safeguards and U.S. antidumping measures are durable policy changes that reduce predatory imports and structurally improve pricing for ferrosilicon and manganese alloys. This creates a multi-year competitive tailwind, supporting margin recovery and steadier volumes across regions.
Read all positive factors
Ferroglobe (GSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$768.90M
Dividend Yield1.17%
Average Volume (3M)1.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth-16.89%
EPS Growth-403.77%
CountryUS
Employees3,283
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.06
Shares Outstanding186,625,870
10 Day Avg. Volume1,638,513
30 Day Avg. Volume1,491,267
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.26
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio-45.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.00Price Target Upside45.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.63B
Ferroglobe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ferroglobe PLC operates in the silicon and specialty metals industry in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It provides silicone chemicals that are used in a range of applications, including personal care items, construction-related pr...
How the Company Makes Money
Ferroglobe makes money by producing and selling commodity and specialty ferroalloys and silicon products to industrial customers under a mix of contractual and spot-market arrangements, with revenue largely tied to shipment volumes and market pric...
Ferroglobe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic strategic outlook: 2025 operational and financial results were weak (sharp YoY EBITDA decline, negative free cash flow in Q4 and ongoing silicon metal headwinds), but management secured meaningful structural positives — EU safeguards and U.S. antidumping rulings, furnace conversions to higher‑value alloys, a long‑term French energy agreement, targeted share repurchases and dividend increases, and a clear 2026 revenue/growth guide (+~20% at midpoint). Strong momentum in silicon‑based alloys and manganese segments, along with working‑capital improvements and booked incremental business, provide a credible pathway to recovery in 2026. Overall, the strategic and regulatory wins materially improve the medium‑term outlook, even though near‑term profitability and silicon metal exposure remain key risks.Positive Updates
Trade Measures Secured in EU and U.S.
European Commission safeguards implemented (targeting a 25% reduction in imports vs. 2022-2024 baseline) and U.S. International Trade Commission rulings imposing antidumping and countervailing duties on ferrosilicon imports (Brazil, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and prior action vs. Russia) — these measures materially improve competitive conditions and long-term outlook for ferrosilicon and manganese alloys.
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Adjusted EBITDA and Margins
Adjusted EBITDA fell to $15 million in Q4 (down 20% QoQ from $18M) and full-year adjusted EBITDA was $28 million vs. $154 million in 2024 (an approximate 82% YoY decline); full-year adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 2%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Trade Measures Secured in EU and U.S.
European Commission safeguards implemented (targeting a 25% reduction in imports vs. 2022-2024 baseline) and U.S. International Trade Commission rulings imposing antidumping and countervailing duties on ferrosilicon imports (Brazil, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and prior action vs. Russia) — these measures materially improve competitive conditions and long-term outlook for ferrosilicon and manganese alloys.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 revenues of $1.5–$1.7 billion (about a 20% increase at the midpoint vs. 2025) and said most segments should post “considerable” growth driven by strong volume gains in silicon‑based and manganese‑based alloys; they pointed to Q4 shipments of 165,000 tons (up 13%), Q4 silicon‑based alloy volumes of 51,000 t (up 19%) and manganese volumes of 81,000 t (up 16%), and cited macro/end‑market tails of EU steel +3% and U.S. aluminum +8–9% in 2026. Management expects policy support to help pricing (EU ferrosilicon indexes jumped ~20–22% after safeguards; ferromanganese/silicomanganese +16%/+21% in Q4), with EU steel safeguards (50% import quota cuts and 50% excess tariffs effective July 1, 2026) and U.S. antidumping/countervailing rulings (final measures expected in Feb and June) underpinning the recovery; they also noted operational moves (3 furnaces converted to ferrosilicon), sustaining CapEx roughly in line with 2025 (~$63M), net debt near $30M, a 7% dividend increase to $0.15/share, ~1.2M shares repurchased (~$3.55 avg), and reminded investors 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $28M (down from $154M) with full‑year free cash flow ≈ −$12M.Ferroglobe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.34B | 1.64B | 1.65B | 2.60B | 1.78B |
| Gross Profit | 45.99M | 541.35M | 697.22M | 1.23B | 496.68M |
| EBITDA | -113.85M | 127.99M | 263.08M | 725.48M | 33.74M |
| Net Income | -170.70M | 23.54M | 82.66M | 440.31M | -110.62M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.42B | 1.47B | 1.76B | 1.96B | 1.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 134.09M | 138.47M | 136.47M | 317.94M | 114.50M |
| Total Debt | 293.14M | 198.82M | 340.05M | 536.47M | 462.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 728.69M | 638.20M | 888.88M | 1.20B | 1.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 692.26M | 720.51M | 748.06M | 650.06M | 213.98M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -19.23M | 167.09M | 91.91M | 351.72M | -28.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 42.47M | 243.26M | 178.37M | 405.02M | -1.34M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -76.69M | -66.94M | -81.81M | -51.77M | -23.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.01M | -175.51M | -282.15M | -140.46M | 10.45M |
Ferroglobe Technical Analysis
Negative
4.12
Price Trends
4.77
Negative
4.62
Negative
4.49
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Negative
40.92
Neutral
57.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.37, below the 50-day MA of 4.77, and below the 200-day MA of 4.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSM.
Ferroglobe Risk Analysis
Ferroglobe disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ferroglobe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
If we fail to maintain an effective system of internal control over financial reporting, we may not be able to accurately report our financial results or prevent fraud. As a result, shareholders could lose confidence in our financial and other public reporting, which would harm our business and the trading price of our ordinary shares. Q4, 2023
2.
The Company may be restricted or unable to pay cash dividends in the future. Q4, 2023
3.
Changes in laws, rules or regulations relating to data privacy and security, or any actual or perceived failure by us to comply with such laws, rules, regulations and standards, or contractual or other obligations relating to data privacy and security, could result in claims, changes to our business practices, penalties, increased cost of operations and could have a material adverse effect on our reputation, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows. Q4, 2023
Ferroglobe Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $977.51M | 11.11 | -15.33% | ― | 11.32% | 61.60% | |
58 Neutral | $1.40B | 8.84 | 14.19% | 1.14% | 7.92% | 91.83% | |
55 Neutral | $1.25B | -143.02 | -6.14% | ― | 240.12% | 0.98% | |
50 Neutral | $768.90M | -5.12 | -22.22% | 1.17% | -16.89% | -403.77% | |
47 Neutral | $648.13M | -248.46 | -44.72% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.12
0.43
11.71%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
23.35
14.04
150.81%
UAMY
United States Antimony
8.73
6.40
274.68%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
10.59
4.53
74.69%
NB
NioCorp Developments
4.46
2.43
119.70%
CRML
Critical Metals Corp
7.94
6.27
375.45%
Ferroglobe Corporate Events
Ferroglobe Posts Weaker 2025 Results but Sees 2026 Boost from Trade Actions and Energy Deal
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Ferroglobe reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of $329.4 million, up 5.7% quarter on quarter but down 10.4% year on year, with adjusted EBITDA of $14.6 million and a net loss of $81 million. For full-year 2025, sales fell 18.8...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.