Ferroglobe (GSM) AI Stock Analysis

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Ferroglobe

(NASDAQ:GSM)

Rating:50Neutral

Price Target:

$4.00

▼(-6.54% Downside)

Ferroglobe's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability, and negative cash flow growth. While there are some positive developments from the earnings call, such as increased revenue and adjusted EBITDA, these are counterbalanced by market uncertainties and declining silicon metal prices in Europe. The technical analysis suggests a neutral trend, and the valuation indicates potential undervaluation but is hampered by negative earnings.

Ferroglobe (GSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$780.10M

Dividend Yield1.26%

Average Volume (3M)1.26M

Price to Earnings (P/E)27.9

Beta (1Y)0.80

Revenue Growth-8.59%

EPS Growth-256.43%

CountryUS

Employees3,283

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength68

IndustryIndustrial Materials

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.08

Shares Outstanding186,625,870

10 Day Avg. Volume862,887

30 Day Avg. Volume1,259,283

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.51

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.15

Enterprise Value/Ebitda281.76

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$4.00

Price Target Upside-6.54% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

Ferroglobe Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFerroglobe (GSM) is a global leader in the production of silicon and silicon-based products, primarily serving the renewable energy, automotive, and electronics sectors. The company specializes in the manufacturing of silicon metal, ferrosilicon, and silicon-based alloys, which are essential components in various industrial applications. With a strong presence in North America and Europe, Ferroglobe is committed to sustainable practices and innovation in silicon production.

How the Company Makes MoneyFerroglobe generates revenue primarily through the sale of silicon metal and ferrosilicon products to various industries, including steel production, chemical manufacturing, and renewable energy. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major customers, spot market sales, and customized products tailored to specific industry needs. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with firms in the automotive and electronics sectors, which enhance its market reach and stability. Additionally, fluctuations in global silicon prices can significantly impact earnings, making market conditions a crucial factor in the company’s financial performance.

Ferroglobe Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of positive revenue and volume growth, improved EBITDA, and strategic shareholder moves. However, these were offset by significant challenges in the European market, price declines, and uncertainty leading to the withdrawal of 2025 guidance.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue and Volume Growth

Sales increased 26% in the second quarter to $387 million, with a 27% increase in volumes across all product categories.

Adjusted EBITDA Improvement

Adjusted EBITDA rebounded to a positive $22 million from a loss in the first quarter, with a margin of 6%.

Shareholder Returns

600,000 shares were purchased for $2 million and $2.6 million were paid in dividends in the second quarter.

Manganese Segment Performance

Manganese-based alloys posted a 43% revenue increase and adjusted EBITDA improved to a $17 million profit.

Joining Russell Indexes

Ferroglobe joined the Russell 2000 and 3000 indexes, increasing visibility among institutional investors.

Negative Updates

European Silicon Metal Price Decline

Silicon metal prices in Europe declined by approximately 20% in the past month due to low-priced imports from China.

Market Uncertainty

The company withdrew its 2025 guidance due to uncertainties around global trade policies and tariff structures.

Challenges in European Market

The EU 27 producers' market share dropped from 40% to approximately 15% due to increased imports from China.

Weak Demand in Silicon Metal

Q2 volumes were still impacted by weak demand and low-priced silicon metal imports from China into the EU.

Company Guidance

During Ferroglobe's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company announced the withdrawal of its 2025 guidance due to increasing uncertainty around global trade policies, tariffs, and market dynamics, particularly in Europe and the U.S. Despite these challenges, Ferroglobe reported a significant improvement in performance, with a 27% increase in volumes and a 26% increase in revenue, leading to a positive adjusted EBITDA of $22 million. Key developments included a decline in European silicon metal prices driven by increased Chinese imports, and the impact of U.S. antidumping and countervailing duties boosting domestic market dynamics. Ferroglobe's strategic focus on operational efficiency and cost control helped maintain a strong balance sheet and positive cash flow. The company also highlighted progress in trade negotiations and the potential positive impact of EU safeguard measures anticipated to take effect in 2026, which are expected to enhance market conditions.

Ferroglobe Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ferroglobe faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability, as well as negative growth in free cash flow. While leverage is manageable, the company struggles with operational inefficiencies and cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Neutral

Ferroglobe's income statement shows a decline in revenue and profitability. The TTM data indicates a negative net profit margin of -3.80% and a gross profit margin of 30.70%, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT margin is negative, indicating operational inefficiencies. Revenue growth has been negative, suggesting a contraction in sales.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18 in the TTM, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting poor profitability. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the relatively low debt levels suggest some financial stability.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow analysis shows a significant decline in free cash flow growth, down by 93.91% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, indicating limited cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.65, suggesting some cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.50B	1.64B	1.65B	2.60B	1.78B	1.14B
Gross Profit	355.16M	616.81M	770.75M	1.24B	496.68M	247.41M
EBITDA	2.71M	134.46M	268.34M	734.38M	128.58M	-47.26M
Net Income	-104.55M	23.54M	82.66M	440.31M	-100.33M	-188.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.66B	1.47B	1.76B	1.98B	1.53B	1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	148.08M	138.54M	136.47M	317.94M	114.50M	103.72M
Total Debt	220.04M	208.61M	302.19M	443.15M	557.62M	504.55M
Total Liabilities	848.25M	638.20M	888.88M	1.21B	1.19B	970.78M
Stockholders Equity	812.64M	720.51M	748.06M	771.14M	335.07M	421.06M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	8.28M	167.09M	91.91M	351.72M	-28.94M	121.36M
Operating Cash Flow	76.26M	243.26M	178.37M	405.02M	-1.34M	154.27M
Investing Cash Flow	-67.78M	-66.94M	-81.81M	-61.68M	-23.85M	-31.94M
Financing Cash Flow	-22.71M	-175.51M	-282.15M	-140.46M	10.45M	-113.33M

Ferroglobe Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price4.28

Price Trends

50DMA

4.26

Positive

100DMA

3.99

Positive

200DMA

3.94

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

>-0.01

Negative

RSI

52.73

Neutral

STOCH

40.74

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.19, above the 50-day MA of 4.26, and above the 200-day MA of 3.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GSM.

Ferroglobe Risk Analysis

Ferroglobe disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ferroglobe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

If we fail to maintain an effective system of internal control over financial reporting, we may not be able to accurately report our financial results or prevent fraud. As a result, shareholders could lose confidence in our financial and other public reporting, which would harm our business and the trading price of our ordinary shares. Q4, 2023

The Company may be restricted or unable to pay cash dividends in the future. Q4, 2023

Changes in laws, rules or regulations relating to data privacy and security, or any actual or perceived failure by us to comply with such laws, rules, regulations and standards, or contractual or other obligations relating to data privacy and security, could result in claims, changes to our business practices, penalties, increased cost of operations and could have a material adverse effect on our reputation, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows. Q4, 2023

Ferroglobe Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAMY	66 Neutral	$587.74M	―	-3.27%	―	178.66%	82.83%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$10.28B	6.21	0.76%	2.84%	3.10%	-36.03%
GSM	50 Neutral	$780.10M	27.86	-12.38%	1.26%	-8.59%	-256.43%
CMP	48 Neutral	$783.33M	―	-40.17%	1.61%	7.27%	27.35%
NEXA	48 Neutral	$643.65M	―	-9.63%	2.09%	8.66%	66.06%
LZM	44 Neutral	$332.30M	―	-814.96%	―	―	―
TMC	42 Neutral	$2.08B	―	-364.03%	―	―	-9.91%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GSM

Ferroglobe

4.28

0.15

3.63%

CMP

Compass Minerals International

18.81

10.60

129.11%

UAMY

United States Antimony

4.51

3.85

583.33%

NEXA

Nexa Resources SA

4.84

-1.06

-17.97%

TMC

TMC the metals company Inc.

5.12

4.19

450.54%

LZM

Lifezone Metals

4.60

-1.16

-20.14%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 13, 2025