Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)
NASDAQ:GSM
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Ferroglobe
(NASDAQ:GSM)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-10.71% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses and negative free cash flow) and a bearish technical setup (trading below major moving averages with soft momentum). The earnings call adds moderate support via H2 pricing recovery guidance tied to trade actions and improving volumes, but near-term profitability and cash flow headwinds remain material. Valuation is constrained by losses (negative P/E), with only modest support from the dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Manageable leverage and capital structure
Ferroglobe's improved debt-to-equity (~0.27 TTM) provides a durable financial cushion versus prior years, lowering near-term refinancing pressure and preserving optionality to fund working capital, modest capex and strategic investments while the company repairs profitability.
Negative Factors
Weak profitability and negative free cash flow
Persistent net losses and negative free cash flow constrain self‑funding capacity, increase reliance on external financing, and limit reinvestment. Over months, continued cash deficits can erode liquidity buffers, pressure dividends and capex plans, and heighten execution risk if market recovery stalls.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Manageable leverage and capital structure
Ferroglobe's improved debt-to-equity (~0.27 TTM) provides a durable financial cushion versus prior years, lowering near-term refinancing pressure and preserving optionality to fund working capital, modest capex and strategic investments while the company repairs profitability.
Read all positive factors
Ferroglobe (GSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$768.00M
Dividend Yield1.17%
Average Volume (3M)1.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-11.77%
EPS Growth-85.76%
CountryUS
Employees3,283
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.60
Shares Outstanding186,860,520
10 Day Avg. Volume1,289,624
30 Day Avg. Volume1,086,804
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.26
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio-45.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit24.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-9.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.00Price Target Upside33.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.61B
Ferroglobe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ferroglobe PLC operates in the silicon and specialty metals industry in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It provides silicone chemicals that are used in a range of applications, including personal care items, construction-related pr...
How the Company Makes Money
Ferroglobe makes money by producing and selling commodity and specialty ferroalloys and silicon products to industrial customers under a mix of contractual and spot-market arrangements, with revenue largely tied to shipment volumes and market pric...
Ferroglobe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of encouraging operational momentum (notably strong volume growth in silicon-based and manganese alloys, 6% revenue growth, strategic investments in Coreshell, and regulatory actions expected to support markets in H2) alongside clear near-term financial and market challenges (very low adjusted EBITDA, negative free cash flow, higher net debt, silicon metal revenue declines, and cost/ logistics inflation). Management emphasized structural opportunities and optionality to expand into critical materials, but also cautioned that pricing, regional import pressure, and short-term cost inflation will weigh on margins in Q2 before anticipated improvement in the second half of 2026.Positive Updates
Volume Growth Across Key Alloy Segments
Total shipments rose 7% sequentially to 177,000 tons. Silicon-based alloys volumes increased 18% to 61,000 tons (highest level since Q2 2021). Manganese-based volumes increased 6% to 86,000 tons.
Negative Updates
Weak Profitability and EBITDA Compression
Adjusted EBITDA declined to $3 million for the quarter (sequential decline), with silicon metal segment reporting an EBITDA loss of $2 million and a negative margin of ~-3%. Silicon-based alloys adjusted EBITDA declined by $9 million sequentially to $6 million with margins down ~9 percentage points to 6%.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Volume Growth Across Key Alloy Segments
Total shipments rose 7% sequentially to 177,000 tons. Silicon-based alloys volumes increased 18% to 61,000 tons (highest level since Q2 2021). Manganese-based volumes increased 6% to 86,000 tons.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that trade measures and safeguard actions should drive a stronger second half of 2026: U.S. antidumping/anti‑circumvention duties (Angola 78.5%, Laos 173.5% including the 10% general tariff) with DoC/ITC rulings due in June–July and EU safeguards (EU steel +12–15M t, ~10% growth effective July 1) are expected to support a pricing recovery. Q1 was transitional — shipments rose 7% to 177,000 t (silicon‑based alloys 61,000 t, +18% q/q and highest since Q2‑2021; manganese 86,000 t, +6% q/q; silicon metal ~31,000 t, -6% q/q), revenue was $348M (+6% q/q), adjusted EBITDA was $3M, free cash flow was -$16M, cash from operations -$6M (after a $13M working capital build), net debt rose to $55M, CapEx was roughly $11M, and raw material & energy costs were 66% of sales after a $5.5M PPA adjustment. Management expects near‑term cost pressure (surcharges of €30/t in Europe and $40/t in the U.S.; Q2 costs may tick up) but anticipates H2 improvement and is pursuing asset optionality (90,000 t of convertible FeSi furnaces, a 30,000 t Mn furnace, potential Venezuela restart) and strategic investments such as the $17M (~10%) Coreshell stake (Coreshell budgeted sales >$60M next year; potential ~70,000 t battery silicon metal by 2030–31).Ferroglobe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.38B | 1.34B | 1.64B | 1.65B | 2.60B | 1.78B |
| Gross Profit | 38.19M | 45.99M | 541.35M | 697.22M | 1.23B | 496.68M |
| EBITDA | -97.86M | -113.85M | 127.99M | 263.08M | 725.48M | 33.74M |
| Net Income | -111.27M | -170.70M | 23.54M | 82.66M | 440.31M | -110.62M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.52B | 1.42B | 1.47B | 1.76B | 1.96B | 1.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 96.40M | 134.09M | 138.47M | 136.47M | 317.94M | 114.50M |
| Total Debt | 239.99M | 293.14M | 198.82M | 340.05M | 536.47M | 462.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 850.63M | 728.69M | 638.20M | 888.88M | 1.20B | 1.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 670.46M | 692.26M | 720.51M | 748.06M | 650.06M | 213.98M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -38.87M | -19.23M | 167.09M | 91.91M | 351.72M | -28.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.42M | 42.47M | 243.26M | 178.37M | 405.02M | -1.34M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -70.61M | -76.69M | -66.94M | -81.81M | -51.77M | -23.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 13.49M | 16.01M | -175.51M | -282.15M | -140.46M | 10.45M |
Ferroglobe Technical Analysis
Positive
4.48
Price Trends
4.25
Positive
4.61
Negative
4.52
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
52.06
Neutral
69.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.27, above the 50-day MA of 4.25, and below the 200-day MA of 4.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GSM.
Ferroglobe Risk Analysis
Ferroglobe disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ferroglobe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
The Company may be restricted or unable to pay cash dividends in the future. Q4, 2023
2.
If we fail to maintain an effective system of internal control over financial reporting, we may not be able to accurately report our financial results or prevent fraud. As a result, shareholders could lose confidence in our financial and other public reporting, which would harm our business and the trading price of our ordinary shares. Q4, 2023
3.
Climate change, sustainability regulations and Company initiatives, including our environmental commitments associated with our decarbonization plan, could place additional burden on us and our operations. Q4, 2023
Ferroglobe Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $1.88B | 3.93 | 20.95% | 1.14% | 9.46% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.25B | 19.35 | 2.79% | ― | 6.42% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
53 Neutral | $1.22B | -27.36 | -16.94% | ― | 104.34% | -1352.44% | |
48 Neutral | $768.00M | -27.50 | -15.03% | 1.17% | -11.77% | -85.76% | |
46 Neutral | $774.52M | 220.17 | -21.43% | ― | ― | -265.11% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.29
0.51
13.61%
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Ferroglobe Corporate Events
Ferroglobe Posts Q1 2026 Loss but Rides Trade‑Driven Alloy Demand and Eyes Venezuelan Restart
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Ferroglobe reported first‑quarter 2026 sales of $347.7 million, up 5.6% quarter on quarter and 13.2% year on year, driven by higher silicon‑ and manganese‑based alloy volumes, but posted a $7.1 million net loss an...
Ferroglobe Posts Weaker 2025 Results but Sees 2026 Boost from Trade Actions and Energy Deal
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Ferroglobe reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of $329.4 million, up 5.7% quarter on quarter but down 10.4% year on year, with adjusted EBITDA of $14.6 million and a net loss of $81 million. For full-year 2025, sales fell 18.8...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.