TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC)
NASDAQ:TMC
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TMC the metals company Inc.
(NASDAQ:TMC)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(3.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
Overall score reflects very weak financial fundamentals (pre-revenue, large losses, cash burn, negative equity and higher leverage) as the primary drag. This is partially offset by a more constructive earnings update (regulatory milestone, Allseas partnership funding/operations plan, and improved near-term cash flow) and mildly positive technical momentum, while valuation remains constrained by ongoing losses and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
NOAA regulatory milestone
NOAA's full-compliance finding materially advances the U.S. permitting pathway, triggering Federal Register posting, public comment and EIS steps. This structural regulatory progress reduces a key barrier to commercial recovery, strengthening TMC's long-term ability to access U.S. markets for critical battery metals if approvals follow.
Negative Factors
Negative equity & rising debt
Negative equity combined with a sharp increase in debt reduces financial flexibility and increases solvency sensitivity for a pre-revenue developer. While project potential is large, the leveraged capital structure heightens refinancing and covenant risks and limits the company's ability to absorb execution or regulatory delays without dilutive financing.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
NOAA regulatory milestone
NOAA's full-compliance finding materially advances the U.S. permitting pathway, triggering Federal Register posting, public comment and EIS steps. This structural regulatory progress reduces a key barrier to commercial recovery, strengthening TMC's long-term ability to access U.S. markets for critical battery metals if approvals follow.
Read all positive factors
TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.24B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-243.05%
CountryUS
Employees47
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.90
Shares Outstanding433,221,130
10 Day Avg. Volume6,689,486
30 Day Avg. Volume5,328,533
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-70.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-55.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-12.70K
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.33Price Target Upside113.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
TMC the metals company Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TMC the metals company Inc., a deep-sea minerals exploration company, focuses on the collection, processing, and refining of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the south-west of San Diego, California...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
TMC the metals company Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights multiple major development milestones: a binding production agreement with Allseas (including partner funding), NOAA compliance of the consolidated application, a clear engineering and commissioning timeline (late 2027), robust economic studies (PFS/initial assessment NPVs and declared reserve), improving near-term cash flow metrics and strategic onshore processing plans. Offsetting these positives are persistent net losses, materially higher G&A and exploration expenses driven by share-based compensation, sizable payables to Allseas to be equity-settled (dilution risk), reliance on government support for large onshore capex, regulatory timing uncertainty from required public comment/EIS steps, and technical/operational complexity. On balance the call presents meaningful commercial progress and financing/partnership momentum while leaving execution, regulatory and cost-control risks to be managed.Positive Updates
Production Agreement with Allseas
Signed May 11 to complete, commission and operate the first commercial polymetallic nodule collection system; Allseas to fund a significant portion of preproduction costs (repayable after production) and bring 40+ years deepwater engineering experience; integration and commissioning planned to begin late 2027.
Negative Updates
Sustained Net Loss
Net loss of $20.6M in Q1 2026, unchanged from Q1 2025; net loss per share improved to $0.05 from $0.06 (≈ -16.7%), but the company remains loss-making while advancing development.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Agreement with Allseas
Signed May 11 to complete, commission and operate the first commercial polymetallic nodule collection system; Allseas to fund a significant portion of preproduction costs (repayable after production) and bring 40+ years deepwater engineering experience; integration and commissioning planned to begin late 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated a near‑term regulatory and execution timetable and provided detailed financial and project metrics: NOAA certification is complete and TMC expects the commercial recovery permit in Q1 2027 (public comment periods include 60‑day windows), with integration and commissioning of the first commercial module production system targeted in late 2027 (Q4 2027 commissioning target) and commercial production shortly thereafter; Allseas (40+ years of deepwater experience) will complete and operate the system and will fund a significant portion of pre‑production costs (to be repaid after production) while TMC expects to continue sharing capex with Allseas. Financially, liquidity was ~$164M as of March 31, 2026 (including a $44M undrawn credit facility and a $9M timing item), Q1 2026 net loss was ~$20.6M (‑$0.05/share), exploration & evaluation expense $13.3M, G&A $20.7M, accounts payable $53.9M (including $32.1M owed to Allseas; excl. Allseas and the $9M tax item AP would be ~$13M), net cash used in operations $0.6M in Q1 (or ~$9.6M excluding the $9M timing), and free cash flow ‑$0.6M (vs ‑$9.4M prior year). Project economics from published studies include a PFS NPV of $5.5B, an initial‑assessment NPV of $18.1B (combined ~$23.6B), life‑of‑project undiscounted revenue of ~ $369B and > $200B EBITDA, and a Brownsville site under review of ~1,466 acres with pre‑feasibility work toward a potential 12 Mtpa processing park.TMC the metals company Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
6
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -176.00K | -252.00K | -362.00K | -360.00K | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -330.67M | -139.80M | -78.93M | -73.38M | -170.47M | -143.74M |
| Net Income | -319.86M | -319.84M | -81.94M | -73.78M | -170.96M | -141.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 184.87M | 181.63M | 63.00M | 68.90M | 94.78M | 133.13M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 119.68M | 117.63M | 3.48M | 6.84M | 46.84M | 84.87M |
| Total Debt | 145.00M | 0.00 | 11.78M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 212.22M | 215.07M | 80.12M | 57.98M | 53.27M | 40.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | -27.35M | -33.44M | -17.12M | 10.92M | 41.51M | 92.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -34.08M | -42.85M | -43.98M | -60.15M | -67.77M | -56.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -34.12M | -42.85M | -43.47M | -59.57M | -66.60M | -56.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 482.00K | 447.00K | -515.00K | -578.00K | -1.17M | -3.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 151.01M | 156.59M | 40.69M | 20.07M | 29.72M | 134.70M |
TMC the metals company Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
5.32
Price Trends
5.23
Negative
6.02
Negative
6.21
Negative
Market Momentum
0.05
Positive
43.85
Neutral
17.58
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.42, above the 50-day MA of 5.23, and below the 200-day MA of 6.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.58 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMC.
TMC the metals company Inc. Risk Analysis
TMC the metals company Inc. disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TMC the metals company Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TMC the metals company Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.22B | 19.35 | 2.79% | ― | 6.42% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $4.21B | 39.95 | 8.17% | 0.43% | 11.39% | 651.28% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $4.64B | -11.10 | -76.51% | ― | ― | -493.47% | |
55 Neutral | $405.15M | -2.72 | -63.85% | ― | 776.51% | 38.07% | |
52 Neutral | $1.19B | -0.87 | -35.30% | ― | ― | -48.46% | |
49 Neutral | $2.24B | -18.24 | 6542.67% | ― | ― | -243.05% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TMC
TMC the metals company Inc.
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14.12%
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116.78%
TMC the metals company Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TMC Achieves Key NOAA Milestone in U.S. Seabed Mining
Positive
May 1, 2026
On May 1, 2026, TMC the metals company Inc. announced that the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has found the consolidated application of its subsidiary TMC USA for an exploration license and commercial recovery permit under th...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TMC Secures Key NOAA Milestone for Deep-Sea Mining
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 9, 2026, TMC announced that the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined its subsidiary TMC USA’s consolidated application for an exploration license and commercial recovery permit under the Deep Seabed Hard M...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.