TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.42
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -111.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 413,492,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,618,441
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,178,876
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -21.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -13.26K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -8.97
• 1Y Price Target: $8.33
• Price Target Upside: 15.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.00 ▼(-3.31% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, widening losses, and ongoing cash burn) and limited valuation support (negative P/E, no dividend). Offsetting factors include a relatively modest-debt profile and earnings-call positives around liquidity and regulatory progress, while technicals are only mildly supportive with mixed momentum.

Positive Factors

Large resource base & long-term margin potential

A reported resource value >$23B and ~43% steady-state EBITDA per ton imply durable project economics if commercialized. This large in-situ resource and attractive per-ton margin underpin the firm’s long-term revenue optionality and strategic relevance to critical-minerals supply chains.

Strong near-term liquidity runway

Holding ~$165M in liquidity plus potential >$400M from warrants materially extends the company’s runway to fund exploration, environmental work, and regulatory permitting. That reduces near-term refinancing pressure and supports multi-year project development toward commercialization.

Regulatory progress and technical milestones

Filing the first commercial recovery permit and advancing NOAA interactions represents structural de-risking of the permitting pathway. Coupled with demonstrated conversion of manganese nodules to battery-grade sulfate, these steps strengthen the firm's technical credibility and long-term project viability.

Negative Factors

No revenue and widening losses

Zero revenue alongside rapidly widening operating and net losses indicates the business remains at an investment stage without commercial cash inflows. Persistent negative earnings erode flexibility, force continued external funding, and make sustaining multi-year development plans contingent on capital access.

Negative equity and ongoing cash burn

Negative equity (~-$41M) and sustained operating cash outflows (~-$45M TTM) signal a fragile capital structure and reliance on external financing. That increases refinancing and dilution risk over the medium term if commercial milestones and permitting timelines slip.

Regulatory timing and execution risk

Reliance on regulatory approvals (permit targeted in 2027) and multiyear commercialization (steady-state 2031–2043) creates structural timing risk. Delays in permitting or trials extend capital needs, defer revenue realization, and heighten execution risk for long-term project economics.

TMC the metals company Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TMC the metals company Inc., a deep-sea minerals exploration company, focuses on the collection, processing, and refining of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the south-west of San Diego, California. The company primarily explores for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese products. TMC the metals company Inc., through its subsidiaries, holds exploration rights in three polymetallic nodule contract areas in the CCZ of the Pacific Ocean. Its products are used in electric vehicles (EV), renewable energy storage markets, EV wiring, clean energy transmission, manganese alloy production required for steel production, and other applications. The company was formerly known as Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corporation and changed its name to TMC the metals company Inc. TMC the metals company Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

TMC generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of polymetallic nodules. The company explores international waters for these nodules and uses environmentally conscious methods to collect them from the ocean floor. TMC's revenue model is heavily reliant on the demand for critical metals, driven by the expanding electric vehicle market and the need for sustainable energy solutions. Key revenue streams include the sale of extracted metals to battery manufacturers and other industrial clients. Significant partnerships with maritime and mining companies, as well as research institutions, contribute to TMC's ability to efficiently and responsibly harvest these resources. The company's earnings are also influenced by fluctuations in metal prices and regulatory developments concerning deep-sea mining.

TMC the metals company Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TMC the metals company Inc. exhibits significant financial instability. The lack of revenue and large operational losses highlight severe income statement challenges. The balance sheet shows insolvency risks due to negative equity, while cash flow analysis reveals a dependency on external financing to sustain operations. These factors indicate a critical need for strategic financial restructuring and revenue generation to improve financial health.

Income Statement

TMC the metals company Inc. has consistently reported zero or negative revenue, with significant net losses over the years. The lack of gross profit and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect operational inefficiencies and an inability to generate revenue. Revenue growth is non-existent, and the company has not been able to improve its income metrics, indicating poor income statement performance.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a negative stockholders' equity, indicating insolvency risk, as liabilities exceed assets. The absence of revenue and high debt-to-equity ratio pose substantial financial risks. However, the company maintains a considerable amount of cash and cash equivalents relative to its total assets, providing some liquidity cushion.

Cash Flow

TMC's cash flow situation is concerning, with consistently negative free and operating cash flows. This indicates an inability to generate cash from its core operations. Although financing activities have provided cash inflows, they are not sustainable long-term solutions. The company's reliance on external financing underscores the challenges in achieving operational cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-197.00K	-362.00K	-360.00K	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-291.32M	-78.93M	-73.38M	-170.47M	-143.74M	-56.04M
Net Income	-295.51M	-81.94M	-73.78M	-170.96M	-141.30M	-56.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	175.62M	63.00M	68.90M	94.78M	133.13M	54.69M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	115.65M	3.48M	6.84M	46.84M	84.87M	10.10M
Total Debt	0.00	11.78M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	216.24M	80.12M	57.98M	53.27M	40.37M	18.43M
Stockholders Equity	-40.62M	-17.12M	10.92M	41.51M	92.75M	36.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-45.48M	-43.98M	-60.15M	-67.77M	-56.49M	-27.14M
Operating Cash Flow	-45.29M	-43.47M	-59.57M	-66.60M	-56.09M	-26.53M
Investing Cash Flow	156.00K	-515.00K	-578.00K	-1.17M	-3.84M	-607.00K
Financing Cash Flow	160.85M	40.69M	20.07M	29.72M	134.70M	21.29M

TMC the metals company Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.24
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.15, above the 50-day MA of 6.62, and above the 200-day MA of 5.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMC.

TMC the metals company Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTRN	69 Neutral	$3.09B	162.76	2.08%	0.43%	3.93%	-73.94%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ABAT	55 Neutral	$632.30M	-9.49	-58.41%	―	821.40%	44.70%
CMP	54 Neutral	$1.01B	-12.15	-28.98%	―	11.32%	61.60%
IPX	49 Neutral	$1.57B	-39.17	-49.09%	―	―	-18.77%
USAR	47 Neutral	$2.48B	-7.04	-255.91%	―	―	―
TMC	45 Neutral	$3.05B	-9.46	―	―	―	-111.94%