TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.44B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -111.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 413,492,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,797,082
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,879,960
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -21.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -11.72K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.93
• 1Y Price Target: $12.00
• Price Target Upside: 104.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▲(27.77% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 01/27/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 01/27/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, widening losses, and continued cash burn alongside negative equity). Offsetting factors include constructive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD) and a moderately positive earnings narrative focused on liquidity and permitting progress, while valuation is difficult to support due to negative earnings and no dividend data.

Positive Factors

Strong liquidity and potential incremental financing

A liquid position of ~$165M plus >$400M potential warrant proceeds materially extends the runway for exploration, permitting and pilot programs. This reduces immediate refinancing pressure, allowing the company to advance regulatory and technical milestones before commercial revenues are required.

Landmark NOAA consolidated application expanding recovery area

Filing the consolidated NOAA application and expanding the proposed recovery area meaningfully increases resource optionality and potential scale. This structural regulatory step enhances the company's pathway to commercial operations and improves the long-term revenue and capacity outlook if permits are granted.

Processing milestone: battery-grade manganese sulfate

Proving the ability to convert nodules into battery-grade manganese sulfate reduces downstream processing risk and supports integration into battery supply chains. This technical capability increases the likelihood of achieving higher-value product sales and sustained margin capture once operations scale.

Negative Factors

No revenue and widening operating losses

The company remains pre-revenue with materially larger net losses year-over-year, indicating it is still in a capital-intensive development phase. Persistent negative earnings increase dependence on external capital and make it harder to demonstrate sustainable unit economics before commercial production.

Negative equity and fragile capital structure

Negative shareholder equity reflects accumulated deficits and weakens the balance sheet's shock-absorbing capacity. This fragile capital structure constrains financing options, increases probability of dilution or costly funding terms, and limits strategic flexibility during the multi-year development cycle.

Permitting timing and execution risk

Regulatory review timing is a critical determinant of project timelines and cash flow realization. Delays from government actions or protracted permitting processes can push commercialization out, extend cash burn, and materially change project economics over the medium term.

TMC the metals company Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TMC the metals company Inc., a deep-sea minerals exploration company, focuses on the collection, processing, and refining of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the south-west of San Diego, California. The company primarily explores for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese products. TMC the metals company Inc., through its subsidiaries, holds exploration rights in three polymetallic nodule contract areas in the CCZ of the Pacific Ocean. Its products are used in electric vehicles (EV), renewable energy storage markets, EV wiring, clean energy transmission, manganese alloy production required for steel production, and other applications. The company was formerly known as Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corporation and changed its name to TMC the metals company Inc. TMC the metals company Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

TMC generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of polymetallic nodules. The company explores international waters for these nodules and uses environmentally conscious methods to collect them from the ocean floor. TMC's revenue model is heavily reliant on the demand for critical metals, driven by the expanding electric vehicle market and the need for sustainable energy solutions. Key revenue streams include the sale of extracted metals to battery manufacturers and other industrial clients. Significant partnerships with maritime and mining companies, as well as research institutions, contribute to TMC's ability to efficiently and responsibly harvest these resources. The company's earnings are also influenced by fluctuations in metal prices and regulatory developments concerning deep-sea mining.

TMC the metals company Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials reflect an investment-stage profile with no revenue, very large and widening losses (TTM EBIT about -$112M; net loss about -$296M), and ongoing cash burn (TTM operating cash flow/free cash flow about -$45M). While reported debt is low, negative equity (about -$41M) weakens financial resilience and increases reliance on external funding.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show no revenue and very large operating losses (EBIT of about -$112M and net loss of about -$296M), indicating the business is not yet operating at a commercial scale. Losses have widened materially versus 2024 (net loss ~-$82M) and 2023 (net loss ~-$74M), pointing to a deteriorating earnings trajectory. The main positive is that losses appear driven by investment-stage costs rather than leverage, but profitability and margin profile remain extremely weak.

Balance Sheet

The company reports low debt in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), which reduces near-term balance-sheet stress, but equity is negative (about -$41M TTM), signaling accumulated losses and limited financial cushion. Total assets increased to about $176M TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from about $63M in 2024, suggesting ongoing capital deployment, but negative equity raises refinancing and funding risk if losses persist. Overall leverage looks modest on debt, yet the capital structure is fragile because the equity base is impaired.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak: operating cash flow is negative across all periods and remains sizable at about -$45M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with free cash flow similarly negative (about -$45M). While free cash flow improved versus 2023–2022 (less negative) and shows positive growth in the latest periods, the company still consumes cash to fund operations. Cash burn broadly tracks reported net losses, indicating limited near-term self-funding capacity and continued reliance on external capital.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-197.00K	-362.00K	-360.00K	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-291.32M	-78.93M	-73.38M	-170.47M	-143.74M	-56.04M
Net Income	-295.51M	-81.94M	-73.78M	-170.96M	-141.30M	-56.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	175.62M	63.00M	68.90M	94.78M	133.13M	54.69M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	115.65M	3.48M	6.84M	46.84M	84.87M	10.10M
Total Debt	0.00	11.78M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	216.24M	80.12M	57.98M	53.27M	40.37M	18.43M
Stockholders Equity	-40.62M	-17.12M	10.92M	41.51M	92.75M	36.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-45.48M	-43.98M	-60.15M	-67.77M	-56.49M	-27.14M
Operating Cash Flow	-45.29M	-43.47M	-59.57M	-66.60M	-56.09M	-26.53M
Investing Cash Flow	156.00K	-515.00K	-578.00K	-1.17M	-3.84M	-607.00K
Financing Cash Flow	160.85M	40.69M	20.07M	29.72M	134.70M	21.29M

TMC the metals company Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.87
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.78, below the 50-day MA of 7.02, and below the 200-day MA of 6.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMC.

TMC the metals company Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTRN	67 Neutral	$3.17B	42.79	8.26%	0.43%	3.93%	-73.94%
USAR	62 Neutral	$3.97B	-7.32	-255.91%	―	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TMC	57 Neutral	$2.44B	-7.89	―	―	―	-111.94%
CMP	55 Neutral	$989.23M	-24.73	-14.48%	―	11.32%	61.60%
ABAT	54 Neutral	$482.06M	-9.18	-43.52%	―	821.40%	44.70%
IPX	49 Neutral	$1.39B	-35.20	-49.09%	―	―	-18.77%

TMC the metals company Inc. Corporate Events

TMC Files Landmark NOAA Application for Deep-Sea Nodule Mining

On January 22, 2026, TMC’s wholly owned U.S. subsidiary, The Metals Company USA LLC, submitted the first-ever consolidated application to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for both an exploration license and a commercial recovery permit for polymetallic nodules in the Clarion Clipperton Zone of the Pacific Ocean, under NOAA’s new streamlined review framework. The filing expands the company’s proposed commercial recovery area in international waters from about 25,000 km² to roughly 65,000 km², covering an estimated 619 million tonnes of wet nodules with a potential upside of a further 200 million tonnes, and is backed by extensive environmental baseline studies, 27 offshore research cruises, large-scale pilot mining and processing trials, and peer-reviewed research suggesting mining impacts are largely confined to directly mined areas; TMC argues this body of work demonstrates the maturity of its project and positions it to move rapidly into phased commercial operations within the updated U.S. regulatory regime for deep-seabed mining.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMC) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMC the metals company Inc. stock, see the TMC Stock Forecast page.