TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC)
NASDAQ:TMC
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TMC the metals company Inc.
(NASDAQ:TMC)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-9.30% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is primarily constrained by very weak financial performance (no revenue, worsening losses, and ongoing cash burn with negative equity) and a bearish technical trend (below all key moving averages with weak momentum). This is partially offset by the earnings call’s constructive regulatory/project milestones and stated liquidity position, but near-term execution and permitting risks remain material.
Positive Factors
Regulatory milestone & expanded commercial area
NOAA's substantial compliance finding and area expansion materially increase resource scale and clarify the U.S. permitting pathway. This durable regulatory progress raises the probability of moving from exploration to commercial recovery, enlarging long-term project optionality and commercial addressable market.
Negative Factors
Pre‑revenue with deepening losses and cash burn
Despite extensive R&D and pilot work, TMC remains pre‑revenue and generated substantial TTM losses and cash outflows. Persistent cash burn means multi‑year external funding is likely required to reach commissioning and production, raising execution and dilution risk across the development timeline.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulatory milestone & expanded commercial area
NOAA's substantial compliance finding and area expansion materially increase resource scale and clarify the U.S. permitting pathway. This durable regulatory progress raises the probability of moving from exploration to commercial recovery, enlarging long-term project optionality and commercial addressable market.
Read all positive factors
TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.03B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.74
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-111.94%
CountryUS
Employees47
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding433,188,200
10 Day Avg. Volume7,552,128
30 Day Avg. Volume5,527,158
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-70.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-55.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.92
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-9.60K
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.67Price Target Upside141.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
TMC the metals company Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TMC the metals company Inc., a deep-sea minerals exploration company, focuses on the collection, processing, and refining of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the south-west of San Diego, California...
How the Company Makes Money
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TMC the metals company Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized meaningful operational, regulatory and strategic progress (NOAA consolidated application deemed substantially compliant; Allseas commercial terms for the Hidden Gem; expanded commercial area to ~65,000 km2; Port of Brownsville site work and Mariana partnership; TMCR listing; EIA completion; solid near-term liquidity). These positive milestones are tempered by material near-term costs and accounting impacts (Q4 net loss widening, G&A up ~321%), ongoing free cash outflows despite improvements, increased non-cash liabilities (royalty and warrant revaluations), and remaining permit/timeline risks. On balance the call presents substantial forward momentum and optionality tied to permit outcomes and partnerships, while also flagging short-term financial and execution risk.Positive Updates
NOAA permitting milestone and regulatory clarity
Submitted the first consolidated application under NOAA's revised DSHMRA process; application deemed "substantially compliant" and company expects grant of commercial recovery permit within 12 months, providing a clearer, streamlined regulatory path for commercial recovery.
Negative Updates
Widening GAAP net loss (Q4 2025)
Q4 2025 net loss $40.4M ($0.08/share) vs $16.1M ($0.04/share) in Q4 2024 — an increase of $24.3M (+151%), driven by higher G&A and share-based compensation amortization.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
NOAA permitting milestone and regulatory clarity
Submitted the first consolidated application under NOAA's revised DSHMRA process; application deemed "substantially compliant" and company expects grant of commercial recovery permit within 12 months, providing a clearer, streamlined regulatory path for commercial recovery.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call guided that TMC expects NOAA to grant its commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months (the consolidated application filed in January was deemed substantially compliant), that the Hidden Gem production system is being developed as a 3.0 million wet tonnes per annum nominal system with two collector vehicles and remains on track for system commissioning in Q4 2027 (with initial production ramping into early 2028, starting with one collector then the second), and that onshore work includes a pre‑feasibility for a 12 million tonne per annum nodule industrial park and a BFS targeted by end‑October. Key project economics cited: PFS NPV $5.5B, initial assessment NPV $18.1B (total ~$23.6B), undiscounted revenue ~$369B and EBITDA >$200B; resource/permit program metrics include >$700M invested, 15 years of research and >1 petabyte of environmental data; corporate liquidity and financials highlighted YE‑2025 cash $117.6M (≈$110M expected Mar‑31‑2026), liquidity (cash + facility) $162M YE‑2025 (≈$154M Mar‑31‑2026), Q4‑2025 net loss $40.4M ($0.08/share) vs $16.1M a year ago, Q4 free cash outflow $11.5M (FY‑2025 $43.1M), and financing inflows in 2025 of $85.2M (Korea Zinc), $41.2M (other RDs), $14.8M (ATM) and $27M (exercises).TMC the metals company Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
7
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -252.00K | -362.00K | -360.00K | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -139.80M | -78.93M | -73.38M | -170.47M | -143.74M |
| Net Income | -319.84M | -81.94M | -73.78M | -170.96M | -141.30M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 181.63M | 63.00M | 68.90M | 94.78M | 133.13M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 117.63M | 3.48M | 6.84M | 46.84M | 84.87M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 11.78M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 215.07M | 80.12M | 57.98M | 53.27M | 40.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | -33.44M | -17.12M | 10.92M | 41.51M | 92.75M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -42.85M | -43.98M | -60.15M | -67.77M | -56.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -42.85M | -43.47M | -59.57M | -66.60M | -56.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 447.00K | -515.00K | -578.00K | -1.17M | -3.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 156.59M | 40.69M | 20.07M | 29.72M | 134.70M |
TMC the metals company Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
4.41
Price Trends
5.90
Negative
6.38
Negative
6.45
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.45
Negative
40.74
Neutral
62.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.09, below the 50-day MA of 5.90, and below the 200-day MA of 6.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMC.
TMC the metals company Inc. Risk Analysis
TMC the metals company Inc. disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TMC the metals company Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TMC the metals company Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $3.37B | 34.48 | 8.14% | 0.43% | 3.93% | -73.94% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $1.05B | 11.11 | -15.33% | ― | 11.32% | 61.60% | |
49 Neutral | $378.01M | -11.63 | -46.98% | ― | 821.40% | 44.70% | |
49 Neutral | $3.66B | -3.92 | -49.67% | ― | ― | ― | |
44 Neutral | $2.03B | -7.42 | 9999.00% | ― | ― | -111.94% | |
44 Neutral | $1.06B | -0.87 | -35.30% | ― | ― | -18.77% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TMC
TMC the metals company Inc.
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TMC the metals company Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TMC Secures Key NOAA Milestone for Deep-Sea Mining
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 9, 2026, TMC announced that the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined its subsidiary TMC USA’s consolidated application for an exploration license and commercial recovery permit under the Deep Seabed Hard M...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TMC Files Landmark NOAA Application for Deep-Sea Nodule Mining
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 22, 2026, TMC’s wholly owned U.S. subsidiary, The Metals Company USA LLC, submitted the first-ever consolidated application to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for both an exploration license and a commercial re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.