Rio Tinto (RIO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $144.00B
• Dividend Yield: 4.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.76M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -0.44%
• EPS Growth: -4.20%
• Country: US
• Employees: 60,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 2.96
• Shares Outstanding: 1,254,292,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,986,933
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,756,166
• PEG Ratio: 0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.78
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.91
• 1Y Price Target: $82.75
• Price Target Upside: -2.51% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $98.00 ▲(15.46% Upside)

Rio Tinto's stock score is driven by strong technical indicators and a solid valuation, supported by a robust dividend yield. Financial performance is stable, with strong profitability and a solid balance sheet, though revenue growth and cash flow conversion present challenges. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data did not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Health

Low leverage and a >50% equity ratio give Rio Tinto durable financial flexibility to fund capex, weather commodity cycles, and pursue strategic options without straining liquidity. Strong ROE signals efficient capital use and supports long-term shareholder returns.

Sustained Profitability Margins

High and improving gross and operating margins reflect scale, low unit costs and effective cost management across core assets. Such margin durability supports cash flow resilience and ability to invest in high-return projects through commodity cycles.

Operational Scale & Decarbonisation Innovation

Piloting battery-swap haul trucks demonstrates investment in cost-saving, decarbonisation tech that can lower long-term operating costs and emissions. Leading adoption of cleaner haulage can preserve license to operate and improve competitiveness amid tightening ESG standards.

Negative Factors

Revenue & Cash Conversion Weakness

Material decline in free cash flow and weakened cash conversion reduces internally available funding for development projects and dividends. Persistent negative top-line growth pressures earnings upside and increases reliance on asset sales or higher-risk financing over the medium term.

Asset Sales & Strategic Uncertainty

A major divestment program can simplify the portfolio but risks selling future growth engines, disrupting customer or partner relationships, and creating execution risk. Large-scale disposals may also signal strategic reset and increase short-to-medium term uncertainty over core asset plans.

Operational & Governance Risk at Oyu Tolgoi

Investigations and government oversight at a flagship copper operation can delay projects, increase compliance and legal costs, and strain host-government relations. Such governance risks pose sustained production and permitting uncertainty for a major long-life asset.

Rio Tinto Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore, Aluminium, Copper, and Minerals Segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia. The Aluminum segment is involved in bauxite mining; alumina refining; and aluminium smelting. The Copper segment engages in mining and refining of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other by-products and exploration activities. The Minerals segment is involved in mining and processing of borates, titanium dioxide feedstock, and iron concentrate and pellets; diamond mining, sorting, and marketing; and development projects for battery materials, such as lithium. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines; and refineries, smelters, processing plants and power, and shipping facilities. Rio Tinto Group was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Rio Tinto generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of minerals and metals. Key revenue streams include the production of iron ore, which is a significant contributor to its earnings due to high demand from steel manufacturers, especially in Asia. The company also earns revenue from its aluminum, copper, and diamond operations, each contributing to its diversified portfolio. Additionally, Rio Tinto benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales, allowing it to capitalize on fluctuating commodity prices. Strategic partnerships with governments and other entities, along with effective cost management and operational efficiency, further enhance its profitability. The company's focus on sustainability and innovation also positions it favorably in the market, attracting investments and ensuring compliance with environmental regulations.

Rio Tinto Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Rio Tinto's financials show strong profitability margins and a solid balance sheet. Despite challenges in revenue growth and cash flow conversion, operational efficiency and capital structure are commendable. Continued focus on cost management and cash flow improvement is essential.

Income Statement

Rio Tinto has shown a mixed performance in its recent income statements. The Gross Profit Margin improved in 2024, reaching 56.43% from 32.01% in 2023, indicating better cost management. However, the Net Profit Margin saw a slight decline from 18.61% in 2023 to 21.53% in 2024. The Revenue Growth Rate was negative at -0.71% from 2023 to 2024, showing a slight contraction in sales. Despite these challenges, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong at 29.17% and 43.16% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Rio Tinto maintains a solid balance sheet with a healthy Equity Ratio of 53.73% in 2024, reflecting strong capitalization. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio improved to 0.25 from 0.26, indicating effective management of liabilities. Return on Equity is robust at 20.91%, a slight increase from 18.43% in 2023, highlighting the company's ability to generate returns for its shareholders.

Cash Flow

The cash flow position of Rio Tinto shows some areas of concern. Free Cash Flow decreased by 25.95% from 2023 to 2024, but operating cash flow remains stable. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong at 1.35, indicating good cash generation relative to net profits. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio fell to 0.52, suggesting reduced cash conversion efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	53.96B	53.66B	54.04B	55.55B	63.49B	44.61B
Gross Profit	14.24B	30.28B	17.30B	34.27B	44.93B	29.13B
EBITDA	18.50B	19.06B	20.38B	24.76B	35.08B	19.66B
Net Income	10.25B	11.55B	10.06B	12.39B	21.11B	9.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	120.81B	102.79B	103.55B	96.74B	102.90B	97.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.33B	7.20B	10.79B	8.94B	15.35B	13.23B
Total Debt	23.64B	13.86B	14.35B	12.27B	13.53B	14.02B
Total Liabilities	58.84B	44.82B	47.21B	44.47B	46.31B	45.49B
Stockholders Equity	58.20B	55.25B	54.59B	50.17B	51.43B	47.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.20B	5.98B	8.07B	9.38B	17.96B	9.69B
Operating Cash Flow	15.58B	15.60B	15.16B	16.13B	25.34B	15.88B
Investing Cash Flow	-16.58B	-9.59B	-6.96B	-6.71B	-7.16B	-6.56B
Financing Cash Flow	-207.45M	-7.09B	-5.28B	-15.47B	-15.86B	-7.13B

Rio Tinto Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 84.88
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 84.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.39, above the 50-day MA of 74.38, and above the 200-day MA of 63.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.64 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RIO.

Rio Tinto Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RIO	80 Outperform	$144.00B	13.42	18.18%	4.60%	-0.44%	-4.20%
VALE	79 Outperform	$58.09B	10.70	13.65%	10.04%	-8.49%	-41.69%
BHP	73 Outperform	$159.28B	17.79	19.51%	3.55%	-7.86%	14.17%
MTRN	69 Neutral	$2.79B	146.89	2.08%	0.43%	3.93%	-73.94%
NEXA	64 Neutral	$1.28B	-79.18	-1.64%	1.14%	7.92%	91.83%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
MP	61 Neutral	$10.60B	-89.01	-6.83%	―	26.44%	-95.87%

Rio Tinto Corporate Events

Rio Tinto Updates Market on Voting Rights and December 2025 Operational Developments

In a Form 6-K filed for December 2025 and signed on 5 January 2026, Rio Tinto outlined a series of recent corporate, operational and governance developments, including stock exchange notifications on its total voting rights, changes in director and key management shareholdings, and the issuance and conversion of unquoted equity securities. As part of these disclosures, the company reported that as of 28 November 2025 Rio Tinto plc’s issued share capital consisted of 1,256,010,228 ordinary shares of 10p each, of which 1,717,902 were held in treasury, resulting in 1,254,292,326 voting rights, a key reference figure for shareholders monitoring ownership thresholds under UK transparency rules; it also highlighted its dual-listed capital structure with Rio Tinto Limited, as well as a stream of December announcements covering lithium resource reporting, progress on copper production technology, partnerships with Aboriginal corporations, investment in Pilbara iron ore feasibility work and the introduction of battery-electric haul trucks in the Pilbara, all of which signal ongoing portfolio development and operational modernisation across its core mining businesses.

The most recent analyst rating on (RIO) stock is a Hold with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto stock, see the RIO Stock Forecast page.