MP Materials (MP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 11.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 39.42%
• EPS Growth: -172.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 804
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 61
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 177,098,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,244,996
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,430,279
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.51
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 23.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -99.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -198.44
• 1Y Price Target: $77.91
• Price Target Upside: 24.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $71.00 ▲(13.71% Upside)

MP Materials' overall stock score is driven by strong strategic partnerships and positive earnings call sentiment, which offset financial performance challenges. The technical analysis supports a stable outlook, while valuation concerns persist due to negative profitability metrics. The company's future growth potential, backed by significant partnerships, provides a promising outlook despite current financial hurdles.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

The partnerships with DoD and Apple provide substantial financial backing and long-term contracts, enhancing MP Materials' market position and supply chain stability, crucial for sustainable growth.

Revenue Growth

Significant revenue growth indicates strong demand for MP Materials' products, driven by strategic sales and production increases, supporting long-term financial health and market expansion.

Operational Success

Continued operational success in production enhances MP Materials' ability to meet growing demand, reinforcing its competitive edge in the rare earth materials market.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Persistent profitability issues, reflected in negative margins, could hinder MP Materials' ability to invest in growth and maintain financial stability, posing long-term risks.

Cash Flow Management

Weak cash flow management limits MP Materials' operational flexibility and ability to fund strategic initiatives, potentially affecting future growth and resilience.

Sales Channel Concentration

Concentration of sales channels to strategic partners may reduce market diversification, increasing dependency on a limited customer base and potentially impacting revenue stability.

MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MP Materials Corp. owns and operates rare earth mining and processing facilities. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine located in the Western Hemisphere. The company holds the mineral rights to the Mountain Pass mine and surrounding areas, as well as intellectual property rights related to the processing and development of rare earth minerals. It offers cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, praseodymium, and samarium. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

How the Company Makes Money

MP Materials generates revenue primarily through the sale of processed rare earth materials, including neodymium, praseodymium, and other rare earth oxides. The company operates on a cost-plus pricing model, allowing it to set prices based on production costs plus a margin. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major customers in the automotive and electronics sectors, as well as spot market sales. Strategic partnerships with companies in the clean technology and electric vehicle industries also contribute to its earnings, as the demand for rare earth materials continues to grow. Additionally, MP Materials benefits from government initiatives aimed at reducing reliance on foreign sources of rare earth elements, further enhancing its market position and revenue potential.

MP Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MP Materials faces significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow management. Despite some revenue growth, the company struggles with negative margins and cash flows, impacting its financial health. The balance sheet remains relatively stable, but improvements in operational performance are crucial for future stability and growth.

Income Statement

MP Materials has experienced significant volatility in its income statement metrics. The TTM data shows a negative gross profit margin and net profit margin, indicating challenges in profitability. Revenue growth is positive at 12.1% TTM, but the company has struggled with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting operational inefficiencies. The historical trend shows a sharp decline from strong profitability in 2022, highlighting potential risks in maintaining stable earnings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of MP Materials shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.91 TTM, which is manageable but has increased over time. The return on equity is negative, reflecting recent losses, but the equity ratio remains healthy, indicating a solid capital structure. The company needs to address its profitability issues to improve its financial stability.

Cash Flow

MP Materials' cash flow statement reveals challenges with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high due to significant negative free cash flow, indicating cash flow management issues. Although there was some growth in free cash flow, the overall cash flow position remains weak, necessitating improvements in operational efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	242.12M	203.85M	253.44M	527.51M	331.95M	134.31M
Gross Profit	-56.67M	-66.79M	105.02M	416.94M	231.32M	63.58M
EBITDA	-28.29M	7.72M	94.04M	365.29M	193.48M	-27.52M
Net Income	-101.38M	-65.42M	24.31M	289.00M	135.04M	-21.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.34B	2.33B	2.34B	2.24B	1.89B	1.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	753.66M	850.87M	997.84M	1.18B	1.18B	519.65M
Total Debt	916.82M	914.53M	688.81M	678.44M	691.82M	70.82M
Total Liabilities	1.33B	1.28B	970.67M	925.15M	880.93M	220.41M
Stockholders Equity	1.01B	1.05B	1.37B	1.31B	1.01B	853.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-190.78M	-173.07M	-199.20M	16.92M	-21.90M	-19.09M
Operating Cash Flow	-43.22M	13.35M	62.70M	343.51M	101.97M	3.28M
Investing Cash Flow	53.06M	10.06M	68.70M	-1.36B	-119.36M	-22.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-43.89M	-4.79M	-9.92M	-24.19M	666.11M	521.96M

MP Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 62.44
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.99, above the 50-day MA of 61.11, and above the 200-day MA of 32.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MP.

MP Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTRN	78 Outperform	$2.29B	144.59	1.79%	0.50%	5.55%	-79.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.29B	7.21	-0.05%	2.89%	2.87%	-36.73%
MP	60 Neutral	$11.06B	―	-9.57%	―	39.42%	-172.40%
GSM	50 Neutral	$780.10M	27.86	-12.38%	1.29%	-8.59%	-256.43%
TMC	42 Neutral	$2.08B	―	-364.03%	―	―	-9.91%
IPX	35 Underperform	$1.49B	―	-40.55%	―	―	-15.85%
USAR	―	$1.35B	19.13	-150.65%	―	―	―

MP Materials Corporate Events

MP Materials Secures $275 Million Credit Facility

On August 25, 2025, MP Materials Corp. entered into a credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, establishing a 5-year, $275 million revolving credit facility for general corporate purposes. This agreement includes a $200 million letter of credit facility sublimit and features variable interest rates based on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate. The credit agreement imposes several financial covenants and restrictions on MP Materials, including maintaining certain leverage and cash interest expense coverage ratios, and it outlines conditions under which the company must repay borrowings or cash collateralize letters of credit. This financial arrangement is expected to support MP Materials’ operational flexibility and strategic initiatives.

MP Materials Registers Shares for Potential Resale

On August 15, 2025, MP Materials Corp. filed a prospectus supplement with the SEC to register the potential resale of up to 24,521,672 shares of its common stock by the United States Department of Defense. This filing is part of a Registration Rights Agreement and does not involve the actual sale of securities by the selling securityholder, nor will the company receive any proceeds from such sales if they occur.

MP Materials Completes $724.2 Million Stock Offering

On July 16, 2025, MP Materials Corp. announced an upsized underwritten public offering of 11,818,181 shares of common stock at $55.00 per share, with net proceeds expected to be approximately $724.2 million. The offering, which closed on July 18, 2025, aims to accelerate and expand the company’s operations, including the development of the 10X Facility, and pursue strategic growth opportunities.

MP Materials Secures $500M Supply Deal with Apple

On July 15, 2025, MP Materials announced a $500 million long-term supply agreement with Apple Inc. to develop, manufacture, and supply magnets from recycled rare earth materials at its Independence facility in Texas. This agreement, which includes a $200 million prepayment from Apple, aims to support U.S. manufacturing and circular supply chains by sourcing 100% recycled rare earth magnets domestically. The collaboration will also involve the construction of a commercial-scale recycling line at Mountain Pass, California, and the expansion of MP Materials’ Fort Worth magnetics facility. This partnership is expected to enhance MP Materials’ vertical integration and supply chain resilience, while advancing sustainable production practices in the rare earth industry.

MP Materials Partners with U.S. Defense for Supply Chain

On July 9, 2025, MP Materials announced a significant partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense to enhance the domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, reducing foreign dependency. This agreement includes a 10-year NdPr price floor commitment and a 10-year magnet offtake agreement, positioning MP Materials as a key player in the industry. The partnership involves constructing a new magnet manufacturing facility, expanding rare earth separation capabilities, and a multibillion-dollar investment from the Department of Defense, which will become the company’s largest shareholder. This strategic move aims to secure critical supply chains and strengthen industrial resilience, with implications for stakeholders in defense and commercial sectors.

MP Materials Elects Directors and Approves Executive Compensation

On June 10, 2025, MP Materials Corp. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where three Class II directors were elected to serve until 2028. The stockholders also approved the compensation for the company’s executive officers and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.