MP Materials (MP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.27B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 21.37M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: 39.42%
• EPS Growth: -172.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 804
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 177,098,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,624,713
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,367,849
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 23.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -99.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -198.44
• 1Y Price Target: $72.70
• Price Target Upside: 6.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $77.00 ▲(12.95% Upside)

MP Materials' overall stock score is driven by strong positive sentiment from strategic partnerships and operational milestones, despite financial challenges. The technical indicators show bullish momentum, but valuation concerns due to negative profitability impact the score. The company's future growth potential is promising, supported by significant investments and partnerships.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Revenues of $57.4m beat both the Visible Alpha consensus and analyst estimate.

Operational Performance

MP reported record upstream production of 13.1kt, outpacing consensus by nearly 20% helped by uptime and record recoveries via initial Upstream 60K efforts.

Strategic Partnerships

MP shares have roughly doubled following transformational deals with the DoD and Apple, indicating strong validation of capabilities.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow

Cash from operations was significantly below the consensus and analyst model.

Realized Prices

Realized prices per REO MT came in lower than the estimate, falling to $4,468 from $4,808.

Sales Volume

REO sales volumes significantly decreased, indicating increasing downstream REO consumption and the ceasing of REO sales to Chinese-owned entities.

MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MP Materials Corp. is a leading producer of rare earth materials and is primarily involved in the mining and processing of rare earth elements (REEs). The company operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, one of the largest rare earth mines outside of China. MP Materials focuses on producing materials that are essential for modern technologies, including magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and various electronics.

How the Company Makes Money

MP Materials generates revenue through the extraction, processing, and sale of rare earth materials. The primary revenue stream comes from selling rare earth oxide concentrates, which are essential components in the manufacturing of high-performance magnets. These magnets are crucial for various industries, including automotive, renewable energy, and electronics. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers who require a stable and reliable source of rare earth materials. Furthermore, MP Materials is actively working on vertically integrating its operations to further enhance profitability by controlling more stages of the supply chain, from mining to the production of rare earth magnets.

MP Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MP Materials is facing financial headwinds with declining revenues and profitability. The balance sheet remains relatively stable with low leverage, but negative cash flow trends highlight liquidity concerns. The company needs to focus on improving revenue generation and operational efficiency to enhance its financial position.

Income Statement

MP Materials' TTM revenue has declined compared to previous years, with an evident drop in profitability marked by negative EBIT and net income margins. The company is facing challenges in maintaining its revenue growth and profitability, which is evident from the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent leverage management. However, the return on equity has turned negative due to losses, impacting overall shareholder value. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting asset financing primarily through equity.

Cash Flow

MP Materials is experiencing negative operating and free cash flows, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has weakened, reflecting inefficiencies in converting earnings to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	242.12M	203.85M	253.44M	527.51M	331.95M	134.31M
Gross Profit	-56.67M	-66.79M	105.02M	416.94M	231.32M	63.58M
EBITDA	-28.29M	7.72M	94.04M	365.29M	193.48M	-27.52M
Net Income	-101.38M	-65.42M	24.31M	289.00M	135.04M	-21.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.34B	2.33B	2.34B	2.24B	1.89B	1.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	753.66M	850.87M	997.84M	1.18B	1.18B	519.65M
Total Debt	916.82M	914.53M	688.81M	678.44M	691.82M	70.82M
Total Liabilities	1.33B	1.28B	970.67M	925.15M	880.93M	220.41M
Stockholders Equity	1.01B	1.05B	1.37B	1.31B	1.01B	853.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-190.78M	-173.07M	-199.20M	16.92M	-21.90M	-19.09M
Operating Cash Flow	-43.22M	13.35M	62.70M	343.51M	101.97M	3.28M
Investing Cash Flow	53.06M	10.06M	68.70M	-1.36B	-119.36M	-22.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-43.89M	-4.79M	-9.92M	-24.19M	666.11M	521.96M

MP Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 68.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 68.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.25, above the 50-day MA of 51.58, and above the 200-day MA of 29.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 5.87 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MP.

MP Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTRN	73 Outperform	$2.33B	146.83	1.79%	0.50%	5.55%	-79.38%
MP	63 Neutral	$12.27B	―	-9.57%	―	39.42%	-172.40%
Sector *	60 Neutral	€7.08B	9.10	0.72%	2.56%	-3.27%	-849.47%
GSM	50 Neutral	$776.36M	27.86	-12.38%	1.31%	-8.59%	-256.43%
TMC	42 Neutral	$1.95B	―	-364.03%	―	―	-9.91%
IPX	35 Underperform	$1.37B	―	-40.55%	―	―	-15.85%

MP Materials Corporate Events

MP Materials Registers Shares for Potential Resale

On August 15, 2025, MP Materials Corp. filed a prospectus supplement with the SEC to register the potential resale of up to 24,521,672 shares of its common stock by the United States Department of Defense. This filing is part of a Registration Rights Agreement and does not involve the actual sale of securities by the selling securityholder, nor will the company receive any proceeds from such sales if they occur.

MP Materials Completes $724.2 Million Stock Offering

On July 16, 2025, MP Materials Corp. announced an upsized underwritten public offering of 11,818,181 shares of common stock at $55.00 per share, with net proceeds expected to be approximately $724.2 million. The offering, which closed on July 18, 2025, aims to accelerate and expand the company’s operations, including the development of the 10X Facility, and pursue strategic growth opportunities.

MP Materials Secures $500M Supply Deal with Apple

On July 15, 2025, MP Materials announced a $500 million long-term supply agreement with Apple Inc. to develop, manufacture, and supply magnets from recycled rare earth materials at its Independence facility in Texas. This agreement, which includes a $200 million prepayment from Apple, aims to support U.S. manufacturing and circular supply chains by sourcing 100% recycled rare earth magnets domestically. The collaboration will also involve the construction of a commercial-scale recycling line at Mountain Pass, California, and the expansion of MP Materials’ Fort Worth magnetics facility. This partnership is expected to enhance MP Materials’ vertical integration and supply chain resilience, while advancing sustainable production practices in the rare earth industry.

MP Materials Partners with U.S. Defense for Supply Chain

On July 9, 2025, MP Materials announced a significant partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense to enhance the domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, reducing foreign dependency. This agreement includes a 10-year NdPr price floor commitment and a 10-year magnet offtake agreement, positioning MP Materials as a key player in the industry. The partnership involves constructing a new magnet manufacturing facility, expanding rare earth separation capabilities, and a multibillion-dollar investment from the Department of Defense, which will become the company’s largest shareholder. This strategic move aims to secure critical supply chains and strengthen industrial resilience, with implications for stakeholders in defense and commercial sectors.

MP Materials Elects Directors and Approves Executive Compensation

On June 10, 2025, MP Materials Corp. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where three Class II directors were elected to serve until 2028. The stockholders also approved the compensation for the company’s executive officers and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.