MP Materials (MP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.47B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 26.44%
• EPS Growth: -95.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 804
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 177,230,480
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,561,472
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,386,614
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 12.77
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 49.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -307.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -244.40
• 1Y Price Target: $77.27
• Price Target Upside: 44.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.31
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $276.48M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $65.00 ▲(21.68% Upside)

MP Materials' overall stock score is driven by strong strategic initiatives and partnerships, as highlighted in the earnings call and corporate events. However, financial performance and valuation concerns weigh down the score, with profitability and cash flow challenges needing resolution. The technical analysis suggests mixed momentum, adding to the cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

This partnership enhances MP Materials' global footprint and aligns with national security interests, ensuring a stable supply chain and expanding market reach.

Production Growth

Record production levels indicate strong operational capabilities and market demand, positioning MP Materials for sustained growth in the rare earth market.

Government Support

Increased government involvement in critical minerals supports MP Materials' strategic importance and may lead to favorable policies and funding opportunities.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Persistent profitability issues and negative cash flows highlight operational inefficiencies, potentially impacting long-term financial stability and growth.

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue growth and profitability suggests market or operational challenges, requiring strategic adjustments to sustain future growth.

Heavy Rare Earth Scarcity

Scarcity of key materials could limit production capabilities and increase costs, affecting MP Materials' ability to meet market demand and expand operations.

MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MP Materials (MP) is a leading producer of rare earth materials in North America, primarily focused on the mining and processing of rare earth elements that are essential for various high-tech applications. The company operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility in California, which is the only active rare earth mining and processing site in the United States. MP Materials plays a crucial role in the supply chain for industries such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and consumer electronics, where rare earth elements are vital components in magnets, batteries, and other advanced materials.

How the Company Makes Money

MP Materials generates revenue primarily through the sale of processed rare earth materials, including neodymium, praseodymium, and other rare earth oxides. The company operates on a cost-plus pricing model, allowing it to set prices based on production costs plus a margin. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major customers in the automotive and electronics sectors, as well as spot market sales. Strategic partnerships with companies in the clean technology and electric vehicle industries also contribute to its earnings, as the demand for rare earth materials continues to grow. Additionally, MP Materials benefits from government initiatives aimed at reducing reliance on foreign sources of rare earth elements, further enhancing its market position and revenue potential.

MP Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MP Materials faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and profitability metrics. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but negative returns on equity are concerning. Cash flow issues persist, highlighting the need for improved operational efficiency and cost management.

Income Statement

MP Materials has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative trend in recent periods. The gross profit margin has turned negative, indicating cost pressures or pricing challenges. Net profit margin has also deteriorated, reflecting operational inefficiencies or increased expenses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, highlighting profitability issues. Overall, the income statement shows significant challenges in maintaining profitability and revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting a conservative leverage position. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is stable, showing a solid capital structure. Despite the low leverage, the negative ROE is a concern for long-term value creation.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is negative, indicating challenges in generating cash from core operations. Free cash flow has improved, but remains negative, suggesting ongoing capital expenditure or operational inefficiencies. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some ability to convert earnings into cash. However, the overall cash flow position reflects financial strain and the need for improved cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	232.74M	203.85M	253.44M	527.51M	331.95M	134.31M
Gross Profit	-37.54M	-66.79M	105.02M	416.94M	231.32M	63.58M
EBITDA	-47.16M	7.72M	94.04M	365.29M	193.48M	-27.52M
Net Income	-117.64M	-65.42M	24.31M	289.00M	135.04M	-21.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.80B	2.33B	2.34B	2.24B	1.89B	1.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.94B	850.87M	997.84M	1.18B	1.18B	519.65M
Total Debt	997.27M	914.53M	688.81M	678.46M	691.82M	70.82M
Total Liabilities	1.42B	1.28B	970.67M	925.15M	880.93M	220.41M
Stockholders Equity	2.38B	1.05B	1.37B	1.31B	1.01B	853.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-230.04M	-173.07M	-199.20M	16.92M	-21.90M	-19.09M
Operating Cash Flow	-78.42M	13.35M	62.70M	343.51M	101.97M	3.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-300.71M	10.06M	68.70M	-1.36B	-119.36M	-22.37M
Financing Cash Flow	1.24B	-4.79M	-9.92M	-24.19M	666.11M	521.96M

MP Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 53.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 53.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.54, below the 50-day MA of 64.49, and above the 200-day MA of 48.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MP.

MP Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTRN	69 Neutral	$2.61B	137.24	2.08%	0.44%	3.93%	-73.94%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
MP	61 Neutral	$9.47B	-74.10	-6.83%	―	26.44%	-95.87%
GSM	55 Neutral	$836.08M	-6.46	-16.00%	1.23%	-16.89%	-403.77%
TMC	42 Neutral	$2.84B	-8.87	―	―	―	-111.94%
IPX	35 Underperform	$1.10B	-26.08	-49.09%	―	―	-18.77%

MP Materials Corporate Events

MP Materials Announces Joint Venture for Rare Earth Refinery

On November 19, 2025, MP Materials announced a strategic joint venture with the U.S. Department of War and Maaden, Saudi Arabia’s flagship mining company, to develop a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia. This initiative is part of a historic cooperation framework between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia aimed at diversifying the global supply chain for critical minerals. The joint venture will leverage Saudi Arabia’s resources and infrastructure to produce rare earth oxides, supporting U.S. and Saudi manufacturing and defense sectors. The agreement underscores MP Materials’ role as a national champion and aligns with U.S. economic and national security interests, while also expanding MP’s global footprint and shareholder value.

MP Materials Approves Performance-Based Stock Units for Executives

On October 13, 2025, MP Materials Corp.’s Compensation Committee approved a one-time grant of restricted stock units with performance conditions for its executive officers, based on milestones from agreements with the U.S. Department of War and other operational objectives. These performance-based stock units will vest over a five-year period, contingent on achieving specific production goals at the company’s facilities, with a significant focus on rare earth elements refinement and magnet production. The vesting is also subject to the continued service of the executive officers, with target values for these awards set for key executives including James H. Litinsky.