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MP Materials (MP)
NYSE:MP
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MP Materials (MP) AI Stock Analysis

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MP

MP Materials

(NYSE:MP)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$68.00
▲(10.57%Upside)
The overall score reflects the financial challenges and negative valuation metrics, offset partially by strong technical indicators and strategic advancements highlighted in the earnings call. Positive corporate events further enhance the long-term outlook despite current financial headwinds.
Positive Factors
Business Transformation
MP Materials' public-private partnership with the DoD has materially transformed the company's business model for the next 10+ years.
Commercial Opportunity
The commercial deal to provide Apple with recycled permanent magnets in the US significantly enhances MP Materials' business prospects.
Negative Factors
Market Pricing Limitation
Profitability will be somewhat capped over the next two years as NdPr pricing is not expected to exceed $110/kg and there is minimal uplift from Apple's offtake.
Project Execution Risk
The spotlight is now on project execution, which is the biggest risk to the story.

MP Materials (MP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMP Materials Corp. owns and operates rare earth mining and processing facilities. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine located in the Western Hemisphere. The company holds the mineral rights to the Mountain Pass mine and surrounding areas, as well as intellectual property rights related to the processing and development of rare earth minerals. It offers cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, praseodymium, and samarium. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
How the Company Makes MoneyMP Materials generates revenue through the extraction, processing, and sale of rare earth materials. The primary revenue stream comes from selling rare earth oxide concentrates, which are essential components in the manufacturing of high-performance magnets. These magnets are crucial for various industries, including automotive, renewable energy, and electronics. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers who require a stable and reliable source of rare earth materials. Furthermore, MP Materials is actively working on vertically integrating its operations to further enhance profitability by controlling more stages of the supply chain, from mining to the production of rare earth magnets.

MP Materials Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
REO Production Volume
REO Production Volume
Measures the total output of rare earth oxides, indicating the company’s production efficiency and capacity to meet market demand.
Chart InsightsMP Materials' REO production volume has shown volatility, with a notable surge in Q3 2024. This aligns with strategic shifts highlighted in their earnings call, where they emphasized increased domestic production and halted exports to China due to geopolitical tensions. Despite challenges like reduced EBITDA, the company is focusing on expanding its U.S. supply chain, evidenced by a significant rise in NdPr sales and new partnerships. This strategic pivot could bolster long-term growth, positioning MP Materials as a key player in the domestic rare earth market.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

MP Materials Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 157.86%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed sentiment. While there were significant achievements in production and strategic positioning, challenges such as halted shipments to China and declines in EBITDA and EPS were noted. However, the company's position as a national leader and its engagement with government and industry partners suggests a positive long-term outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record NdPr Oxide Production
Achieved record NdPr oxide production of 563 metric tons, a 36% sequential increase from the previous quarter.
Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue increased by 25% year-over-year, driven by a 246% increase in NdPr sales volumes.
Magnetics Division Milestone
Began initial on-spec metal production for General Motors, marking a significant milestone as the first NdPr metal production at scale in the U.S.
Strategic National Positioning
Positioned as America's national champion in rare earth magnetics, with increased engagement from both government and industry.
Magnetic Division Performance
Magnetics Division recorded $5.2 million in revenue and turned EBITDA positive in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA declined $1.5 million year-over-year to negative $2.7 million, driven by the transition to producing separated products.
Challenges in China
Halted shipments of rare earth concentrate to China due to geopolitical tensions, impacting the supply chain strategy.
Adjusted Diluted EPS Decline
Adjusted diluted EPS fell from negative $0.04 a year ago to negative $0.12 this year, primarily due to higher interest expense and depreciation.
Company Guidance
During the MP Materials First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance on its recent strategic and operational advancements. MP Materials reported a record production of NdPr oxide at 563 metric tons, a 36% sequential increase, and achieved its second highest quarterly production of REO. The company emphasized the geopolitical importance of establishing a domestic rare earth supply chain due to China's recent tariffs and export restrictions. MP Materials halted shipments of rare earth concentrate to China, focusing instead on non-Chinese markets like Japan and Korea. They also recorded $5.2 million in revenue from initial metal production for General Motors, marking a significant milestone for domestic NdPr metal production. The company highlighted a 25% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenue, driven by a 246% rise in NdPr sales volumes, despite an adjusted EBITDA decline of $1.5 million to negative $2.7 million. MP Materials is actively discussing partnerships with major commercial and government stakeholders to accelerate its mission, leveraging its vertically integrated model to enhance the U.S. rare earth magnetic supply chain.

MP Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary
MP Materials is facing financial challenges with declining revenues and negative profitability metrics. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but negative cash flow trends highlight liquidity concerns.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
MP Materials' TTM revenue has declined compared to previous years, with an evident drop in profitability marked by negative EBIT and net income margins. The company is facing challenges in maintaining its revenue growth and profitability, which is evident from the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company maintains a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent leverage management. However, the return on equity has turned negative due to losses, impacting overall shareholder value. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting asset financing primarily through equity.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
MP Materials is experiencing negative operating and free cash flows, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has weakened, reflecting inefficiencies in converting earnings to cash.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue203.85M253.44M527.51M331.95M134.31M
Gross Profit-66.79M105.02M416.94M231.32M63.58M
EBITDA7.72M94.04M365.29M193.48M-27.52M
Net Income-65.42M24.31M289.00M135.04M-21.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.33B2.34B2.24B1.89B1.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments850.87M997.84M1.18B1.18B519.65M
Total Debt914.53M688.81M678.44M691.82M70.82M
Total Liabilities1.28B970.67M925.15M880.93M220.41M
Stockholders Equity1.05B1.37B1.31B1.01B853.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-173.07M-199.20M16.92M-21.90M-19.09M
Operating Cash Flow13.35M62.70M343.51M101.97M3.28M
Investing Cash Flow10.06M68.70M-1.36B-119.36M-22.37M
Financing Cash Flow-4.79M-9.92M-24.19M666.11M521.96M

MP Materials Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price61.50
Price Trends
50DMA
37.81
Positive
100DMA
31.13
Positive
200DMA
25.71
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
7.51
Positive
RSI
70.87
Negative
STOCH
49.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 61.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.69, above the 50-day MA of 37.81, and above the 200-day MA of 25.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 70.87 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MP.

MP Materials Risk Analysis

MP Materials disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MP Materials reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
A recent decision of the Delaware Court of Chancery in Garfield v. Boxed, Inc. may create uncertainty regarding the validity of some of our authorized and issued shares of common stock. Q4, 2022
2.
Increased scrutiny regarding our sustainability and ESG practices could impact our reputation and our stock price. Q4, 2022

MP Materials Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$2.18B137.581.79%0.52%5.55%-79.38%
64
Neutral
$10.67B-9.62%4.63%-3189.81%
52
Neutral
$837.95M27.86-7.29%1.28%-4.98%-192.96%
44
Neutral
AU$1.45B-6.08-41.46%4.25%-2.94%-41.86%
42
Neutral
$2.65B-667.42%-3.49%
35
Underperform
$1.35B-40.55%-15.85%
$1.06B13.8253.85%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MP
MP Materials
61.50
50.33
450.58%
MTRN
Materion
105.30
-1.60
-1.50%
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.23
-0.55
-11.51%
TMC
TMC the metals company Inc.
5.94
4.91
476.70%
IPX
Iperionx Ltd. ADR
38.98
23.00
143.93%
USAR
USA Rare Earth
12.71
2.04
19.12%

MP Materials Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
MP Materials Completes $724.2 Million Stock Offering
Positive
Jul 18, 2025

On July 16, 2025, MP Materials Corp. announced an upsized underwritten public offering of 11,818,181 shares of common stock at $55.00 per share, with net proceeds expected to be approximately $724.2 million. The offering, which closed on July 18, 2025, aims to accelerate and expand the company’s operations, including the development of the 10X Facility, and pursue strategic growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
MP Materials Secures $500M Supply Deal with Apple
Positive
Jul 15, 2025

On July 15, 2025, MP Materials announced a $500 million long-term supply agreement with Apple Inc. to develop, manufacture, and supply magnets from recycled rare earth materials at its Independence facility in Texas. This agreement, which includes a $200 million prepayment from Apple, aims to support U.S. manufacturing and circular supply chains by sourcing 100% recycled rare earth magnets domestically. The collaboration will also involve the construction of a commercial-scale recycling line at Mountain Pass, California, and the expansion of MP Materials’ Fort Worth magnetics facility. This partnership is expected to enhance MP Materials’ vertical integration and supply chain resilience, while advancing sustainable production practices in the rare earth industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
MP Materials Partners with U.S. Defense for Supply Chain
Positive
Jul 10, 2025

On July 9, 2025, MP Materials announced a significant partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense to enhance the domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, reducing foreign dependency. This agreement includes a 10-year NdPr price floor commitment and a 10-year magnet offtake agreement, positioning MP Materials as a key player in the industry. The partnership involves constructing a new magnet manufacturing facility, expanding rare earth separation capabilities, and a multibillion-dollar investment from the Department of Defense, which will become the company’s largest shareholder. This strategic move aims to secure critical supply chains and strengthen industrial resilience, with implications for stakeholders in defense and commercial sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MP Materials Elects Directors and Approves Executive Compensation
Neutral
Jun 11, 2025

On June 10, 2025, MP Materials Corp. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where three Class II directors were elected to serve until 2028. The stockholders also approved the compensation for the company’s executive officers and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 19, 2025