Mp Materials Corp (MP)
NYSE:MP
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MP Materials
(NYSE:MP)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$58.00
▼(-4.90% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by weak current fundamentals—ongoing losses and especially negative operating/free cash flow—partially offset by a strong balance sheet with very low leverage and substantial cash. Technicals are supportive with the price above key moving averages and positive MACD. The latest earnings call adds confidence via strong NdPr operational momentum and a clear ramp plan, though large near-term CapEx and timing/commissioning risks remain. Valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity and low leverage
A $1.7B cash/short-term investment balance provides a durable financial buffer that materially lowers refinancing risk while the business scales. With negative operating cash flow today, this liquidity funds near-term CapEx and commissioning timelines, allowing execution focus rather than urgent financing.
Negative Factors
Negative operating and free cash flow
Persistently negative operating cash flow and very large negative free cash flow indicate the business is not yet self-funding. Over a multi-quarter horizon this heightens reliance on the cash balance or external financing to sustain ramp and CapEx, increasing financial risk if execution or margins slip.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity and low leverage
A $1.7B cash/short-term investment balance provides a durable financial buffer that materially lowers refinancing risk while the business scales. With negative operating cash flow today, this liquidity funds near-term CapEx and commissioning timelines, allowing execution focus rather than urgent financing.
Read all positive factors
MP Materials Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
REO Production Volume
Measures the total output of rare earth oxides, indicating the company’s production efficiency and capacity to meet market demand.
Measures the total output of rare earth oxides, indicating the company’s production efficiency and capacity to meet market demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMP Materials (MP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.06B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth60.93%
EPS Growth34.20%
CountryUS
Employees804
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.42
Shares Outstanding178,022,200
10 Day Avg. Volume7,810,679
30 Day Avg. Volume6,310,288
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio8.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.59
Price to Sales (P/S)31.20
P/FCF Ratio-26.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue29.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit121.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda544.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$79.63Price Target Upside30.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$455.09M
MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MP Materials Corp. owns and operates rare earth mining and processing facilities. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine located in the Western Hemisphere. The company holds the mineral rights to the Mountain Pass mine and surround...
How the Company Makes Money
MP Materials makes money primarily by selling rare earth products produced from ore mined at its Mountain Pass site. Its revenue model is centered on (1) producing and selling rare earth concentrate and/or separated rare earth oxides (including ke...
MP Materials Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights robust operational momentum—record NdPr production and sales, stronger materials revenue (about 2x YOY), improved consolidated results (revenue +28% sequential, EPS turned positive), significant cash on hand ($1.7B), and clear progress on magnetics and heavy rare earth separation. Near-term headwinds include a planned Q2 production dip from maintenance/commissioning, diminishing PPA income from stockpiles, lumpiness in magnetics revenue as precursor prepayments roll off and PPAP validation continues, and substantial near-term CapEx and investments that press cash deployment. Overall, the company shows strong execution and strategic positioning with manageable, anticipated operational and timing risks.Positive Updates
Record NdPr Oxide Production
Produced a record 917 metric tons of NdPr oxide, up 63% year-over-year and 28% sequentially.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Production Dip Expected
A single-digit quarter-over-quarter decline in NdPr oxide production is expected in Q2 due to semiannual maintenance and installation/commissioning activities, with material sequential growth targeted for Q3.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record NdPr Oxide Production
Produced a record 917 metric tons of NdPr oxide, up 63% year-over-year and 28% sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated a detailed operational and financial roadmap for 2026: Q1 production and sales metrics were strong (NdPr oxide produced 917 metric tons, +63% YoY and +28% QoQ; NdPr oxide sales 1,006 t, >2x prior-year and +79% vs Q4; concentrate ~13,000 t REO, +6% YoY), materials revenue and PPA income totaled $114.5M with materials adjusted EBITDA $36.7M, consolidated revenue/PPA $132.9M and consolidated adjusted EBITDA $36.6M, magnetics revenue was $21.1M with $9.6M segment adjusted EBITDA, and inventory stood at ~815 t NdPr oxide/metal on hand; guidance items include a single-digit QoQ decline in NdPr oxide production in Q2 followed by significant sequential growth in Q3 and a target 500 t/month run-rate by year-end, heavy rare earth separation circuit to begin commissioning in Q2 with terbium and dysprosium later this year, chlor‑alkali recommissioning to start shortly, expected Q2 realized NdPr pricing in the low‑to‑mid $90s/kg (with the $110/kg PPA floor mostly offsetting differences and little expected PPA income from stockpiled concentrate going forward), remaining magnetic precursor prepaid revenue of ~$62M to be earned over the next four quarters, Apple prepayments totaling $72M (including $32M in Feb), Q1 CapEx $77.4M (~60% magnetics) with FY CapEx expected $500–600M and Q2 CapEx stepping up, and a cash/short‑term investment balance of $1.7B—while Independence’s first‑phase ramp (1,000 t nameplate) and 10x/Independence expansions (targeting up to 3,000 t annual magnet capacity and commercial magnet ramps) are being advanced alongside ongoing PPAP/customer validations and modest initial magnet revenue in 2026.MP Materials Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 347.57M | 275.46M | 203.85M | 253.44M | 527.51M | 331.95M |
| Gross Profit | 83.98M | -6.60M | -66.79M | 105.02M | 416.94M | 231.32M |
| EBITDA | 18.77M | 4.46M | 7.72M | 94.04M | 365.29M | 193.48M |
| Net Income | -71.19M | -85.87M | -65.42M | 24.31M | 289.00M | 135.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.84B | 4.01B | 2.33B | 2.34B | 2.24B | 1.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.74B | 1.83B | 850.87M | 997.84M | 1.18B | 1.18B |
| Total Debt | 1.05B | 1.04B | 914.53M | 688.81M | 678.46M | 691.82M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.46B | 1.62B | 1.28B | 970.67M | 925.15M | 880.93M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.38B | 2.39B | 1.05B | 1.37B | 1.31B | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -313.75M | -328.13M | -173.07M | -199.20M | 16.92M | -21.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -94.47M | -155.75M | 13.35M | 62.70M | 343.51M | 101.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -450.16M | -206.05M | 10.06M | 68.70M | -1.36B | -119.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.23B | 1.25B | -4.79M | -9.92M | -24.19M | 666.11M |
MP Materials Technical Analysis
Negative
60.99
Price Trends
59.14
Negative
59.88
Negative
63.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Positive
38.18
Neutral
7.40
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 60.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.36, above the 50-day MA of 59.14, and below the 200-day MA of 63.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.40 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MP.
MP Materials Risk Analysis
MP Materials disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MP Materials reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
MP Materials Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $4.21B | 39.95 | 8.17% | 0.43% | 11.39% | 651.28% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $10.06B | -269.02 | -3.49% | ― | 60.93% | 34.20% | |
58 Neutral | $4.92B | -11.10 | -76.51% | ― | ― | -493.47% | |
52 Neutral | $1.13B | -0.87 | -35.30% | ― | ― | -48.46% | |
49 Neutral | $2.21B | -18.24 | 6542.67% | ― | ― | -243.05% | |
48 Neutral | $738.10M | -27.50 | -15.03% | 1.17% | -11.77% | -85.76% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MP
MP Materials
56.50
37.00
189.74%
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IPX
Iperionx Ltd. ADR
34.70
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USAR
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22.57
13.36
145.06%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.