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MP Materials
(NYSE:MP)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$58.00
▲(40.44% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
The score is held back primarily by weak recent financial performance—especially negative operating/free cash flow and loss-making profitability—despite a supportive balance sheet. Offsetting that, the earnings call signaled meaningful operational and commercial progress (production/sales growth, magnetics ramp, and long-term offtake) with strong liquidity, while technicals remain mixed (short-term improvement but still below key longer-term moving averages).
Positive Factors
NdPr Production and Sales Growth
Sustained production and sales growth indicates improving throughput and customer demand. Higher volumes can strengthen operating leverage and support revenue expansion as Mountain Pass operations continue moving toward greater scale.
Negative Factors
Weak Recent Profitability
Recent losses and sharp revenue contraction show that the business has not yet converted its asset base into consistent earnings. Persistently weak pricing or cost performance could delay profitability even if production volumes continue improving.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
NdPr Production and Sales Growth
Sustained production and sales growth indicates improving throughput and customer demand. Higher volumes can strengthen operating leverage and support revenue expansion as Mountain Pass operations continue moving toward greater scale.
Read all positive factors
MP Materials Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
REO Production Volume
Measures the total output of rare earth oxides, indicating the company’s production efficiency and capacity to meet market demand.
Measures the total output of rare earth oxides, indicating the company’s production efficiency and capacity to meet market demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMP Materials (MP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth71.92%
EPS Growth44.39%
CountryUS
Employees998
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.34
Shares Outstanding178,101,600
10 Day Avg. Volume5,409,710
30 Day Avg. Volume4,743,562
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio8.23
Price to Book (P/B)3.59
Price to Sales (P/S)38.29
P/FCF Ratio-26.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$73.40Price Target Upside77.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$447.23M
MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MP Materials Corp. manages and operates facilities dedicated to the extraction and refinement of rare earth elements. The company's primary asset is the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine, a key operation situated within the Western Hemisphere. MP Mate...
How the Company Makes Money
MP Materials makes money primarily by selling rare earth products produced from its Mountain Pass operations. Historically, its major revenue stream has been the sale of rare earth concentrate (a mixed rare earth product) produced from mined ore; ...
MP Materials Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed substantial operational and commercial progress (strong YoY production and sales growth, doubling of revenue, new long‑term offtake, magnetics qualification progress, and a fortified balance sheet) alongside expected start‑up and transitional challenges (planned downtime, start‑up costs in Magnetics, localized reliability issues, modest near‑term PPA income declines, and elevated CapEx). On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights as the company scales production, expands product breadth, secures long‑term contracts, and maintains robust liquidity.Positive Updates
Strong NdPr Production Growth
Produced 840 metric tons of NdPr in Q2 2026, a 41% year-over-year increase, and on track for Q3 production to exceed 1,000 metric tons as throughput improves.
Negative Updates
Planned Shutdown and Extended Downtime Impact
An extended planned semi-annual plant shutdown in April and unrelated projects lengthened downtime, contributing to operational disruption and tempering quarter-to-quarter performance and costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong NdPr Production Growth
Produced 840 metric tons of NdPr in Q2 2026, a 41% year-over-year increase, and on track for Q3 production to exceed 1,000 metric tons as throughput improves.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: for Q3 the company expects realized NdPr oxide pricing in the high $90s/kg with PPA income of roughly $10/kg (market ~ $110/kg in early Q3), minimal PPA from stockpiled material, and flattish Materials sales volumes; management expects Q3 NdPr production to exceed 1,000 metric tons and reported ~650 metric tons of NdPr oxide/metal on hand or in transit as of June 30. Initial commercial magnet deliveries are expected to begin in Q4 with a modest ramp thereafter, ~$46 million of prepaid magnetic‑precursor revenue will be recognized over the next 3–4 quarters, Dy/Tb shipments are targeted later this year with samarium production planned in 2028, and the recently announced gadolinium offtake is a multi‑year, nine‑figure deal. Financial and capital guidance: Q2 CapEx was $230.3 million (over 60% to Magnetics), YTD CapEx $308 million (including ~$80 million for the 10X site), full‑year CapEx is expected to be $500–600 million, and the company finished the quarter with $1.45 billion of cash and short‑term investments.MP Materials Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
23
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 305.38M | 224.44M | 203.85M | 253.44M | 527.51M | 331.95M |
| Gross Profit | -13.93M | -57.62M | -66.79M | 105.02M | 416.94M | 231.32M |
| EBITDA | 61.77M | 2.97M | 7.72M | 94.04M | 365.29M | 193.48M |
| Net Income | -60.62M | -85.87M | -65.42M | 24.31M | 289.00M | 135.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.73B | 4.01B | 2.33B | 2.34B | 2.24B | 1.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.45B | 1.83B | 850.87M | 997.84M | 1.18B | 1.18B |
| Total Debt | 934.58M | 1.04B | 914.53M | 688.81M | 678.46M | 691.82M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.77B | 1.62B | 1.28B | 970.67M | 925.15M | 880.93M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.96B | 2.39B | 1.05B | 1.37B | 1.31B | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -504.58M | -328.13M | -173.07M | -199.20M | 16.92M | -21.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -83.96M | -155.75M | 13.35M | 62.70M | 343.51M | 101.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -914.79M | -206.05M | 10.06M | 68.70M | -1.36B | -119.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.17B | 1.25B | -4.79M | -9.92M | -24.19M | 666.11M |
MP Materials Technical Analysis
Positive
41.30
Price Trends
51.64
Positive
56.39
Positive
57.80
Negative
Market Momentum
2.04
Negative
61.50
Neutral
78.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.43, below the 50-day MA of 51.64, and below the 200-day MA of 57.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MP.
MP Materials Risk Analysis
MP Materials disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MP Materials reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MP Materials Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $6.00B | 66.31 | 9.41% | 0.23% | 21.56% | 454.16% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | $10.42B | -171.18 | -2.66% | ― | 71.92% | 44.39% | |
47 Neutral | $331.49M | -4.38 | -63.85% | ― | 776.51% | 38.07% | |
47 Neutral | $4.79B | -8.03 | -23.40% | ― | ― | -270.60% | |
46 Neutral | $907.33M | -14.38 | -35.30% | ― | ― | -48.46% | |
45 Neutral | $700.27M | -6.70 | -21.43% | ― | ― | -265.11% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MP
MP Materials
56.67
-12.62
-18.21%
MTRN
Materion
264.03
152.10
135.89%
NB
NioCorp Developments
4.53
0.81
21.77%
ABAT
American Battery Technology
2.35
>-0.01
-0.42%
IPX
Iperionx Ltd. ADR
22.25
-18.80
-45.80%
USAR
USA Rare Earth
18.51
3.67
24.73%
MP Materials Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MP Materials Shareholders Affirm Directors, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
On June 9, 2026, MP Materials held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders elected Arnold W. Donald and Randall J. Weisenburger as Class III directors to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, while the remaining directors continued t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.