MP Materials (MP)
NYSE:MP
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MP Materials
(NYSE:MP)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
▼(-3.48% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is held back primarily by weak recent financial performance (losses and sharply negative 2025 cash flow) and bearish technical momentum (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call provides an offset with strong operational ramp progress and solid liquidity, but high capex and execution/timing risks keep the overall profile below average.
Positive Factors
Large-scale REO production and market position
Sustained, large-scale REO output anchors durable competitive scale in the rare-earth supply chain, strengthening bargaining power with customers and suppliers, enabling long-term offtakes and strategic partnerships, and supporting resilience versus smaller competitors amid steady secular demand.
Negative Factors
Deteriorated profitability and earnings volatility
A shift from historical profitability to recent losses signals heightened earnings cyclicality tied to commodity pricing and mix. Persistent margin volatility undermines reinvestment capacity, makes long-term planning harder, and increases the risk that future downturns erode equity and credit metrics.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large-scale REO production and market position
Sustained, large-scale REO output anchors durable competitive scale in the rare-earth supply chain, strengthening bargaining power with customers and suppliers, enabling long-term offtakes and strategic partnerships, and supporting resilience versus smaller competitors amid steady secular demand.
Read all positive factors
MP Materials (MP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.84B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth26.44%
EPS Growth-95.87%
CountryUS
Employees804
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding177,667,450
10 Day Avg. Volume6,039,238
30 Day Avg. Volume5,657,011
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio8.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.59
Price to Sales (P/S)31.20
P/FCF Ratio-26.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue31.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit548.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.60K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$78.57Price Target Upside57.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$519.38M
MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MP Materials Corp. owns and operates rare earth mining and processing facilities. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine located in the Western Hemisphere. The company holds the mineral rights to the Mountain Pass mine and surround...
How the Company Makes Money
MP Materials makes money primarily by selling rare earth products produced from ore mined at its Mountain Pass site. Its revenue model is centered on (1) producing and selling rare earth concentrate and/or separated rare earth oxides (including ke...
MP Materials Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
REO Production Volume
Measures the total output of rare earth oxides, indicating the company’s production efficiency and capacity to meet market demand.
Measures the total output of rare earth oxides, indicating the company’s production efficiency and capacity to meet market demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMP Materials Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive outlook driven by rapid operational progress (significant NdPr oxide ramp, record REO production, first commercial-scale magnet production, strategic offtakes, and improved profitability supported by PPA income). Management acknowledged near-term operational headwinds — maintenance-related slowdowns, channel inventory buildup, the revenue impact from eliminating third-party concentrate sales, and timing lags in price realization — but framed these as manageable execution items with no 'showstoppers.' Strong liquidity, large incentivized site selection for 10X, and technical achievements (notably reducing heavy-rare-earth content by ~60%) underpin confidence in long-term growth. Balancing the significant positive operational and commercial milestones against near-term timing, inventory and project execution risks, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
NdPr Oxide Production Ramp
NdPr oxide production increased materially to approximately 2,599 metric tons in 2025 (management described this as a doubling year-over-year and also cited a ~74% YoY increase in the quarter), exiting the year at an annualized run rate of nearly 4,000 metric tons separated NdPr oxide and targeting a steady-state run rate of ~1,500 metric tons per quarter.
Negative Updates
Reported Revenue Impact from Ceased Third-Party Concentrate Sales
Cessation of third-party concentrate sales in mid-2025 reduced reported Materials segment revenue and contributed to a modest year-over-year decline in consolidated quarterly revenue despite stronger oxide volumes and PPA income.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
NdPr Oxide Production Ramp
NdPr oxide production increased materially to approximately 2,599 metric tons in 2025 (management described this as a doubling year-over-year and also cited a ~74% YoY increase in the quarter), exiting the year at an annualized run rate of nearly 4,000 metric tons separated NdPr oxide and targeting a steady-state run rate of ~1,500 metric tons per quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: 2026 capital expenditures are expected to be $500–$600 million (mostly to accelerate 10X), cash on hand exceeds $1.8 billion and other receivables are over $131 million (including >$70 million from the U.S. government and a $32 million Apple progress payment); deferred revenue of ~$74 million is expected to be recognized over the next four quarters at similar EBITDA margins. Operationally, Mountain Pass exited 2025 at an annualized separated NdPr oxide run‑rate near 4,000 t, produced 2,599 t of NdPr oxide in 2025 (output doubled year‑over‑year) with oxide sales up ~75% to nearly 2,000 t, total REO >50,000 t (up ~12% YoY), and the company reiterated a target steady‑state midstream rate of ~1,500 t/quarter (≈500 t/month, ~6,000 tpa) by year‑end; management expects >20% sequential production growth in Q1, a midyear start to commissioning the heavy rare earth separation circuit with dysprosium/terbium production late in the year, and chlor‑alkali first‑train commissioning in Q2. Financially, PPA income was $51 million in the quarter (reflecting the $110/kg floor for sold products, with PPA on stockpiles priced to market and collectible at management’s discretion), Materials adjusted EBITDA was $40.3 million in Q4, Magnetics adjusted EBITDA was $8.4 million in Q4 ($26.4 million for the year), and initial magnet deliveries and revenue from Independence are expected in H2 2026.MP Materials Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 275.46M | 203.85M | 253.44M | 527.51M | 331.95M |
| Gross Profit | -6.60M | -66.79M | 105.02M | 416.94M | 231.32M |
| EBITDA | 4.46M | 7.72M | 94.04M | 365.29M | 193.48M |
| Net Income | -85.87M | -65.42M | 24.31M | 289.00M | 135.04M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.01B | 2.33B | 2.34B | 2.24B | 1.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.83B | 850.87M | 997.84M | 1.18B | 1.18B |
| Total Debt | 1.04B | 914.53M | 688.81M | 678.46M | 691.82M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.62B | 1.28B | 970.67M | 925.15M | 880.93M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.39B | 1.05B | 1.37B | 1.31B | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -328.13M | -173.07M | -199.20M | 16.92M | -21.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -155.75M | 13.35M | 62.70M | 343.51M | 101.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -206.05M | 10.06M | 68.70M | -1.36B | -119.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.25B | -4.79M | -9.92M | -24.19M | 666.11M |
MP Materials Technical Analysis
Negative
49.73
Price Trends
58.40
Negative
58.69
Negative
60.75
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.93
Positive
40.19
Neutral
38.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 49.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.76, below the 50-day MA of 58.40, and below the 200-day MA of 60.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.93 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MP.
MP Materials Risk Analysis
MP Materials disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MP Materials reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MP Materials Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $3.10B | 34.48 | 8.14% | 0.43% | 3.93% | -73.94% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
50 Neutral | $760.52M | -5.12 | -22.22% | 1.17% | -16.89% | -403.77% | |
49 Neutral | $3.47B | -3.92 | -49.67% | ― | ― | ― | |
48 Neutral | $8.84B | -100.09 | -5.04% | ― | 26.44% | -95.87% | |
44 Neutral | $1.99B | -7.42 | 9999.00% | ― | ― | -111.94% | |
40 Underperform | $887.26M | -0.87 | -35.30% | ― | ― | -18.77% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MP
MP Materials
49.73
25.74
107.29%
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IPX
Iperionx Ltd. ADR
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USAR
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15.92
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68.11%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.