MP Materials (MP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 18.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.39
• Revenue Growth: 39.42%
• EPS Growth: -172.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 804
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 177,098,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 27,535,738
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 18,301,190
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.43
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 23.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -99.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -198.44
• 1Y Price Target: $81.12
• Price Target Upside: 16.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $72.00 ▲(3.15% Upside)

MP Materials' overall score is driven by significant financial challenges and valuation concerns, offset by positive strategic developments highlighted in the earnings call. The company's technical indicators suggest mixed market sentiment, while strategic partnerships offer a promising long-term outlook.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

The partnerships with DoD and Apple provide substantial financial backing and long-term contracts, enhancing MP Materials' market position and supply chain stability, crucial for sustainable growth.

Revenue Growth

Significant revenue growth indicates strong demand for MP Materials' products, driven by strategic sales and production increases, supporting long-term financial health and market expansion.

Operational Success

Continued operational success in production enhances MP Materials' ability to meet growing demand, reinforcing its competitive edge in the rare earth materials market.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Persistent profitability issues, reflected in negative margins, could hinder MP Materials' ability to invest in growth and maintain financial stability, posing long-term risks.

Cash Flow Management

Weak cash flow management limits MP Materials' operational flexibility and ability to fund strategic initiatives, potentially affecting future growth and resilience.

Sales Channel Concentration

Concentration of sales channels to strategic partners may reduce market diversification, increasing dependency on a limited customer base and potentially impacting revenue stability.

MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MP Materials Corp. owns and operates rare earth mining and processing facilities. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine located in the Western Hemisphere. The company holds the mineral rights to the Mountain Pass mine and surrounding areas, as well as intellectual property rights related to the processing and development of rare earth minerals. It offers cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, praseodymium, and samarium. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

How the Company Makes Money

MP Materials generates revenue primarily through the sale of processed rare earth materials, including neodymium, praseodymium, and other rare earth oxides. The company operates on a cost-plus pricing model, allowing it to set prices based on production costs plus a margin. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major customers in the automotive and electronics sectors, as well as spot market sales. Strategic partnerships with companies in the clean technology and electric vehicle industries also contribute to its earnings, as the demand for rare earth materials continues to grow. Additionally, MP Materials benefits from government initiatives aimed at reducing reliance on foreign sources of rare earth elements, further enhancing its market position and revenue potential.

MP Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MP Materials faces significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow management. Despite some revenue growth, the company struggles with negative margins and cash flows, impacting its financial health. The balance sheet remains relatively stable, but improvements in operational performance are crucial for future stability and growth.

Income Statement

MP Materials has experienced significant volatility in its income statement metrics. The TTM data shows a negative gross profit margin and net profit margin, indicating challenges in profitability. Revenue growth is positive at 12.1% TTM, but the company has struggled with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting operational inefficiencies. The historical trend shows a sharp decline from strong profitability in 2022, highlighting potential risks in maintaining stable earnings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of MP Materials shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.91 TTM, which is manageable but has increased over time. The return on equity is negative, reflecting recent losses, but the equity ratio remains healthy, indicating a solid capital structure. The company needs to address its profitability issues to improve its financial stability.

Cash Flow

MP Materials' cash flow statement reveals challenges with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high due to significant negative free cash flow, indicating cash flow management issues. Although there was some growth in free cash flow, the overall cash flow position remains weak, necessitating improvements in operational efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	242.12M	203.85M	253.44M	527.51M	331.95M	134.31M
Gross Profit	-56.67M	-66.79M	105.02M	416.94M	231.32M	63.58M
EBITDA	-28.29M	7.72M	94.04M	365.29M	193.48M	-27.52M
Net Income	-101.38M	-65.42M	24.31M	289.00M	135.04M	-21.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.34B	2.33B	2.34B	2.24B	1.89B	1.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	753.66M	850.87M	997.84M	1.18B	1.18B	519.65M
Total Debt	916.82M	914.53M	688.81M	678.44M	691.82M	70.82M
Total Liabilities	1.33B	1.28B	970.67M	925.15M	880.93M	220.41M
Stockholders Equity	1.01B	1.05B	1.37B	1.31B	1.01B	853.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-190.78M	-173.07M	-199.20M	16.92M	-21.90M	-19.09M
Operating Cash Flow	-43.22M	13.35M	62.70M	343.51M	101.97M	3.28M
Investing Cash Flow	53.06M	10.06M	68.70M	-1.36B	-119.36M	-22.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-43.89M	-4.79M	-9.92M	-24.19M	666.11M	521.96M

MP Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 69.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 69.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.77, below the 50-day MA of 72.10, and above the 200-day MA of 41.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MP.

MP Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTRN	76 Outperform	$2.71B	170.51	1.79%	0.43%	5.55%	-79.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
GSM	58 Neutral	$959.26M	―	-12.38%	1.12%	-8.59%	-256.43%
MP	56 Neutral	$13.12B	―	-9.57%	―	39.42%	-172.40%
TMC	42 Neutral	$3.41B	―	-364.03%	―	―	-9.91%
IPX	35 Underperform	$1.81B	―	-49.09%	―	―	-18.77%

MP Materials Corporate Events

MP Materials Approves Performance-Based Stock Units for Executives

On October 13, 2025, MP Materials Corp.’s Compensation Committee approved a one-time grant of restricted stock units with performance conditions for its executive officers, based on milestones from agreements with the U.S. Department of War and other operational objectives. These performance-based stock units will vest over a five-year period, contingent on achieving specific production goals at the company’s facilities, with a significant focus on rare earth elements refinement and magnet production. The vesting is also subject to the continued service of the executive officers, with target values for these awards set for key executives including James H. Litinsky.

The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Buy with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.

MP Materials Secures $275 Million Credit Facility

On August 25, 2025, MP Materials Corp. entered into a credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, establishing a 5-year, $275 million revolving credit facility for general corporate purposes. This agreement includes a $200 million letter of credit facility sublimit and features variable interest rates based on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate. The credit agreement imposes several financial covenants and restrictions on MP Materials, including maintaining certain leverage and cash interest expense coverage ratios, and it outlines conditions under which the company must repay borrowings or cash collateralize letters of credit. This financial arrangement is expected to support MP Materials’ operational flexibility and strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Hold with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.

MP Materials Registers Shares for Potential Resale

On August 15, 2025, MP Materials Corp. filed a prospectus supplement with the SEC to register the potential resale of up to 24,521,672 shares of its common stock by the United States Department of Defense. This filing is part of a Registration Rights Agreement and does not involve the actual sale of securities by the selling securityholder, nor will the company receive any proceeds from such sales if they occur.

The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Hold with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.

MP Materials Reports Strong Revenue Growth and Strategic Partnerships

MP Materials Corp., a leading rare earth producer, operates in the mining and manufacturing sector, focusing on extracting and refining rare earth materials and producing advanced magnets. In its latest earnings report, MP Materials announced significant growth in revenue and production, driven by record NdPr production and strategic partnerships. The company reported an 84% increase in revenue to $57.4 million, alongside a 119% rise in NdPr production and a 45% increase in REO production. The Magnetics Segment also contributed significantly with $19.9 million in revenue. Despite a net loss of $30.9 million, the company improved its adjusted EBITDA by 54% year over year. Looking ahead, MP Materials is optimistic about its growth prospects, supported by new partnerships with the U.S. Department of Defense and Apple, which are expected to enhance long-term profitability and position the company for sustained growth in the evolving AI sector.