MP Materials (MP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.88B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 26.44%
• EPS Growth: -95.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 804
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 177,230,480
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,213,982
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,831,084
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 12.77
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 44.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -274.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -218.49
• 1Y Price Target: $76.36
• Price Target Upside: 22.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $70.00 ▲(12.61% Upside)

MP Materials' overall stock score is driven by strong strategic initiatives and partnerships, as highlighted in the earnings call and corporate events. However, financial performance and valuation concerns weigh down the score, with profitability and cash flow challenges needing resolution. The technical analysis suggests mixed momentum, adding to the cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Strategic joint venture expanding global footprint

A JV with the U.S. Department of War and Maaden creates a structural, long‑term production and geopolitical partnership that diversifies MP’s supply chain and expands market access. This ties MP to national security procurement and Saudi feedstock, improving revenue visibility and strategic scale.

Sustained production ramp in key rare earths

Record NdPr output demonstrates operational scalability and stronger throughput at Mountain Pass. Higher, sustained NdPr volumes support long‑term supply to EV and renewable markets, improve unit economics through scale, and underpin the company’s path back to sustained profitability.

Conservative leverage and capital structure

A low debt-to-equity profile reduces refinancing and liquidity risk while funding heavy capex cycles for processing and magnetics. This financial conservatism gives management flexibility to pursue strategic projects without immediate solvency pressure, aiding multi‑quarter execution.

Negative Factors

Deteriorating profitability and margins

Negative gross and net margins indicate structural cost or pricing pressure that erodes the firm’s ability to convert higher volumes into profits. Without sustained margin recovery, large capital projects and partnerships may not translate into shareholder value over the medium term.

Negative operating cash flow and FCF deficits

Persistent negative operating and free cash flows force reliance on external capital, prepayments, or JV funding to cover operations and capex. That dependence raises execution and dilution risk during the multi‑quarter ramp of heavy rare earth circuits and Magnetics commercialization.

Negative return on equity

A negative ROE suggests current investments and operations are not creating shareholder value. Even with strategic projects and partnerships, management must improve operating efficiency and profitability to convert scale and contracts into durable returns over the coming quarters.

MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MP Materials Corp. owns and operates rare earth mining and processing facilities. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine located in the Western Hemisphere. The company holds the mineral rights to the Mountain Pass mine and surrounding areas, as well as intellectual property rights related to the processing and development of rare earth minerals. It offers cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, praseodymium, and samarium. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

How the Company Makes Money

MP Materials generates revenue primarily through the extraction and processing of rare earth elements, which are sold to various industries, including automotive, electronics, and renewable energy sectors. The company operates on a cost-plus pricing model, where it charges customers based on the cost of production plus a margin. Key revenue streams include the sale of neodymium, praseodymium, and other rare earth oxides, which are crucial for manufacturing high-strength magnets used in electric motors and wind turbines. Additionally, MP Materials has formed strategic partnerships with major companies in the electric vehicle and technology sectors, enhancing its market presence and providing a stable customer base. The ongoing demand for clean energy technologies and electric vehicles further supports its revenue growth.

MP Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MP Materials faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and profitability metrics. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but negative returns on equity are concerning. Cash flow issues persist, highlighting the need for improved operational efficiency and cost management.

Income Statement

MP Materials has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative trend in recent periods. The gross profit margin has turned negative, indicating cost pressures or pricing challenges. Net profit margin has also deteriorated, reflecting operational inefficiencies or increased expenses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, highlighting profitability issues. Overall, the income statement shows significant challenges in maintaining profitability and revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting a conservative leverage position. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is stable, showing a solid capital structure. Despite the low leverage, the negative ROE is a concern for long-term value creation.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is negative, indicating challenges in generating cash from core operations. Free cash flow has improved, but remains negative, suggesting ongoing capital expenditure or operational inefficiencies. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some ability to convert earnings into cash. However, the overall cash flow position reflects financial strain and the need for improved cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	232.74M	203.85M	253.44M	527.51M	331.95M	134.31M
Gross Profit	-37.54M	-66.79M	105.02M	416.94M	231.32M	63.58M
EBITDA	-47.16M	7.72M	94.04M	365.29M	193.48M	-27.52M
Net Income	-117.64M	-65.42M	24.31M	289.00M	135.04M	-21.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.80B	2.33B	2.34B	2.24B	1.89B	1.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.94B	850.87M	997.84M	1.18B	1.18B	519.65M
Total Debt	1.03B	914.53M	688.81M	678.46M	691.82M	70.82M
Total Liabilities	1.42B	1.28B	970.67M	925.15M	880.93M	220.41M
Stockholders Equity	2.38B	1.05B	1.37B	1.31B	1.01B	853.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-230.04M	-173.07M	-199.20M	16.92M	-21.90M	-19.09M
Operating Cash Flow	-78.42M	13.35M	62.70M	343.51M	101.97M	3.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-300.71M	10.06M	68.70M	-1.36B	-119.36M	-22.37M
Financing Cash Flow	1.24B	-4.79M	-9.92M	-24.19M	666.11M	521.96M

MP Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 62.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 62.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.70, above the 50-day MA of 59.70, and above the 200-day MA of 53.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MP.

MP Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTRN	69 Neutral	$2.80B	147.52	2.08%	0.43%	3.93%	-73.94%
USAR	62 Neutral	$3.72B	-8.78	-255.91%	―	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
MP	61 Neutral	$11.88B	-88.52	-6.83%	―	26.44%	-95.87%
TMC	57 Neutral	$3.48B	-9.81	―	―	―	-111.94%
GSM	55 Neutral	$912.60M	-6.72	-16.00%	1.17%	-16.89%	-403.77%
IPX	49 Neutral	$1.89B	-44.18	-49.09%	―	―	-18.77%

MP Materials Corporate Events

MP Materials Announces Joint Venture for Rare Earth Refinery

On November 19, 2025, MP Materials announced a strategic joint venture with the U.S. Department of War and Maaden, Saudi Arabia’s flagship mining company, to develop a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia. This initiative is part of a historic cooperation framework between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia aimed at diversifying the global supply chain for critical minerals. The joint venture will leverage Saudi Arabia’s resources and infrastructure to produce rare earth oxides, supporting U.S. and Saudi manufacturing and defense sectors. The agreement underscores MP Materials’ role as a national champion and aligns with U.S. economic and national security interests, while also expanding MP’s global footprint and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Buy with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.