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MP Materials (MP)
NYSE:MP
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MP Materials
(NYSE:MP)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(2.74%Upside)
Positive Factors
Geopolitical Developments
The announced US/China de-escalation may remove the severe constraints China had put on rest of the world with its restriction/export controls on rare earths/permanent magnets.
Government Support
MP was awarded a $35M contract through the U.S. Department of Defense to support the construction of a commercial scale processing facility for heavy rare earth elements at Mountain Pass.
Strategic Partnerships
The collaboration with Ma'aden focuses on establishing a fully vertically integrated, end-to-end rare earth supply chain in Saudi Arabia.
Negative Factors
Export Controls
China's export controls on medium and heavy rare earth elements could limit attempts to build scaled NdFeB magnet production outside of China.
Market Conditions
MP is expected to post negative free cash flow in 2025 and 2026 due to soft NdPr prices caused by an oversupplied market.
Production Challenges
MP's Fort Worth magnet facility's projected output is currently less than 1% of global demand, which may limit the company's near-term attempts to scale significantly.
MP Materials (MP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.45B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth4.63%
EPS Growth-3189.81%
CountryUS
Employees804
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength68
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.12
Shares Outstanding163,456,300
10 Day Avg. Volume11,841,361
30 Day Avg. Volume7,386,307
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)3.27
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio253.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit438.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda98.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.86Price Target Upside-4.59% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMP Materials Corp. owns and operates rare earth mining and processing facilities. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine located in the Western Hemisphere. The company holds the mineral rights to the Mountain Pass mine and surrounding areas, as well as intellectual property rights related to the processing and development of rare earth minerals. It offers cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, praseodymium, and samarium. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
How the Company Makes MoneyMP Materials generates revenue through the extraction, processing, and sale of rare earth materials. The primary revenue stream comes from selling rare earth oxide concentrates, which are essential components in the manufacturing of high-performance magnets. These magnets are crucial for various industries, including automotive, renewable energy, and electronics. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers who require a stable and reliable source of rare earth materials. Furthermore, MP Materials is actively working on vertically integrating its operations to further enhance profitability by controlling more stages of the supply chain, from mining to the production of rare earth magnets.
MP Materials Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
REO Production Volume
Measures the total output of rare earth oxides, indicating the company’s production efficiency and capacity to meet market demand.
Measures the total output of rare earth oxides, indicating the company’s production efficiency and capacity to meet market demand.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataMP Materials Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 22.43%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed sentiment. While there were significant achievements in production and strategic positioning, challenges such as halted shipments to China and declines in EBITDA and EPS were noted. However, the company's position as a national leader and its engagement with government and industry partners suggests a positive long-term outlook.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record NdPr Oxide Production
Achieved record NdPr oxide production of 563 metric tons, a 36% sequential increase from the previous quarter.
Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue increased by 25% year-over-year, driven by a 246% increase in NdPr sales volumes.
Magnetics Division Milestone
Began initial on-spec metal production for General Motors, marking a significant milestone as the first NdPr metal production at scale in the U.S.
Strategic National Positioning
Positioned as America's national champion in rare earth magnetics, with increased engagement from both government and industry.
Magnetic Division Performance
Magnetics Division recorded $5.2 million in revenue and turned EBITDA positive in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA declined $1.5 million year-over-year to negative $2.7 million, driven by the transition to producing separated products.
Challenges in China
Halted shipments of rare earth concentrate to China due to geopolitical tensions, impacting the supply chain strategy.
Adjusted Diluted EPS Decline
Adjusted diluted EPS fell from negative $0.04 a year ago to negative $0.12 this year, primarily due to higher interest expense and depreciation.
Company Guidance
During the MP Materials First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance on its recent strategic and operational advancements. MP Materials reported a record production of NdPr oxide at 563 metric tons, a 36% sequential increase, and achieved its second highest quarterly production of REO. The company emphasized the geopolitical importance of establishing a domestic rare earth supply chain due to China's recent tariffs and export restrictions. MP Materials halted shipments of rare earth concentrate to China, focusing instead on non-Chinese markets like Japan and Korea. They also recorded $5.2 million in revenue from initial metal production for General Motors, marking a significant milestone for domestic NdPr metal production. The company highlighted a 25% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenue, driven by a 246% rise in NdPr sales volumes, despite an adjusted EBITDA decline of $1.5 million to negative $2.7 million. MP Materials is actively discussing partnerships with major commercial and government stakeholders to accelerate its mission, leveraging its vertically integrated model to enhance the U.S. rare earth magnetic supply chain.MP Materials Financial Statement Overview
Summary
MP Materials faces financial headwinds with declining revenues and profitability. Despite a stable balance sheet with low leverage, negative cash flow trends highlight liquidity concerns.Income Statement
MP Materials' TTM revenue has declined compared to previous years, with an evident drop in profitability marked by negative EBIT and net income margins. The company is facing challenges in maintaining its revenue growth and profitability, which is evident from the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent leverage management. However, the return on equity has turned negative due to losses, impacting overall shareholder value. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting asset financing primarily through equity.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
MP Materials is experiencing negative operating and free cash flows, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has weakened, reflecting inefficiencies in converting earnings to cash.40
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 215.98M | 203.85M | 253.44M | 527.51M | 331.95M | 134.31M | Gross Profit |
| 4.83M | -66.79M | 105.02M | 416.94M | 231.32M | 31.91M | EBIT |
| -169.13M | -169.43M | 22.28M | 327.41M | 165.34M | 25.23M | EBITDA |
| -34.87M | 8.65M | 94.95M | 366.77M | 195.86M | -25.27M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -104.56M | -65.42M | 24.31M | 289.00M | 135.04M | -21.82M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 759.16M | 850.87M | 997.84M | 1.18B | 1.18B | 519.65M | Total Assets |
| 2.37B | 2.33B | 2.34B | 2.24B | 1.89B | 1.07B | Total Debt |
| 73.74M | 914.53M | 688.81M | 678.44M | 691.82M | 70.82M | Net Debt |
| -124.61M | 632.09M | 425.46M | 541.82M | -487.48M | -448.84M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.33B | 1.28B | 970.67M | 925.15M | 880.93M | 220.41M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.04B | 1.05B | 1.37B | 1.31B | 1.01B | 853.88M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -173.77M | -173.07M | -199.20M | 16.92M | -21.90M | -19.09M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -8.72M | 13.35M | 62.70M | 343.51M | 101.97M | 3.28M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -46.36M | 10.06M | 68.70M | -1.36B | -119.36M | -22.37M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -42.71M | -4.79M | -9.92M | -24.19M | 666.11M | 521.96M |
MP Materials Technical Analysis
Positive
29.20
Price Trends
23.45
Positive
23.76
Positive
20.68
Positive
Market Momentum
1.25
Negative
67.19
Neutral
78.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.61, above the 50-day MA of 23.45, and above the 200-day MA of 20.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MP.
MP Materials Risk Analysis
MP Materials disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MP Materials reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
A recent decision of the Delaware Court of Chancery in Garfield v. Boxed, Inc. may create uncertainty regarding the validity of some of our authorized and issued shares of common stock. Q4, 2022
2.
Increased scrutiny regarding our sustainability and ESG practices could impact our reputation and our stock price. Q4, 2022
MP Materials Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $7.45B | 8.51 | 17.53% | 1.39% | 21.56% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $5.90B | 32.28 | 6.44% | ― | 41.79% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $148.37M | 12.40 | 8.01% | ― | -15.07% | -36.06% | |
56 Neutral | $6.49B | 6.84 | -26.94% | 0.21% | -5.98% | -183.27% | |
54 Neutral | $4.45B | ― | -9.62% | ― | 4.63% | -3189.81% | |
51 Neutral | $2.04B | -1.21 | -21.10% | 3.95% | 2.90% | -30.45% | |
50 Neutral | $7.55B | ― | -10.58% | 2.49% | -39.34% | -500.52% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MP
MP Materials
29.20
15.13
107.53%
ALB
Albemarle
62.48
-43.84
-41.23%
AA
Alcoa
28.86
-9.21
-24.19%
CE
Celanese
56.87
-85.57
-60.07%
CDE
Coeur Mining
9.21
3.85
71.83%
CMT
Core Molding Technologies
16.68
<0.01
0.06%
MP Materials Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MP Materials Elects Directors and Approves Executive Compensation
Neutral
Jun 11, 2025
On June 10, 2025, MP Materials Corp. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where three Class II directors were elected to serve until 2028. The stockholders also approved the compensation for the company’s executive officers and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
MP Materials Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer
Neutral
Apr 4, 2025
On April 4, 2025, MP Materials Corp. appointed David G. Infuso as the Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer, succeeding Ryan Corbett who remains the Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Infuso, who joined the company in November 2020, has extensive experience in accounting and finance, having previously worked at Penn Entertainment, Inc. and Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. His new role comes with an employment agreement that includes a base salary of $315,000, eligibility for a discretionary bonus, and various benefits in case of termination. The appointment and associated compensation package highlight MP Materials’ commitment to strengthening its financial leadership team.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.