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BHP Group
(NYSE:BHP)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$93.00
▲(15.60% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:02/18/26
Overall score is driven by solid financial strength and profitability with a healthy balance sheet, complemented by strong bullish price trends and positive momentum. The main offsets are softer fundamentals (negative revenue growth and slowing free-cash-flow growth) and a valuation that appears only moderate rather than clearly discounted.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
A moderate debt-to-equity ratio and healthy return on equity indicate manageable leverage and efficient capital use. This financial flexibility supports funding sustaining capex, weathering commodity downcycles, and maintaining investment-grade credibility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative recent revenue trend
A recent decline in reported revenue suggests pressure on volumes or realizations. Persistent revenue weakness reduces operating leverage, limits reinvestment capacity, and makes long-term margin recovery more dependent on improved commodity markets or successful project expansions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
A moderate debt-to-equity ratio and healthy return on equity indicate manageable leverage and efficient capital use. This financial flexibility supports funding sustaining capex, weathering commodity downcycles, and maintaining investment-grade credibility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
BHP Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Copper Production (kt)
Reflects the output of copper in kilotonnes, a key indicator of BHP's contribution to the electronics and renewable energy industries, and its exposure to market demand for these essential materials.
Reflects the output of copper in kilotonnes, a key indicator of BHP's contribution to the electronics and renewable energy industries, and its exposure to market demand for these essential materials.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBHP Group (BHP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$209.69B
Dividend Yield3.55%
Average Volume (3M)2.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.3
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth1.04%
EPS Growth-9.88%
CountryUS
Employees38,962
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.06
Shares Outstanding2,540,695,800
10 Day Avg. Volume3,305,659
30 Day Avg. Volume2,855,015
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.96
Price to Book (P/B)2.56
Price to Sales (P/S)2.38
P/FCF Ratio13.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$93.00Price Target Upside15.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)5.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$57.45B
BHP Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BHP Group Limited is a prominent global natural resources enterprise with operations spanning multiple continents, including Australia, Europe, Asia (encompassing China, Japan, India, South Korea, and other regions), North America, and South Ameri...
How the Company Makes Money
BHP makes money primarily by extracting and producing bulk and base commodities and selling them to global customers, with revenue largely driven by: (1) Sales of produced commodities—its main revenue stream comes from selling iron ore, copper, me...
BHP Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
BHP delivered strong operational and financial performance with record production in key segments, robust safety achievements, and significant shareholder returns. However, challenges include a decline in EBITDA due to commodity prices, cost overruns, and delays in decarbonization technology development.Positive Updates
Record Iron Ore and Copper Production
BHP achieved record production in iron ore and copper, with copper volumes growing by 28% over the past 3 years and producing more than 2 million tonnes.
Negative Updates
EBITDA Decline Due to Commodity Prices
A 10% decline in EBITDA was attributed wholly to unfavorable commodity prices despite favorable foreign exchange rates.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Iron Ore and Copper Production
BHP achieved record production in iron ore and copper, with copper volumes growing by 28% over the past 3 years and producing more than 2 million tonnes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the call discussing BHP's financial performance for fiscal year 2025, several key metrics and strategic decisions were highlighted. BHP achieved record iron ore and copper production, with copper volumes growing by 28% over the past three years to surpass 2 million tonnes. The company reported an underlying EBITDA margin of 53% and a return on capital employed of 21%. A final dividend of USD 0.60 per share was announced, contributing to a full-year dividend of $5.6 billion, representing a payout ratio of 60%. BHP also communicated a reduction in capital spend by $1 billion per year over the medium term and revised its target net debt range to $10 billion to $20 billion. Operational excellence was emphasized, with unit costs at major assets improving by nearly 5% year-on-year despite inflationary pressures. Notably, Western Australia iron ore achieved a record EBITDA margin of 63% with C1 costs of $17.29 per tonne, remaining the lowest-cost major iron ore producer globally for six years. The company also highlighted safety improvements, achieving a 63% reduction in high potential injury frequency over five years. Looking forward, BHP outlined plans for average production growth of 2.2% per annum over the next decade, with significant contributions expected from copper and potash projects.BHP Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 54.04B | 51.26B | 55.66B | 53.82B | 65.10B | 57.26B |
| Gross Profit | 44.88B | 42.14B | 45.73B | 42.87B | 55.76B | 49.51B |
| EBITDA | 26.91B | 23.44B | 26.84B | 25.58B | 37.28B | 33.29B |
| Net Income | 10.25B | 9.02B | 7.90B | 12.92B | 30.90B | 11.30B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 116.01B | 108.79B | 102.36B | 101.30B | 95.17B | 108.93B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.81B | 12.17B | 12.65B | 12.46B | 17.54B | 15.25B |
| Total Debt | 31.53B | 24.50B | 20.18B | 22.34B | 16.43B | 20.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 60.55B | 56.57B | 53.24B | 52.77B | 46.40B | 53.32B |
| Stockholders Equity | 50.41B | 47.66B | 44.81B | 44.50B | 44.96B | 51.26B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.30B | 9.28B | 11.85B | 11.62B | 26.06B | 21.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.77B | 18.66B | 20.66B | 18.70B | 32.17B | 27.23B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.16B | -13.33B | -8.76B | -13.06B | -6.96B | -7.84B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.16B | -5.96B | -11.67B | -10.31B | -22.77B | -17.92B |
BHP Group Technical Analysis
Positive
80.45
Price Trends
84.67
Negative
79.28
Positive
68.57
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.90
Positive
46.82
Neutral
35.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BHP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 80.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.31, below the 50-day MA of 84.67, and above the 200-day MA of 68.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BHP.
BHP Group Risk Analysis
BHP Group disclosed 8 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BHP Group reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BHP Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $209.69B | 20.25 | 21.41% | 3.55% | 1.04% | -9.88% | |
69 Neutral | $162.74B | 15.35 | 16.59% | 4.60% | 7.59% | -13.66% | |
69 Neutral | $1.73B | 8.26 | 20.95% | 1.14% | 16.41% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.26B | 187.19 | 2.79% | ― | 6.42% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $62.44B | 21.99 | 7.68% | 10.04% | 4.64% | -51.66% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
51 Neutral | $9.49B | -126.39 | -3.49% | ― | 60.93% | 34.20% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
BHP
BHP Group
83.33
34.83
71.83%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
29.95
7.70
34.61%
RIO
Rio Tinto
94.42
38.35
68.39%
VALE
Vale SA
14.99
5.51
58.17%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
13.04
8.10
163.97%
MP
MP Materials
53.31
21.47
67.43%
BHP Group Corporate Events
BHP Discloses Final Director Interest Notice as Mike Henry Retires from Board
Jul 1, 2026
BHP Group Limited has announced that Mike Henry retired as an executive director on 30 June 2026, with the company lodging a final director’s interest notice in line with ASX Listing Rule 3.19A.3. The filing details Henry’s remaining e...
BHP Group Details Equity Interests of New CEO Brandon Craig as He Takes Office
Jul 1, 2026
On 1 July 2026, BHP Group confirmed that Brandon Craig formally assumed the roles of Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of the company, following an earlier announcement made on 18 March 2026. The filing discloses Craig’s initial...
BHP Appoints Mark Vassella as Independent Non-Executive Director, Discloses Shareholdings
Jun 2, 2026
On 1 June 2026, BHP Group Limited appointed Mark Vassella as an independent non-executive director, formalising the governance change via a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company disclosed that Vassella holds 1,905 BH...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.