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BHP Group Plc (BHP)
NYSE:BHP
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BHP Group (BHP) AI Stock Analysis

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BHP

BHP Group

(NYSE:BHP)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$55.00
▲(8.55%Upside)
BHP's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary drivers of its stock score. The neutral technical indicators suggest a lack of clear momentum, warranting monitoring of market conditions. The absence of recent earnings call data limits insights into management’s strategic direction.
Positive Factors
Market Sentiment
BHP's share price has reached the £20 target, supported by improving sentiment in the sector as iron ore prices rise above US$100 per ton.
Negative Factors
Capital Expenditure
Jansen Stage 1 capital expenditure has increased by 22-29% to US$7.0-7.4B due to cost inflation, design changes, and lower production during construction.
Valuation Concerns
The stock has been downgraded to Market Perform due to multiples looking less compelling, with free cash flow yields now below average.

BHP Group (BHP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BHP Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBHP Group (BHP) is one of the world's leading resources companies, with a focus on the extraction and production of minerals, oil, and gas. Headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, the company operates in various sectors including iron ore, copper, coal, and petroleum. BHP is committed to sustainable practices and innovation, continuously seeking to enhance its operations and deliver value to its stakeholders.
How the Company Makes MoneyBHP Group makes money primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of natural resources. Its key revenue streams include the sale of iron ore, copper, coal, and petroleum products. Iron ore is one of the largest contributors to the company's revenue, driven by demand from steel manufacturers. Copper, essential for electrical applications and renewable energy systems, also represents a significant part of BHP's portfolio. Coal, both metallurgical and thermal, is supplied to global markets for steel production and energy generation. BHP also generates income from its oil and gas operations, which involve the exploration and extraction of petroleum products. The company's earnings are influenced by commodity prices, demand from key markets like China, and strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its global reach and operational efficiency.

BHP Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Copper Production (kt)
Copper Production (kt)
Reflects the output of copper in kilotonnes, a key indicator of BHP's contribution to the electronics and renewable energy industries, and its exposure to market demand for these essential materials.
Chart InsightsBHP Group's copper production has shown a strong upward trend since mid-2022, reaching a peak in late 2024. This increase suggests successful operational enhancements and possibly favorable market conditions. The consistent growth in production could position BHP to capitalize on rising copper demand driven by global electrification and renewable energy initiatives. Investors should monitor how BHP manages production costs and potential geopolitical risks that could impact supply chains.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

BHP Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BHP Group has a strong financial position with solid profitability margins and a stable balance sheet. The cash flow generation is robust, supporting operations and strategic initiatives, despite a concerning decline in revenue growth.
Income Statement
75
Positive
BHP Group has demonstrated a strong financial performance with a solid gross profit margin of 82.3% and a respectable net profit margin of 14.1% for the 2024 period. However, the revenue growth has been a concern with a decline of 14% from 2022 to 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain solid at 31.3% and 42.0% respectively, indicating efficient operational management. The declining trend in revenue requires attention to ensure future stability.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company's balance sheet is robust, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 for 2024, showcasing a conservative leverage approach. Return on Equity (ROE) is relatively strong at 17.6%, indicating effective use of shareholder capital. The equity ratio stands at 43.8%, reflecting a healthy level of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet stability supports sustainable operations.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
BHP Group's cash flow statements reveal a commendable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.62, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow growth from 2023 to 2024 is modest at 2.0%. The company's free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.50 underscores its ability to generate ample free cash relative to net income. However, the lower growth in free cash flow merits monitoring.
BreakdownJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue56.03B53.82B65.10B56.92B42.93B
Gross Profit46.10B27.66B39.71B34.04B20.43B
EBITDA23.52B27.12B38.64B30.23B18.05B
Net Income7.90B12.92B22.74B11.30B7.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets102.36B101.30B95.17B108.93B105.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments12.65B12.46B17.54B15.25B13.46B
Total Debt20.18B22.34B16.43B20.98B27.05B
Total Liabilities53.24B52.77B46.40B53.32B53.56B
Stockholders Equity44.81B44.50B44.96B51.26B47.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow11.85B11.62B26.06B21.43B8.07B
Operating Cash Flow20.66B18.70B32.17B27.23B15.71B
Investing Cash Flow-8.76B-13.06B-6.96B-7.84B-7.62B
Financing Cash Flow-11.67B-10.31B-22.77B-17.92B-9.75B

BHP Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price50.67
Price Trends
50DMA
50.08
Positive
100DMA
49.08
Positive
200DMA
50.00
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.69
Positive
RSI
46.96
Neutral
STOCH
22.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BHP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 50.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.83, above the 50-day MA of 50.08, and above the 200-day MA of 50.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BHP.

BHP Group Risk Analysis

BHP Group disclosed 8 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BHP Group reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BHP Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$132.32B11.7726.13%4.86%-3.15%54.08%
75
Outperform
$105.31B3.9318.18%6.72%0.03%-3.78%
73
Outperform
$1.92B120.281.79%0.52%5.55%-79.38%
71
Outperform
$41.95B7.2715.98%8.72%-9.59%-25.35%
64
Neutral
$10.67B-9.62%4.63%-3189.81%
59
Neutral
$641.00M-16.64%2.13%12.30%42.72%
44
Neutral
C$976.69M-6.88-14.61%2.56%17.52%-32.77%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BHP
BHP Group
50.67
-0.85
-1.65%
MTRN
Materion
105.30
-1.60
-1.50%
RIO
Rio Tinto
59.77
0.05
0.08%
VALE
Vale SA
9.53
-0.09
-0.94%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
4.84
-2.10
-30.26%
MP
MP Materials
61.50
50.33
450.58%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025