BHP Group (BHP) AI Stock Analysis

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BHP Group

(NYSE:BHP)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:73Outperform

Price Target:

$74.00

▲(14.09% Upside)

BHP's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including record production and robust shareholder returns. However, technical indicators suggest a neutral to slightly bearish short-term trend, and challenges such as declining EBITDA due to commodity prices and decarbonization delays weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

BHP's ability to maintain low production costs while achieving record outputs in iron ore and copper underscores its operational efficiency and competitive advantage in the mining industry.

Financial Health

Strong EBITDA margins and a stable balance sheet indicate BHP's robust financial health, allowing for sustained profitability and resilience against market fluctuations.

Safety and Workforce Diversity

Improvements in safety metrics and workforce diversity reflect BHP's commitment to sustainable practices, enhancing its reputation and operational stability.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Negative revenue growth poses a challenge for BHP, potentially impacting its ability to expand market share and invest in future growth opportunities.

Legal Liabilities

Legal liabilities from environmental disasters like the Mariana dam collapse could lead to significant financial penalties and damage BHP's reputation, affecting long-term sustainability.

Decarbonization Delays

Delays in advancing decarbonization technologies may hinder BHP's ability to meet environmental targets, impacting its competitiveness in a market increasingly focused on sustainability.

BHP Group (BHP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$167.55B

Dividend Yield3.55%

Average Volume (3M)3.05M

Price to Earnings (P/E)18.6

Beta (1Y)0.90

Revenue Growth-7.86%

EPS Growth14.17%

CountryUS

Employees38,962

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength58

IndustryIndustrial Materials

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.00

Shares Outstanding2,539,456,500

10 Day Avg. Volume3,699,083

30 Day Avg. Volume3,046,728

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.96

Price to Book (P/B)2.56

Price to Sales (P/S)2.38

P/FCF Ratio13.15

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.81

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.63

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.20

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.75

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$56.00

Price Target Upside-13.66% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

EPS Forecast (FY)4.71

Revenue Forecast (FY)$53.25B

BHP Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, the rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal. The company is also involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of nickel, as well as potash development activities. In addition, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. The company was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes MoneyBHP generates revenue primarily through the sale of its extracted and processed minerals and resources. The company operates on a commodity pricing model, where the prices of its products are influenced by global supply and demand dynamics. Key revenue streams include iron ore sales, which constitute a significant portion of BHP's earnings, along with copper, coal, and oil. BHP also benefits from long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with various customers and stakeholders, enhancing its market presence and stability. Furthermore, the company focuses on operational efficiency and cost management to maximize profit margins. Factors contributing to its earnings also include fluctuations in commodity prices, production volumes, and the successful management of its projects and assets across different regions.

BHP Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Copper Production (kt)

Copper Production (kt)
Reflects the output of copper in kilotonnes, a key indicator of BHP's contribution to the electronics and renewable energy industries, and its exposure to market demand for these essential materials.

Chart InsightsBHP Group's copper production has shown a strong upward trend since mid-2022, reaching a peak in late 2024. This increase suggests successful operational enhancements and possibly favorable market conditions. The consistent growth in production could position BHP to capitalize on rising copper demand driven by global electrification and renewable energy initiatives. Investors should monitor how BHP manages production costs and potential geopolitical risks that could impact supply chains.

Data provided by:

The Fly

BHP Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

BHP delivered strong operational and financial performance with record production in key segments, robust safety achievements, and significant shareholder returns. However, challenges include a decline in EBITDA due to commodity prices, cost overruns, and delays in decarbonization technology development.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Iron Ore and Copper Production

BHP achieved record production in iron ore and copper, with copper volumes growing by 28% over the past 3 years and producing more than 2 million tonnes.

Strong Financial Performance and Dividend

The company maintained a healthy underlying EBITDA margin of 53% and declared a final dividend of USD 0.60 per share, bringing the full-year dividend to $5.6 billion.

Safety and Gender Balance Achievements

BHP realized year-on-year improvements in safety metrics with no fatalities and achieved gender balance with 41.3% female representation in the workforce.

Western Australia Iron Ore Performance

Record production and shipments, an EBITDA margin of 63%, and C1 costs of $17.29 per tonne, making it the lowest cost major iron ore producer globally for 6 years.

Copper Segment Success

Generated a record $12 billion in EBITDA, 45% of the group total, with Escondida volumes increasing by 16%.

Negative Updates

EBITDA Decline Due to Commodity Prices

A 10% decline in EBITDA was attributed wholly to unfavorable commodity prices despite favorable foreign exchange rates.

Cost and Schedule Overruns at Jansen

Higher inflation and cost escalation, coupled with lower productivity, led to increased costs and delayed schedules for the Jansen project.

Decarbonization Technology Delays

The pace of development for decarbonization technology has slowed, particularly regarding diesel displacement, affecting operational decarbonization timelines.

Company Guidance

In the call discussing BHP's financial performance for fiscal year 2025, several key metrics and strategic decisions were highlighted. BHP achieved record iron ore and copper production, with copper volumes growing by 28% over the past three years to surpass 2 million tonnes. The company reported an underlying EBITDA margin of 53% and a return on capital employed of 21%. A final dividend of USD 0.60 per share was announced, contributing to a full-year dividend of $5.6 billion, representing a payout ratio of 60%. BHP also communicated a reduction in capital spend by $1 billion per year over the medium term and revised its target net debt range to $10 billion to $20 billion. Operational excellence was emphasized, with unit costs at major assets improving by nearly 5% year-on-year despite inflationary pressures. Notably, Western Australia iron ore achieved a record EBITDA margin of 63% with C1 costs of $17.29 per tonne, remaining the lowest-cost major iron ore producer globally for six years. The company also highlighted safety improvements, achieving a 63% reduction in high potential injury frequency over five years. Looking forward, BHP outlined plans for average production growth of 2.2% per annum over the next decade, with significant contributions expected from copper and potash projects.

BHP Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BHP Group demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and efficient operations. While revenue growth has been a challenge, the company maintains a stable balance sheet and good cash flow generation. Continued focus on managing costs and improving revenue growth will be key to sustaining financial performance.

Income Statement

Positive

BHP Group's income statement shows a strong EBIT and EBITDA margin, indicating efficient operations. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative in recent years, which is a concern. The gross profit margin has decreased, reflecting potential cost pressures. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a solid net profit margin.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is robust with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on equity is healthy, indicating effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a strong asset base relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, which could impact future investments. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	51.26B	51.26B	55.66B	53.82B	65.10B	57.26B
Gross Profit	42.14B	42.14B	45.73B	42.87B	55.76B	49.51B
EBITDA	23.44B	23.44B	26.84B	25.58B	37.28B	33.29B
Net Income	9.02B	9.02B	7.90B	12.92B	30.90B	11.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	108.79B	108.79B	102.36B	101.30B	95.17B	108.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.17B	12.17B	12.65B	12.46B	17.54B	15.25B
Total Debt	24.50B	24.50B	20.18B	22.34B	16.43B	20.98B
Total Liabilities	56.57B	56.57B	53.24B	52.77B	46.40B	53.32B
Stockholders Equity	47.66B	47.66B	44.81B	44.50B	44.96B	51.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.30B	9.28B	11.85B	11.62B	26.06B	21.43B
Operating Cash Flow	18.70B	18.66B	20.66B	18.70B	32.17B	27.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-13.35B	-13.33B	-8.76B	-13.06B	-6.96B	-7.84B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.97B	-5.96B	-11.67B	-10.31B	-22.77B	-17.92B

BHP Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price64.86

Price Trends

50DMA

58.77

Positive

100DMA

56.93

Positive

200DMA

52.81

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.76

Negative

RSI

62.58

Neutral

STOCH

86.13

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BHP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 64.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.34, above the 50-day MA of 58.77, and above the 200-day MA of 52.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.13 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BHP.

BHP Group Risk Analysis

BHP Group disclosed 8 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BHP Group reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BHP Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VALE	79 Outperform	$62.69B	11.58	13.65%	10.04%	-8.49%	-41.69%
RIO	77 Outperform	$145.13B	13.59	18.18%	4.60%	-0.44%	-4.20%
BHP	73 Outperform	$167.55B	18.60	19.51%	3.55%	-7.86%	14.17%
NEXA	64 Neutral	$1.58B	-96.33	-1.64%	1.14%	7.92%	91.83%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
MP	61 Neutral	$11.82B	―	-6.83%	―	26.44%	-95.87%
CMP	54 Neutral	$1.01B	-12.15	-28.98%	―	11.32%	61.60%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BHP

BHP Group

64.86

16.79

34.93%

CMP

Compass Minerals International

23.29

9.42

67.92%

RIO

Rio Tinto

85.13

27.55

47.85%

VALE

Vale SA

14.61

6.63

83.04%

NEXA

Nexa Resources SA

11.80

5.61

90.63%

MP Materials

68.98

48.11

230.52%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 01, 2025