BHP Group (BHP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $151.29B
• Dividend Yield: 3.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.79M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -7.86%
• EPS Growth: 14.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 38,962
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 2.00
• Shares Outstanding: 2,539,456,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,778,010
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,794,054
• PEG Ratio: 0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.93
• 1Y Price Target: $49.75
• Price Target Upside: -15.46% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $51.84B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $61.00 ▲(3.65% Upside)

BHP's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including record production and robust shareholder returns. However, technical indicators suggest a neutral to slightly bearish short-term trend, and challenges such as declining EBITDA due to commodity prices and decarbonization delays weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

BHP's ability to maintain low production costs while achieving record outputs in iron ore and copper underscores its operational efficiency and competitive advantage in the mining industry.

Financial Health

Strong EBITDA margins and a stable balance sheet indicate BHP's robust financial health, allowing for sustained profitability and resilience against market fluctuations.

Safety and Workforce Diversity

Improvements in safety metrics and workforce diversity reflect BHP's commitment to sustainable practices, enhancing its reputation and operational stability.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Negative revenue growth poses a challenge for BHP, potentially impacting its ability to expand market share and invest in future growth opportunities.

Legal Liabilities

Legal liabilities from environmental disasters like the Mariana dam collapse could lead to significant financial penalties and damage BHP's reputation, affecting long-term sustainability.

Decarbonization Delays

Delays in advancing decarbonization technologies may hinder BHP's ability to meet environmental targets, impacting its competitiveness in a market increasingly focused on sustainability.

BHP Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BHP Group (BHP) is a global resources company headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, primarily engaged in the exploration, production, and processing of metals and minerals. The company operates through several key sectors, including Minerals, Oil and Gas, and Potash. BHP's core products include iron ore, copper, coal, nickel, and oil, which are essential raw materials for various industries such as construction, automotive, and energy. BHP's extensive operations span across multiple continents, with significant assets in Australia, the Americas, and Africa, positioning it as one of the largest mining companies in the world.

How the Company Makes Money

BHP generates revenue primarily through the sale of its extracted and processed minerals and resources. The company operates on a commodity pricing model, where the prices of its products are influenced by global supply and demand dynamics. Key revenue streams include iron ore sales, which constitute a significant portion of BHP's earnings, along with copper, coal, and oil. BHP also benefits from long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with various customers and stakeholders, enhancing its market presence and stability. Furthermore, the company focuses on operational efficiency and cost management to maximize profit margins. Factors contributing to its earnings also include fluctuations in commodity prices, production volumes, and the successful management of its projects and assets across different regions.

BHP Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BHP Group demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and efficient operations. While revenue growth has been a challenge, the company maintains a stable balance sheet and good cash flow generation. Continued focus on managing costs and improving revenue growth will be key to sustaining financial performance.

Income Statement

BHP Group's income statement shows a strong EBIT and EBITDA margin, indicating efficient operations. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative in recent years, which is a concern. The gross profit margin has decreased, reflecting potential cost pressures. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a solid net profit margin.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on equity is healthy, indicating effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a strong asset base relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, which could impact future investments. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	51.26B	51.26B	55.66B	53.82B	65.10B	57.26B
Gross Profit	42.14B	42.14B	45.73B	42.87B	55.76B	49.51B
EBITDA	23.44B	23.44B	26.84B	25.58B	37.28B	33.29B
Net Income	9.02B	9.02B	7.90B	12.92B	30.90B	11.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	108.79B	108.79B	102.36B	101.30B	95.17B	108.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.17B	12.17B	12.65B	12.46B	17.54B	15.25B
Total Debt	24.50B	24.50B	20.18B	22.34B	16.43B	20.98B
Total Liabilities	56.57B	56.57B	53.24B	52.77B	46.40B	53.32B
Stockholders Equity	47.66B	47.66B	44.81B	44.50B	44.96B	51.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.30B	9.28B	11.85B	11.62B	26.06B	21.43B
Operating Cash Flow	18.70B	18.66B	20.66B	18.70B	32.17B	27.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-13.35B	-13.33B	-8.76B	-13.06B	-6.96B	-7.84B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.97B	-5.96B	-11.67B	-10.31B	-22.77B	-17.92B

BHP Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 58.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BHP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.26, above the 50-day MA of 55.66, and above the 200-day MA of 50.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BHP.

BHP Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RIO	80 Outperform	$126.12B	11.50	18.18%	5.10%	-0.44%	-4.20%
VALE	79 Outperform	$55.11B	10.18	13.65%	6.21%	-8.49%	-41.69%
BHP	73 Outperform	$151.29B	16.58	19.51%	3.69%	-7.86%	14.17%
NEXA	65 Neutral	$966.80M	―	-1.64%	1.39%	7.92%	91.83%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
MP	58 Neutral	$11.00B	―	-6.83%	―	26.44%	-95.87%
CMP	50 Neutral	$845.45M	―	-40.17%	―	7.27%	27.35%

BHP Group Corporate Events

BHP Group Secures $1.5 Billion in Senior Notes Issuance

On September 2, 2025, BHP Group Limited, through its subsidiary BHP Billiton Finance (USA) Limited, entered into an underwriting agreement to issue US$500 million of 5.000% Senior Notes due 2036 and US$1 billion of 5.750% Senior Notes due 2055. These notes are fully guaranteed by BHP Group Limited and are part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and extend its debt maturity profile. This move is expected to enhance BHP’s financial flexibility and support its long-term growth initiatives, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

BHP Group Successfully Prices $1.5 Billion US Bond Offer

On September 2, 2025, BHP Group Limited announced the successful pricing of US$1.5 billion in senior unsecured bonds in the US market. The bond offer, which includes ten-year and thirty-year tranches, is aimed at raising funds for general corporate purposes, potentially enhancing BHP’s financial flexibility and market positioning.

BHP Group Announces Director’s Interest Change Amidst Share Vesting

On August 29, 2025, BHP Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Mike Henry, reflecting transactions that occurred on August 22, 2025. The notice detailed the acquisition of 144,654 ordinary shares and the disposal of 66,295 shares, resulting from the vesting of performance and deferred rights under BHP’s incentive plans. This change in shareholding highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perceptions.