Upbound Group (UPBD)
NASDAQ:UPBD
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Upbound Group
(NASDAQ:UPBD)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▲(6.04% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/23/26
Overall score reflects a balanced setup: improving cash generation and constructive 2026 guidance support the outlook, but thin profitability and elevated leverage are meaningful constraints. Technicals are positive but appear somewhat overextended, while valuation/dividend yield are supportive.
Positive Factors
Improved Cash Generation
Material improvement in operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for operations, reinvestment, and deleveraging. Stronger cash conversion reduces reliance on external financing and supports capex, dividend maintenance, and strategic investments over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
High leverage materially constrains financial flexibility and increases exposure to interest-rate and refinancing risk. Even with improving cash flow, elevated debt levels limit the company’s ability to fund growth, pursue opportunistic M&A, or absorb shocks without heavier reliance on operating cash.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Cash Generation
Material improvement in operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for operations, reinvestment, and deleveraging. Stronger cash conversion reduces reliance on external financing and supports capex, dividend maintenance, and strategic investments over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Upbound Group (UPBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.07B
Dividend Yield8.88%
Average Volume (3M)866.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.5
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth7.48%
EPS Growth2.05%
CountryUS
Employees11,970
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.01
Shares Outstanding58,117,603
10 Day Avg. Volume743,973
30 Day Avg. Volume866,496
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.21
P/FCF Ratio4.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.33Price Target Upside75.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)4.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.88B
Upbound Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Upbound Group, Inc., an omni-channel platform company, leases household durable goods to customers on a lease-to-own basis in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. The company operates in four segments: Rent-A-Center Business, Acima, Mexico,...
How the Company Makes Money
Upbound Group makes money primarily by earning revenue from lease-to-own and point-of-sale lease/financing transactions that allow customers to obtain merchandise while paying over time. Under the Rent-A-Center model, the company acquires (or sour...
Upbound Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive picture: record full-year revenue, growth in adjusted EBITDA and EPS, materially stronger cash flow, and clear 2026 guidance that implies stability or growth across segments. High-growth assets (Bridget) and momentum at Acima and Rent‑A‑Center provide catalysts. Notable headwinds include margin compression, elevated loss rates (particularly at Acima), Rent‑A‑Center EBITDA decline, Bridget product rollout delays, legal accruals, and elevated leverage. Management has articulated focused priorities — disciplined underwriting, investments in data/technology, targeted cost actions, and a plan to reduce leverage — which support a constructive outlook despite near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Revenue
Full-year 2025 revenue grew 8.7% to approximately $4.7 billion — the highest full-year revenue on record for Upbound, surpassing the prior record in FY2021.
Negative Updates
Margin Compression at Consolidated and Segment Levels
Q4 consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin was 10.5%, down 90 basis points YoY. Rent‑A‑Center adjusted EBITDA fell ~13% YoY with margins down 230 basis points, and Acima EBITDA margins were modestly lower YoY (down 10 bps) despite sequential improvement.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Revenue
Full-year 2025 revenue grew 8.7% to approximately $4.7 billion — the highest full-year revenue on record for Upbound, surpassing the prior record in FY2021.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Upbound's 2026 guidance calls for consolidated revenue of $4.7–$4.95 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $500–$535 million and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $4.10–$4.35, with free cash flow rising to about $200 million (including an estimated ~$100 million benefit from accelerated tax depreciation); the company expects an effective tax rate near 26%, average diluted shares of ~59.4 million, corporate costs ≈4% of revenue, and includes a $72 million non‑ordinary legal/regulatory cash outflow while keeping CapEx relatively flat to 2025. First‑quarter 2026 guidance is revenue $1.16–$1.26 billion, adjusted EBITDA $120–$130 million and non‑GAAP EPS $1.05–$1.15. By segment, Acima is expected to deliver mid‑single‑digit GMV and revenue growth with adjusted EBITDA margins roughly in line with 2025 and losses stabilizing around 9.5% (Q1 lease charge‑offs mid‑9%); Bridget is projected to grow >30% to $265–$285 million of revenue with adjusted EBITDA of $50–$60 million (Q1 net advance loss ratio ~3–3.5%); and Rent‑A‑Center revenue is expected to be flat to positive with adjusted EBITDA margins in line with 2025 and lease charge‑offs flat to slightly higher sequentially. The company is targeting long‑term net leverage near 2.0x (year‑end 2025 net leverage ~2.9x) with progress through 2026.Upbound Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
43
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.70B | 4.32B | 3.99B | 4.25B | 4.58B |
| Gross Profit | 1.62B | 2.08B | 2.02B | 2.08B | 2.24B |
| EBITDA | 273.03M | 339.01M | 290.54M | 283.05M | 435.01M |
| Net Income | 73.24M | 123.48M | -5.18M | 12.36M | 134.94M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.28B | 2.65B | 2.72B | 2.76B | 2.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 120.53M | 60.86M | 93.70M | 144.14M | 108.33M |
| Total Debt | 1.86B | 1.58B | 1.60B | 1.67B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.58B | 2.02B | 2.16B | 2.24B | 2.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 695.74M | 628.98M | 560.37M | 525.15M | 513.28M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 238.71M | 48.45M | 146.89M | 407.07M | 329.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 305.57M | 104.72M | 200.29M | 468.46M | 392.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -403.73M | -41.51M | -50.96M | -62.33M | -1.34B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 156.47M | -93.52M | -202.12M | -370.71M | 892.85M |
Upbound Group Technical Analysis
Positive
18.39
Price Trends
19.02
Negative
18.36
Positive
20.30
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.23
Negative
52.01
Neutral
64.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.71, below the 50-day MA of 19.02, and below the 200-day MA of 20.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPBD.
Upbound Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $1.57B | 22.71 | 31.88% | 2.66% | 18.30% | 22.19% | |
69 Neutral | $1.80B | -93.17 | -6.73% | ― | 19.87% | -136.93% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $1.07B | 13.54 | 10.66% | 8.88% | 7.48% | 2.05% | |
61 Neutral | $750.21M | -17.26 | -32.90% | ― | 12.78% | -20.47% | |
56 Neutral | $717.57M | 61.80 | -13.21% | ― | -2.13% | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
UPBD
Upbound Group
18.39
-1.20
-6.12%
PRCH
Porch Group
6.76
1.44
27.07%
SEMR
SEMrush Holdings
11.94
3.11
35.22%
KARO
Karooooo
50.75
12.50
32.68%
AMPL
Amplitude
5.61
-2.97
-34.62%
Upbound Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Upbound Group Posts Strong 2025 Results, Sets 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Upbound Group reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting 11% year-over-year consolidated revenue growth to $1.2 billion and strong performance across its key brands. Acima delivered its ninth consecu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.