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Upbound Group
(NASDAQ:UPBD)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$21.50
▲(5.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
UPBD scores as a balanced, mid-range opportunity: strong and improving cash flow and reaffirmed guidance support the outlook, but thin margins and a highly levered balance sheet materially raise risk if demand or credit conditions weaken. Technicals are mixed (short-term softness vs longer-term trend support), while valuation is comparatively attractive due to a moderate P/E and high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, material operating and free cash flow shows the business converts earnings to cash reliably. This supports dividends, debt reduction and selective reinvestment, improving financial flexibility and resilience to demand or credit stress over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Net leverage at multi‑turn levels increases vulnerability to macro swings and credit-cycle shocks, constraining strategic options. Even with modest improvement and a stated target to deleverage, carrying heavy debt limits capital for growth investments and raises refinancing risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, material operating and free cash flow shows the business converts earnings to cash reliably. This supports dividends, debt reduction and selective reinvestment, improving financial flexibility and resilience to demand or credit stress over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Upbound Group (UPBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.13B
Dividend Yield6.03%
Average Volume (3M)1.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth7.67%
EPS Growth-32.70%
CountryUS
Employees12,050
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.59
Shares Outstanding58,293,728
10 Day Avg. Volume907,973
30 Day Avg. Volume1,010,096
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.21
P/FCF Ratio4.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.00Price Target Upside22.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.80B
Upbound Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) is a lease-to-own and retail company focused on providing flexible payment solutions for consumer durable goods in the United States. The company operates primarily through its Rent-A-Center and Acima businesses, offerin...
How the Company Makes Money
Upbound Group makes money primarily by offering customers access to consumer durable goods through lease-to-own and alternative payment programs and earning revenue from those transactions. Rent-A-Center generates revenue through recurring lease p...
Upbound Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive tone overall: management reported modest consolidated revenue growth, stronger profitability (EBITDA and EPS), solid cash generation and improved portfolio health driven by underwriting actions. Brigit delivered strong top-line and EBITDA growth and Acima and Rent‑A‑Center showed meaningful improvements in loss performance and margins despite volume impacts. Management reiterated full-year targets, emphasized disciplined capital allocation (dividend and deleveraging toward ~2x leverage), and highlighted strategic investments in technology and partnerships (Amazon, large furniture merchant) that should support future growth. Headwinds remain—primarily macro pressure on non‑prime consumers, a YoY decline in Acima GMV, Rent‑A‑Center revenue pressure, measured product rollout timing and expected legal/regulatory settlements—but these were presented as manageable and addressed through conservative underwriting and a focus on long-term unit economics.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Profitability Growth
Consolidated revenue of $1.2 billion, up 3.7% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $136 million, up nearly 8% YoY; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.08, up 8% YoY.
Negative Updates
Acima GMV Decline
Acima GMV ~$427 million, down ~6% YoY driven primarily by deliberate underwriting tightening and weaker discretionary demand; 2026 GMV expected flat to low-single-digit growth versus prior-year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue and Profitability Growth
Consolidated revenue of $1.2 billion, up 3.7% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $136 million, up nearly 8% YoY; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.08, up 8% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 consolidated targets of revenue of approximately $4.7–$4.95 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $500–$535 million, non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $4.00–$4.35 and roughly $200 million of free cash flow (the guide assumes ~ $70 million of non‑ordinary course legal/regulatory settlements and relatively flat CapEx to 2025). For Q2 2026 they expect consolidated revenue of $1.1–$1.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $120–$130 million and non‑GAAP EPS of $1.00–$1.10; they expect Q2 GMV to be down low‑ to mid‑single digits year‑over‑year but to improve sequentially and return to year‑over‑year growth in H2. Segment outlooks: Acima GMV and revenue flat to up low‑single digits with 2026 losses stabilizing in the low‑9% area and adjusted EBITDA margin finishing slightly above 2025; Brigit revenue growth of >30% to $265–$285 million with adjusted EBITDA of $50–$60 million (Brigit net advance loss rate roughly mid‑3% with Q1 near ~3.5%); Rent‑A‑Center revenue flat to down low‑single digits with EBITDA margins roughly flat to 2025. Capital priorities include targeting long‑term leverage near 2.0x (quarter‑end net debt ~ $1.4 billion and leverage 2.6x), quarter‑end liquidity of ~ $465 million, continuation of a $0.39/share quarterly dividend (~$23 million this quarter) and focus on deleveraging and selective reinvestment.Upbound Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.74B | 4.70B | 4.32B | 3.99B | 4.25B | 4.58B |
| Gross Profit | 2.33B | 2.27B | 2.08B | 2.02B | 2.08B | 2.24B |
| EBITDA | 1.76B | 1.74B | 339.01M | 290.54M | 283.05M | 435.01M |
| Net Income | 90.34M | 73.24M | 123.48M | -5.18M | 12.36M | 134.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.10B | 3.28B | 2.65B | 2.72B | 2.76B | 2.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 105.30M | 120.53M | 60.86M | 93.70M | 144.14M | 108.33M |
| Total Debt | 1.71B | 1.86B | 1.58B | 1.60B | 1.67B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.37B | 2.58B | 2.02B | 2.16B | 2.24B | 2.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 733.35M | 695.74M | 628.98M | 560.37M | 525.15M | 513.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 355.95M | 238.71M | 48.45M | 146.89M | 407.07M | 329.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 425.45M | 305.57M | 104.72M | 200.29M | 468.46M | 392.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -143.57M | -403.73M | -41.51M | -50.96M | -62.33M | -1.34B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -284.47M | 156.47M | -93.52M | -202.12M | -370.71M | 892.85M |
Upbound Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
20.46
Price Trends
19.86
Negative
18.89
Positive
18.58
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
45.99
Neutral
32.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPBD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.93, above the 50-day MA of 19.86, and above the 200-day MA of 18.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UPBD.
Upbound Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $754.15M | 45.95 | 9.35% | ― | 6.88% | 26.04% | |
67 Neutral | $2.02B | 142.00 | 1.29% | ― | 9.58% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $1.13B | 12.27 | 12.76% | 5.72% | 7.67% | -32.70% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
59 Neutral | $1.94B | -42.26 | -12.48% | ― | 27.05% | -12.95% | |
59 Neutral | $430.97M | -18.82 | 116.77% | ― | -17.06% | 54.45% | |
59 Neutral | $1.42B | -12.40 | -13.25% | ― | ― | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
UPBD
Upbound Group
19.83
-0.11
-0.55%
MITK
Mitek Systems
18.49
8.55
86.11%
NCNO
nCino
19.17
-7.02
-26.80%
ALKT
Alkami Technology
19.73
-0.39
-1.94%
BLND
Blend Labs
1.63
-1.10
-40.29%
WLTH
Wealthfront Corporation
9.70
-4.49
-31.64%
Upbound Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Upbound Group Posts Solid Q2 Results, Narrows 2026 Outlook
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Upbound Group reported second-quarter 2026 results showing consolidated revenue of about $1.2 billion, with all key metrics landing within prior guidance ranges. The company highlighted robust cash generation, including roughly $...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Upbound Shareholders Approve 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Upbound Group, Inc. stockholders approved a new 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan authorizing up to 4,590,636 shares of common stock for equity awards to directors, executives, employees and other personnel, while halting new grants a...
Executive/Board Changes
Upbound Group Announces Resignation of Executive Vice President
Neutral
May 19, 2026
On May 15, 2026, Upbound Group, Inc. announced that Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary Bryan Pechersky had submitted his resignation, effective June 5, 2026. The company emphasized that Pechersky’s decision to ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Upbound Group Posts Solid Q1 Results, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Upbound Group reported its first-quarter 2026 results, posting 3.7% year-over-year consolidated revenue growth to $1.2 billion and strong cash generation with $171 million in operating cash flow. Segment performance was mixed bu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.