Upbound Group (UPBD)
NASDAQ:UPBD
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Upbound Group
(NASDAQ:UPBD)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
▲(5.47% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/02/26
UPBD scores positively on improving fundamentals (strong TTM revenue rebound, significantly improved leverage, and strong free cash flow) and a constructive earnings call with reaffirmed full-year targets. The score is held back by persistently low net margins/earnings volatility and only neutral technical signals (still below the 200-day average). Valuation support primarily comes from the high dividend yield, while P/E-based valuation is not assessable from the provided data.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained FCF (~$349M TTM) and double-digit FCF growth provide durable internal funding to pay the dividend, reduce debt, and invest in technology. Reliable cash conversion improves resilience versus earnings volatility and supports multi-quarter capital allocation priorities.
Negative Factors
Thin net margins and earnings volatility
Despite stronger top-line and gross margin recovery, low net margins mean modest revenue gains translate into limited bottom-line improvement. This constrains retained earnings for reinvestment and leaves results sensitive to credit costs, merchandise margins, or cost inflation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained FCF (~$349M TTM) and double-digit FCF growth provide durable internal funding to pay the dividend, reduce debt, and invest in technology. Reliable cash conversion improves resilience versus earnings volatility and supports multi-quarter capital allocation priorities.
Read all positive factors
Upbound Group (UPBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.12B
Dividend Yield8.88%
Average Volume (3M)872.11K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth7.67%
EPS Growth-32.70%
CountryUS
Employees11,970
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.08
Shares Outstanding58,117,603
10 Day Avg. Volume798,998
30 Day Avg. Volume872,109
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.21
P/FCF Ratio4.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.00Price Target Upside55.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.88B
Upbound Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Upbound Group, Inc., an omni-channel platform company, leases household durable goods to customers on a lease-to-own basis in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. The company operates in four segments: Rent-A-Center Business, Acima, Mexico,...
How the Company Makes Money
Upbound Group makes money primarily by earning revenue from lease-to-own and point-of-sale lease/financing transactions that allow customers to obtain merchandise while paying over time. Under the Rent-A-Center model, the company acquires (or sour...
Upbound Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive tone overall: management reported modest consolidated revenue growth, stronger profitability (EBITDA and EPS), solid cash generation and improved portfolio health driven by underwriting actions. Brigit delivered strong top-line and EBITDA growth and Acima and Rent‑A‑Center showed meaningful improvements in loss performance and margins despite volume impacts. Management reiterated full-year targets, emphasized disciplined capital allocation (dividend and deleveraging toward ~2x leverage), and highlighted strategic investments in technology and partnerships (Amazon, large furniture merchant) that should support future growth. Headwinds remain—primarily macro pressure on non‑prime consumers, a YoY decline in Acima GMV, Rent‑A‑Center revenue pressure, measured product rollout timing and expected legal/regulatory settlements—but these were presented as manageable and addressed through conservative underwriting and a focus on long-term unit economics.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Profitability Growth
Consolidated revenue of $1.2 billion, up 3.7% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $136 million, up nearly 8% YoY; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.08, up 8% YoY.
Negative Updates
Acima GMV Decline
Acima GMV ~$427 million, down ~6% YoY driven primarily by deliberate underwriting tightening and weaker discretionary demand; 2026 GMV expected flat to low-single-digit growth versus prior-year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue and Profitability Growth
Consolidated revenue of $1.2 billion, up 3.7% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $136 million, up nearly 8% YoY; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.08, up 8% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 consolidated targets of revenue of approximately $4.7–$4.95 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $500–$535 million, non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $4.00–$4.35 and roughly $200 million of free cash flow (the guide assumes ~ $70 million of non‑ordinary course legal/regulatory settlements and relatively flat CapEx to 2025). For Q2 2026 they expect consolidated revenue of $1.1–$1.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $120–$130 million and non‑GAAP EPS of $1.00–$1.10; they expect Q2 GMV to be down low‑ to mid‑single digits year‑over‑year but to improve sequentially and return to year‑over‑year growth in H2. Segment outlooks: Acima GMV and revenue flat to up low‑single digits with 2026 losses stabilizing in the low‑9% area and adjusted EBITDA margin finishing slightly above 2025; Brigit revenue growth of >30% to $265–$285 million with adjusted EBITDA of $50–$60 million (Brigit net advance loss rate roughly mid‑3% with Q1 near ~3.5%); Rent‑A‑Center revenue flat to down low‑single digits with EBITDA margins roughly flat to 2025. Capital priorities include targeting long‑term leverage near 2.0x (quarter‑end net debt ~ $1.4 billion and leverage 2.6x), quarter‑end liquidity of ~ $465 million, continuation of a $0.39/share quarterly dividend (~$23 million this quarter) and focus on deleveraging and selective reinvestment.Upbound Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.74B | 4.70B | 4.32B | 3.99B | 4.25B | 4.58B |
| Gross Profit | 2.14B | 1.62B | 2.08B | 2.02B | 2.08B | 2.24B |
| EBITDA | 1.06B | 273.03M | 339.01M | 290.54M | 283.05M | 435.01M |
| Net Income | 84.24M | 73.24M | 123.48M | -5.18M | 12.36M | 134.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.13B | 3.28B | 2.65B | 2.72B | 2.76B | 2.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 98.41M | 120.53M | 60.86M | 93.70M | 144.14M | 108.33M |
| Total Debt | 288.51M | 1.86B | 1.58B | 1.60B | 1.67B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.41B | 2.58B | 2.02B | 2.16B | 2.24B | 2.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 715.73M | 695.74M | 628.98M | 560.37M | 525.15M | 513.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 349.07M | 238.71M | 48.45M | 146.89M | 407.07M | 329.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 338.50M | 305.57M | 104.72M | 200.29M | 468.46M | 392.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -152.31M | -403.73M | -41.51M | -50.96M | -62.33M | -1.34B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -196.38M | 156.47M | -93.52M | -202.12M | -370.71M | 892.85M |
Upbound Group Technical Analysis
Positive
19.91
Price Trends
19.03
Positive
18.53
Positive
20.18
Negative
Market Momentum
0.16
Negative
63.37
Neutral
81.46
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.13, above the 50-day MA of 19.03, and below the 200-day MA of 20.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.46 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPBD.
Upbound Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $1.56B | 22.71 | 31.88% | 2.66% | 20.89% | 18.40% | |
69 Neutral | $1.12B | ― | 10.66% | 8.88% | 7.67% | -32.70% | |
63 Neutral | $1.13B | -40.34 | 62.49% | ― | 13.03% | 7.07% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $1.04B | -17.26 | -32.90% | ― | 14.68% | 11.55% |
* Technology Sector Average
UPBD
Upbound Group
19.19
-3.23
-14.40%
PRCH
Porch Group
10.31
4.06
64.96%
KARO
Karooooo
50.40
6.70
15.33%
AMPL
Amplitude
7.79
-1.63
-17.30%
Upbound Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Upbound Group Posts Solid Q1 Results, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Upbound Group reported its first-quarter 2026 results, posting 3.7% year-over-year consolidated revenue growth to $1.2 billion and strong cash generation with $171 million in operating cash flow. Segment performance was mixed bu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Upbound Group Posts Strong 2025 Results, Sets 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Upbound Group reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting 11% year-over-year consolidated revenue growth to $1.2 billion and strong performance across its key brands. Acima delivered its ninth consecu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.