SEMrush Holdings (SEMR) AI Stock Analysis

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SEMrush Holdings

(NYSE:SEMR)

Rating:56Neutral

Price Target:

$8.00

▲(12.36% Upside)

SEMrush Holdings' overall stock score is driven by strong revenue growth and strategic focus on high-growth segments like enterprise and AI. However, profitability challenges, bearish technical indicators, and a negative valuation weigh heavily on the score. The earnings call provided some optimism with a share repurchase program, but near-term headwinds remain significant.

Positive Factors

Capital Utilization

A $150mm share repurchase program was announced, which is seen as a reasonable use of capital.

Growth Drivers

AI and Enterprise traction are the most significant growth drivers for the company.

Revenue Growth

Enterprise SEO continues to be a highlight with approximately 200 customers now spending an average revenue per customer of around $60k, which is 20% higher than Analyst Day expectations.

Negative Factors

Customer Base

Weakness in the smallest segment and an increase in paid-search cost per click resulted in a decline in overall customer count.

Earnings Outlook

A slight Q2 revenue beat was overshadowed by FY25 targets coming down 140 bps to +18% YoY.

Stock Volatility

The stock has been quite volatile this year, rising >50% half way through mid-Feb, only to now have declined >50% from peak levels.

SEMrush Holdings (SEMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.06B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.09M

Price to Earnings (P/E)182.6

Beta (1Y)1.63

Revenue Growth22.16%

EPS Growth-107.92%

CountryUS

Employees1,561

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength98

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.07

Shares Outstanding127,163,650

10 Day Avg. Volume1,486,257

30 Day Avg. Volume1,090,777

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.28

Price to Book (P/B)6.75

Price to Sales (P/S)4.60

P/FCF Ratio40.12

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.67

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.28

Enterprise Value/Ebitda150.98

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$10.80

Price Target Upside51.69% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

SEMrush Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSemrush Holdings, Inc. develops an online visibility management software-as-a-service platform worldwide. The company enables companies to identify and reach the right audience for their content through the right channels. Its platform enables the company's customers to understand trends and act upon insights to enhance the online visibility, and drive traffic to their websites and social media pages, as well as online listings, distribute targeted content to their customers, and measure the digital marketing campaigns. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes MoneySEMrush generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for access to its SaaS platform. Customers can choose from various subscription tiers, each offering different levels of access to SEMrush’s tools and features. The company also offers custom solutions for larger enterprises requiring more comprehensive services. Key revenue streams include individual and business subscriptions, with options for monthly or annual billing. SEMrush benefits from a high customer retention rate due to the value and insights its platform provides. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships with other digital marketing firms or technology providers to enhance its service offerings and expand its customer base, further contributing to its revenue growth.

SEMrush Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Customers

Customers
Tracks the number of active customers, providing a clear view of market penetration and the effectiveness of SEMrush’s sales and marketing strategies.

Chart InsightsSEMrush Holdings has shown consistent growth in its customer base, reaching 118,000 by Q1 2025. This is bolstered by a strategic focus on enterprise clients, as evidenced by a significant increase in high-value deals and enterprise SEO customers. However, challenges persist in the lower market segment due to macroeconomic pressures, which could impact future growth. The company's emphasis on product development, including AI solutions, aims to sustain momentum and drive further expansion in 2025.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

SEMrush Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -22.69%|

Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Semrush demonstrated strong growth in its enterprise and AI segments, with notable revenue and customer expansion. However, challenges in the lower market segment and increased costs in paid search acquisition led to a downward adjustment in revenue guidance. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, underscored by a new share repurchase program.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth

Semrush reported revenue of $108.9 million for Q2 2025, representing a 20% year-over-year growth.

Enterprise Segment Performance

The Enterprise SEO solution became the largest contributor to revenue growth, with enterprise accounts increasing significantly and the number of customers paying over $50,000 annually growing by 83%.

AI Product Success

Semrush's AI toolkit achieved $3 million ARR in a few months, and the enterprise AI search product, AI optimization, gained 30 customers with an ARR of nearly $1 million.

Positive Operating Margin

The company achieved a non-GAAP operating margin of 11% for the quarter.

Share Repurchase Program

Semrush announced a $150 million share repurchase program, demonstrating confidence in the company's future growth.

Negative Updates

Softness in Lower Market Segment

The company experienced continued softness in the lower-end market segment, including freelancers and less sophisticated users, which historically have higher churn rates.

Increased Paid Search Costs

There was a dramatic increase in paid search cost per click, which increased the cost to acquire lower-value customers.

Adjusted Revenue Guidance

Full-year 2025 revenue guidance was adjusted down to a range of $443 million to $446 million from the previous range of $448 million to $453 million.

Currency Exchange Headwinds

The company absorbed a significant foreign exchange headwind due to a weaker U.S. dollar, impacting their operating margin.

Company Guidance

During the call, Semrush Holdings provided guidance for the third quarter and full year of 2025. For the third quarter, the company expects revenue to range between $111.1 million and $112.1 million, reflecting approximately 15% year-over-year growth, with a non-GAAP operating margin of about 11.5%. For the full year 2025, Semrush adjusted its revenue guidance to a range of $443 million to $446 million, representing around 18% growth at the midpoint, down from the previous guidance of $448 million to $453 million. The company maintained its full-year guidance for a non-GAAP operating margin and free cash flow margin, both at 12%. This guidance incorporates a $9 million expense headwind due to foreign exchange rate movements, as approximately 30% of the company's expenses are denominated in euros. Despite near-term revenue headwinds, Semrush emphasized its strategic focus on high-growth segments like enterprise and AI, contributing to a positive outlook for sustainable growth.

SEMrush Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

SEMrush Holdings exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and improving profitability. The robust equity position and efficient cash flow management are notable strengths. However, the volatility in operating expenses and growth in liabilities require monitoring.

Income Statement

Positive

SEMrush Holdings has shown robust revenue growth, with an impressive increase of approximately 55% from 2020 to 2025. The company has transitioned from negative to positive net income, indicating improved profitability. Gross profit margins have remained strong, around 80-82%, showcasing efficiency in cost management. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have been less stable, pointing to potential volatility in operating expenses.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet reflects a healthy equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio remaining low due to minimal debt levels. The equity ratio is strong, indicating financial stability. Despite these strengths, the growth in total liabilities over the periods suggests careful monitoring is necessary to maintain this stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

SEMrush Holdings demonstrates solid cash flow management with consistent positive free cash flow growth in recent periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, signaling efficient conversion of profits into cash. However, fluctuations in investing cash flows warrant attention to ensure long-term capital allocation efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	413.96M	376.81M	307.68M	254.32M	188.00M	124.88M
Gross Profit	337.11M	311.34M	255.35M	205.76M	146.07M	94.94M
EBITDA	7.32M	18.38M	-306.00K	-19.03M	1.05M	-4.66M
Net Income	-1.28M	8.24M	950.00K	-33.85M	-3.29M	-7.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	424.95M	390.94M	331.49M	298.69M	300.07M	54.96M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	258.55M	235.57M	238.57M	237.54M	269.67M	35.53M
Total Debt	12.82M	12.27M	14.61M	12.62M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	136.78M	124.59M	107.17M	98.79M	74.53M	61.80M
Stockholders Equity	279.05M	256.60M	219.15M	199.90M	225.54M	-6.84M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	37.15M	43.19M	335.00K	-15.56M	19.98M	2.45M
Operating Cash Flow	42.87M	47.00M	7.99M	-9.62M	23.76M	5.85M
Investing Cash Flow	-69.06M	-58.22M	-29.07M	-179.83M	-4.63M	-6.08M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.77M	1.87M	-19.00K	-345.00K	215.32M	-1.67M

SEMrush Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price7.12

Price Trends

50DMA

9.10

Negative

100DMA

9.46

Negative

200DMA

11.65

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.50

Positive

RSI

32.80

Neutral

STOCH

6.18

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEMR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.79, below the 50-day MA of 9.10, and below the 200-day MA of 11.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.18 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SEMR.

SEMrush Holdings Risk Analysis

SEMrush Holdings disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. SEMrush Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

SEMrush Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CXM	72 Outperform	$2.10B	19.79	17.50%	―	6.75%	97.06%
DSP	70 Neutral	$780.21M	414.29	4.15%	―	30.64%	―
SPT	63 Neutral	$809.85M	―	-32.50%	―	14.79%	27.52%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.87B	6.13	-9.30%	2.06%	7.63%	-6.38%
AMPL	59 Neutral	$1.49B	―	-33.99%	―	9.93%	-11.15%
SEMR	56 Neutral	$1.06B	182.58	-0.50%	―	22.16%	-107.92%
PRO	56 Neutral	$704.76M	―	29.80%	―	7.96%	83.62%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SEMR

SEMrush Holdings

7.12

-6.74

-48.63%

PRO

PROS Holdings

14.10

-4.91

-25.83%

SPT

Sprout Social

13.37

-18.74

-58.36%

DSP

Viant Technology

12.00

2.47

25.92%

CXM

Sprinklr

7.90

-1.12

-12.42%

AMPL

Amplitude

11.53

2.91

33.76%

SEMrush Holdings Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Semrush Holdings Announces $150 Million Share Buyback

Positive

Aug 4, 2025

On August 4, 2025, Semrush Holdings announced a $150 million share repurchase program for its Class A common stock, reflecting confidence in its business and commitment to shareholder value. The company reported a 20% year-over-year revenue increase to $108.9 million for the second quarter of 2025, despite a loss from operations. Semrush continues to expand its offerings, particularly in AI and enterprise solutions, and was named a Leader in SEO Solutions by Forrester.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEMR) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SEMrush Holdings stock, see the SEMR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

SEMrush Holdings Amends CFO Employment Agreement

Neutral

Jun 11, 2025

On June 11, 2025, SEMrush Holdings, Inc. amended the employment agreement with CFO Brian Mulroy, enhancing severance benefits and salary terms. Additionally, at the annual stockholders’ meeting on June 5, 2025, key proposals were approved, including director elections, ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors, and annual advisory votes on executive compensation, reflecting shareholder support for the company’s governance practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEMR) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SEMrush Holdings stock, see the SEMR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2025