SEMrush Holdings (SEMR) AI Stock Analysis

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SEMrush Holdings

(NYSE:SEMR)

Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:

$9.50

▲(4.40%Upside)

SEMrush Holdings' overall score reflects strong earnings performance and financial health, countered by bearish technical indicators and high valuation concerns. The company's focus on enterprise growth and AI innovation is promising, but macroeconomic pressures and retention issues could challenge future growth.

Positive Factors

Enterprise SEO Growth

Enterprise SEO continues to be a highlight with approximately 200 customers now spending an average revenue per customer of around $60k, which is 20% higher than Analyst Day expectations.

Product Offerings

New product offerings, like the company's AIO offering, are expected to drive upsell and cross-sell opportunities.

Negative Factors

Customer Churn

The platform strategy is seeing strong healthy growth, but low-end clients continue to churn at a faster than anticipated pace.

FX Expenses and ARR

The stock is trading down on new FX expenses along with lighter than anticipated customer and Net ARR additions.

SEMrush Holdings (SEMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.36B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)974.30K

Price to Earnings (P/E)196.8

Beta (1Y)1.59

Revenue Growth22.75%

EPS Growth-47.45%

CountryUS

Employees1,561

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength87

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.07

Shares Outstanding127,163,650

10 Day Avg. Volume906,526

30 Day Avg. Volume974,305

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-19.95

Price to Book (P/B)8.89

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio5.81K

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.26

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.69

Enterprise Value/Ebitda32.81

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$15.40

Price Target Upside69.23% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

SEMrush Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSemrush Holdings, Inc. develops an online visibility management software-as-a-service platform worldwide. The company enables companies to identify and reach the right audience for their content through the right channels. Its platform enables the company's customers to understand trends and act upon insights to enhance the online visibility, and drive traffic to their websites and social media pages, as well as online listings, distribute targeted content to their customers, and measure the digital marketing campaigns. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes MoneySEMrush generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for access to its SaaS platform. Customers can choose from various subscription tiers, each offering different levels of access to SEMrush’s tools and features. The company also offers custom solutions for larger enterprises requiring more comprehensive services. Key revenue streams include individual and business subscriptions, with options for monthly or annual billing. SEMrush benefits from a high customer retention rate due to the value and insights its platform provides. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships with other digital marketing firms or technology providers to enhance its service offerings and expand its customer base, further contributing to its revenue growth.

SEMrush Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Customers

Customers
Tracks the number of active customers, providing a clear view of market penetration and the effectiveness of SEMrush’s sales and marketing strategies.

Chart InsightsSEMrush Holdings has shown consistent growth in its customer base, reaching 118,000 by Q1 2025. This is bolstered by a strategic focus on enterprise clients, as evidenced by a significant increase in high-value deals and enterprise SEO customers. However, challenges persist in the lower market segment due to macroeconomic pressures, which could impact future growth. The company's emphasis on product development, including AI solutions, aims to sustain momentum and drive further expansion in 2025.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

SEMrush Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -10.96%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call was largely positive, highlighting strong revenue growth, successful product launches, and increased adoption of enterprise solutions. However, there are some concerns regarding exchange rate impacts and retention metrics.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth

Revenue for Q1 2025 was $105 million, representing over 22% year-over-year growth and exceeding the high-end of the guidance.

Enterprise SEO Solution Success

The Enterprise SEO Solution has nearly 200 paying customers with an average ARR per customer of approximately $60,000, almost 20% higher than previous expectations.

AI Product Adoption

AI products, including the AI Toolkit, have grown to over $4 million in ARR. The AI Toolkit quickly became one of the fastest-growing new products in the company's history.

Positive Financial Performance

Non-GAAP operating margin was 11.6%, and free cash flow margin increased by 360 basis points over the previous year.

Increase in High-Value Customers

The number of customers paying over $50,000 increased 86% year-over-year to 388, and over 5,000 customers are paying over $10,000, which grew approximately 40% year-over-year.

Negative Updates

Exchange Rate Impact

Incremental $8 million expense headwind due to fluctuations in exchange rates, impacting full-year non-GAAP operating margin guidance.

Seasonal ARR Dynamics

ARR growth for the quarter was slightly below 20%, attributed to seasonality and a strategic focus on higher value customers, which may affect perceived growth momentum.

Dollar-Based Net Revenue Retention

Dollar-based net revenue retention was 106%, slightly lower than expected, suggesting some retention challenges despite strong enterprise momentum.

Company Guidance

During the Semrush First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company outlined its guidance for the upcoming periods and highlighted key performance metrics. Semrush reported a Q1 revenue of $105 million, marking a 22% year-over-year increase and surpassing their guidance's high-end. The non-GAAP operating margin stood at 11.6%, and the free cash flow margin improved by 360 basis points compared to the previous year. Their Enterprise SEO Solution gained traction with nearly 200 customers, each averaging $60,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR), which exceeded prior expectations by 20%. The company's AI products, including the newly launched AI Toolkit, contributed over $4 million in ARR, positioning it as one of the fastest-growing products in Semrush's history. For Q2 2025, Semrush expects revenue between $108.2 million and $109.2 million, aiming for a 20% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, while maintaining a non-GAAP operating margin of around 11%. The full-year 2025 revenue guidance remains at $448 million to $453 million, with a non-GAAP operating margin goal of approximately 12%, despite an $8 million headwind due to exchange rate shifts. The company's cash and short-term investments rose to $261.8 million, up by $26.2 million, while ARR for the quarter reached $424.7 million, representing a 20% year-over-year increase. Semrush's calculated average ARR per customer rose to over $3,600, a 14% year-over-year growth, and the number of customers exceeding $50,000 in payments grew by 86% to 388. The company is focused on expanding its enterprise segment and further leveraging AI advancements to drive future growth.

SEMrush Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

SEMrush Holdings demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and improving profitability. The company maintains a robust equity position and efficient cash flow management. However, attention is needed to manage operating expenses and monitor liability growth to sustain financial stability.

Income Statement

Positive

SEMrush Holdings has shown robust revenue growth, with an impressive increase of approximately 55% from 2020 to 2025. The company has transitioned from negative to positive net income, indicating improved profitability. Gross profit margins have remained strong, around 80-82%, showcasing efficiency in cost management. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have been less stable, pointing to potential volatility in operating expenses.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet reflects a healthy equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio remaining low due to minimal debt levels. The equity ratio is strong, indicating financial stability. Despite these strengths, the growth in total liabilities over the periods suggests careful monitoring is necessary to maintain this stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

SEMrush Holdings demonstrates solid cash flow management with consistent positive free cash flow growth in recent periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, signaling efficient conversion of profits into cash. However, fluctuations in investing cash flows warrant attention to ensure long-term capital allocation efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	396.02M	376.81M	307.68M	254.32M	188.00M	124.88M
Gross Profit	325.32M	311.34M	255.35M	205.76M	146.07M	94.94M
EBITDA	15.99M	18.38M	-306.00K	-19.03M	1.05M	-4.66M
Net Income	6.95M	8.24M	950.00K	-33.85M	-3.29M	-7.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	300.07M	390.94M	331.49M	298.69M	300.07M	54.96M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	269.67M	235.57M	238.57M	237.54M	269.67M	35.53M
Total Debt	0.00	12.27M	14.61M	12.62M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	74.53M	124.59M	107.17M	98.79M	74.53M	61.80M
Stockholders Equity	225.54M	256.60M	219.15M	199.90M	225.54M	-6.84M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	44.71M	43.19M	335.00K	-15.56M	19.98M	2.45M
Operating Cash Flow	54.33M	47.00M	7.99M	-9.62M	23.76M	5.85M
Investing Cash Flow	-31.93M	-58.22M	-29.07M	-179.83M	-4.63M	-6.08M
Financing Cash Flow	1.09M	1.87M	-19.00K	-345.00K	215.32M	-1.67M

SEMrush Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price9.10

Price Trends

50DMA

9.87

Negative

100DMA

10.64

Negative

200DMA

12.35

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.24

Negative

RSI

44.20

Neutral

STOCH

68.45

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEMR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.31, below the 50-day MA of 9.87, and below the 200-day MA of 12.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SEMR.

SEMrush Holdings Risk Analysis

SEMrush Holdings disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. SEMrush Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

SEMrush Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (49)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CXM	78 Outperform	$2.23B	20.98	17.50%	―	6.75%	97.06%
SPT	66 Neutral	$1.21B	―	-36.95%	―	17.79%	16.49%
DSP	65 Neutral	$862.17M	457.81	4.15%	―	30.64%	―
PRO	64 Neutral	$775.21M	―	29.80%	―	7.97%	74.22%
SEMR	63 Neutral	$1.36B	196.77	2.81%	―	22.75%	-47.45%
AMPL	63 Neutral	$1.60B	―	-32.87%	―	8.56%	-4.21%
Sector *	49 Neutral	C$2.96B	2.13	-80.92%	2.67%	12.55%	-24.47%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SEMR

SEMrush Holdings

9.15

-4.39

-32.42%

PRO

PROS Holdings

16.61

-10.03

-37.65%

SPT

Sprout Social

21.20

-15.03

-41.48%

DSP

Viant Technology

13.78

3.80

38.08%

CXM

Sprinklr

8.76

-1.20

-12.05%

AMPL

Amplitude

12.72

4.13

48.08%

SEMrush Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

SEMrush Holdings Amends CFO Employment Agreement

Neutral

Jun 11, 2025

On June 11, 2025, SEMrush Holdings, Inc. amended the employment agreement with CFO Brian Mulroy, enhancing severance benefits and salary terms. Additionally, at the annual stockholders’ meeting on June 5, 2025, key proposals were approved, including director elections, ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors, and annual advisory votes on executive compensation, reflecting shareholder support for the company’s governance practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEMR) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SEMrush Holdings stock, see the SEMR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

SEMrush Holdings Expands Board with New Director

Positive

May 5, 2025

On April 29, 2025, Semrush Holdings, Inc. announced the expansion of its Board of Directors from eight to nine members, appointing Caroline Tsay as an independent director effective May 1, 2025. Tsay, who brings over 20 years of experience in the technology sector, is expected to contribute significantly to the company’s strategic direction as it accelerates innovation at the intersection of AI and marketing. Her appointment is anticipated to enrich boardroom discussions and support Semrush’s continued growth.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 14, 2025