Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH)
NASDAQ:PRCH
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Porch Group
(NASDAQ:PRCH)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(34.15% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is driven by improving operating execution and strong cash generation, reinforced by a positive earnings call with raised 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance. Offsetting this is significant balance-sheet risk from high leverage and thin/negative equity, plus a stretched technical setup (RSI/Stoch elevated) and limited valuation support due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow in the trailing twelve months strengthens the firm’s ability to self-fund growth, support insurance statutory needs, and absorb working-capital swings. Durable cash conversion reduces reliance on external capital during housing cycles and supports strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
High leverage / thin equity
Material leverage and a thin/negative equity base constrain financial flexibility and increase default and covenant risk in downturns. For an insurance-heavy business, weak shareholder equity limits capacity to absorb claim volatility and raises sensitivity to adverse reserve or underwriting shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow in the trailing twelve months strengthens the firm’s ability to self-fund growth, support insurance statutory needs, and absorb working-capital swings. Durable cash conversion reduces reliance on external capital during housing cycles and supports strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors
Porch Group (PRCH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.11B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.35
Revenue Growth13.03%
EPS Growth7.07%
CountryUS
Employees729
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.04
Shares Outstanding105,854,390
10 Day Avg. Volume1,613,175
30 Day Avg. Volume1,217,506
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.69
Price to Book (P/B)-38.45
Price to Sales (P/S)1.96
P/FCF Ratio18.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.00Price Target Upside107.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$484.79M
Porch Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Porch Group, Inc. operates a software platform in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Vertical Software and Insurance. The Vertical Software segment provides software and services to home services companies and...
How the Company Makes Money
Porch Group generates revenue primarily through (1) software and SaaS-style fees from providing vertical software products to home-service professionals (including subscriptions, licensing, and related service fees where applicable), (2) transacti...
Porch Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Porch Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive view: strong, above-expectation Q1 results driven by Insurance Services (50% revenue growth), meaningful expansion in distribution and conversion (agency branches +181%, quote volume +69%, conversion nearly doubled), raised full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance, and improved capital/reserve economics (statutory surplus +59% and ~20% lower excess reinsurance costs). Offsetting items include flat Software & Data revenue due to cyclical housing weakness, Consumer Services at breakeven, a decline in average premium per policy from mix shift, and the normal seasonal weather risk in Q2. Overall the company demonstrated durable underwriting performance, expanding margins in the core insurance engine, and a plan to scale profitably—positives materially outweigh the cyclical and mix-related headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and Profitability Results
Q1 Porch shareholder interest revenue of $109M, up 29% year-over-year; Q1 gross profit $91M with an 83% gross margin; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $20M (18% margin).
Negative Updates
Software & Data Revenue Stagnation
Software and Data revenue of $22M was relatively flat year-over-year, reflecting near-trough U.S. housing activity and per-transaction pricing exposure to housing volumes.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and Profitability Results
Q1 Porch shareholder interest revenue of $109M, up 29% year-over-year; Q1 gross profit $91M with an 83% gross margin; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $20M (18% margin).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 targets to a $600M organic RWP goal (≈25% YoY) and lifted Porch shareholder interest guidance to $495–507M revenue (≈20% YoY at midpoint), $401–413M gross profit (≈81% gross margin at midpoint) and $103–109M adjusted EBITDA (≈21% adjusted EBITDA margin at midpoint). The raise was driven by strong Q1 results: RWP $114M (+18% YoY), revenue $109M (+29%), gross profit $91M (83% GM), adjusted EBITDA $20M (18% margin); Insurance Services revenue $75M (+50%), gross profit $64M (85% GM) and adj. EBITDA $27M (37% margin), with adj. EBITDA/RWP 24% in Q1 (TTM 20%). KPIs underpinning the outlook included ~48k policies written (+33% YoY), RWP per policy $2,386, producing agency branch locations +181% YoY, quote volumes +69% YoY, conversion rates nearly doubled YoY while premium per new customer was only ~5% lower YoY and new‑customer RWP was ~3x prior year; statutory surplus was $165M (+59% YoY, +$61M) supporting >$800M of premium (>$1.25B including ~+$100M non‑admitted assets), excess‑of‑loss reinsurance costs down ~20%, Porch shareholder cash+investments $134M with $20M cash from ops in Q1 and the Reciprocal holding >$300M of cash and investments.Porch Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 482.80M | 482.41M | 437.85M | 430.30M | 275.95M | 192.43M |
| Gross Profit | 349.40M | 339.99M | 212.22M | 210.06M | 168.37M | 133.71M |
| EBITDA | 96.83M | 98.92M | 37.35M | -77.07M | -119.06M | -94.74M |
| Net Income | -8.67M | 15.32M | -32.83M | -133.93M | -156.56M | -106.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 0.00 | 797.42M | 813.97M | 899.39M | 1.05B | 1.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 65.80M | 191.74M | 294.01M | 251.58M | 324.99M |
| Total Debt | 399.05M | 392.83M | 403.94M | 435.74M | 444.30M | 417.43M |
| Total Liabilities | 780.27M | 775.04M | 857.19M | 935.08M | 969.70M | 821.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 26.31M | -24.62M | -43.23M | -35.68M | 79.35M | 217.04M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 72.39M | 52.06M | -32.20M | 23.83M | -28.19M | -39.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 90.62M | 66.42M | -31.68M | 33.93M | -17.74M | -34.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -52.94M | -71.92M | -45.06M | -56.25M | -79.68M | -263.43M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -24.33M | -22.17M | -23.71M | 90.95M | 1.23M | 415.55M |
Porch Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
8.20
Price Trends
7.58
Positive
8.29
Negative
11.58
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
62.05
Neutral
80.11
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRCH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.27, above the 50-day MA of 7.58, and below the 200-day MA of 11.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.11 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PRCH.
Porch Group Risk Analysis
Porch Group disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Porch Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Porch Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $1.02B | 7.22 | 19.47% | ― | 0.66% | 13.68% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $2.20B | 16.37 | 12.93% | 0.56% | 12.22% | 24.04% | |
64 Neutral | $1.24B | 69.87 | 3.93% | ― | 7.64% | -80.72% | |
63 Neutral | $1.11B | -40.34 | 62.49% | ― | 13.03% | 7.07% |
* Financial Sector Average
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Porch Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Porch Group Raises Outlook After Strong Q1 Insurance Growth
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28, 2026, Porch Group reported that first-quarter 2026 results through March 31 exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in its Insurance Services segment and premium growth. Revenue attributable to Porch shareholders reached $...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Porch Group Posts Strong Q4 2025 Under Reciprocal Model
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
Porch Group reported that for the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue attributable to its shareholders reached $112.3 million, with a net loss of $3.5 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $23.5 million, while consolidated revenue was $124.3 million and net ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.