Porch Group (PRCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $930.43M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.81M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.45
• Revenue Growth: -2.13%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 729
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 105,371,350
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,442,727
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,807,541
• PEG Ratio: -0.69
• Price to Book (P/B): -38.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.86
• 1Y Price Target: $16.83
• Price Target Upside: 109.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): <0.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $480.60M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▲(5.59% Upside)

The score is primarily driven by a meaningful 2025 operating and cash-flow turnaround but weighed down by a pressured balance sheet (high debt and negative equity). Earnings-call guidance and operational momentum are constructive, while technicals remain weak versus key moving averages and valuation support is limited due to a negative P/E and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Material free cash flow turnaround

The meaningful 2025 free cash flow turnaround demonstrates the business can self-fund growth and rebuild capital without immediate external funding. Sustained FCF improves resiliency, supports reciprocal capital builds and investments in distribution, and reduces reliance on refinancing if maintained.

Strengthened reciprocal capital and underwriting

A materially larger statutory surplus and combined capital provide regulatory capacity to write substantially more premium. Coupled with industry-leading loss ratios, this capital base lets Porch scale underwriting organically, retain economics, and finance growth without immediate external equity injections.

Product & distribution alignment (Porch Insurance launch)

Launching Porch Insurance and shifting to simpler commission/fee economics aligns product, distribution and unit economics. Proprietary insurance offering and improved agent economics are structural levers to boost conversion, retention and lifetime revenue per customer across the home-services ecosystem.

Negative Factors

High leverage and negative equity

Elevated debt and a negative shareholders' equity position constrain financial flexibility and raise refinancing and covenant risk. Persistent leverage limits the company's ability to invest or absorb underwriting/cash setbacks and increases reliance on operating performance to deleverage over time.

Historic profitability and margin volatility

Prior multi-year losses and wide margin swings indicate the company has not yet demonstrated consistent earnings durability. If underwriting outcomes, software costs, or top-line mix shift, the firm could revert to losses, undermining capital accumulation and long-term planning.

Exposure to housing market cyclicality

A sizable portion of Porch's software and consumer revenue depends on housing transactions; prolonged softness in purchase activity reduces addressable transactions and creates cyclicality in revenue. Insurance growth may offset some weakness, but ecosystem monetization remains exposed to housing trends.

Porch Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Porch Group, Inc. operates a software platform in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Vertical Software and Insurance. The Vertical Software segment provides software and services to home services companies and gives early access to homebuyers and homeowners. It offers services to home services companies, such as home inspectors, consumers, such as homebuyers and homeowners, service providers, such as moving, insurance, warranty, and security companies, and TV/Internet providers. This segment operates through Floify, HireAHelper, ISN, iRoofing, Palm-Tech, Porch.com, Rynoh, and V12 brands. The Insurance segment offers property related insurance policies through our own risk-bearing carrier and independent agency as well as risk-bearing home warranty company. This segment operates though American Home Protect, Elite Insurance Group, and Homeowners of America brands. In addition, the company provides property and casualty, home, auto, flood, and umbrella insurance products; and contractor services. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Porch Group generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by charging service professionals for leads generated through its platform. This includes subscription fees for premium services, pay-per-lead models, and other performance-based advertising solutions. Additionally, Porch Group partners with various home service providers and manufacturers, allowing them to reach a broader audience through the Porch platform. The company also earns revenue from its software solutions, which help service providers manage their operations more efficiently. Partnerships with companies in related sectors, such as insurance and real estate, further enhance its revenue opportunities by providing integrated services to homeowners.

Porch Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating results improved sharply in 2025 (positive net income, strong gross margin expansion, and positive free cash flow), but the balance sheet is a major constraint with high debt and negative shareholders’ equity, and prior years showed meaningful earnings and cash-flow volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded meaningfully over the period (from ~$73M in 2020 to ~$482M in 2025), with 2025 showing a clear profitability inflection as net income turned positive (~$15M) after several years of losses. Gross margin improved sharply in 2025 (~70% vs. ~48% in 2024), supporting the earnings rebound. Offsetting this, profitability has been volatile—losses were substantial in 2022–2024 and margins swung widely—so the track record of consistent earnings power is still developing.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains high with total debt still near ~$393M in 2025, and the capital structure is pressured by negative shareholders’ equity in 2023–2025 (2025: about -$25M). This limits balance-sheet flexibility and raises refinancing/credit risk despite improving operating results. Total assets are sizeable (~$797M in 2025), but the negative equity position and elevated debt load are the key constraints.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved materially in 2025, with operating cash flow of ~$66M and free cash flow of ~$52M, a sharp turnaround from negative cash flow in 2024. The strong step-up in free cash flow provides greater self-funding capacity and helps de-risk the business model. The main weakness is variability year-to-year (negative operating and free cash flow in 2024), indicating cash conversion is not yet consistently durable.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	482.41M	437.85M	430.30M	275.95M	192.43M
Gross Profit	339.99M	212.22M	210.06M	168.37M	133.71M
EBITDA	57.19M	37.35M	-77.07M	-119.06M	-94.74M
Net Income	15.32M	-32.83M	-133.93M	-156.56M	-106.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	797.42M	813.97M	899.39M	1.05B	1.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	65.80M	191.74M	294.01M	251.58M	324.99M
Total Debt	392.83M	403.94M	435.74M	444.30M	417.43M
Total Liabilities	775.04M	857.19M	935.08M	969.70M	821.70M
Stockholders Equity	-24.62M	-43.23M	-35.68M	79.35M	217.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	52.06M	-32.20M	23.83M	-28.19M	-39.47M
Operating Cash Flow	66.42M	-31.68M	33.93M	-17.74M	-34.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-71.92M	-45.06M	-56.25M	-79.68M	-263.43M
Financing Cash Flow	-22.17M	-23.71M	90.95M	1.23M	415.55M

Porch Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRCH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.81, below the 50-day MA of 8.64, and below the 200-day MA of 12.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PRCH.

Porch Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YALA	81 Outperform	$1.13B	8.85	20.19%	―	5.80%	12.20%
CXM	73 Outperform	$1.37B	13.24	21.35%	―	6.48%	168.94%
PLUS	64 Neutral	$2.21B	17.19	12.23%	0.56%	6.94%	9.98%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
PRCH	56 Neutral	$930.43M	-188.02	―	―	-2.13%	―

Porch Group Corporate Events

Porch Group Posts Strong Q4 2025 Under Reciprocal Model

Porch Group reported that for the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue attributable to its shareholders reached $112.3 million, with a net loss of $3.5 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $23.5 million, while consolidated revenue was $124.3 million and net income was $4.3 million. The results, released on February 11, 2026, capped a strong first year under its Reciprocal Exchange model, highlighted by 6% gross profit growth, 21% Adjusted EBITDA margin for shareholder interests, positive operating cash flow, and a best‑in‑class 27% gross loss ratio at the Reciprocal.

Operationally in 2025, Porch saw top‑of‑funnel momentum with active agencies and quote volumes more than doubling year over year in the fourth quarter, and late‑year actions drove sharp acceleration in Reciprocal Written Premium from new customers in November and December. The Reciprocal insurance entity finished 2025 with $480.9 million in written premium, 175,000 policies written, and statutory surplus of $155.1 million, underscoring strengthened capitalization and positioning the company to scale its homeowners insurance platform further.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRCH) stock is a Buy with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Porch Group stock, see the PRCH Stock Forecast page.