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Porch Group
(NASDAQ:PRCH)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(30.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven mainly by improving operating performance and strong cash generation, reinforced by a bullish earnings-call outlook with raised revenue and EBITDA guidance and strong insurance-services KPIs. The rating is held back by balance-sheet fragility (high debt and thin equity) and limited valuation support due to losses (negative P/E), despite a favorable price trend versus major moving averages.
Positive Factors
Strong operating cash flow
Sustained TTM operating cash flow (~$96M) and FCF (~$84M) materially improve Porch's liquidity and optionality. Durable cash generation supports insurance reciprocal capitalization, organic growth investments, and limited buybacks without reliance on equity raises, aiding de-leveraging and resilience over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High leverage and thin equity
A debt load near $405M against a very thin shareholder equity cushion (~$19M, historically negative) leaves limited capital buffer. This structural leverage elevates refinancing and covenant risk, constrains strategic flexibility, and amplifies losses or underwriting stress, making balance‑sheet repair a medium‑term priority.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating cash flow
Sustained TTM operating cash flow (~$96M) and FCF (~$84M) materially improve Porch's liquidity and optionality. Durable cash generation supports insurance reciprocal capitalization, organic growth investments, and limited buybacks without reliance on equity raises, aiding de-leveraging and resilience over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Porch Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Shows profit after direct costs for each segment, highlighting where Porch earns healthy margins versus where revenue is thin after costs. Helps identify which businesses are scalable and which rely on volume or expensive fulfillment, signaling where margin expansion or cost control could improve overall earnings.
Shows profit after direct costs for each segment, highlighting where Porch earns healthy margins versus where revenue is thin after costs. Helps identify which businesses are scalable and which rely on volume or expensive fulfillment, signaling where margin expansion or cost control could improve overall earnings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPorch Group (PRCH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.63B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.55
Revenue Growth15.79%
EPS Growth-125.94%
CountryUS
Employees799
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.12
Shares Outstanding113,519,840
10 Day Avg. Volume1,514,380
30 Day Avg. Volume2,012,217
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.12
Price to Book (P/B)-38.45
Price to Sales (P/S)1.96
P/FCF Ratio18.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.38Price Target Upside46.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$501.76M
Porch Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Porch Group, Inc. functions as a technology company, delivering a comprehensive software platform across both the United States and Canada. Its business model is structured around two core segments: Vertical Software and Insurance. The Vertical So...
How the Company Makes Money
Porch Group generates revenue primarily through (1) software and data products sold to home-service professionals and enterprises and (2) transaction- and move-related monetization tied to homebuyers/homeowners.
1) Software and data revenue: Porc...
Porch Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive view: strong, above-expectation Q1 results driven by Insurance Services (50% revenue growth), meaningful expansion in distribution and conversion (agency branches +181%, quote volume +69%, conversion nearly doubled), raised full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance, and improved capital/reserve economics (statutory surplus +59% and ~20% lower excess reinsurance costs). Offsetting items include flat Software & Data revenue due to cyclical housing weakness, Consumer Services at breakeven, a decline in average premium per policy from mix shift, and the normal seasonal weather risk in Q2. Overall the company demonstrated durable underwriting performance, expanding margins in the core insurance engine, and a plan to scale profitably—positives materially outweigh the cyclical and mix-related headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and Profitability Results
Q1 Porch shareholder interest revenue of $109M, up 29% year-over-year; Q1 gross profit $91M with an 83% gross margin; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $20M (18% margin).
Negative Updates
Software & Data Revenue Stagnation
Software and Data revenue of $22M was relatively flat year-over-year, reflecting near-trough U.S. housing activity and per-transaction pricing exposure to housing volumes.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and Profitability Results
Q1 Porch shareholder interest revenue of $109M, up 29% year-over-year; Q1 gross profit $91M with an 83% gross margin; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $20M (18% margin).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 targets to a $600M organic RWP goal (≈25% YoY) and lifted Porch shareholder interest guidance to $495–507M revenue (≈20% YoY at midpoint), $401–413M gross profit (≈81% gross margin at midpoint) and $103–109M adjusted EBITDA (≈21% adjusted EBITDA margin at midpoint). The raise was driven by strong Q1 results: RWP $114M (+18% YoY), revenue $109M (+29%), gross profit $91M (83% GM), adjusted EBITDA $20M (18% margin); Insurance Services revenue $75M (+50%), gross profit $64M (85% GM) and adj. EBITDA $27M (37% margin), with adj. EBITDA/RWP 24% in Q1 (TTM 20%). KPIs underpinning the outlook included ~48k policies written (+33% YoY), RWP per policy $2,386, producing agency branch locations +181% YoY, quote volumes +69% YoY, conversion rates nearly doubled YoY while premium per new customer was only ~5% lower YoY and new‑customer RWP was ~3x prior year; statutory surplus was $165M (+59% YoY, +$61M) supporting >$800M of premium (>$1.25B including ~+$100M non‑admitted assets), excess‑of‑loss reinsurance costs down ~20%, Porch shareholder cash+investments $134M with $20M cash from ops in Q1 and the Reciprocal holding >$300M of cash and investments.Porch Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 504.39M | 482.41M | 437.85M | 430.30M | 275.95M | 192.43M |
| Gross Profit | 361.11M | 339.99M | 212.22M | 210.06M | 168.37M | 133.71M |
| EBITDA | 85.14M | 98.92M | 37.35M | -77.07M | -119.06M | -94.74M |
| Net Income | -5.65M | 15.32M | -32.83M | -133.93M | -156.56M | -106.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 815.96M | 797.42M | 813.97M | 899.39M | 1.05B | 1.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 54.14M | 65.80M | 191.74M | 294.01M | 251.58M | 324.99M |
| Total Debt | 405.28M | 392.83M | 403.94M | 435.74M | 444.30M | 417.43M |
| Total Liabilities | 799.62M | 775.04M | 857.19M | 935.08M | 969.70M | 821.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.37M | -24.62M | -43.23M | -35.68M | 79.35M | 217.04M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 83.67M | 52.06M | -32.20M | 23.83M | -28.19M | -39.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 96.32M | 66.42M | -31.68M | 33.93M | -17.74M | -34.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -72.37M | -71.92M | -45.06M | -56.25M | -79.68M | -263.43M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.24M | -22.17M | -23.71M | 90.95M | 1.23M | 415.55M |
Porch Group Technical Analysis
Positive
11.84
Price Trends
12.26
Positive
10.31
Positive
10.14
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
40.33
Neutral
4.99
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.55, below the 50-day MA of 12.26, and above the 200-day MA of 10.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.99 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PRCH.
Porch Group Risk Analysis
Porch Group disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Porch Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Porch Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $822.93M | 5.80 | 17.85% | ― | -2.25% | 4.06% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $1.63B | -117.48 | 140.84% | ― | 15.79% | -125.94% | |
65 Neutral | $2.35B | 18.82 | 12.69% | 1.15% | 19.74% | 20.52% | |
64 Neutral | $1.45B | 55.26 | 5.25% | ― | 8.10% | -73.21% |
* Financial Sector Average
PRCH
Porch Group
14.45
2.15
17.48%
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92.41
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50.27%
YALA
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5.39
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CXM
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Porch Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Porch Group Raises Guidance After Strong Q2 Results
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Porch Group reported second-quarter 2026 results that outpaced internal expectations, prompting the company to raise guidance for the rest of the year. Consolidated revenue rose 12% year over year to $140.9 million, with Porch-ow...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Porch Group Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Compensation
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
Porch Group, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders on June 10, 2026, with 90.2% of the company’s voting power represented, and shareholders elected eight directors to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, each receiving between 96.8% a...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Porch Group Subsidiary Buys Shares to Boost Capital
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 10, 2026, Porch Group subsidiary Porticus Reinsurance Ltd. bought about 2.1 million shares of Porch common stock from the Porch Reciprocal Exchange for $15 million in a privately negotiated transaction at $7.17 per share, after securing ap...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.