Porch Group (PRCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.45M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.66
• Revenue Growth: -6.81%
• EPS Growth: 85.11%
• Country: US
• Employees: 729
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 103,225,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,264,573
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,451,612
• PEG Ratio: -1.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.68
• 1Y Price Target: $10.20
• Price Target Upside: -6.08% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(5.89%Upside)

Despite strong momentum and promising earnings call results, Porch Group's overall score is tempered by financial performance challenges, with ongoing issues in profitability and negative cash flow. Valuation concerns also weigh down the score. However, recent corporate events and a positive technical outlook provide support.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Porch achieved its first positive EBITDA year in history before switching to a reciprocal model and including higher margin cash flow streams.

Growth and Expansion

Porch is in the early stages of expanding its insurance products and considering geographical expansion, potentially thriving due to its data advantage.

Market Position

Porch remains one of the top small cap ideas, and analysts would be buyers on any share weakness post announcement.

Negative Factors

Insurance Business Challenges

PRCH's insurance business warrants a discount until it can show independent scalability.

Stock Volatility

There is a possibility the stock may give back gains following presumed short covering.

Valuation Concerns

PRCH's unique structure, business mix, and high leverage make valuation complex.

Porch Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Porch Group, Inc. is a leading vertical software platform for the home services industry, operating primarily in the United States. The company provides a suite of software and services to home service companies, offering tools for project management, customer communication, and marketing. Porch Group's platform also connects homeowners with professionals for home improvement, maintenance, and repair services, streamlining the process of finding and hiring qualified service providers.

How the Company Makes Money

Porch Group makes money primarily through a combination of software subscription fees, service transaction revenues, and insurance-related services. The company's revenue model is anchored in its ability to offer comprehensive software solutions to home service businesses, which pay recurring subscription fees for access to Porch's tools and services. Additionally, Porch generates transaction-based revenue by facilitating connections between homeowners and service professionals, where it earns fees or commissions for successful job completions. The company also earns revenue from its insurance segment by providing homeowners insurance services, which can include policy underwriting and premium collection, either directly or through partnerships with insurance carriers. Significant partnerships with homebuilders, real estate companies, and insurance firms further contribute to Porch's earnings by expanding its network and customer base.

Porch Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Porch Group exhibits strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability, reflected in negative net income and EBIT. The balance sheet shows negative equity and high debt levels, posing financial risks. Despite improvements, cash flow remains negative, highlighting ongoing operational challenges.

Income Statement

Porch Group has shown a consistent growth in revenue over the years, with a significant increase from 2020 to 2024. However, the company struggles with profitability, as both net income and EBIT remain negative. The TTM data shows a slight improvement in EBIT margin and EBITDA margin compared to previous annual data, indicating potential operational improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a challenging situation for Porch Group, with negative stockholders' equity indicating financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, but the high total debt level poses a risk. Despite these issues, the company maintains a reasonable level of cash and equivalents.

Cash Flow

Porch Group's cash flow shows improvement in free cash flow from previous years, yet remains negative in the TTM period, highlighting ongoing operational challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting inefficiencies in converting income into cash. Despite improvements, cash flow stability remains a concern.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
427.15M	437.85M	430.30M	275.95M	192.43M	73.22M
	Gross Profit
228.07M	212.22M	210.06M	168.37M	137.15M	55.65M
	EBIT
-30.59M	-64.57M	-138.43M	-115.66M	-85.84M	-42.80M
	EBITDA
55.30M	37.35M	-77.07M	-116.95M	-94.42M	-34.34M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-11.07M	-32.83M	-133.93M	-156.56M	-109.08M	-51.61M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
332.82M	191.74M	294.01M	251.58M	324.99M	196.05M
	Total Assets
899.39M	813.97M	899.39M	1.05B	1.03B	268.59M
	Total Debt
439.04M	403.94M	435.74M	444.30M	417.43M	47.98M
	Net Debt
141.81M	236.29M	177.32M	229.24M	101.69M	-148.06M
	Total Liabilities
935.08M	857.19M	935.08M	969.70M	820.00M	129.18M
	Stockholders Equity
-35.68M	-43.23M	-35.68M	79.35M	214.57M	139.41M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-61.83M	-32.20M	23.83M	-28.94M	-39.47M	-51.55M
	Operating Cash Flow
-51.33M	-31.68M	33.93M	-18.49M	-34.78M	-48.67M
	Investing Cash Flow
-77.13M	-45.06M	-56.25M	-79.68M	-263.43M	-10.67M
	Financing Cash Flow
-21.43M	-23.71M	90.95M	1.98M	415.55M	259.61M

Porch Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.86
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.01, above the 50-day MA of 7.75, and above the 200-day MA of 4.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PRCH.

Porch Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DSP	70 Outperform	$910.34M	483.39	4.15%	―	30.64%	―
PRCH	64 Neutral	$1.12B	―	75.95%	―	-6.81%	85.11%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$11.80B	10.37	-7.29%	2.91%	7.39%	-7.96%
ONTF	56 Neutral	$234.89M	―	-24.47%	―	-8.39%	7.79%
BMBL	56 Neutral	$548.48M	―	-46.57%	―	-2.39%	-2961.26%
FRGE	53 Neutral	$168.77M	―	-27.44%	―	16.03%	30.99%
SMRT	51 Neutral	$174.46M	―	-22.66%	―	-25.43%	-135.09%

Porch Group Corporate Events

Porch Group Completes Major Refinancing Transaction

On May 27, 2025, Porch Group completed its refinancing transactions, repurchasing $144.3 million of its 2026 Notes and issuing $134.0 million of new 2030 Notes. This move aims to retire the majority of its existing debt while minimizing shareholder dilution, positioning the company for future growth and financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRCH) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Porch Group stock, see the PRCH Stock Forecast page.

Porch Group Announces Refinancing with New 2030 Notes

On May 19, 2025, Porch Group, Inc. announced a refinancing transaction involving the repurchase of $144.3 million of its 2026 convertible notes and the issuance of $134.0 million in new 2030 notes. This move aims to reduce the company’s debt maturity from $174 million to $29 million by 2026, thereby deleveraging its balance sheet and minimizing shareholder dilution. The 2030 notes, which are convertible and redeemable under specific conditions, are expected to close on May 27, 2025, and will not be registered under the Securities Act.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRCH) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Porch Group stock, see the PRCH Stock Forecast page.

Porch Group Exceeds Q1 2025 Expectations, Raises Guidance

On May 6, 2025, Porch Group reported its first quarter 2025 results, exceeding expectations and raising its guidance for the year. The company achieved a revenue of $84.5 million and a net income of $8.4 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA of $16.9 million, marking a significant increase compared to the previous year. The formation of the Porch Reciprocal Exchange and the sale of its legacy insurance carrier, Homeowners of America, to the Reciprocal have simplified Porch’s business model, making it more predictable and higher margin. The Reciprocal remains healthy, having successfully placed a new reinsurance program at a lower cost, allowing Porch to benefit from the growth of the homeowners insurance industry while reducing risk.

Porch Group Approves 2025 Incentive Program for Executives

On April 4, 2025, Porch Group‘s Board of Directors approved a 2025 long-term incentive program for its executive officers, allocating 75% of the grant value in performance-based restricted stock units (PRSUs) and 25% in restricted stock units (RSUs). The program aims to align executive compensation with company performance, focusing on metrics such as relative total shareholder return, adjusted EBITDA, and revenue, with vesting conditions extending to 2028. This initiative is designed to motivate exceptional financial and stock performance, aligning with stockholder value creation.