Bumble (BMBL) AI Stock Analysis

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Bumble

(NASDAQ:BMBL)

Rating:54Neutral

Price Target:

$6.00

▲( 5.45% Upside)

Bumble's overall stock score is driven by its financial performance challenges, including profitability issues and inconsistent cash flow growth. Positive momentum in technical indicators is partly offset by overbought conditions. Valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings. Strategic initiatives from the earnings call show potential, but short-term headwinds and user engagement challenges weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Bumble cut $15M of operating expenses and reduced marketing spend by $20M, resulting in a 2Q adjusted EBITDA outlook well above expectations.

Profitability

Adjusted EBITDA of $64.4mm beat expectations, showing strong profitability performance.

Revenue Performance

Bumble app revenue was approximately 1% above estimates, reflecting strong performance despite challenges.

Negative Factors

Market Competition

Key competitor Hinge is taking share, and a return to growth is still multiple quarters away.

Revenue Outlook

2Q25 total revenue guidance is below consensus expectations.

User Base

Bumble App continued to struggle with payer count & revenue down.

Bumble (BMBL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$588.76M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)3.56M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.87

Revenue Growth-2.39%

EPS Growth-2961.26%

CountryUS

Employees1,200

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength76

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.13

Shares Outstanding103,291,430

10 Day Avg. Volume4,740,478

30 Day Avg. Volume3,559,769

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.20

Price to Book (P/B)0.74

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio5.14

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.72

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.23

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.41

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.07

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$5.45

Price Target Upside-4.22% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering15

Bumble Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBumble Inc. provides online dating and social networking platforms in North America, Europe, internationally. It owns and operates websites and applications that offers subscription and in-app purchases dating products. The company operates two apps, Bumble and Badoo with approximately 40 million users on monthly basis, as well as Fruitz, an online dating app. Bumble Inc. was founded in 2014 in and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyBumble Inc. generates revenue primarily through its freemium business model, where users can access basic services for free and have the option to purchase premium features. These premium features are offered through subscriptions, such as Bumble Boost and Bumble Premium, which provide enhanced functionalities like seeing who has liked them, rematching with expired connections, and accessing advanced filters. Additionally, the company earns money from in-app purchases, where users can buy virtual goods like SuperSwipes to stand out to potential matches. Advertising revenue, though a smaller portion, also contributes to Bumble's earnings, with the company leveraging its large user base to offer targeted advertising opportunities. Strategic partnerships and brand collaborations further enhance Bumble's revenue streams by integrating promotional content and special offers within the app.

Bumble Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Average Revenue Per User

Average Revenue Per User
Measures the average income generated from each user, reflecting the company’s ability to monetize its user base effectively.

Chart InsightsBumble's Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) has been declining since 2021, with a notable drop in 2024. This trend aligns with the company's strategic shift away from performance marketing to focus on user quality and experience. The latest earnings call highlights efforts to enhance user engagement through AI and cost reductions, but acknowledges short-term revenue challenges. The pivot towards organic growth and improved matching algorithms may stabilize ARPU in the long term, but current headwinds and reduced marketing spend could continue to pressure revenue in the near term.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Bumble Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bumble exhibits modest revenue growth and a strong cash flow position, with low leverage and a stable equity base. However, the company faces significant profitability challenges, as reflected by negative net income and operating margins. While the balance sheet is healthy, improving profitability should be a priority to ensure sustainable financial health.

Income Statement

Positive

Bumble has shown a modest revenue growth rate of 1.88% from 2023 to 2024, indicating some growth momentum. However, the company's profitability has deteriorated, with a net profit margin of -51.96% in 2024 compared to a slightly negative margin of -0.40% in 2023. The gross profit margin remains relatively strong at 70.23%, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate profitability challenges. Overall, the income statement reflects growth but also highlights significant profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Bumble's balance sheet shows a healthy equity ratio of 32.65% in 2024, indicating a solid equity base. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly to 0.01, reflecting low leverage. Return on equity is negative due to substantial net losses. Overall, the balance sheet is stable with low leverage but suffers from poor profitability.

Cash Flow

Positive

The company's free cash flow in 2024 is positive at $114.12 million, though it has decreased from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating good cash generation relative to losses. Free cash flow to net income ratio remains robust, suggesting that despite net losses, the company generates substantial cash. The cash flow statement reflects strong cash generation capabilities, though there's a decline in free cash flow growth.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.07B	1.05B	903.50M	765.66M	488.94M
	Gross Profit
752.81M	743.99M	654.01M	555.74M	349.17M
	EBIT
-700.47M	53.37M	-102.84M	-134.68M	93.25M
	EBITDA
-634.68M	121.40M	7.60M	-19.03M	-20.28M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-557.01M	-4.21M	-114.12M	309.81M	98.12M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
204.32M	355.64M	402.56M	369.18M	128.03M
	Total Assets
2.52B	3.63B	3.69B	3.78B	3.64B
	Total Debt
629.52M	635.37M	624.97M	622.94M	826.21M
	Net Debt
425.20M	279.73M	222.41M	253.76M	698.18M
	Total Liabilities
1.18B	1.29B	1.24B	1.30B	1.55B
	Stockholders Equity
824.53M	1.64B	1.63B	1.62B	2.08B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
96.69M	167.15M	116.61M	91.18M	2.40B
	Operating Cash Flow
123.44M	182.09M	132.94M	104.84M	2.41B
	Investing Cash Flow
-26.75M	-24.75M	-86.05M	-12.48M	-2.85B
	Financing Cash Flow
-250.83M	-198.89M	-14.95M	151.49M	505.82M

Bumble Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price5.69

Price Trends

50DMA

4.66

Positive

100DMA

5.91

Negative

200DMA

6.56

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.35

Negative

RSI

64.94

Neutral

STOCH

64.85

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BMBL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.09, above the 50-day MA of 4.66, and below the 200-day MA of 6.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BMBL.

Bumble Risk Analysis

Bumble disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bumble reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Bumble Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PUBM	70 Outperform	$559.11M	134.55	1.94%	―	3.62%	-53.21%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$11.56B	10.24	-7.04%	2.94%	7.46%	-10.54%
EB	58 Neutral	$207.12M	―	-9.90%	―	-6.52%	-2.19%
CGNT	57 Neutral	$753.38M	―	-6.09%	―	―	―
BMBL	54 Neutral	$588.76M	―	-46.57%	―	-2.39%	-2961.26%
SKIL	52 Neutral	$188.22M	―	-81.43%	―	-4.02%	65.55%
DM	38 Underperform	$163.71M	―	-152.96%	―	-14.97%	22.83%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BMBL

Bumble

5.69

-5.75

-50.26%

Eventbrite

2.15

-2.87

-57.17%

Desktop Metal

4.96

-0.66

-11.74%

SKIL

Skillsoft

20.44

11.22

121.69%

PUBM

PubMatic

11.41

-11.31

-49.78%

CGNT

Cognyte Software

10.70

3.25

43.62%

Bumble Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 29.61%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Bumble is taking significant steps to improve user experience and quality through AI and organizational changes, while facing short-term revenue and user engagement challenges as they pivot away from performance marketing.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

AI and Machine Learning Enhancements

Bumble is rapidly modernizing its personalized matching algorithm with AI and enhanced machine learning, which has shown early positive results with increases in relevancy and match rates.

Leadership and Organizational Improvements

Bumble has brought in seasoned leaders across product, technology, communications, and legal, and is progressing in the search for a permanent CFO.

Financial Discipline and Cost Reductions

Bumble has identified $15 million in new near-term savings and reduced its marketing spend by $20 million in Q2, focusing on organic marketing strategies.

Launch of AI-Powered Features

Bumble is launching new features like a modernized algorithm and a coaching hub to improve user experience and engagement.

Negative Updates

Decline in Revenue and Paying Users

Total revenue for Bumble Inc. was $247 million for Q1, with a decrease in paying users expected due to the shift in strategic focus.

Short-Term Revenue Headwinds

Bumble expects a $12 million revenue headwind from discontinuing operations of Fruits and Official, impacting the remainder of the year.

Challenges in Maintaining User Quality

Bumble admitted that there has been a decline in match quality due to the reliance on performance channels during the pandemic, which they are now addressing.

Company Guidance

In the Bumble First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance focusing on enhancing the quality of its user base and improving financial discipline. Bumble's Q1 revenue was reported at $247 million, with Bumble app revenue at $202 million, and a total of 4 million paying users. The company is prioritizing the removal of bots and scammers and enhancing its member experience through a modernized AI-driven matching algorithm. Bumble expects Q2 revenue between $235 million and $243 million and adjusted EBITDA between $79 million and $84 million, with a strategic reduction in marketing spending by approximately $20 million in Q2. The call also emphasized a shift toward organic growth strategies, with a long-term focus on sustainable member-first growth and a commitment to maintaining financial strength.

Bumble Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Bumble Appoints Ronald Fior as Interim CFO

Neutral

Feb 28, 2025

On February 28, 2025, Bumble Inc. announced the appointment of Ronald J. Fior as the Interim Chief Financial Officer, effective March 15, 2025, following the resignation of Anuradha B. Subramanian. Mr. Fior, a partner at FLG Partners, LLC, brings over 30 years of CFO experience and will continue as a consultant while Bumble searches for a permanent CFO. This strategic appointment is expected to maintain financial stability and continuity for Bumble during the transition period.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.