Bumble (BMBL)
NASDAQ:BMBL
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Bumble
(NASDAQ:BMBL)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▼(-17.84% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/07/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening revenue and profitability trends and a technically weak chart (price below key moving averages). Offsetting factors include strong operating/free-cash-flow generation, reduced leverage and improved near-term profitability discipline, plus a low P/E that provides some valuation support, though guidance underscores timing risk for a revenue recovery.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent and improving cash generation gives Bumble durable financial flexibility: strong OCF and rising FCF (Q1 showed ~96% conversion) fund product investment, debt paydown, and reinvestment into AI and platform work without immediate need for equity raises, cushioning cyclical revenue gaps.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline and user contraction
Material top-line shrinkage and a substantially smaller paying base weaken network effects and long-term monetization potential. Recovering scale requires successful product changes and marketing reinvestment; until then smaller cohort dynamics raise structural revenue volatility and slower growth prospects.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistent and improving cash generation gives Bumble durable financial flexibility: strong OCF and rising FCF (Q1 showed ~96% conversion) fund product investment, debt paydown, and reinvestment into AI and platform work without immediate need for equity raises, cushioning cyclical revenue gaps.
Read all positive factors
Bumble (BMBL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$445.27M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)1.9
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth-11.42%
EPS Growth-20.02%
CountryUS
Employees1,200
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.67
Shares Outstanding129,815,720
10 Day Avg. Volume2,659,727
30 Day Avg. Volume5,196,672
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.67
Price to Sales (P/S)0.39
P/FCF Ratio1.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.49Price Target Upside5.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$857.12M
Bumble Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bumble Inc. provides online dating and social networking platforms in North America, Europe, internationally. It owns and operates websites and applications that offers subscription and in-app purchases dating products. The company operates two ap...
How the Company Makes Money
Bumble primarily makes money through subscription and in-app purchase revenue generated across its apps. The company uses a freemium model: users can access core functionality for free, while paying for premium tiers and add-ons that provide enhan...
Bumble Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Divides revenue into different business segments, showing which areas are driving growth and where the company might face challenges or opportunities.
Divides revenue into different business segments, showing which areas are driving growth and where the company might face challenges or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBumble Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear progress on profitability, cash generation, cost discipline, and early product/AI tests against meaningful near-term revenue declines, a deliberate quality reset that reduced scale, persistent legacy tech debt, and timing risk for monetization from the new platform. Management presented a credible multi-quarter transformation roadmap (cloud-native tech stack, Bee AI, reimagined interaction model) with positive early signals, but acknowledged that financial benefits will take time and that margin expansion in Q1 may compress as investments increase. Overall, the results show healthy cash flow and operational discipline but significant short-term revenue and timing challenges as the company executes its modernization plan.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA of $83M in Q1 (39% margin) vs $64M (26% margin) a year ago — an increase of $19M (+29.7%) and a margin improvement of ~13 percentage points, driven by operating discipline and lower marketing spend.
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year Revenue Decline
Total revenue of $212M in Q1 vs $247M a year ago — a decline of $35M (-14.2%). Bumble app revenue was $173M vs $202M a year ago — down $29M (-14.4%).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA of $83M in Q1 (39% margin) vs $64M (26% margin) a year ago — an increase of $19M (+29.7%) and a margin improvement of ~13 percentage points, driven by operating discipline and lower marketing spend.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 total revenue of $205–$213M, Bumble app revenue of $168–$174M and adjusted EBITDA of $65–$70M (≈32% margin at the midpoint). That outlook follows Q1 results of $212M total revenue (vs. $247M a year ago) and $173M for the Bumble app (vs. $202M), with FX contributing ~$9M to total and ~$6M to app revenue, a ~1‑ppt headwind from the loss of Fruitz/Official, and strong profitability in the quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $83M (39% margin) versus $64M (26% prior year). Management noted disciplined cost execution—S&M ~$20M (12% of revenue) vs. ~$60M (24% prior), product R&D ~$25M (12%), G&A ~$24M (11%)—generated $77M operating cash flow and $74M free cash flow, ending the quarter with $246M cash (pro forma $150M after a $114M debt paydown in April), and said revenue headwinds should moderate through 2026 as they invest in the new tech platform (rollout beginning in weeks) and ramp marketing and product investment into 2H and 2027.Bumble Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 965.66M | 1.07B | 1.05B | 903.50M | 760.91M |
| Gross Profit | 659.63M | 752.81M | 744.00M | 654.01M | 555.34M |
| EBITDA | 280.10M | -634.68M | 121.40M | 3.06M | -27.63M |
| Net Income | -702.37M | -557.01M | -4.21M | -79.75M | 309.81M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.41B | 2.52B | 3.63B | 3.69B | 3.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 175.76M | 204.32M | 355.64M | 402.56M | 369.18M |
| Total Debt | 588.47M | 629.52M | 635.37M | 641.86M | 654.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 743.97M | 1.18B | 1.29B | 1.24B | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 560.21M | 824.53M | 1.64B | 1.63B | 1.61B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 238.68M | 96.69M | 167.15M | 116.61M | 91.18M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 250.36M | 123.44M | 182.09M | 132.94M | 104.84M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.68M | -26.75M | -24.75M | -86.05M | -12.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -268.12M | -250.83M | -198.89M | -14.95M | 151.49M |
Bumble Technical Analysis
Positive
4.26
Price Trends
3.30
Positive
3.43
Positive
4.80
Negative
Market Momentum
0.19
Negative
71.76
Negative
92.98
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BMBL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.54, above the 50-day MA of 3.30, and below the 200-day MA of 4.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.76 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BMBL.
Bumble Risk Analysis
Bumble disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bumble reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bumble Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $1.94B | 23.63 | 7.96% | ― | 2.90% | 361.26% | |
64 Neutral | $1.31B | 44.10 | 3.93% | ― | 7.64% | -80.72% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $382.73M | -15.56 | -22.88% | ― | 12.72% | 32.06% | |
55 Neutral | $445.27M | 1.90 | -110.37% | ― | -11.42% | -20.02% | |
54 Neutral | $235.58M | -6.32 | -32.94% | ― | 8.29% | 22.32% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
BMBL
Bumble
3.43
-0.96
-21.87%
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Bumble Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Bumble Revenue Falls But Profit Surges in Q1 2026
Neutral
May 5, 2026
Bumble Inc. reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, 2026, showing that total revenue fell 14.1% year on year to $212.4 million as total paying users dropped 21.1% to 3.2 million, while ARPPU rose 8.9%, reflecting a smaller but higher-spendin...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Bumble Refinances Debt with New 2030 Credit Facilities
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
On April 24, 2026, Bumble subsidiaries entered into a new $475 million senior secured term loan facility and a $50 million super-priority revolving credit facility, both carrying leverage and liquidity covenants and maturing in 2030. The term loan...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.