Bumble (BMBL)
NASDAQ:BMBL
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Bumble
(NASDAQ:BMBL)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▲(5.42% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance on the income statement (revenue contraction and sharply worse profitability), partially offset by strong cash generation and improving balance-sheet risk profile. Technically, the stock is trading above key moving averages but with only modest momentum confirmation. The earnings call adds moderate support via margin-improvement guidance and strong cash flow, while valuation inputs are not supportive due to a non-meaningful P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Sustained strong operating and free cash flow provides durable financing for product investment, debt servicing, and shareholder actions without reliance on equity markets. Reliable cash conversion buffers the business through revenue cycles and supports execution of Tech 2.0 and AI initiatives.
Negative Factors
Material Revenue Contraction
Sustained top-line decline weakens the revenue base that funds margins and reinvestment. Even if user quality and retention improve, prolonged funnel pressure and lower registrant volumes reduce the scalability of monetization and prolong the timeline to restore prior growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Sustained strong operating and free cash flow provides durable financing for product investment, debt servicing, and shareholder actions without reliance on equity markets. Reliable cash conversion buffers the business through revenue cycles and supports execution of Tech 2.0 and AI initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Bumble (BMBL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$432.29M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth-7.43%
EPS Growth61.36%
CountryUS
Employees1,200
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.06
Shares Outstanding129,815,720
10 Day Avg. Volume10,004,361
30 Day Avg. Volume5,382,491
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.67
Price to Sales (P/S)0.39
P/FCF Ratio1.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.40Price Target Upside32.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$857.45M
Bumble Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bumble Inc. provides online dating and social networking platforms in North America, Europe, internationally. It owns and operates websites and applications that offers subscription and in-app purchases dating products. The company operates two ap...
How the Company Makes Money
Bumble primarily makes money through direct payments from users on its apps via a freemium model. The company’s key revenue streams are (1) subscriptions, where users pay recurring fees for premium tiers (such as Bumble Boost/Premium and Badoo Pre...
Bumble Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Divides revenue into different business segments, showing which areas are driving growth and where the company might face challenges or opportunities.
Divides revenue into different business segments, showing which areas are driving growth and where the company might face challenges or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBumble Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced acknowledgment of near-term top-line pressure with evidence of durable fundamentals and a clear turnaround plan. Material revenue declines and ongoing migration/duplication costs present meaningful near-term challenges, but margin expansion, strong cash generation, improved payer mix, early adoption of alternative billing, completion of the quality reset, and an ambitious Tech 2.0/AI roadmap provide credible pathways to recovery. Management projects further margin improvement and gradual moderation of revenue headwinds as product innovations roll out.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $72M with a margin of 32% (vs. $73M and 28% prior-year), and full-year adjusted EBITDA was $314M with a 32% margin (vs. $304M and 28% prior-year); margin improved ~4 percentage points year over year, demonstrating stronger profitability and operating leverage.
Negative Updates
Significant Revenue Declines Year over Year
Total revenue for Q4 was $224M vs. $262M year-ago (~-14.5% YoY); full-year revenue was $966M vs. $1.07B in 2024 (~-9.9% YoY), reflecting material top-line pressure from the member-base reset and reduced funnel volume.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $72M with a margin of 32% (vs. $73M and 28% prior-year), and full-year adjusted EBITDA was $314M with a 32% margin (vs. $304M and 28% prior-year); margin improved ~4 percentage points year over year, demonstrating stronger profitability and operating leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: For 2026 Bumble expects total revenue of $209–213 million (Bumble app revenue $171–174 million) and adjusted EBITDA of $76–80 million (approximately a 37% margin), noting the toughest part of the quality reset is behind them and that revenue headwinds should moderate as new product adoption, retention, payer penetration and ARPPU improvements materialize. For context, Q4 2025 revenue was $224M (Bumble app $181M) with adjusted EBITDA $72M (32% margin), and full‑year 2025 revenue was $966M with adjusted EBITDA $314M (32%); FY2025 operating cash flow was $250M and free cash flow $239M, ending cash was $176M, the TRA buyout was $186M, debt outstanding due Jan‑2027 was $588M, and $25M of Term Loan B was repaid in August 2025. Cost and efficiency metrics include Q4 selling & marketing of $161M (17% of revenue) vs. $259M (24%) year‑ago, development expense $96M (10%) vs. $84M (8%), and G&A $115M (12%) vs. $108M (10%); management also noted direct payments (Apple Pay) added ~1 percentage point of gross margin in Q4, >50% of U.S. iOS payments are now via Apple Pay quarter‑to‑date, some duplicate infrastructure costs will persist during the 2026 replatforming, and they expect modest incremental product development spend midyear.Bumble Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 965.66M | 1.07B | 1.05B | 903.50M | 760.91M |
| Gross Profit | 659.63M | 752.81M | 744.00M | 654.01M | 555.34M |
| EBITDA | 280.10M | -634.68M | 121.40M | 3.06M | -27.63M |
| Net Income | -702.37M | -557.01M | -4.21M | -79.75M | 309.81M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.41B | 2.52B | 3.63B | 3.69B | 3.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 175.76M | 204.32M | 355.64M | 402.56M | 369.18M |
| Total Debt | 588.47M | 629.52M | 635.37M | 641.86M | 654.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 743.97M | 1.18B | 1.29B | 1.24B | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 560.21M | 824.53M | 1.64B | 1.63B | 1.61B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 238.68M | 96.69M | 167.15M | 116.61M | 91.18M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 250.36M | 123.44M | 182.09M | 132.94M | 104.84M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.68M | -26.75M | -24.75M | -86.05M | -12.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -268.12M | -250.83M | -198.89M | -14.95M | 151.49M |
Bumble Technical Analysis
Negative
3.32
Price Trends
3.29
Positive
3.53
Negative
4.96
Negative
Market Momentum
0.09
Positive
48.92
Neutral
3.76
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BMBL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.36, above the 50-day MA of 3.29, and below the 200-day MA of 4.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BMBL.
Bumble Risk Analysis
Bumble disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bumble reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bumble Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.48B | 69.87 | 3.93% | ― | 6.48% | 168.94% | |
66 Neutral | $1.81B | 26.41 | 7.96% | ― | 1.47% | 1077.70% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $342.34M | ― | -22.88% | ― | 13.09% | 32.34% | |
57 Neutral | $432.29M | -0.19 | -106.91% | ― | -7.43% | 61.36% | |
46 Neutral | $255.85M | -10.79 | -32.94% | ― | 6.33% | -66.34% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
BMBL
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.