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Forge Global Holdings (FRGE)
NYSE:FRGE
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Forge Global Holdings (FRGE) AI Stock Analysis

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FRGE

Forge Global Holdings

(NYSE:FRGE)

Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$24.50
▲(9.47% Upside)
Forge Global Holdings' overall stock score is driven by strong technical momentum and positive sentiment from recent earnings and strategic acquisitions. However, ongoing financial challenges, including negative cash flow and valuation concerns, temper the score.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Forge reported net revenues of $28 million in the quarter, which beat consensus of $22 million, driven by higher-than-expected marketplace revenues.
Strategic Growth
Recent high-profile data partnerships, such as those with Intercontinental Exchange and Yahoo Finance, highlight FRGE's growing demand and position as a leading provider in private market data.
Negative Factors
Market Conditions
Economic uncertainty is expected to slow tech IPO activity and keep private company valuations under pressure.
Revenue Sensitivity
Forge's business is highly sensitive to quarterly transaction volumes on its platform.

Forge Global Holdings (FRGE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Forge Global Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionForge Global Holdings, Inc. provides marketplace infrastructure, data services, and technology solutions for private market participants. It enables private company shareholders to trade private company shares with accredited investors. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in San Francisco, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyForge Global Holdings makes money primarily through transaction fees charged on the trades executed on its platform. These fees are levied on both the buy-side and sell-side participants in private equity transactions. Additionally, the company generates revenue through ancillary services such as data analytics and advisory services that provide insights into the private markets. Forge may also engage in strategic partnerships with financial institutions and other entities that facilitate access to a broader range of private market opportunities, thereby enhancing its revenue streams.

Forge Global Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.10%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong revenue growth, a narrowing adjusted EBITDA loss, and strategic acquisitions and partnerships. However, challenges such as a slight increase in net loss and expected seasonal revenue decline were noted. The positive market trends and strategic positioning suggest optimism for future growth.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
Q2 2025 marked the second consecutive quarter of record revenue since going public, with revenue reaching $27.6 million, an increase of 10% from the prior quarter.
Narrowest Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA Loss
The quarter saw the narrowest adjusted EBITDA loss as a public company at $5.4 million, improving from an $8.9 million loss in the previous quarter.
Strong Trading Volume
Trading volume increased 9% from $692 million to $756 million quarter-over-quarter, with significant contributions from institutional trading.
Significant Improvement in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA loss improved by 39% quarter-over-quarter, driven by increased revenues and decreased operating costs.
Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships
The acquisition of Accuidity expanded asset management and wealth capabilities. Partnerships with ICE and Fortune were established for data services.
Positive Market Trends
The private market is showing renewed strength with the strongest first half IPO performance since 2021, and private AI sector performance outpacing public benchmarks.
Negative Updates
Slight Increase in Net Loss
The net loss on a GAAP basis increased slightly to $16.6 million from $16.2 million in the previous quarter, due to higher changes in fair value of warrants.
Lower Custodial Client Cash Balances
Custodial client cash balances were modestly lower at $440 million compared to $460 million at the end of Q1.
Seasonal Revenue Decline Expected
Revenues in Q3 are generally lower than Q2 and Q4 due to seasonal factors, which may impact overall revenue performance.
Company Guidance
During the Forge Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, several key metrics were highlighted. Forge reported a revenue of $27.6 million for Q2 2025, marking a 10% increase from the prior quarter, and a trading volume of $756 million, a 9% rise from $692 million in the previous quarter. The adjusted EBITDA loss was narrowed to $5.4 million, a significant improvement from an $8.9 million loss in Q1 2025. The trading volume for the first half of 2025 was $1.4 billion, surpassing the entire 2024 volume of $1.3 billion. Additionally, custodial administration fees were $9.1 million, with custodial client cash balances slightly declining to $440 million from $460 million in Q1. Forge maintained a net loss of $16.6 million on a GAAP basis, slightly higher than Q1's $16.2 million. The company also repurchased 315,000 shares at an average price of $13.15 per share. Looking forward, Forge is on track to achieve adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2026, supported by the operational scalability of its new marketplace, the integration of the Accuidity acquisition, and cost efficiencies from offshoring technology development.

Forge Global Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Forge Global Holdings shows revenue growth and a strong equity position but faces significant challenges in achieving profitability and generating positive cash flow. Persistent losses and negative cash flows are critical areas needing improvement.
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Forge Global Holdings has experienced a decline in revenue from its peak in 2021, with the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue showing modest growth over 2024. Despite this growth, the company continues to struggle with profitability, as indicated by negative gross and net profit margins. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting ongoing operational challenges. The revenue growth trajectory is positive but overshadowed by persistent losses.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a strong equity base with an improving debt position, as evidenced by low and declining levels of total debt. The equity ratio remains healthy, indicating strong shareholder backing. However, there is a significant decline in total assets, and while the debt-to-equity ratio is favorable, the company must leverage its equity to improve profitability and asset utilization.
Cash Flow
38
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows ongoing negative free cash flow, although the free cash flow deficit has slightly decreased from previous periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, reflecting inefficiencies in converting income into cash. The company must improve operational efficiencies to stabilize cash flows and reduce reliance on external financing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue90.84M79.33M69.82M68.90M128.06M47.76M
Gross Profit-21.74M-42.07M69.39M-112.94M125.02M43.87M
EBITDA-60.72M-72.95M-80.62M-119.90M-713.00K-2.02M
Net Income-66.88M-66.33M-90.22M-111.91M-18.50M-9.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets242.84M263.51M310.73M363.73M257.89M258.50M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments54.31M106.21M152.42M193.14M74.78M40.58M
Total Debt14.87M14.57M10.82M7.44M10.53M31.29M
Total Liabilities42.74M36.76M42.31M38.27M64.48M109.15M
Stockholders Equity196.38M223.58M263.51M319.39M193.42M149.35M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-34.90M-41.33M-41.98M-75.46M7.64M-3.69M
Operating Cash Flow-34.33M-40.53M-41.46M-68.81M10.90M-2.53M
Investing Cash Flow-26.77M5.47M-8.16M-6.65M-3.26M-23.37M
Financing Cash Flow-5.83M-3.89M57.00K192.86M26.58M39.38M

Forge Global Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price22.38
Price Trends
50DMA
17.83
Positive
100DMA
14.84
Positive
200DMA
14.30
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.47
Negative
RSI
63.26
Neutral
STOCH
65.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FRGE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.43, above the 50-day MA of 17.83, and above the 200-day MA of 14.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FRGE.

Forge Global Holdings Risk Analysis

Forge Global Holdings disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Forge Global Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Forge Global Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$17.22B11.2810.45%3.94%10.30%1.07%
63
Neutral
$185.25M13.8722.69%2.37%
62
Neutral
$304.40M-28.14%14.78%21.87%
58
Neutral
$235.09M-25.48%-28.45%-224.48%
52
Neutral
$89.26M-223.65%221.24%13.36%
45
Neutral
$121.68M-34.26%
44
Neutral
$759.10M0.49104.83%-31.64%-55.76%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FRGE
Forge Global Holdings
22.38
2.28
11.34%
MAPS
WM Technology
1.20
0.27
29.03%
SMRT
SmartRent
1.25
-0.28
-18.30%
PSQH
PSQ Holdings
1.96
-0.73
-27.14%
NXTT
Next Technology Holding
1.60
0.26
19.40%
SVCO
Silvaco Group, Inc.
4.15
-11.33
-73.19%

Forge Global Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Forge Global Grants Performance-Based Equity Awards
Neutral
Jul 22, 2025

On July 18, 2025, Forge Global Holdings‘ Board of Directors and Compensation Committee granted annual equity awards to key executives, including CEO Kelly Rodriques and CFO James Nevin, under their 2022 Stock Option and Incentive Plan and 2025 Inducement Plan. The performance-based vesting for these awards has increased significantly, reflecting the company’s commitment to a pay-for-performance philosophy. The Board is also responding to recent stockholder meeting results by planning a listening tour to address investor concerns. For 2025, 100% of Rodriques’ equity awards are performance-based, with a reduced grant date fair value due to lower stock prices. Nevin’s awards have a 65% performance-based vesting, a substantial increase from the previous CFO’s 25% weighting, aligning with the company’s strategic focus on performance metrics.

The most recent analyst rating on (FRGE) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Forge Global Holdings stock, see the FRGE Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Forge Global Completes Acquisition of Accuidity Capital
Positive
Jul 2, 2025

On July 1, 2025, Forge Global Holdings completed the acquisition of Accuidity Capital Management, a specialized asset management firm focused on private market investing. This acquisition is part of Forge’s strategic vision to broaden investor access to private markets and enhance its wealth and asset management strategy. The transaction, valued at $10 million in cash and 1.15 million shares of Forge common stock, aims to integrate Accuidity’s investment strategies with Forge’s technology and distribution capabilities, offering a diversified set of investment solutions. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to Forge’s earnings per share and supports its commitment to democratizing access to private markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (FRGE) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Forge Global Holdings stock, see the FRGE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Forge Global Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 24, 2025

Forge Global Holdings, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 20, 2025, where 69.27% of the voting power was represented. During the meeting, stockholders elected Class III directors and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. However, proposals concerning executive compensation and amendments to the company’s stock option plan did not pass.

The most recent analyst rating on (FRGE) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Forge Global Holdings stock, see the FRGE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 05, 2025