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Forge Global Holdings (FRGE)
NYSE:FRGE
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Forge Global Holdings
(NYSE:FRGE)
Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-0.14%Downside)
Positive Factors
Market Position
FRGE shares are considered undervalued at current levels, trading at a significant discount compared to larger, high-growth FinTech peers.
Revenue Growth
Forge reported total net revenue of $25.1mn, marking a 37% increase quarter-over-quarter and 31% year-over-year, achieving its best quarterly revenue performance since 2021 due to strong transaction volumes.
Strategic Initiatives
Forge is making steady progress against its strategic initiatives and continues to broaden the business with more partnerships and a prospective acquisition.
Negative Factors
Earnings Performance
FRGE has not reported a positive adjusted EBITDA quarter since 2021, and its stock has significantly decreased since going public.
Economic Uncertainty
Economic uncertainty is expected to slow tech IPO activity and keep private company valuations under pressure.
Market Conditions
The near-term volume outlook seems choppy given the ongoing volatility in broader markets.
Forge Global Holdings (FRGE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$170.75M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)130.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.62
Revenue Growth16.03%
EPS Growth30.99%
CountryUS
Employees300
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength84
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.29
Shares Outstanding12,328,245
10 Day Avg. Volume67,000
30 Day Avg. Volume130,490
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.80
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-4.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-1.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.00Price Target Upside92.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
Forge Global Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionForge Global Holdings, Inc. provides marketplace infrastructure, data services, and technology solutions for private market participants. It enables private company shareholders to trade private company shares with accredited investors. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in San Francisco, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyForge Global Holdings generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged on the trades conducted on its platform. The company earns money by facilitating the buying and selling of private company shares, where both buyers and sellers are charged a fee based on the transaction size. Additionally, Forge offers data and analytics services, providing market insights and valuations, which also contribute to its revenue streams. The company's partnerships with financial institutions and private companies are significant in maintaining a robust pipeline of shares for its marketplace, further enhancing its revenue potential.
Forge Global Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 16.06%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented strong revenue growth and strategic partnerships as key highlights, suggesting positive momentum for Forge. However, challenges include declining custodial fees, increased operating expenses, and an unpredictable economic environment. The sentiment is mixed due to these positive and negative factors.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue
Forge achieved its best revenue quarter as a public company, with total revenue reaching $25.3 million, up 36% from the last quarter.
Significant Increase in Marketplace Revenues
Marketplace revenues were $16 million, up 85% from the last quarter, driven by a 132% increase in trading volume from $299 million to $692 million quarter-over-quarter.
Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions
Forge announced partnerships with Yahoo Finance and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to distribute private market pricing data, and plans to acquire Accuidity Capital Management to expand into asset management.
Strong Pipeline and Liquidity
Continuous strong deal pipeline reported for the second quarter, with a liquidity position of $93.1 million at the end of March.
Negative Updates
Decline in Custodial Administration Fees
Custodial administration fees totaled $9.3 million, declining 7% from the last quarter due to the full impact of the 2024 rate cuts.
Increased Operating Expenses
Operating expenses increased to $41.6 million from $37 million, primarily due to higher variable expenses linked to revenue growth and CFO transition costs.
Net Loss and Cash Usage
First quarter net loss was $16.2 million, flat compared to the previous quarter, with net cash used in operating activities at $12.8 million, an increase from $7.9 million last quarter.
Uncertain Economic Landscape
Volatility in public markets and heightened concerns about a potential recession contribute to an unpredictable economic landscape, making business forecasting difficult.
Company Guidance
During the Forge First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, several key metrics and insights were highlighted. Forge reported its best revenue quarter as a public company, with total revenue reaching $25.3 million, marking a 36% increase from the previous quarter. Marketplace revenue was a significant contributor, totaling $16 million, driven by a trading volume of $692 million, which represented a 132% increase from the previous quarter. The company also noted a decline in net take rates from 2.8% to 2.3%, primarily due to large SPV block trades. Operating expenses increased to $41.6 million, with a net loss of $16.2 million, remaining flat compared to the previous quarter. The adjusted EBITDA loss was reported at $8.9 million. Forge is actively expanding its wealth management capabilities as its RIA grows beyond $1 billion in AUM, and the company announced its intent to acquire Accuidity Capital Management. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to EPS and transformational to Forge's revenue streams. The company also completed a 15-for-1 reverse stock split and commenced a share repurchase program, buying back approximately 315,000 shares at an average price of $13.15 per share.Forge Global Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Forge Global Holdings is navigating a challenging financial landscape. The company's slight revenue growth is offset by high costs leading to negative margins. While the balance sheet shows low debt levels, persistent net losses affect return on equity. Cash flows are inadequate to cover operational needs, indicating a need for strategic adjustments to improve profitability and cash generation.Income Statement
Forge Global Holdings has shown a decline in total revenue over the years, with the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue at $79.3 million compared to $69.8 million the previous year. The gross profit margin is negative, indicating cost of goods sold exceeds the revenue. Net profit margin remains negative due to consistent net losses, and both EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative. Despite the slight revenue growth, the company struggles with profitability, impacting the overall income statement score.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a healthy equity ratio with stockholders' equity comprising a significant portion of total assets. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, reflecting limited leverage. However, return on equity is negative due to net losses, which undermines financial stability. Despite strong equity, the continuous losses present challenges.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains negative, impacting the company's ability to generate cash internally. Free cash flow shows slight improvement but is still negative. The company's cash flow metrics indicate challenges in sustaining operations without external financing, though there is a moderate improvement in free cash flow growth.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 79.33M | 69.82M | 68.90M | 128.06M | 47.76M | Gross Profit |
| -42.07M | 69.39M | -112.94M | 125.02M | 43.87M | EBIT |
| -82.26M | -91.45M | -135.04M | -8.91M | -7.62M | EBITDA |
| -72.95M | -80.62M | -119.90M | -713.00K | -2.02M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -66.33M | -90.22M | -111.91M | -18.50M | -9.71M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 106.21M | 152.42M | 193.14M | 74.78M | 40.58M | Total Assets |
| 263.51M | 310.73M | 363.73M | 257.89M | 258.50M | Total Debt |
| 14.57M | 10.82M | 7.44M | 10.53M | 31.29M | Net Debt |
| -90.57M | -133.91M | -185.70M | -64.25M | -9.29M | Total Liabilities |
| 36.76M | 42.31M | 38.27M | 64.48M | 109.15M | Stockholders Equity |
| 223.58M | 263.51M | 319.39M | 193.42M | 149.35M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -41.33M | -41.98M | -75.46M | 7.64M | -3.69M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -40.53M | -41.46M | -68.81M | 10.90M | -2.53M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 5.47M | -8.16M | -6.65M | -3.26M | -23.37M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -3.89M | 57.00K | 192.86M | 26.58M | 39.38M |
Forge Global Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.02
Price Trends
12.15
Positive
11.88
Positive
14.76
Negative
Market Momentum
0.41
Positive
52.17
Neutral
35.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FRGE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.32, above the 50-day MA of 12.15, and below the 200-day MA of 14.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FRGE.
Forge Global Holdings Risk Analysis
Forge Global Holdings disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Forge Global Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
If we are unable to maintain compliance with the continued listing requirements of the NYSE, our common stock could be delisted from the NYSE, and if this were to occur, then the price and liquidity of our common stock, and our ability to raise additional capital, may be adversely affected. Q4, 2024
2.
We may not realize the anticipated long-term stockholder value of our share repurchase program and any failure to repurchase our common stock after we have announced our intention to do so may negatively impact our stock price. Q4, 2024
Forge Global Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $11.70B | 10.39 | -7.10% | 2.92% | 7.45% | -8.42% | |
58 Neutral | $160.55M | 13.03 | 23.24% | ― | 0.20% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $105.65M | ― | -223.65% | ― | 221.24% | 13.36% | |
51 Neutral | $170.75M | ― | -27.44% | ― | 16.03% | 30.99% | |
51 Neutral | $158.63M | ― | -22.66% | ― | -25.43% | -135.09% | |
47 Neutral | $145.46M | ― | -127.52% | ― | ― | ― | |
44 Neutral | $837.63M | 0.75 | 80.54% | ― | -44.58% | 1200.82% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
FRGE
Forge Global Holdings
14.43
-9.42
-39.50%
MAPS
WM Technology
1.05
0.05
5.00%
SMRT
SmartRent
0.91
-1.53
-62.70%
PSQH
PSQ Holdings
2.45
-0.77
-23.91%
NXTT
Next Technology Holding
1.70
-1.65
-49.25%
SVCO
Silvaco Group, Inc.
4.93
-12.58
-71.84%
Forge Global Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Forge Global Announces Departure of Chief Revenue Officer
Neutral
Apr 24, 2025
On April 20, 2025, Forge Global Holdings, Inc. announced the mutual agreement for the separation of Jennifer Phillips as the Chief Revenue and Growth Officer, effective June 26, 2025. Post-separation, Phillips will continue as a consultant until December 2025 to aid in the transition. Her separation agreement includes equity acceleration and extended rights to exercise options for 18 months, alongside a potential cash payment for her consulting services.
Delistings and Listing ChangesStock Split
Forge Global Holdings Announces Reverse Stock Split
Neutral
Mar 31, 2025
On March 31, 2025, Forge Global Holdings announced that its Board of Directors approved a 1-for-15 reverse stock split of its Common Stock, effective April 14, 2025. This decision follows the approval by stockholders on March 27, 2025, and aims to meet the minimum bid price requirement for continued listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The reverse stock split will convert fifteen current shares into one new share, with adjustments made to equity incentive plans and outstanding warrants. Stockholders will receive cash for fractional shares, and no action is required from them to receive post-split shares.
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Forge Global Appoints Brian McDonald to Board
Positive
Mar 18, 2025
On March 12, 2025, Eric Leupold announced his resignation from the Board of Directors of Forge Global Holdings, effective March 17, 2025. His departure was not due to any disagreements with the company. Subsequently, on March 17, 2025, Brian McDonald was appointed as a Class III director, joining the Audit and Risk Committees. McDonald, a seasoned leader in financial services, previously held significant roles at Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab. His appointment is expected to bolster Forge’s strategic initiatives in financial technology and international expansion.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.