Teads Holding (TEAD) AI Stock Analysis

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Teads Holding

(NASDAQ:TEAD)

Rating:57Neutral

Price Target:

$3.00

▲(56.25% Upside)

TEAD's overall stock score is driven by moderate financial performance and mixed technical indicators. The positive sentiment from the earnings call, highlighting strong revenue growth and merger integration, significantly boosts the score. However, valuation concerns due to negative earnings and the lack of dividends weigh heavily on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

TEAD confirmed that it expects to cut costs by $40mm in FY25 and by an additional $20mm in FY26.

Growth Prospects

Outbrain has projected it will return to growth, driven by new products.

Strategic Acquisition

OB's acquisition of Teads is a key upside value driver in 2025, both strategically and financially.

Negative Factors

Execution Risk

M&A and large integrations carry heightened execution risk which has been the primary reason behind the analyst remaining Neutral despite liking the deal strategically for Outbrain and valuation that is looking more attractive.

Revenue Performance

A portion of the 2Q25 revenue decline was attributable to legacy Outbrain cutting some low-conversion rate supply.

Sales Force Challenges

Sales force attrition is impacting near-term results.

Teads Holding (TEAD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$182.35M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)416.79K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.85

Revenue Growth19.67%

EPS Growth-1183.48%

CountryUS

Employees1,800

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength90

IndustryPublishing

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.10

Shares Outstanding94,971,710

10 Day Avg. Volume578,652

30 Day Avg. Volume416,794

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.93

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.75

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.08

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-111.39

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$3.22

Price Target Upside67.71% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

Teads Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOutbrain (OB) is a leading content discovery platform that operates within the digital advertising and marketing sectors. The company provides tools and services that enable publishers to monetize their content through personalized content recommendations and native advertising. Outbrain's core products are designed to enhance user engagement by delivering relevant content and advertisements to audiences across various digital platforms.

How the Company Makes MoneyOutbrain makes money primarily through its native advertising platform, which connects advertisers with digital publishers. The company earns revenue by placing sponsored content and advertisements on the websites of its publishing partners. Advertisers pay Outbrain based on the performance of these ads, typically using a cost-per-click (CPC) or cost-per-mille (CPM) model. Outbrain shares a portion of this advertising revenue with its publisher partners, while retaining a margin for its services. Significant partnerships with major publishers and media companies, as well as advancements in data analytics and machine learning for better ad targeting, contribute to Outbrain's earnings.

Teads Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -25.58%|

Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment due to strong financial performance, successful integration of the merger, and growth in CTV revenue. However, there are notable challenges, including a pro forma revenue decline, significant acquisition costs, and cash flow issues. The company appears optimistic about future growth and cost synergies.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Successful Merger and Integration

Outbrain and Teads merged on February 3, forming the new Teads. The company achieved significant milestones in integration, with 90% of headcount-related synergies actioned and a focus on achieving $60 million in annualized cost savings by 2026.

Strong Financial Performance

Revenue in Q1 was approximately $286 million, reflecting an increase of 32% year over year on an as-reported basis. Ex-TAC gross profit in the quarter was $103.1 million, an increase of 98% year over year.

Growth in CTV Revenue

CTV revenue grew over 50% year over year, now representing approximately 5% of total ad spend, with access to more than 300 million TV screens globally.

Positive Client Engagement

The company closed Q1 with over 50 Joint Business Partnerships (JBPs) including new commitments with Ferrero, Halion, Philip Morris International, and Beiersdorf. More than 500 advertisers are spending at least $500,000 annually on the platform.

Negative Updates

Pro Forma Revenue Decline

There was a year-over-year decline of approximately 7% on a pro forma basis for the full quarter, following a 9% decline year over year in Q4.

Significant Acquisition and Restructuring Costs

The quarter recognized $16 million of acquisition-related costs, $16 million from the impairment of intangible assets, and $7 million of restructuring charges.

Free Cash Flow Challenges

Free cash flow was a use of cash of approximately $7 million in the quarter, negatively impacted by $16 million of acquisition-related costs and restructuring charges.

Company Guidance

During the Outbrain Inc. First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, management provided guidance on several key financial metrics. They reported achieving their Q1 guidance for Ex-TAC gross profit and adjusted EBITDA, with Ex-TAC gross profit reaching $103.1 million, a 98% year-over-year increase due to the acquisition of Teads. Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was $10.7 million, a more than sevenfold increase from the previous year. They targeted $60 million in annualized cost savings by 2026, with $40 million expected in 2025, primarily from compensation-related synergies, of which 90% have been actioned. For Q2, they guided Ex-TAC gross profit to be between $141 million and $150 million, and adjusted EBITDA between $26 million and $34 million. Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be at least $180 million. Revenue in Q1 was approximately $286 million, a 32% increase year-over-year, driven by the acquisition, with a pro forma year-over-year decline of approximately 7% for the full quarter. The company also highlighted ongoing integration efforts, with $16 million in acquisition-related costs, $16 million in impairment of intangible assets, and $7 million in restructuring charges recorded in the quarter.

Teads Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Outbrain demonstrates moderate financial health with challenges in profitability and operational efficiencies. The balance sheet reflects significant reliance on debt, which, coupled with stable but unremarkable equity growth, suggests a need for financial restructuring. However, the cash flow position remains relatively stable, providing some resilience against financial volatility.

Income Statement

Neutral

Outbrain has faced challenges in maintaining profitability, with negative net income and declining EBIT margins over TTM. Although there was a slight increase in revenue TTM, the company has not managed to convert this into operating profits, indicating operational inefficiencies and intense competitive pressure in the industry.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company's balance sheet reveals a moderate level of leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio reflecting significant borrowing. Stockholders' equity is stable but not growing significantly, and the equity ratio is modest, indicating reliance on external financing. There is a need for improved financial structure to support long-term stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Outbrain's cash flow position is relatively stable, with positive free cash flow TTM and a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio. However, fluctuating cash flows from investing and financing activities suggest potential volatility and risk in cash management strategies.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	889.88M	935.82M	992.08M	1.02B	767.14M
Gross Profit	192.10M	184.80M	192.65M	240.26M	165.06M
EBITDA	24.83M	42.45M	15.97M	11.98M	26.99M
Net Income	-711.00K	10.24M	-24.58M	10.99M	4.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	549.21M	664.64M	781.15M	795.89M	356.49M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	166.13M	165.20M	272.49M	455.40M	93.64M
Total Debt	15.82M	130.90M	247.68M	239.07M	3.85M
Total Liabilities	317.87M	441.57M	563.36M	539.12M	436.30M
Stockholders Equity	231.34M	223.06M	217.79M	256.77M	-79.81M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	51.27M	-6.49M	-22.13M	36.71M	42.48M
Operating Cash Flow	68.56M	13.75M	3.81M	56.76M	52.99M
Investing Cash Flow	67.15M	69.64M	-317.90M	-20.10M	-9.42M
Financing Cash Flow	-117.70M	-117.07M	-31.70M	325.89M	-4.23M

Teads Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price1.92

Price Trends

50DMA

2.54

Negative

100DMA

2.94

Negative

200DMA

4.38

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.21

Positive

RSI

34.79

Neutral

STOCH

16.54

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TEAD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.52, below the 50-day MA of 2.54, and below the 200-day MA of 4.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TEAD.

Teads Holding Risk Analysis

Teads Holding disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Teads Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Teads Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SSTK	81 Outperform	$717.64M	11.22	11.62%	5.80%	14.20%	38.92%
TBLA	72 Outperform	$958.40M	88.01	1.40%	―	12.01%	―
Sector *	60 Neutral	$43.99B	4.24	-10.43%	4.00%	2.31%	-34.39%
TEAD	57 Neutral	$182.35M	―	-16.75%	―	19.67%	-1183.48%
THRY	57 Neutral	$590.06M	―	-42.15%	―	-13.60%	69.70%
PERI	55 Neutral	$413.44M	41.65	-0.67%	―	-38.18%	-107.00%
ZH	48 Neutral	$375.16M	―	-0.39%	―	-19.68%	99.02%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TEAD

Teads Holding

1.88

-3.02

-61.63%

PERI

Perion Network

9.02

0.33

3.80%

SSTK

Shutterstock

21.71

-13.16

-37.74%

THRY

Thryv Holdings

13.85

-3.93

-22.10%

TBLA

Taboola.com

3.31

0.08

2.48%

Zhihu

4.28

1.22

39.87%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 30, 2025