PubMatic (PUBM)
NASDAQ:PUBM
Top Page
PubMatic
(NASDAQ:PUBM)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▲(12.96% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is primarily supported by strong cash flow generation and a low-leverage balance sheet, reinforced by a constructive earnings call emphasizing AI-driven momentum and efficiency gains. Offsetting these positives are stalled revenue growth and weakened profitability (including a small 2025 loss), mixed/near-term cautious guidance, and only neutral-to-soft technical signals within a longer-term downtrend; valuation is also pressured by a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
PubMatic's strong operating cash flow (~$81M) and positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for product investment, capex guidance ($15–19M), and sizable buybacks. Robust cash conversion cushions cyclicality in ad demand and supports strategic initiatives without relying on external financing.
Negative Factors
Stalled revenue growth
Revenue decelerated from prior multi-year growth to slightly negative in 2025, reflecting structural pressure on top-line momentum. Prolonged or recurring stagnation would impair operating leverage, slow investment returns from AI initiatives, and make it harder to absorb margin headwinds over subsequent quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
PubMatic's strong operating cash flow (~$81M) and positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for product investment, capex guidance ($15–19M), and sizable buybacks. Robust cash conversion cushions cyclicality in ad demand and supports strategic initiatives without relying on external financing.
Read all positive factors
PubMatic (PUBM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$398.68M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)839.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth-0.68%
EPS Growth-146.14%
CountryUS
Employees1,049
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.14
Shares Outstanding39,142,185
10 Day Avg. Volume685,890
30 Day Avg. Volume839,754
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.59
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio6.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.10Price Target Upside43.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$286.66M
PubMatic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PubMatic, Inc. provides a cloud infrastructure platform that enables real-time programmatic advertising transactions for Internet content creators and advertisers worldwide. The company's solutions include Openwrap, a header bidding solution that ...
How the Company Makes Money
PubMatic generates revenue primarily through its programmatic advertising platform, which operates on a cost-per-impression (CPM) model. The company earns money by charging advertisers for each ad impression served through its platform, while also...
PubMatic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate
Measures revenue growth from existing customers, indicating customer satisfaction, product value, and the potential for upselling or cross-selling.
Measures revenue growth from existing customers, indicating customer satisfaction, product value, and the potential for upselling or cross-selling.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPubMatic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum driven by AI adoption, CTV and mobile growth, improved efficiency and robust cash generation. Management highlighted substantial early traction in agentic AI (AgenticOS) and meaningful diversification wins (50 new DSPs, regional growth). Near‑term headwinds include a legacy DSP transition and political ad decline (pressuring the Americas), modest Q1 guidance and additional operating costs from litigation and data‑center pass‑throughs. Overall, the positives — margin expansion, free cash flow growth, platform scale, and accelerating AI‑led product adoption — outweigh the listed near‑term challenges, with management expecting a return to double‑digit revenue growth and margin expansion in the second half of 2026.Positive Updates
Q4 Financial Outperformance and Margin Expansion
Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in ahead of guidance; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $27.8 million representing a 35% margin. GAAP net income in Q4 was $6.7 million, or $0.14 per diluted share.
Negative Updates
Legacy DSP and Political Advertising Headwinds
Reported results were impacted by a large legacy DSP change and a decline in political advertising; the Americas region declined ~18% year‑over‑year primarily due to these factors. Management expects the legacy DSP impact to be lapped by the end of Q2 but it depresses near‑term growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q4 Financial Outperformance and Margin Expansion
Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in ahead of guidance; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $27.8 million representing a 35% margin. GAAP net income in Q4 was $6.7 million, or $0.14 per diluted share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 revenue of $58–60 million and Q1 adjusted EBITDA of −$0.5 million to $1.0 million (noting a negative FX impact), said January revenues were in line with expectations, and indicated the midpoint of Q1 guidance implies high‑single‑digit YoY growth excluding the legacy DSP headwind (which they expect to lap by the end of Q2); they reiterated a return to double‑digit revenue growth in H2 2026 with corresponding margin expansion from AI efficiencies, forecast full‑year cost of revenue to rise in the low single digits, full‑year operating expenses to grow in the mid single digits (with sequential quarterly OpEx up marginally in the low single digits), and set full‑year CapEx at $15–19 million — alongside balance‑sheet metrics of $145.5 million cash, zero debt, $46 million free cash flow in 2025 (up 32% YoY) and $93.9 million remaining on the share repurchase authorization.PubMatic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 282.93M | 291.26M | 267.01M | 256.38M | 226.91M |
| Gross Profit | 179.84M | 190.23M | 167.78M | 174.87M | 168.59M |
| EBITDA | 27.82M | 49.28M | 46.81M | 77.55M | 74.46M |
| Net Income | -14.46M | 12.50M | 8.88M | 28.70M | 56.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 680.20M | 739.52M | 695.24M | 642.17M | 550.22M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 145.52M | 140.59M | 175.34M | 174.40M | 159.63M |
| Total Debt | 43.86M | 45.38M | 28.21M | 26.59M | 25.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 417.61M | 462.26M | 399.04M | 329.99M | 293.04M |
| Stockholders Equity | 262.59M | 277.26M | 296.20M | 312.19M | 257.18M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 66.71M | 34.90M | 52.83M | 38.32M | 49.32M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.06M | 73.42M | 81.12M | 87.21M | 88.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 6.07M | 22.31M | -39.02M | -81.37M | -96.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -42.73M | -73.48M | -55.98M | 4.04M | 9.36M |
PubMatic Technical Analysis
Positive
8.41
Price Trends
7.61
Positive
8.18
Positive
8.95
Negative
Market Momentum
0.16
Negative
59.46
Neutral
75.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PUBM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.20, above the 50-day MA of 7.61, and below the 200-day MA of 8.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PUBM.
PubMatic Risk Analysis
PubMatic disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PubMatic reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PubMatic Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $667.74M | 8.21 | 19.72% | ― | 22.97% | 49.49% | |
66 Neutral | $348.25M | -11.71 | -19.64% | ― | -6.23% | 28.57% | |
64 Neutral | $398.68M | -28.83 | -5.64% | ― | -0.68% | -146.14% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $353.47M | 39.18 | 1.68% | ― | 1.62% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $276.80M | -29.46 | -25.34% | ― | -24.30% | -181.62% | |
50 Neutral | $224.41M | -17.10 | -48.65% | ― | 2.97% | 53.53% |
* Technology Sector Average
PUBM
PubMatic
8.41
0.12
1.45%
API
Agora
3.78
0.64
20.38%
CMRC
Commerce.com
2.73
-2.59
-48.68%
ONTF
ON24
8.10
3.42
73.08%
SMRT
SmartRent
1.44
0.63
77.78%
DSP
Viant Technology
10.54
-2.72
-20.51%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.