Trade Desk (TTD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.17B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 20.24M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.17
• Revenue Growth: 20.82%
• EPS Growth: 41.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,522
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 432,868,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 30,869,577
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 20,239,335
• PEG Ratio: 2.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.41
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.32
• 1Y Price Target: $34.50
• Price Target Upside: 24.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 33
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.13
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.27B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $33.00 ▲(19.31% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (growth, high margins, low leverage, and robust free cash flow). Earnings-call signals are positive but tempered by conservative near-term guidance and vertical softness (CPG/auto). Technicals and valuation are the main offsets, with the stock still below key longer-term moving averages and a premium P/E with no dividend.

Positive Factors

Cash generation & Balance Sheet

Consistent, sizable operating and free cash flow combined with a net cash position and no debt provide durable financial flexibility. This supports continued product investment, buybacks, and ability to weather cyclical ad spend swings without compromising operations or strategic initiatives.

Revenue growth & margin durability

Sustained top-line expansion alongside consistently high gross margins indicates strong unit economics from the platform model. Healthy net margins reflect operating leverage potential, enabling reinvestment while preserving profitability across medium-term cycles and supporting scale advantages.

Product innovation & adoption

Widespread Kokai adoption and new product suites create durable competitive differentiation in decisioning, identity and deal orchestration. Deep product integration raises switching costs, enhances ROI for advertisers, and underpins longer-term client retention and higher wallet share.

Negative Factors

Vertical concentration risk

Material exposure (~25%) to CPG and auto makes revenue sensitive to commodity cycles, tariff shifts and consumer demand volatility. Prolonged softness in these verticals can depress growth and obscure underlying demand, limiting visibility and increasing near-to-medium term revenue variability.

Working capital / cash cycle

Long receivable days relative to payables creates an extended cash conversion cycle that grows with revenue. While absolute cash is strong today, slower collection or faster scaling of revenue could strain liquidity or require more external funding or slower repurchases, impacting capital allocation flexibility.

Rising operating expense pressure

Accelerating non-SBC operating spend to build infrastructure and AI capabilities can compress margins if top-line growth decelerates. Persistent higher opex increases earnings sensitivity to revenue cycles and raises the bar for sustained margin targets over the medium term.

Trade Desk Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company operates a self-service cloud-based platform that allows buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social on various devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. It also provides data and other value-added services. The company serves advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Trade Desk primarily generates revenue through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, charging advertisers fees based on their advertising spend on the platform. The company earns money by taking a percentage of the total media spend that advertisers allocate for their campaigns, known as the 'take rate.' Key revenue streams include fees from demand-side platform (DSP) services, which allow advertisers to access and buy inventory from various ad exchanges. Additionally, Trade Desk has developed partnerships with various data providers, enabling advertisers to leverage audience data for targeted campaigns, further enhancing the platform's value and driving additional revenue. Their focus on data-driven advertising and continuous innovation in ad technology also contribute to their earnings by attracting a diverse range of clients across multiple industries.

Trade Desk Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong financial quality supported by rapid revenue growth (2020–2025), consistently high gross margins (~79–82%), improving net margin to ~15% in 2025, low leverage (D/E ~0.18), and strong operating cash flow/free cash flow ($0.99B/$0.80B in 2025). Key risks are profitability variability (notably the 2022 dip and lower net margin vs. 2024) and modest cash conversion by the provided OCF coverage metric.

Income Statement

Trade Desk shows strong top-line momentum with revenue rising from $0.84B (2020) to $2.90B (2025), including very strong growth in 2025. Profitability is healthy for the industry: gross margin remains consistently high (~79–82%) and net margin improved meaningfully versus 2022 (when profits were pressured), landing at ~15% in 2025. A key watch-out is some variability in profitability over the cycle (notably the 2022 dip and lower net margin than 2024), suggesting earnings can be sensitive to spending levels and operating costs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage: debt-to-equity is modest across the period and sits at ~0.18 in 2025, indicating limited balance-sheet risk. Total assets have expanded alongside the business. Returns on equity have improved versus earlier years and remain solid (~18% in 2025), though equity fell from 2024 to 2025, which is worth monitoring for capital allocation effects (e.g., buybacks or other balance-sheet changes).

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a major strength: operating cash flow increased to ~$0.99B in 2025 and free cash flow reached ~$0.80B, with strong year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2025. Free cash flow remains substantial relative to reported earnings (free cash flow is ~80–91% of net income across most years), supporting financial flexibility. One weaker point is that operating cash flow coverage is consistently modest (and ~0.30 in 2025 per provided data), which implies cash conversion—by that measure—could be better even though absolute cash flow is strong.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.90B	2.44B	1.95B	1.58B	1.20B
Gross Profit	2.28B	1.97B	1.58B	1.30B	974.91M
EBITDA	774.54M	514.66M	280.90M	168.08M	167.04M
Net Income	443.30M	393.08M	178.94M	53.38M	137.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.15B	6.11B	4.89B	4.38B	3.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.30B	1.92B	1.38B	1.45B	958.78M
Total Debt	436.33M	312.21M	235.89M	260.96M	284.60M
Total Liabilities	3.67B	3.16B	2.72B	2.27B	2.05B
Stockholders Equity	2.48B	2.95B	2.16B	2.12B	1.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	795.71M	632.39M	543.30M	456.85M	318.54M
Operating Cash Flow	992.72M	739.46M	598.32M	548.73M	378.51M
Investing Cash Flow	-292.63M	-157.51M	-107.59M	-304.37M	-93.64M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.41B	-107.61M	-626.11M	31.99M	31.93M

Trade Desk Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 27.66
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TTD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.01, below the 50-day MA of 31.07, and below the 200-day MA of 50.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TTD.

Trade Desk Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TTD	73 Outperform	$13.17B	41.10	16.89%	―	20.82%	41.82%
DOCU	68 Neutral	$9.74B	44.25	15.14%	―	8.45%	-69.85%
MGNI	67 Neutral	$1.88B	16.00	17.85%	―	6.27%	226.16%
DDOG	65 Neutral	$43.42B	438.37	3.24%	―	26.63%	-46.13%
DSP	65 Neutral	$655.55M	35.38	5.23%	―	22.97%	49.49%
PUBM	64 Neutral	$402.94M	-28.83	-5.64%	―	-0.68%	-146.14%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%

Trade Desk Corporate Events

The Trade Desk Announces Board Resignation and Governance Transition

On March 3, 2026, The Trade Desk announced that Gokul Rajaram had decided to resign from its board of directors, with his departure effective April 3, 2026, after serving on the board since May 2018. The company emphasized that Rajaram’s resignation was not due to any disagreement over operations, policies or practices, and the board formally thanked him for his years of service, signaling an orderly transition in its governance structure.

The board’s acknowledgment of his contributions and the absence of reported conflict indicate that this leadership change is expected to be non-disruptive to the company’s strategic direction. While the announcement marks the end of a long tenure by a seasoned director, it also opens the door for potential refreshment of board expertise as The Trade Desk continues to navigate the competitive digital advertising landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (TTD) stock is a Hold with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trade Desk stock, see the TTD Stock Forecast page.

Trade Desk Posts Strong 2025 Results, Expands Share Buybacks

On February 25, 2026, The Trade Desk reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing revenue of $2.9 billion for 2025, up 18% year on year, with GAAP net income of $443 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, maintaining a 41% adjusted EBITDA margin. The company highlighted $13.4 billion in gross spend, customer retention above 95% for the twelfth consecutive year, and ongoing product and partnership initiatives in identity, retail data, and connected TV, underlining its strengthening role in the global ad tech ecosystem.

The Trade Desk also disclosed aggressive capital returns, having deployed about $1.4 billion to repurchase Class A shares in 2025 at an average price of $52.60 and using $423 million in the fourth quarter alone. Reflecting confidence in its cash generation and market position, the board in February 2026 authorized an additional $350 million in buybacks, lifting remaining capacity for future repurchases to $500 million, while the company issued initial guidance calling for at least $678 million in revenue and about $195 million in adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TTD) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trade Desk stock, see the TTD Stock Forecast page.

Trade Desk Names Interim CFO Amid Leadership Transition

On January 24, 2026, The Trade Desk appointed longstanding finance executive Tahnil Davis as its principal accounting officer and interim chief financial officer, succeeding Alex Kayyal, whose employment as CFO and principal financial and accounting officer ended the same day, though he is expected to remain on the board until the 2026 annual meeting. Davis, who has held senior finance and accounting roles at the company since 2015, will oversee the finance function while the company conducts an external search for a permanent CFO, under a new employment agreement that includes a higher base salary, increased target bonus and a quarterly retention bonus tied to her interim CFO service, signaling an effort to ensure continuity in financial leadership as The Trade Desk finalizes its 2025 results and reaffirms its previously issued fourth-quarter 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TTD) stock is a Buy with a $74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trade Desk stock, see the TTD Stock Forecast page.

Trade Desk Receives Nasdaq Reprimand for Rule Violation

On December 9, 2025, The Trade Desk, Inc. received a reprimand from Nasdaq for violating voting rights rules due to an amendment to its articles of incorporation. The amendment, approved on September 16, 2025, extended the conversion date of Class B to Class A shares. Despite the reprimand, Nasdaq closed the matter with no further action, and the company’s stock listing remains unaffected.

The most recent analyst rating on (TTD) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trade Desk stock, see the TTD Stock Forecast page.