Trade Desk (TTD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.93B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 20.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.19
• Revenue Growth: 20.82%
• EPS Growth: 41.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,522
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 432,868,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 24,403,765
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 20,123,585
• PEG Ratio: 2.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.81
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.98
• 1Y Price Target: $33.03
• Price Target Upside: 31.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 34
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.12
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.27B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(11.69% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (growth, high margins, low leverage, and robust free cash flow). Earnings-call signals are positive but tempered by conservative near-term guidance and vertical softness (CPG/auto). Technicals and valuation are the main offsets, with the stock still below key longer-term moving averages and a premium P/E with no dividend.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation and low leverage

Sustained high operating and free cash flow with a net cash position provides durable financial flexibility. It funds buybacks, product investments and data center buildouts without relying on debt, reducing solvency risk and enabling strategic optionality over the next 2–6 months.

High and stable gross margins with improving net margin

Very high gross margins indicate durable platform economics and pricing leverage. Improving net margin demonstrates operating leverage as revenue scales, supporting persistent profitability even with reinvestment, and underpins sustainable cash generation over the medium term.

Product adoption, AI differentiation and CTV market leadership

Near-universal Kokai adoption and strong CTV exposure reflect differentiated product capabilities and access to a growing ad channel. Deepening AI, identity and retail data features raise switching costs and expand addressable spend, supporting durable client retention and revenue growth.

Negative Factors

Agency relationship risk — Publicis audit action

Loss of recommendation from a major holding company is a structural distribution risk: reduced agency advocacy can materially lower downstream advertiser spend routed to the platform and weaken new-business momentum from agency-run budgets over several quarters.

Vertical concentration: CPG and auto softness

With ~25% of revenue tied to CPG and auto, persistent sector weakness materially reduces visibility and can depress growth and margins. Prolonged underperformance in these verticals would constrain top-line expansion and amplify forecast uncertainty over the medium term.

Rising operating expenses and reinvestment pressure

Accelerating ex-SBC operating costs reflect heavy investment in infrastructure and talent. While strategic, higher fixed costs increase earnings cyclicality and require continued revenue growth to sustain margins; slower demand risks compressing adjusted EBITDA and cash conversion.

Trade Desk Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company operates a self-service cloud-based platform that allows buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social on various devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. It also provides data and other value-added services. The company serves advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.

How the Company Makes Money

The Trade Desk primarily makes money by charging for the use of its programmatic advertising platform. Revenue is largely generated as advertisers spend through the platform to purchase ad impressions in real-time auctions and other programmatic transactions across multiple digital channels (notably CTV and online video). The company typically earns fees tied to client advertising spend executed via its DSP (i.e., platform fees that scale with media buying activity), rather than owning media inventory itself. Additional revenue can be supported by value-added platform capabilities—such as data-related features, identity and audience targeting tools, and measurement/optimization functionality—delivered through integrations with third-party partners. Key factors and partnerships that contribute to earnings include: (1) relationships with advertisers and agencies that route budgets through The Trade Desk; (2) integrations with supply-side platforms (SSPs), publishers, and exchanges that provide access to ad inventory; (3) partnerships with data providers and measurement/attribution partners that enhance targeting and campaign analytics; and (4) growth in high-demand channels such as connected TV, where programmatic ad buying has expanded. If specific contractual take rates, exact fee structures, or partner-specific revenue contributions are not publicly available at a granular level, they are null.

Trade Desk Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong financial quality supported by rapid revenue growth (2020–2025), consistently high gross margins (~79–82%), improving net margin to ~15% in 2025, low leverage (D/E ~0.18), and strong operating cash flow/free cash flow ($0.99B/$0.80B in 2025). Key risks are profitability variability (notably the 2022 dip and lower net margin vs. 2024) and modest cash conversion by the provided OCF coverage metric.

Income Statement

Trade Desk shows strong top-line momentum with revenue rising from $0.84B (2020) to $2.90B (2025), including very strong growth in 2025. Profitability is healthy for the industry: gross margin remains consistently high (~79–82%) and net margin improved meaningfully versus 2022 (when profits were pressured), landing at ~15% in 2025. A key watch-out is some variability in profitability over the cycle (notably the 2022 dip and lower net margin than 2024), suggesting earnings can be sensitive to spending levels and operating costs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage: debt-to-equity is modest across the period and sits at ~0.18 in 2025, indicating limited balance-sheet risk. Total assets have expanded alongside the business. Returns on equity have improved versus earlier years and remain solid (~18% in 2025), though equity fell from 2024 to 2025, which is worth monitoring for capital allocation effects (e.g., buybacks or other balance-sheet changes).

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a major strength: operating cash flow increased to ~$0.99B in 2025 and free cash flow reached ~$0.80B, with strong year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2025. Free cash flow remains substantial relative to reported earnings (free cash flow is ~80–91% of net income across most years), supporting financial flexibility. One weaker point is that operating cash flow coverage is consistently modest (and ~0.30 in 2025 per provided data), which implies cash conversion—by that measure—could be better even though absolute cash flow is strong.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.90B	2.44B	1.95B	1.58B	1.20B
Gross Profit	2.28B	1.97B	1.58B	1.30B	974.91M
EBITDA	774.54M	514.66M	280.90M	168.08M	167.04M
Net Income	443.30M	393.08M	178.94M	53.38M	137.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.15B	6.11B	4.89B	4.38B	3.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.30B	1.92B	1.38B	1.45B	958.78M
Total Debt	436.33M	312.21M	235.89M	260.96M	284.60M
Total Liabilities	3.67B	3.16B	2.72B	2.27B	2.05B
Stockholders Equity	2.48B	2.95B	2.16B	2.12B	1.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	795.71M	632.39M	543.30M	456.85M	318.54M
Operating Cash Flow	992.72M	739.46M	598.32M	548.73M	378.51M
Investing Cash Flow	-292.63M	-157.51M	-107.59M	-304.37M	-93.64M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.41B	-107.61M	-626.11M	31.99M	31.93M

Trade Desk Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 25.07
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TTD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.05, below the 50-day MA of 29.93, and below the 200-day MA of 49.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TTD.

Trade Desk Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DSP	75 Outperform	$744.40M	8.21	19.72%	―	22.97%	49.49%
TTD	73 Outperform	$11.93B	41.10	16.89%	―	20.82%	41.82%
DOCU	73 Outperform	$9.52B	34.35	15.65%	―	8.45%	-69.85%
MGNI	67 Neutral	$1.78B	16.00	17.85%	―	6.27%	226.16%
DDOG	65 Neutral	$45.46B	438.37	3.24%	―	26.63%	-46.13%
PUBM	64 Neutral	$387.30M	-28.83	-5.64%	―	-0.68%	-146.14%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%

Trade Desk Corporate Events

The Trade Desk Announces Board Resignation and Governance Transition

On March 3, 2026, The Trade Desk announced that Gokul Rajaram had decided to resign from its board of directors, with his departure effective April 3, 2026, after serving on the board since May 2018. The company emphasized that Rajaram’s resignation was not due to any disagreement over operations, policies or practices, and the board formally thanked him for his years of service, signaling an orderly transition in its governance structure.

The board’s acknowledgment of his contributions and the absence of reported conflict indicate that this leadership change is expected to be non-disruptive to the company’s strategic direction. While the announcement marks the end of a long tenure by a seasoned director, it also opens the door for potential refreshment of board expertise as The Trade Desk continues to navigate the competitive digital advertising landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (TTD) stock is a Hold with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trade Desk stock, see the TTD Stock Forecast page.

Trade Desk Posts Strong 2025 Results, Expands Share Buybacks

On February 25, 2026, The Trade Desk reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing revenue of $2.9 billion for 2025, up 18% year on year, with GAAP net income of $443 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, maintaining a 41% adjusted EBITDA margin. The company highlighted $13.4 billion in gross spend, customer retention above 95% for the twelfth consecutive year, and ongoing product and partnership initiatives in identity, retail data, and connected TV, underlining its strengthening role in the global ad tech ecosystem.

The Trade Desk also disclosed aggressive capital returns, having deployed about $1.4 billion to repurchase Class A shares in 2025 at an average price of $52.60 and using $423 million in the fourth quarter alone. Reflecting confidence in its cash generation and market position, the board in February 2026 authorized an additional $350 million in buybacks, lifting remaining capacity for future repurchases to $500 million, while the company issued initial guidance calling for at least $678 million in revenue and about $195 million in adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TTD) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trade Desk stock, see the TTD Stock Forecast page.

Trade Desk Names Interim CFO Amid Leadership Transition

On January 24, 2026, The Trade Desk appointed longstanding finance executive Tahnil Davis as its principal accounting officer and interim chief financial officer, succeeding Alex Kayyal, whose employment as CFO and principal financial and accounting officer ended the same day, though he is expected to remain on the board until the 2026 annual meeting. Davis, who has held senior finance and accounting roles at the company since 2015, will oversee the finance function while the company conducts an external search for a permanent CFO, under a new employment agreement that includes a higher base salary, increased target bonus and a quarterly retention bonus tied to her interim CFO service, signaling an effort to ensure continuity in financial leadership as The Trade Desk finalizes its 2025 results and reaffirms its previously issued fourth-quarter 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TTD) stock is a Buy with a $74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trade Desk stock, see the TTD Stock Forecast page.