Trade Desk (TTD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 13.45M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: 20.82%
• EPS Growth: 41.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,522
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 440,318,940
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 13,399,916
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 13,454,287
• PEG Ratio: 2.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.47
• 1Y Price Target: $35.32
• Price Target Upside: 40.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 29
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.09
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.35B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(11.29% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is supported mainly by strong financial performance (high margins, strong free cash flow, low leverage) and a positive earnings outlook centered on CTV growth and platform innovation. Offsetting these strengths are notably weak technicals (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD) and a moderately demanding valuation with no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow

Robust free cash flow near $0.8B in 2025 and FCF that is ~80–91% of net income provide durable financial flexibility. This supports R&D, product investments, buybacks, and weathering ad-market cycles without relying on external financing, strengthening long-term resilience.

High margins and revenue scale

Sustained revenue growth to $2.9B combined with very high gross margins (~79–82%) creates structural profitability advantages. High gross margins give room to invest in product and sales while protecting operating margins against medium-term pricing or cost variability.

Strong customer retention & CTV leadership

Consistently >95% client retention and CTV leadership indicate platform stickiness and growing exposure to a premium channel. Combined with ongoing product innovations (Kokai, OpenPath, etc.), this deepens the ecosystem moat and supports predictable recurring spend from advertisers over time.

Negative Factors

Intensifying competition from big tech

Large integrated platforms enhancing their ad-buying stacks can structurally compress pricing and access to premium inventory. The Trade Desk's independent DSP model faces sustained margin and share-pressure risk as advertisers weigh convenience of vertically integrated buyers against neutral platforms.

Profitability variability across cycles

Earnings and margins have shown sensitivity to ad-market cycles and client spending shifts, evidenced by a 2022 profit dip and margin variance. This cyclical profitability raises execution risk: revenue swings can materially affect operating leverage and reported earnings durability.

Aggressive buybacks and equity decline

Large repurchases (~$1.4B in 2025) and an equity decline suggest capital allocation is weighted toward buybacks. While buybacks return cash to shareholders, heavy deployment can reduce balance-sheet buffer and capital for M&A or product investment, limiting strategic optionality in adverse conditions.

Trade Desk Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company operates a self-service cloud-based platform that allows buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social on various devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. It also provides data and other value-added services. The company serves advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Trade Desk primarily generates revenue through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, charging advertisers fees based on their advertising spend on the platform. The company earns money by taking a percentage of the total media spend that advertisers allocate for their campaigns, known as the 'take rate.' Key revenue streams include fees from demand-side platform (DSP) services, which allow advertisers to access and buy inventory from various ad exchanges. Additionally, Trade Desk has developed partnerships with various data providers, enabling advertisers to leverage audience data for targeted campaigns, further enhancing the platform's value and driving additional revenue. Their focus on data-driven advertising and continuous innovation in ad technology also contribute to their earnings by attracting a diverse range of clients across multiple industries.

Trade Desk Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong financial quality driven by rapid revenue growth (to $2.90B in 2025), durable high gross margins (~79–82%), and robust cash generation (2025 FCF ~$0.80B). Balance sheet risk appears low with modest leverage (~0.18 debt-to-equity). Main offsets are profitability variability (notably the 2022 dip and lower net margin vs 2024) and the noted equity decline from 2024 to 2025.

Income Statement

Trade Desk shows strong top-line momentum with revenue rising from $0.84B (2020) to $2.90B (2025), including very strong growth in 2025. Profitability is healthy for the industry: gross margin remains consistently high (~79–82%) and net margin improved meaningfully versus 2022 (when profits were pressured), landing at ~15% in 2025. A key watch-out is some variability in profitability over the cycle (notably the 2022 dip and lower net margin than 2024), suggesting earnings can be sensitive to spending levels and operating costs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage: debt-to-equity is modest across the period and sits at ~0.18 in 2025, indicating limited balance-sheet risk. Total assets have expanded alongside the business. Returns on equity have improved versus earlier years and remain solid (~18% in 2025), though equity fell from 2024 to 2025, which is worth monitoring for capital allocation effects (e.g., buybacks or other balance-sheet changes).

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a major strength: operating cash flow increased to ~$0.99B in 2025 and free cash flow reached ~$0.80B, with strong year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2025. Free cash flow remains substantial relative to reported earnings (free cash flow is ~80–91% of net income across most years), supporting financial flexibility. One weaker point is that operating cash flow coverage is consistently modest (and ~0.30 in 2025 per provided data), which implies cash conversion—by that measure—could be better even though absolute cash flow is strong.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.90B	2.44B	1.95B	1.58B	1.20B
Gross Profit	2.28B	1.97B	1.58B	1.30B	974.91M
EBITDA	608.07M	514.66M	280.90M	168.08M	167.04M
Net Income	443.30M	393.08M	178.94M	53.38M	137.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.15B	6.11B	4.89B	4.38B	3.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	658.17M	1.92B	1.38B	1.45B	958.78M
Total Debt	436.33M	312.21M	235.89M	260.96M	284.60M
Total Liabilities	3.67B	3.16B	2.72B	2.27B	2.05B
Stockholders Equity	2.48B	2.95B	2.16B	2.12B	1.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	795.71M	632.39M	543.30M	456.85M	318.54M
Operating Cash Flow	992.72M	739.46M	598.32M	548.73M	378.51M
Investing Cash Flow	-292.63M	-157.51M	-107.59M	-304.37M	-93.64M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.41B	-107.61M	-626.11M	31.99M	31.93M

Trade Desk Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 25.16
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TTD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.38, below the 50-day MA of 33.24, and below the 200-day MA of 53.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 28.24 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TTD.

Trade Desk Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TTD	70 Outperform	$12.06B	28.71	16.78%	―	20.82%	41.82%
DOCU	67 Neutral	$8.58B	30.28	15.22%	―	8.45%	-69.85%
MGNI	65 Neutral	$1.68B	31.75	7.56%	―	6.27%	226.16%
DDOG	65 Neutral	$36.83B	372.48	3.34%	―	26.63%	-46.13%
DSP	65 Neutral	$571.89M	362.12	4.45%	―	22.97%	49.49%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
PUBM	59 Neutral	$297.05M	-35.98	-2.85%	―	-0.68%	-146.14%

Trade Desk Corporate Events

Trade Desk Posts Strong 2025 Results, Expands Share Buybacks

On February 25, 2026, The Trade Desk reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing revenue of $2.9 billion for 2025, up 18% year on year, with GAAP net income of $443 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, maintaining a 41% adjusted EBITDA margin. The company highlighted $13.4 billion in gross spend, customer retention above 95% for the twelfth consecutive year, and ongoing product and partnership initiatives in identity, retail data, and connected TV, underlining its strengthening role in the global ad tech ecosystem.

The Trade Desk also disclosed aggressive capital returns, having deployed about $1.4 billion to repurchase Class A shares in 2025 at an average price of $52.60 and using $423 million in the fourth quarter alone. Reflecting confidence in its cash generation and market position, the board in February 2026 authorized an additional $350 million in buybacks, lifting remaining capacity for future repurchases to $500 million, while the company issued initial guidance calling for at least $678 million in revenue and about $195 million in adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TTD) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trade Desk stock, see the TTD Stock Forecast page.

Trade Desk Names Interim CFO Amid Leadership Transition

On January 24, 2026, The Trade Desk appointed longstanding finance executive Tahnil Davis as its principal accounting officer and interim chief financial officer, succeeding Alex Kayyal, whose employment as CFO and principal financial and accounting officer ended the same day, though he is expected to remain on the board until the 2026 annual meeting. Davis, who has held senior finance and accounting roles at the company since 2015, will oversee the finance function while the company conducts an external search for a permanent CFO, under a new employment agreement that includes a higher base salary, increased target bonus and a quarterly retention bonus tied to her interim CFO service, signaling an effort to ensure continuity in financial leadership as The Trade Desk finalizes its 2025 results and reaffirms its previously issued fourth-quarter 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TTD) stock is a Buy with a $74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trade Desk stock, see the TTD Stock Forecast page.

Trade Desk Receives Nasdaq Reprimand for Rule Violation

On December 9, 2025, The Trade Desk, Inc. received a reprimand from Nasdaq for violating voting rights rules due to an amendment to its articles of incorporation. The amendment, approved on September 16, 2025, extended the conversion date of Class B to Class A shares. Despite the reprimand, Nasdaq closed the matter with no further action, and the company’s stock listing remains unaffected.

The most recent analyst rating on (TTD) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trade Desk stock, see the TTD Stock Forecast page.