Trade Desk (TTD)
NASDAQ:TTD
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Trade Desk
(NASDAQ:TTD)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$25.00
▲(11.26% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/21/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (growth, high margins, solid free cash flow, and low leverage). Earnings-call commentary is supportive but tempered by cautious near-term guidance and vertical weakness (CPG/auto). Technical indicators remain mixed with weak longer-term trend signals, and valuation looks premium given the P/E and no provided dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Trade Desk’s strong, repeatable cash generation—~$0.99B operating cash flow and ~$0.80B free cash flow in 2025, with FCF ~80–91% of net income—provides durable funding for product investment, buybacks and liquidity. This finances growth and capital returns without levering the balance sheet.
Negative Factors
Vertical concentration risk
Relying materially on CPG and auto (≈25% of revenue) creates structural cyclical exposure. Prolonged softness in these sectors reduces visibility and can depress growth rates for multiple quarters, meaning company performance can lag broader digital ad demand when those verticals underperform.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Trade Desk’s strong, repeatable cash generation—~$0.99B operating cash flow and ~$0.80B free cash flow in 2025, with FCF ~80–91% of net income—provides durable funding for product investment, buybacks and liquidity. This finances growth and capital returns without levering the balance sheet.
Read all positive factors
Trade Desk (TTD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.01B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)18.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.1
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth18.47%
EPS Growth14.21%
CountryUS
Employees3,522
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.39
Shares Outstanding432,868,400
10 Day Avg. Volume16,414,876
30 Day Avg. Volume18,180,538
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.74
Price to Book (P/B)7.33
Price to Sales (P/S)6.29
P/FCF Ratio22.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.44Price Target Upside35.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering28
EPS Forecast (FY)1.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.26B
Trade Desk Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company operates a self-service cloud-based platform that allows buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns acros...
How the Company Makes Money
The Trade Desk primarily makes money by charging for the use of its programmatic advertising platform. Revenue is largely generated as advertisers spend through the platform to purchase ad impressions in real-time auctions and other programmatic t...
Trade Desk Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Spend
Shows the total amount spent by advertisers through Trade Desk's platform, highlighting the scale of business and potential for revenue growth.
Shows the total amount spent by advertisers through Trade Desk's platform, highlighting the scale of business and potential for revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTrade Desk Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced strong operational and financial achievements — record full-year revenue ($2.9B), high adjusted EBITDA margins (~47%), robust cash flow, no debt, significant AI/product innovations (Kokai, Audience Unlimited, Deal Desk), and clear go-to-market improvements (JBPs >50% of business) — against concentrated near-term headwinds in CPG and auto that weighed on guidance and visibility. Management emphasized disciplined reinvestment in infrastructure and AI, provided client case studies showing outsized campaign performance, and signaled confidence in long-term growth despite cautious Q1 guidance. Overall, positive momentum in product adoption, profitability and capital returns outweighs the sector-specific softness and short-term guidance conservatism.Positive Updates
Full-Year and Q4 Revenue Growth
Full year 2025 revenue of $2.9 billion, up 18% year-over-year. Q4 2025 revenue of $847 million, up 14% year-over-year on an absolute basis and up ~19% year-over-year excluding political spend.
Negative Updates
CPG and Automotive Weakness
Sustained weakness in consumer packaged goods (CPG) and some global auto companies, which together represent roughly one-quarter of the business. These verticals experienced month-to-month volatility due to tariffs, input-cost inflation and slower consumer demand; management noted growth would be at least ~5 percentage points higher if those categories were at parity with others.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year and Q4 Revenue Growth
Full year 2025 revenue of $2.9 billion, up 18% year-over-year. Q4 2025 revenue of $847 million, up 14% year-over-year on an absolute basis and up ~19% year-over-year excluding political spend.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: For Q1 2026 The Trade Desk expects revenue of at least $678 million (~10% year‑over‑year) and adjusted EBITDA of about $195 million; for full‑year 2026 management expects adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately in line with 2025. For context, full‑year 2025 revenue was $2.9 billion (18% YoY) on ~ $13.4 billion of spend; Q4 2025 revenue was $847 million (14% YoY; ~19% ex‑political) with adjusted EBITDA of ~ $400 million (~47% of revenue), operating expenses of $590 million (up 8% YoY; $478 million ex‑stock‑based comp, up 15%), net income of $187 million ($0.39 diluted, ~22% of revenue) and adjusted net income of $284 million ($0.59); Q4 operating cash flow was $312 million and free cash flow $282 million; year‑end cash and short‑term investments were ~ $1.3 billion with no debt; DSOs ≈100 days and DPOs <85 days; Q4 share repurchases were $423 million and total repurchase authorization now $500 million; management plans headcount growth below revenue growth while continuing infrastructure and AI investments.Trade Desk Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.90B | 2.44B | 1.95B | 1.58B | 1.20B |
| Gross Profit | 2.28B | 1.97B | 1.58B | 1.30B | 974.91M |
| EBITDA | 774.54M | 514.66M | 280.90M | 168.08M | 167.04M |
| Net Income | 443.30M | 393.08M | 178.94M | 53.38M | 137.76M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.15B | 6.11B | 4.89B | 4.38B | 3.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.30B | 1.92B | 1.38B | 1.45B | 958.78M |
| Total Debt | 436.33M | 312.21M | 235.89M | 260.96M | 284.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.67B | 3.16B | 2.72B | 2.27B | 2.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.48B | 2.95B | 2.16B | 2.12B | 1.53B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 795.71M | 632.39M | 543.30M | 456.85M | 318.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 992.72M | 739.46M | 598.32M | 548.73M | 378.51M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -292.63M | -157.51M | -107.59M | -304.37M | -93.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.41B | -107.61M | -626.11M | 31.99M | 31.93M |
Trade Desk Technical Analysis
Neutral
22.47
Price Trends
24.37
Negative
30.55
Negative
44.22
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.94
Negative
47.40
Neutral
83.62
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TTD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.89, below the 50-day MA of 24.37, and below the 200-day MA of 44.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.62 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TTD.
Trade Desk Risk Analysis
Trade Desk disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trade Desk reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trade Desk Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $11.01B | 41.10 | 16.89% | ― | 18.47% | 14.21% | |
73 Outperform | $8.87B | 34.08 | 15.65% | ― | 8.16% | -70.70% | |
72 Outperform | $669.01M | 8.21 | 19.72% | ― | 19.00% | 255.32% | |
67 Neutral | $1.88B | 16.00 | 17.85% | ― | 6.85% | 530.35% | |
65 Neutral | $46.80B | 256.18 | 3.24% | ― | 27.68% | -43.37% | |
64 Neutral | $454.15M | -28.83 | -5.64% | ― | -2.86% | -216.06% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TTD
Trade Desk
23.23
-30.40
-56.68%
MGNI
Magnite
12.97
1.08
9.08%
DOCU
DocuSign
45.78
-35.97
-44.00%
DDOG
Datadog
131.55
29.39
28.77%
PUBM
PubMatic
9.78
<0.01
0.10%
DSP
Viant Technology
10.57
-3.74
-26.14%
Trade Desk Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Trade Desk Expands and Extends Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Apr 20, 2026
On April 14, 2026, The Trade Desk entered into an amended and restated loan and security agreement that refinances and extends its revolving credit facility with a bank syndicate led by JPMorgan Chase to a new maturity date of April 14, 2031. The ...
Executive/Board Changes
Trade Desk Announces Routine Board Resignation and Transition
Neutral
Apr 6, 2026
On March 31, 2026, The Trade Desk, Inc. announced that board member Lise J. Buyer had informed the company of her decision to resign from its board of directors, effective April 3, 2026. The company stated that her departure, after serving on the ...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Trade Desk Faces Nasdaq Notice Amid Board Reshuffle
Neutral
Mar 25, 2026
On March 24–25, 2026, The Trade Desk disclosed that the resignations of board members Kathryn E. Falberg and Alexander Kayyal left its audit and compensation committees temporarily out of compliance with Nasdaq’s independence requireme...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
The Trade Desk Announces Board Resignation and Governance Transition
Neutral
Mar 9, 2026
On March 3, 2026, The Trade Desk announced that Gokul Rajaram had decided to resign from its board of directors, with his departure effective April 3, 2026, after serving on the board since May 2018. The company emphasized that Rajaram’s res...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Trade Desk Posts Strong 2025 Results, Expands Share Buybacks
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, The Trade Desk reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing revenue of $2.9 billion for 2025, up 18% year on year, with GAAP net income of $443 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, maintaining a 41% a...
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Trade Desk Names Interim CFO Amid Leadership Transition
Neutral
Jan 26, 2026
On January 24, 2026, The Trade Desk appointed longstanding finance executive Tahnil Davis as its principal accounting officer and interim chief financial officer, succeeding Alex Kayyal, whose employment as CFO and principal financial and accounti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.