Trade Desk (TTD)
NASDAQ:TTD
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Trade Desk
(NASDAQ:TTD)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$22.50
▲(11.11% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/10/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high margins and strong free cash flow with low balance-sheet risk) and a generally positive earnings update with ongoing product momentum, partially offset by weak technical trend signals and a premium valuation alongside cautious near-term guidance tied to CPG/auto softness.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Substantial and rising operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: funds growth investments, infrastructure and AI reinvestment, large buybacks, and cushions cyclical ad spending. Strong cash conversion supports strategic optionality and lower balance-sheet risk over multi-quarter horizons.
Negative Factors
Vertical concentration risk
Material exposure (~25%) to CPG and automotive creates structural sensitivity to those sectors' spend cycles and margin pressures. Prolonged weakness or volatility in these verticals can persistently damp revenue cadence and reduce visibility, forcing conservative guidance and uneven growth across reporting periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Substantial and rising operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: funds growth investments, infrastructure and AI reinvestment, large buybacks, and cushions cyclical ad spending. Strong cash conversion supports strategic optionality and lower balance-sheet risk over multi-quarter horizons.
Read all positive factors
Trade Desk (TTD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.64B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)23.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.1
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth20.82%
EPS Growth41.82%
CountryUS
Employees3,522
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.39
Shares Outstanding432,868,400
10 Day Avg. Volume16,805,306
30 Day Avg. Volume23,084,346
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.74
Price to Book (P/B)7.33
Price to Sales (P/S)6.29
P/FCF Ratio22.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.81Price Target Upside57.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering32
EPS Forecast (FY)1.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.27B
Trade Desk Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company operates a self-service cloud-based platform that allows buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns acros...
How the Company Makes Money
The Trade Desk primarily makes money by charging for the use of its programmatic advertising platform. Revenue is largely generated as advertisers spend through the platform to purchase ad impressions in real-time auctions and other programmatic t...
Trade Desk Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Spend
Shows the total amount spent by advertisers through Trade Desk's platform, highlighting the scale of business and potential for revenue growth.
Shows the total amount spent by advertisers through Trade Desk's platform, highlighting the scale of business and potential for revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTrade Desk Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced strong operational and financial achievements — record full-year revenue ($2.9B), high adjusted EBITDA margins (~47%), robust cash flow, no debt, significant AI/product innovations (Kokai, Audience Unlimited, Deal Desk), and clear go-to-market improvements (JBPs >50% of business) — against concentrated near-term headwinds in CPG and auto that weighed on guidance and visibility. Management emphasized disciplined reinvestment in infrastructure and AI, provided client case studies showing outsized campaign performance, and signaled confidence in long-term growth despite cautious Q1 guidance. Overall, positive momentum in product adoption, profitability and capital returns outweighs the sector-specific softness and short-term guidance conservatism.Positive Updates
Full-Year and Q4 Revenue Growth
Full year 2025 revenue of $2.9 billion, up 18% year-over-year. Q4 2025 revenue of $847 million, up 14% year-over-year on an absolute basis and up ~19% year-over-year excluding political spend.
Negative Updates
CPG and Automotive Weakness
Sustained weakness in consumer packaged goods (CPG) and some global auto companies, which together represent roughly one-quarter of the business. These verticals experienced month-to-month volatility due to tariffs, input-cost inflation and slower consumer demand; management noted growth would be at least ~5 percentage points higher if those categories were at parity with others.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year and Q4 Revenue Growth
Full year 2025 revenue of $2.9 billion, up 18% year-over-year. Q4 2025 revenue of $847 million, up 14% year-over-year on an absolute basis and up ~19% year-over-year excluding political spend.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: For Q1 2026 The Trade Desk expects revenue of at least $678 million (~10% year‑over‑year) and adjusted EBITDA of about $195 million; for full‑year 2026 management expects adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately in line with 2025. For context, full‑year 2025 revenue was $2.9 billion (18% YoY) on ~ $13.4 billion of spend; Q4 2025 revenue was $847 million (14% YoY; ~19% ex‑political) with adjusted EBITDA of ~ $400 million (~47% of revenue), operating expenses of $590 million (up 8% YoY; $478 million ex‑stock‑based comp, up 15%), net income of $187 million ($0.39 diluted, ~22% of revenue) and adjusted net income of $284 million ($0.59); Q4 operating cash flow was $312 million and free cash flow $282 million; year‑end cash and short‑term investments were ~ $1.3 billion with no debt; DSOs ≈100 days and DPOs <85 days; Q4 share repurchases were $423 million and total repurchase authorization now $500 million; management plans headcount growth below revenue growth while continuing infrastructure and AI investments.Trade Desk Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.90B | 2.44B | 1.95B | 1.58B | 1.20B |
| Gross Profit | 2.28B | 1.97B | 1.58B | 1.30B | 974.91M |
| EBITDA | 774.54M | 514.66M | 280.90M | 168.08M | 167.04M |
| Net Income | 443.30M | 393.08M | 178.94M | 53.38M | 137.76M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.15B | 6.11B | 4.89B | 4.38B | 3.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.30B | 1.92B | 1.38B | 1.45B | 958.78M |
| Total Debt | 436.33M | 312.21M | 235.89M | 260.96M | 284.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.67B | 3.16B | 2.72B | 2.27B | 2.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.48B | 2.95B | 2.16B | 2.12B | 1.53B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 795.71M | 632.39M | 543.30M | 456.85M | 318.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 992.72M | 739.46M | 598.32M | 548.73M | 378.51M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -292.63M | -157.51M | -107.59M | -304.37M | -93.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.41B | -107.61M | -626.11M | 31.99M | 31.93M |
Trade Desk Technical Analysis
Negative
20.25
Price Trends
25.56
Negative
31.92
Negative
45.93
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.56
Positive
30.55
Neutral
18.97
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TTD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.38, below the 50-day MA of 25.56, and below the 200-day MA of 45.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.97 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TTD.
Trade Desk Risk Analysis
Trade Desk disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trade Desk reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trade Desk Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $667.74M | 8.21 | 19.72% | ― | 22.97% | 49.49% | |
73 Outperform | $8.89B | 34.08 | 15.65% | ― | 8.45% | -69.85% | |
71 Outperform | $9.64B | 41.10 | 16.89% | ― | 20.82% | 41.82% | |
67 Neutral | $1.76B | 16.00 | 17.85% | ― | 6.27% | 226.16% | |
65 Neutral | $41.10B | 438.37 | 3.24% | ― | 26.63% | -46.13% | |
64 Neutral | $398.68M | -28.83 | -5.64% | ― | -0.68% | -146.14% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TTD
Trade Desk
20.25
-29.02
-58.90%
MGNI
Magnite
12.16
2.42
24.85%
DOCU
DocuSign
45.71
-27.51
-37.57%
DDOG
Datadog
116.50
23.32
25.03%
PUBM
PubMatic
8.41
0.12
1.45%
DSP
Viant Technology
10.54
-2.72
-20.51%
Trade Desk Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Trade Desk Announces Routine Board Resignation and Transition
Neutral
Apr 6, 2026
On March 31, 2026, The Trade Desk, Inc. announced that board member Lise J. Buyer had informed the company of her decision to resign from its board of directors, effective April 3, 2026. The company stated that her departure, after serving on the ...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Trade Desk Faces Nasdaq Notice Amid Board Reshuffle
Neutral
Mar 25, 2026
On March 24–25, 2026, The Trade Desk disclosed that the resignations of board members Kathryn E. Falberg and Alexander Kayyal left its audit and compensation committees temporarily out of compliance with Nasdaq’s independence requireme...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
The Trade Desk Announces Board Resignation and Governance Transition
Neutral
Mar 9, 2026
On March 3, 2026, The Trade Desk announced that Gokul Rajaram had decided to resign from its board of directors, with his departure effective April 3, 2026, after serving on the board since May 2018. The company emphasized that Rajaram’s res...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Trade Desk Posts Strong 2025 Results, Expands Share Buybacks
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, The Trade Desk reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing revenue of $2.9 billion for 2025, up 18% year on year, with GAAP net income of $443 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, maintaining a 41% a...
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Trade Desk Names Interim CFO Amid Leadership Transition
Neutral
Jan 26, 2026
On January 24, 2026, The Trade Desk appointed longstanding finance executive Tahnil Davis as its principal accounting officer and interim chief financial officer, succeeding Alex Kayyal, whose employment as CFO and principal financial and accounti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.