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Magnite (MGNI)
NASDAQ:MGNI

Magnite (MGNI) AI Stock Analysis

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MG

Magnite

(NASDAQ:MGNI)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$18.50
▲(14.91%Upside)
Magnite's strong financial performance, robust earnings call insights, and positive corporate events position the company well for future growth. However, its high valuation and technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions present potential risks. Continued focus on profitability improvements and navigating macroeconomic uncertainties will be essential for sustaining upward momentum.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Revenue ex-TAC of $146 million was ~$4 million ahead of the street, indicating a strong business model with significant growth potential.
Growth Opportunities
MGNI believes that more CTV ad inventory will shift to MGNI-sold, which would accelerate revenue growth.
Partnerships
Magnite announced an integration into Amazon Publisher Services, providing expanded access to all Amazon streaming inventory across Fire devices.
Negative Factors
Financial Guidance
MGNI's estimates are lowered due to the suspension of its financial guidance.
Market Position
MGNI could benefit significantly if GOOGL's Ad Server or SSP is spun off, as even a small increase in market share could greatly boost their revenues.
Revenue Composition
Managed service CTV revenues are down to 3-5% of total CTV revenues and on their way to 0%, with very high take rates.

Magnite (MGNI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Magnite Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMagnite, Inc. (MGNI) is a leading independent sell-side advertising platform that specializes in programmatic advertising. The company operates in the digital advertising sector, providing technology solutions to publishers and broadcasters to manage and optimize their ad inventories. Magnite offers services across various channels, including desktop, mobile, audio, and connected TV (CTV), enabling media owners to maximize their advertising revenue through real-time auctions and sales automation.
How the Company Makes MoneyMagnite makes money primarily through fees charged on transactions conducted via its platform. The company earns revenue by taking a percentage of the ad spend that flows through its platform, which includes fees for facilitating the buying and selling of digital advertising inventory. Key revenue streams include supply-side platform (SSP) services for publishers, where Magnite provides the technology and infrastructure to manage and sell ad space programmatically. Additionally, Magnite benefits from strategic partnerships with media companies and broadcasters, which enhance its inventory offerings and attract more advertisers. The company's growth is supported by the increasing shift towards programmatic advertising and the rising demand for CTV and digital video advertising solutions.

Magnite Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, indicating which areas are most profitable and where there might be opportunities or challenges in the market.
Chart InsightsMagnite's revenue on a net basis shows a steady upward trend, with notable growth in Q4 2024. This aligns with the company's strong performance in Connected TV and Display Video Plus segments, as highlighted in the latest earnings call. The anticipated launch of SpringServe and potential market share gains from the Google antitrust ruling could further boost revenue. However, macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff impacts present risks to future growth, particularly in vulnerable sectors like auto and retail.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Magnite Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 29.53%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong financial performance and growth in CTV and DV+ segments, as well as significant opportunities from the Google antitrust ruling. However, there are concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty and potential impacts from tariffs on future growth.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
CTV Growth and Partnerships
CTV contribution ex-TAC grew 15% year-over-year, driven by partnerships with major players like Netflix, Roku, and Warner Bros. Discovery.
Adjusted EBITDA Performance
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $37 million, growing 47% year-over-year, with a margin of 25% compared to 19% in Q1 last year.
DV+ Business Rebound
DV+ contribution ex-TAC increased by 9%, showing a strong recovery after previous slowdowns.
Google Antitrust Ruling Opportunity
Magnite is well-positioned to gain market share from Google due to the recent antitrust ruling, which could significantly benefit its DV+ business.
Technology and AI Investments
Magnite continues to invest in AI and technology to drive operational efficiencies and product enhancements.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
There is a potential dampening of growth rates due to tariff-related economic uncertainty, particularly affecting higher-risk verticals like auto, retail, and travel.
Potential Impact of Tariffs
Magnite has widened its guidance range for Q2 due to concerns over tariffs, which could affect ad spend in the coming months.
Company Guidance
During the Magnite Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided robust financial guidance and detailed performance metrics. Magnite exceeded its guidance for Q1, with Connected TV (CTV) growing by 15% and Display Video Plus (DV+) by 9%, showcasing a significant rebound in ad spend. Adjusted EBITDA was notably higher than expected, reaching $37 million, representing a 47% increase and a margin of 25%, compared to 19% in Q1 of the previous year. The company's CTV business excelled, driven by strong partnerships with major industry players like Roku, Netflix, and Disney. Additionally, Magnite's new generation of SpringServe, which integrates ad server capabilities with the Magnite Streaming SSP, is set to launch in July, enhancing efficiency and transparency for buyers and media owners. The company is also optimistic about its role in the potential market shift following the antitrust ruling against Google, which could level the playing field and increase Magnite's market share in the digital video space.

Magnite Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Magnite presents a compelling financial profile with strong revenue growth, improved profitability, and effective cash flow management. The company maintains a stable balance sheet with low leverage and sufficient equity. While profitability metrics show improvement, there is potential for further enhancement in return on equity. Overall, Magnite is positioned well within the traditional media industry with a trajectory towards sustained financial health.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Magnite's income statement shows a strong revenue growth rate of 7.82% from 2023 to 2024, with a significant improvement in profitability. The gross profit margin stands at 61.25%, and the net profit margin has improved to 3.41% in 2024 from a net loss in previous years. The company has also managed to achieve positive EBIT and EBITDA margins of 7.64% each, indicating efficient operations and cost management.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity base, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, suggesting low financial leverage. The company has a strong equity ratio of 26.91%, indicating a stable financial structure. Return on equity is modest at 2.97%, highlighting room for profitability improvement. Overall, the balance sheet shows financial stability with manageable debt levels.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Magnite's cash flow statement indicates strong free cash flow growth and efficient cash management. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 10.32, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is impressive at 8.89, demonstrating healthy cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow growth rate from 2023 to 2024 is 14.36%, highlighting the company's ability to generate liquidity.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
668.17M619.71M577.07M468.41M221.63M
Gross Profit
409.33M209.80M269.90M266.75M143.88M
EBIT
51.09M-155.01M-100.00M-6.20M-16.91M
EBITDA
51.09M115.64M109.72M71.40M12.57M
Net Income Common Stockholders
22.79M-159.18M-130.32M65.00K-53.43M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
483.22M326.22M326.25M230.40M117.68M
Total Assets
2.85B2.69B2.71B2.71B938.96M
Total Debt
608.81M606.65M813.86M809.25M42.09M
Net Debt
125.59M280.43M487.61M578.85M-75.58M
Total Liabilities
2.09B1.99B1.92B1.83B557.35M
Stockholders Equity
768.22M701.68M791.30M880.76M381.61M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
202.39M176.98M148.15M97.46M-34.02M
Operating Cash Flow
235.20M214.37M192.55M126.59M-12.06M
Investing Cash Flow
-47.50M-37.38M-65.15M-691.00M32.64M
Financing Cash Flow
-28.90M-177.84M-30.17M678.05M7.35M

Magnite Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.10
Price Trends
50DMA
12.65
Positive
100DMA
14.64
Positive
200DMA
14.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.00
Negative
RSI
65.67
Neutral
STOCH
34.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGNI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.48, above the 50-day MA of 12.65, and above the 200-day MA of 14.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MGNI.

Magnite Risk Analysis

Magnite disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Magnite reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Programmatic advertising presents unique challenges for CTV sellers, and CTV sellers may not adopt or may be slow to adopt programmatic solutions that transact in biddable auction environments. Q4, 2024

Magnite Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$2.17B77.464.30%5.59%
IAIAS
74
Outperform
$1.31B28.034.80%13.84%1494.51%
69
Neutral
$1.37B10.4213.46%-1.18%100.33%
ZDZD
68
Neutral
$1.35B20.074.12%3.24%36.80%
63
Neutral
$1.33B972.550.19%9.86%
62
Neutral
$867.38M-0.29%88.81%99.16%
61
Neutral
$14.08B5.95-4.18%3.68%2.79%-36.29%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MGNI
Magnite
16.10
3.89
31.86%
ZD
Ziff Davis
32.10
-22.56
-41.27%
STGW
Stagwell
4.96
-1.96
-28.32%
QNST
Quinstreet
15.23
-2.84
-15.72%
CRTO
Criteo SA
25.56
-13.80
-35.06%
IAS
Integral Ad Science
7.96
-1.76
-18.11%

Magnite Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Magnite Reduces Loan Interest Rate by 75 Basis Points
Positive
Mar 18, 2025

On March 18, 2025, Magnite, Inc. announced the successful repricing of its $363 million senior secured term loan facility, reducing the interest rate by 75 basis points to Term SOFR + 3.00%. This adjustment, which follows a previous refinancing in February 2024, results in annual interest savings of over $2.7 million, with no changes to the loan’s maturity or other terms, enhancing Magnite’s financial efficiency.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.