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Criteo SA
(NASDAQ:CRTO)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$24.50
▲(19.86% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/05/26
CRTO scores a 70 primarily due to solid underlying financial health (low leverage and strong free cash flow) and supportive technical trend (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The score is tempered by the latest earnings call, where management guided to meaningful near-term contribution declines tied to large-client pullbacks and scope reductions. Valuation helps offset these risks with a low ~9.96 P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, sizable operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for growth initiatives, capex, buybacks and debt service. Strong FCF cushions earnings cyclicality, enables strategic investment in retail media and AI, and supports shareholder returns over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue trend
A multi-percent decline in core contribution signals structural demand weakness that can compress long-term growth expectations. Persistent top-line erosion reduces scale benefits, pressures margins over time, and constrains the runway for reinvestment absent consistent recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, sizable operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for growth initiatives, capex, buybacks and debt service. Strong FCF cushions earnings cyclicality, enables strategic investment in retail media and AI, and supports shareholder returns over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Criteo SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Number of Clients
Indicates the scale of Criteo's customer base, highlighting market penetration and the potential for revenue growth through client retention and expansion.
Indicates the scale of Criteo's customer base, highlighting market penetration and the potential for revenue growth through client retention and expansion.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCriteo SA (CRTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$930.95M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)414.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.4
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth-4.24%
EPS Growth-20.11%
CountryUS
Employees3,543
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryAdvertising Agencies
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.02
Shares Outstanding48,997,560
10 Day Avg. Volume318,945
30 Day Avg. Volume414,773
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.22
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio5.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.06Price Target Upside7.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)3.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.07B
Criteo SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Criteo S.A., a technology company, provides platform to connects the commerce ecosystem for brands, agencies, retailers, and media owners to drive measurable business outcomes in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the As...
How the Company Makes Money
Criteo primarily makes money by monetizing advertising spend flowing through its platform and services. A key revenue stream is its performance and commerce advertising business, where advertisers (brands and agencies) run campaigns using Criteo’s...
Criteo SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of significant strategic progress (OpenAI partnership scaling, Criteo GO adoption, strong underlying Retail Media growth, improved pipeline and disciplined cost management) alongside meaningful near‑term revenue headwinds driven by spending reductions from several large enterprise clients, downward revisions to contribution guidance, regional softness, and elevated near‑term CapEx and FX volatility. Management emphasized profitability, cash generation and long‑term opportunity from AI and retail media while maintaining a conservative outlook for the remainder of 2026.Positive Updates
Profitability and Cash Generation
Delivered adjusted EBITDA of $73M in Q2 2026; GAAP net income $12M; trailing 12‑month free cash flow $180M; operating cash flow $20M in Q2. Management expects improved operating cash flow conversion to ~85% of adjusted EBITDA in 2026 and free cash flow conversion of ~35% of adjusted EBITDA.
Negative Updates
Top-Line Shortfall and Revised Outlook
Q2 revenue was $428M with contribution ex‑TAC $255M; at constant currency, Q2 contribution ex‑TAC declined ~12% YoY (including a $21M impact from two retail clients). Management revised 2026 outlook to expect full‑year contribution ex‑TAC to decline ~10%–12% at constant currency and Q3 contribution ex‑TAC of $237M–$241M (down ~14%–15% CC).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Profitability and Cash Generation
Delivered adjusted EBITDA of $73M in Q2 2026; GAAP net income $12M; trailing 12‑month free cash flow $180M; operating cash flow $20M in Q2. Management expects improved operating cash flow conversion to ~85% of adjusted EBITDA in 2026 and free cash flow conversion of ~35% of adjusted EBITDA.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Criteo’s updated 2026 guidance assumes no recovery from several large enterprise performance‑media clients and calls for full‑year contribution ex‑TAC to decline roughly 10–12% at constant currency; Retail Media guidance is unchanged with contribution ex‑TAC expected to decline mid‑ to high‑teens y/y at constant currency due to a ~$75M client scope reduction (excluding those two clients underlying Retail Media contribution ex‑TAC is expected to grow in the high‑teens to ~20%), while Performance Media contribution ex‑TAC is now expected to decline in the high single digits cc. For Q3 the company expects contribution ex‑TAC of $237–241M (down ~14–15% cc) with a $6–8M Q3 FX headwind (FX is expected to be a modest benefit for the full year); Q3 adjusted EBITDA is guided to $54–58M and full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be ~30%. Management also guided CapEx of about $190M in 2026, operating‑cash‑flow conversion to improve to ~85% of adjusted EBITDA (vs. 76% in 2025), free‑cash‑flow conversion of ~35% of adjusted EBITDA, a normalized tax rate of 27–32%, positive free cash flow in H2, and noted that no meaningful contribution from OpenAI/agentic AI is assumed in 2026 (with material benefit anticipated beginning in 2027).Criteo SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.86B | 1.94B | 1.93B | 1.95B | 2.02B | 2.25B |
| Gross Profit | 998.84M | 1.05B | 982.97M | 863.04M | 795.20M | 781.94M |
| EBITDA | 250.41M | 333.45M | 245.84M | 154.60M | 199.05M | 247.02M |
| Net Income | 104.40M | 144.57M | 111.57M | 53.26M | 8.95M | 134.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.01B | 2.20B | 2.27B | 2.43B | 2.35B | 1.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 280.29M | 365.28M | 316.94M | 342.31M | 398.30M | 565.83M |
| Total Debt | 148.19M | 149.72M | 107.02M | 118.45M | 108.83M | 128.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 846.65M | 1.02B | 1.19B | 1.32B | 1.27B | 785.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.13B | 1.15B | 1.05B | 1.08B | 1.05B | 1.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 177.37M | 208.50M | 180.05M | 131.75M | 171.19M | 165.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 318.97M | 311.24M | 257.70M | 224.25M | 255.99M | 220.91M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -155.22M | -101.13M | -97.90M | -108.71M | -166.12M | -76.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -110.41M | -151.48M | -270.50M | -147.25M | -113.04M | -80.12M |
Criteo SA Technical Analysis
Neutral
20.44
Price Trends
19.67
Negative
18.85
Positive
19.29
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.70
Positive
46.67
Neutral
28.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRTO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.04, above the 50-day MA of 19.67, and above the 200-day MA of 19.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CRTO.
Criteo SA Risk Analysis
Criteo SA disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Criteo SA reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Criteo SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $3.55B | 21.14 | 18.62% | ― | 8.32% | 280.46% | |
70 Outperform | $930.95M | 9.41 | 9.20% | ― | -4.24% | -20.11% | |
65 Neutral | $1.90B | 3.13 | 34.27% | ― | -8.46% | -157.54% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
55 Neutral | $420.31M | -1.54 | -51.48% | ― | 2.24% | 18.11% | |
31 Underperform | $3.59M | -3.10 | -43.19% | ― | -8.74% | 88.46% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
CRTO
Criteo SA
19.00
-4.60
-19.49%
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VSME
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1.30
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Criteo SA Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Criteo Reports Q2 Results and CFO Transition Plan
Negative
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Criteo reported second-quarter 2026 results showing an 11% year-over-year revenue decline to $428 million, a 14% drop in gross profit to $222 million, and net income of $12 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $73 million and free c...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Criteo amends credit facility amid redomiciliation plans
Neutral
Jul 31, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Criteo S.A. amended its multicurrency revolving credit facility initially signed in 2022 and previously updated in 2023, aligning the agreement with its ongoing corporate redomiciliation plan. The changes anticipate the company&#...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Criteo Shareholders Approve Governance and Capital Flexibility
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Criteo SA held its 2026 Annual Combined General Meeting of Shareholders, at which investors approved the renewal of board mandates for several directors, endorsed the company’s executive compensation on an advisory basis, a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.