Criteo SA (CRTO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $935.06M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 458.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: 0.32%
• EPS Growth: 69.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,507
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): 1.30
• Shares Outstanding: 51,151,867
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 314,846
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 458,409
• PEG Ratio: 0.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.32
• 1Y Price Target: $30.25
• Price Target Upside: 65.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.26
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.19B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.50 ▲(6.67% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is driven by improving profitability/cash flow and a strong balance sheet, supported by an inexpensive P/E. Offsetting these positives are weak technicals (downtrend) and conservative near-term guidance due to client scope reductions and higher investment, which temper the outlook despite constructive longer-term product momentum.

Positive Factors

Margin recovery & profitability

Criteo’s substantial margin recovery (gross margin up to ~54% and net margin ~7.4% TTM) signals improved operating leverage and cost control. Durable higher margins increase cash flow generation and provide management flexibility for reinvestment, buybacks or debt neutrality even if revenue growth remains uneven.

Strong cash generation and balance sheet

Robust operating cash flow (~$311M TTM) and free cash flow (~$236M TTM) with high conversion support durable capital flexibility. Combined with low leverage and a solid equity base, this cash profile funds capex, buybacks and R&D while limiting refinancing risk across a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.

Retail & performance media market traction

Underlying Retail Media and Performance Media growth — plus rapid adoption of auction-based display and notable retailer wins — indicate durable product-market fit in commerce media. These structural gains expand advertiser demand breadth and retailer supply relationships that underpin recurring revenue streams over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weak top-line momentum

Flat-to-declining revenue and a sharp TTM drop are a persistent structural risk: margin and cash improvements can be eroded if revenue does not stabilize or return to growth. Sustained top-line weakness would pressure per-unit economics, capex returns and management’s ability to scale investments profitably.

Client concentration / scope reductions

Material revenue sensitivity to a small number of large retail clients poses durability risk: disclosed scope reductions drove a sizable multi-quarter headwind. Such concentration can cause lumpy revenue, make forecasting harder and amplify downside if additional retail customers reduce scope or shift to lower-take-rate formats.

Investment & mix-driven margin pressure

Management’s planned higher CapEx (~$190M) and elevated AI and operating investments will compress adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Coupled with a structural mix shift into lower take-rate formats (display/CTV/off‑site), these forces reduce near-term margin sustainability and delay the cash-flow upside from new product initiatives.

Criteo SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Criteo S.A., a technology company, provides marketing and monetization services on the open Internet in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company's Criteo Shopper Graph, which derives clients' proprietary commerce data, such as transaction activity on their digital properties. Its Criteo AI Engine solutions include lookalike finder, recommendation, and predictive bidding algorithms; bidding engine that executes campaigns based on certain objectives set by its clients; dynamic creative optimization+, which assembles customized creative advertising content by optimizing each individual creative component in the advertisement; software systems and processes, which enable data synchronization, storage, and analysis of distributed computing infrastructure in various geographies; and experimentation platform, an offline/online testing platform to enhance the capabilities and effectiveness of prediction models. The company also provides Criteo Marketing Solutions that allow commerce companies to address various marketing goals by engaging their consumers with personalized ads across the web, mobile, and offline store environments; and Criteo Retail Media solutions, which allows retailers to generate advertising revenues from consumer brands, and/or to drive sales for themselves, by monetizing their data and audiences through personalized ads, either on their own digital property or on the open Internet. In addition, it offers real-time access to advertising inventory through its publisher partners; consulting services to companies in distance sales; and business intelligence and analytics services. It serves companies in digital retail, travel, and classifieds industries. Criteo S.A. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Criteo generates revenue primarily through its performance-based advertising model, where clients pay for ads based on the outcomes they achieve, such as clicks or conversions. Key revenue streams include the sale of advertising inventory across various digital channels, including desktop, mobile, and social media platforms. Criteo also earns revenue from its data-driven marketing solutions, which offer insights and analytics to help clients optimize their advertising campaigns. The company has significant partnerships with various retailers, e-commerce platforms, and publishers, allowing it to access a wide array of inventory and consumer data, enhancing its advertising effectiveness. Additionally, Criteo's innovative use of machine learning and AI in targeting and personalization contributes to its competitive edge and revenue growth.

Criteo SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and cash generation have strengthened (higher gross/EBIT margins and solid free cash flow), supported by a conservative balance sheet with low leverage. The main offset is weak top-line momentum (flat-to-declining revenue and a sharp TTM drop), which raises uncertainty about the durability of the rebound.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved meaningfully versus prior years: gross margin rose from ~39% (2022) to ~54% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and net margin improved from near-breakeven (2022) to ~7.4% in TTM. Operating profit also strengthened (EBIT margin ~6.8% in TTM vs ~2.4% in 2022). The key weakness is growth: revenue has been flat to down for several years and is reported down sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), which creates uncertainty around the durability of the margin rebound.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively financed, with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.10–0.12 across periods) and a solid equity base (~$1.15B in TTM). Returns have improved as profitability recovered (return on equity ~12.9% in TTM vs ~0.9% in 2022). A watch item is that total assets have trended down from 2023 to TTM, which may reflect business contraction or balance sheet optimization, but leverage remains very manageable.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow increased to ~$311M in TTM and free cash flow to ~$236M, with strong TTM free-cash-flow growth versus 2024. Cash conversion is decent but not perfect—free cash flow runs at ~76% of net income in TTM (and ~59–75% historically). The main weakness is variability in free cash flow growth year-to-year (including a decline in 2023), suggesting cash generation can be somewhat cyclical.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.94B	1.93B	1.95B	2.02B	2.25B
Gross Profit	1.05B	982.97M	863.04M	795.20M	781.94M
EBITDA	333.45M	245.84M	154.60M	199.05M	247.02M
Net Income	144.57M	111.57M	53.26M	8.95M	134.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.20B	2.27B	2.43B	2.35B	1.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	365.28M	316.94M	342.31M	398.30M	565.83M
Total Debt	149.72M	107.02M	118.45M	108.83M	128.96M
Total Liabilities	1.02B	1.19B	1.32B	1.27B	785.27M
Stockholders Equity	1.15B	1.05B	1.08B	1.05B	1.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	208.50M	180.05M	131.75M	171.19M	165.93M
Operating Cash Flow	311.24M	257.70M	224.25M	255.99M	220.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-101.13M	-97.90M	-108.71M	-166.12M	-76.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-151.48M	-270.50M	-147.25M	-113.04M	-80.12M

Criteo SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 18.28
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRTO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.13, below the 50-day MA of 19.38, and below the 200-day MA of 22.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CRTO.

Criteo SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRTO	67 Neutral	$935.06M	6.90	13.16%	―	0.32%	69.78%
MGNI	67 Neutral	$1.96B	14.46	17.11%	―	6.27%	226.16%
ZD	62 Neutral	$1.05B	25.31	2.66%	―	5.70%	97.88%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
ADV	49 Neutral	$180.88M	-0.72	-29.47%	―	-7.12%	-7.75%
VSME	31 Underperform	$3.27M	-0.79	-194.72%	―	-11.51%	74.52%

Criteo SA Corporate Events

Criteo Shareholders Approve Redomiciliation to Luxembourg

On February 27, 2026, Criteo shareholders overwhelmingly approved a cross-border conversion to shift the company’s legal domicile from France to Luxembourg, while maintaining corporate continuity and appointing Deloitte Audit as statutory auditor. Investors also backed new Luxembourg articles of association that authorize the board to issue shares from an additional 10% authorized capital, limit or withdraw pre-emptive rights, repurchase up to 11 million shares and cancel treasury stock, and empowered directors to complete the notarial steps for the redomiciliation.

Criteo’s board expects the redomiciliation and replacement of its American Depositary Shares with directly listed ordinary shares on Nasdaq in the third quarter of 2026, subject to customary conditions. The company argues the move will increase strategic and capital-management flexibility, reduce ADS-related costs and complexities, and potentially improve index eligibility and stock liquidity, broadening its shareholder base over the long term.

The most recent analyst rating on (CRTO) stock is a Hold with a $20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Criteo SA stock, see the CRTO Stock Forecast page.

Criteo Wins Support for Redomiciliation and Nasdaq Listing

On February 13, 2026, Criteo S.A. announced that proxy advisory firms Glass Lewis and ISS have recommended shareholders vote in favor of its planned redomiciliation from France to Luxembourg and the replacement of its American Depositary Shares with ordinary shares directly listed on Nasdaq. A shareholder meeting to approve the cross-border conversion and related proposals is scheduled for February 27, 2026, with completion targeted for the third quarter of 2026, a move the board expects will expand access to U.S. index and passive capital, increase capital management flexibility, and improve liquidity by removing the costs and complexity of the ADS structure.

The planned shift to a Luxembourg domicile and direct ordinary share listing is designed to better align Criteo with major U.S. capital markets practices and potentially broaden its investor base. If approved, the restructuring could strengthen the company’s capital allocation options, including share repurchases and treasury share management, and enhance its competitive positioning among global ad-tech peers by making its stock more accessible and attractive to both passive and active institutional investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (CRTO) stock is a Hold with a $20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Criteo SA stock, see the CRTO Stock Forecast page.

Criteo Plans Redomiciliation to Luxembourg and Nasdaq Listing

On January 7, 2026, Criteo S.A. announced that its board of directors, following a favorable opinion from the company’s works council, has approved the planned transfer of its legal domicile from France to Luxembourg via a cross-border conversion and the replacement of its American Depositary Shares structure with ordinary shares to be directly listed on Nasdaq. The company will convene a general shareholders’ meeting in Paris on February 27, 2026 to seek shareholder approval for the redomiciliation and related proposals, with record dates set for ordinary shareholders and ADS holders, and it continues to target completion of the conversion in the third quarter of 2026, positioning the group to streamline its corporate structure, enhance capital management flexibility and better align its capital markets presence with its long-term strategy, while maintaining its operational commitment to France and leaving open the option of a subsequent move of its legal domicile from Luxembourg to the United States.

The most recent analyst rating on (CRTO) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Criteo SA stock, see the CRTO Stock Forecast page.