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Stagwell (STGW)
NASDAQ:STGW
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Stagwell (STGW) AI Stock Analysis

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STGW

Stagwell

(NASDAQ:STGW)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(2.61% Upside)
Stagwell's overall stock score reflects a company with strong strategic initiatives and positive earnings call sentiment, offset by financial challenges and high valuation. The earnings call was the most significant positive factor, highlighting growth and strategic partnerships. However, financial performance and valuation concerns weigh down the score, indicating a need for improved profitability and leverage management.
Positive Factors
Strategic Partnership
The partnership with Palantir positions Stagwell to leverage AI technology, enhancing its service offerings and potentially driving significant new revenue streams.
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial health and competitive positioning.
Marketing Cloud Expansion
Significant growth in the Marketing Cloud segment underscores Stagwell's successful digital transformation and ability to capitalize on technology-driven opportunities.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage poses a risk to financial stability, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns.
Profitability Challenges
Negative profit margins indicate difficulties in operational efficiency and cost management, which could hinder long-term profitability and shareholder returns.
Cash Flow Strain
Declining free cash flow growth suggests potential liquidity issues, impacting the company's ability to fund operations and invest in strategic initiatives.

Stagwell (STGW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Stagwell Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionStagwell Inc. is a leading digital-first marketing and communications company that operates at the intersection of data, technology, and creativity. Founded in 2015, Stagwell focuses on providing innovative solutions across various sectors, including advertising, public relations, and digital marketing. The company leverages its deep expertise in analytics and insights to help brands navigate the evolving digital landscape, delivering services such as media buying, brand strategy, and performance marketing.
How the Company Makes MoneyStagwell generates revenue primarily through its diversified services in marketing and communications. Key revenue streams include fees for advertising and media services, public relations services, and digital marketing solutions. The company operates through a portfolio of agencies and brands, allowing it to serve a wide range of clients, from large enterprises to smaller businesses. Stagwell also benefits from strategic partnerships that enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings. Additionally, the company capitalizes on the growing demand for digital transformation, utilizing data analytics to optimize marketing campaigns and improve ROI for its clients.

Stagwell Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong revenue and EBITDA growth, record net new business, and successful digital transformation efforts. The new partnership with Palantir and the surge in The Marketing Cloud revenue demonstrate a strong strategic pivot towards technology. However, the communications segment faced challenges due to reduced advocacy work and broader industry headwinds. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment is positive, supported by cost savings initiatives, share repurchases, and strong international performance.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Overall revenue reached $743 million and net revenue was $615 million, reflecting 12% and 10% increases, respectively. Ex advocacy EBITDA jumped 23% year-over-year to $103 million, achieving the highest margin in two years at 18%.
Record Net New Business
The LTM net new business increased to a record $472 million, with top client relationships averaging $28 million, indicating significant expansion.
Digital Transformation and Marketing Services Growth
Marketing Services total net revenue grew 9%, and digital transformation increased by 12%. Organic growth was strong, with Marketing Services growing 6.5% organically overall and 9% in the U.S. market.
New Partnership with Palantir
Announced a partnership with Palantir to build a groundbreaking AI-based audience platform, expected to generate hundreds of millions in new revenue.
The Marketing Cloud Revenue Surge
The Marketing Cloud segment saw net revenue growth of 138%, with a significant improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin from negative 30% to negative 4% year-over-year.
Strong International Performance
International total net revenue grew 25.9%, led by EMEA with a 39.6% increase.
Cost Savings and Share Repurchase
On track to deliver $80 million to $100 million in annualized savings by 2026, with $27 million already actioned. Repurchased $90 million worth of shares, reducing the share count by 4%.
Negative Updates
Communications Segment Weakness
Communications generated $97 million in net revenue, with softness in PR reflecting broader industry headwinds due to elongated pitch cycles and slower client decisions.
Reduced Advocacy Work Impact
Significant reduction in advocacy-related work affected the communications sector, impacting overall growth.
Increased CapEx
Year-to-date CapEx totaled $72 million, including investments in technology development, which shifted focus from acquisitions.
Company Guidance
During Stagwell's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Webcast, the company reiterated its guidance for the year, projecting approximately 8% total net revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA between $410 million and $460 million, adjusted EPS ranging from $0.75 to $0.88, and a free cash flow conversion rate of 45%. The call highlighted several key metrics: their revenue for the quarter was $743 million, with a net revenue of $615 million, reflecting a 12% and 10% increase, respectively, over the previous year, excluding advocacy. Ex-advocacy EBITDA rose 23% year-over-year to $103 million, achieving an ex-advocacy margin of 18%, the highest in two years. Adjusted EPS increased by 9% to $0.24 compared to the third quarter of the previous year, and year-to-date cash flow from operations rose by $100 million. The Marketing Cloud segment reported a significant net revenue growth of 138%, led by 57% organic growth in the Harris insights suite of research products. Stagwell's strategic focus is on adopting AI technology, with a significant pivot from M&A to technology development, highlighted by a new partnership with Palantir to build an AI-enabled marketing platform.

Stagwell Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Stagwell's financial statements reflect moderate revenue growth but face profitability and leverage challenges. The income statement shows a positive revenue trend, but profitability needs improvement. The balance sheet indicates high leverage, posing risks if not managed carefully. Cash flow is stable but shows signs of strain, requiring attention to sustain growth.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Stagwell's income statement shows moderate growth and profitability. The TTM revenue growth rate is positive at 1.11%, indicating a slight upward trend. However, the net profit margin is negative, suggesting challenges in converting revenue into profit. The gross profit margin is stable at around 35.95%, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are reasonable, reflecting operational efficiency. Overall, the company demonstrates growth potential but faces profitability challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.34 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage. This poses a risk if revenue growth does not keep pace with debt obligations. The return on equity is negative, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. However, the equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure. The company needs to manage its leverage to improve financial stability.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth at -11.97% in the TTM, indicating potential liquidity issues. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting that operational activities are generating cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.00, indicating efficient cash conversion. Overall, cash flow management is adequate but requires attention to sustain growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.89B2.84B2.53B2.69B1.47B888.03M
Gross Profit1.05B998.24M906.00M1.01B562.51M316.44M
EBITDA360.98M356.81M401.20M360.29M227.94M124.59M
Net Income19.68M2.26M134.00K19.92M21.04M56.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.26B3.91B3.77B4.00B4.06B1.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments132.24M131.34M119.74M220.59M184.01M92.46M
Total Debt1.81B1.66B1.49B1.56B1.61B271.20M
Total Liabilities3.48B3.12B2.93B3.03B3.13B614.71M
Stockholders Equity770.48M331.73M356.69M498.65M370.75M358.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow202.31M88.85M38.59M312.15M178.23M123.79M
Operating Cash Flow242.80M142.86M81.01M347.59M200.86M138.08M
Investing Cash Flow-176.75M-162.47M155.95M-116.28M163.95M-29.02M
Financing Cash Flow-77.97M36.94M-339.86M-186.74M-273.41M-80.14M

Stagwell Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.36
Price Trends
50DMA
5.17
Positive
100DMA
5.27
Positive
200DMA
5.33
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.08
Negative
RSI
55.65
Neutral
STOCH
76.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STGW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.07, above the 50-day MA of 5.17, and above the 200-day MA of 5.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STGW.

Stagwell Risk Analysis

Stagwell disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stagwell reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Stagwell Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$1.73B36.824.48%15.51%39.60%
75
Outperform
$22.77B10.5731.17%3.91%4.13%-7.84%
74
Outperform
$1.04B6.6815.37%0.32%69.78%
65
Neutral
$1.35B69.883.80%6.76%1841.46%
64
Neutral
$4.34B8.7911.24%10.06%-1.89%90.72%
63
Neutral
$9.08B17.0514.79%5.37%-5.96%-30.61%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
STGW
Stagwell
5.36
-2.74
-33.83%
IPG
Interpublic Group of Companies
24.57
-4.42
-15.25%
OMC
Omnicom Group
71.62
-29.78
-29.37%
WPP
WPP
20.07
-31.38
-60.99%
CRTO
Criteo SA
19.88
-20.94
-51.30%
IAS
Integral Ad Science
10.28
-1.26
-10.92%

Stagwell Corporate Events

Stagwell Inc. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Nov 7, 2025

Stagwell Inc. is a marketing transformation company that connects creativity with technology to drive business results for clients worldwide. The company operates in the marketing and advertising sector, with a focus on digital transformation and innovative solutions.

Stagwell Inc. Reports Strong Growth and Strategic Shifts
Nov 7, 2025

Stagwell Inc.’s latest earnings call painted a predominantly positive picture, with strong revenue and EBITDA growth, record net new business, and successful strides in digital transformation. The company’s strategic pivot towards technology, highlighted by a new partnership with Palantir and a surge in The Marketing Cloud revenue, underscores its forward-thinking approach. Despite challenges in the communications segment due to reduced advocacy work and broader industry headwinds, the overall sentiment remains optimistic, bolstered by cost-saving initiatives, share repurchases, and robust international performance.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Stagwell Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

Stagwell Inc. reported a 4% year-over-year revenue growth and a 6% increase in net revenue for the third quarter of 2025, with notable growth in digital transformation and marketing services. The company achieved a net income of $25 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $115 million, reflecting strong financial performance despite a cyclical advocacy pullback. Stagwell’s partnership with Palantir highlights its leadership in AI marketing applications, and the company is focused on cost efficiency and labor management, resulting in a 19% adjusted EBITDA margin. The financial outlook for 2025 includes a projected total net revenue growth of approximately 8% and an adjusted EBITDA between $410 million and $460 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (STGW) stock is a Buy with a $6.36 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stagwell stock, see the STGW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Stagwell Restructures, Chief Accounting Officer Departs
Neutral
Sep 12, 2025

Stagwell Inc. announced the departure of its Chief Accounting Officer, Vincenzo DiMaggio, effective September 19, 2025, as part of a restructuring that eliminates the stand-alone role. The company has entered into a severance agreement with DiMaggio, which includes severance payments and vesting of certain equity awards. Frank Lanuto, Executive Vice President, Finance, will assume the role of principal accounting officer, ensuring continuity in the company’s financial operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (STGW) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stagwell stock, see the STGW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 22, 2025