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Roku (ROKU)
NASDAQ:ROKU

Roku (ROKU) AI Stock Analysis

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Roku

(NASDAQ:ROKU)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$76.00
▲( 10.13% Upside)
Roku's overall stock score is bolstered by strong revenue growth and strategic earnings call highlights, underscoring its potential for future profitability. However, persistent net losses and valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio temper the outlook. Technical indicators suggest a cautiously optimistic market sentiment.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Impact
The announcement of the Frndly TV acquisition is expected to contribute approximately 200 basis points to revenue.
Financial Performance
Roku reported solid 1Q results, with revenues driven by healthy growth in platform revenue and devices, which were both ahead of forecasts.
Free Cash Flow
Roku is projected to achieve a positive free cash flow exceeding $200 million.
Negative Factors
Advertising Revenue
There is a risk to sustaining current Platform segment advertising revenue growth over time due to an increasingly competitive CTV industry.
Economic Risks
There is potential downside risk if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.

Roku (ROKU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Roku Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRoku, Inc. is a leading streaming platform in the United States, specializing in the provision of streaming services and devices. The company operates within the technology and entertainment sectors, offering a variety of products, including streaming players and TV-related audio devices. Roku's platform allows users to access a wide range of content, including movies, TV shows, live news, sports, and more, by connecting directly to streaming services over the internet.
How the Company Makes MoneyRoku primarily generates revenue through three key streams: platform revenue, player revenue, and advertising. Platform revenue is derived from licensing fees paid by content providers, subscription and transaction fees from premium content, and advertising sales on the Roku platform. Player revenue comes from the sale of Roku streaming devices, including streaming players and Roku TVs. Advertising, a significant component of platform revenue, includes revenue from video advertisements, audience development promotions, and digital advertising via the Roku Channel and other streaming services. Partnerships with content providers, advertisers, and smart TV manufacturers further contribute to Roku's earnings, enabling the company to expand its user base and content offerings.

Roku Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Active Accounts
Active Accounts
Measures the number of user accounts actively engaging with Roku's platform, reflecting user base growth, platform reach, and potential for monetization.
Chart InsightsRoku's active accounts have shown consistent growth, reaching 89.8 million by the end of 2024. This upward trend is supported by strong platform revenue growth and successful international expansion, as highlighted in the latest earnings call. Management's focus on advertising strategies and leveraging Roku's home screen for monetization are key drivers. Despite some concerns over device margin pressures and potential impacts from Walmart's acquisition of VIZIO, the company remains optimistic about maintaining momentum, aiming to reach 100 million streaming households globally in the next 12 to 18 months.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Roku Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Roku exhibits strong revenue growth and cash flow improvements, positioning it well in the entertainment industry. However, persistent net losses and negative profit margins highlight ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. The company's balance sheet remains strong, with low leverage and a solid equity base, but inefficiencies in capital utilization persist.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Roku's revenue has shown consistent growth, increasing from $1.78 billion in 2020 to $4.25 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 43.21% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -24.92%, primarily due to continuous operating losses. Despite improvements, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are still negative, indicating challenges in achieving operational profitability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Roku maintains a solid equity position with an equity ratio of 60.42% in TTM 2025, showcasing a stable capital structure. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.20, reflecting a conservative approach to leveraging. Despite this, the company has struggled to generate positive returns, as indicated by the negative ROE of -4.20%, suggesting inefficiencies in utilizing equity capital for profit generation.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Roku has demonstrated strong free cash flow growth, with a significant increase in free cash flow from -$149.9 million in 2022 to $303.77 million in TTM 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, indicating effective cash management. The positive shift in free cash flow signals improved operational efficiency and financial health, although ongoing net losses remain a concern.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
4.25B4.11B3.48B3.13B2.76B1.78B
Gross Profit
1.84B1.81B1.52B1.44B1.41B808.22M
EBIT
-193.18M-218.17M-792.38M-530.89M235.10M-15.02M
EBITDA
30.36M196.91M-570.67M-382.96M313.21M49.93M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-105.96M-129.39M-709.56M-498.00M242.38M-17.51M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.06B2.16B2.03B1.96B2.15B1.09B
Total Assets
4.15B4.30B4.26B4.41B4.08B2.27B
Total Debt
568.63M591.93M654.27M664.64M484.59M402.68M
Net Debt
-1.49B-1.57B-1.37B-1.30B-1.66B-690.14M
Total Liabilities
1.80B1.81B1.94B1.77B1.32B942.53M
Stockholders Equity
2.36B2.49B2.33B2.65B2.77B1.33B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
303.77M212.98M173.24M-149.90M188.04M65.81M
Operating Cash Flow
310.09M218.04M255.86M11.79M228.08M148.19M
Investing Cash Flow
-33.32M-25.06M-92.62M-201.70M-176.82M-81.32M
Financing Cash Flow
-111.33M-89.20M-61.24M8.36M1.00B509.05M

Roku Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price69.01
Price Trends
50DMA
66.61
Positive
100DMA
73.92
Negative
200DMA
73.19
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
1.35
Negative
RSI
53.81
Neutral
STOCH
57.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ROKU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 69.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.07, above the 50-day MA of 66.61, and below the 200-day MA of 73.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ROKU.

Roku Risk Analysis

Roku disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Roku reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Our credit facility provides our lenders with a first-priority lien against substantially all of our assets and contains financial covenants and other restrictions on our actions that may limit our operational flexibility or otherwise adversely affect our financial condition. Q4, 2024
2.
We expect continued competition in TV streaming, which could result in pricing pressure, lower revenue and gross profit, declines in our key performance metrics, or the failure of Roku streaming devices, our streaming platform, or our other products to gain or maintain broad market acceptance. Q4, 2024
3.
Our competitors offer content and other advertising mediums that may be more attractive to advertisers than our streaming platform. Q4, 2024

Roku Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$23.66B13.6916.89%0.98%15.70%26.73%
DIDIS
78
Outperform
$197.25B22.418.75%0.86%5.33%431.28%
75
Outperform
$504.47B56.0140.84%14.11%47.22%
70
Outperform
$10.12B-4.34%17.30%81.72%
WMWMG
64
Neutral
$13.67B30.4789.20%2.71%-0.91%-14.87%
61
Neutral
$14.08B5.95-4.18%3.68%2.79%-36.29%
WBWBD
56
Neutral
$22.27B-27.69%-5.58%-254.85%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ROKU
Roku
69.01
12.56
22.25%
DIS
Walt Disney
109.72
8.20
8.08%
NFLX
Netflix
1,185.39
536.39
82.65%
FOXA
Fox
55.04
21.92
66.18%
WMG
Warner Music Group
26.22
-2.96
-10.14%
WBD
Warner Bros
9.00
1.13
14.36%

Roku Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.59%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Roku's earnings call highlighted significant growth in Platform and advertising revenue, bolstered by strategic partnerships and acquisitions like Frndly. However, challenges such as macroeconomic uncertainties affecting advertising commitments and tariff concerns impacting device operations were also noted. Despite these challenges, the reiteration of full-year guidance and strong growth in key areas indicate a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Reaffirmed Full-Year Guidance
Roku reaffirmed its Platform revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook for the full year 2025, projecting $3.950 billion in Platform revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $350 million.
Strong Platform Revenue Growth
Platform revenue grew faster than the overall OTT ad market, with significant growth in ad revenue driven by programmatic advertising and deeper DSP integrations.
Roku Channel Growth
The Roku Channel became the number two app on the Roku platform in the U.S., with global engagement growing 84% year-over-year.
Acquisition of Frndly
Roku announced the acquisition of Frndly, a skinny bundle subscription service, expected to be adjusted EBITDA margin accretive in its first full year.
Focus on First-Party Data
Roku emphasized the value of its 100% authenticated first-party data, highlighting its role in proving performance and enhancing advertisers' ROI.
Negative Updates
Impact of Macro Uncertainties
Advertisers are shifting from longer-term guaranteed commitments to shorter-term non-guaranteed campaigns due to macroeconomic uncertainties, impacting revenue predictability.
Device Revenue Volatility
Device revenue is experiencing flattening growth, attributed to variability in first-party TV sales, though Roku emphasizes household growth over revenue.
Tariff Concerns
Ongoing tariff concerns are affecting device manufacturing and pricing, although Roku is attempting to mitigate this through diversified manufacturing and pricing strategies.
Company Guidance
During the Roku First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reiterated its guidance for the full year, forecasting Platform revenue to reach $3.950 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $350 million, despite macroeconomic uncertainties. The company highlighted several positive trends, including the ongoing shift from linear to streaming and the increasing preference of advertisers for programmatic over direct insertion orders, which have bolstered confidence in achieving these targets. Furthermore, Roku emphasized its diversified revenue streams and robust ad business, noting that ad revenue outpaced the overall OTT ad market. The company also mentioned its strategic focus on enhancing the Roku Experience and growing subscriptions, including its recent acquisition of Frndly, which is expected to be EBITDA accretive in its first year. Additionally, Roku outlined its efforts to leverage its first-party data to enhance advertiser ROI, contributing to its optimistic outlook for sustained growth and achieving positive operating income by 2026.

Roku Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Roku Announces Resignation of Senior VP Louise Pentland
Neutral
May 7, 2025

On May 1, 2025, Roku announced that Louise Pentland, their Senior Vice President and General Counsel, will resign effective May 16, 2025, to pursue another opportunity. Her resignation is not due to any disagreements with the company or its board, and Roku plans to conduct an executive search for her successor.

Executive/Board Changes
Roku Director Ravi Ahuja Resigns Amid Sony Commitments
Neutral
Mar 28, 2025

On March 25, 2025, Ravi Ahuja informed Roku’s Board of Directors of his decision to resign as a director, effective June 11, 2025, due to his commitments as President and CEO of Sony Pictures Entertainment. His departure is not due to any disagreements with Roku, and the board will reduce its size from nine to eight members following his resignation.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.