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Netflix (NFLX)
NASDAQ:NFLX

Netflix (NFLX) AI Stock Analysis

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NFLX

Netflix

(NASDAQ:NFLX)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$108.00
▲(14.42% Upside)
Netflix's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive corporate events, including strategic acquisitions and stock splits. However, bearish technical indicators and high valuation metrics temper the score. The positive earnings call further supports Netflix's growth prospects, despite some challenges.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
Netflix's strong revenue growth is driven by increased viewership and engagement, indicating a robust market position and potential for sustained growth.
Strategic Acquisition
The acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery enhances Netflix's content offerings and strengthens its competitive position in the entertainment industry.
Ad Sales Growth
Record ad sales growth demonstrates Netflix's successful expansion into advertising, providing a new revenue stream and diversifying its business model.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Challenges
The acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery may face regulatory hurdles, potentially delaying integration and impacting strategic goals.
Debt Levels
Increased debt from the acquisition could strain Netflix's balance sheet, affecting financial flexibility and long-term stability.
Brazilian Tax Expense
Unexpected tax expenses can impact profitability and highlight potential risks in international operations, affecting future earnings.

Netflix (NFLX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Netflix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNetflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services in the United States. The company has approximately 222 million paid members in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyNetflix generates revenue primarily through its subscription-based model, where users pay a monthly fee to access a vast library of content. The company offers several subscription tiers, each varying in price based on features such as the number of screens that can stream simultaneously and the availability of high-definition content. Additionally, Netflix invests significantly in producing original content, which attracts and retains subscribers, thereby driving revenue growth. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with smart TV manufacturers, mobile carriers, and other platforms that increase its visibility and subscriber base. While advertising revenue has been introduced in recent years through ad-supported subscription tiers, the core of Netflix's revenue remains its subscription fees.

Netflix Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Paid Memberships
Total Paid Memberships
Shows the total number of paying subscribers, indicating Netflix's market reach, revenue potential, and overall popularity among consumers.
Chart InsightsNetflix's total paid memberships have shown robust growth, particularly accelerating in 2024, with a notable increase of over 19 million subscribers. This growth is attributed to a diverse content slate and strategic advertising initiatives, as highlighted in the latest earnings call. The introduction of an ad-supported plan has significantly boosted sign-ups, contributing to a doubling of ad revenue. Despite FX volatility and increased content spending, Netflix's strategic investments in ads and gaming are expected to sustain momentum and enhance operating margins in 2025.
Data provided by:The Fly

Netflix Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presents a predominantly positive outlook for Netflix, with significant achievements in ad sales growth, viewership, and content success. The unexpected Brazilian tax expense is noted but framed as a unique issue unlikely to impact future results.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Ad Sales Growth
Netflix achieved its best ad sales quarter ever in Q3 2025, with ad revenue on track to more than double this year.
Highest Quarterly View Share
Netflix achieved its highest quarterly view share ever in the US at 8.6% and in the UK at 9.4% in Q3 2025.
K-Pop Demon Hunters Success
K-Pop Demon Hunters became Netflix's most popular film ever, leading to a partnership with Mattel and Hasbro as global co-master toy licensees.
Engagement and Programming Expansion
Total view hours grew faster in Q3 2025 than in the first half of the year, with a diverse slate of upcoming content in Q4 2025 and 2026.
Exciting Live Event Success
The Canelo Crawford fight was the most viewed men's championship fight of the century, with over 41 million live plus one viewers.
Negative Updates
Brazilian Tax Matter Impact
A Brazilian tax ruling resulted in an unexpected expense recorded in Q3 2025, impacting the operating income that would have otherwise exceeded forecasts.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2025 earnings call, Netflix shared several positive metrics and insights into their business outlook. In Q3, Netflix achieved record shares of TV time in the US and UK, with engagement remaining robust. They reported their best ad sales quarter ever, putting them on track to more than double ad revenue for the year. Additionally, Netflix highlighted their successful live event, the Canelo Crawford fight, which was the most viewed men's championship fight this century, and their popular film, K-Pop Demon Hunters, the company's most successful film to date. Despite a Brazilian tax expense affecting operating income, Netflix maintained a positive outlook, noting plans to sustain revenue growth, expand margins, and increase free cash flow in 2026. They also focused on expanding their advertising business, emphasizing improvements in ad tech capabilities and partnerships. Netflix's engagement metrics showed growth in total view hours, achieving the highest quarterly view share in the US at 8.6% and in the UK at 9.4%. These achievements, alongside strategic initiatives in advertising, gaming, and content, underscore Netflix's confidence in continued profitable growth.

Netflix Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Netflix exhibits a robust financial profile with strong revenue growth, high profitability margins, and efficient cash flow management. The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with manageable leverage and high returns on equity. While Netflix's financials are strong, continued focus on reducing debt and sustaining cash flow growth will further enhance its financial stability and growth prospects.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Netflix has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 4.04% increase in TTM, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 48.09% and 24.05%, respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also impressive at 29.69% and 66.91%, indicating efficient operational management. The consistent revenue growth trajectory and high profitability margins highlight Netflix's strong market position and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.62, showing a manageable level of leverage. The return on equity is notably high at 41.86%, indicating effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 47.26%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets. Overall, Netflix maintains a stable financial position with strong returns, though there is room for improvement in reducing debt levels.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Netflix's cash flow performance is strong, with a 5.48% growth in free cash flow, indicating effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.98, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.94, both reflecting efficient conversion of income into cash. The positive cash flow growth and high conversion ratios underscore Netflix's ability to generate and manage cash effectively.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue43.38B39.00B33.72B31.62B29.70B25.00B
Gross Profit20.86B17.96B14.01B12.45B12.37B9.72B
EBITDA28.97B26.31B21.51B20.33B19.04B15.51B
Net Income10.43B8.71B5.41B4.49B5.12B2.76B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets54.93B53.63B48.73B48.59B44.58B39.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.32B9.58B7.14B6.06B6.03B8.21B
Total Debt14.46B17.99B16.97B16.93B18.12B18.51B
Total Liabilities28.98B28.89B28.14B27.82B28.74B28.22B
Stockholders Equity25.95B24.74B20.59B20.78B15.85B11.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow8.97B6.92B6.93B1.62B-131.97M1.93B
Operating Cash Flow9.57B7.36B7.27B2.03B392.61M2.43B
Investing Cash Flow1.14B-2.18B541.75M-2.08B-1.34B-505.35M
Financing Cash Flow-8.95B-4.07B-5.95B-664.25M-1.15B1.24B

Netflix Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price94.39
Price Trends
50DMA
108.29
Negative
100DMA
114.58
Negative
200DMA
113.28
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-4.49
Positive
RSI
33.38
Neutral
STOCH
27.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFLX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 94.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.12, below the 50-day MA of 108.29, and below the 200-day MA of 113.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NFLX.

Netflix Risk Analysis

Netflix disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Netflix reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Netflix Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$29.94B16.1517.33%0.77%14.91%9.30%
75
Outperform
$198.60B16.2411.78%1.12%3.61%152.34%
73
Outperform
$431.31B39.4342.86%15.49%35.54%
68
Neutral
$68.83B148.031.36%-4.29%
65
Neutral
$16.08B-549.60-1.09%16.61%83.98%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
53
Neutral
$14.40B-50.02-1.90%1.53%-0.48%97.09%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NFLX
Netflix
94.39
3.25
3.57%
PSKY
Paramount Skydance
13.05
2.85
27.94%
DIS
Walt Disney
111.24
1.06
0.96%
ROKU
Roku
108.82
30.02
38.10%
FOXA
Fox
73.62
24.63
50.28%
WBD
Warner Bros
27.77
17.33
166.00%

Netflix Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Netflix Announces Acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Positive
Dec 5, 2025

On December 4, 2025, Netflix announced an agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) for a total enterprise value of $82.7 billion, following the separation of WBD’s Global Networks division. This strategic acquisition aims to combine Netflix’s streaming capabilities with Warner Bros.’ extensive library and franchises, enhancing Netflix’s content offerings and strengthening its position in the entertainment industry. The transaction, which is expected to close in 12-18 months, will provide more choice and value for consumers, create opportunities for the creative community, and generate significant shareholder value.

Stock SplitRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Netflix Announces Ten-for-One Stock Split Amendment
Neutral
Nov 14, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Netflix announced a ten-for-one forward stock split of its issued common stock. The company filed an amendment on November 14, 2025, to increase the number of authorized shares from 4.99 billion to 49.9 billion, effective immediately. Trading on a split-adjusted basis is set to begin on November 17, 2025, which may impact the company’s stock liquidity and market accessibility for investors.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Netflix Amends Executive Compensation Plans
Neutral
Nov 4, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Netflix‘s Board of Directors approved amendments to the compensatory arrangements for its executive officers, effective January 1, 2026. These changes include modifications to the Executive Officer Severance Plan and adjustments to restricted stock unit and performance-based restricted stock unit awards. The amendments expand the conditions under which executives can receive severance, enhance retirement vesting criteria, and redefine qualifying termination conditions, potentially impacting the company’s executive retention and compensation strategy.

Stock Split
Netflix Announces Ten-for-One Stock Split
Positive
Oct 30, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Netflix announced a ten-for-one forward stock split approved by its Board of Directors. This move aims to make the company’s stock more accessible to employees participating in its stock option program. Shareholders of record as of November 10, 2025, will receive nine additional shares for each share held, with split-adjusted trading commencing on November 17, 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025