Netflix (NFLX)
NASDAQ:NFLX
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Netflix
(NASDAQ:NFLX)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$106.00
▲(8.93% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/24/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (higher margins, improving leverage, and materially stronger free cash flow) and a constructive earnings call with maintained 2026 guidance and accelerating advertising traction. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technical signals and a valuation that appears fair rather than deeply discounted, with no dividend yield support.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Robust free cash flow (~$11.9B TTM) provides durable financial flexibility: funds content investment, AI initiatives, and the $25B buyback authorization while reducing reliance on external financing. Sustained FCF supports reinvestment and capital returns over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Meaningful Absolute Debt
While debt-to-equity has improved, a $14.4B absolute debt stock can limit flexibility if cash flow weakens or rates rise. Servicing and refinancing risks could constrain content spend or buybacks and increase sensitivity to macro volatility over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Robust free cash flow (~$11.9B TTM) provides durable financial flexibility: funds content investment, AI initiatives, and the $25B buyback authorization while reducing reliance on external financing. Sustained FCF supports reinvestment and capital returns over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Netflix (NFLX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$387.65B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)39.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.2
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth18.57%
EPS Growth45.93%
CountryUS
Employees14,000
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.16
Shares Outstanding4,210,798,300
10 Day Avg. Volume44,927,465
30 Day Avg. Volume39,239,385
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.33
Price to Book (P/B)14.90
Price to Sales (P/S)8.78
P/FCF Ratio41.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.38
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.08
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$116.06Price Target Upside19.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering34
EPS Forecast (FY)3.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$51.40B
Netflix Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of interne...
How the Company Makes Money
Netflix primarily makes money from paid memberships to its streaming service. Revenue is generated through recurring subscription fees across multiple plan tiers (with pricing that can vary by country), with members paying monthly for access to Ne...
Netflix Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Paid Memberships
Shows the total number of paying subscribers, indicating Netflix's market reach, revenue potential, and overall popularity among consumers.
Shows the total number of paying subscribers, indicating Netflix's market reach, revenue potential, and overall popularity among consumers.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNetflix Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 16, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and strategic picture: management maintained 2026 guidance (12%–14% revenue growth; 31.5% operating margin), reported record member-quality metrics, strong ad-sales momentum (advertiser base +70% YoY; programmatic >50%), and notable regional wins (WBC success and APAC strength). The principal negatives were timing and expense uncertainty from the Warner Brothers transaction, perception risks from Nielsen methodological changes, limited early acquisition benefits from gaming, and the usual competitive pressures for premium content. Overall, the positives materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Maintained Full-Year Financial Guidance
Company reiterated 2026 guidance: revenue growth of 12%–14% and operating margin of 31.5%. Advertising business expected to roughly double to about $3.0 billion.
Negative Updates
Warner Brothers Deal Costs and M&A Expense Timing
Company walked away from the Warner Brothers transaction. Initial 2026 guidance included ~$275 million of M&A-related costs; some costs tied to the Warner Brothers process were pulled into 2026 (though management said there is no material impact on the operating margin outlook), creating near-term expense timing uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Maintained Full-Year Financial Guidance
Company reiterated 2026 guidance: revenue growth of 12%–14% and operating margin of 31.5%. Advertising business expected to roughly double to about $3.0 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Netflix said it is maintaining its 2026 guidance: full‑year revenue growth of 12–14% and an operating margin of 31.5%, while expecting to roughly double advertising to about $3.0 billion this year; the company finished 2025 with more than 325 million paid members, reports Q1 view hours growing at a rate similar to 2025 and a primary member‑quality metric at an all‑time high, and noted improved retention across all regions. Management described an addressable smart‑TV household opportunity of roughly 800 million (under 45% penetrated), about $670 billion of addressable revenue today (of which Netflix has captured ~7%), and only ~5% of global TV view share. Other datapoints noted: a $275 million M&A‑related cost carried in the year (including Interpositive), the World Baseball Classic drew 31.4 million viewers in Japan, the advertiser base grew >70% year‑over‑year to >4,000 advertisers with programmatic on track to exceed 50% of non‑live ads, an ads entry plan at $8.99 in the U.S., and a games market opportunity of roughly $150 billion (ex‑China/ex‑Russia); management said the Warner‑related timing shifts leave no material impact to the margin guide.Netflix Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
77
Positive
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 46.89B | 45.18B | 39.00B | 33.72B | 31.62B | 29.70B |
| Gross Profit | 22.99B | 21.91B | 17.96B | 14.01B | 12.45B | 12.37B |
| EBITDA | 34.08B | 30.25B | 26.31B | 21.51B | 20.33B | 19.04B |
| Net Income | 13.37B | 10.98B | 8.71B | 5.41B | 4.49B | 5.12B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 61.02B | 55.60B | 53.63B | 48.73B | 48.59B | 44.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.30B | 9.06B | 9.58B | 7.14B | 6.06B | 6.03B |
| Total Debt | 16.74B | 14.46B | 17.99B | 16.97B | 14.35B | 18.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.89B | 28.98B | 28.89B | 28.14B | 27.82B | 28.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 31.13B | 26.62B | 24.74B | 20.59B | 20.78B | 15.85B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.89B | 9.46B | 6.92B | 6.93B | 1.62B | -131.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.65B | 10.15B | 7.36B | 7.27B | 2.03B | 392.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -225.85M | 1.04B | -2.18B | 541.75M | -2.08B | -1.34B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.55B | -10.35B | -4.07B | -5.95B | -664.25M | -1.15B |
Netflix Technical Analysis
Negative
97.31
Price Trends
91.95
Positive
92.52
Positive
105.88
Negative
Market Momentum
3.25
Negative
48.56
Neutral
68.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFLX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 97.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.15, above the 50-day MA of 91.95, and below the 200-day MA of 105.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NFLX.
Netflix Risk Analysis
Netflix disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Netflix reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Risks Related to Our Stock Ownership Q4, 2025
2.
Following certain periods of volatility in the market price of our securities, we became the subject of securities litigation. Q4, 2025
3.
The WBD transaction may not be completed on the currently contemplated timeline or terms, or at all. Q4, 2025
Netflix Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $387.65B | 19.21 | 49.24% | ― | 18.57% | 45.93% | |
73 Outperform | $18.22B | 40.72 | 3.40% | ― | 16.78% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $182.61B | 21.11 | 11.35% | 1.10% | 3.83% | 120.34% | |
68 Neutral | $25.51B | 34.54 | 16.22% | 0.75% | 9.20% | -10.54% | |
62 Neutral | $67.61B | 98.11 | 2.05% | ― | -5.02% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
55 Neutral | $12.33B | -6.45 | -4.36% | 1.48% | -1.10% | 95.27% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
NFLX
Netflix
92.06
-21.35
-18.82%
PSKY
Paramount Skydance
11.09
0.02
0.16%
DIS
Walt Disney
103.08
11.98
13.15%
ROKU
Roku
123.58
63.16
104.53%
FOXA
Fox
63.35
14.56
29.83%
WBD
Warner Bros
26.97
18.60
222.22%
Netflix Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Netflix Boosts Capital Returns With New Buyback Authorization
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
On April 22, 2026, Netflix’s board approved a new $25 billion share repurchase authorization, supplementing its existing December 2024 program, which still had about $6.8 billion available as of March 31, 2026. The buybacks, which have no ex...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Netflix Reports Strong Q1 Growth Amid Leadership Transition
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
On April 10, 2026, Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings notified the company that he will not stand for re-election as a director at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, and he will remain a director and Chairman of the Board until his term expire...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Netflix Receives Termination Fee After WBD Deal Collapse
Negative
Feb 27, 2026
On January 19, 2026, Netflix entered into an amended merger agreement under which it would have acquired a reorganized Warner Bros. Discovery entity holding the company’s Streaming Studios businesses, leaving WBD’s Global Linear Netwo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.