Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)
NASDAQ:RCEL
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Avita Medical
(NASDAQ:RCEL)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-6.25% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/15/26
The score is held back primarily by high-risk fundamentals: continued losses and cash burn alongside negative shareholders’ equity. It is partially offset by constructive earnings-call signals (2026 growth guidance, improving cash use and OpEx discipline, refinancing that reduces covenant risk) and a technically strong uptrend, though momentum indicators look overextended and valuation is constrained by negative earnings.
Positive Factors
High Gross Margins
Sustained >80% gross margins indicate strong unit economics and high per-procedure profitability that provide structural margin cushioning. This durable margin profile supports scalability as utilization normalizes and gives the company room to invest in commercialization without eroding core product economics.
Negative Factors
Negative Shareholders' Equity
Negative shareholders' equity is a material capitalization weakness that constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing or dilution risk. Over a 2–6 month horizon it can limit the company's ability to fund commercialization, pursue partnerships, or withstand setbacks without external capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Gross Margins
Sustained >80% gross margins indicate strong unit economics and high per-procedure profitability that provide structural margin cushioning. This durable margin profile supports scalability as utilization normalizes and gives the company room to invest in commercialization without eroding core product economics.
Read all positive factors
Avita Medical (RCEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$130.19M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)214.37K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.59
Revenue Growth11.45%
EPS Growth26.80%
CountryUS
Employees260
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.38
Shares Outstanding30,776,690
10 Day Avg. Volume288,983
30 Day Avg. Volume214,367
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)-5.77
Price to Sales (P/S)1.34
P/FCF Ratio-3.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.33Price Target Upside31.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$82.41M
Avita Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AVITA Medical Inc. operates as a commercial-stage regenerative tissue company in the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. It offers regenerative products to address unmet medical needs in burn injuries, trauma injuries, chronic wounds...
How the Company Makes Money
Avita Medical primarily makes money by selling the RECELL System and associated single-use consumables used per procedure to hospitals and burn centers. Revenue is generated when healthcare providers purchase the device (capital equipment) and, mo...
Avita Medical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Avita Medical Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed that 2025 was a year of stabilization and execution discipline: the company delivered FY revenue growth (+11%), maintained gross margins above 80%, reduced operating expenses (~9% FY) and improved net cash use over three consecutive quarters, while securing a more flexible credit facility. Management also restored reimbursement clarity across six of seven MACs and advanced clinical enrollment for CoHiliX and PermeDerm, supporting a 2026 revenue outlook of $80–85M (+12%–19%). Offsetting these positives are Q4 revenue softness (Q4 revenue down ~4.3% YoY), meaningful gross margin compression versus the prior year driven by inventory reserves and product mix, continued high operating expenses (Q4 OpEx exceeded Q4 revenue), and one remaining MAC yet to publish rates. Overall, the company appears to have materially reduced execution and covenant risk and positioned itself for gradual, execution-led growth, while still facing near-term margin and profitability headwinds.Positive Updates
Full Year Revenue Growth
Full year 2025 revenue of approximately $71.6 million, representing ~11% growth over 2024 and marking a consecutive year of top-line growth.
Negative Updates
Q4 Revenue Decline Year-over-Year
Q4 2025 revenue was $17.6 million versus $18.4 million in Q4 2024, a decline of roughly 4.3%, indicating the quarter reflected stabilization rather than acceleration.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full Year Revenue Growth
Full year 2025 revenue of approximately $71.6 million, representing ~11% growth over 2024 and marking a consecutive year of top-line growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to full‑year 2026 revenue of $80–$85 million (≈12%–19% growth versus 2025’s ~$71.6M), driven by normalization of ReCell utilization and incremental contributions from CoHiliX and PermeDerm across the ~200 core burn/trauma centers that generate roughly 90% of revenue; Q4/2025 revenue was $17.6M (FY 2025 $71.6M, +11% vs. 2024). Financial discipline underpins the outlook: FY gross margin was 82.1% (vs. 85.8% in 2024) and Q4 margin 81.2% (vs. 87.6% prior‑year), Q4 operating expenses were $24.7M (down 5% YoY; excluding $1.2M one‑time severance expenses, OpEx fell ~10% YoY) and full‑year OpEx declined $10.4M (9%). Cash use improved each quarter (Q2 $10.1M → Q3 $6.2M → Q4 $5.1M), ending Q4 with $18.2M in cash and marketable securities, and the January refinancing added an interest‑only facility with more flexible covenants (initial TTM covenant $68.5M — implying a $15.4M Q1 threshold to avoid breach — and a FY 2026 TTM requirement of $73M well below guidance; minimum cash covenant lowered from $10M to $5M). Finally, reimbursement clarity advanced with six of seven MACs publishing payment rates, supporting the company’s expectation of steady, execution‑led growth.Avita Medical Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 71.61M | 64.25M | 50.14M | 34.42M | 33.02M |
| Gross Profit | 58.82M | 55.16M | 42.36M | 28.38M | 26.92M |
| EBITDA | -39.59M | -55.30M | -33.54M | -26.05M | -24.40M |
| Net Income | -48.59M | -61.84M | -35.38M | -26.66M | -25.14M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 56.39M | 79.71M | 111.64M | 98.26M | 116.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.18M | 35.88M | 89.06M | 79.34M | 85.16M |
| Total Debt | 2.13M | 45.98M | 42.41M | 918.00K | 1.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 73.04M | 75.21M | 62.58M | 13.52M | 11.39M |
| Stockholders Equity | -16.65M | 4.50M | 49.06M | 84.74M | 104.62M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -31.20M | -58.27M | -39.46M | -19.61M | -18.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -31.20M | -48.94M | -38.01M | -19.09M | -18.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 12.45M | 37.36M | 1.61M | -19.33M | -50.21M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 14.94M | 3.51M | 40.37M | 900.00K | 64.06M |
Avita Medical Technical Analysis
Positive
4.80
Price Trends
4.43
Positive
4.06
Positive
4.47
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Negative
61.29
Neutral
64.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RCEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.27, above the 50-day MA of 4.43, and above the 200-day MA of 4.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RCEL.
Avita Medical Risk Analysis
Avita Medical disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avita Medical reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Avita Medical Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
53 Neutral | $130.19M | -1.98 | 476.59% | ― | 11.45% | 26.80% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $166.04M | -12.67 | -7.42% | ― | -25.68% | 80.25% | |
47 Neutral | $105.26M | -2.75 | -68.83% | ― | 19.74% | 1.76% | |
47 Neutral | $182.57M | -1.92 | -591.09% | ― | 8.28% | 23.32% | |
45 Neutral | $65.20M | -4.06 | 197.15% | ― | 9.24% | -6.71% | |
43 Neutral | $136.86M | -217.35 | 239.66% | ― | 35.46% | -71.33% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
RCEL
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.