Avita Medical (RCEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $119.23M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 252.78K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.74
• Revenue Growth: 20.59%
• EPS Growth: 18.61%
• Country: US
• Employees: 260
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 30,493,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 220,372
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 252,779
• PEG Ratio: -0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 73.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.16
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.73
• 1Y Price Target: $8.38
• Price Target Upside: 103.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▲(9.22% Upside)

Avita Medical's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial instability, characterized by significant net losses and negative equity. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio. Although the earnings call showed some operational improvements, the reduced revenue guidance and ongoing financial challenges weigh heavily on the stock's outlook.

Positive Factors

Reimbursement Progress

The confirmation of reimbursement rates by all MACs is a crucial step in ensuring consistent revenue streams and wider adoption of the RECELL System, potentially increasing market penetration and stabilizing revenue in the long term.

European Expansion

The CE Mark approval for RECELL GO in Europe opens new markets for Avita Medical, potentially increasing sales and establishing the product as a standard in wound care across Europe, contributing to long-term growth.

Cost Management

Effective cost management and reduction of operating expenses enhance financial health and profitability, allowing Avita Medical to allocate resources towards growth initiatives and improve margins over time.

Negative Factors

Financial Instability

Negative equity and high leverage indicate potential solvency issues, limiting Avita Medical's financial flexibility and ability to invest in growth, posing risks to long-term stability.

Revenue Decline

The decline in revenue highlights challenges in achieving expected sales growth, which could impact Avita Medical's ability to sustain operations and invest in future development.

Leadership Changes

Frequent leadership changes can lead to strategic shifts and uncertainty, potentially disrupting long-term planning and execution, affecting Avita Medical's ability to maintain consistent growth.

Avita Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Avita Medical (RCEL) is a biotechnology company focused on regenerative medicine, particularly in the field of wound care and skin regeneration. The company specializes in developing innovative products derived from human tissue, primarily its flagship product, the RECELL System, which enables the rapid preparation of a patient’s own skin cells for the treatment of burns, chronic wounds, and other skin defects. Avita Medical operates in the healthcare sector, aiming to improve outcomes for patients while reducing the costs associated with traditional skin grafting methods.

How the Company Makes Money

Avita Medical generates revenue primarily through the sale of its RECELL System and related consumables used in the preparation and application of regenerative skin treatments. The company has established partnerships with healthcare providers and hospitals, facilitating the adoption of its technology in clinical settings. Revenue is also supported by ongoing clinical trials and studies that enhance the credibility of its products, potentially leading to new market opportunities. Additionally, Avita may benefit from reimbursement strategies with insurance companies, allowing patients to access its therapies, which further drives sales.

Avita Medical Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Avita Medical faces significant financial challenges, with strong gross margins overshadowed by substantial net losses and negative equity. The company's high leverage and negative cash flows indicate financial instability, requiring strategic improvements to enhance profitability and financial health.

Income Statement

Avita Medical's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a strong gross profit margin of 84.28% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -68.87% TTM, reflecting significant losses. Revenue growth is modest at 4.50% TTM, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity and a high debt-to-equity ratio of -3.46 TTM, indicating potential solvency issues. The return on equity is alarmingly high at 279.91% TTM due to negative equity, which is a red flag. The equity ratio is also negative, suggesting a precarious financial position.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows negative operating and free cash flows, with a slight improvement in free cash flow growth at -10.02% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.57 TTM, indicating cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.17 TTM suggests some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	74.88M	64.25M	50.14M	34.42M	33.02M	29.23M
Gross Profit	63.11M	55.16M	42.36M	28.38M	26.92M	23.28M
EBITDA	-44.64M	-55.30M	-33.54M	-26.05M	-24.40M	-25.81M
Net Income	-51.57M	-61.84M	-35.38M	-26.66M	-25.14M	-26.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	58.13M	79.71M	111.64M	98.26M	116.02M	125.50M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	15.69M	35.88M	89.06M	79.34M	85.16M	110.75M
Total Debt	44.59M	45.98M	42.41M	918.00K	1.64M	878.00K
Total Liabilities	71.03M	75.21M	62.58M	13.52M	11.39M	9.85M
Stockholders Equity	-12.89M	4.50M	49.06M	84.74M	104.62M	115.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-42.04M	-58.27M	-39.46M	-19.61M	-18.52M	-27.07M
Operating Cash Flow	-35.83M	-48.94M	-38.01M	-19.09M	-18.04M	-25.90M
Investing Cash Flow	27.65M	37.36M	1.61M	-19.33M	-50.21M	-1.17M
Financing Cash Flow	2.95M	3.51M	40.37M	900.00K	64.06M	64.05M

Avita Medical Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RCEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.78, below the 50-day MA of 4.48, and below the 200-day MA of 6.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RCEL.

Avita Medical Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OWLT	61 Neutral	$365.99M	―	―	―	26.83%	-52.47%
RPID	56 Neutral	$183.50M	―	-68.83%	―	16.63%	10.43%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ANIK	49 Neutral	$141.04M	―	-8.73%	―	-31.29%	65.68%
LUCD	44 Neutral	$147.32M	―	-331.24%	―	5.01%	20.76%
RCEL	42 Neutral	$119.23M	―	-1746.27%	―	20.59%	18.61%
LNSR	38 Underperform	$123.63M	―	-422.35%	―	21.02%	-200.88%

Avita Medical Corporate Events

Avita Medical’s Earnings Call: Progress Amid Challenges

Avita Medical Ltd’s recent earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting both progress and challenges. While the company has made significant strides in reimbursement issues and cost management, as well as strategic expansions in Europe, these positive developments were overshadowed by revenue declines and reduced revenue guidance. Despite improvements in operational efficiency and cash management, the financial outlook remains cautious, reflecting ongoing challenges.

AVITA Medical Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

AVITA Medical Ltd is a therapeutic acute wound care company specializing in innovative solutions for wound healing, primarily operating in the healthcare sector with a focus on the RECELL System for burn and trauma wounds.

Avita Medical Amends Credit Agreement with OrbiMed

On November 5, 2025, AVITA Medical agreed to a sixth amendment to its credit agreement with OrbiMed Advisors, adjusting the revenue covenant to $70 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2025. The amendment also waived a ‘going concern’ requirement for the third quarter, with AVITA adding $500,000 to the principal balance as consideration. The company’s Q3 2025 financial results showed a 13% decrease in commercial revenue compared to the previous year, attributed to reimbursement challenges. However, operating expenses decreased by 24%, and net loss improved. AVITA received CE Mark approval for RECELL GO® in Europe, expanding its international presence. The company is focusing on key U.S. centers and expects full-year revenue between $70 and $74 million, down from prior guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (RCEL) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avita Medical stock, see the RCEL Stock Forecast page.

Avita Medical’s New Study on PermeaDerm: Implications for Investors

Study Overview: Avita Medical Ltd is conducting a study titled A Prospective Post-Market Multicenter Randomized Controlled Clinical Study to Investigate Clinical Outcomes and Associated Costs When PermeaDerm is Used as Temporary Dressing for the Management of Surgical Wounds. The study aims to compare the cost and clinical outcomes of two temporary dressings, PermeaDerm and Allograft, in patients requiring skin grafts. The significance lies in optimizing wound care management and reducing associated costs.

Avita Medical’s Cohealyx Study: A Potential Game-Changer in Wound Care

Avita Medical Ltd is conducting a clinical study titled ‘A Prospective Multicenter Single-arm Clinical Study to Investigate Clinical Outcomes When Cohealyx™ is Used for the Management of Full Thickness Wounds Post-surgical Excision.’ The study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Cohealyx Collagen Matrix in treating full thickness wounds that require skin grafts, focusing on the time taken for wound closure.

Avita Medical Appoints Cary Vance as Interim CEO

On October 16, 2025, AVITA Medical announced the departure of CEO James Corbett and the appointment of Cary Vance as Interim CEO. Vance, who has extensive experience in the healthcare industry, will also continue as Chairman of the Board. The company expects third-quarter revenue to be approximately $17 million and is in discussions with OrbiMed to redefine future financial covenants. The Board plans to engage an executive search firm to find a permanent CEO, considering both internal and external candidates, including Vance.

The most recent analyst rating on (RCEL) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avita Medical stock, see the RCEL Stock Forecast page.

Avita Medical Announces $15M Equity Placement Agreement

On August 12, 2025, AVITA Medical, Inc. entered into a placement agreement with MST Financial Services Pty Limited to offer 17,201,886 CHESS Depositary Interests to Australian institutional and professional investors. The placement is expected to raise approximately US$15 million and close on or about August 19, 2025, with the securities being exempt from registration under the Securities Act of 1933.

The most recent analyst rating on (RCEL) stock is a Sell with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avita Medical stock, see the RCEL Stock Forecast page.

Avita Medical’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

Avita Medical Ltd’s recent earnings call painted a mixed picture of the company’s current financial health and future prospects. While there were notable achievements in commercial revenue growth and clinical advancements, these were overshadowed by challenges such as reimbursement delays and a lowered financial forecast. The sentiment was cautiously optimistic, with a focus on strategic partnerships and operational efficiencies to navigate the hurdles ahead.