Avita Medical (RCEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $134.47M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 178.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.59
• Revenue Growth: 20.59%
• EPS Growth: 18.61%
• Country: US
• Employees: 260
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 30,493,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 151,123
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 178,659
• PEG Ratio: -0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 73.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.16
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.36
• 1Y Price Target: $4.50
• Price Target Upside: 2.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▲(2.04% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (heavy losses, cash burn, and negative equity). Technicals also reflect a sustained downtrend. Offsetting these negatives are improving operational execution and reimbursement progress from the earnings call, plus a liquidity-boosting refinancing and leadership strengthening, but not enough yet to outweigh the fundamental risks.

Positive Factors

High Gross Margin

Sustained high gross margins (~83–84%) reflect strong unit economics from device plus recurring consumable kits. This margin profile provides structural profitability potential as volumes scale, enabling the company to absorb SG&A and R&D while moving toward operating leverage if revenue recovers.

Reimbursement Progress

Medicare Administrative Contractor (MAC) confirmations remove a persistent access barrier, improving procedure economics and predictability. Durable reimbursement reduces adoption friction across U.S. burn centers, supporting normalized utilization and a steadier, addressable revenue base over the next several quarters.

Refinancing and Liquidity Boost

A new five-year $60M facility that provided an immediate $50M draw materially extends liquidity runway and reduces near-term refinancing risk. This structural financing supports execution of clinical programs and commercialization initiatives, enabling the company to focus on growth rather than imminent funding needs.

Negative Factors

Negative Stockholders' Equity

Negative equity signals a distressed capital structure and potential solvency constraints, weakening creditor and investor confidence. It can limit strategic flexibility, increase cost of capital, complicate future fundraising, and constrain long-term investment in commercial scale-up without continued external support.

Persistent Cash Burn

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow indicates ongoing cash consumption that requires external financing to sustain operations. This dependence elevates dilution or refinancing risk, limits ability to invest in commercialization, and makes the business sensitive to tightening covenant terms or funding disruptions.

Revenue Decline & Lowered Guidance

Declining revenue and a downward guidance revision driven by reimbursement disruptions reveal demand volatility and slower adoption. This undermines predictability for cash flow and covenant compliance, prolongs the path to operating breakeven, and pressures the company to sustain cost cuts while trying to rebuild durable commercial momentum.

Avita Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AVITA Medical Inc. operates as a commercial-stage regenerative tissue company in the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. It offers regenerative products to address unmet medical needs in burn injuries, trauma injuries, chronic wounds, and dermatological and aesthetics indications, including vitiligo. The company's patented and proprietary platform technology provides treatment solutions derived from the regenerative properties of a patient's own skin. Its lead product is RECELL System, a device that enables healthcare professionals to produce a suspension of Spray-On Skin cells using a small sample of the patient's own skin for use in the treatment of acute thermal burns in patients eighteen years and older. The company has a research collaboration with the University of Colorado School of Medicine to establish pre-clinical proof-of-concept for a spray-on treatment of genetically corrected cells; and a research collaboration with Houston Methodist Research Institute to explore molecular reversal of cellular aging through a novel cell suspension delivery system. The company was formerly known as AVITA Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to AVITA Medical Inc. in December 2020. AVITA Medical Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Valencia, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Avita Medical generates revenue primarily through the sale of its RECELL System and related consumables. The company has established a business model that includes direct sales to healthcare providers, hospitals, and clinics, as well as partnerships with distributors to expand its market reach. Key revenue streams come from the initial sale of the RECELL devices and ongoing revenue from the consumable kits required for each procedure. Additionally, Avita Medical engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other healthcare organizations and institutions, which can provide funding, enhance research capabilities, and broaden market access. The company may also benefit from reimbursement arrangements with insurers, which can facilitate patient access to its products and drive sales growth.

Avita Medical Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financials remain weak: large losses (TTM net margin -68.87%), declining TTM revenue (-3.32%), negative operating and free cash flow (cash burn), and a stressed balance sheet with negative equity, despite strong gross margins (~84%).

Income Statement

Avita Medical's income statement reflects significant challenges with profitability. The TTM data shows a negative net profit margin of -68.87%, indicating substantial losses relative to revenue. Revenue growth has also declined by 3.32% in the TTM, suggesting a contraction in sales. The gross profit margin remains high at 84.28%, which is a positive indicator of operational efficiency. However, the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight ongoing operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a concerning financial structure, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$6.67 million in the TTM, leading to an unsustainable debt-to-equity ratio of -3.46. This indicates high leverage and potential solvency issues. The return on equity is extremely high at 279.91%, but this is due to the negative equity, which distorts the metric. The equity ratio is also negative, reflecting financial instability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows negative operating cash flow of -$33.84 million and free cash flow of -$37.19 million in the TTM, indicating cash burn. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.17, suggesting that free cash flow is slightly better than net income, but both are negative. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	72.40M	64.25M	50.14M	34.42M	33.02M	29.23M
Gross Profit	60.63M	55.16M	42.36M	28.38M	26.92M	23.28M
EBITDA	-41.40M	-55.30M	-33.54M	-26.05M	-24.40M	-25.81M
Net Income	-48.55M	-61.84M	-35.38M	-26.66M	-25.14M	-26.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	63.73M	79.71M	111.64M	98.26M	116.02M	125.50M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.31M	35.88M	89.06M	79.34M	85.16M	110.75M
Total Debt	44.77M	45.98M	42.41M	918.00K	1.64M	878.00K
Total Liabilities	70.39M	75.21M	62.58M	13.52M	11.39M	9.85M
Stockholders Equity	-6.67M	4.50M	49.06M	84.74M	104.62M	115.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-37.19M	-58.27M	-39.46M	-19.61M	-18.52M	-27.07M
Operating Cash Flow	-33.84M	-48.94M	-38.01M	-19.09M	-18.04M	-25.90M
Investing Cash Flow	14.91M	37.36M	1.61M	-19.33M	-50.21M	-1.17M
Financing Cash Flow	15.71M	3.51M	40.37M	900.00K	64.06M	64.05M

Avita Medical Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.41
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RCEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.82, above the 50-day MA of 3.67, and below the 200-day MA of 5.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RCEL.

Avita Medical Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RPID	57 Neutral	$196.35M	-4.44	-68.83%	―	16.63%	10.43%
OWLT	56 Neutral	$332.90M	-4.52	―	―	26.83%	-52.47%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ANIK	50 Neutral	$133.11M	-4.05	-8.73%	―	-31.29%	65.68%
LUCD	49 Neutral	$156.01M	-1.33	-331.24%	―	5.01%	20.76%
LNSR	45 Neutral	$152.05M	-2.90	-422.35%	―	21.02%	-200.88%
RCEL	44 Neutral	$134.47M	-2.43	-1746.27%	―	20.59%	18.61%

Avita Medical Corporate Events

Avita Medical Secures New Credit Facility and Warrants

On January 13, 2026, AVITA Medical reported unaudited preliminary results showing full-year 2025 revenue of approximately $71.6 million, up about 11% from 2024 and within its revised guidance, despite a slight year-on-year decline in fourth-quarter revenue to roughly $17.6 million. The company refinanced its existing debt on the same date by closing a new five-year senior secured credit facility of up to $60 million with Perceptive Advisors, immediately drawing $50 million to repay prior borrowings and bolster liquidity, with an additional $10 million available through the first quarter of 2027. The new facility, secured against substantially all company assets and guaranteed by a U.S. subsidiary, introduces revenue-based financial covenants and minimum cash requirements that tighten operational discipline while resetting covenant levels to align with current performance. In conjunction with the financing, AVITA agreed to issue a 10-year warrant to Perceptive Advisors for up to 500,000 shares of common stock, potentially rising to 650,000 shares if the additional $10 million is drawn, subject to shareholder approval under Australian listing rules. Management highlighted that the strengthened balance sheet, together with advancing clinical programs—including full enrollment of the Cohealyx-I study and over 75% enrollment in PermeaDerm-I as of December 2025—positions the company to shift from stabilization to execution-led growth in 2026, when it expects to deliver revenue of approximately $80 million to $85 million, implying a 12% to 19% increase over 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (RCEL) stock is a Hold with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avita Medical stock, see the RCEL Stock Forecast page.

Avita Medical Adds Veteran Director Amid Leadership Transition

On January 5, 2026, AVITA Medical announced that veteran healthcare executive Joe Woody had been appointed as a new non-executive director effective January 1, 2026, while longtime chairman Lou Panaccio retired after more than a decade of service, including his tenure as chairman from July 2014 to August 2025. Woody, a former CEO of Avanos Medical and Acelity Holdings with extensive experience across major med-tech companies and industry association AdvaMed, will serve on all board committees and receive a mix of annual cash compensation and equity grants for his board role, a move that AVITA’s leadership framed as strengthening the board’s strategic and commercial expertise at a pivotal stage in the company’s growth and supporting its focus on long-term value creation for stakeholders as it scales its acute wound care business globally.

The most recent analyst rating on (RCEL) stock is a Sell with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avita Medical stock, see the RCEL Stock Forecast page.

Avita Medical Amends Credit Agreement with OrbiMed

On November 5, 2025, AVITA Medical agreed to a sixth amendment to its credit agreement with OrbiMed Advisors, adjusting the revenue covenant to $70 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2025. The amendment also waived a ‘going concern’ requirement for the third quarter, with AVITA adding $500,000 to the principal balance as consideration. The company’s Q3 2025 financial results showed a 13% decrease in commercial revenue compared to the previous year, attributed to reimbursement challenges. However, operating expenses decreased by 24%, and net loss improved. AVITA received CE Mark approval for RECELL GO® in Europe, expanding its international presence. The company is focusing on key U.S. centers and expects full-year revenue between $70 and $74 million, down from prior guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (RCEL) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avita Medical stock, see the RCEL Stock Forecast page.