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Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD)
NASDAQ:LUCD
US Market

Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD) AI Stock Analysis

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Lucid Diagnostics

(NASDAQ:LUCD)

Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-4.76%Downside)
Lucid Diagnostics faces severe financial challenges, with negative margins and cash flow issues weighing heavily on its valuation. Despite positive corporate events, the bearish technical indicators and poor valuation metrics contribute to a low overall stock score.
Positive Factors
Medicare Coverage
Medicare coverage appears imminent, which could lead to a significant increase in test volume and revenue from Medicare patients and benefit commercial/private payer adoption.
Potential Acquisition
EsoGuard's huge first mover advantage and better test makes Lucid a very attractive potential acquisition candidate.
Strategic Partnerships
LUCD partnered with a major health system to expand access to its EsoGuard testing program, which is expected to broaden adoption and drive topline growth.
Negative Factors
Commercialization Challenges
Lucid’s devices still have long commercialization and growth challenges ahead.
Financial Performance
Lucid reported 1Q25 revenue that was below analyst estimates and FactSet consensus.
Revenue Miss
LUCD missed consensus revenue due partly to temporary payment delays at United Healthcare.

Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Lucid Diagnostics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLucid Diagnostics (LUCD) is a medical diagnostics company focused on the development and commercialization of diagnostic tests for the early detection of esophageal precancer and cancer. The company's core product is the EsoGuard Esophageal DNA Test, which is designed to detect genetic abnormalities indicative of esophageal cancer and precancerous conditions, such as Barrett's Esophagus, using a non-invasive method. Lucid Diagnostics operates in the healthcare sector, specifically within the molecular diagnostics and gastrointestinal health fields.
How the Company Makes MoneyLucid Diagnostics generates revenue primarily through the sale and distribution of its EsoGuard Esophageal DNA Test. The company earns money by partnering with healthcare providers, including hospitals, clinics, and gastroenterologists, who administer the test to patients. These partnerships are crucial as they extend the reach of EsoGuard to patients who are at risk of esophageal cancer or precancerous conditions. Revenue is primarily driven by the volume of tests conducted and processed, as well as through reimbursement agreements with insurance companies and healthcare payers. Additionally, Lucid Diagnostics may engage in research collaborations and licensing agreements to further expand its diagnostic offerings and market presence.

Lucid Diagnostics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -11.76%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong positive outlook with significant advancements in test volume, insurance coverage, and clinical validation. The company's financial position is strong, bolstered by recent financing. However, challenges remain in revenue recognition and the reimbursement environment, which are expected to improve with strategic efforts underway.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Test Volume
Lucid Diagnostics achieved a record quarterly test volume with over 4,000 tests, surpassing their target of 2,500 to 3,000 tests per quarter.
First Commercial Insurance Coverage for EsoGuard
Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield of New York established a positive commercial insurance coverage policy for EsoGuard, setting an important precedent for future engagements with commercial payers.
Expansion of Clinical Evidence Base
Lucid Diagnostics had two clinical utility studies accepted for peer-reviewed publication, bringing the total to five, establishing a strong chain of evidence for the clinical utility of EsoGuard.
Strong Financial Position
Lucid Diagnostics ended the year with $22.4 million in cash, and after a $15 million RDO financing, entered the new year with a pro forma cash of about $37 million.
NIH Grant Awarded for Expanded Indication
Lucid Diagnostics received an $8 million NIH grant to study EsoGuard for an expanded indication to include patients without heartburn, potentially increasing the total addressable market.
Positive NCCN Guidelines Update
The NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines now include a section on screening for esophageal precancer, aligning with existing guidelines from the Gastroenterology Association, which supports EsoGuard.
Negative Updates
Low Revenue Recognition
Despite the high test volume, revenue recognition was limited to $1.2 million due to the early stages of the reimbursement process, with revenue recognized only upon collection.
Challenging Reimbursement Environment
Lucid Diagnostics faces challenges with traditional reimbursement claims, resulting in elongated collection times and a significant portion of claims being denied or requiring further authorization.
Company Guidance
During the Lucid Diagnostics Fourth Quarter 2024 Business Update Conference Call, several key metrics and strategic developments were highlighted. The company reported $1.2 million in revenue for the fourth quarter, with a record quarterly test volume of over 4,000 EsoGuard tests, surpassing their target of 2,500 to 3,000 tests per quarter. Lucid Diagnostics achieved a significant milestone by securing positive commercial insurance coverage from Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield of New York for EsoGuard, marking their first such coverage policy. They also noted that the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) Clinical Practice Guidelines now include non-endoscopic biomarker testing as an acceptable alternative to endoscopy for esophageal precancer screening. Additionally, Lucid's recent strategic accomplishments included expanding their clinical evidence base with the publication of several clinical utility studies and securing an $8 million NIH grant to study an expanded indication for EsoGuard. Financially, the company ended the year with $22.4 million in cash, bolstered by a recent $15 million registered direct offering, providing a pro forma cash position of approximately $37 million as they enter the new year. Lucid is focused on ramping up revenue through expanded sales channels, including direct contracting with employers and a concierge medicine cash-pay program, with expectations for these initiatives to impact revenue in the second half of 2025.

Lucid Diagnostics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lucid Diagnostics is experiencing rapid revenue growth but is struggling with profitability, cash flow, and leverage. The company faces high operating losses and negative cash flows, indicating significant financial instability. While there are some improvements in equity, substantial risks remain due to reliance on debt and negative margins.
Income Statement
20
Very Negative
Lucid Diagnostics has shown significant revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 with a revenue growth rate of 178883%. However, the company is still experiencing negative gross profit and net income, leading to negative margins. The net profit margin and EBIT margin are severely negative, indicating substantial losses relative to revenue. The financials reflect a challenging profitability position.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has seen improvement due to rising stockholders' equity but remains concerning. The equity ratio is low, indicating heavy reliance on liabilities. The company's assets are largely financed through debt and liabilities, posing a risk amidst negative equity in previous years. However, the current positive equity marks a potential recovery trajectory.
Cash Flow
25
Negative
Lucid Diagnostics has a negative free cash flow, indicating significant cash outflow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting operational challenges. The company heavily relies on financing activities to manage cash flow, which is unsustainable in the long term. Improvement in cash generation from operations is crucial.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.17M4.35M2.43M377.00K500.00K0.00
Gross Profit-2.82M-3.92M-6.05M-3.24M-85.00K0.00
EBITDA-60.91M-44.34M-49.75M-54.23M-27.41M482.00
Net Income-61.83M-45.53M-52.67M-56.17M-28.08M-8.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets32.80B30.71M27.27M32.51M59.00M2.19M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments25.24B22.36B18.90M22.47M53.66M111.25K
Total Debt35.27B21.25M15.26M2.00M0.000.00
Total Liabilities38.17B25.32M29.58M9.46M4.26M15.71M
Stockholders Equity-5.38B5.39B-2.31M23.05M54.74M-13.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-12.50B-44.79M-33.04M-30.59M-18.53M-5.63M
Operating Cash Flow-12.50B-44.14M-32.82M-29.68M-17.67M-5.63M
Investing Cash Flow-480.22M-646.00K-221.00K-4.11M-862.00K0.00
Financing Cash Flow15.47B48.25M29.46M2.61M72.08M5.58M

Lucid Diagnostics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.05
Price Trends
50DMA
1.27
Negative
100DMA
1.33
Negative
200DMA
1.10
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Positive
RSI
31.36
Neutral
STOCH
13.79
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUCD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.22, below the 50-day MA of 1.27, and below the 200-day MA of 1.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LUCD.

Lucid Diagnostics Risk Analysis

Lucid Diagnostics disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lucid Diagnostics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Lucid Diagnostics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
54
Neutral
$316.75M-189.46%-3.24%31.00%
51
Neutral
$7.50B0.32-61.87%2.27%17.10%1.59%
41
Neutral
$113.60M-1897.35%39.89%5.87%
38
Underperform
$145.40M-80.65%-24.18%
33
Underperform
$148.06M-30.20%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LUCD
Lucid Diagnostics
1.05
0.26
32.91%
NKTR
Nektar Therapeutics
25.53
6.18
31.94%
LXEO
Lexeo Therapeutics, Inc.
4.38
-11.11
-71.72%
BIOA
BioAge Labs, Inc.
4.24
-16.76
-79.81%

Lucid Diagnostics Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lucid Diagnostics Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Positive
Jun 18, 2025

On June 18, 2025, Lucid Diagnostics Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, where approximately 70.9% of the shares were represented. During the meeting, the stockholders elected management’s nominees for director and approved other key proposals, including the issuance of common stock under the 2024 Convertible Notes and the ratification of CBIZ CPAs P.C. as the company’s independent accounting firm for 2025. These approvals are expected to support Lucid Diagnostics’ strategic initiatives and strengthen its financial and operational framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUCD) stock is a Buy with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lucid Diagnostics stock, see the LUCD Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Lucid Diagnostics Enters $25M Sales Agreement
Neutral
May 30, 2025

On May 30, 2025, Lucid Diagnostics Inc. entered into a Sales Agreement with Maxim Group LLC to offer and sell up to $25,000,000 of its common stock through an at-the-market offering. The proceeds from this offering are intended for working capital and general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s operational capabilities and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUCD) stock is a Buy with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lucid Diagnostics stock, see the LUCD Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lucid Diagnostics Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
May 14, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Lucid Diagnostics reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, processing 3,034 EsoGuard tests and generating $0.8 million in revenue. The company secured additional capital, extending its financial runway beyond key reimbursement milestones, and launched initiatives to expand its market reach, including a partnership with a major health system and a new campaign for its EsoCheck device. Despite a net loss of $36 million, Lucid strengthened its balance sheet through stock offerings and continued to gain traction in various sales channels, positioning itself for future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUCD) stock is a Buy with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lucid Diagnostics stock, see the LUCD Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Lucid Diagnostics Closes $16.1 Million Public Offering
Positive
Apr 11, 2025

On April 11, 2025, Lucid Diagnostics Inc. announced the closing of its public offering of 14,375,000 shares of common stock at $1.20 per share, raising approximately $16.1 million in net proceeds. The funds will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes, with Canaccord Genuity LLC and Maxim Group LLC managing the offering. This move is expected to bolster Lucid’s financial position as it continues to focus on cancer prevention diagnostics.

Private Placements and Financing
Lucid Diagnostics Announces Public Stock Offering
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

On April 9, 2025, Lucid Diagnostics announced an underwritten public offering of its common stock, with Canaccord Genuity LLC as the sole bookrunner. The offering, priced at $1.20 per share, aims to raise approximately $15 million, with proceeds intended for working capital and general corporate purposes. The sale of 12,500,000 shares is expected to close around April 11, 2025, subject to customary closing conditions. The offering is made under an existing shelf registration statement, and the company has granted underwriters a 45-day option to purchase additional shares.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025