Lucid Diagnostics Inc. (LUCD)
NASDAQ:LUCD
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Lucid Diagnostics
(NASDAQ:LUCD)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(22.95% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
Overall score is weighed down primarily by weak financial performance (structurally negative margins, widening losses, rising leverage, and accelerating cash burn) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). The earnings call provides a partial offset via stronger test volumes and payer/VA progress, but reimbursement/collection uncertainty and burn rate remain key constraints; valuation offers limited support given negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
VA FSS contract / Market access
The VA FSS award creates a durable institutional channel into 170 VA centers and ~9M enrolled veterans at Medicare-aligned pricing. That large, predictable procurement pathway materially expands addressable market, bolsters institutional credibility, and supports longer-term scaling of test volume and revenue.
Negative Factors
Negative unit economics / margins
Consistently negative gross profit shows the core test economics are not yet sustainable. Without material improvements in reimbursement, allowed rates, or cost per test, the company cannot convert higher volumes into durable profits, limiting free cash flow and long-term viability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
VA FSS contract / Market access
The VA FSS award creates a durable institutional channel into 170 VA centers and ~9M enrolled veterans at Medicare-aligned pricing. That large, predictable procurement pathway materially expands addressable market, bolsters institutional credibility, and supports longer-term scaling of test volume and revenue.
Read all positive factors
Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$249.49M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)571.65K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth5.01%
EPS Growth20.76%
CountryUS
Employees72
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.10
Shares Outstanding176,945,970
10 Day Avg. Volume566,908
30 Day Avg. Volume571,648
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)10.16
Price to Sales (P/S)23.61
P/FCF Ratio>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-138.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue-7.34K
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.21K
Enterprise Value/Ebitda614.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.10Price Target Upside236.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.43M
Lucid Diagnostics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lucid Diagnostics Inc. operates as a commercial-stage medical diagnostics technology company. The company focuses on patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease, which is also known as chronic heartburn, acid reflux, or simply reflux, who are at...
How the Company Makes Money
Lucid Diagnostics primarily makes money by performing and billing for its esophageal testing services. The company’s core revenue stream is generated when clinicians order Lucid’s tests (e.g., EsoGuard, typically performed on samples collected wit...
Lucid Diagnostics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of strong commercial and clinical momentum—notably higher test volumes, a VA FSS contract at Medicare-aligned pricing, a large real-world study with excellent operational metrics, and advancing payer engagements—balanced against meaningful near-term financial and reimbursement risks. The company has demonstrated product/market fit and payer traction, but current revenue recognition limitations, claim adjudication challenges, a high cash burn rate, and dependence on the timing of Medicare’s LCD materially constrain near-term cash flow and ability to scale until coverage is finalized.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Test Volume Growth
EsoGuard test volume in Q4 was 3,664 tests, exceeding the company's 2,500–3,000 target range and representing a ~29% increase versus the prior period; management indicated this may represent a new, higher run rate driven by improved field productivity and targeting.
Negative Updates
Limited Revenue Recognition and Collections
Although billable value for the quarter was ~ $9.0M, only ~$1.5M was recognized as revenue (≈17% of billable); management noted ~80% of billable amounts are not being collected currently due to reimbursement uncertainty and ASC 606 variable consideration constraints.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 Test Volume Growth
EsoGuard test volume in Q4 was 3,664 tests, exceeding the company's 2,500–3,000 target range and representing a ~29% increase versus the prior period; management indicated this may represent a new, higher run rate driven by improved field productivity and targeting.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s guidance focused on imminent Medicare coverage (draft LCD → mandatory 45‑day comment period → final LCD with one‑year retroactive payment window) and near‑term commercial rollouts—including a Q4 test volume of 3,664 (above the 2,500–3,000 target and ~29% higher), Q4 recognized revenue of $1.5M (≈24% sequential increase) against roughly $9M of billable value, a billed ASP of $2,499, and Medicare representing ~16% of volume (up from 10–12%) with a 28% sequential rise in Medicare claims; Q4 claim status: 76% adjudicated, 24% pending, and ~50% of adjudicated claims allowed at an average of $16.23/test; VA progress includes an FSS contract covering 170 medical centers and ~9,000,000 enrolled veterans with FSS pricing aligned to the company’s Medicare rate (cited as $938), plus clinical validation from ~12,000 real‑world patients showing 95% EsoCheck collection success, 95% of procedures <2 minutes and 100% safety; financial and operational metrics highlighted cash of $34.7M at year‑end, average burn ~$11.1M/quarter, non‑GAAP operating expenses of $48.7M (vs. $44.3M prior year) and a non‑GAAP net loss of ~$44M, approximately 177M shares outstanding (GAAP 131M), and a Series B‑1 conversion adding ~16.8M shares on May 6.Lucid Diagnostics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
10
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.71M | 4.35M | 2.43M | 377.00K | 500.00K |
| Gross Profit | -2.84M | -3.92M | -6.05M | -3.24M | -85.00K |
| EBITDA | -48.77M | -44.34M | -49.75M | -54.23M | -27.41M |
| Net Income | -58.01M | -45.53M | -52.67M | -56.17M | -28.08M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 40.45M | 30.71M | 27.27M | 32.51M | 59.00M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 34.70B | 22.36M | 18.90M | 22.47M | 53.66M |
| Total Debt | 25.82B | 21.25M | 15.26M | 2.00M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 29.51M | 25.32M | 29.58M | 9.46M | 4.26M |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.94M | 5.39M | -2.31M | 23.05M | 54.74M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -46.48B | -44.79M | -33.04M | -30.59M | -18.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -46.48B | -44.14M | -32.82M | -29.68M | -17.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -197.00M | -646.00K | -221.00K | -4.11M | -862.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 59.03B | 48.25M | 29.46M | 2.61M | 72.08M |
Lucid Diagnostics Technical Analysis
Positive
1.22
Price Trends
1.29
Positive
1.21
Positive
1.16
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
68.53
Neutral
92.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUCD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.20, below the 50-day MA of 1.29, and above the 200-day MA of 1.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LUCD.
Lucid Diagnostics Risk Analysis
Lucid Diagnostics disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lucid Diagnostics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lucid Diagnostics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $70.03M | 22.00 | 10.27% | ― | 16.88% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $158.06M | -1.98 | 476.59% | ― | 20.59% | 18.61% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
45 Neutral | $249.49M | ― | -591.09% | ― | 5.01% | 20.76% | |
45 Neutral | $63.36M | -1.67 | -82.79% | ― | 15.59% | 4.13% | |
43 Neutral | $159.39M | -217.35 | 239.66% | ― | 26.83% | -52.47% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
LUCD
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Lucid Diagnostics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lucid Diagnostics Reports Q4 2025 Results, Highlights VA Contract
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
Lucid Diagnostics reported that in the fourth quarter of 2025 it processed 3,664 EsoGuard tests and generated $1.5 million in EsoGuard revenue, while full-year 2025 revenue reached $4.7 million. For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, operating e...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.