tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Lucid Diagnostics Inc. (LUCD)
:LUCD
US Market
Advertisement

Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
513 Followers

Top Page

LUCD

Lucid Diagnostics

(NASDAQ:LUCD)

Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▲(2.04% Upside)
Lucid Diagnostics faces significant financial challenges, with negative profitability and cash flow issues being the most impactful factors. Despite these challenges, the company's rapid revenue growth and strategic advancements, such as potential Medicare coverage and increased institutional visibility, provide some optimism for future prospects. However, the current bearish technical indicators and negative valuation metrics highlight the risks involved.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Potential
EsoGuard's huge first mover advantage and better test makes Lucid a very attractive potential acquisition candidate.
Collaborations
The company recently partnered with Hoag, a large regional healthcare provider, to launch a systemwide EsoGuard testing program.
Market Penetration
Lucid's efforts to deepen its market penetration through a comprehensive strategy should drive revenue higher over time.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Delays
The CAC meeting delays the MolDX decision.
Revenue Estimates
The Medicare coverage determination is taking slightly longer than expected, leading to lowered revenue estimates.
Test Volume Decline
EsoGuard test volume declined by 12% Y/Y to 2,756.

Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Lucid Diagnostics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLucid Diagnostics (LUCD) is a medical diagnostics company focused on the development and commercialization of diagnostic tests for the early detection of esophageal precancer and cancer. The company's core product is the EsoGuard Esophageal DNA Test, which is designed to detect genetic abnormalities indicative of esophageal cancer and precancerous conditions, such as Barrett's Esophagus, using a non-invasive method. Lucid Diagnostics operates in the healthcare sector, specifically within the molecular diagnostics and gastrointestinal health fields.
How the Company Makes MoneyLucid Diagnostics generates revenue primarily through the sale and distribution of its EsoGuard Esophageal DNA Test. The company earns money by partnering with healthcare providers, including hospitals, clinics, and gastroenterologists, who administer the test to patients. These partnerships are crucial as they extend the reach of EsoGuard to patients who are at risk of esophageal cancer or precancerous conditions. Revenue is primarily driven by the volume of tests conducted and processed, as well as through reimbursement agreements with insurance companies and healthcare payers. Additionally, Lucid Diagnostics may engage in research collaborations and licensing agreements to further expand its diagnostic offerings and market presence.

Lucid Diagnostics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -2.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong positive outlook with significant advancements in test volume, insurance coverage, and clinical validation. The company's financial position is strong, bolstered by recent financing. However, challenges remain in revenue recognition and the reimbursement environment, which are expected to improve with strategic efforts underway.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Test Volume
Lucid Diagnostics achieved a record quarterly test volume with over 4,000 tests, surpassing their target of 2,500 to 3,000 tests per quarter.
First Commercial Insurance Coverage for EsoGuard
Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield of New York established a positive commercial insurance coverage policy for EsoGuard, setting an important precedent for future engagements with commercial payers.
Expansion of Clinical Evidence Base
Lucid Diagnostics had two clinical utility studies accepted for peer-reviewed publication, bringing the total to five, establishing a strong chain of evidence for the clinical utility of EsoGuard.
Strong Financial Position
Lucid Diagnostics ended the year with $22.4 million in cash, and after a $15 million RDO financing, entered the new year with a pro forma cash of about $37 million.
NIH Grant Awarded for Expanded Indication
Lucid Diagnostics received an $8 million NIH grant to study EsoGuard for an expanded indication to include patients without heartburn, potentially increasing the total addressable market.
Positive NCCN Guidelines Update
The NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines now include a section on screening for esophageal precancer, aligning with existing guidelines from the Gastroenterology Association, which supports EsoGuard.
Negative Updates
Low Revenue Recognition
Despite the high test volume, revenue recognition was limited to $1.2 million due to the early stages of the reimbursement process, with revenue recognized only upon collection.
Challenging Reimbursement Environment
Lucid Diagnostics faces challenges with traditional reimbursement claims, resulting in elongated collection times and a significant portion of claims being denied or requiring further authorization.
Company Guidance
During the Lucid Diagnostics Fourth Quarter 2024 Business Update Conference Call, several key metrics and strategic developments were highlighted. The company reported $1.2 million in revenue for the fourth quarter, with a record quarterly test volume of over 4,000 EsoGuard tests, surpassing their target of 2,500 to 3,000 tests per quarter. Lucid Diagnostics achieved a significant milestone by securing positive commercial insurance coverage from Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield of New York for EsoGuard, marking their first such coverage policy. They also noted that the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) Clinical Practice Guidelines now include non-endoscopic biomarker testing as an acceptable alternative to endoscopy for esophageal precancer screening. Additionally, Lucid's recent strategic accomplishments included expanding their clinical evidence base with the publication of several clinical utility studies and securing an $8 million NIH grant to study an expanded indication for EsoGuard. Financially, the company ended the year with $22.4 million in cash, bolstered by a recent $15 million registered direct offering, providing a pro forma cash position of approximately $37 million as they enter the new year. Lucid is focused on ramping up revenue through expanded sales channels, including direct contracting with employers and a concierge medicine cash-pay program, with expectations for these initiatives to impact revenue in the second half of 2025.

Lucid Diagnostics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lucid Diagnostics shows rapid revenue growth, but faces significant profitability and cash flow challenges. The company is highly leveraged, with negative margins and cash flows, indicating financial risk. Improvement in operational efficiency and debt management is crucial for sustainable financial health.
Income Statement
15
Very Negative
Lucid Diagnostics has shown significant revenue growth in the TTM period, but the company is struggling with negative margins across the board. The gross profit margin, net profit margin, EBIT margin, and EBITDA margin are all negative, indicating that the company is not currently profitable. The high revenue growth rate is a positive sign, but the substantial losses suggest that the company needs to improve its cost management and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
20
Very Negative
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk if the company cannot generate sufficient cash flow to service its debt. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's inability to generate profit from shareholders' equity. However, the equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting that the company has a reasonable proportion of equity in its asset base.
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
The cash flow statement shows negative operating and free cash flows, which are concerning as they indicate the company is not generating enough cash from its operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting that the company is managing its cash flow relative to its net losses. However, the overall negative cash flow growth and coverage ratios highlight liquidity challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.36M4.35M2.43M377.00K500.00K0.00
Gross Profit-2.81M-3.92M-6.05M-3.24M-85.00K0.00
EBITDA-54.36M-44.34M-49.75M-54.23M-27.41M482.00
Net Income-55.26M-45.53M-52.67M-56.17M-28.08M-8.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets38.67M30.71M27.27M32.51M59.00M2.19M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments31.12M22.36M18.90M22.47M53.66M111.25K
Total Debt27.55M21.25M15.26M2.00M0.000.00
Total Liabilities30.81M25.32M29.58M9.46M4.26M15.71M
Stockholders Equity7.86M5.39M-2.31M23.05M54.74M-13.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-23.03B-44.79M-33.04M-30.59M-18.53M-5.63M
Operating Cash Flow-23.03B-44.14M-32.82M-29.68M-17.67M-5.63M
Investing Cash Flow-118.61M-646.00K-221.00K-4.11M-862.00K0.00
Financing Cash Flow16.49B48.25M29.46M2.61M72.08M5.58M

Lucid Diagnostics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.98
Price Trends
50DMA
1.13
Negative
100DMA
1.23
Negative
200DMA
1.14
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Negative
RSI
35.60
Neutral
STOCH
37.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUCD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.04, below the 50-day MA of 1.13, and below the 200-day MA of 1.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LUCD.

Lucid Diagnostics Risk Analysis

Lucid Diagnostics disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lucid Diagnostics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Lucid Diagnostics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
54
Neutral
$84.74M-9.80%15.16%-39.18%
51
Neutral
$7.44B-0.20-46.00%2.26%22.80%-2.27%
48
Neutral
$138.74M60.56%36.81%-74.26%
47
Neutral
$106.43M-463.56%14.74%14.63%
45
Neutral
$154.39M-935.73%38.32%-1.31%
45
Neutral
$64.79M-66.88%18.24%4.81%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LUCD
Lucid Diagnostics
0.98
0.14
16.67%
RCEL
Avita Medical
5.80
-3.28
-36.12%
XTNT
Xtant Medical Holdings
0.65
0.03
4.84%
LUNG
Pulmonx
1.51
-5.06
-77.02%
OWLT
Owlet
7.71
3.08
66.52%

Lucid Diagnostics Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lucid Diagnostics Advances Towards Medicare Coverage
Positive
Aug 13, 2025

Lucid Diagnostics reported financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with revenue of $1.2 million from 2,756 processed EsoGuard tests. The company ended the quarter with over $30 million in cash, extending its financial runway into 2026. Lucid is advancing towards securing Medicare coverage for EsoGuard, with a significant advisory committee meeting scheduled for September 4, 2025. The company has also initiated testing under a new insurance policy and partnered with Hoag to expand access to its testing programs. Additionally, Lucid joined the Russell 2000 and 3000 Indexes, enhancing its visibility among institutional investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUCD) stock is a Buy with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lucid Diagnostics stock, see the LUCD Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lucid Diagnostics Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Positive
Jun 18, 2025

On June 18, 2025, Lucid Diagnostics Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, where approximately 70.9% of the shares were represented. During the meeting, the stockholders elected management’s nominees for director and approved other key proposals, including the issuance of common stock under the 2024 Convertible Notes and the ratification of CBIZ CPAs P.C. as the company’s independent accounting firm for 2025. These approvals are expected to support Lucid Diagnostics’ strategic initiatives and strengthen its financial and operational framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUCD) stock is a Buy with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lucid Diagnostics stock, see the LUCD Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Lucid Diagnostics Enters $25M Sales Agreement
Neutral
May 30, 2025

On May 30, 2025, Lucid Diagnostics Inc. entered into a Sales Agreement with Maxim Group LLC to offer and sell up to $25,000,000 of its common stock through an at-the-market offering. The proceeds from this offering are intended for working capital and general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s operational capabilities and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUCD) stock is a Buy with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lucid Diagnostics stock, see the LUCD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 14, 2025