Portillo's (PTLO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $347.48M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 2.40%
• EPS Growth: -14.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,512
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 71,932,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,177,716
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,346,132
• PEG Ratio: 0.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.81
• P/FCF Ratio: 58.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.48
• 1Y Price Target: $6.67
• Price Target Upside: 42.83% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $730.49M

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(17.77% Upside)

Portillo's overall stock score is primarily driven by strong financial performance and a relatively attractive valuation. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and mixed earnings call sentiment highlights operational challenges and market expansion risks. The absence of a dividend yield also impacts the valuation appeal.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates Portillo's ability to expand its market presence and maintain customer interest, supporting long-term business sustainability.

Loyalty Program Success

The success of the Perks loyalty program enhances customer retention and repeat business, which are critical for sustaining revenue and competitive advantage.

Improved Profitability

Improved profitability margins reflect effective cost management and operational efficiency, strengthening financial health and resilience.

Negative Factors

Same-Store Sales Decline

A decline in same-store sales suggests challenges in maintaining customer traffic and market share, potentially impacting future revenue growth.

Increased Costs

Rising costs, particularly in commodities, can pressure margins and profitability, necessitating strategic pricing or cost management adjustments.

Labor Cost Pressures

Increasing labor costs can erode profit margins and require strategic workforce management to maintain financial performance.

Portillo's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Portillo's Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership and operation of fast casual and quick service restaurants in the United States. The company offers Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages, Italian beef sandwiches, char-grilled burgers, chopped salads, crinkle-cut French fries, homemade chocolate cakes, and chocolate cake shakes. As of March 10, 2022, it operated in 70 locations across nine states. The company also offers its products through its website. Portillo's Inc. was founded in 1963 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Portillo's generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its restaurant locations. The company operates a direct-to-consumer model, where customers can order food for dining in, carryout, or delivery. Key revenue streams include dine-in sales, takeout orders, and catering services for events. Additionally, Portillo's has expanded its brand through online ordering and delivery partnerships with third-party services, which has become increasingly significant in urban areas. The company's focus on high-quality ingredients and customer service helps drive repeat business and brand loyalty, contributing to its overall financial performance.

Portillo's Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Portillo's demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability metrics. The balance sheet shows a balanced leverage position, though maintaining or reducing debt levels could enhance stability. Cash flow generation is robust, but careful management of capital expenditures is necessary to sustain cash flow health.

Income Statement

Portillo's exhibits strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) increase of 6.0% from the previous year. The gross profit margin has improved to 42.8% from 38.8% in 2022, showing enhanced cost efficiency. Net profit margin stands at 3.9% TTM, which is a positive turn from previous losses, indicating better profitability management. However, the EBITDA margin at 13.0% suggests room for improving operating efficiencies compared to industry standards.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.50 TTM, indicating a balanced leverage position relative to equity. Return on Equity (ROE) has improved to 6.9% TTM, reflecting better utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 27.1% TTM, which suggests a stable capital structure but indicates potential risk if debt levels increase.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.48 TTM highlights strong cash generation relative to net profits. Free cash flow growth rate is negative at -17.6% TTM, mainly due to increased capital expenditures, which could impact cash reserves if not managed carefully. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.29 TTM, demonstrating some reliance on free cash flow to support net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	730.93M	710.55M	679.90M	587.10M	534.95M	455.47M
Gross Profit	250.52M	287.78M	275.17M	228.47M	229.40M	197.03M
EBITDA	84.17M	94.79M	79.85M	67.53M	46.06M	81.88M
Net Income	24.50M	29.52M	18.42M	10.85M	5.99M	12.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.59B	1.50B	1.39B	1.28B	999.57M	910.22M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.23M	22.88M	10.44M	44.43M	39.26M	41.43M
Total Debt	655.31M	596.23M	550.41M	523.60M	319.15M	469.70M
Total Liabilities	1.10B	1.01B	925.43M	847.18M	576.17M	769.51M
Stockholders Equity	459.42M	401.06M	322.38M	256.34M	171.26M	140.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-9.98M	9.85M	-17.14M	9.83M	6.69M	36.82M
Operating Cash Flow	54.78M	98.04M	70.78M	56.89M	42.87M	58.27M
Investing Cash Flow	-64.75M	-88.11M	-87.84M	-47.02M	-36.26M	-21.42M
Financing Cash Flow	8.07M	2.51M	-16.93M	-4.71M	-8.78M	-18.05M

Portillo's Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.67
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PTLO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.87, below the 50-day MA of 5.13, and below the 200-day MA of 8.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PTLO.

Portillo's Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BJRI	74 Outperform	$874.56M	30.97	8.44%	―	3.85%	7.57%
PBPB	68 Neutral	―	―	19.65%	―	-1.72%	-70.31%
PTLO	67 Neutral	$347.48M	12.74	5.82%	―	2.40%	-14.90%
NATH	61 Neutral	$392.43M	17.28	―	1.98%	7.81%	4.58%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DENN	61 Neutral	$319.81M	31.72	―	―	0.93%	-41.47%
BLMN	52 Neutral	$589.70M	-9.77	10.80%	9.97%	-13.07%	-1139.12%

Portillo's Corporate Events

Portillo’s Reports Q3 2025 Revenue Growth Amid Challenges

Portillo’s Inc. reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, showing a total revenue increase of 1.8% to $181.4 million, attributed to new restaurant openings. However, the company faced challenges with a decrease in same-restaurant sales by 0.8% and a significant drop in operating income by 66% to $5.4 million. The company is focusing on resetting its growth model to improve unit economics and has opened its first in-line restaurant format, with plans for further expansion.

Portillo’s Announces Departure of Chief Development Officer

On October 29, 2025, Portillo’s announced the departure of Mike Ellis as Chief Development Officer, effective October 31, 2025. His exit will be considered a qualifying termination under the Senior Executive Severance Plan, entitling him to various benefits, including cash compensation, a prorated annual bonus, health insurance reimbursement, and outplacement services. Additionally, his restricted stock units will vest immediately, while other equity grants will be forfeited.

Portillo’s Announces CEO Departure and Interim Appointment

On September 22, 2025, Portillo’s Inc. announced the departure of Michael Osanloo as President and CEO, effective September 21, 2025. Michael A. Miles, Jr., who has been with the company since 2014, was appointed as the interim CEO. The Board has initiated a search for a new CEO, engaging a global executive search firm for the process. The leadership transition comes as the company seeks to enhance shareholder value and improve its recent performance, with Mr. Osanloo supporting the transition as a Special Advisor for 90 days.

Portillo’s Announces Strategic Reset for Growth Plans

On September 10, 2025, Portillo’s announced a strategic reset of its development and growth plans to focus on core markets, enhance unit economics, and ensure long-term success. The company aims to drive sustainable traffic through consistent service and value, simplify operations by discontinuing its Chicago breakfast pilot, and optimize capital deployment to achieve positive free cash flow in 2026. Portillo’s updated its fiscal 2025 financial targets, reflecting a more cautious growth approach with plans to open 8 new units instead of 12, and adjusted revenue and EBITDA projections. The company also plans to open 8 restaurants in 2026, including its first airport location.