Portillo's (PTLO)
NASDAQ:PTLO
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Portillo's
(NASDAQ:PTLO)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-13.49% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/11/26
The score is held back primarily by uneven cash flow generation and weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these are improving leverage and a moderate valuation, while the latest earnings call adds a balanced outlook—positive free cash flow targets but notable near-term margin, traffic, and cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Improved leverage
A materially lower debt-to-equity (~0.73 in 2025) meaningfully reduces financial risk and interest burden over time. Stronger leverage gives management flexibility to fund measured growth, absorb temporary margin hits, and focus on deleveraging and capital allocation without immediate refinancing pressure.
Negative Factors
Volatile free cash flow
Recurring negative or volatile FCF despite positive net income signals weak cash conversion and heavier reinvestment or working-capital strain. This constrains the company’s ability to pay down revolver, invest in stores, or weather sustained traffic softness until cash generation stabilizes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved leverage
A materially lower debt-to-equity (~0.73 in 2025) meaningfully reduces financial risk and interest burden over time. Stronger leverage gives management flexibility to fund measured growth, absorb temporary margin hits, and focus on deleveraging and capital allocation without immediate refinancing pressure.
Read all positive factors
Portillo's (PTLO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$436.44M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.5
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth2.40%
EPS Growth-14.90%
CountryUS
Employees8,512
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding72,065,650
10 Day Avg. Volume1,047,841
30 Day Avg. Volume1,225,212
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.40
Price to Book (P/B)0.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio-17.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.42Price Target Upside11.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$782.45M
Portillo's Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Portillo's Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership and operation of fast casual and quick service restaurants in the United States. The company offers Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages, Italian beef sandwiches, char-grille...
How the Company Makes Money
Portillo’s makes money primarily by selling prepared food and beverages directly to customers at its company-operated restaurants. The largest revenue stream is in-restaurant and off-premise transactions (e.g., dine-in, takeout, drive-thru, and di...
Portillo's Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Tracks the total number of restaurants, indicating the company’s expansion efforts and market penetration.
Tracks the total number of restaurants, indicating the company’s expansion efforts and market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPortillo's Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mixed picture: operational and strategic positives (successful Atlanta entry, strong Perks growth, meaningful operational improvements, modest revenue growth and reduced G&A) are offset by notable near-term financial and margin pressures (comp sales decline, rising commodity and labor costs, material margin drag from the Texas expansion, reduced cash from operations and development reset costs). Management outlined a clearer, more measured growth approach and expects positive free cash flow in 2026, but near-term risks and performance headwinds are significant.Positive Updates
Successful Atlanta Market Entry (Kennesaw)
New Kennesaw restaurant opened in November and generated over $2.0 million in sales in its first 8 weeks and $3.8 million in its first 100 days (settling near ~$200k/week). The location uses the smaller Future 1.0 prototype (6,200 sq ft, ~20% smaller) and validates the company's strategy of measured, first-in-market openings.
Negative Updates
Same-Restaurant Sales Decline
Same-restaurant sales fell 3.3% in the quarter (driven by a 3.3% decline in transactions), reducing revenues by approximately $5.4 million in Q4.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Atlanta Market Entry (Kennesaw)
New Kennesaw restaurant opened in November and generated over $2.0 million in sales in its first 8 weeks and $3.8 million in its first 100 days (settling near ~$200k/week). The location uses the smaller Future 1.0 prototype (6,200 sq ft, ~20% smaller) and validates the company's strategy of measured, first-in-market openings.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 management is targeting restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA margins of 20.5%–21% (inclusive of continued Texas headwinds and ~ $4.5M of incremental restaurant bonus expense) and expects adjusted EBITDA to be flat versus 2025 (while modeling a ~$9M total bonus headwind across restaurants and support); they plan to open 8 new restaurants, spend $55M–$60M of capital expenditures, generate positive free cash flow and use excess cash to pay down the revolver (Q4: $90M drawn, $56M available; total net debt $334M; cash $20M). Key operating and cost assumptions include mid-single-digit commodity inflation (beef pressure), 3%–3.5% labor inflation, modest pricing actions (FY‑2025 net effective price +3.2%; Q4 +2.3%; prior roll-offs ~1.5 pts in Jan, ~1.0 pt in Apr, ~0.5–0.7 pt in Jun), and a slight uptick in marketing within G&A ($80M–$82M guide, including ~ $4.5M bonus). For context Q4 revenue was $185.7M, restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA $40.6M (21.8% margin, down 270 bps), adjusted EBITDA $24.7M (down 2.1%), YTD cash from operations $71.9M (down 26.7%), dead site costs were $1.5M in Q4 ($5.1M FY), and interest expense was $5.7M (effective rate 6.7%).Portillo's Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 732.07M | 710.55M | 679.90M | 587.10M | 534.95M |
| Gross Profit | 499.74M | 287.78M | 275.17M | 228.47M | 229.40M |
| EBITDA | 76.01M | 94.79M | 79.85M | 67.53M | 46.06M |
| Net Income | 19.34M | 29.52M | 18.42M | 10.85M | 5.99M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.61B | 1.50B | 1.39B | 1.28B | 999.57M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.96M | 22.88M | 10.44M | 44.43M | 39.26M |
| Total Debt | 999.49M | 596.23M | 550.41M | 523.60M | 319.15M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.11B | 1.01B | 925.43M | 847.18M | 576.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 467.80M | 401.06M | 322.38M | 256.34M | 171.26M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -18.52M | 9.85M | -17.14M | 9.83M | 6.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 71.91M | 98.04M | 70.78M | 56.89M | 42.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -90.19M | -88.11M | -87.84M | -47.02M | -36.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 15.37M | 2.51M | -16.93M | -4.71M | -8.78M |
Portillo's Technical Analysis
Positive
5.78
Price Trends
5.50
Positive
5.25
Positive
6.46
Negative
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
60.14
Neutral
85.86
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PTLO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.51, above the 50-day MA of 5.50, and below the 200-day MA of 6.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.86 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PTLO.
Portillo's Risk Analysis
Portillo's disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Portillo's reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Portillo's Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $416.89M | 31.17 | -182.42% | 2.09% | 7.81% | 4.58% | |
69 Neutral | $792.77M | 17.08 | 13.19% | ― | 3.85% | 7.57% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $436.44M | 16.54 | 4.32% | ― | 2.40% | -14.90% | |
47 Neutral | $505.40M | -9.96 | 2.26% | 10.60% | -13.07% | -1139.12% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PTLO
Portillo's
5.78
-6.22
-51.83%
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants
37.40
5.49
17.20%
NATH
Nathan's Famous
101.69
12.98
14.63%
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands
5.93
-0.85
-12.52%
Portillo's Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Portillo’s Appoints Eugene Lee as New Board Chairman
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
Portillo’s Inc., the Chicago-rooted fast-casual chain known for Chicago-style hot dogs, Italian beef sandwiches and other comfort staples, operates a fully company-owned restaurant model with more than 100 locations across 11 states. The bra...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Portillo’s Reports 2025 Results, Resets Growth Strategy
Negative
Feb 24, 2026
Portillo’s Inc. reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 24, 2026, showing modest revenue growth but weaker profitability as traffic softened and costs rose. Fourth-quarter revenue inched up 0.6% to $185.7 million while...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Portillo’s Appoints Brett Patterson as New CEO
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Portillo’s announced that restaurant industry veteran Brett Patterson, formerly CEO of Miller’s Ale House and a longtime executive at Bloomin Brands’ Outback Steakhouse, will become President and Chief Execu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Portillo’s Highlights Growth Strategy at 2026 ICR Conference
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Portillo’s Inc. planned to present at the 2026 ICR Conference, with Interim Chief Executive Officer Mike Miles and Chief Financial Officer Michelle Hook outlining the company’s brand strength, growth performance an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.