Portillo's (PTLO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $858.88M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.81M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 4.57%
• EPS Growth: 6.89%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,512
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 64,082,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,203,883
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,812,705
• PEG Ratio: -4.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 90.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.72
• 1Y Price Target: $15.57
• Price Target Upside: 35.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(8.89%Upside)

Portillo's strong financial performance and strategic initiatives drive a positive outlook. However, technical analysis suggests caution due to bearish signals. Valuation is moderate, and while recent corporate events are promising, economic uncertainties and cost pressures remain as challenges.

Positive Factors

Customer Engagement

Portillo’s new app-less loyalty program is expected to drive improved frequency following a shift to more targeted text-based offers.

Expansion Potential

The meetings reinforced the conviction that Portillo’s underlying business prospects remain healthy with strong expansion potential.

Operational Efficiency

Portillo’s has continued to make progress on speeding up drive-thru times, which currently stand at about 5 minutes 30 seconds following a renewed emphasis on employee training and optimized staffing.

Negative Factors

Cost Pressures

Restaurant-level margin contracted a greater-than-expected 110 basis points to 20.8% on higher commodity and labor costs.

Revenue Performance

Revenue lagged estimates by about 4% and consensus by 6%, reflecting a slower-than-expected start from units that opened in the fourth quarter.

Traffic Trends

Continued negative traffic trends are anticipated, impacting sales despite pricing and mix improvements.

Portillo's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Portillo's (PTLO) is a renowned American fast-casual restaurant chain, primarily known for its Chicago-style hot dogs, Italian beef sandwiches, burgers, and other classic American comfort foods. Founded in 1963, the company has grown to become a beloved brand with a strong presence in several states. Portillo's offers a diverse menu that caters to a wide range of tastes, emphasizing quality ingredients and authentic recipes, which has garnered a loyal customer base.

How the Company Makes Money

Portillo's generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its restaurant locations. The company's revenue streams include in-restaurant dining, takeout, and drive-thru services. Additionally, Portillo's leverages its brand reputation to engage in catering services, which constitute a significant part of its revenue, especially for events and large gatherings. The company also benefits from its online ordering platform, which facilitates delivery and pick-up services, further expanding its customer reach. Strategic location choices and a focus on high-traffic areas contribute to its earnings, along with seasonal promotions and limited-time menu offerings that drive customer engagement and sales. Portillo's does not currently have any significant partnerships that substantially affect its revenue model.

Portillo's Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Portillo's demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability metrics. The balance sheet shows a balanced leverage position, but careful management of debt and capital expenditures is necessary to maintain stability and cash flow health.

Income Statement

Portillo's exhibits strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) increase of 6.0% from the previous year. The gross profit margin has improved to 42.8% from 38.8% in 2022, showing enhanced cost efficiency. Net profit margin stands at 3.9% TTM, which is a positive turn from previous losses, indicating better profitability management. However, the EBITDA margin at 13.0% suggests room for improving operating efficiencies compared to industry standards.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.50 TTM, indicating a balanced leverage position relative to equity. Return on Equity (ROE) has improved to 6.9% TTM, reflecting better utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 27.1% TTM, which suggests a stable capital structure but indicates potential risk if debt levels increase.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.48 TTM highlights strong cash generation relative to net profits. Free cash flow growth rate is negative at -17.6% TTM, mainly due to increased capital expenditures, which could impact cash reserves if not managed carefully. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.29 TTM, demonstrating some reliance on free cash flow to support net income.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	710.55M	679.90M	587.10M	534.95M	455.47M
Gross Profit	492.83M	275.17M	132.51M	142.08M	121.94M
EBITDA	94.79M	79.85M	61.50M	52.78M	81.22M
Net Income	29.52M	18.42M	10.85M	-54.00M	-8.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.50B	1.39B	1.28B	999.57M	910.22M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.88M	10.44M	44.43M	39.26M	41.21M
Total Debt	596.23M	550.41M	523.60M	319.15M	469.70M
Total Liabilities	1.01B	925.43M	847.18M	576.17M	769.51M
Stockholders Equity	401.06M	322.38M	256.34M	171.26M	140.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.85M	-17.14M	9.83M	6.69M	36.82M
Operating Cash Flow	98.04M	70.78M	56.89M	42.87M	58.27M
Investing Cash Flow	-88.11M	-87.84M	-47.02M	-36.26M	-21.42M
Financing Cash Flow	2.51M	-16.93M	-4.71M	-8.78M	-18.05M

Portillo's Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 11.48
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PTLO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.52, below the 50-day MA of 11.75, and below the 200-day MA of 11.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PTLO.

Portillo's Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	74 Outperform	$3.39B	21.51	46.60%	1.58%	4.42%	48.23%
PTLO	72 Outperform	$858.88M	26.56	7.37%	―	4.57%	6.89%
CBRL	71 Outperform	$1.52B	26.45	12.90%	1.74%	2.84%	-4.44%
FWRG	69 Neutral	$1.12B	105.28	1.86%	―	14.43%	-53.71%
BJRI	66 Neutral	$899.89M	43.33	6.01%	―	2.91%	-4.86%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$17.32B	10.90	-7.25%	3.10%	1.66%	-25.40%
PZZA	57 Neutral	$1.49B	19.29	-20.16%	4.04%	-2.77%	4.01%

Portillo's Corporate Events

Portillo’s Appoints Eugene Lee to Board of Directors

On June 16, 2025, Portillo’s announced the appointment of Eugene I. Lee, Jr., a seasoned leader in the restaurant industry, to its Board of Directors. Mr. Lee, who previously served as CEO of Darden Restaurants, is expected to bring valuable expertise in operations and growth strategy to Portillo’s. His appointment aligns with Portillo’s cooperation agreement and is supported by Engaged Capital, LLC, highlighting the company’s focus on continued growth and value creation for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PTLO) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Portillo’s stock, see the PTLO Stock Forecast page.

Portillo’s Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting, Elects Directors

On June 10, 2025, Portillo’s Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where eight directors were elected to serve until the next annual meeting in 2026. Shareholders approved the compensation of the company’s Named Executive Officers and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for fiscal year 2025. A shareholder proposal regarding stockholders’ ability to call special meetings was rejected. The company had previously announced a cooperation agreement with Engaged Capital, LLC on April 28, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (PTLO) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Portillo’s stock, see the PTLO Stock Forecast page.

Portillo’s Reports Q1 Revenue Growth Amid Expansion Plans

Portillo’s Inc. reported its financial results for the first quarter ended March 30, 2025, showing a 6.4% increase in total revenue to $176.4 million, primarily due to new restaurant openings and a rise in same-restaurant sales. Despite facing challenging macro conditions, the company managed to improve operating income slightly to $10.4 million, though net income decreased by $1.4 million to $4.0 million. The company is focusing on strategies to drive traffic and improve margins, including the launch of a loyalty program and testing breakfast offerings. Portillo’s plans to open 12 new restaurants in 2025, targeting expansion in the Sunbelt region.

Portillo’s Announces New Board Director Appointment

On April 28, 2025, Portillo’s Inc. announced a cooperation agreement with Engaged Capital to appoint a new director with restaurant operating experience to its Board. This agreement aims to enhance the Board’s expertise and drive strategic initiatives to improve shareholder value, while Engaged Capital has agreed to certain standstill and voting commitments.