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Portillo's
(NASDAQ:PTLO)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-15.40% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/30/26
PTLO’s score is held back primarily by weakening profitability and inconsistent cash generation (negative free cash flow) alongside a still debt-heavy balance sheet. The earnings call was constructive on cash improvement, loyalty, and hedging discipline, but near-term margin and cost pressures plus promotional/lapping headwinds remain significant. Valuation is roughly middle-of-the-road (P/E ~20.6) with no dividend support, and technical signals are unavailable, limiting evidence of a favorable trend.
Positive Factors
Consistent revenue growth and unit expansion
Multi-year top-line growth driven by new-unit openings shows the brand can scale revenue via unit economics and site growth. Ongoing expansion (DFW airport, downtown Chicago, multi-year openings plan) provides a structural growth path that supports long-term revenue diversification and market penetration.
Negative Factors
Significant margin compression
Sharp declines in gross and net margins reflect rising commodity, labor and operating costs plus promotional activity and weaker mix. Persistent margin erosion undermines profitability and operational leverage, making it harder to convert revenue growth into durable earnings without structural cost or pricing fixes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent revenue growth and unit expansion
Multi-year top-line growth driven by new-unit openings shows the brand can scale revenue via unit economics and site growth. Ongoing expansion (DFW airport, downtown Chicago, multi-year openings plan) provides a structural growth path that supports long-term revenue diversification and market penetration.
Read all positive factors
Portillo's Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Tracks the total number of restaurants, indicating the company’s expansion efforts and market penetration.
Tracks the total number of restaurants, indicating the company’s expansion efforts and market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPortillo's (PTLO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$377.51M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.6
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth2.37%
EPS Growth-49.32%
CountryUS
Employees8,512
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding72,380,960
10 Day Avg. Volume1,481,950
30 Day Avg. Volume1,871,144
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.40
Price to Book (P/B)0.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio-17.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.57
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.91Price Target Upside-0.06% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$775.90M
Portillo's Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Portillo's Inc., along with its affiliated companies, owns and operates a network of quick-service and fast-casual restaurants throughout the United States. The company's diverse menu prominently features classic Chicago-style hot dogs and sausage...
How the Company Makes Money
Portillo’s primarily makes money by selling food and beverages to customers at its company-operated restaurants. Revenue is generated per transaction across multiple ordering occasions and channels, including in-restaurant dining, drive-thru, take...
Portillo's Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed picture: top-line revenue growth (+3.5%), improved transactions and a notable jump in operating cash (+85.8%) and loyalty penetration were positives, along with steps to tighten development discipline and commodity hedging. However, the quarter showed margin compression (restaurant-level and adjusted EBITDA declines), rising operating costs (commodity, labor, repairs/maintenance and occupancy), near-term promotional/lapping pressures (April ~ -1 point comps, May headwinds), preopening/dead site costs and a CFO transition. Management emphasized a multi-quarter plan centered on operational excellence, targeted marketing and disciplined development. Given the material margin and cost pressures offsetting revenue and cash flow improvements, the call overall was balanced between constructive strategic initiatives and meaningful near-term operational and financial headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth Driven by New Restaurants
Total revenues of $182.6M in Q1, up $6.2M or 3.5% year-over-year; revenue growth was driven by non-comparable (new) restaurants which contributed $7.7M of the increase.
Negative Updates
Same-Restaurant Sales Slight Decline and Check Pressure
Same-restaurant sales declined 0.1% (approximately $0.2M); average check decreased 0.9% while transactions rose 0.8% — lower average check driven by ~1% product mix decline and only a 0.1% menu price increase amid promotional activity.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth Driven by New Restaurants
Total revenues of $182.6M in Q1, up $6.2M or 3.5% year-over-year; revenue growth was driven by non-comparable (new) restaurants which contributed $7.7M of the increase.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said it is "comfortable" reiterating fiscal‑year guidance (but that expectations may evolve) and outlined several near‑term financial and operational assumptions: mid‑single‑digit commodity inflation for the year with beef a key pressure and Q4 expected to be the most pressured, about 65% of beef flats hedged and roughly 30% of the total basket forward‑bought for Q2–Q4; net effective pricing entered Q1 with ~3% carryover from 2025 (roll‑offs of ~1.5% in January, ~1% in April and ~0.7% in June), a 2% selective price action was taken in mid‑April, net pricing was just under 4% in April and just under 3% in May, and they do not expect pricing to be negative in Q2; they expect continued headwinds in May (lapping BOGO Beef) after April comp trends were roughly -1 point. On development and liquidity, they have opened one restaurant since quarter‑end (Frisco), expect three more in 2026 (including DFW airport and a downtown Chicago inline), plan ~4–6 openings in 2027 with any reacceleration targeted around 2028, and emphasized discipline with a cash‑on‑cash return focus; balance‑sheet and cash metrics cited were $24.0M cash, $104M drawn on the revolver, ~$42M revolver capacity remaining, total net debt of $347M, and cash provided by operations up 85.8% Y/Y to $17.6M YTD.Portillo's Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 738.25M | 732.07M | 710.55M | 679.90M | 587.10M | 534.95M |
| Gross Profit | 213.88M | 288.67M | 287.78M | 275.17M | 228.47M | 229.40M |
| EBITDA | 70.76M | 76.01M | 94.79M | 79.85M | 67.53M | 46.06M |
| Net Income | 15.63M | 19.34M | 29.52M | 18.42M | 10.85M | 5.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.62B | 1.61B | 1.50B | 1.39B | 1.28B | 999.57M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.99M | 19.96M | 22.88M | 10.44M | 44.43M | 39.26M |
| Total Debt | 688.58M | 670.29M | 596.23M | 550.41M | 523.60M | 319.15M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.12B | 1.11B | 1.01B | 925.43M | 847.18M | 576.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 470.95M | 467.80M | 401.06M | 322.38M | 256.34M | 171.26M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -8.58M | -18.52M | 9.85M | -17.14M | 9.83M | 6.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.28M | 71.91M | 98.04M | 70.78M | 56.89M | 42.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -89.25M | -90.19M | -88.11M | -87.84M | -47.02M | -36.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 19.03M | 15.37M | 2.51M | -16.93M | -4.71M | -8.78M |
Portillo's Technical Analysis
Positive
5.91
Price Trends
4.60
Positive
5.06
Negative
5.23
Negative
Market Momentum
0.12
Negative
65.80
Neutral
88.70
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PTLO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.35, above the 50-day MA of 4.60, and above the 200-day MA of 5.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PTLO.
Portillo's Risk Analysis
Portillo's disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Portillo's reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Portillo's Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $1.23B | 28.50 | 11.97% | ― | 3.02% | 110.25% | |
62 Neutral | $415.79M | 20.77 | -179.01% | 2.09% | 9.37% | -16.75% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $744.84M | 34.80 | 5.91% | 10.60% | -5.10% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $377.51M | 21.64 | 3.37% | ― | 2.37% | -49.32% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PTLO
Portillo's
4.98
-6.94
-58.22%
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants
58.75
12.66
27.47%
NATH
Nathan's Famous
101.55
-6.17
-5.73%
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands
8.70
-1.25
-12.55%
Portillo's Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Portillo’s Extends Interim CFO Tenure and Adds Treasurer Role
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Portillo’s Inc. amended its agreement with Pamela Smith, extending her tenure as Interim Chief Financial Officer and principal accounting officer through the earlier of December 31, 2026, or the appointment of a permanent C...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Portillo’s Shareholders Confirm Board, Pay, and Auditor Choices
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Portillo’s Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, with 72,160,015 Class A shares and 3,424,546 Class B shares entitled to vote as of the April 10, 2026 record date. Shareholders elected seven directors to serve u...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Portillo’s Appoints Interim CFO Amid Leadership Transition
Neutral
May 22, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Portillo’s Inc. appointed Pamela Smith as interim chief financial officer and principal accounting officer, succeeding Michelle Hook following her previously announced departure. Smith, 59, brings experience from leading a b...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Portillo’s CFO Departs Amid Mixed First-Quarter 2026 Results
Negative
May 5, 2026
Portillo’s reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, 2026, showing revenue up 3.5% to $182.6 million, driven largely by new restaurant openings, while same-restaurant sales slipped 0.1% as lower average check offset higher traffic. Opera...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.