Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
NASDAQ:CAKE
Want to see CAKE full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Cheesecake Factory
(NASDAQ:CAKE)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$67.00
▲(6.89% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by high balance-sheet leverage despite improving earnings and free cash flow. Offsetting that risk, the stock shows constructive technical trend signals, valuation appears reasonable (P/E ~12.9 with a ~1.8% yield), and the latest earnings call supported the outlook with beats, improving margins in the core brand, and strong Flower Child momentum, tempered by North Italia pressure and ongoing inflation/labor headwinds.
Positive Factors
Multi-brand unit growth plan
A clear, diversified development plan across Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child and FRC scales revenue without relying on a single concept. New unit openings expand the revenue base, improve geographic reach and capture share in faster-growing formats, supporting medium-term top-line durability.
Negative Factors
High financial leverage
Very high leverage amplifies earnings volatility and reduces financial flexibility. It raises refinancing, interest and covenant risk, limits ability to absorb traffic or margin shocks, and constrains discretionary actions (M&A, buybacks) if operating cash flow weakens over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi-brand unit growth plan
A clear, diversified development plan across Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child and FRC scales revenue without relying on a single concept. New unit openings expand the revenue base, improve geographic reach and capture share in faster-growing formats, supporting medium-term top-line durability.
Read all positive factors
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.97B
Dividend Yield2.11%
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.9
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth5.14%
EPS Growth8.17%
CountryUS
Employees47,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.54
Shares Outstanding49,685,364
10 Day Avg. Volume1,192,439
30 Day Avg. Volume1,220,483
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.68
Price to Book (P/B)5.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio15.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$65.77Price Target Upside4.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)4.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.92B
Cheesecake Factory Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates restaurants. It operates two bakeries that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retai...
How the Company Makes Money
CAKE makes money primarily through restaurant sales generated by company-operated locations. Revenue is driven by (1) on-premise dining (food and beverage sales from guests seated in its restaurants), (2) off-premise sales such as takeout and deli...
Cheesecake Factory Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive tone driven by revenue and adjusted EPS beats, strong performance and margin expansion at The Cheesecake Factory and excellent momentum at Flower Child, a successful mobile app rollout, disciplined cost control, healthy liquidity and a clear unit growth plan. Offsetting items include softness and margin pressure at North Italia, some traffic weakness at The Cheesecake Factory, modest non-recurring charges, and continued inflationary and labor pressures that management is modeling into guidance. Overall, operational execution and top-line momentum were emphasized as outweighing the principal challenges.Positive Updates
Total Revenue and EPS Beat
Total revenues of $978.8 million finished meaningfully above the high end of guidance; adjusted diluted EPS was $1.05 (GAAP diluted EPS $1.02), with management noting double-digit year-over-year growth in adjusted diluted EPS.
Negative Updates
North Italia Sales and Margin Pressure
North Italia comparable sales declined 2% in Q1 and traffic was negative 6%; annualized AUVs were $7.4 million and restaurant-level profit margin for adjusted mature North Italia locations declined to 14.8% from 16.6% a year ago (~180 basis point decline).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Total Revenue and EPS Beat
Total revenues of $978.8 million finished meaningfully above the high end of guidance; adjusted diluted EPS was $1.05 (GAAP diluted EPS $1.02), with management noting double-digit year-over-year growth in adjusted diluted EPS.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's forward-looking assumptions for Q2 and fiscal 2026 included Q2 revenue of $990M–$1.0B with adjusted net income margin about 5.5% at the midpoint; Q2 modeling assumes effective commodity inflation of low‑ to mid‑single digits, net total labor inflation low‑ to mid‑single digits, other operating expenses ~+20 bps (to support rewards app marketing), G&A ~$63–64M, depreciation ~$28–29M, preopening ~$7M, a tax rate of ~13% and ~48.5M weighted average shares. For fiscal 2026 they modeled total revenues of approximately $3.91B at the midpoint (±1% sensitivity), total inflation across commodities/labor/other in the low‑ to mid‑single‑digit range, G&A ~6.5% of sales, depreciation ~$115M, preopening ~$35–36M, a full‑year net income margin of ~5%, an assumed tax rate of ~11% and shares flat to 2025; development guidance calls for up to 26 new restaurants (≈75% in H2) — roughly 6 Cheesecake Factory, 6–7 North Italia, 6–7 Flower Child and 7 FRC — and about $210M of cash CapEx (some build costs may be classified as operating lease assets).Cheesecake Factory Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.80B | 3.75B | 3.58B | 3.44B | 3.30B | 2.93B |
| Gross Profit | 2.37B | 2.94B | 2.78B | 1.41B | 1.28B | 1.20B |
| EBITDA | 302.51M | 282.37M | 282.90M | 201.70M | 132.76M | 171.97M |
| Net Income | 165.03M | 148.43M | 156.78M | 101.35M | 43.12M | 72.37M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.30B | 3.26B | 3.04B | 2.84B | 2.78B | 2.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 235.09M | 215.73M | 84.18M | 56.29M | 114.78M | 189.63M |
| Total Debt | 2.14B | 3.46B | 1.91B | 1.86B | 1.84B | 1.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.84B | 2.83B | 2.60B | 2.52B | 2.48B | 2.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 459.23M | 436.43M | 443.45M | 318.06M | 292.00M | 330.17M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 171.16M | 155.08M | 107.96M | 65.18M | 48.78M | 145.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 317.92M | 301.28M | 268.32M | 218.40M | 161.93M | 213.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -147.60M | -147.26M | -161.10M | -153.50M | -112.81M | -68.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -70.84M | -22.78M | -78.79M | -123.53M | -123.64M | -108.83M |
Cheesecake Factory Technical Analysis
Negative
62.68
Price Trends
58.87
Negative
58.94
Negative
56.06
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.22
Positive
45.24
Neutral
47.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAKE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 62.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.56, above the 50-day MA of 58.87, and above the 200-day MA of 56.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CAKE.
Cheesecake Factory Risk Analysis
Cheesecake Factory disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cheesecake Factory reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cheesecake Factory Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $5.67B | 12.42 | 123.43% | ― | 11.75% | 40.33% | |
67 Neutral | $2.97B | 12.87 | 38.34% | 2.11% | 5.14% | 8.17% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $1.75B | 15.36 | 32.50% | 3.27% | 4.66% | 42.60% | |
51 Neutral | $2.55B | -3,149.84 | 8.02% | ― | 16.22% | 228.81% | |
50 Neutral | $1.09B | 17.53 | -8.28% | 4.72% | -2.41% | -64.77% | |
45 Neutral | $655.33M | 131.25 | -0.90% | 3.54% | -4.13% | -111.07% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
58.47
5.88
11.18%
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings
8.07
0.80
11.00%
EAT
Brinker International
126.33
-23.75
-15.82%
CBRL
Cracker Barrel
28.85
-25.80
-47.21%
PZZA
Papa John's International
33.35
-5.54
-14.25%
SHAK
Shake Shack
64.12
-53.11
-45.30%
Cheesecake Factory Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Cheesecake Factory Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results, Updates Outlook
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated, a leading experiential casual-dining operator with 371 restaurants in the U.S. and Canada and 36 licensed international locations, reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on April 29, 2026, highlighting its ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Cheesecake Factory Secures New $400 Million Credit Facility
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 26, 2026, The Cheesecake Factory entered into a Fifth Amended and Restated Loan Agreement establishing a new unsecured revolving credit facility of $400 million maturing in 2031, replacing its prior 2022 facility. The New Facility include...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Cheesecake Factory Boosts Dividend and Buyback Authorization
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
The Cheesecake Factory, a multi-brand experiential dining operator with an in-house bakery business, reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on February 18, 2026, with total revenues rising to $961.6 million from $921.0 million a year earlier,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.