Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.84B
• Dividend Yield: 1.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.24M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.87
• Revenue Growth: 4.42%
• EPS Growth: 48.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.93
• Shares Outstanding: 49,528,015
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,253,301
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,235,127
• PEG Ratio: -2.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.86
• 1Y Price Target: $54.92
• Price Target Upside: -4.67% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $64.00 ▲(11.09%Upside)

The Cheesecake Factory achieves a strong overall score, bolstered by solid financial performance, positive technical indicators, and an optimistic earnings call. Although high leverage and specific market challenges pose risks, the company's growth strategy and robust cash flows provide a sound foundation for future success.

Positive Factors

Capital Strategy

The company announced the pricing of an upsized $500 million convertible senior notes offering, with anticipated combined proceeds of roughly $485.6 million.

Financial Performance

The Cheesecake Factory's first-quarter adjusted EPS exceeded guidance and expectations, primarily due to better-than-expected restaurant-level margins.

Market Share Expansion

The company is expected to continue gaining market share with its differentiated, experiential brands.

Negative Factors

Competitive Pressures

Risks include intense competition in a contracting casual dining market, inflationary labor cost pressures, and the margin impact associated with third-party delivery providers.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty

The 2025 outlook was trimmed to the lower end due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

Sales Guidance

Management is reducing sales guidance by about 1% due to potential uncertainty.

Cheesecake Factory Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) is a renowned American restaurant company and distributor of cheesecakes. Established in 1978, the company operates a chain of upscale casual dining restaurants predominantly in the United States. It is best known for its extensive and creative menu, which includes over 250 freshly prepared items ranging from appetizers, seafood, and steaks, to its signature cheesecakes and desserts. The company also licenses two bakery production facilities to offer a range of cheesecakes and other baked products to external foodservice operators, retailers, and international licensees.

How the Company Makes Money

The Cheesecake Factory generates its revenue primarily through its restaurant operations, which account for the majority of its overall income. The company earns money by serving a diverse selection of food and beverages in its establishments, with a significant portion of sales derived from its signature cheesecakes and desserts. Additionally, the company's bakery division produces and sells a variety of baked goods to third-party customers, including retail and foodservice clients, both domestically and internationally. The Cheesecake Factory also engages in licensing agreements with international partners to expand its brand presence globally, further contributing to its revenue streams. Key factors influencing the company's earnings include location, menu pricing, customer foot traffic, and market expansion strategies.

Cheesecake Factory Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The Cheesecake Factory demonstrates solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and improved operational margins. While the high leverage poses some risk, the company maintains healthy cash flows, supporting its strategic initiatives and financial stability.

Income Statement

The Cheesecake Factory has shown consistent revenue growth with a notable increase from $3.43 billion in 2024 to $3.61 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Gross profit margins are robust, reflecting efficient cost management. However, net profit margins remain moderate due to industry pressures. EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, indicating enhanced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, typical in the restaurant industry, posing a potential risk. However, the company has maintained positive equity, and return on equity is moderate, suggesting reasonable returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is on the lower side, indicating a reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow is strong with consistent operating cash flow generation. The free cash flow has shown growth, enhancing financial flexibility. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating efficient cash conversion. The company's ability to generate free cash flow supports ongoing operations and potential debt reduction.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.62B	3.58B	3.44B	3.30B	2.93B	1.98B
	Gross Profit
1.34B	2.78B	1.41B	1.28B	1.20B	746.31M
	EBIT
198.92M	178.32M	108.57M	83.69M	119.97M	88.88M
	EBITDA
282.73M	282.90M	202.90M	174.47M	208.52M	-255.92M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
156.53M	156.78M	101.35M	43.12M	72.37M	-253.37M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
135.41M	84.18M	56.29M	114.78M	189.63M	154.09M
	Total Assets
3.11B	3.04B	2.84B	2.78B	2.80B	2.75B
	Total Debt
2.10B	1.91B	1.86B	1.84B	1.82B	1.64B
	Net Debt
1.97B	1.82B	1.80B	1.73B	1.63B	1.48B
	Total Liabilities
2.77B	2.60B	2.52B	2.48B	2.47B	2.24B
	Stockholders Equity
339.40M	443.45M	318.06M	292.00M	330.17M	506.94M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
113.76M	107.96M	65.18M	48.78M	145.46M	-48.01M
	Operating Cash Flow
280.50M	268.32M	218.40M	161.93M	213.01M	2.91M
	Investing Cash Flow
-167.09M	-161.10M	-153.50M	-112.81M	-68.61M	-50.91M
	Financing Cash Flow
-37.81M	-78.79M	-123.53M	-123.64M	-108.83M	143.69M

Cheesecake Factory Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 57.61
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAKE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.50, above the 50-day MA of 51.42, and above the 200-day MA of 47.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CAKE.

Cheesecake Factory Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	74 Outperform	$2.84B	18.00	46.60%	1.88%	4.42%	48.23%
SHAK	73 Outperform	$5.35B	444.34	2.70%	―	14.07%	-47.47%
EAT	73 Outperform	$7.49B	23.23	314.08%	―	19.80%	117.96%
WEN	66 Neutral	$2.19B	12.15	90.40%	4.92%	2.18%	-5.15%
CBRL	65 Neutral	$1.21B	21.16	12.90%	1.83%	2.84%	-4.44%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$6.98B	11.41	2.80%	4.24%	2.68%	-24.94%
FWRG	58 Neutral	$970.40M	91.22	1.86%	―	14.43%	-53.71%

Cheesecake Factory Corporate Events

Cheesecake Factory Stockholders Approve Stock Incentive Amendment

On May 22, 2025, The Cheesecake Factory‘s stockholders approved the Second Amendment to the Stock Incentive Plan during the annual stockholders’ meeting. The meeting also included the election of directors, ratification of the independent accounting firm, and a non-binding advisory vote on executive compensation, reflecting ongoing governance and operational adjustments.

The most recent analyst rating on (CAKE) stock is a Buy with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cheesecake Factory stock, see the CAKE Stock Forecast page.

Cheesecake Factory Q1 2025 Financial Results Released

On April 30, 2025, The Cheesecake Factory reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, showing a revenue increase to $927.2 million from $891.2 million in the previous year. The company declared a quarterly dividend and announced plans to open up to 25 new restaurants in 2025, reflecting its strong market position and commitment to growth. The company also highlighted its inclusion in Fortune’s ‘100 Best Companies to Work For’ list for the twelfth consecutive year, emphasizing its focus on exceptional hospitality and dining experiences.