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Cheesecake Factory
(NASDAQ:CAKE)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$122.00
▲(44.00% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
CAKE scores in the mid-range primarily due to improving profitability and solid cash generation, but with meaningful balance-sheet leverage risk. Technicals are strong but appear overextended (RSI/Stoch elevated), while valuation is less supportive at ~29.6x earnings with only ~1.0% yield. Earnings-call commentary was constructive (record results and growth plans) but tempered by North Italia weakness and near-term margin guidance.
Positive Factors
Core Brand Demand and Market Position
Positive comparable sales and traffic indicate durable guest demand and strong positioning in casual dining. Outperformance versus the industry suggests the brand, menu breadth and operating execution can support continued sales resilience.
Negative Factors
Elevated Financial Leverage
High leverage reduces financial flexibility and leaves less room for demand weakness, higher interest costs or execution setbacks. Even with improving cash generation, debt repayment capacity remains a material constraint over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Core Brand Demand and Market Position
Positive comparable sales and traffic indicate durable guest demand and strong positioning in casual dining. Outperformance versus the industry suggests the brand, menu breadth and operating execution can support continued sales resilience.
Read all positive factors
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.27B
Dividend Yield1.1%
Average Volume (3M)1.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.8
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth5.66%
EPS Growth14.01%
CountryUS
Employees48,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.83
Shares Outstanding49,760,635
10 Day Avg. Volume1,545,074
30 Day Avg. Volume1,410,122
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.70
Price to Book (P/B)5.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio15.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$90.38Price Target Upside6.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)4.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.01B
Cheesecake Factory Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated primarily operates restaurants. The company also maintains two bakeries that produce its signature cheesecakes and other baked goods. These products are distributed to its own restaurant network, international l...
How the Company Makes Money
The Cheesecake Factory makes money primarily by selling food and beverages to guests at its company-operated restaurants. Its core revenue stream is restaurant sales generated from dine-in transactions (and, where offered, off-premises orders such...
Cheesecake Factory Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive tone driven by record revenue (> $1.0B), strong EPS growth (+24% adjusted), record net income (+25%) and EBITDA (+18%), robust restaurant-level margins (20% at The Cheesecake Factory), and healthy performances from core and growth concepts (notably Flower Child). These positives were tempered by isolated challenges at North Italia (comps down 3% and margin contraction), modest commodity cost pressure, higher G&A and expected lower near-term margins (Q3 midpoint ~4.3%). Overall, the favorable operating momentum, rewards/app traction, and balance-sheet flexibility substantially outweigh the discrete headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong EPS
Total quarterly revenue surpassed $1.0 billion for the first time; adjusted diluted EPS was $1.44, a 24% increase year-over-year; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.41.
Negative Updates
North Italia Comparable Sales Decline
North Italia comparable sales declined 3% in Q2; restaurant-level profit margin for adjusted mature North Italia locations fell to 15.6% from 18.2% prior year, reflecting sales deleverage and higher commodity inflation (down ~260 basis points).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong EPS
Total quarterly revenue surpassed $1.0 billion for the first time; adjusted diluted EPS was $1.44, a 24% increase year-over-year; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.41.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q3 the company is modeling total revenues of $980–$990 million, effective commodity inflation in the low single-digits, net total labor inflation in the low‑ to mid‑single‑digits, G&A of $63–$64 million, depreciation of ~$29 million, preopening costs of $10–$11 million to support six openings, an adjusted net income margin of about 4.3% at the midpoint, a tax rate of ~13–14% and weighted‑average diluted shares ~3–4% higher year‑over‑year (reflecting convertible note and stock‑based compensation dilution). For fiscal 2026 at the midpoint they expect ~ $4.0 billion in revenues, total inflation (commodities, labor and other) in the low‑ to mid‑single‑digit range, G&A of ~6.4% of sales, depreciation of ~$116 million, preopening of $35–36 million, a full‑year net income margin of ~5.4% at the sales estimate, an ~11% tax rate, weighted average shares of ~49.5 million, cash CapEx of ~ $210 million, and up to 26 restaurant openings in 2026 (including six in Q3 and roughly 5–6 Cheesecake Factories, 6–7 North Italias, 7 Flower Childs and up to 7 FRC restaurants), all assuming no material operating or consumer disruptions.Cheesecake Factory Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.88B | 3.75B | 3.58B | 3.44B | 3.30B | 2.93B |
| Gross Profit | 1.80B | 2.94B | 2.78B | 1.41B | 1.28B | 1.20B |
| EBITDA | 318.56M | 282.37M | 282.90M | 201.70M | 132.76M | 171.97M |
| Net Income | 178.62M | 148.43M | 156.78M | 101.35M | 43.12M | 72.37M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.29B | 3.26B | 3.04B | 2.84B | 2.78B | 2.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 195.17M | 215.73M | 84.18M | 56.29M | 114.78M | 189.63M |
| Total Debt | 2.08B | 3.46B | 1.91B | 1.86B | 1.84B | 1.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.78B | 2.83B | 2.60B | 2.52B | 2.48B | 2.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 518.96M | 436.43M | 443.45M | 318.06M | 292.00M | 330.17M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 206.30M | 155.08M | 107.96M | 65.18M | 48.78M | 145.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 354.45M | 301.28M | 268.32M | 218.40M | 161.93M | 213.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -149.25M | -147.26M | -161.10M | -153.50M | -112.81M | -68.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -158.50M | -22.78M | -78.79M | -123.53M | -123.64M | -108.83M |
Cheesecake Factory Technical Analysis
Positive
84.72
Price Trends
89.15
Positive
74.94
Positive
64.63
Positive
Market Momentum
6.26
Positive
60.88
Neutral
14.65
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAKE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 84.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 104.32, below the 50-day MA of 89.15, and above the 200-day MA of 64.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CAKE.
Cheesecake Factory Risk Analysis
Cheesecake Factory disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cheesecake Factory reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cheesecake Factory Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $9.75B | 20.89 | 123.85% | ― | 7.86% | 29.85% | |
66 Neutral | $1.62B | 6.45 | 32.65% | 3.42% | 10.77% | 97.30% | |
65 Neutral | $5.27B | 27.81 | 38.83% | 1.35% | 5.66% | 14.01% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $3.14B | 75.14 | 7.55% | ― | 17.33% | 99.39% | |
53 Neutral | $1.25B | 46.82 | 5.89% | 1.86% | -4.92% | -54.90% | |
46 Neutral | $766.09M | 28.79 | -6.17% | 6.06% | -5.65% | -64.96% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
106.53
44.95
72.98%
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings
7.80
0.93
13.50%
EAT
Brinker International
233.10
82.70
54.99%
CBRL
Cracker Barrel
55.13
2.15
4.05%
PZZA
Papa John's International
23.32
-21.25
-47.67%
SHAK
Shake Shack
73.85
-30.13
-28.98%
Cheesecake Factory Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Cheesecake Factory Posts Strong Q2 Growth, Reaffirms Expansion
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 28, 2026, The Cheesecake Factory reported that second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue rose to $1.03 billion from $955.8 million a year earlier, with net income of $68.4 million, or $1.41 per diluted share, and adjusted earnings of $1.44 per sh...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Cheesecake Factory Shareholders Reaffirm Board and Governance Decisions
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
At the annual stockholders’ meeting held on May 28, 2026, The Cheesecake Factory stockholders re-elected eight directors, including CEO David Overton, to terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting or until successors are chosen. The results i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.