Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.51B
• Dividend Yield: 2.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.87
• Revenue Growth: 4.90%
• EPS Growth: 27.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.68
• Shares Outstanding: 49,841,690
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 982,272
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,027,870
• PEG Ratio: 0.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.63
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.24
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.81
• 1Y Price Target: $59.07
• Price Target Upside: 14.34% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.76
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.74B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $51.00 ▼(-1.28% Downside)

The Cheesecake Factory's stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, tempered by high leverage and technical indicators suggesting potential bearish momentum. The valuation is reasonable, offering a balanced risk-reward profile.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth demonstrates the company's ability to expand its market reach and enhance product adoption, supporting long-term stability.

Expansion and Development

Aggressive expansion plans indicate a strong growth strategy, enhancing market presence and potential revenue streams over the long term.

Operational Execution

Improved staff retention contributes to operational excellence and guest satisfaction, fostering a stable and efficient business environment.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses a risk to financial health, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and weather economic downturns.

Consumer Environment Challenges

A challenging consumer environment can impact sales and profitability, requiring strategic adjustments to maintain market position.

Macroeconomic Uncertainties

Macroeconomic uncertainties can affect consumer spending and traffic trends, posing risks to revenue and growth prospects.

Cheesecake Factory Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates restaurants. It operates two bakeries that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company owns and operates 306 restaurants throughout the United States and Canada under brands, including 208 The Cheesecake Factory and 29 North Italia; and a collection of Fox Restaurant Concepts, as well as 29 The Cheesecake Factory restaurants under licensing agreements internationally. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Calabasas, California.

How the Company Makes Money

The Cheesecake Factory generates revenue primarily through its restaurant operations, which include dine-in, takeout, and delivery services. The company earns money from customers who visit its locations and order food and beverages, with a significant focus on its signature cheesecakes and desserts, which are high-margin items. Additionally, the company's bakery division contributes to its revenue by supplying cakes and desserts to various retail outlets. Key revenue streams include food sales, beverage sales, and a growing segment of off-premise dining options. The Cheesecake Factory also benefits from its loyalty program and partnerships with delivery services, which help increase customer engagement and drive sales. Seasonal promotions and limited-time menu items further enhance revenue opportunities by encouraging repeat visits and attracting new customers.

Cheesecake Factory Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The Cheesecake Factory demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, with improving margins and cash flow. However, high leverage remains a concern, requiring careful management to sustain growth and financial health.

Income Statement

The Cheesecake Factory shows a strong recovery with consistent revenue growth, evidenced by a 13.8% increase in TTM. Gross profit margins are healthy at 69.6% TTM, although slightly down from 77.5% in 2024. Net profit margins remain stable around 4.3% TTM, indicating profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are improving, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.03 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk. However, the return on equity is strong at 39.97% TTM, showing effective use of equity. The equity ratio is low, suggesting reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow growth is robust at 21.3% TTM, signaling improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.42, indicating decent cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 0.50, showing a good balance between cash flow and profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.71B	3.58B	3.44B	3.30B	2.93B	1.98B
Gross Profit	2.58B	2.78B	1.41B	1.28B	1.20B	746.31M
EBITDA	291.25M	282.90M	201.70M	132.76M	171.97M	-255.92M
Net Income	160.81M	156.78M	101.35M	43.12M	72.37M	-253.37M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.24B	3.04B	2.84B	2.78B	2.80B	2.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	189.98M	84.18M	56.29M	114.78M	189.63M	154.09M
Total Debt	2.14B	1.91B	1.86B	1.84B	1.82B	1.64B
Total Liabilities	2.82B	2.60B	2.52B	2.48B	2.47B	2.24B
Stockholders Equity	425.35M	443.45M	318.06M	292.00M	330.17M	506.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	158.89M	107.96M	65.18M	48.78M	145.46M	-48.01M
Operating Cash Flow	320.38M	268.32M	218.40M	161.93M	213.01M	2.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-162.02M	-161.10M	-153.50M	-112.81M	-68.61M	-50.91M
Financing Cash Flow	-20.35M	-78.79M	-123.53M	-123.64M	-108.83M	143.69M

Cheesecake Factory Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 51.66
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAKE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 51.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.50, above the 50-day MA of 49.34, and below the 200-day MA of 53.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CAKE.

Cheesecake Factory Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARCO	71 Outperform	$1.53B	6.23	39.04%	3.31%	1.21%	67.88%
EAT	70 Neutral	$6.47B	15.61	249.07%	―	23.18%	138.17%
CAKE	66 Neutral	$2.51B	15.26	39.14%	2.09%	4.90%	27.14%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SHAK	60 Neutral	$3.49B	80.83	8.83%	―	13.49%	402.23%
PZZA	57 Neutral	$1.34B	36.13	―	4.49%	-0.64%	-60.71%
CBRL	55 Neutral	$596.83M	35.95	3.89%	3.54%	-1.61%	-58.09%

Cheesecake Factory Corporate Events

Cheesecake Factory Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

On October 28, 2025, The Cheesecake Factory reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, ending September 30, 2025, with total revenues of $907.2 million, up from $865.5 million in the same period of 2024. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.27 per share, to be paid on November 25, 2025, and highlighted its continued unit growth with new restaurant openings. Despite a challenging environment, the company achieved positive comparable sales and improved operational efficiencies, reinforcing its market position and long-term growth strategy.