Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
NASDAQ:CAKE
Top Page
Cheesecake Factory
(NASDAQ:CAKE)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$58.00
▲(1.65% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
CAKE scores as moderately attractive, led by improving fundamentals (steady growth, profitability, and meaningful cash generation) and reasonable valuation. The main drags are weak technical momentum and ongoing balance-sheet/leverage sensitivity, while earnings outlook and recent liquidity actions are supportive but tempered by soft core comps and mix headwinds.
Positive Factors
Record revenue and improving profitability
Consistent top-line expansion culminating in record 2025 revenues and EBITDA signals durable consumer demand and recovering unit economics. Sustained margin improvement since the COVID trough supports reinvestment, unit growth and long-term cash generation capacity.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage versus equity
Leverage above preferred levels for a cyclical consumer business limits financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to sales volatility. Covenants on credit facilities and modest OCF-to-debt ratios imply deleveraging will be gradual, raising refinancing risk if trends weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record revenue and improving profitability
Consistent top-line expansion culminating in record 2025 revenues and EBITDA signals durable consumer demand and recovering unit economics. Sustained margin improvement since the COVID trough supports reinvestment, unit growth and long-term cash generation capacity.
Read all positive factors
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.84B
Dividend Yield2.11%
Average Volume (3M)1.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.7
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth4.90%
EPS Growth27.14%
CountryUS
Employees47,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.00
Shares Outstanding49,859,093
10 Day Avg. Volume1,123,297
30 Day Avg. Volume1,308,642
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.68
Price to Book (P/B)5.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio15.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.70
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.64Price Target Upside9.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)4.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.91B
Cheesecake Factory Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates restaurants. It operates two bakeries that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retai...
How the Company Makes Money
CAKE makes money primarily through restaurant sales generated by company-operated locations. Revenue is driven by (1) on-premise dining (food and beverage sales from guests seated in its restaurants), (2) off-premise sales such as takeout and deli...
Cheesecake Factory Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a generally positive picture: record annual results (revenues, adjusted EBITDA, EPS) alongside strong concept-level performance (notably Flower Child and FRC), continued unit growth, healthy liquidity and expanded shareholder returns. Offsetting risks included comparable sales declines at the core Cheesecake Factory and North Italia, mix headwinds from new lower-price menu items, one-time impairment and gift card-related charges, weather disruptions and a near-term debt maturity. Management provided constructive 2026 development and financial assumptions and indicated confidence in operational execution and digital investments.Positive Updates
Record Annual Financial Performance
Fiscal 2025 total revenues of $3.75 billion, up 5% year-over-year; adjusted diluted EPS increased 10% to $3.77; record adjusted EBITDA of $354 million.
Negative Updates
Comparable Sales Pressure at Core Brand
The Cheesecake Factory comparable sales declined 2.2% in Q4 (down from +0.3% in Q3), reflecting continued traffic/mix pressure versus last year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Financial Performance
Fiscal 2025 total revenues of $3.75 billion, up 5% year-over-year; adjusted diluted EPS increased 10% to $3.77; record adjusted EBITDA of $354 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided Q1 2026 assumptions of total revenues of $955M–$970M (including an estimated ~1% net weather drag and four early‑Q1 restaurant closures), effective commodity inflation in the low single digits, net total labor inflation in the low‑ to mid‑single digits, G&A of ~$63M–$64M, depreciation of ~$28M, preopening expense of ~$4M–$5M, adjusted net income margin of about 5% at the midpoint, a modeled tax rate of ~5%–6% and weighted average shares of ~48.5M. For fiscal 2026 the company is modeling approximately $3.9B of total revenues (±1%), total inflation (commodity, labor and other) in the low‑ to mid‑single‑digit range, G&A of ~6.5% of sales, depreciation of ~$115M, preopening of ~$35M–$36M, a full‑year net income margin around 5%, a ~10% tax rate and roughly flat shares, with up to 26 new restaurant openings (~6 Cheesecake Factory, 6–7 North Italia, 6–7 Flower Child and 7 FRC) (≈75% of openings expected in H2) and about $210M of cash CapEx planned.Cheesecake Factory Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.75B | 3.58B | 3.44B | 3.30B | 2.93B |
| Gross Profit | 2.94B | 2.78B | 1.41B | 1.28B | 1.20B |
| EBITDA | 282.37M | 282.90M | 201.70M | 132.76M | 171.97M |
| Net Income | 148.43M | 156.78M | 101.35M | 43.12M | 72.37M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.26B | 3.04B | 2.84B | 2.78B | 2.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 215.73M | 84.18M | 56.29M | 114.78M | 189.63M |
| Total Debt | 3.46B | 1.91B | 1.86B | 1.84B | 1.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.83B | 2.60B | 2.52B | 2.48B | 2.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 436.43M | 443.45M | 318.06M | 292.00M | 330.17M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 155.08M | 107.96M | 65.18M | 48.78M | 145.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 301.28M | 268.32M | 218.40M | 161.93M | 213.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -147.26M | -161.10M | -153.50M | -112.81M | -68.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -22.78M | -78.79M | -123.53M | -123.64M | -108.83M |
Cheesecake Factory Technical Analysis
Positive
57.06
Price Trends
59.70
Negative
55.14
Positive
56.63
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.39
Positive
47.63
Neutral
51.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAKE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.21, below the 50-day MA of 59.70, and above the 200-day MA of 56.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CAKE.
Cheesecake Factory Risk Analysis
Cheesecake Factory disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cheesecake Factory reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cheesecake Factory Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $6.52B | 13.13 | 134.24% | ― | 23.18% | 138.17% | |
63 Neutral | $2.84B | 15.71 | 37.06% | 2.11% | 4.90% | 27.14% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $1.76B | 7.29 | 32.50% | 3.27% | 1.21% | 67.88% | |
60 Neutral | $3.94B | 71.38 | 9.14% | ― | 13.49% | 402.23% | |
48 Neutral | $1.16B | 42.31 | -6.99% | 4.72% | -0.64% | -60.71% | |
45 Neutral | $662.71M | 131.25 | -0.90% | 3.54% | -1.61% | -58.09% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
55.78
12.42
28.64%
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings
8.19
1.55
23.31%
EAT
Brinker International
148.41
15.50
11.66%
CBRL
Cracker Barrel
28.42
-5.88
-17.15%
PZZA
Papa John's International
34.90
4.20
13.68%
SHAK
Shake Shack
92.80
16.95
22.35%
Cheesecake Factory Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Cheesecake Factory Secures New $400 Million Credit Facility
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 26, 2026, The Cheesecake Factory entered into a Fifth Amended and Restated Loan Agreement establishing a new unsecured revolving credit facility of $400 million maturing in 2031, replacing its prior 2022 facility. The New Facility include...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Cheesecake Factory Boosts Dividend and Buyback Authorization
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
The Cheesecake Factory, a multi-brand experiential dining operator with an in-house bakery business, reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on February 18, 2026, with total revenues rising to $961.6 million from $921.0 million a year earlier,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.