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Brinker International (EAT)
:EAT
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Brinker International
(NYSE:EAT)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$183.00
▲(15.33% Upside)
Positive Factors
Marketing and Operations
Traffic increase spanned income levels and age groups driven by effective marketing, value, and guest experience improvements.
Sales Performance
Chili's +31.6% comp sales remain best in class, bucking headwinds from consumer backdrop.
Negative Factors
Earnings Guidance
Shares face near-term headwinds from tougher comparisons/normalizing comps, investment potential, and EAT's track record of conservative initial EPS guidance.
Investor Expectations
Magnitude of 'beat' and guidance revision likely fell below investor expectations, and outlook implies slowdown in Chili's comp to low-20%.
Brinker International (EAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.05B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.9
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth19.80%
EPS Growth117.96%
CountryUS
Employees68,852
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength64
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.66
Shares Outstanding44,451,153
10 Day Avg. Volume1,225,844
30 Day Avg. Volume1,255,011
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$180.14Price Target Upside13.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
Brinker International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBrinker International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership, development, operation, and franchising of casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Chili's and Maggiano's. As of June 30, 2021, it owned, operated, or franchised 1,648 restaurants comprising 1,594 restaurants under the Chili's Grill & Bar name and 54 restaurants under the Maggiano's Little Italy brand name. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyBrinker International generates revenue primarily through the sales of food and beverages at its company-operated restaurants, which form the largest portion of its income. Additionally, the company earns money through franchise agreements, receiving royalties and fees from franchisees who operate under the Chili's and Maggiano's brands. Catering services and gift card sales also contribute to its revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with food and beverage suppliers help Brinker manage costs and maintain quality, while marketing initiatives and promotions drive customer traffic and sales growth.
Brinker International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: -1.24%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Brinker International's earnings call highlighted strong sales growth and operational improvements, particularly for Chili's, which significantly outperformed industry averages. Despite challenges in Maggiano's traffic and increased competitive pressures, the overall sentiment remains positive due to effective marketing strategies and financial performance.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Same-Restaurant Sales Growth
Chili's delivered a strong quarter with same-restaurant sales up 31.6% and traffic up 21%.
Impressive Restaurant Operating Margin
Chili's achieved an 18.9% restaurant operating margin for the quarter, driven by sales leverage and simplification.
Successful Marketing Initiatives
The Big QP launch and associated marketing efforts generated more impressions than the Big Smasher launch, boosting brand awareness.
Operational Improvements
Implemented significant operational improvements, including menu simplification and enhanced kitchen display systems.
Record-Setting Margarita Sales
The marketing team's enhanced Margarita strategy led to record-breaking Margarita of the Month sales.
Positive Financial Performance
Brinker reported total revenues of $1.425 billion with consolidated comp sales of positive 28.2%. Adjusted diluted EPS for the quarter was $2.66, up from $1.24 last year.
Debt Reduction
Repayment of approximately $125 million in funded debt, reducing overall lease adjusted leverage ratio to 1.9 times.
Negative Updates
Maggiano's Traffic Decline
Maggiano's reported comp sales for the quarter of positive 0.4%, with a negative 8.2% traffic impact, despite price and mix improvements.
Increased Competitive Promotional Environment
The competitive landscape became more intense, with increased promotional activity from competitors.
Higher Labor Costs
Labor for the quarter was favorable 140 basis points year-over-year, but wage rate inflation of approximately 4.5% was noted.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Brinker International reported strong financial metrics, with Chili's same-restaurant sales increasing by 31.6% and traffic up by 21%. The company achieved a restaurant operating margin of 18.9% through sales leverage and operational simplification. Total revenues reached $1.425 billion, reflecting a consolidated comp sales increase of 28.2%. Adjusted diluted EPS rose to $2.66 from $1.24 the previous year. Notably, Chili's continued to outperform industry trends without introducing new food or value promotions, maintaining momentum from its Big Smasher campaign. The company's strategy focused on enhancing food, service, and atmosphere, alongside marketing efforts that included the launch of the Big QP burger and the opening of a themed restaurant in Scranton. For the full fiscal year, Brinker raised its guidance, projecting annual revenues between $5.33 billion and $5.35 billion and adjusted diluted EPS between $8.50 and $8.75. Despite macroeconomic challenges, Brinker remains optimistic about sustaining sales growth by focusing on enhancing customer experience and strategic marketing initiatives.Brinker International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Brinker International exhibits strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and profitability margins. The company has a robust cash flow, but high leverage due to substantial debt poses a risk. Overall, the financial health is solid with opportunities for growth.Income Statement
Brinker International shows strong profitability indicators with a TTM Gross Profit Margin of 32.22% and a Net Profit Margin of 6.50%. Revenue growth has also been robust, showing a 16.18% increase from 2024 to TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 9.09% and 12.87% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reveals a high Debt-to-Equity Ratio due to substantial leverage, with Total Debt far exceeding Stockholders' Equity. However, the Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 128.68% TTM, reflecting effective equity utilization despite the low Equity Ratio of 10.07%.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.90, indicating a strong cash generation capability relative to earnings. Free Cash Flow grew by 75.31% from 2024 to TTM, highlighting improved cash flow management. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio stands at 1.17, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash.75
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.42B | 4.13B | 3.80B | 3.34B | 3.08B |
| Gross Profit | 627.30M | 500.10M | 499.20M | 503.30M | 408.60M |
| EBITDA | 400.70M | 314.20M | 325.70M | 351.60M | 226.80M |
| Net Income | 155.30M | 102.60M | 117.60M | 131.60M | 24.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.59B | 2.49B | 2.48B | 2.27B | 2.36B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 64.60M | 15.10M | 13.50M | 23.90M | 43.90M |
| Total Debt | 2.00B | 2.16B | 2.27B | 2.04B | 2.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.55B | 2.63B | 2.75B | 2.58B | 2.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.40M | -144.30M | -268.10M | -303.30M | -479.10M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 223.00M | 71.40M | 101.90M | 275.70M | 140.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 421.90M | 256.30M | 252.20M | 369.70M | 245.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -192.20M | -174.20M | -234.20M | -90.90M | -194.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -180.20M | -80.50M | -28.40M | -298.80M | -20.50M |
Brinker International Technical Analysis
Neutral
158.68
Price Trends
169.51
Negative
157.51
Positive
146.84
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.15
Positive
44.27
Neutral
40.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EAT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 158.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 161.48, below the 50-day MA of 169.51, and above the 200-day MA of 146.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EAT.
Brinker International Risk Analysis
Brinker International disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brinker International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brinker International Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.07B | 18.96 | 41.01% | 1.73% | 4.77% | 38.24% | |
74 Outperform | $12.09B | 28.10 | 33.55% | 1.41% | 15.09% | 31.24% | |
71 Outperform | $7.05B | 21.95 | 314.08% | ― | 19.80% | 117.96% | |
66 Neutral | $4.87B | 243.31 | 4.16% | ― | 13.13% | -25.05% | |
61 Neutral | $16.54B | 10.12 | -9.02% | 3.34% | 1.44% | -22.51% | |
61 Neutral | $1.42B | 10.58 | 26.84% | 3.67% | 0.97% | -22.17% | |
55 Neutral | $1.32B | 17.02 | -20.16% | 4.40% | -2.77% | 4.01% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
EAT
Brinker International
158.68
92.85
141.05%
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings
6.74
-2.50
-27.06%
PZZA
Papa John's International
40.17
-1.22
-2.95%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
182.23
16.53
9.98%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
61.63
26.53
75.58%
SHAK
Shake Shack
115.47
14.15
13.97%
Brinker International Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Brinker International Promotes Aaron M. White to EVP
Positive
May 12, 2025
On May 12, 2025, Brinker International announced the promotion of Aaron M. White to Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, and Chief People Officer. White, who has been with the company for nearly 29 years, will now oversee operations strategy and PeopleWorks across Brinker’s restaurant brands. Her leadership is expected to drive operational improvements and enhance the guest experience, continuing the company’s journey of simplification and cultural revitalization.
The most recent analyst rating on (EAT) stock is a Hold with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brinker International stock, see the EAT Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.