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Brinker International (EAT)
NYSE:EAT
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Brinker International
(NYSE:EAT)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$193.00
▲(13.98%Upside)
Positive Factors
Earnings Guidance
EAT raised its FY25 EPS guidance to a range of $7.50-$8.00, reflecting stronger performance and increased revenue outlook.
Marketing and Operations
Highly impressive Chili's comp sales at +31.4% attributed to effective marketing, value proposition, and operational improvements.
Sales Performance
Chili's comp sales showed a highly impressive increase of 31.4%, significantly exceeding expectations and historical averages.
Negative Factors
Investment Persuasiveness
While the turnaround has driven share gains and margin expansion, the strength of the recovery is now reflected in the share price, making investment less persuasive at current levels.
Investor Expectations
Magnitude of 'beat' and guidance revision likely fell below investor expectations, and outlook implies slowdown in Chili's comp to low-20%.
Valuation Concerns
Despite confidence in the durability of EAT's turnaround, there is concern that eventual comp deceleration will compress the stock's valuation multiple.
Brinker International (EAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.71B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.9
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth19.80%
EPS Growth117.96%
CountryUS
Employees68,852
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength70
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.66
Shares Outstanding44,451,153
10 Day Avg. Volume1,329,957
30 Day Avg. Volume1,736,514
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.64
Price to Book (P/B)22.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio14.63
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$169.80Price Target Upside0.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
Brinker International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBrinker International, Inc. (EAT) is a leading casual dining restaurant company based in the United States. It primarily operates in the restaurant sector through its well-known brands, Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy. Chili's offers a variety of American cuisine with a Tex-Mex twist, while Maggiano's provides an authentic Italian dining experience. Brinker International focuses on delivering high-quality food and a welcoming atmosphere to its customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyBrinker International generates revenue primarily through the sales of food and beverages at its company-operated restaurants, which form the largest portion of its income. Additionally, the company earns money through franchise agreements, receiving royalties and fees from franchisees who operate under the Chili's and Maggiano's brands. Catering services and gift card sales also contribute to its revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with food and beverage suppliers help Brinker manage costs and maintain quality, while marketing initiatives and promotions drive customer traffic and sales growth.
Brinker International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: 5.39%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Brinker International's earnings call highlighted strong sales growth and operational improvements, particularly for Chili's, which significantly outperformed industry averages. Despite challenges in Maggiano's traffic and increased competitive pressures, the overall sentiment remains positive due to effective marketing strategies and financial performance.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Same-Restaurant Sales Growth
Chili's delivered a strong quarter with same-restaurant sales up 31.6% and traffic up 21%.
Impressive Restaurant Operating Margin
Chili's achieved an 18.9% restaurant operating margin for the quarter, driven by sales leverage and simplification.
Successful Marketing Initiatives
The Big QP launch and associated marketing efforts generated more impressions than the Big Smasher launch, boosting brand awareness.
Operational Improvements
Implemented significant operational improvements, including menu simplification and enhanced kitchen display systems.
Record-Setting Margarita Sales
The marketing team's enhanced Margarita strategy led to record-breaking Margarita of the Month sales.
Positive Financial Performance
Brinker reported total revenues of $1.425 billion with consolidated comp sales of positive 28.2%. Adjusted diluted EPS for the quarter was $2.66, up from $1.24 last year.
Debt Reduction
Repayment of approximately $125 million in funded debt, reducing overall lease adjusted leverage ratio to 1.9 times.
Negative Updates
Maggiano's Traffic Decline
Maggiano's reported comp sales for the quarter of positive 0.4%, with a negative 8.2% traffic impact, despite price and mix improvements.
Increased Competitive Promotional Environment
The competitive landscape became more intense, with increased promotional activity from competitors.
Higher Labor Costs
Labor for the quarter was favorable 140 basis points year-over-year, but wage rate inflation of approximately 4.5% was noted.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Brinker International reported strong financial metrics, with Chili's same-restaurant sales increasing by 31.6% and traffic up by 21%. The company achieved a restaurant operating margin of 18.9% through sales leverage and operational simplification. Total revenues reached $1.425 billion, reflecting a consolidated comp sales increase of 28.2%. Adjusted diluted EPS rose to $2.66 from $1.24 the previous year. Notably, Chili's continued to outperform industry trends without introducing new food or value promotions, maintaining momentum from its Big Smasher campaign. The company's strategy focused on enhancing food, service, and atmosphere, alongside marketing efforts that included the launch of the Big QP burger and the opening of a themed restaurant in Scranton. For the full fiscal year, Brinker raised its guidance, projecting annual revenues between $5.33 billion and $5.35 billion and adjusted diluted EPS between $8.50 and $8.75. Despite macroeconomic challenges, Brinker remains optimistic about sustaining sales growth by focusing on enhancing customer experience and strategic marketing initiatives.Brinker International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Brinker International shows strong revenue growth and profitability with healthy cash flows, supported by efficient operations. However, the high debt levels are a significant risk, necessitating careful management to sustain financial health. The positive shift in equity indicates improved balance sheet strength, though further progress is needed.Income Statement
Brinker International demonstrates solid revenue growth with a notable increase of 26.4% in total revenue from 2020 to TTM 2024. The gross profit margin in TTM 2024 is robust at 36.6%, supported by a steady net profit margin of 5.4%. EBIT and EBITDA margins stand at 8.1% and 11.6% respectively, indicating efficient operations. However, the annual growth rate in revenue showed fluctuations, requiring attention to sustainability.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio in TTM 2024 is high at 14.1, reflecting considerable leverage, which poses a potential risk. Nevertheless, the equity ratio improved to 5.1% from negative values in previous years, signifying a gradual strengthening of the balance sheet. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 200%, but largely due to the small equity base.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 2.1 in TTM 2024, indicating robust cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow rose significantly with a growth rate of 51.3% from the previous period, enhancing financial flexibility. Yet, high capital expenditures might impact future cash flow stability.70
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 | Jun 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 5.13B | 4.42B | 4.13B | 3.80B | 3.34B | 3.08B | Gross Profit |
| 1.65B | 627.30M | 500.10M | 499.20M | 503.30M | 408.60M | EBIT |
| 466.10M | 229.60M | 144.40M | 159.50M | 199.30M | 103.00M | EBITDA |
| 660.50M | 400.70M | 314.20M | 325.70M | 351.60M | 226.80M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 333.40M | 155.30M | 102.60M | 117.60M | 131.60M | 24.40M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 0.00 | 64.60M | 15.10M | 13.50M | 23.90M | 43.90M | Total Assets |
| 2.57B | 2.59B | 2.49B | 2.48B | 2.27B | 2.36B | Total Debt |
| 1.72B | 2.00B | 2.16B | 2.27B | 2.04B | 2.40B | Net Debt |
| 1.70B | 1.93B | 2.15B | 2.26B | 2.02B | 2.36B | Total Liabilities |
| 2.31B | 2.55B | 2.63B | 2.75B | 2.58B | 2.84B | Stockholders Equity |
| 259.00M | 39.40M | -144.30M | -268.10M | -303.30M | -479.10M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 391.10M | 223.00M | 71.40M | 101.90M | 275.70M | 140.50M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 634.50M | 421.90M | 256.30M | 252.20M | 369.70M | 245.00M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -239.60M | -192.20M | -174.20M | -234.20M | -90.90M | -194.00M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -392.90M | -180.20M | -80.50M | -28.40M | -298.80M | -20.50M |
Brinker International Technical Analysis
Positive
169.33
Price Trends
150.01
Positive
152.89
Positive
127.48
Positive
Market Momentum
7.37
Negative
61.99
Neutral
82.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 169.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 156.60, above the 50-day MA of 150.01, and above the 200-day MA of 127.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EAT.
Brinker International Risk Analysis
Brinker International disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brinker International reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brinker International Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $13.00B | 30.21 | 33.55% | 1.29% | 15.09% | 31.24% | |
74 Outperform | $2.79B | 17.71 | 46.60% | 1.89% | 4.42% | 48.23% | |
73 Outperform | $5.44B | 441.87 | 2.70% | ― | 14.07% | -47.47% | |
73 Outperform | $7.71B | 23.94 | 314.08% | ― | 19.80% | 117.96% | |
64 Neutral | $1.55B | 11.56 | 26.84% | 3.28% | 0.97% | -22.17% | |
62 Neutral | $6.94B | 11.29 | 2.95% | 3.87% | 2.70% | -24.49% | |
62 Neutral | $1.54B | 20.13 | -20.16% | 3.91% | -2.77% | 4.01% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
EAT
Brinker International
169.33
96.92
133.85%
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings
7.52
-2.06
-21.50%
PZZA
Papa John's International
47.51
2.34
5.18%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
191.68
24.54
14.68%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
56.70
18.36
47.89%
SHAK
Shake Shack
128.36
34.96
37.43%
Brinker International Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Brinker International Promotes Aaron M. White to EVP
Positive
May 12, 2025
On May 12, 2025, Brinker International announced the promotion of Aaron M. White to Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, and Chief People Officer. White, who has been with the company for nearly 29 years, will now oversee operations strategy and PeopleWorks across Brinker’s restaurant brands. Her leadership is expected to drive operational improvements and enhance the guest experience, continuing the company’s journey of simplification and cultural revitalization.
The most recent analyst rating on (EAT) stock is a Hold with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brinker International stock, see the EAT Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.