Brinker International (EAT)
NYSE:EAT
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Brinker International
(NYSE:EAT)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$159.00
▲(8.19% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven by improved profitability and strong cash generation, reinforced by a positive earnings call with raised guidance and ongoing buybacks. Offsetting this are balance-sheet leverage (high debt-to-equity) and weaker near-term technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is reasonable on P/E, but no dividend yield is available to add support.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Brinker's materially improved operating cash flow and ~$456M TTM free cash flow create durable internal funding for reimages, capex and buybacks. Consistent FCF coverage of earnings supports investment flexibility and shareholder returns across restaurant cycles.
Negative Factors
High financial leverage
Elevated leverage materially limits Brinker’s financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to traffic or cost shocks. High debt burdens constrain the ability to fund turnarounds, absorb commodity swings, or increase capital intensity without pressuring cash flow or requiring tougher trade-offs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Brinker's materially improved operating cash flow and ~$456M TTM free cash flow create durable internal funding for reimages, capex and buybacks. Consistent FCF coverage of earnings supports investment flexibility and shareholder returns across restaurant cycles.
Read all positive factors
Brinker International (EAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.40B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth23.18%
EPS Growth138.17%
CountryUS
Employees68,852
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.87
Shares Outstanding43,550,327
10 Day Avg. Volume1,222,374
30 Day Avg. Volume1,217,618
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)21.24
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio19.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$188.53Price Target Upside28.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)10.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.81B
Brinker International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Brinker International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership, development, operation, and franchising of casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Chili's and...
How the Company Makes Money
Brinker International generates revenue primarily through the operation of its restaurant chains. The company's revenue model is based on the sale of food and beverages, with additional income coming from catering services, delivery, and takeout o...
Brinker International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Reveals profitability across various business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges.
Reveals profitability across various business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBrinker International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive operating and financial picture driven by strong Chili's performance: double-digit multi-year comp momentum, revenue and EPS growth, improved guest metrics, and successful menu and marketing initiatives. Key negatives include lingering underperformance at Maggiano's, some margin pressure driven by investments and commodity/wage inflation, and a near-term ~$20M revenue/ $0.15 EPS impact from winter storm Fern. Overall, positives (sustained sales growth, improved guest perception, raised guidance, buybacks, and a clear reimage/new-unit plan) materially outweigh the lowlights, though management is attentive to commodity and weather headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Same-Store Sales Momentum at Chili's
Chili's Q2 same-store sales +8.6% (outpacing casual dining by ~680 bps); two-year cumulative comp 43%, three-year cumulative comp 50%, four-year comp 62%; nineteenth consecutive quarter of comp growth.
Negative Updates
Maggiano's Underperformance
Maggiano's comps -2.4% in Q2; Maggiano's represents ~8% of company sales and ~3% of profit contribution and continues to be a drag while turnaround work on service, atmosphere and culture continues.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Same-Store Sales Momentum at Chili's
Chili's Q2 same-store sales +8.6% (outpacing casual dining by ~680 bps); two-year cumulative comp 43%, three-year cumulative comp 50%, four-year comp 62%; nineteenth consecutive quarter of comp growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Brinker raised fiscal 2026 guidance to annual revenues of $5.76–$5.83 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $10.45–$10.85, with planned capital expenditures of $250–$260 million and weighted-average shares of 44.7–45.2 million; the outlook incorporates an estimated ~$20 million revenue hit (≈$0.15 of EPS) from Winter Storm Fern. Management expects Chili’s same-store sales to settle back into the mid-single-digit range in the back half after a strong Q2 (Chili’s Q2 comp +8.6%; consolidated comp +7.5%; Q2 revenues $1.45B; Q2 adjusted EPS $2.87), anticipates continued traffic gains and a fifth consecutive year of comp growth, assumes wage inflation in the low single digits, a tax rate around 19% (Q2 adjusted tax rate 18.8%), commodity inflation in the low single digits for the year but mid-single-digits in the back half, and reiterated capital deployment including Q2 CapEx of $63.7M, a $100M share repurchase in Q2, and a reimage/new-unit cadence (another 8–10 reimages in FY26, ramping to 60–80 reimages in FY27 and targeting ~10% of the system (~100+) in FY28).Brinker International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.69B | 5.38B | 4.42B | 4.13B | 3.80B | 3.34B |
| Gross Profit | 2.64B | 982.40M | 627.30M | 500.10M | 499.20M | 503.30M |
| EBITDA | 797.10M | 719.70M | 400.70M | 314.20M | 325.70M | 351.60M |
| Net Income | 454.10M | 383.10M | 155.30M | 102.60M | 117.60M | 131.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.75B | 2.68B | 2.59B | 2.49B | 2.48B | 2.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.00M | 18.90M | 64.60M | 15.10M | 13.50M | 23.90M |
| Total Debt | 1.76B | 1.69B | 2.00B | 2.16B | 2.27B | 2.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.37B | 2.31B | 2.55B | 2.63B | 2.75B | 2.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 379.30M | 370.90M | 39.40M | -144.30M | -268.10M | -303.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 455.90M | 413.70M | 223.00M | 71.40M | 101.90M | 275.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 737.70M | 679.00M | 421.90M | 256.30M | 252.20M | 369.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -279.20M | -263.40M | -192.20M | -174.20M | -234.20M | -90.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -458.30M | -461.30M | -180.20M | -80.50M | -28.40M | -298.80M |
Brinker International Technical Analysis
Neutral
146.96
Price Trends
153.39
Negative
143.99
Positive
149.09
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.28
Negative
51.19
Neutral
75.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EAT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 146.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 142.44, below the 50-day MA of 153.39, and below the 200-day MA of 149.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EAT.
Brinker International Risk Analysis
Brinker International disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brinker International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brinker International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $2.82B | 15.71 | 37.06% | 2.11% | 4.90% | 27.14% | |
67 Neutral | $11.02B | 32.67 | 28.20% | 1.63% | 14.40% | 12.45% | |
65 Neutral | $8.63B | 96.10 | 12.41% | ― | 28.93% | 69.59% | |
64 Neutral | $6.40B | 13.13 | 134.24% | ― | 23.18% | 138.17% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $5.04B | 41.12 | -24.54% | 0.45% | 15.56% | 79.02% | |
58 Neutral | $3.88B | 71.38 | 9.14% | ― | 13.49% | 402.23% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
EAT
Brinker International
151.59
-6.36
-4.03%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
167.92
-6.79
-3.89%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
56.99
7.19
14.44%
SHAK
Shake Shack
90.04
-5.35
-5.61%
WING
Wingstop
172.07
-47.05
-21.47%
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc
52.67
-17.22
-24.64%
Brinker International Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Brinker Elevates Marketing, Adjusts Executive Pay to Strategy
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Brinker International promoted George Felix to Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer, expanding his remit from Chili’s to oversee marketing for both Chili’s Grill Bar and Maggiano’s Little It...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.