Brinker International (EAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.85B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 19.80%
• EPS Growth: 117.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: 68,852
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 2.66
• Shares Outstanding: 44,451,153
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,402,868
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,329,189
• PEG Ratio: -1.36
• Price to Book (P/B): -11.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.78
• 1Y Price Target: $172.09
• Price Target Upside: -5.33% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $193.00 ▲(6.17%Upside)

Brinker International's strong earnings performance and technical momentum positively influence its stock score. However, high leverage and valuation concerns slightly temper the enthusiasm. Strategic leadership changes and positive earnings guidance further enhance the outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Guidance

EAT raised its FY25 EPS guidance to a range of $7.50-$8.00, reflecting stronger performance and increased revenue outlook.

Operational Efficiency

Restaurant margins expanded significantly, with leverage across operating expenses, labor, and cost of goods sold, exceeding consensus expectations.

Sales Performance

Chili's comp sales showed a highly impressive increase of 31.4%, significantly exceeding expectations and historical averages.

Negative Factors

Investment Appeal

While the turnaround has driven share gains and margin expansion, the strength of the recovery is now reflected in the share price, making investment less persuasive at current levels.

Investor Expectations

Magnitude of 'beat' and guidance revision likely fell below investor expectations, and outlook implies slowdown in Chili's comp to low-20%.

Valuation Concerns

Despite confidence in the durability of EAT's turnaround, there is concern that eventual comp deceleration will compress the stock's valuation multiple.

Brinker International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Brinker International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership, development, operation, and franchising of casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Chili's and Maggiano's. As of June 30, 2021, it owned, operated, or franchised 1,648 restaurants comprising 1,594 restaurants under the Chili's Grill & Bar name and 54 restaurants under the Maggiano's Little Italy brand name. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Brinker International generates revenue primarily through the sales of food and beverages at its company-operated restaurants, which form the largest portion of its income. Additionally, the company earns money through franchise agreements, receiving royalties and fees from franchisees who operate under the Chili's and Maggiano's brands. Catering services and gift card sales also contribute to its revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with food and beverage suppliers help Brinker manage costs and maintain quality, while marketing initiatives and promotions drive customer traffic and sales growth.

Brinker International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Brinker International exhibits strong revenue growth and profitability with healthy cash flows. However, high debt levels pose a risk, necessitating careful management to sustain financial health. The shift to positive equity signals improved balance sheet strength, though further progress is needed.

Income Statement

Brinker International demonstrates solid revenue growth with a notable increase of 26.4% in total revenue from 2020 to TTM 2024. The gross profit margin in TTM 2024 is robust at 36.6%, supported by a steady net profit margin of 5.4%. EBIT and EBITDA margins stand at 8.1% and 11.6% respectively, indicating efficient operations. However, the annual growth rate in revenue showed fluctuations, requiring attention to sustainability.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio in TTM 2024 is high at 14.1, reflecting considerable leverage, which poses a potential risk. Nevertheless, the equity ratio improved to 5.1% from negative values in previous years, signifying a gradual strengthening of the balance sheet. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 200%, but largely due to the small equity base.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 2.1 in TTM 2024, indicating robust cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow rose significantly with a growth rate of 51.3% from the previous period, enhancing financial flexibility. Yet, high capital expenditures might impact future cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.13B	4.42B	4.13B	3.80B	3.34B	3.08B
Gross Profit	1.65B	627.30M	500.10M	499.20M	503.30M	408.60M
EBITDA	660.50M	400.70M	314.20M	325.70M	351.60M	226.80M
Net Income	333.40M	155.30M	102.60M	117.60M	131.60M	24.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.57B	2.59B	2.49B	2.48B	2.27B	2.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	64.60M	15.10M	13.50M	23.90M	43.90M
Total Debt	1.72B	2.00B	2.16B	2.27B	2.04B	2.40B
Total Liabilities	2.31B	2.55B	2.63B	2.75B	2.58B	2.84B
Stockholders Equity	259.00M	39.40M	-144.30M	-268.10M	-303.30M	-479.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	391.10M	223.00M	71.40M	101.90M	275.70M	140.50M
Operating Cash Flow	634.50M	421.90M	256.30M	252.20M	369.70M	245.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-239.60M	-192.20M	-174.20M	-234.20M	-90.90M	-194.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-392.90M	-180.20M	-80.50M	-28.40M	-298.80M	-20.50M

Brinker International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 181.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 181.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 175.38, above the 50-day MA of 158.79, and above the 200-day MA of 134.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EAT.

Brinker International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TXRH	76 Outperform	$12.21B	29.11	33.55%	1.48%	15.09%	31.24%
CAKE	74 Outperform	$2.96B	18.74	46.60%	1.81%	4.42%	48.23%
SHAK	73 Outperform	$5.71B	466.06	2.70%	―	14.07%	-47.47%
EAT	73 Outperform	$7.85B	24.38	314.08%	―	19.80%	117.96%
ARCO	69 Neutral	$1.60B	11.95	26.84%	3.14%	0.97%	-22.17%
Sector *	67 Neutral	¥248.36B	12.95	6.57%	2.82%	5.08%	-11.17%
PZZA	65 Neutral	$1.57B	20.78	-20.16%	3.85%	-2.77%	4.01%

Brinker International Corporate Events

Brinker International Promotes Aaron M. White to EVP

On May 12, 2025, Brinker International announced the promotion of Aaron M. White to Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, and Chief People Officer. White, who has been with the company for nearly 29 years, will now oversee operations strategy and PeopleWorks across Brinker’s restaurant brands. Her leadership is expected to drive operational improvements and enhance the guest experience, continuing the company’s journey of simplification and cultural revitalization.

The most recent analyst rating on (EAT) stock is a Hold with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brinker International stock, see the EAT Stock Forecast page.