Brinker International (EAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.20B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: 23.18%
• EPS Growth: 138.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 68,852
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 2.87
• Shares Outstanding: 43,550,327
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,271,650
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,327,967
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 21.24
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.96
• 1Y Price Target: $188.00
• Price Target Upside: 32.01% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.7
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.81B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $159.00 ▲(11.65% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is driven by improved profitability and strong cash generation, reinforced by a positive earnings call with raised guidance and ongoing buybacks. Offsetting this are balance-sheet leverage (high debt-to-equity) and weaker near-term technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is reasonable on P/E, but no dividend yield is available to add support.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Brinker's materially improved operating cash flow and ~$456M TTM free cash flow create durable internal funding for reimages, capex and buybacks. Consistent FCF coverage of earnings supports investment flexibility and shareholder returns across restaurant cycles.

Sustained Chili's comp momentum

Nineteen straight quarters of comp growth and strong Q2 traffic/mix show persistent brand strength. Menu innovation and marketing driving mix and repeat visits indicate durable competitive advantages and pricing power within casual dining, supporting longer-term revenue resilience.

Clear reimage & capital allocation roadmap

A defined reimage/new-unit plan and disciplined buybacks signal strategic capital deployment. Systematic asset refreshes and targeted growth should improve unit economics and guest appeal over multiple years, enhancing sustainable margin and sales recovery prospects.

Negative Factors

High financial leverage

Elevated leverage materially limits Brinker’s financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to traffic or cost shocks. High debt burdens constrain the ability to fund turnarounds, absorb commodity swings, or increase capital intensity without pressuring cash flow or requiring tougher trade-offs.

Maggiano's underperformance

A multi-quarter drag at Maggiano's consumes managerial focus and capital while providing limited profit leverage. Persistent negative comps and underperformance relative to Chili's imply ongoing consolidated sales and margin deleverage until service and brand fixes sustainably restore vintage economics.

Margin pressure from costs and investments

Rising operating expenses, investment-driven D&A and unfavorable food costs indicate structural margin headwinds. Combined wage, insurance and commodity pressure reduces flow-through from sales growth and can keep operating margins volatile absent sustained efficiency gains or pricing power.

Brinker International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Brinker International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership, development, operation, and franchising of casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Chili's and Maggiano's. As of June 30, 2021, it owned, operated, or franchised 1,648 restaurants comprising 1,594 restaurants under the Chili's Grill & Bar name and 54 restaurants under the Maggiano's Little Italy brand name. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Brinker International generates revenue primarily through the operation of its restaurant chains. The company's revenue model is based on the sale of food and beverages, with additional income coming from catering services, delivery, and takeout options. Key revenue streams include dine-in sales at its chain restaurants, which are complemented by a growing emphasis on off-premise dining options. Brinker has also engaged in strategic partnerships and promotions to enhance customer engagement and increase sales. Additionally, the company benefits from brand loyalty programs and marketing initiatives designed to attract repeat customers and drive new business. Economic factors such as consumer spending trends and competition in the casual dining sector also significantly influence Brinker’s earnings.

Brinker International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong earnings and cash-flow recovery (TTM net margin ~8.0%, operating margin ~10.1%, TTM free cash flow ~$456M) supports a solid operating profile, but very high leverage remains a major constraint (TTM debt-to-equity ~4.65x), limiting balance-sheet flexibility.

Income Statement

Profitability and scale improved meaningfully. Revenue rose from $3.34B (2021) to $5.38B (2025 annual) and $5.69B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with net profit margin expanding from ~3.9% (2021) to ~7.1% (2025 annual) and ~8.0% in TTM. Operating profitability also strengthened (TTM operating margin ~10.1%, cash-like earnings margin ~14.0%). The main offsets are that recent revenue growth is modest (TTM ~1.7%) and gross margin shows volatility across periods, indicating sensitivity to pricing, mix, or input costs.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains the key constraint. Total debt is elevated at ~$1.76B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) against a relatively small equity base (~$379M), resulting in high leverage (debt-to-equity ~4.65x in TTM; ~4.57x in 2025 annual). While equity has improved materially from negative levels in 2021–2023 and was very thin in 2024, the company is still balance-sheet levered for a restaurant operator, leaving less flexibility if traffic weakens or costs rise.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and has strengthened versus earlier years. Operating cash flow increased from ~$252M (2022) / ~$256M (2023) to ~$679M (2025 annual) and ~$738M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with free cash flow of ~$456M in TTM. Cash flow also covers earnings reasonably well (free cash flow at ~62% of net income in TTM), though free cash flow growth is slightly negative in TTM (about -2.9%), suggesting some near-term normalization after strong improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.69B	5.38B	4.42B	4.13B	3.80B	3.34B
Gross Profit	2.64B	982.40M	627.30M	500.10M	499.20M	503.30M
EBITDA	797.10M	719.70M	400.70M	314.20M	325.70M	351.60M
Net Income	454.10M	383.10M	155.30M	102.60M	117.60M	131.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.75B	2.68B	2.59B	2.49B	2.48B	2.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	15.00M	18.90M	64.60M	15.10M	13.50M	23.90M
Total Debt	1.76B	1.69B	2.00B	2.16B	2.27B	2.04B
Total Liabilities	2.37B	2.31B	2.55B	2.63B	2.75B	2.58B
Stockholders Equity	379.30M	370.90M	39.40M	-144.30M	-268.10M	-303.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	455.90M	413.70M	223.00M	71.40M	101.90M	275.70M
Operating Cash Flow	737.70M	679.00M	421.90M	256.30M	252.20M	369.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-279.20M	-263.40M	-192.20M	-174.20M	-234.20M	-90.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-458.30M	-461.30M	-180.20M	-80.50M	-28.40M	-298.80M

Brinker International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 142.41
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 142.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 156.48, below the 50-day MA of 155.95, and below the 200-day MA of 150.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EAT.

Brinker International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	69 Neutral	$3.14B	21.19	33.74%	2.11%	4.90%	27.14%
TXRH	68 Neutral	$11.88B	29.99	28.77%	1.63%	14.40%	12.45%
BROS	65 Neutral	$8.76B	83.96	13.11%	―	28.93%	69.59%
EAT	64 Neutral	$6.20B	14.38	177.80%	―	23.18%	138.17%
WING	62 Neutral	$6.60B	41.81	―	0.45%	15.56%	79.02%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SHAK	58 Neutral	$4.03B	86.42	9.19%	―	13.49%	402.23%

Brinker International Corporate Events

Brinker Elevates Marketing, Adjusts Executive Pay to Strategy

On February 26, 2026, Brinker International promoted George Felix to Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer, expanding his remit from Chili’s to oversee marketing for both Chili’s Grill & Bar and Maggiano’s Little Italy, with compensation aligned through higher base pay, bonus eligibility and equity awards. On the same date, the board also raised compensation for Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Mika Ware toward peer group medians, moves that underscore Brinker’s commitment to retaining high-performing leadership as Felix applies his successful Chili’s playbook to accelerate performance and clarify brand positioning at Maggiano’s, following a period in which his marketing leadership coincided with a sharp rise in the company’s market capitalization.

Felix’s expanded role is expected to reinforce Brinker’s marketing discipline across both brands and support the “Back to Maggiano’s” strategy, focusing on brand clarity, execution and guest experience. The compensation adjustments for Felix and Ware, who have no disclosable related-party ties to directors or other executives, signal the board’s confidence in current management and its efforts to align executive pay with performance and industry benchmarks, with potential implications for sustained growth and competitive standing in the casual dining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (EAT) stock is a Hold with a $164.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brinker International stock, see the EAT Stock Forecast page.