Shake Shack Inc (SHAK)
NYSE:SHAK
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Shake Shack
(NYSE:SHAK)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$59.00
▼(-43.12% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/13/26
The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (downtrend across key moving averages and negative MACD) and only moderate financial quality due to leverage and pressured/volatile margins and free cash flow. These are partly offset by a constructive (but mixed) earnings outlook with continued unit expansion and positive comps, despite near-term cost and guidance uncertainty, while valuation remains demanding at ~57x earnings.
Positive Factors
Multi-year revenue growth & scale
Sustained multi-year top-line growth has built meaningful scale that supports purchasing leverage, national brand recognition and operating overhead absorption. That scale underpins long-term margin recovery potential, funds reinvestment for expansion, and strengthens negotiating leverage with suppliers and landlords.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Meaningful leverage limits financial flexibility to absorb margin shocks or fund aggressive expansion without raising incremental capital. High debt increases fixed obligations and interest sensitivity, constraining the company's ability to self-fund Project Catalyst, preopening costs and opportunistic investments during downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue growth & scale
Sustained multi-year top-line growth has built meaningful scale that supports purchasing leverage, national brand recognition and operating overhead absorption. That scale underpins long-term margin recovery potential, funds reinvestment for expansion, and strengthens negotiating leverage with suppliers and landlords.
Read all positive factors
Shake Shack Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Shake Shack (SHAK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.58B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)57.5
Beta (1Y)1.37
Revenue Growth16.22%
EPS Growth228.81%
CountryUS
Employees12,826
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.02
Shares Outstanding40,350,730
10 Day Avg. Volume2,952,478
30 Day Avg. Volume3,149,450
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)6.21
Price to Sales (P/S)2.26
P/FCF Ratio57.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$86.10Price Target Upside-17.00% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering23
EPS Forecast (FY)1.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.65B
Shake Shack Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shake Shack Inc. manages a global network of Shake Shack restaurants, known as Shacks, through a combination of direct ownership, operation, and licensing agreements in the United States and abroad. These eateries are renowned for their menu, whic...
How the Company Makes Money
Shake Shack primarily makes money by selling food and beverages to customers at company-operated Shake Shack restaurants. Revenue is driven by transaction volume (guest counts) and average check, with sales coming from its core menu items (burgers...
Shake Shack Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a generally positive long-term outlook driven by strong top-line growth, accelerating unit development, improving restaurant-level margins, robust digital growth, and successful culinary innovation. Short-term pressures included weather-related sales disruption, elevated beef inflation, higher preopening and G&A investments, a Q1 decline in adjusted EBITDA, and licensed-market impacts from the Middle East conflict. Management reiterated full-year revenue and margin targets while broadening EBITDA guidance to reflect near-term volatility and investing in technology and loyalty to support sustainable growth.Positive Updates
Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total revenue for Q1 was $366.7M, up 14.3% year-over-year; system-wide sales grew 14.1% YoY with company-operated Shack sales of $354M (up 14.3% YoY).
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Decline and Broadened Guidance
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $37M (10.1% of total revenue), down 9.3% YoY; company broadened 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $230M–$245M citing volatility (range implies 10%–17% growth YoY but reflects increased uncertainty).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total revenue for Q1 was $366.7M, up 14.3% year-over-year; system-wide sales grew 14.1% YoY with company-operated Shack sales of $354M (up 14.3% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Shake Shack's guidance for Q2 2026 calls for system‑wide unit openings of 24–27 (16–19 company‑operated, ~8 licensed), total revenue of $424–428M, same‑Shack sales up 3%–5%, licensing revenue $13.5–13.7M and a restaurant‑level profit margin of 24%–24.5%, with the company planning to exit Q2 with ~4% overall price and ~3% price for the full year; for full‑year 2026 management now expects 60–65 company‑operated openings, total revenue of roughly $1.6B–$1.7B, low‑single‑digit same‑Shack growth, licensing revenue $57–59M (40–45 licensed openings), restaurant‑level margin of 23%–23.5%, food & paper inflation down low‑single‑digits, beef inflation high‑single‑digits, labor inflation low‑single‑digits, G&A around 12%–13% of revenue (toward the high end), equity‑based comp ≈$28M (≈$25M in G&A), depreciation $124–128M, preopening $26–28M, net income $50–60M and adjusted EBITDA broadened to $230–245M (implying ~10%–17% YoY growth); cash at quarter end was $313.7M.Shake Shack Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.49B | 1.45B | 1.25B | 1.09B | 900.49M | 739.89M |
| Gross Profit | 285.61M | 259.80M | 573.92M | 478.24M | 381.54M | 306.52M |
| EBITDA | 181.38M | 181.37M | 120.89M | 111.74M | 51.53M | 44.48M |
| Net Income | 41.19M | 45.73M | 10.21M | 20.26M | -21.23M | -4.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.92B | 1.90B | 1.70B | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 313.65M | 360.12M | 320.71M | 293.21M | 311.23M | 382.41M |
| Total Debt | 937.41M | 902.13M | 865.36M | 771.33M | 720.51M | 686.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.36B | 1.34B | 1.20B | 1.14B | 1.08B | 1.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 525.91M | 525.33M | 470.02M | 443.42M | 412.20M | 409.54M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 37.47M | 56.51M | 35.66M | -14.03M | -65.82M | -43.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 221.16M | 222.35M | 171.16M | 132.14M | 76.74M | 58.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -183.69M | -165.85M | -66.08M | -132.32M | -143.42M | -144.89M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.74M | -17.10M | -9.02M | -5.68M | -5.20M | 242.02M |
Shake Shack Technical Analysis
Negative
103.73
Price Trends
77.15
Negative
84.31
Negative
87.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.68
Negative
40.80
Neutral
81.62
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SHAK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 103.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.88, above the 50-day MA of 77.15, and above the 200-day MA of 87.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.62 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SHAK.
Shake Shack Risk Analysis
Shake Shack disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shake Shack reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shake Shack Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.17B | 166.29 | 7.92% | ― | 24.08% | -57.11% | |
62 Neutral | $416.65M | 20.77 | -179.01% | 2.09% | 9.37% | -16.75% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $1.29B | 8.90 | 130.59% | 8.15% | -1.84% | -17.48% | |
52 Neutral | $240.90M | 6.68 | -3.80% | 9.34% | -17.16% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $2.58B | 57.50 | 8.02% | ― | 16.22% | 228.81% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SHAK
Shake Shack
58.79
-69.73
-54.26%
JACK
Jack In The Box
12.40
-4.66
-27.32%
NATH
Nathan's Famous
101.57
-3.30
-3.15%
WEN
Wendy's
6.95
-3.65
-34.42%
CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc.
88.05
13.60
18.27%
Shake Shack Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Shake Shack Adds Retail Veteran Christiane Pendarvis to Board
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 12, 2026, Shake Shack announced it will expand its board from eight to nine members and appoint retail executive Christiane Pendarvis as a director, effective July 2, 2026. Pendarvis, deemed an independent director, will serve as a Class I...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Shake Shack shareholders reinforce board and approve key measures
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on June 10, 2026, Shake Shack shareholders elected Robert Lynch and Tristan Walker as Class II directors, each to serve until the 2029 annual meeting. The vote strengthens the company’s board contin...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Shake Shack Lowers 2026 Outlook Amid Softer Guidance
Negative
Jun 2, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Shake Shack cut its fiscal second-quarter 2026 guidance, lowering expected total revenue to $415–$420 million from $424–$428 million, trimming same-shack sales growth to 2.5%–3.0% from 3.0%–5.0%, and reduci...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Shake Shack Q1 Revenue Climbs Amid Margin Pressure
Negative
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Shake Shack reported financial results for the fiscal first quarter ended April 1, 2026, posting total revenue of $366.7 million, up 14.3% year over year, driven by $354.0 million in Shack sales, $12.7 million in licensing revenue ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Shake Shack Appoints Veteran Executive as New CFO
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Shake Shack’s board appointed veteran restaurant finance executive Michelle Hook as Chief Financial Officer, with the role effective May 11, 2026, adding deep public company and growth-scaling experience to its leadership ben...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Shake Shack Launches Project Catalyst to Accelerate Expansion
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Shake Shack unveiled Project Catalyst, a broad technology overhaul designed to support its expansion toward 1,500 company-operated Shacks by modernizing restaurant systems and deepening digital engagement. The initiative includes...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.