Shake Shack (SHAK)
NYSE:SHAK
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Shake Shack
(NYSE:SHAK)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$109.00
▲(5.08% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is driven mainly by improving fundamentals and a constructive earnings outlook (growth, unit expansion, and margin improvement plans). This is tempered by a leveraged balance sheet and only modest/variable free cash flow, while technicals and valuation (high P/E and no dividend) add additional near-term risk.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth and scale
Sustained mid‑teens top‑line growth and system‑wide expansion reflect durable consumer demand and successful unit economics scaling. Consistent openings and positive same‑Shack comps broaden revenue bases, improve bargaining power with suppliers, and create a stronger platform for multi‑year margin and profitability improvement.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage / debt-heavy balance sheet
High leverage materially reduces financial flexibility and amplifies downside risk from demand or margin shocks. Debt servicing and covenants can limit strategic optionality (development pace, M&A, buybacks) and make the company more sensitive to interest rate moves or temporary cash‑flow volatility during aggressive unit growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth and scale
Sustained mid‑teens top‑line growth and system‑wide expansion reflect durable consumer demand and successful unit economics scaling. Consistent openings and positive same‑Shack comps broaden revenue bases, improve bargaining power with suppliers, and create a stronger platform for multi‑year margin and profitability improvement.
Read all positive factors
Shake Shack (SHAK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)71.4
Beta (1Y)1.38
Revenue Growth13.49%
EPS Growth402.23%
CountryUS
Employees12,826
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding40,257,720
10 Day Avg. Volume1,120,827
30 Day Avg. Volume1,183,476
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)6.21
Price to Sales (P/S)2.26
P/FCF Ratio57.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda25.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$113.50Price Target Upside9.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)1.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.65B
Shake Shack Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shake Shack Inc. owns, operates, and licenses Shake Shack restaurants (Shacks) in the United States and internationally. Its Shacks offers hamburgers, hot dogs, chicken, crinkle cut fries, shakes, frozen custard, beer, wine, and other products. As...
How the Company Makes Money
Shake Shack primarily makes money by selling food and beverages to customers at company-operated Shake Shack restaurants. Revenue is driven by transaction volume (guest counts) and average check, with sales coming from its core menu items (burgers...
Shake Shack Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Tracks the total number of Shake Shack locations, indicating the company's expansion strategy and market penetration. A growing count suggests aggressive growth plans and potential revenue increase.
Tracks the total number of Shake Shack locations, indicating the company's expansion strategy and market penetration. A growing count suggests aggressive growth plans and potential revenue increase.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyShake Shack Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated solid operational progress and financial momentum (mid-teens revenue growth, ~20% adjusted EBITDA growth, margin expansion, significant unit growth, cost reductions, and digital traction) while acknowledging near-term headwinds from beef inflation, weather-related volatility, and higher near-term G&A/marketing spending. Management presented clear mitigation plans (supply chain diversification, labor optimization, kitchen/equipment improvements, targeted marketing, and development discipline) and reiterated multi-year margin and growth targets, resulting in more positive than negative detail overall.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Scale
Total revenue of approximately $1.45 billion for fiscal 2025, representing roughly mid-teens year-over-year growth; fourth quarter revenue of $400.5 million, up 21.9% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Elevated Commodity Inflation — Beef Pressure
Significant commodity headwinds in 2025 with beef inflation reaching the mid-teens in the second half of the year; beef represents ~30% of the blended food & paper basket and remains a key uncertainty for 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Scale
Total revenue of approximately $1.45 billion for fiscal 2025, representing roughly mid-teens year-over-year growth; fourth quarter revenue of $400.5 million, up 21.9% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Shake Shack’s guidance for 2026 calls for Q1 total revenue of $366.0–370.0 million, same‑Shack sales up 3%–5%, licensing revenue of $12.8–13.2 million, restaurant‑level profit margin of 21.5%–22%, and roughly four licensed openings (with an exit‑quarter overall price of ~3.5% after rolling off a ~1% delivery price); management also flagged an approximate 250‑bp holiday‑timing headwind to Q1 revenue (and noted a ~400‑bp weather impact in January). For the full year they reiterate low‑teens total revenue growth, low‑teens system‑wide unit growth, at least 50 bps of restaurant‑level margin expansion, and adjusted EBITDA growth in the low‑ to high‑teens; planned marketing spend is 2%–3% of revenue, food & paper inflation is expected to be low single digits after supply‑chain savings (mid‑ to high‑single digits excluding savings) with beef up mid‑teens (beef ≈30% of the blended food & paper basket), labor inflation in the low single digits, and G&A expected to be relatively steady quarterly with longer‑term leverage such that G&A growth should be lower than sales by 2027.Shake Shack Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.45B | 1.25B | 1.09B | 900.49M | 739.89M |
| Gross Profit | 259.80M | 573.92M | 478.24M | 381.54M | 306.52M |
| EBITDA | 181.37M | 120.89M | 111.74M | 51.53M | 44.48M |
| Net Income | 45.73M | 10.21M | 20.26M | -21.23M | -4.56M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.90B | 1.70B | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 360.12M | 320.71M | 293.21M | 311.23M | 382.41M |
| Total Debt | 902.13M | 865.36M | 771.33M | 720.51M | 686.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.34B | 1.20B | 1.14B | 1.08B | 1.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 525.33M | 470.02M | 443.42M | 412.20M | 409.54M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 56.51M | 35.66M | -14.03M | -65.82M | -43.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 222.35M | 171.16M | 132.14M | 76.74M | 58.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -165.85M | -66.08M | -132.32M | -143.42M | -144.89M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -17.10M | -9.02M | -5.68M | -5.20M | 242.02M |
Shake Shack Technical Analysis
Positive
103.73
Price Trends
93.04
Positive
90.26
Positive
98.19
Positive
Market Momentum
3.04
Negative
65.55
Neutral
77.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SHAK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 103.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.19, above the 50-day MA of 93.04, and above the 200-day MA of 98.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SHAK.
Shake Shack Risk Analysis
Shake Shack disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shake Shack reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shake Shack Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $413.53M | 31.17 | -182.42% | 2.09% | 7.81% | 4.58% | |
63 Neutral | $10.29B | 109.16 | 8.43% | ― | 23.93% | 153.50% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $4.32B | 71.38 | 9.14% | ― | 13.49% | 402.23% | |
57 Neutral | $1.31B | 9.79 | 140.58% | 8.15% | -0.21% | 0.16% | |
48 Neutral | $223.10M | 2.44 | 7.30% | 9.34% | -6.75% | -118.94% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SHAK
Shake Shack
104.69
22.19
26.90%
JACK
Jack In The Box
12.78
-12.03
-48.49%
NATH
Nathan's Famous
101.10
11.49
12.82%
WEN
Wendy's
7.13
-4.72
-39.82%
CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc.
97.39
17.02
21.18%
Shake Shack Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Shake Shack Launches Project Catalyst to Accelerate Expansion
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Shake Shack unveiled Project Catalyst, a broad technology overhaul designed to support its expansion toward 1,500 company-operated Shacks by modernizing restaurant systems and deepening digital engagement. The initiative includes...
Executive/Board Changes
Shake Shack Announces Board Director Joshua Silverman Resignation
Neutral
Mar 9, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Shake Shack Inc. announced that Joshua Silverman, a director with more than nine years of service, plans to step down from the Board and as a Class II director effective May 1, 2026. He will also leave the Audit and Nominating an...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Shake Shack Updates 10-K, Clarifies 2025 Shack Sales
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Shake Shack corrected a key disclosure in its Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, revising the previously reported contribution of 45 new company-operated Shacks to 2025 Shack sales from $218.5 million to $...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Shake Shack Delivers Strong Q4 and Fiscal 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Shake Shack reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting strong top-line growth and expanding profitability. Fourth-quarter total revenue rose 21.9% year-on-year to...
Executive/Board Changes
Shake Shack Appoints Interim Finance Chief Amid CFO Transition
Neutral
Feb 24, 2026
On February 23, 2026, Shake Shack’s board designated current Senior Vice President and Corporate Controller Peter Herpich as the company’s interim principal financial officer, following the previously disclosed November 2025 resignatio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.