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Shake Shack
(NYSE:SHAK)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$75.00
▲(31.35% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
SHAK scores as moderately attractive: strong revenue growth and a meaningfully de-risked balance sheet are supportive, but thin margins and especially weak recent free-cash-flow conversion weigh on quality. Management’s outlook points to continued cost headwinds (notably beef inflation) and results trending to the low end of guidance ranges, while the stock’s high P/E limits valuation support despite positive near-term technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth & Profitability
Consistent top-line growth with a return to positive net income indicates the core fast-casual model is scaling. Durable demand and expanding system-wide sales provide a stable revenue base that supports reinvestment, unit growth and incremental margin improvement over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion
Very low FCF relative to earnings and a steep decline compresses financial flexibility. With FCF thin, the company has less internal funding for openings, tech and buybacks, increasing reliance on operating improvements or external capital to fund growth or unexpected cost shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth & Profitability
Consistent top-line growth with a return to positive net income indicates the core fast-casual model is scaling. Durable demand and expanding system-wide sales provide a stable revenue base that supports reinvestment, unit growth and incremental margin improvement over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Shake Shack Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks revenue into streams such as company-operated restaurants, licensed/royalty fees, and retail or catering sales, showing which parts of the business generate most income. The mix highlights margin quality and how much growth depends on capital-intensive store openings versus asset-light licensing or packaged-product channels.
Breaks revenue into streams such as company-operated restaurants, licensed/royalty fees, and retail or catering sales, showing which parts of the business generate most income. The mix highlights margin quality and how much growth depends on capital-intensive store openings versus asset-light licensing or packaged-product channels.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyShake Shack (SHAK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.80M
Price to Earnings (P/E)72.7
Beta (1Y)1.58
Revenue Growth17.33%
EPS Growth99.39%
CountryUS
Employees13,873
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.98
Shares Outstanding40,408,150
10 Day Avg. Volume1,747,701
30 Day Avg. Volume1,804,360
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)6.21
Price to Sales (P/S)2.26
P/FCF Ratio57.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$80.39Price Target Upside40.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)1.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.65B
Shake Shack Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE: SHAK) is a fast-casual restaurant company in the foodservice/restaurant sector that operates the Shake Shack brand. The company offers cooked-to-order burgers, chicken, flat-top hot dogs, crinkle-cut fries, frozen custard a...
How the Company Makes Money
Shake Shack makes money primarily by selling food and beverages to customers at its company-operated Shacks. Revenue from these restaurants is generated from menu item sales (e.g., burgers, chicken sandwiches, fries, frozen custard/shakes, and dri...
Shake Shack Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: strong top‑line growth, sustained traffic momentum, rapid digital adoption, robust unit development and healthy returns on new units highlight resilient execution. Offsetting these positives are significant cost pressures—primarily record beef inflation—higher delivery and operating expenses, some margin compression and a year‑to‑date decline in net income. Management expressed confidence in strategic investments (loyalty, Project Catalyst) and disciplined marketing, but expects back‑half headwinds to place results toward the low end of guidance ranges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Same‑Shack Sales Growth
Total revenue $417.6M, up 17.2% year‑over‑year; Same‑Shack sales +3.5% for the quarter (comprised of +2.0% traffic and +1.5% price/mix). Company extended its streak to 22 consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales growth.
Negative Updates
Record‑High Beef Inflation and Rising Food Costs
Beef costs up mid‑teens and food & paper costs totaled $116.3M (28.8% of Shack sales), up 60 basis points year‑over‑year. Elevated beef inflation was the primary driver of restaurant‑level margin pressure.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Same‑Shack Sales Growth
Total revenue $417.6M, up 17.2% year‑over‑year; Same‑Shack sales +3.5% for the quarter (comprised of +2.0% traffic and +1.5% price/mix). Company extended its streak to 22 consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said it will stop providing quarterly guidance and move to an annual outlook for 2026, reaffirming the previously disclosed full‑year guidance but warning the back half will face tougher comps and continued elevated beef inflation; they expect adjusted EBITDA and net income to land at the low end of ranges (adjusted EBITDA range previously stated at $225–$235M), G&A to be 12–13% of revenue, marketing to run about 2–3% of total revenue, plan to open 60–65 company‑operated Shacks and 40–45 licensed Shacks this year, and will continue to monitor pricing actions (about 2% of pricing rolls off in August and 1.4% in December) as beef costs remain up mid‑teens and blended food & paper inflation was up low single digits in Q2.Shake Shack Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.55B | 1.45B | 1.25B | 1.09B | 900.49M | 739.89M |
| Gross Profit | 400.06M | 259.80M | 573.92M | 478.24M | 381.54M | 306.52M |
| EBITDA | 177.91M | 181.37M | 120.89M | 111.74M | 51.53M | 44.48M |
| Net Income | 39.72M | 45.73M | 10.21M | 20.26M | -21.23M | -4.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.95B | 1.90B | 1.70B | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 307.96M | 360.12M | 320.71M | 293.21M | 311.23M | 382.41M |
| Total Debt | 263.17M | 902.13M | 809.62M | 771.33M | 720.51M | 686.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.38B | 1.34B | 1.20B | 1.14B | 1.08B | 1.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 544.32M | 525.33M | 470.02M | 443.42M | 412.20M | 409.54M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.82M | 56.51M | 35.66M | -14.03M | -65.82M | -43.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 213.13M | 222.35M | 171.16M | 132.14M | 76.74M | 58.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -203.31M | -165.85M | -66.08M | -132.32M | -143.42M | -144.89M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -38.66M | -17.10M | -9.02M | -5.68M | -5.20M | 242.02M |
Shake Shack Technical Analysis
Positive
57.10
Price Trends
59.04
Positive
72.46
Negative
81.19
Negative
Market Momentum
3.25
Negative
67.85
Neutral
74.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SHAK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.58, below the 50-day MA of 59.04, and below the 200-day MA of 81.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SHAK.
Shake Shack Risk Analysis
Shake Shack disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shake Shack reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shake Shack Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $3.04B | 72.70 | 7.55% | ― | 17.33% | 99.39% | |
60 Neutral | $7.27B | 115.66 | 7.92% | ― | 24.08% | -57.11% | |
59 Neutral | $401.61M | 20.04 | -104.26% | 4.58% | 12.44% | -15.97% | |
55 Neutral | $335.31M | 4.11 | -3.80% | ― | -17.16% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $1.46B | 11.06 | 109.00% | 8.01% | -0.98% | -31.26% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SHAK
Shake Shack
71.45
-34.68
-32.68%
JACK
Jack In The Box
17.84
0.86
5.06%
NATH
Nathan's Famous
97.60
3.16
3.34%
WEN
Wendy's
7.30
-2.33
-24.23%
CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc.
61.58
-20.72
-25.18%
Shake Shack Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Shake Shack Reports Strong Q2 Revenue Amid Expansion
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Shake Shack reported its financial performance for the fiscal second quarter ended July 1, 2026, posting total revenue of $417.6 million, up 17.2% year on year, driven by $403.4 million in Shack sales and $14.2 million in licens...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Shake Shack Adds Retail Veteran Christiane Pendarvis to Board
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 12, 2026, Shake Shack announced it will expand its board from eight to nine members and appoint retail executive Christiane Pendarvis as a director, effective July 2, 2026. Pendarvis, deemed an independent director, will serve as a Class I...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Shake Shack shareholders reinforce board and approve key measures
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on June 10, 2026, Shake Shack shareholders elected Robert Lynch and Tristan Walker as Class II directors, each to serve until the 2029 annual meeting. The vote strengthens the company’s board contin...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Shake Shack Lowers 2026 Outlook Amid Softer Guidance
Negative
Jun 2, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Shake Shack cut its fiscal second-quarter 2026 guidance, lowering expected total revenue to $415–$420 million from $424–$428 million, trimming same-shack sales growth to 2.5%–3.0% from 3.0%–5.0%, and reduci...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.