First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.11B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 230.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 17.27%
• EPS Growth: -76.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 61,032,104
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,014,817
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,201,995
• PEG Ratio: -2.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.10
• P/FCF Ratio: -91.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.86
• 1Y Price Target: $21.86
• Price Target Upside: 17.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.23B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.50 ▲(5.06% Upside)

The overall stock score of 64 reflects strong earnings call results and positive technical indicators, offset by concerns over financial performance and high valuation. Revenue growth and operational improvements are promising, but high leverage and valuation risks require careful consideration.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates successful expansion and increased market penetration, supporting long-term business sustainability and competitiveness.

Operational Efficiency

Improved operational efficiency enhances profitability, allowing the company to better manage costs and invest in growth opportunities.

Market Expansion

Aggressive market expansion through new openings strengthens market presence and boosts revenue potential, positioning the company for future growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and manage economic downturns.

Profitability Concerns

Low profitability margins indicate challenges in cost management and pricing power, which may hinder long-term financial health and shareholder returns.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative free cash flow suggests difficulties in generating cash after capital expenditures, impacting the company's ability to fund operations and growth.

First Watch Restaurant Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) is a leading daytime dining concept specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch. Established in 1983, the company operates a chain of restaurants that focus on fresh ingredients and made-to-order meals, emphasizing health-conscious and innovative menu items. With a commitment to quality and customer experience, FWRG serves a diverse range of dishes, from traditional breakfast fare to unique brunch offerings, catering to a growing demographic of health-aware diners. The company primarily operates in the casual dining sector and has expanded its footprint across various regions in the United States.

How the Company Makes Money

First Watch Restaurant Group generates revenue through its chain of restaurants, primarily by selling food and beverages to customers dining in or ordering takeout. The company’s core revenue streams include sales from breakfast, brunch, and lunch menu items, which are priced at a premium due to the emphasis on fresh, high-quality ingredients and unique offerings. Additional revenue is derived from catering services and special events. FWRG also benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and distributors that provide quality ingredients at competitive prices, enhancing profit margins. The company's robust marketing strategies and brand loyalty initiatives contribute to repeat business and increased customer traffic, further driving revenue growth.

First Watch Restaurant Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

First Watch Restaurant Group is experiencing revenue growth, but profitability and cash flow generation are areas of concern. High leverage poses financial risks, and the company needs to improve its margins and cash flow to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

First Watch Restaurant Group has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 4.67%. However, profitability margins are relatively low, with a net profit margin of 0.49% and an EBIT margin of 1.23% in the TTM. The gross profit margin has decreased significantly from previous years, indicating potential cost pressures. Overall, while revenue is growing, profitability remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.59 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity is low at 0.91%, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 35.88%, suggesting moderate financial stability but potential risks due to high leverage.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow is negative, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.25 in the TTM. This indicates challenges in generating cash after capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.75 suggests that cash generation from operations is not fully translating into net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.11B	1.02B	891.55M	730.16M	601.19M	342.39M
Gross Profit	376.22M	792.81M	190.12M	139.53M	124.23M	29.88M
EBITDA	79.20M	98.38M	85.36M	52.05M	52.85M	-16.01M
Net Income	2.67M	18.93M	25.39M	6.91M	-2.11M	-49.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.68B	1.51B	1.27B	1.10B	1.05B	1.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.18M	33.31M	49.63M	49.67M	51.86M	38.85M
Total Debt	958.77M	809.55M	606.97M	507.35M	473.97M	637.90M
Total Liabilities	1.07B	918.97M	705.76M	581.31M	542.49M	686.65M
Stockholders Equity	601.31M	595.39M	561.28M	523.13M	504.43M	320.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-29.45M	-12.28M	10.65M	-393.00K	27.29M	-45.34M
Operating Cash Flow	118.35M	115.67M	95.34M	62.94M	62.97M	-18.36M
Investing Cash Flow	-204.15M	-206.65M	-123.37M	-63.11M	-35.68M	-26.97M
Financing Cash Flow	59.61M	74.33M	28.07M	-2.02M	-14.27M	73.31M

First Watch Restaurant Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.56
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FWRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.09, above the 50-day MA of 16.85, and above the 200-day MA of 17.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FWRG.

First Watch Restaurant Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BJRI	74 Outperform	$810.52M	28.70	8.44%	―	3.85%	7.57%
PBPB	68 Neutral	―	―	19.65%	―	-1.72%	-70.31%
CAKE	67 Neutral	$2.38B	14.47	39.14%	2.28%	4.90%	27.14%
FWRG	64 Neutral	$1.11B	230.84	0.83%	―	17.27%	-76.53%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CBRL	58 Neutral	$637.55M	13.87	10.29%	3.49%	0.37%	12.99%
VENU	37 Underperform	$437.46M	―	-40.00%	―	―	―

First Watch Restaurant Group Corporate Events

First Watch Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

First Watch Restaurant Group reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with a 25.6% increase in total revenues and a net income of $3.0 million. The company opened 21 new restaurants and plans aggressive growth, projecting a robust finish to the year with adjusted EBITDA guidance at the high end of its previous range.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRG) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Watch Restaurant Group stock, see the FWRG Stock Forecast page.

First Watch Completes Share Sale Agreement with Barclays

On August 6, 2025, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with Barclays Capital Inc. and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC for the sale of 5,000,000 shares by selling shareholders at $17.70 per share, which closed on August 8, 2025. The company did not sell any shares or receive proceeds from this offering, which was conducted under a prospectus supplement to a registration statement filed with the SEC.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRG) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Watch Restaurant Group stock, see the FWRG Stock Forecast page.

First Watch Restaurant Group Hits 600 Locations, Reports Q2 Growth

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is a prominent player in the Daytime Dining sector, specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings across more than 600 locations in the United States.

First Watch (FWRG) Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. recently held its earnings call, presenting a strong performance characterized by significant revenue growth and positive customer engagement. Despite facing challenges with increased food and labor costs impacting margins, the company remains optimistic. The improved EBITDA guidance and successful marketing initiatives underscore a generally positive outlook for the company.

First Watch Reports Q2 Revenue Growth and Expansion

First Watch Restaurant Group reported a 19.1% increase in total revenues for Q2 2025, reaching $307.9 million, and opened 17 new restaurants, marking its 600th location milestone. Despite a decrease in net income and adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year, the company raised its annual EBITDA guidance, anticipating stronger profitability in the latter half of 2025, supported by positive same-restaurant sales and traffic growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRG) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Watch Restaurant Group stock, see the FWRG Stock Forecast page.