First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.29M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 218.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 17.27%
• EPS Growth: -76.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 61,032,104
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,650,602
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,285,204
• PEG Ratio: -2.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.10
• P/FCF Ratio: -91.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 33.10
• 1Y Price Target: $21.86
• Price Target Upside: 27.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.23B

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.00 ▼(-6.92% Downside)

The overall score reflects strong revenue growth and operational improvements highlighted in the earnings call. However, financial performance concerns, particularly in profitability and cash flow, and technical indicators showing bearish momentum weigh heavily on the score. The high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, further impacting the overall assessment.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth driven by new restaurant openings and positive same-restaurant sales indicates robust market demand and effective expansion strategy.

Operational Efficiency

Improved operating profit margins reflect enhanced efficiency and cost management, supporting long-term profitability and competitive positioning.

Employee Satisfaction

High employee satisfaction can lead to better service quality and lower turnover, enhancing customer experience and operational stability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting financial flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Profitability Concerns

Low profitability margins suggest challenges in cost management and pricing power, which could impact long-term financial health.

High Income Tax Rate

A high income tax rate reduces net income, potentially affecting reinvestment capacity and shareholder returns over the long term.

First Watch Restaurant Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name. As of March 23, 2022, it operated 341 company-owned restaurants and 94 franchised restaurants in 28 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

First Watch Restaurant Group generates revenue through its chain of restaurants, primarily by selling food and beverages to customers dining in or ordering takeout. The company’s core revenue streams include sales from breakfast, brunch, and lunch menu items, which are priced at a premium due to the emphasis on fresh, high-quality ingredients and unique offerings. Additional revenue is derived from catering services and special events. FWRG also benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and distributors that provide quality ingredients at competitive prices, enhancing profit margins. The company's robust marketing strategies and brand loyalty initiatives contribute to repeat business and increased customer traffic, further driving revenue growth.

First Watch Restaurant Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

First Watch Restaurant Group is experiencing revenue growth, but profitability and cash flow generation are areas of concern. High leverage poses financial risks, and the company needs to improve its margins and cash flow to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

First Watch Restaurant Group has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 4.67%. However, profitability margins are relatively low, with a net profit margin of 0.49% and an EBIT margin of 1.23% in the TTM. The gross profit margin has decreased significantly from previous years, indicating potential cost pressures. Overall, while revenue is growing, profitability remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.59 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity is low at 0.91%, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 35.88%, suggesting moderate financial stability but potential risks due to high leverage.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow is negative, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.25 in the TTM. This indicates challenges in generating cash after capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.75 suggests that cash generation from operations is not fully translating into net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2020	Dec 2019	Dec 2018
Income Statement
Total Revenue	841.74M	1.02B	891.55M	342.39M	436.37M	349.77M
Gross Profit	324.91M	792.81M	190.12M	29.88M	87.41M	71.36M
EBITDA	59.49M	98.38M	85.36M	-16.01M	-9.78M	33.83M
Net Income	1.97M	18.93M	25.39M	-49.68M	-45.44M	-12.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.68B	1.51B	1.27B	1.01B	982.08M	664.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.18M	33.31M	49.63M	38.85M	11.12M	16.28M
Total Debt	958.77M	809.55M	606.97M	637.90M	576.44M	195.04M
Total Liabilities	1.07B	918.97M	705.76M	686.65M	652.28M	289.84M
Stockholders Equity	601.31M	595.39M	561.28M	320.87M	329.80M	374.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-11.70M	-12.28M	10.65M	-45.34M	-37.70M	-6.95M
Operating Cash Flow	95.43M	115.67M	95.34M	-18.36M	21.46M	30.77M
Investing Cash Flow	-163.41M	-206.65M	-123.37M	-26.97M	-82.39M	-51.90M
Financing Cash Flow	59.62M	74.33M	28.07M	73.31M	55.76M	30.28M

First Watch Restaurant Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 17.19
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FWRG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 17.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.50, above the 50-day MA of 17.01, and below the 200-day MA of 17.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FWRG.

First Watch Restaurant Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	68 Neutral	$2.36B	14.41	39.14%	2.14%	4.90%	27.14%
PBPB	68 Neutral	―	―	19.65%	―	-1.72%	-70.31%
BJRI	67 Neutral	$739.08M	26.17	8.44%	―	3.85%	7.57%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CBRL	59 Neutral	$707.25M	15.38	10.29%	3.15%	0.37%	12.99%
FWRG	55 Neutral	$1.05B	218.15	0.83%	―	17.27%	-76.53%
VENU	52 Neutral	$558.95M	―	-48.66%	―	―	―

First Watch Restaurant Group Corporate Events

First Watch Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

First Watch Restaurant Group reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with a 25.6% increase in total revenues and a net income of $3.0 million. The company opened 21 new restaurants and plans aggressive growth, projecting a robust finish to the year with adjusted EBITDA guidance at the high end of its previous range.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRG) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Watch Restaurant Group stock, see the FWRG Stock Forecast page.

First Watch Completes Share Sale Agreement with Barclays

On August 6, 2025, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with Barclays Capital Inc. and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC for the sale of 5,000,000 shares by selling shareholders at $17.70 per share, which closed on August 8, 2025. The company did not sell any shares or receive proceeds from this offering, which was conducted under a prospectus supplement to a registration statement filed with the SEC.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRG) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Watch Restaurant Group stock, see the FWRG Stock Forecast page.

First Watch Restaurant Group Hits 600 Locations, Reports Q2 Growth

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is a prominent player in the Daytime Dining sector, specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings across more than 600 locations in the United States.

First Watch (FWRG) Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. recently held its earnings call, presenting a strong performance characterized by significant revenue growth and positive customer engagement. Despite facing challenges with increased food and labor costs impacting margins, the company remains optimistic. The improved EBITDA guidance and successful marketing initiatives underscore a generally positive outlook for the company.

First Watch Reports Q2 Revenue Growth and Expansion

First Watch Restaurant Group reported a 19.1% increase in total revenues for Q2 2025, reaching $307.9 million, and opened 17 new restaurants, marking its 600th location milestone. Despite a decrease in net income and adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year, the company raised its annual EBITDA guidance, anticipating stronger profitability in the latter half of 2025, supported by positive same-restaurant sales and traffic growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRG) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Watch Restaurant Group stock, see the FWRG Stock Forecast page.