First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.08B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 989.49K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 271.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: 14.53%
• EPS Growth: -83.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 61,023,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,697,764
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 989,494
• PEG Ratio: -2.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.10
• P/FCF Ratio: -91.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.37
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.79
• 1Y Price Target: $21.65
• Price Target Upside: 21.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.50 ▲(9.55% Upside)

First Watch Restaurant Group's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and positive market momentum. However, high valuation metrics and financial risks due to debt levels and negative free cash flow temper the outlook. Positive earnings call sentiment and corporate events provide additional support.

Positive Factors

Earnings

The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $30.4 million, surpassing analyst estimates and aligning with Consensus Metrix.

Growth Potential

Improved sales performance in 2025 should lead the company to receive more credit for the compelling long-term growth story.

Sales Performance

The company reported second-quarter same-store sales of 3.5%, exceeding both analyst and Consensus Metrix expectations.

Negative Factors

Commodity Costs

Inflation in key commodities like eggs, bacon, coffee, and avocados has pressured restaurant margins significantly.

Cost Pressures

The company's EBITDA outlook was significantly reduced due to cost pressures, leading to a sharp stock pullback.

Margin Pressure

The company faces continuing margin pressure from high commodity costs and tariff-related cost pressures.

First Watch Restaurant Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name. As of March 23, 2022, it operated 341 company-owned restaurants and 94 franchised restaurants in 28 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

First Watch Restaurant Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its company-owned and franchised restaurants. The company capitalizes on its unique operating hours, focusing on daytime dining, which reduces labor and operational costs. Additionally, First Watch benefits from its strong brand presence and customer loyalty, which drive consistent traffic to its locations. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and marketing initiatives to enhance its brand visibility and attract new customers.

First Watch Restaurant Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

First Watch Restaurant Group shows consistent revenue growth and improved profitability metrics. However, high debt levels and negative free cash flow indicate potential financial risks. The company should focus on enhancing profit margins and managing debt effectively.

Income Statement

First Watch Restaurant Group has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a notable increase in total revenue over the past years. The gross profit margin has shown improvement, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin remains relatively low, suggesting room for improvement in cost control or pricing strategies. The EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate moderate operational efficiency, but there's potential for further enhancement.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating a higher reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks in volatile market conditions. Return on equity has improved, reflecting better utilization of equity for generating profits. The equity ratio suggests a decent level of equity financing, contributing to financial stability, but the high debt levels may still be a concern.

Cash Flow

First Watch Restaurant Group shows a positive trend in operating cash flow, which is commendable. However, the company has experienced negative free cash flow, primarily due to significant capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating good cash conversion efficiency, but the negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests challenges in converting earnings into free cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.06B	1.02B	891.55M	730.16M	601.19M	342.39M
Gross Profit	363.07M	792.81M	190.12M	139.53M	127.55M	29.88M
EBITDA	85.58M	98.38M	85.36M	54.73M	59.71M	-4.29M
Net Income	12.23M	18.93M	25.39M	6.91M	-2.11M	-49.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.54B	1.51B	1.27B	1.10B	1.05B	1.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.61M	33.31M	49.63M	49.67M	51.86M	38.85M
Total Debt	645.70M	809.55M	606.97M	507.35M	473.97M	637.90M
Total Liabilities	947.85M	918.97M	705.76M	581.31M	542.49M	686.65M
Stockholders Equity	596.29M	595.39M	561.28M	523.13M	504.43M	320.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-25.19M	-12.28M	10.65M	-393.00K	27.29M	-45.34M
Operating Cash Flow	110.83M	115.67M	95.34M	62.94M	62.97M	-18.36M
Investing Cash Flow	-211.26M	-206.65M	-123.37M	-63.11M	-35.68M	-26.97M
Financing Cash Flow	75.53M	74.33M	28.07M	-2.02M	-14.27M	73.31M

First Watch Restaurant Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 17.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FWRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.43, above the 50-day MA of 16.69, and below the 200-day MA of 18.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FWRG.

First Watch Restaurant Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	77 Outperform	$3.11B	19.19	41.01%	1.75%	4.77%	38.24%
FWRG	68 Neutral	$1.08B	271.41	0.69%	―	14.53%	-83.26%
PTLO	68 Neutral	$597.51M	17.36	7.36%	―	3.62%	17.67%
Sector *	67 Neutral	¥277.28B	14.63	6.84%	2.51%	5.14%	-22.98%
BJRI	64 Neutral	$759.52M	28.88	7.12%	―	4.07%	-1.24%
CBRL	63 Neutral	$1.33B	23.24	12.90%	1.67%	2.84%	-4.44%
GENK	44 Neutral	$111.97M	36.29	-5.04%	0.88%	10.67%	-181.88%

First Watch Restaurant Group Corporate Events

First Watch Completes Share Sale Agreement with Barclays

On August 6, 2025, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with Barclays Capital Inc. and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC for the sale of 5,000,000 shares by selling shareholders at $17.70 per share, which closed on August 8, 2025. The company did not sell any shares or receive proceeds from this offering, which was conducted under a prospectus supplement to a registration statement filed with the SEC.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRG) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Watch Restaurant Group stock, see the FWRG Stock Forecast page.

First Watch Reports Q2 Revenue Growth and Expansion

First Watch Restaurant Group reported a 19.1% increase in total revenues for Q2 2025, reaching $307.9 million, and opened 17 new restaurants, marking its 600th location milestone. Despite a decrease in net income and adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year, the company raised its annual EBITDA guidance, anticipating stronger profitability in the latter half of 2025, supported by positive same-restaurant sales and traffic growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRG) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Watch Restaurant Group stock, see the FWRG Stock Forecast page.

First Watch Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 21, 2025, First Watch Restaurant Group held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where stockholders elected Class I directors and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 28, 2025. These decisions are expected to impact the company’s governance and financial oversight positively, ensuring continuity and stability in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRG) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Watch Restaurant Group stock, see the FWRG Stock Forecast page.