Cracker Barrel (CBRL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $672.52M
• Dividend Yield: 3.54%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.87
• Revenue Growth: -1.61%
• EPS Growth: -58.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 77,600
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): -0.74
• Shares Outstanding: 22,328,094
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,304,458
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,558,503
• PEG Ratio: 2.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.57
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.48
• 1Y Price Target: $28.86
• Price Target Upside: -7.94% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▼(-10.69% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance (compressed margins and sharply weaker free cash flow) and an expensive P/E relative to current earnings strength. Technicals are mixed with a short-term bounce but a longer-term downtrend, while management’s cost actions and liquidity steps provide some offset but do not yet outweigh the operational declines highlighted in the latest results and guidance.

Positive Factors

Loyalty program scale

A loyalty base exceeding 10 million members that drives ~40% of tracked sales provides durable customer engagement, richer purchase data and a lower-cost channel for promotions. This supports recurring traffic, improves marketing ROI, and enhances resilience versus transient foot-traffic declines.

Improved near-term liquidity & covenant relief

Substantial available liquidity and a covenant change that excludes convertible debt from the tested leverage ratio materially extend financial runway. These structural fixes reduce near-term default risk and provide time to execute operational fixes without emergency financing pressure.

Large integrated restaurant + retail footprint

A national footprint of 600+ locations and a hybrid restaurant-retail model creates scale advantages in purchasing, cross-selling, and brand recognition. This diversification across dine-in, takeout and retail helps stabilize revenue mix and supports long-term margin improvement opportunities.

Negative Factors

Compressed profitability

Very thin margins reduce the firm's ability to absorb cost inflation or traffic volatility; modest EBITDA leaves little cushion for discretionary investment or debt service. Sustained low operating profitability undermines reinvestment capacity and heightens sensitivity to demand shocks.

Severely weakened free cash flow

A collapse in free cash flow from strong operating cash to minimal FCF sharply limits capital allocation flexibility. With little free cash to fund capex, buybacks or pay down debt, the company must rely on external financing or defer investments, slowing structural recovery.

Leverage and near-term refinancing risk

Material outstanding debt and upcoming convertible maturities create refinancing pressure, especially as profitability and cash generation are weak. Relying on the revolver or capital markets elevates execution risk and could constrain strategic options if conditions tighten.

Cracker Barrel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company's Cracker Barrel stores consist of a restaurant with a gift shop. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services. The company's gift shops comprise various decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, seasonal gifts, apparel, toys, cookware, and various other gift items, as well as various candies, preserves, and other food items. As of September 15, 2021, it operated 664 Cracker Barrel stores in 45 states. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Cracker Barrel generates revenue primarily through its restaurant operations, where it serves breakfast, lunch, and dinner to customers. The company’s revenue model is heavily reliant on food and beverage sales, which account for the majority of its income. Additionally, the retail segment contributes to earnings by selling various products, including home goods, toys, and clothing, enhancing the overall customer experience. Key revenue streams include dine-in sales, takeout orders, and retail merchandise sales. The company also benefits from seasonal promotions and partnerships with suppliers for exclusive products, which can drive additional traffic and sales. Furthermore, Cracker Barrel has implemented strategies such as loyalty programs and targeted marketing to increase customer retention and boost overall sales.

Cracker Barrel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak fundamentals driven by sharp margin compression (TTM net margin ~0.5%, EBITDA margin ~3.4%), higher leverage (~3.0x debt-to-equity), and materially reduced free cash flow (~$14M TTM, down ~76%). Operating cash flow remains positive, but thin profitability and weak cash conversion reduce resilience.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show revenue down (-1.375%) with a sharp step-down in profitability versus prior years: net margin is ~0.5% (TTM) vs ~1.3% in FY2025 and ~2.9% in FY2023. EBITDA margin has also compressed to ~3.4% (TTM) from ~5.7% in FY2025 and ~6.9% in FY2023, signaling higher costs and weaker operating leverage. The core business remains profitable, but earnings power has become thin and more vulnerable to small cost or demand shocks.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated: debt-to-equity is ~3.0x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), up from ~2.44x in FY2025, which limits flexibility in a softer earnings environment. Equity is positive (~$429M TTM) against ~$2.15B in assets, but returns have fallen materially with return on equity at ~3.7% (TTM) versus ~10.0% in FY2025 and above 20% in FY2022–FY2023. Overall, the balance sheet is serviceable, but the higher leverage looks less comfortable given the reduced profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened meaningfully in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow is ~$170M, but free cash flow is only ~$14M, down ~76% versus the prior annual period. Free cash flow is also low relative to net income (about 8% in TTM), suggesting limited cash conversion after capital needs and other cash uses. While operating cash flow remains positive, the sharp free-cash-flow compression reduces financial flexibility and increases reliance on stable operating performance.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.48B	3.47B	3.44B	3.27B	2.82B
Gross Profit	1.15B	1.11B	1.11B	1.07B	973.06M
EBITDA	197.33M	156.87M	239.10M	315.07M	366.66M
Net Income	46.38M	40.93M	99.05M	131.88M	254.51M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.16B	2.16B	2.22B	2.29B	2.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	39.64M	12.04M	25.15M	45.10M	144.59M
Total Debt	1.13B	1.20B	1.12B	1.20B	1.08B
Total Liabilities	1.70B	1.72B	1.73B	1.78B	1.73B
Stockholders Equity	461.69M	440.15M	483.82M	511.48M	663.63M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	60.25M	40.69M	125.07M	108.15M	231.77M
Operating Cash Flow	218.90M	168.98M	250.46M	205.25M	301.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-156.70M	-124.33M	-124.32M	-98.50M	78.33M
Financing Cash Flow	-34.59M	-57.77M	-146.10M	-206.24M	-672.64M

Cracker Barrel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 31.35
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBRL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.82, above the 50-day MA of 28.45, and below the 200-day MA of 44.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CBRL.

Cracker Barrel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EAT	74 Outperform	$6.87B	16.37	177.80%	―	23.18%	138.17%
NATH	71 Outperform	$414.03M	18.20	―	2.09%	7.81%	4.58%
CAKE	66 Neutral	$2.89B	17.60	39.14%	2.11%	4.90%	27.14%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
PZZA	57 Neutral	$1.15B	31.02	―	4.72%	-0.64%	-60.71%
CBRL	45 Neutral	$672.52M	40.51	3.89%	3.54%	-1.61%	-58.09%
GENK	41 Neutral	$68.50M	-7.80	-8.89%	1.27%	9.36%	-249.08%

Cracker Barrel Corporate Events

Cracker Barrel Highlights Turnaround Actions at 2026 ICR Conference

From January 12–14, 2026, Cracker Barrel management is meeting with investors at the 2026 ICR Conference, using a January 2026 investor presentation that highlights the company’s operational reset, balance sheet position, and guest-experience trends. The presentation outlines a suite of “decisive actions” aimed at returning performance to a positive trajectory, including back-of-house optimization, retraining, leadership changes, marketing and menu initiatives, and corporate cost-cutting and capital-spend reductions, all centered on improving food quality and the guest experience. Management emphasizes the growing importance of the Cracker Barrel Rewards loyalty program—now approaching 11 million members—as a key tool for delivering value and maintaining customer connection, and reports that key guest-satisfaction metrics and Google star ratings have improved year over year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 to their best levels in several years. Financially, the company ended its first quarter of fiscal 2026 on October 31, 2025, with total debt of about $550 million and roughly $485 million in available liquidity, and in December 2025 it exercised an option under its credit agreement to shift from a total leverage covenant to a senior leverage covenant, effectively excluding convertible debt from the leverage test and leaving the senior leverage ratio at a low 0.3x versus a 3.0x cap, while planning to use its revolving credit facility to retire its remaining June 2026 convertible notes closer to maturity.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBRL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cracker Barrel stock, see the CBRL Stock Forecast page.

Cracker Barrel Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Meeting

On November 20, 2025, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. held its annual meeting of shareholders, where several key proposals were approved. These included the amendment to the 2020 Omnibus Incentive Plan, the election of nine directors, and the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for the 2026 fiscal year. Additionally, shareholders approved various advisory proposals related to executive compensation and bylaw provisions, reflecting strong shareholder engagement and support for the company’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBRL) stock is a Sell with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cracker Barrel stock, see the CBRL Stock Forecast page.