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Cracker Barrel
(NASDAQ:CBRL)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$54.00
▲(78.81% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial performance (negative TTM operating profitability, unfavorable TTM revenue trend, and elevated leverage) and a demanding valuation (high P/E with only a modest yield). These are partly offset by strong recent technical momentum (price well above key moving averages) and a mixed-to-improving earnings call backdrop featuring raised guidance and operational progress, though traffic and margin pressures persist.
Positive Factors
Loyalty & Channel Diversification
A ~12M-member loyalty base and growing off-premise mix create durable revenue channels that raise visit frequency and reduce dependence on dine-in traffic. Member-driven sales above 40% and near-20% off-premise share improve customer retention, data-driven marketing, and recession resilience over months.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
A debt-heavy capital structure (debt well above equity) constrains strategic flexibility and increases fixed obligations. With earnings pressured, high leverage raises refinancing and interest coverage risk, limiting capacity for growth investments or aggressive marketing over the next several months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loyalty & Channel Diversification
A ~12M-member loyalty base and growing off-premise mix create durable revenue channels that raise visit frequency and reduce dependence on dine-in traffic. Member-driven sales above 40% and near-20% off-premise share improve customer retention, data-driven marketing, and recession resilience over months.
Read all positive factors
Cracker Barrel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how different business areas contribute to overall sales, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability for Cracker Barrel.
Shows how different business areas contribute to overall sales, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability for Cracker Barrel.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCracker Barrel (CBRL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.20B
Dividend Yield3.54%
Average Volume (3M)1.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)45.4
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth-4.92%
EPS Growth-54.90%
CountryUS
Employees76,730
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.18
Shares Outstanding22,351,460
10 Day Avg. Volume2,562,921
30 Day Avg. Volume1,503,229
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.18
Price to Book (P/B)2.88
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio22.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.20Price Target Upside46.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.29B
Cracker Barrel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. Its Cracker Barrel stores consist of restaurants with a gift shop. The company’s restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, an...
How the Company Makes Money
Cracker Barrel makes money primarily by selling meals and beverages in its company-operated restaurants and by selling merchandise in its attached retail stores. Restaurant revenue is generated from guest traffic, menu pricing, and sales mix acros...
Cracker Barrel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 09, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mix of encouraging operational progress and notable near‑term headwinds. Management highlighted improved guest metrics (Google rating, taste, service, value), loyalty growth (~12M members), retail momentum and strong cost actions that helped Q3 results and supported raising FY adjusted EBITDA guidance. However, comparable restaurant sales and traffic remain negative (sales down 2.6%, traffic down 6.7%), adjusted EBITDA and margins contracted YoY, and cost pressures (labor, retail COGS from tariffs) and one‑time G&A items were material. Liquidity and a one‑time litigation settlement bolstered the balance sheet, and management is investing in tech and AI to sustain momentum. Overall, the positives around execution and guidance offset, but do not yet fully eliminate, the meaningful operating headwinds — producing a balanced outlook.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Guidance Raise
Total revenue of $797.4 million in Q3; company raised full‑year revenue guide to $3.27B–$3.30B and increased full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $120M–$125M.
Negative Updates
Comparable Store Sales and Traffic Decline
Comparable restaurant sales decreased 2.6% YoY and traffic declined 6.7% YoY in Q3 — the largest operational headwind cited and a key near‑term challenge.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue and Guidance Raise
Total revenue of $797.4 million in Q3; company raised full‑year revenue guide to $3.27B–$3.30B and increased full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $120M–$125M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Cracker Barrel raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, guiding total revenue of $3.27–3.30 billion with pricing in the low‑4% range, commodity inflation in the low‑2% range and hourly wage inflation in the low‑2% range, and increasing full‑year adjusted EBITDA to $120–$125 million (Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $40.3 million, or 5.1% of revenue); capital expenditures are expected to be $105–$115 million (majority maintenance; Q3 CapEx $27.1 million). The company noted a filed tariff refund claim of approximately $17 million (about $5 million received in Q4 and expected to be largely reinvested) and stated guidance does not assume additional refunds. Key balance sheet and quarterly anchors cited include Q3 revenue of $797.4 million, restaurant revenue $658.4 million, average check $15.85 (up 4.3% including 4.4% pricing), off‑premise ~19.6% of restaurant sales, available liquidity $541.3 million, total debt $486.6 million (all convertible notes) and consolidated total debt/adjusted EBITDA of ~2.4x (senior debt/adjusted EBITDA 0x with revolver undrawn).Cracker Barrel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.34B | 3.48B | 3.47B | 3.44B | 3.27B | 2.82B |
| Gross Profit | 1.14B | 1.15B | 1.11B | 1.11B | 1.07B | 973.06M |
| EBITDA | 162.14M | 193.19M | 169.60M | 237.84M | 269.31M | 488.00M |
| Net Income | 26.23M | 46.38M | 40.93M | 99.05M | 131.88M | 254.51M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.09B | 2.16B | 2.16B | 2.22B | 2.29B | 2.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.05M | 39.64M | 12.04M | 25.15M | 45.10M | 144.59M |
| Total Debt | 1.09B | 1.18B | 1.20B | 1.16B | 1.20B | 1.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.62B | 1.70B | 1.72B | 1.73B | 1.78B | 1.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 465.47M | 461.69M | 440.15M | 483.82M | 511.48M | 663.63M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 59.18M | 59.76M | 40.69M | 125.07M | 108.15M | 231.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 194.73M | 218.90M | 168.98M | 250.46M | 205.25M | 301.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -131.91M | -156.70M | -124.33M | -124.32M | -98.50M | 78.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -46.58M | -34.59M | -57.77M | -146.10M | -206.24M | -672.64M |
Cracker Barrel Technical Analysis
Positive
30.20
Price Trends
36.95
Positive
33.25
Positive
32.98
Positive
Market Momentum
5.16
Negative
73.86
Negative
90.09
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBRL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.51, below the 50-day MA of 36.95, and below the 200-day MA of 32.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.86 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CBRL.
Cracker Barrel Risk Analysis
Cracker Barrel disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cracker Barrel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cracker Barrel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $7.62B | 16.97 | 123.43% | ― | 11.75% | 40.33% | |
67 Neutral | $3.93B | 22.37 | 38.34% | 2.11% | 5.14% | 8.17% | |
62 Neutral | $415.79M | 20.77 | -179.01% | 2.09% | 9.37% | -16.75% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $1.20B | 45.44 | 5.89% | 3.54% | -4.92% | -54.90% | |
50 Neutral | $1.18B | 42.64 | -6.47% | 4.72% | -2.41% | -64.77% | |
45 Neutral | $66.26M | -2.71 | -27.46% | 1.27% | -2.72% | -1962.01% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CBRL
Cracker Barrel
53.50
-10.32
-16.18%
EAT
Brinker International
177.71
4.29
2.47%
NATH
Nathan's Famous
101.55
-6.65
-6.14%
PZZA
Papa John's International
35.82
-9.52
-20.99%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
79.18
16.90
27.13%
GENK
GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. Class A
2.01
-1.82
-47.52%
Cracker Barrel Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Cracker Barrel Announces General Counsel Retirement and Successor
Neutral
May 1, 2026
On December 5, 2025, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. disclosed that Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary Richard Wolfson intended to retire on May 5, 2026, under his existing consulting agreement. Following a smoot...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.