tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
NASDAQ:CBRL
Advertisement

Cracker Barrel (CBRL) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
1,010 Followers

Top Page

CBRL

Cracker Barrel

(NASDAQ:CBRL)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$45.00
▲(2.74% Upside)
Cracker Barrel's overall stock score reflects a company facing significant challenges. The most impactful factor is the financial performance, marked by high leverage and declining profitability. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, further weighing on the score. While the earnings call provided some positive insights, such as revenue growth and strategic initiatives, the operational challenges and financial risks remain significant concerns.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue growth in restaurant sales indicates strong customer engagement and market demand, supporting long-term business stability.
Loyalty Program Expansion
Growing loyalty program membership enhances customer retention and provides a reliable revenue stream, strengthening competitive positioning.
Cash Flow Improvement
Improved cash flow management enhances financial flexibility, allowing for strategic investments and debt reduction, bolstering long-term growth.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can strain financial resources and limit strategic options, potentially impacting the company's ability to weather economic downturns.
Traffic Decline
A significant drop in traffic following brand changes suggests potential brand identity issues, which could affect long-term customer loyalty and revenue.
Increased Operating Expenses
Rising operating expenses can erode profit margins, challenging the company's ability to maintain profitability and invest in growth initiatives.

Cracker Barrel (CBRL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Cracker Barrel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company's Cracker Barrel stores consist of a restaurant with a gift shop. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services. The company's gift shops comprise various decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, seasonal gifts, apparel, toys, cookware, and various other gift items, as well as various candies, preserves, and other food items. As of September 15, 2021, it operated 664 Cracker Barrel stores in 45 states. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyCracker Barrel generates revenue primarily through its restaurant operations, which account for the majority of its income. The company operates over 660 locations across the United States, providing a menu that includes breakfast, lunch, and dinner options. In addition to food and beverage sales, Cracker Barrel earns income from retail sales in its gift shops, which feature a variety of products such as home accessories, toys, and regional foods. The company also benefits from seasonal promotions and partnerships with suppliers that enhance its product offerings. Furthermore, Cracker Barrel's revenue is supported by its loyal customer base, driven by its unique dining experience and brand identity.

Cracker Barrel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Company Owned Restaurants
Total Company Owned Restaurants
Indicates the scale of Cracker Barrel's operations, reflecting its market presence and potential for revenue generation through its owned locations.
Chart InsightsCracker Barrel's steady increase in company-owned restaurants reflects a strategic expansion, with a notable rise since 2019. Despite a slight dip in early 2023, the trend remains upward, aligning with the company's focus on enhancing restaurant sales and operational efficiency. The latest earnings call highlights effective cost management and a strong start to Q4, suggesting that the expansion strategy is supported by robust restaurant performance and loyalty program success. However, challenges in retail sales and tariff impacts could pose risks to overall growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Cracker Barrel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 17, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call revealed a mixed performance with strong revenue and loyalty program growth, but significant challenges were noted with a decline in traffic following a brand logo change and increased costs impacting margins. Strategic initiatives like pricing and loyalty program expansion show promise, but immediate challenges need addressing.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Adjusting for the impact of the 53rd week in the prior year, revenue grew by 2.2%, with comparable store restaurant sales growth of 3.5% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 9% for the full year.
Q4 Revenue Performance
For Q4, total revenue was $868 million, a 4.4% increase excluding the 53rd week benefit, with comparable store restaurant sales growing by 5.4%.
Strategic Pricing Success
Pricing for Q4 was 5.4%, with favorable menu mix contributing an additional 1%.
Loyalty Program Growth
The Cracker Barrel Rewards program increased by 3 million members to over 9 million members, accounting for over 35% of tracked sales.
Cost Management
Labor and related expenses improved by 100 basis points to 36.5% of revenue, driven by menu pricing and improved productivity.
Negative Updates
Traffic Decline Post Logo Change
Traffic declined approximately 8% following the logo change on August 19, with an anticipated Q1 traffic decline of 7% to 8%.
Retail Sales Decrease
Comparable store retail sales decreased by 0.8% in Q4.
Noncash Store Impairment Charge
GAAP financial results included a noncash store impairment charge of $16.2 million, primarily related to low-performing Maple Street stores.
Increased Operating Expenses
Other operating expenses were 24.9% of revenue, a 100 basis point increase due to higher advertising and depreciation.
Tariff Expense Impact
Retail cost of goods sold increased by 90 basis points due to $2.4 million in additional tariff expenses.
Company Guidance
In the Cracker Barrel Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Conference Call, several key metrics were highlighted to provide insight into the company's performance and future outlook. The company reported total revenue of $868 million for Q4, with restaurant revenue at $718.2 million and retail revenue at $149.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $55.7 million, marking an 8% increase when excluding the impact of the 53rd week from the prior year. Comparable store restaurant sales grew by 5.4%, continuing a trend of five consecutive quarters of positive growth. Pricing for the quarter was up 5.4%, with off-premise sales accounting for 18.1% of restaurant sales. The company also announced a new $100 million share repurchase program and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Cracker Barrel anticipates total revenue between $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion, with expected annual traffic declines of 4% to 7% and pricing increases of 4% to 5%. The company also plans to open two new Cracker Barrel stores and close 14 Maple Street units, with capital expenditures estimated at $135 million to $150 million.

Cracker Barrel Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cracker Barrel's financial performance shows stable revenue growth and solid gross profit margins. However, the net profit margin is low, and there is a decline in free cash flow, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The balance sheet reflects moderate debt levels, which could pose financial risks if not managed well.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Cracker Barrel's revenue growth has been steady, with a notable increase in the most recent TTM period. The gross profit margin is solid, indicating good cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low, suggesting potential inefficiencies or high expenses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, indicating average operational performance in the industry.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a moderate level of debt relative to equity, which could pose financial risk if not managed well. Return on Equity (ROE) is reasonable but has shown a declining trend. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset financing strategy, though there's room for improvement in strengthening equity.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cracker Barrel's cash flow statements highlight a decline in free cash flow from previous years, which could indicate less cash available for reinvestment or debt reduction. The operating cash flow relative to net income is strong, suggesting good cash generation from operations, but the free cash flow to net income ratio has weakened, reflecting lower cash efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.51B3.48B3.47B3.44B3.27B2.82B
Gross Profit1.15B1.15B1.11B1.11B1.07B973.06M
EBITDA169.84M197.33M156.87M239.10M153.00M366.66M
Net Income57.76M46.38M40.93M99.05M131.88M254.51M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.14B2.16B2.16B2.22B2.29B2.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.81M39.64M12.04M25.15M45.10M144.59M
Total Debt1.14B1.13B1.20B1.12B1.20B1.08B
Total Liabilities1.67B1.70B1.72B1.73B1.78B1.73B
Stockholders Equity469.31M461.69M440.15M483.82M511.48M663.63M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow25.06M60.25M40.69M125.07M108.15M231.77M
Operating Cash Flow186.20M218.90M168.98M250.46M205.25M301.90M
Investing Cash Flow-155.76M-156.70M-124.33M-124.32M-98.50M78.33M
Financing Cash Flow-32.48M-34.59M-57.77M-146.10M-206.24M-672.64M

Cracker Barrel Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price43.80
Price Trends
50DMA
56.74
Negative
100DMA
57.26
Negative
200DMA
52.73
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.76
Positive
RSI
29.92
Positive
STOCH
11.10
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBRL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 43.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.26, below the 50-day MA of 56.74, and below the 200-day MA of 52.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.92 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.10 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CBRL.

Cracker Barrel Risk Analysis

Cracker Barrel disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cracker Barrel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cracker Barrel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
435.78M18.47-145.50%1.87%6.38%9.98%
68
Neutral
2.74B16.9039.63%1.99%4.77%38.24%
68
Neutral
6.09B16.01103.29%21.95%146.44%
60
Neutral
1.52B20.39-17.38%3.94%-1.46%8.10%
58
Neutral
$975.52M21.2710.29%2.20%0.37%12.99%
44
Neutral
96.49M-20.30-4.84%1.00%10.67%-181.88%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CBRL
Cracker Barrel
45.50
0.05
0.11%
EAT
Brinker International
132.19
56.60
74.88%
NATH
Nathan's Famous
109.01
29.24
36.66%
PZZA
Papa John's International
46.75
-3.95
-7.79%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
54.30
15.31
39.27%
GENK
GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. Class A
2.93
-5.58
-65.57%

Cracker Barrel Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cracker Barrel Issues $345M Convertible Senior Notes
Neutral
Jun 16, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. completed the issuance and sale of $345 million in 1.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030, with net proceeds of approximately $333.9 million. The funds are intended for general corporate purposes, including repurchasing $150 million of existing notes and entering into capped call transactions to mitigate potential stock dilution. The issuance is part of Cracker Barrel’s strategy to manage its debt and financial positioning, with implications for its market operations and stakeholder interests.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 23, 2025