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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
NASDAQ:CBRL
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Cracker Barrel (CBRL) AI Stock Analysis

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CBRL

Cracker Barrel

(NASDAQ:CBRL)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(3.84% Upside)
Cracker Barrel's overall stock score is influenced by its financial challenges, particularly in profitability and leverage management. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, while valuation metrics provide some support with an attractive P/E ratio and dividend yield. The earnings call reflects mixed sentiment, with strategic initiatives showing promise but immediate challenges needing attention.
Positive Factors
Loyalty Program Growth
The expansion of the loyalty program enhances customer retention and engagement, potentially driving sustained sales growth and brand loyalty.
Cash Flow Improvement
Improved free cash flow indicates better cash management, providing financial flexibility for investments and debt reduction.
Strategic Pricing Success
Effective pricing strategies enhance revenue without sacrificing customer demand, supporting margin stability and profitability.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can increase financial risk and limit the company's ability to invest in growth or withstand economic downturns.
Traffic Decline
A significant decline in customer traffic could impact revenue and suggests potential issues with brand perception or market positioning.
Increased Operating Expenses
Rising operating expenses can pressure profit margins, reducing overall profitability and financial health if not managed effectively.

Cracker Barrel (CBRL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Cracker Barrel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company's Cracker Barrel stores consist of a restaurant with a gift shop. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services. The company's gift shops comprise various decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, seasonal gifts, apparel, toys, cookware, and various other gift items, as well as various candies, preserves, and other food items. As of September 15, 2021, it operated 664 Cracker Barrel stores in 45 states. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyCracker Barrel generates revenue primarily through its restaurant operations, where it serves breakfast, lunch, and dinner to customers. The company’s revenue model is heavily reliant on food and beverage sales, which account for the majority of its income. Additionally, the retail segment contributes to earnings by selling various products, including home goods, toys, and clothing, enhancing the overall customer experience. Key revenue streams include dine-in sales, takeout orders, and retail merchandise sales. The company also benefits from seasonal promotions and partnerships with suppliers for exclusive products, which can drive additional traffic and sales. Furthermore, Cracker Barrel has implemented strategies such as loyalty programs and targeted marketing to increase customer retention and boost overall sales.

Cracker Barrel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Company Owned Restaurants
Total Company Owned Restaurants
Indicates the scale of Cracker Barrel's operations, reflecting its market presence and potential for revenue generation through its owned locations.
Chart InsightsCracker Barrel's steady increase in company-owned restaurants reflects a strategic expansion, with a notable rise since 2019. Despite a slight dip in early 2023, the trend remains upward, aligning with the company's focus on enhancing restaurant sales and operational efficiency. The latest earnings call highlights effective cost management and a strong start to Q4, suggesting that the expansion strategy is supported by robust restaurant performance and loyalty program success. However, challenges in retail sales and tariff impacts could pose risks to overall growth.
Data provided by:The Fly

Cracker Barrel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 17, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 09, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call revealed a mixed performance with strong revenue and loyalty program growth, but significant challenges were noted with a decline in traffic following a brand logo change and increased costs impacting margins. Strategic initiatives like pricing and loyalty program expansion show promise, but immediate challenges need addressing.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Adjusting for the impact of the 53rd week in the prior year, revenue grew by 2.2%, with comparable store restaurant sales growth of 3.5% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 9% for the full year.
Q4 Revenue Performance
For Q4, total revenue was $868 million, a 4.4% increase excluding the 53rd week benefit, with comparable store restaurant sales growing by 5.4%.
Strategic Pricing Success
Pricing for Q4 was 5.4%, with favorable menu mix contributing an additional 1%.
Loyalty Program Growth
The Cracker Barrel Rewards program increased by 3 million members to over 9 million members, accounting for over 35% of tracked sales.
Cost Management
Labor and related expenses improved by 100 basis points to 36.5% of revenue, driven by menu pricing and improved productivity.
Negative Updates
Traffic Decline Post Logo Change
Traffic declined approximately 8% following the logo change on August 19, with an anticipated Q1 traffic decline of 7% to 8%.
Retail Sales Decrease
Comparable store retail sales decreased by 0.8% in Q4.
Noncash Store Impairment Charge
GAAP financial results included a noncash store impairment charge of $16.2 million, primarily related to low-performing Maple Street stores.
Increased Operating Expenses
Other operating expenses were 24.9% of revenue, a 100 basis point increase due to higher advertising and depreciation.
Tariff Expense Impact
Retail cost of goods sold increased by 90 basis points due to $2.4 million in additional tariff expenses.
Company Guidance
In the Cracker Barrel Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Conference Call, several key metrics were highlighted to provide insight into the company's performance and future outlook. The company reported total revenue of $868 million for Q4, with restaurant revenue at $718.2 million and retail revenue at $149.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $55.7 million, marking an 8% increase when excluding the impact of the 53rd week from the prior year. Comparable store restaurant sales grew by 5.4%, continuing a trend of five consecutive quarters of positive growth. Pricing for the quarter was up 5.4%, with off-premise sales accounting for 18.1% of restaurant sales. The company also announced a new $100 million share repurchase program and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Cracker Barrel anticipates total revenue between $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion, with expected annual traffic declines of 4% to 7% and pricing increases of 4% to 5%. The company also plans to open two new Cracker Barrel stores and close 14 Maple Street units, with capital expenditures estimated at $135 million to $150 million.

Cracker Barrel Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cracker Barrel's financial performance reflects challenges in profitability and leverage management. The income statement shows declining net profit margins and inconsistent revenue growth. The balance sheet indicates high leverage with a significant debt-to-equity ratio, while cash flow analysis reveals positive trends in free cash flow growth, suggesting some improvement in cash management.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Cracker Barrel's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin is stable, but the net profit margin has decreased over the years, indicating pressure on profitability. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable decline in the most recent year. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, suggesting challenges in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage which could pose financial risk. Return on equity has decreased over time, reflecting reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend in free cash flow growth, recovering from previous declines. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting room for improvement in cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.48B3.48B3.47B3.44B3.27B2.82B
Gross Profit931.66M1.15B1.11B1.11B1.07B973.06M
EBITDA157.67M197.33M156.87M239.10M315.07M366.66M
Net Income46.38M46.38M40.93M99.05M131.88M254.51M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.43B2.16B2.16B2.22B2.29B2.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments39.64M39.64M12.04M25.15M45.10M144.59M
Total Debt1.18B1.13B1.20B1.12B1.20B1.08B
Total Liabilities1.96B1.70B1.72B1.73B1.78B1.73B
Stockholders Equity461.69M461.69M440.15M483.82M511.48M663.63M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow59.76M60.25M40.69M125.07M108.15M231.77M
Operating Cash Flow218.90M218.90M168.98M250.46M205.25M301.90M
Investing Cash Flow-156.70M-156.70M-124.33M-124.32M-98.50M78.33M
Financing Cash Flow-34.59M-34.59M-57.77M-146.10M-206.24M-672.64M

Cracker Barrel Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price28.89
Price Trends
50DMA
36.05
Negative
100DMA
47.31
Negative
200DMA
47.87
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.58
Negative
RSI
39.57
Neutral
STOCH
69.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBRL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.45, below the 50-day MA of 36.05, and below the 200-day MA of 47.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CBRL.

Cracker Barrel Risk Analysis

Cracker Barrel disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cracker Barrel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cracker Barrel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Neutral
$6.83B15.95249.07%23.18%138.17%
67
Neutral
$2.38B14.4739.14%2.27%4.90%27.14%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
58
Neutral
$377.30M16.612.10%7.81%4.58%
58
Neutral
$643.34M13.9910.29%3.46%0.37%12.99%
56
Neutral
$1.38B37.104.37%-0.64%-60.71%
41
Neutral
$88.92M-8.89%1.19%9.36%-249.08%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CBRL
Cracker Barrel
28.89
-26.58
-47.92%
EAT
Brinker International
153.79
23.58
18.11%
NATH
Nathan's Famous
92.26
8.55
10.21%
PZZA
Papa John's International
42.07
-5.85
-12.21%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
47.66
-0.88
-1.81%
GENK
GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. Class A
2.53
-6.13
-70.79%

Cracker Barrel Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Cracker Barrel Announces Leadership and Organizational Changes
Neutral
Oct 2, 2025

On October 2, 2025, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. announced significant leadership and organizational changes, including the departure of Cammie Spillyards-Schaefer, the Senior Vice President and Chief Restaurant and Retail Operations Officer. These changes are part of a strategic initiative to enhance focus on food quality and guest experience, with promotions and role expansions for key personnel. The company aims to streamline operations and improve guest interactions, while ending its engagement with the consultancy firm Prophet.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBRL) stock is a Hold with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cracker Barrel stock, see the CBRL Stock Forecast page.

Cracker Barrel’s Earnings Call: Mixed Results and Future Plans
Sep 20, 2025

Cracker Barrel’s recent earnings call painted a picture of mixed performance, with notable achievements in revenue and loyalty program growth, yet significant challenges such as a decline in traffic following a brand logo change and increased costs impacting margins. While strategic initiatives like pricing and loyalty program expansion show promise, immediate challenges need addressing to sustain growth.

Cracker Barrel Reports Fiscal 2025 Earnings and Future Outlook
Sep 18, 2025

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. is a well-known American restaurant and retail chain that offers homestyle meals and unique retail items, primarily in the casual dining sector, with a focus on country hospitality and tradition. The company operates approximately 660 locations across 43 states and owns the fast-casual Maple Street Biscuit Company.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 21, 2025