Cracker Barrel (CBRL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.16B
• Dividend Yield: 1.89%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 2.84%
• EPS Growth: -4.44%
• Country: US
• Employees: 77,600
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 22,266,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,576,968
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,404,120
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.32
• 1Y Price Target: $59.75
• Price Target Upside: 13.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $58.00 ▲(9.83% Upside)

Cracker Barrel's overall stock score reflects stable financial performance with revenue growth and solid gross margins. However, liquidity challenges and moderate debt levels pose risks. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, while the valuation suggests the stock might be overvalued. The earnings call provided optimism for future growth despite current challenges.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Cracker Barrel reported F3Q25 operating results with much better-than-expected AEPS and AEBITDA results on slightly below-consensus revenues.

Guidance

Management raised FY25 AEBITDA guidance to a range of $215M-$225M, indicating confidence in future performance despite some pressures.

Sales Trends

SSS trends accelerated nicely over March and April as weather trends normalized and consumer macro began to improve, with further acceleration expected in F4Q.

Negative Factors

Operating Expenses

Restaurant operating expenses are anticipated to remain elevated due to additional investments in media, impacting overall cost management.

Stock Valuation

CBRL is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio above its 5 and 10-year averages, contributing to the reiteration of an Underperform rating.

Traffic Decline

CBRL's 3Q traffic decline of approximately 5.3% lagged behind full-service peers, indicating challenges in attracting customers despite industry-wide headwinds.

Cracker Barrel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company's Cracker Barrel stores consist of a restaurant with a gift shop. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services. The company's gift shops comprise various decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, seasonal gifts, apparel, toys, cookware, and various other gift items, as well as various candies, preserves, and other food items. As of September 15, 2021, it operated 664 Cracker Barrel stores in 45 states. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Cracker Barrel generates revenue primarily through its restaurant operations, which account for the majority of its income. The company operates over 660 locations across the United States, providing a menu that includes breakfast, lunch, and dinner options. In addition to food and beverage sales, Cracker Barrel earns income from retail sales in its gift shops, which feature a variety of products such as home accessories, toys, and regional foods. The company also benefits from seasonal promotions and partnerships with suppliers that enhance its product offerings. Furthermore, Cracker Barrel's revenue is supported by its loyal customer base, driven by its unique dining experience and brand identity.

Cracker Barrel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cracker Barrel's financial performance shows steady revenue growth and solid gross profit margins. However, the net profit margin is low, and there is a decline in free cash flow, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The balance sheet reflects moderate debt levels, which could pose financial risks if not managed well.

Income Statement

Cracker Barrel's revenue growth has been steady, with a notable increase in the most recent TTM period. The gross profit margin is solid, indicating good cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low, suggesting potential inefficiencies or high expenses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, indicating average operational performance in the industry.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate level of debt relative to equity, which could pose financial risk if not managed well. Return on Equity (ROE) is reasonable but has shown a declining trend. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset financing strategy, though there's room for improvement in strengthening equity.

Cash Flow

Cracker Barrel's cash flow statements highlight a decline in free cash flow from previous years, which could indicate less cash available for reinvestment or debt reduction. The operating cash flow relative to net income is strong, suggesting good cash generation from operations, but the free cash flow to net income ratio has weakened, reflecting lower cash efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.51B	3.47B	3.44B	3.27B	2.82B	2.52B
Gross Profit	1.15B	1.11B	1.11B	1.07B	973.06M	817.86M
EBITDA	169.84M	156.87M	239.10M	153.00M	366.66M	284.07M
Net Income	57.76M	40.93M	99.05M	131.88M	254.51M	109.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.14B	2.16B	2.22B	2.29B	2.39B	2.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.81M	12.04M	25.15M	45.10M	144.59M	437.00M
Total Debt	1.14B	1.20B	1.12B	1.20B	1.08B	1.54B
Total Liabilities	1.67B	1.72B	1.73B	1.78B	1.73B	2.13B
Stockholders Equity	469.31M	440.15M	483.82M	511.48M	663.63M	418.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	25.06M	40.69M	125.07M	108.15M	231.77M	-135.01M
Operating Cash Flow	186.20M	168.98M	250.46M	205.25M	301.90M	161.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-155.76M	-124.33M	-124.32M	-98.50M	78.33M	-157.23M
Financing Cash Flow	-32.48M	-57.77M	-146.10M	-206.24M	-672.64M	396.34M

Cracker Barrel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 52.81
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBRL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 52.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.86, below the 50-day MA of 61.48, and below the 200-day MA of 52.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CBRL.

Cracker Barrel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	68 Neutral	$3.04B	18.80	41.01%	1.78%	4.77%	38.24%
FWRG	67 Neutral	$1.14B	285.32	0.69%	―	14.53%	-83.26%
PTLO	67 Neutral	$508.60M	14.78	7.36%	―	3.62%	17.67%
BJRI	64 Neutral	$750.01M	28.51	7.12%	―	4.07%	-1.24%
CBRL	64 Neutral	$1.16B	20.99	12.90%	1.89%	2.84%	-4.44%
BH	63 Neutral	$962.77M	24.45	6.82%	―	4.14%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.97B	12.87	-5.30%	2.97%	1.26%	-14.45%

Cracker Barrel Corporate Events

Cracker Barrel Issues $345M Convertible Senior Notes

On June 13, 2025, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. completed the issuance and sale of $345 million in 1.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030, with net proceeds of approximately $333.9 million. The funds are intended for general corporate purposes, including repurchasing $150 million of existing notes and entering into capped call transactions to mitigate potential stock dilution. The issuance is part of Cracker Barrel’s strategy to manage its debt and financial positioning, with implications for its market operations and stakeholder interests.