Want to see PZZA full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Papa John's International
(NASDAQ:PZZA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▼(-3.90% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by balance-sheet risk (negative equity with high debt) and weakening profitability/cash-flow trends, alongside bearish technicals with the stock below key moving averages. These are partially offset by a moderate P/E and a high dividend yield, plus earnings-call initiatives (cost and supply-chain savings, refranchising) that could improve margins over time despite near-term North America pressure.
Positive Factors
Loyalty Program Growth
Rapid loyalty membership expansion increases repeat purchase frequency and customer lifetime value. Higher-order frequency and modest ticket lift provide a durable revenue lever that supports marketing efficiency, higher margin mix, and quicker payback on acquisition over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weakened Balance Sheet (Negative Equity)
Negative equity combined with elevated debt materially reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing and covenant risk. This structural capital weakness constrains capacity for strategic investments, makes stress scenarios more dangerous, and raises the cost of capital over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loyalty Program Growth
Rapid loyalty membership expansion increases repeat purchase frequency and customer lifetime value. Higher-order frequency and modest ticket lift provide a durable revenue lever that supports marketing efficiency, higher margin mix, and quicker payback on acquisition over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Papa John's International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where there might be challenges.
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where there might be challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPapa John's International (PZZA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.18B
Dividend Yield4.72%
Average Volume (3M)1.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.6
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth-2.41%
EPS Growth-64.77%
CountryUS
Employees11,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.84
Shares Outstanding32,902,016
10 Day Avg. Volume1,093,623
30 Day Avg. Volume1,309,781
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.68
Price to Book (P/B)-2.90
Price to Sales (P/S)0.63
P/FCF Ratio21.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.50
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.17Price Target Upside-0.78% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.92B
Papa John's International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Papa John's International, Inc. is a global pizza chain that manages and grants franchises for its Papa John's branded delivery and take-out restaurants across the United States and internationally. The company's operations are divided into four p...
How the Company Makes Money
Papa John’s makes money primarily through a mix of (1) retail sales from company-owned restaurants and (2) recurring fees and other revenue tied to franchised restaurants, supplemented by supply chain and related services.
1) Company-owned restau...
Papa John's International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: meaningful progress on international growth, loyalty expansion, product innovation (Pan Pizza, sandwiches), brand extensions (retail sauce, Toy Story 5), and tangible supply-chain and company-owned store margin improvements. Offsetting these positives were notable North America weaknesses — mid-single-digit comparable sales declines driven by lower transactions and small-pizza mix shifts — along with an 8% decline in consolidated revenue, a modest adjusted EBITDA decline, commissary margin compression, and a small free cash flow outflow. Management reiterated cautious guidance and emphasized that the transformation is ongoing, with several initiatives expected to drive sequential improvement later in the year.Positive Updates
International Comparable Sales Momentum
International comparable sales grew ~3.6% (company stated six consecutive quarters of positive comps), with standout markets: U.K. comps up 11% (vs 7% prior quarter), Middle East comps +9%, and Asia Pacific +5%, driven by product innovation, partnerships and holiday demand.
Negative Updates
North America Comparable Sales Weakness
North America comparable sales finished the quarter down mid-single digits (management cited transaction declines and lower new customer acquisition; investor reference in Q&A indicated roughly -6.4% for the quarter), driven primarily by fewer orders and a shift to smaller, nonspecialty pizzas.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
International Comparable Sales Momentum
International comparable sales grew ~3.6% (company stated six consecutive quarters of positive comps), with standout markets: U.K. comps up 11% (vs 7% prior quarter), Middle East comps +9%, and Asia Pacific +5%, driven by product innovation, partnerships and holiday demand.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Papa John's reiterated 2026 guidance calling for global system‑wide sales to be flat to down low‑single‑digits, North America comps down 2%–4% (April slightly worse y/y but in line on a 3‑year stack), international comps +2%–4%, and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $200M–$210M; they plan ~$18M of supplemental marketing and franchisee subsidies, expect $13M of G&A savings (outside marketing), have line‑of‑sight to at least $30M of total cost savings by end‑2027, are on track for ≥$25M of supply‑chain savings this year (captured ~$7M in Q1), see ≥$60M NA supply‑chain opportunity (≈160 bps 4‑wall EBITDA improvement by 2028) and at least 200 bps of 4‑wall EBITDA improvement over the medium term. Additional metrics: available liquidity ~$498M, covenant leverage 3.3x, net cash from operations $7M, free cash flow outflow $6M, Q1 global system sales $1.2B (‑3% cc), consolidated revenue $479M (‑8%), consolidated adj. EBITDA ≈$48M (‑$2M), NA commissary adj. EBITDA margin 5% (‑230 bps), domestic company‑owned 4‑wall EBITDA $16.6M with 4‑wall margin 11.9% (+140 bps); non‑op guidance includes net interest $35M–$40M, adjusted D&A $70M–$75M, capex $70M–$80M, SBC ≈$5M/quarter, GAAP tax rate 30%–34%, diluted shares ≈33M; development/refranchising targets: 40–50 gross new NA restaurants (8 opened Q1), ~200 NA closures, 180–220 international openings with 5%–6% international closures, and a planned Q3 refranchise of 29 SE restaurants that should reduce 2026 revenue by ~$9M and increase adjusted EBITDA by ~$1M.Papa John's International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.01B | 2.05B | 2.06B | 2.14B | 2.10B | 2.07B |
| Gross Profit | 469.77M | 593.32M | 580.96M | 419.31M | 388.43M | 429.32M |
| EBITDA | 238.81M | 181.39M | 226.11M | 211.23M | 161.06M | 218.97M |
| Net Income | 28.56M | 30.53M | 83.49M | 82.10M | 67.77M | 120.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 831.93M | 926.93M | 888.95M | 875.00M | 864.23M | 885.70M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.04M | 36.95M | 37.95M | 40.59M | 47.37M | 70.61M |
| Total Debt | 952.64M | 1.09B | 971.13M | 965.72M | 807.26M | 685.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.27B | 1.36B | 1.30B | 1.32B | 1.13B | 1.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | -449.12M | -444.75M | -429.53M | -459.09M | -286.39M | -187.67M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 35.90M | 61.30M | 34.15M | 116.44M | 39.42M | 116.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 101.89M | 126.00M | 106.63M | 193.06M | 117.81M | 184.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -19.57M | -21.49M | -17.35M | -75.12M | -62.79M | -63.51M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -87.51M | -106.26M | -91.67M | -124.08M | -76.24M | -180.53M |
Papa John's International Technical Analysis
Positive
37.46
Price Trends
34.05
Positive
33.79
Positive
37.54
Negative
Market Momentum
0.81
Negative
55.79
Neutral
65.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PZZA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.31, above the 50-day MA of 34.05, and below the 200-day MA of 37.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PZZA.
Papa John's International Risk Analysis
Papa John's International disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Papa John's International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Papa John's International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $12.77B | 30.99 | 28.21% | 1.63% | 10.25% | -3.61% | |
71 Outperform | $45.40B | 26.36 | -23.33% | 1.84% | 9.65% | 23.32% | |
64 Neutral | $10.37B | 17.84 | -15.04% | 1.63% | 5.17% | -0.62% | |
62 Neutral | $4.85B | 44.06 | -15.30% | 0.45% | 8.96% | -32.63% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $1.64B | 11.03 | 130.59% | 8.15% | -1.84% | -17.48% | |
50 Neutral | $1.18B | 42.64 | -6.47% | 4.72% | -2.41% | -64.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PZZA
Papa John's International
35.82
-9.52
-20.99%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
311.66
-132.99
-29.91%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
194.28
11.35
6.21%
WEN
Wendy's
8.60
-1.97
-18.63%
YUM
Yum! Brands
164.73
17.21
11.66%
WING
Wingstop
177.99
-145.45
-44.97%
Papa John's International Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Papa Johns names interim CFO amid leadership transition
Neutral
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Papa Johns announced a chief financial officer transition, with Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance and Principal Accounting Officer Chris Collins appointed interim CFO as of that date, succeeding Ravi Thanawala, who resig...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Papa John’s Shareholders Back Board, Maintain Governance Structure
Neutral
May 6, 2026
At its April 30, 2026 annual meeting, Papa John’s International shareholders elected all eight board-nominated directors to one-year terms and ratified Ernst Young LLP as the company’s independent auditor for 2026, while also giving a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.