Papa John's International (PZZA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.35B
• Dividend Yield: 3.62%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.04M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: -0.64%
• EPS Growth: -60.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,400
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 32,789,417
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,748,337
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,036,324
• PEG Ratio: 6.52
• Price to Book (P/B): -3.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 38.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.26
• 1Y Price Target: $49.83
• Price Target Upside: 13.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.09B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $45.00 ▲(2.34% Upside)

Papa John's International's overall stock score reflects moderate financial performance with significant leverage risks, bearish technical indicators, and a high valuation. Positive factors include strong international growth and strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call. However, challenges in North American sales and increased promotional activities weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

International Sales Growth

The strong growth in international markets indicates successful expansion and adaptation to diverse markets, providing a buffer against domestic challenges.

Innovation Pipeline

A robust innovation pipeline can drive sales and margin expansion, ensuring the company remains competitive and relevant in a dynamic market.

Digital Platform Enhancement

Enhancing digital platforms improves customer experience and conversion rates, crucial for capturing online sales growth in the evolving QSR industry.

Negative Factors

Declining Profit Margins

The decline in profit margins suggests rising costs or pricing pressures, which could hinder profitability if not addressed through cost management or pricing strategies.

Highly Leveraged Balance Sheet

A highly leveraged balance sheet limits financial flexibility and increases risk, especially if interest rates rise or cash flows are pressured.

North America Sales Decline

Declining sales in North America highlight challenges in the core market, potentially impacting overall revenue and necessitating strategic adjustments.

Papa John's International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Papa John's International, Inc. is a global pizza delivery and carryout chain founded in 1984 and headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky. The company operates in the quick-service restaurant sector and specializes in pizza, offering a wide range of products including specialty pizzas, side items like breadsticks and chicken wings, desserts, and beverages. With a focus on high-quality ingredients and customer satisfaction, Papa John's has grown to become one of the largest pizza chains in the United States and has an expanding presence in international markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Papa John's generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pizza and related food products. The company operates a franchise model, where a significant portion of its revenue comes from franchise fees and royalties paid by franchisees based on their sales. Additionally, Papa John's earns income from company-owned restaurants, which contribute directly to its sales figures. The company also engages in online ordering and delivery services, which have become increasingly important revenue streams, especially with the rise of digital ordering platforms. Strategic partnerships with third-party delivery services further enhance its distribution capabilities and sales reach, effectively driving additional revenue. Seasonal promotions and limited-time offers also help boost sales during peak periods.

Papa John's International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Papa John's International shows moderate financial performance with stable revenue growth and operational efficiency. However, declining profit margins and a highly leveraged balance sheet pose potential financial risks. Cash flow generation is improving, but the conversion of income to cash remains a concern.

Income Statement

Papa John's International shows moderate revenue growth with a TTM increase of 3.1%. However, the gross profit margin has decreased over time, from 30.8% in 2023 to 24.2% in TTM 2025, indicating rising costs or pricing pressures. The net profit margin has also slightly declined, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a stable EBIT and EBITDA margin, suggesting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant financial leverage, with a negative equity position and a high debt-to-equity ratio of -2.24 in TTM 2025. This indicates potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting losses on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is also negative, highlighting a reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if interest rates rise or cash flows decline.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend in free cash flow growth at 6.6% in TTM 2025, indicating improved cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, suggesting that net income is not fully translating into cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also moderate, indicating some efficiency in converting profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2019	Dec 2018	Dec 2017
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.56B	2.06B	2.14B	1.62B	1.57B	1.78B
Gross Profit	406.83M	580.96M	419.31M	290.54M	353.64M	354.54M
EBITDA	128.74M	226.11M	211.23M	67.08M	77.07M	196.36M
Net Income	23.46M	83.49M	82.10M	4.87M	1.65M	103.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	884.10M	888.95M	875.00M	730.72M	570.95M	555.55M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	38.97M	37.95M	40.59M	27.91M	19.47M	22.34M
Total Debt	950.16M	971.13M	965.72M	525.23M	621.13M	466.56M
Total Liabilities	1.31B	1.30B	1.32B	1.05B	873.08M	661.51M
Stockholders Equity	-439.31M	-429.53M	-459.09M	-316.66M	-302.13M	-105.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.19M	34.15M	116.44M	24.04M	30.77M	82.38M
Operating Cash Flow	106.19M	106.63M	193.06M	61.75M	72.80M	134.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-37.62M	-17.35M	-75.12M	-32.58M	-38.80M	-56.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-68.21M	-91.67M	-124.08M	-34.57M	-48.10M	-72.06M

Papa John's International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 43.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PZZA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 43.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.65, below the 50-day MA of 48.13, and above the 200-day MA of 43.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PZZA.

Papa John's International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TXRH	74 Outperform	$10.97B	25.21	31.55%	1.61%	14.40%	12.45%
WEN	63 Neutral	$1.71B	9.51	100.85%	8.70%	-0.21%	0.16%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
YUM	60 Neutral	$41.39B	29.04	―	1.88%	11.60%	-4.33%
DPZ	58 Neutral	$13.86B	23.97	―	1.64%	3.92%	4.98%
WING	58 Neutral	$6.62B	38.88	―	0.47%	15.56%	79.02%
PZZA	56 Neutral	$1.35B	36.23	―	3.62%	-0.64%	-60.71%

Papa John's International Corporate Events

Papa John’s Reports Modest Sales Growth in Q2 2025

Papa John’s International, Inc. is a leading pizza delivery company, known for its commitment to quality ingredients and innovative menu offerings, operating in the fast-food industry with approximately 6,000 restaurants worldwide.

Papa John’s Earnings Call: Growth and Challenges

Papa John’s International recently held its earnings call, revealing a generally positive sentiment with notable achievements in North America and international markets. The company showcased successful product innovations and strategic investments in technology and customer engagement, despite facing challenges such as rising operating costs and market optimization efforts in China. Overall, the positive developments slightly outweighed the negatives.