Papa John's International (PZZA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.58B
• Dividend Yield: 3.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: -1.46%
• EPS Growth: 8.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,400
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 32,757,942
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,225,632
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,030,403
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.62
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.87
• 1Y Price Target: $50.33
• Price Target Upside: 4.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $50.00 ▲(3.65% Upside)

Papa John's International's overall stock score reflects moderate financial performance with stable revenue growth but challenges in profitability and leverage. Technical indicators show mixed signals with short-term bullish momentum but potential overbought conditions. Valuation is moderate with an attractive dividend yield. Positive strategic initiatives and leadership changes provide a favorable outlook, but operational cost challenges remain a concern.

Positive Factors

Brand and Market Share

The 'Meet the Makers' campaign increased brand consideration with consumers by highlighting what makes Papa John's the quality leader in the category.

Earnings

Papa John's reported solid operating results that beat consensus expectations on all metrics.

Innovation

Oven recalibration efforts are key to unlocking accelerated product innovation, leading to better product quality and higher customer satisfaction.

Negative Factors

Advertising Costs

Incremental advertising will be a ~$0.50 headwind to earnings in FY25.

Cash Flow

There are concerns with the direction of operating and free cash flow.

Operational Concerns

There are concerns about basic operational gaps, high unit closure rates, and never-ending international restructuring.

Papa John's International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Papa John's International, Inc. is a global pizza delivery and carryout chain founded in 1984 and headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky. The company operates in the quick-service restaurant sector and specializes in pizza, offering a wide range of products including specialty pizzas, side items like breadsticks and chicken wings, desserts, and beverages. With a focus on high-quality ingredients and customer satisfaction, Papa John's has grown to become one of the largest pizza chains in the United States and has an expanding presence in international markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Papa John's generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pizza and related food products. The company operates a franchise model, where a significant portion of its revenue comes from franchise fees and royalties paid by franchisees based on their sales. Additionally, Papa John's earns income from company-owned restaurants, which contribute directly to its sales figures. The company also engages in online ordering and delivery services, which have become increasingly important revenue streams, especially with the rise of digital ordering platforms. Strategic partnerships with third-party delivery services further enhance its distribution capabilities and sales reach, effectively driving additional revenue. Seasonal promotions and limited-time offers also help boost sales during peak periods.

Papa John's International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Papa John's International shows moderate financial performance with stable revenue growth and operational efficiency. However, challenges include declining profit margins and a highly leveraged balance sheet, posing potential financial risks. Cash flow generation shows improvement, but the conversion of income to cash remains a concern.

Income Statement

Papa John's International shows moderate revenue growth with a TTM increase of 3.1%. However, the gross profit margin has decreased over time, from 30.8% in 2023 to 24.2% in TTM 2025, indicating rising costs or pricing pressures. The net profit margin has also slightly declined, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a stable EBIT and EBITDA margin, suggesting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant financial leverage, with a negative equity position and a high debt-to-equity ratio of -2.24 in TTM 2025. This indicates potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting losses on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is also negative, highlighting a reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if interest rates rise or cash flows decline.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend in free cash flow growth at 6.6% in TTM 2025, indicating improved cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, suggesting that net income is not fully translating into cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also moderate, indicating some efficiency in converting profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.09B	2.06B	2.14B	2.10B	2.07B	1.81B
Gross Profit	505.20M	580.96M	657.07M	390.54M	429.32M	344.20M
EBITDA	215.29M	226.11M	212.50M	161.06M	217.06M	137.02M
Net Income	75.10M	83.49M	82.10M	67.77M	120.02M	57.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	890.44M	888.95M	875.00M	864.23M	885.70M	872.77M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	33.30M	37.95M	40.59M	47.37M	70.61M	130.20M
Total Debt	966.66M	971.13M	965.72M	807.26M	685.50M	513.57M
Total Liabilities	1.31B	1.30B	1.32B	1.13B	1.05B	1.14B
Stockholders Equity	-432.00M	-429.53M	-459.09M	-286.39M	-172.46M	-266.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	57.88M	34.15M	116.44M	39.42M	116.12M	150.79M
Operating Cash Flow	131.52M	106.63M	193.06M	117.81M	184.68M	186.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.90M	-17.35M	-75.12M	-62.79M	-63.51M	-41.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-110.00M	-91.67M	-124.08M	-76.24M	-180.53M	-43.46M

Papa John's International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 48.24
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PZZA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.72, above the 50-day MA of 45.58, and above the 200-day MA of 42.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PZZA.

Papa John's International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TXRH	74 Outperform	$11.22B	25.75	32.28%	1.57%	14.59%	18.98%
DPZ	73 Outperform	$15.75B	26.93	-14.74%	1.40%	3.65%	5.71%
WING	69 Neutral	$8.65B	51.77	-16.09%	0.36%	22.74%	87.07%
YUM	64 Neutral	$40.13B	28.56	-19.43%	1.94%	11.30%	-7.82%
WEN	63 Neutral	$1.97B	10.78	99.35%	7.55%	1.31%	-1.46%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.92B	12.81	-3.11%	2.97%	1.30%	-14.28%
PZZA	60 Neutral	$1.58B	21.26	-20.16%	3.81%	-1.46%	8.10%

Papa John's International Corporate Events

Papa John’s Appoints Chris Collins as SVP of Finance

On July 2, 2025, Papa John’s International appointed Chris Collins as the Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance and Principal Accounting Officer. Collins, who has been with the company since April 2021, brings over 30 years of finance experience, having previously worked with Signet Jewelers, The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, and American Axle & Manufacturing. This leadership change signifies a strategic move for Papa John’s, as Collins’ extensive experience is expected to enhance the company’s financial operations and positioning. Ravi Thanawala will continue his role as the principal financial officer.

The most recent analyst rating on (PZZA) stock is a Hold with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Papa John’s International stock, see the PZZA Stock Forecast page.

Papa John’s Appoints New Chief Administrative Officer

On June 5, 2025, Papa John’s International announced the promotion of Caroline Miller Oyler to the newly created role of Chief Administrative Officer. In her expanded role, Ms. Oyler will oversee several departments, including human resources, legal, and risk, aiming to enhance efficiency and collaboration across teams. This strategic move is part of Papa John’s ongoing transformation for long-term growth, leveraging Ms. Oyler’s extensive experience and leadership within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (PZZA) stock is a Hold with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Papa John’s International stock, see the PZZA Stock Forecast page.