Papa John's International (PZZA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.38B
• Dividend Yield: 4.37%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.97M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 37.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: -0.64%
• EPS Growth: -60.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,400
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 32,789,417
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 761,186
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,968,699
• PEG Ratio: 6.52
• Price to Book (P/B): -3.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 38.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.33
• 1Y Price Target: $49.83
• Price Target Upside: 18.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.43
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.07B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $45.00 ▲(6.96% Upside)

Papa John's International's overall stock score reflects moderate financial performance with significant leverage risks, bearish technical indicators, and a high valuation. Positive factors include strong international growth and strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call. However, challenges in North American sales and increased promotional activities weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

International Sales Growth

Strong international sales growth indicates successful market penetration and brand acceptance, providing a buffer against domestic market challenges.

Innovation Pipeline

A robust innovation pipeline suggests potential for new revenue streams and margin expansion, enhancing competitive positioning.

Digital Platform Enhancement

Enhancing digital platforms can improve customer experience and sales conversion rates, crucial for sustaining growth in a digital-first market.

Negative Factors

Declining Profit Margins

Declining profit margins indicate rising costs or pricing pressures, which can erode profitability and financial health over time.

High Financial Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities or weather economic downturns.

North America Sales Decline

A decline in North American sales reflects challenges in the core market, which could impact overall revenue and necessitate strategic adjustments.

Papa John's International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Papa John's International, Inc. is a global pizza delivery and carryout chain founded in 1984 and headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky. The company operates in the quick-service restaurant sector and specializes in pizza, offering a wide range of products including specialty pizzas, side items like breadsticks and chicken wings, desserts, and beverages. With a focus on high-quality ingredients and customer satisfaction, Papa John's has grown to become one of the largest pizza chains in the United States and has an expanding presence in international markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Papa John's generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pizza and related food products. The company operates a franchise model, where a significant portion of its revenue comes from franchise fees and royalties paid by franchisees based on their sales. Additionally, Papa John's earns income from company-owned restaurants, which contribute directly to its sales figures. The company also engages in online ordering and delivery services, which have become increasingly important revenue streams, especially with the rise of digital ordering platforms. Strategic partnerships with third-party delivery services further enhance its distribution capabilities and sales reach, effectively driving additional revenue. Seasonal promotions and limited-time offers also help boost sales during peak periods.

Papa John's International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Papa John's International shows moderate financial performance with stable revenue growth and operational efficiency. However, declining profit margins and a highly leveraged balance sheet pose potential financial risks. Cash flow generation is improving, but the conversion of income to cash remains a concern.

Income Statement

Papa John's International shows moderate revenue growth with a TTM increase of 3.1%. However, the gross profit margin has decreased over time, from 30.8% in 2023 to 24.2% in TTM 2025, indicating rising costs or pricing pressures. The net profit margin has also slightly declined, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a stable EBIT and EBITDA margin, suggesting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant financial leverage, with a negative equity position and a high debt-to-equity ratio of -2.24 in TTM 2025. This indicates potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting losses on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is also negative, highlighting a reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if interest rates rise or cash flows decline.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend in free cash flow growth at 6.6% in TTM 2025, indicating improved cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, suggesting that net income is not fully translating into cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also moderate, indicating some efficiency in converting profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.09B	2.06B	2.14B	2.10B	2.07B	1.81B
Gross Profit	514.02M	580.96M	419.31M	388.43M	429.32M	344.20M
EBITDA	173.11M	226.11M	211.23M	161.06M	217.06M	142.09M
Net Income	38.26M	83.49M	82.10M	67.77M	120.02M	57.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	884.10M	888.95M	875.00M	864.23M	885.70M	872.77M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	38.97M	37.95M	40.59M	47.37M	70.61M	130.20M
Total Debt	950.16M	971.13M	965.72M	807.26M	685.50M	513.57M
Total Liabilities	1.31B	1.30B	1.32B	1.13B	1.05B	1.13B
Stockholders Equity	-439.31M	-429.53M	-459.09M	-286.39M	-187.67M	-282.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	80.63M	34.15M	116.44M	39.42M	116.12M	150.79M
Operating Cash Flow	156.94M	106.63M	193.06M	117.81M	184.68M	186.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-62.41M	-17.35M	-75.12M	-62.79M	-63.51M	-41.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-73.30M	-91.67M	-124.08M	-76.24M	-180.53M	-43.46M

Papa John's International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 42.07
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PZZA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 42.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.08, below the 50-day MA of 46.12, and below the 200-day MA of 44.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PZZA.

Papa John's International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TXRH	74 Outperform	$11.59B	26.77	31.55%	1.61%	14.40%	12.45%
WING	65 Neutral	$7.36B	43.22	―	0.43%	15.56%	79.02%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
WEN	60 Neutral	$1.61B	8.96	100.85%	7.93%	-0.21%	0.16%
YUM	60 Neutral	$42.54B	29.83	―	1.83%	11.60%	-4.33%
DPZ	58 Neutral	$14.18B	24.52	―	1.60%	3.92%	4.98%
PZZA	56 Neutral	$1.38B	37.10	―	4.37%	-0.64%	-60.71%

Papa John's International Corporate Events

Papa John’s Reports Mixed Q3 2025 Results

Papa John’s International, Inc. is a leading pizza delivery company known for its commitment to quality ingredients, operating in the quick-service restaurant industry with a global presence in over 50 countries.

Papa John’s Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiment and Strategic Moves

The latest earnings call from Papa John’s International painted a mixed picture, highlighting strong international performance and strategic innovations, while also addressing challenges in North American sales and increased promotional activities. The company is actively focusing on cost-saving measures and refranchising efforts to bolster its financial standing.