Papa John's International (PZZA)
NASDAQ:PZZA
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Papa John's International
(NASDAQ:PZZA)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$32.00
â–¼(-9.17% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is weighed down primarily by financial performance: declining 2025 operating profitability, weaker cash conversion, and persistently negative equity. Technicals are only moderately supportive (short-term rebound but still below longer-term trend), and valuation looks demanding on earnings despite a strong dividend yield. Earnings call guidance points to continued near-term pressure, offset by identifiable cost-savings and refranchising initiatives that could improve margins over time.
Positive Factors
Large, engaged loyalty base
A 41M-member loyalty program with materially higher order frequency creates a durable, lower-cost revenue channel. Higher engagement and feature adoption (Papa Do redemptions) supports repeat sales, wallet share, and targeted promotions that sustainably raise AUV and reduce acquisition spend over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Persistently negative shareholders' equity
Negative equity is a structural balance-sheet fragility that limits capital flexibility, raises covenant and refinancing risk, and reduces the cushion against operating shocks. Even with recent debt reduction, negative net worth can constrain strategic investments and heighten funding costs over multiple years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large, engaged loyalty base
A 41M-member loyalty program with materially higher order frequency creates a durable, lower-cost revenue channel. Higher engagement and feature adoption (Papa Do redemptions) supports repeat sales, wallet share, and targeted promotions that sustainably raise AUV and reduce acquisition spend over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Papa John's International (PZZA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.16B
Dividend Yield4.72%
Average Volume (3M)1.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.3
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth-0.64%
EPS Growth-60.71%
CountryUS
Employees11,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding32,810,753
10 Day Avg. Volume940,671
30 Day Avg. Volume1,638,487
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.65
Price to Book (P/B)-2.90
Price to Sales (P/S)0.63
P/FCF Ratio21.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.07
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.50Price Target Upside9.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.93B
Papa John's International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa John's trademark in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North ...
How the Company Makes Money
Papa John’s makes money through a mix of retail restaurant sales, franchise-related income, and supply chain revenue. (1) Company-owned restaurant sales: The company generates revenue directly from pizzas and other menu items sold to customers at ...
Papa John's International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where there might be challenges.
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where there might be challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPapa John's International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: solid strategic progress (loyalty growth, international momentum, technology upgrades, a visible innovation pipeline, identified cost savings, and strong liquidity) contrasted with near-term operational and financial headwinds (North America comps down, revenue and EBITDA pressure, planned restaurant closures, menu changes causing near-term comp headwinds, and investment/restructuring costs). Management emphasizes that 2025–2026 are investment years and that initiatives should drive medium- to long-term four-wall margin and revenue improvement, but the near-term outlook remains cautious.Positive Updates
Loyalty Program Strength and Engagement
Papa Rewards reached nearly 41,000,000 members; loyalty members place 2.5x more orders than non-members. Redemption of Papa Do among loyalty orders increased from 24% last year to 48% in 2025, indicating stronger engagement and higher utilization of the loyalty base.
Negative Updates
North America Comparable Sales Decline
North America comparable sales decreased 5% in Q4, driven by a 5.5% decline in transactions. Management expects North America comps to decline 2%–4% in 2026 and quarter-to-date comps down mid-single digits.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Loyalty Program Strength and Engagement
Papa Rewards reached nearly 41,000,000 members; loyalty members place 2.5x more orders than non-members. Redemption of Papa Do among loyalty orders increased from 24% last year to 48% in 2025, indicating stronger engagement and higher utilization of the loyalty base.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided 2026 global system‑wide sales to be flat to down low‑single‑digits, North America comparable sales down 2%–4% and international comparable sales up 2%–4%, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $202M–$210M; it expects to incur $16M–$23M of restructuring charges (primarily cash in 2026–27), invest ~$22M in supplemental marketing and franchisee subsidies in 2026 (not expected to continue thereafter), realize ~$13M of non‑marketing cost savings in 2026 on the way to $25M by 2027, and deliver at least $60M of North America supply‑chain savings (with $20M–$25M realized by 2026) that contribute to roughly 160 bps of four‑wall EBITDA improvement by 2028 (and ~200 bps over the medium term); other 2026 metrics include net interest expense $35M–$40M, adjusted D&A $70M–$75M, capital expenditures $70M–$80M (stepping down to ~$60M–$70M annually thereafter), a GAAP tax rate of 30%–34% (Q1 34%–38%), planned closures of ~200 North America restaurants in 2026 and ~100 in 2027, expected openings of 40–50 gross new North America restaurants and 180–220 international restaurants in 2026, Q1 comps running mid‑single‑digit declines with improvement expected in H2, and the pending Southeast refranchising of 29 restaurants estimated to reduce 2026 consolidated revenue by ~$9M and increase adjusted EBITDA by ~$1M (year‑end liquidity was $515M with covenant leverage of 3.2x).Papa John's International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.05B | 2.06B | 2.14B | 2.10B | 2.07B |
| Gross Profit | 593.32M | 580.96M | 419.31M | 388.43M | 429.32M |
| EBITDA | 181.39M | 226.11M | 211.23M | 161.06M | 217.06M |
| Net Income | 30.53M | 83.49M | 82.10M | 67.77M | 120.02M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 926.93M | 888.95M | 875.00M | 864.23M | 885.70M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.95M | 37.95M | 40.59M | 47.37M | 70.61M |
| Total Debt | 1.09B | 971.13M | 965.72M | 807.26M | 685.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.36B | 1.30B | 1.32B | 1.13B | 1.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | -444.75M | -429.53M | -459.09M | -286.39M | -187.67M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 61.30M | 34.15M | 116.44M | 39.42M | 116.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 126.00M | 106.63M | 193.06M | 117.81M | 184.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.49M | -17.35M | -75.12M | -62.79M | -63.51M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -106.26M | -91.67M | -124.08M | -76.24M | -180.53M |
Papa John's International Technical Analysis
Positive
35.23
Price Trends
33.65
Positive
36.57
Negative
41.18
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
56.18
Neutral
70.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PZZA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.23, above the 50-day MA of 33.65, and below the 200-day MA of 41.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PZZA.
Papa John's International Risk Analysis
Papa John's International disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Papa John's International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Papa John's International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $12.80B | 23.81 | -15.28% | 1.63% | 3.92% | 4.98% | |
67 Neutral | $10.76B | 32.67 | 28.20% | 1.63% | 14.40% | 12.45% | |
65 Neutral | $43.50B | 26.98 | -20.57% | 1.84% | 11.60% | -4.33% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $4.53B | 41.12 | -24.54% | 0.45% | 15.56% | 79.02% | |
57 Neutral | $1.35B | 9.79 | 140.58% | 8.15% | -0.21% | 0.16% | |
48 Neutral | $1.16B | 42.31 | -6.99% | 4.72% | -0.64% | -60.71% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PZZA
Papa John's International
35.23
4.53
14.75%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.