Wingstop (WING) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.44B
• Dividend Yield: 0.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: 15.56%
• EPS Growth: 79.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 325
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 1.00
• Shares Outstanding: 27,484,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,034,254
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,082,587
• PEG Ratio: 0.61
• Price to Book (P/B): -9.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 10.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 67.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.05
• 1Y Price Target: $331.71
• Price Target Upside: 66.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 23
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.69
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $808.04M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $220.00 ▲(10.43% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is anchored by strong profitability and cash generation but meaningfully tempered by balance-sheet risk (negative equity). Technicals are a major drag given the stock’s clear downtrend and weak momentum. Valuation is relatively rich, while the earnings call and corporate actions provide partial support through strong unit-growth plans and shareholder returns despite near-term same-store sales and execution headwinds.

Positive Factors

Profitability & Margin Expansion

Sustained margin expansion reflects durable operating leverage from an efficient, narrow menu and franchised model. Higher net margins increase cash available for reinvestment, support franchise economics and make earnings more resilient across economic cycles, underpinning long-term profitability.

Attractive Unit Economics & Franchised Model

An asset-light, franchise-led model with modest franchise investment enables rapid, capital-efficient expansion. Strong AUVs and unit-level margins align franchisee incentives with corporate royalties, supporting scalable revenue growth and lower corporate capital intensity over multiple years.

Strong Cash Generation & Capital Returns

Consistent positive operating cash flow and repeat buybacks/dividends indicate reliable free cash generation. Robust cash flow supports disciplined capital allocation, funds growth initiatives (unit development, Smart Kitchen rollout), and provides flexibility to return capital while sustaining investments.

Negative Factors

Negative Stockholders' Equity

Persistently negative equity signals an aggressive capital structure that heightens financial risk. It distorts leverage metrics, can limit access to some funding sources, and reduces flexibility to absorb shocks, making the company more sensitive to adverse operating or macro developments.

Same-Store Sales Decline & Cautious Guidance

Weaker comp trends directly reduce recurring royalty income and pressure franchisee cash flow and margins. Conservatively guided comps signal a slow recovery in consumer demand, which can temper system-wide sales growth and constrain long-term royalty and fee expansion.

Execution Variability & Delivery Fulfillment Lag

Persistent execution gaps, especially on delivery, risk undermining digital sales and frequency at a brand where ~73% of sales are digital. Delivery inconsistency and variability across the system can harm customer experience, loyalty rollout effectiveness, and long-term same-store performance.

Wingstop Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand name. Its restaurants offer classic wings, boneless wings, and tenders that are cooked-to-order, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in various flavors. As of December 25, 2021, the company had 1,695 franchised restaurants and 36 company-owned restaurants in 44 states and 7 countries worldwide. Wingstop Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Addison, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Wingstop makes money primarily through a franchise-led revenue model rather than company-operated restaurant sales. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) royalties paid by franchisees, typically calculated as a percentage of franchise restaurant sales; (2) franchise fees collected when new franchise restaurants are opened or when franchise agreements are executed/renewed; and (3) revenue from providing or facilitating access to products and services for franchisees, which can include contributions for brand marketing and/or digital and delivery-related programs depending on the franchise arrangements. Because the system is largely franchised, Wingstop’s earnings are heavily influenced by system-wide sales at franchise restaurants, new unit development (opening additional franchised locations), and ongoing franchisee health and compliance with brand standards. Third-party delivery platforms and digital ordering can be important drivers of franchisee sales volumes (which in turn affect royalty revenue), but specific contractual terms or revenue-sharing details for those relationships are not available here and are therefore null.

Wingstop Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating results are strong (income statement score 82) with rapid revenue growth and major net margin expansion through 2025, and cash generation is solid (cash flow score 78) with consistently positive free cash flow and operating cash flow exceeding net income. The key offset is a high-risk capital structure (balance sheet score 34) with persistently negative equity and uneven debt levels, which reduces financial flexibility and elevates risk.

Income Statement

Wingstop shows strong top-line momentum and improving profitability. Revenue has grown rapidly over the period (notably accelerating in 2025), while net margins expanded meaningfully from ~9% (2020) to ~25% (2025). EBITDA margin also strengthened vs. prior years, indicating good operating leverage. Key weakness: 2025 gross profit and margin are shown as 0, and EBIT margin is also shown as 0, which looks like a data issue and limits margin quality checks for the most recent year.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is the primary concern. Stockholders’ equity is negative across all years and becomes more negative over time, which increases financial risk and makes equity-based strength indicators less meaningful. Debt levels are volatile (very high in 2024 vs. other years), and the negative equity leads to distorted leverage ratios. While total assets have grown, the capital structure remains aggressive and reduces financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and generally supportive of earnings quality. Operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income (roughly 1.2x–1.9x across the years), and free cash flow is positive each year with a step-up over time (strong growth in 2022 and again in 2025). A watch item is that free cash flow is typically below net income (about ~43%–91%), suggesting ongoing reinvestment needs and/or working-capital and other cash timing impacts.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	696.85M	625.81M	460.06M	357.52M	282.50M
Gross Profit	575.73M	300.87M	222.83M	171.06M	141.10M
EBITDA	217.23M	187.97M	125.78M	101.44M	81.83M
Net Income	174.27M	108.72M	70.17M	52.95M	42.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	693.41M	716.25M	377.82M	424.19M	249.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	238.71M	315.91M	90.22M	184.50M	48.58M
Total Debt	1.33B	1.27B	732.51M	716.43M	471.84M
Total Liabilities	1.43B	1.39B	835.19M	815.05M	558.73M
Stockholders Equity	-736.76M	-675.59M	-457.37M	-390.86M	-309.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	105.62M	105.68M	80.77M	52.30M	20.86M
Operating Cash Flow	153.06M	157.61M	121.60M	76.24M	48.88M
Investing Cash Flow	-17.46M	-62.48M	-52.15M	-28.68M	-29.85M
Financing Cash Flow	-266.73M	144.76M	-155.49M	103.25M	-23.39M

Wingstop Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 199.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WING, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 199.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 238.33, below the 50-day MA of 254.82, and below the 200-day MA of 281.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -15.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.07 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WING.

Wingstop Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DPZ	67 Neutral	$13.32B	23.81	-15.28%	1.63%	3.92%	4.98%
TXRH	67 Neutral	$11.27B	32.67	28.20%	1.63%	14.40%	12.45%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
WING	61 Neutral	$5.44B	41.12	-24.54%	0.45%	15.56%	79.02%
SHAK	58 Neutral	$3.86B	71.38	9.14%	―	13.49%	402.23%
WEN	57 Neutral	$1.33B	9.79	140.58%	8.15%	-0.21%	0.16%
PZZA	48 Neutral	$1.17B	42.31	-6.99%	4.72%	-0.64%	-60.71%

Wingstop Corporate Events

Wingstop Expands Share Repurchase Authorization to $300 Million

On March 11, 2026, Wingstop Inc. said its board authorized the purchase of up to an additional $300 million of common stock under its existing share repurchase program, effective immediately. The move follows nearly $700 million invested in buybacks since the program began in August 2023, including just over 1.2 million shares repurchased in 2025, leaving about $53.4 million under the prior authorization.

Management framed the expanded authorization as a continuation of its disciplined capital allocation strategy, balancing long-term growth investment with returning excess capital to shareholders. Wingstop plans to fund the repurchases with existing cash, cash equivalents, and operating cash flow, underscoring confidence in its asset-light model and cash generation while giving the company flexibility to adjust the pace of buybacks based on market and business conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (WING) stock is a Buy with a $249.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wingstop stock, see the WING Stock Forecast page.

Wingstop Posts Record 2025 Growth Despite Sales Decline

Wingstop Inc. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026, highlighting record expansion with 493 net new openings and entry into six new international markets, bringing the system-wide total to 3,056 restaurants. Despite a 3.3% decline in domestic same-store sales for 2025 and a 5.8% drop in the fourth quarter, system-wide sales rose 12.1% to $5.3 billion, and net income surged 60.3% to $174.3 million, supported by a 15.2% increase in adjusted EBITDA and strong digital sales at 73.2% of system-wide sales.

Management emphasized operational initiatives such as rolling out the Wingstop Smart Kitchen across 2,586 domestic locations in 10 months, while fourth-quarter revenue climbed 8.6% year over year to $175.7 million, aided by higher advertising fees and royalty revenue tied to unit growth. The company introduced 2026 guidance calling for flat to low-single-digit domestic same-store sales growth, 15%–16% global unit growth and elevated SG&A reflecting restructuring charges, and it continued its capital return strategy with a $0.30 per-share quarterly dividend authorized on February 17, 2026 and ongoing share repurchases, leaving $91.3 million available under its buyback program at year-end 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (WING) stock is a Buy with a $335.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wingstop stock, see the WING Stock Forecast page.

Wingstop Reinstates COO Role to Drive Global Growth

On January 7, 2026, Wingstop Inc. reinstated the role of Chief Operating Officer and appointed Rajneesh (Raj) Kapoor, formerly President of International, to the position to oversee domestic and international franchise development and operations as well as company-owned restaurants. Kapoor’s appointment, which includes a $625,000 base salary and a $450,000 target annual bonus for fiscal 2026, together with the reassignment of duties for Senior Vice President Marisa J. Carona and Senior Vice President and General Counsel Albert McGrath, signals an organizational realignment aimed at strengthening operational oversight and supporting the company’s expansion across its global footprint.

The most recent analyst rating on (WING) stock is a Hold with a $292.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wingstop stock, see the WING Stock Forecast page.