Wingstop (WING)
NASDAQ:WING
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Wingstop
(NASDAQ:WING)
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Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$175.00
▲(3.84% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/12/26
The score is anchored by strong profitability and cash generation but meaningfully tempered by balance-sheet risk (negative equity). Technicals are a major drag given the stock’s clear downtrend and weak momentum. Valuation is relatively rich, while the earnings call and corporate actions provide partial support through strong unit-growth plans and shareholder returns despite near-term same-store sales and execution headwinds.
Positive Factors
Asset-light, franchise cash generation
An asset-light franchise model drives consistently positive operating and free cash flow, with operating cash flow exceeding net income across years. That durable cash generation funds buybacks, dividends and reinvestment while limiting corporate capex, supporting long-term shareholder returns and growth funding flexibility.
Negative Factors
Negative shareholders' equity
Persistently negative equity and volatile debt levels materially weaken the balance sheet, distort leverage metrics and reduce financial flexibility. In downturns this capital structure raises refinancing and covenant risks, limits corporate ability to absorb shocks, and constrains strategic optionality over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset-light, franchise cash generation
An asset-light franchise model drives consistently positive operating and free cash flow, with operating cash flow exceeding net income across years. That durable cash generation funds buybacks, dividends and reinvestment while limiting corporate capex, supporting long-term shareholder returns and growth funding flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Wingstop (WING) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.63B
Dividend Yield0.45%
Average Volume (3M)1.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.1
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth15.56%
EPS Growth79.02%
CountryUS
Employees325
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.00
Shares Outstanding27,484,570
10 Day Avg. Volume1,350,066
30 Day Avg. Volume1,150,536
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)-9.73
Price to Sales (P/S)10.28
P/FCF Ratio67.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$294.30Price Target Upside74.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)4.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)$802.98M
Wingstop Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand name. Its restaurants offer classic wings, boneless wings, and tenders that are cooked-to-order, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in various flav...
How the Company Makes Money
Wingstop makes money primarily through a franchise-led revenue model rather than company-operated restaurant sales. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) royalties paid by franchisees, typically calculated as a percentage of franchise restaur...
Wingstop Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, highlighting which areas drive sales and where there might be room for expansion or improvement.
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, highlighting which areas drive sales and where there might be room for expansion or improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWingstop Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong strategic and structural progress—record unit development (493 openings), full deployment of the Wingstop Smart Kitchen, meaningful international expansion, solid profitability (adjusted EBITDA growth ~15%) and promising loyalty pilot results—while acknowledging near-term operating headwinds driven by macro pressures, the first annual same-store sales decline in 22 years (‑3% for 2025 and ‑5.8% in Q4), and execution gaps in matching improved in-restaurant speed to third-party delivery times. Management presented concrete operational levers (Smart Kitchen execution, incentives, retraining, loyalty, marketing) and set conservative 2026 comp guidance (flat to low single-digit) alongside an aggressive unit-growth plan (15–16% global growth), signaling confidence in long-term upside despite short-term challenges.Positive Updates
Record Unit Development and System-wide Sales
Opened 493 restaurants globally in 2025; system-wide sales grew to over $5.0 billion for the year. System-wide sales growth of ~12% for the full year and Q4 system-wide sales of $1.3 billion, up ~9.3% versus 2024. Brand partner commitments of ~2,300 restaurants provide line-of-sight to mid-teens global unit growth in 2026 (guidance: 15–16%).
Negative Updates
Same-Store Sales Decline
Full-year same-store sales declined ~3% (first same-store sales decline in 22 years). Domestic same-store sales declined ~5.8% in Q4 2025. 2026 same-store sales guidance is conservative: flat to low single-digit growth, reflecting a choppy consumer backdrop.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Unit Development and System-wide Sales
Opened 493 restaurants globally in 2025; system-wide sales grew to over $5.0 billion for the year. System-wide sales growth of ~12% for the full year and Q4 system-wide sales of $1.3 billion, up ~9.3% versus 2024. Brand partner commitments of ~2,300 restaurants provide line-of-sight to mid-teens global unit growth in 2026 (guidance: 15–16%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 Wingstop guided domestic same‑store sales to be flat to low‑single‑digit growth while expecting global unit growth of 15–16% (well above its long‑term ~10% algorithm) with first‑half openings a bit lighter; management sees adjusted EBITDA growing ~15%, SG&A of $151–154 million (including about $32M of stock‑based compensation and $3M of restructuring charges), company‑owned cost of sales around 75%, and continued progress toward $3.0M AUVs from current domestic AUVs of $2.0M (corporate AUVs approaching $2.5M).Wingstop Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 696.85M | 625.81M | 460.06M | 357.52M | 282.50M |
| Gross Profit | 575.73M | 300.87M | 222.83M | 171.06M | 141.10M |
| EBITDA | 217.23M | 187.97M | 125.78M | 101.44M | 81.83M |
| Net Income | 174.27M | 108.72M | 70.17M | 52.95M | 42.66M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 693.41M | 716.25M | 377.82M | 424.19M | 249.20M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 238.71M | 315.91M | 90.22M | 184.50M | 48.58M |
| Total Debt | 1.33B | 1.27B | 732.51M | 716.43M | 471.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.43B | 1.39B | 835.19M | 815.05M | 558.73M |
| Stockholders Equity | -736.76M | -675.59M | -457.37M | -390.86M | -309.52M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 105.62M | 105.68M | 80.77M | 52.30M | 20.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 153.06M | 157.61M | 121.60M | 76.24M | 48.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.46M | -62.48M | -52.15M | -28.68M | -29.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -266.73M | 144.76M | -155.49M | 103.25M | -23.39M |
Wingstop Technical Analysis
Negative
168.53
Price Trends
224.80
Negative
239.35
Negative
266.84
Negative
Market Momentum
-20.51
Negative
37.27
Neutral
50.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WING, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 168.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 177.79, below the 50-day MA of 224.80, and below the 200-day MA of 266.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -20.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WING.
Wingstop Risk Analysis
Wingstop disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Wingstop reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Wingstop Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $12.65B | 23.81 | -15.28% | 1.63% | 3.92% | 4.98% | |
67 Neutral | $10.99B | 32.67 | 28.20% | 1.63% | 14.40% | 12.45% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $4.63B | 41.12 | -24.54% | 0.45% | 15.56% | 79.02% | |
60 Neutral | $4.18B | 71.38 | 9.14% | ― | 13.49% | 402.23% | |
57 Neutral | $1.34B | 9.79 | 140.58% | 8.15% | -0.21% | 0.16% | |
48 Neutral | $1.16B | 42.31 | -6.99% | 4.72% | -0.64% | -60.71% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
WING
Wingstop
168.53
-76.61
-31.25%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
376.24
-72.51
-16.16%
PZZA
Papa John's International
35.37
3.03
9.36%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
166.78
3.39
2.07%
WEN
Wendy's
7.06
-5.29
-42.82%
SHAK
Shake Shack
97.86
10.24
11.69%
Wingstop Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Wingstop Expands Share Repurchase Authorization to $300 Million
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Wingstop Inc. said its board authorized the purchase of up to an additional $300 million of common stock under its existing share repurchase program, effective immediately. The move follows nearly $700 million invested in buybac...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Wingstop Posts Record 2025 Growth Despite Sales Decline
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Wingstop Inc. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026, highlighting record expansion with 493 net new openings and entry into six new international markets, bringing the system-wide total to 3,056 restaurants. D...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Wingstop Reinstates COO Role to Drive Global Growth
Positive
Jan 14, 2026
On January 7, 2026, Wingstop Inc. reinstated the role of Chief Operating Officer and appointed Rajneesh (Raj) Kapoor, formerly President of International, to the position to oversee domestic and international franchise development and operations a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.