Wingstop (WING) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.75B
• Dividend Yield: 0.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 784.80K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 45.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 15.56%
• EPS Growth: 79.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 325
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 1.00
• Shares Outstanding: 27,786,854
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,315,471
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 784,804
• PEG Ratio: 0.61
• Price to Book (P/B): -9.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 10.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 67.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.89
• 1Y Price Target: $331.75
• Price Target Upside: 27.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 22
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.7
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $808.49M

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $296.00 ▲(13.46% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score reflects strong profitability and cash generation but is held back by a high-risk balance sheet (negative equity) and a cautious near-term same-store sales outlook. Technicals are mixed (MACD negative, below 200-day average), and valuation is elevated (high P/E with a modest dividend yield), limiting upside unless execution improves and comps stabilize.

Positive Factors

Franchise-led unit economics

Strong unit economics and a low franchise capex requirement support a capital-light growth model that transfers development risk to brand partners. High AUVs and improving unit-level margins create durable royalty and fee cash flow, enabling scalable global expansion without heavy corporate capex.

Cash generation & margin expansion

Consistent operating cash generation and rising net margins indicate high-quality earnings and internal funding capacity. Positive FCF supports shareholder returns, reinvestment in technology and unit growth, and cushions the business through cyclical traffic swings, strengthening long-term financial resilience.

Smart Kitchen operational upgrade

Rapid, full-system deployment of the Smart Kitchen demonstrates operational execution and offers lasting efficiency gains. Faster tickets and improved delivery times where achieved raise throughput, lower unit-level costs, and can sustainably boost frequency and margins as systems are standardized and best practices scale.

Negative Factors

Negative shareholders' equity

Persistently negative equity reflects aggressive capital returns and/or restructuring, weakening the firm’s solvency metrics. This reduces financial flexibility, raises refinancing risk and cost, and can constrain the company’s ability to fund growth or absorb shocks without taking on more expensive financing or diluting shareholders.

Same-store sales weakness

Sustained SSS declines undermine royalty-based revenue growth and signal demand softness among core customers. Even with aggressive unit growth, stalled comps limit system-wide sales per restaurant, reducing the revenue leverage from new openings and pressuring long-term margin and cash-flow trajectory.

Delivery fulfillment & execution variability

Delivery execution shortfalls and wide operational dispersion weaken the value of digital sales (73% of system sales). Persistent variability can cap frequency gains from loyalty and marketing, raise operating costs for rework or incentives, and limit sustainable AUV and margin improvement across the system.

Wingstop Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand name. Its restaurants offer classic wings, boneless wings, and tenders that are cooked-to-order, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in various flavors. As of December 25, 2021, the company had 1,695 franchised restaurants and 36 company-owned restaurants in 44 states and 7 countries worldwide. Wingstop Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Addison, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Wingstop generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its restaurants. The company operates a dual revenue model that includes company-operated locations and franchised restaurants. Revenue from company-owned stores contributes directly to its earnings, while franchise fees and ongoing royalties from franchisees provide a significant revenue stream. Key revenue sources include sales of chicken wings, sides, and drinks, while franchisees pay an initial franchise fee and ongoing royalties based on their gross sales. Additionally, Wingstop has expanded its digital ordering and delivery services, enhancing customer convenience and driving sales growth. The company's strategic partnerships with delivery platforms also contribute to its revenue by increasing accessibility for customers.

Wingstop Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is strong (Income Statement score 82; Cash Flow score 78) with rapid revenue growth, meaningful net margin expansion, and consistently positive free cash flow. However, the Balance Sheet score is very weak (34) due to persistently negative equity and volatile debt levels, which raises financial risk and reduces flexibility.

Income Statement

Wingstop shows strong top-line momentum and improving profitability. Revenue has grown rapidly over the period (notably accelerating in 2025), while net margins expanded meaningfully from ~9% (2020) to ~25% (2025). EBITDA margin also strengthened vs. prior years, indicating good operating leverage. Key weakness: 2025 gross profit and margin are shown as 0, and EBIT margin is also shown as 0, which looks like a data issue and limits margin quality checks for the most recent year.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is the primary concern. Stockholders’ equity is negative across all years and becomes more negative over time, which increases financial risk and makes equity-based strength indicators less meaningful. Debt levels are volatile (very high in 2024 vs. other years), and the negative equity leads to distorted leverage ratios. While total assets have grown, the capital structure remains aggressive and reduces financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and generally supportive of earnings quality. Operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income (roughly 1.2x–1.9x across the years), and free cash flow is positive each year with a step-up over time (strong growth in 2022 and again in 2025). A watch item is that free cash flow is typically below net income (about ~43%–91%), suggesting ongoing reinvestment needs and/or working-capital and other cash timing impacts.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	696.85M	625.81M	460.06M	357.52M	282.50M
Gross Profit	575.73M	300.87M	222.83M	171.06M	141.10M
EBITDA	217.23M	187.97M	125.78M	101.44M	81.83M
Net Income	174.27M	108.72M	70.17M	52.95M	42.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	693.41M	716.25M	377.82M	424.19M	249.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	238.71M	315.91M	90.22M	184.50M	48.58M
Total Debt	1.33B	1.27B	732.51M	716.43M	471.84M
Total Liabilities	1.43B	1.39B	835.19M	815.05M	558.73M
Stockholders Equity	-736.76M	-675.59M	-457.37M	-390.86M	-309.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	105.62M	105.68M	80.77M	52.30M	20.86M
Operating Cash Flow	153.06M	157.61M	121.60M	76.24M	48.88M
Investing Cash Flow	-17.46M	-62.48M	-52.15M	-28.68M	-29.85M
Financing Cash Flow	-266.73M	144.76M	-155.49M	103.25M	-23.39M

Wingstop Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 260.89
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WING, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 260.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 263.37, above the 50-day MA of 259.77, and below the 200-day MA of 287.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for WING.

Wingstop Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DPZ	68 Neutral	$12.94B	22.38	―	1.63%	3.92%	4.98%
TXRH	68 Neutral	$12.36B	28.54	28.77%	1.63%	14.40%	12.45%
WING	62 Neutral	$7.75B	44.96	―	0.45%	15.56%	79.02%
SHAK	62 Neutral	$4.02B	91.53	8.83%	―	13.49%	402.23%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
PZZA	57 Neutral	$1.08B	28.95	―	4.72%	-0.64%	-60.71%
WEN	57 Neutral	$1.56B	9.62	87.63%	8.15%	-0.21%	0.16%

Wingstop Corporate Events

Wingstop Posts Record 2025 Growth Despite Sales Decline

Wingstop Inc. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026, highlighting record expansion with 493 net new openings and entry into six new international markets, bringing the system-wide total to 3,056 restaurants. Despite a 3.3% decline in domestic same-store sales for 2025 and a 5.8% drop in the fourth quarter, system-wide sales rose 12.1% to $5.3 billion, and net income surged 60.3% to $174.3 million, supported by a 15.2% increase in adjusted EBITDA and strong digital sales at 73.2% of system-wide sales.

Management emphasized operational initiatives such as rolling out the Wingstop Smart Kitchen across 2,586 domestic locations in 10 months, while fourth-quarter revenue climbed 8.6% year over year to $175.7 million, aided by higher advertising fees and royalty revenue tied to unit growth. The company introduced 2026 guidance calling for flat to low-single-digit domestic same-store sales growth, 15%–16% global unit growth and elevated SG&A reflecting restructuring charges, and it continued its capital return strategy with a $0.30 per-share quarterly dividend authorized on February 17, 2026 and ongoing share repurchases, leaving $91.3 million available under its buyback program at year-end 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (WING) stock is a Buy with a $335.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wingstop stock, see the WING Stock Forecast page.

Wingstop Reinstates COO Role to Drive Global Growth

On January 7, 2026, Wingstop Inc. reinstated the role of Chief Operating Officer and appointed Rajneesh (Raj) Kapoor, formerly President of International, to the position to oversee domestic and international franchise development and operations as well as company-owned restaurants. Kapoor’s appointment, which includes a $625,000 base salary and a $450,000 target annual bonus for fiscal 2026, together with the reassignment of duties for Senior Vice President Marisa J. Carona and Senior Vice President and General Counsel Albert McGrath, signals an organizational realignment aimed at strengthening operational oversight and supporting the company’s expansion across its global footprint.

The most recent analyst rating on (WING) stock is a Hold with a $292.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wingstop stock, see the WING Stock Forecast page.