Wingstop (WING) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.20B
• Dividend Yield: 0.44%
• Average Volume (3M): 770.05K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 42.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 15.56%
• EPS Growth: 79.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 325
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 1.09
• Shares Outstanding: 27,786,854
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 850,281
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 770,046
• PEG Ratio: 1.33
• Price to Book (P/B): -12.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 13.34
• P/FCF Ratio: 79.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 26.92
• 1Y Price Target: $334.45
• Price Target Upside: 31.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 22
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.92
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $700.15M

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $262.00 ▲(3.01% Upside)

Wingstop's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and growth prospects, tempered by high leverage and valuation concerns. The earnings call provided optimism for future growth, but technical indicators suggest mixed momentum. The company's strategic initiatives and expansion plans are promising, yet financial risks and valuation constraints need careful monitoring.

Positive Factors

Global Expansion

Wingstop's rapid global expansion into new markets strengthens its market position and supports long-term revenue growth.

Technological Advancements

The Smart Kitchen enhances operational efficiency and customer satisfaction, supporting sustainable growth and competitive advantage.

Franchise Model Strength

The asset-light franchise model allows for scalable growth with lower capital expenditure, enhancing profitability and return on investment.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Decline in Same-Store Sales

Declining same-store sales indicate potential challenges in maintaining customer loyalty and market share, affecting revenue stability.

Softness in Consumer Segments

Weakness in key consumer segments may limit growth and require strategic adjustments to address changing consumer preferences.

Wingstop Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand name. Its restaurants offer classic wings, boneless wings, and tenders that are cooked-to-order, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in various flavors. As of December 25, 2021, the company had 1,695 franchised restaurants and 36 company-owned restaurants in 44 states and 7 countries worldwide. Wingstop Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Addison, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Wingstop generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its restaurants. The company operates a dual revenue model that includes company-operated locations and franchised restaurants. Revenue from company-owned stores contributes directly to its earnings, while franchise fees and ongoing royalties from franchisees provide a significant revenue stream. Key revenue sources include sales of chicken wings, sides, and drinks, while franchisees pay an initial franchise fee and ongoing royalties based on their gross sales. Additionally, Wingstop has expanded its digital ordering and delivery services, enhancing customer convenience and driving sales growth. The company's strategic partnerships with delivery platforms also contribute to its revenue by increasing accessibility for customers.

Wingstop Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Wingstop shows strong revenue growth and profitability, but its high leverage and negative equity position pose significant financial risks. While cash flow from operations is stable, declining free cash flow could constrain future financial flexibility. The company needs to address its balance sheet weaknesses to sustain long-term growth.

Income Statement

Wingstop has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.86%. The company maintains strong profitability with a TTM net profit margin of 25.61% and an EBIT margin of 38.98%. However, the gross profit margin has slightly decreased over time, indicating potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows high leverage with a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -1.85, indicating significant financial risk. The negative stockholders' equity suggests potential solvency issues. Return on equity is negative, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains positive, with a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.52. However, free cash flow has declined by 37.62% in the TTM period, which may impact future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	682.98M	625.81M	460.06M	357.52M	282.50M	248.81M
Gross Profit	330.61M	300.87M	222.83M	171.06M	141.10M	122.90M
EBITDA	293.85M	187.97M	125.78M	101.44M	81.83M	51.24M
Net Income	174.26M	108.72M	70.17M	52.95M	42.66M	23.31M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	721.03M	716.25M	377.82M	424.19M	249.20M	211.56M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	286.11M	315.91M	90.22M	184.50M	48.58M	40.86M
Total Debt	1.27B	1.27B	732.51M	716.43M	471.84M	472.92M
Total Liabilities	1.42B	1.39B	835.19M	815.05M	558.73M	552.88M
Stockholders Equity	-702.62M	-675.59M	-457.37M	-390.86M	-309.52M	-341.31M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	62.54M	105.68M	80.77M	52.30M	20.86M	59.48M
Operating Cash Flow	103.49M	157.61M	121.60M	76.24M	48.88M	65.53M
Investing Cash Flow	2.34M	-62.48M	-52.15M	-28.68M	-29.85M	-7.99M
Financing Cash Flow	35.65M	144.76M	-155.49M	103.25M	-23.39M	-19.45M

Wingstop Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 254.35
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WING, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 254.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 253.82, above the 50-day MA of 246.99, and below the 200-day MA of 279.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for WING.

Wingstop Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TXRH	72 Outperform	$11.63B	26.85	31.55%	1.57%	14.40%	12.45%
DPZ	68 Neutral	$14.58B	25.22	―	1.61%	3.92%	4.98%
WEN	65 Neutral	$1.60B	8.88	100.85%	8.08%	-0.21%	0.16%
WING	63 Neutral	$7.20B	42.31	―	0.44%	15.56%	79.02%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SHAK	60 Neutral	$3.66B	82.05	8.83%	―	13.49%	402.23%
PZZA	57 Neutral	$1.34B	36.03	―	4.57%	-0.64%	-60.71%

Wingstop Corporate Events

Wingstop Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

Wingstop Inc. reported its fiscal third quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a record 114 net new openings and an 18.6% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $63.7 million. Despite a 5.6% decline in domestic same store sales, system-wide sales rose by 10% to $1.4 billion, driven by digital sales and strategic investments. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share, reflecting its strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders. Wingstop’s continued expansion and robust financial performance reinforce its vision to become a top 10 global restaurant brand.

Wingstop Approves Significant Retention Award for CEO

On September 11, 2025, Wingstop Inc.’s Board of Directors approved a significant retention equity award for CEO Michael J. Skipworth, consisting of performance-based and service-based restricted stock units, each valued at $12.5 million. This move aims to retain and incentivize Skipworth, aligning his interests with shareholders and potentially impacting the company’s leadership stability and strategic direction.