Wingstop Inc. (WING)
NASDAQ:WING
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Wingstop
(NASDAQ:WING)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$141.00
▼(-28.19% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
Score is driven primarily by strong operating performance and cash generation, partially offset by meaningful balance-sheet risk from deeply negative equity. Technicals are a major headwind with a clear downtrend versus all key moving averages and negative momentum. Valuation is somewhat demanding at ~35.5x earnings with only a modest dividend, while the latest earnings call was supportive on unit growth and shareholder returns but tempered by weaker same-store sales guidance and near-term consumer/execution pressures.
Positive Factors
Franchise model and unit economics
An asset-light franchised model with strong unit economics (AUV ~ $2.0M; payback <2 years) and a >2,200-restaurant pipeline enables scalable, low-capex royalty and fee revenue. Durable unit growth guidance (15%–16%) supports recurring cash flows and long-term margin leverage for the company.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative shareholders' equity
Persistently negative shareholders' equity (~-$799M TTM) materially weakens balance-sheet resilience. Even after debt reduction, negative equity constrains financing flexibility, may limit strategic options, raises lender and covenant sensitivity, and elevates the firm's vulnerability to prolonged downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Franchise model and unit economics
An asset-light franchised model with strong unit economics (AUV ~ $2.0M; payback <2 years) and a >2,200-restaurant pipeline enables scalable, low-capex royalty and fee revenue. Durable unit growth guidance (15%–16%) supports recurring cash flows and long-term margin leverage for the company.
Read all positive factors
Wingstop Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, highlighting which areas drive sales and where there might be room for expansion or improvement.
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, highlighting which areas drive sales and where there might be room for expansion or improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWingstop (WING) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.82B
Dividend Yield0.45%
Average Volume (3M)1.46M
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.5
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth8.96%
EPS Growth-32.63%
CountryUS
Employees325
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.04
Shares Outstanding27,232,553
10 Day Avg. Volume1,412,151
30 Day Avg. Volume1,461,855
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)-9.73
Price to Sales (P/S)10.28
P/FCF Ratio67.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.72
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$239.24Price Target Upside21.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering25
EPS Forecast (FY)4.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$779.63M
Wingstop Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand name. Its restaurants offer classic wings, boneless wings, and tenders that are cooked-to-order, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in various flav...
How the Company Makes Money
Wingstop makes money primarily through a franchise-led revenue model rather than company-operated restaurant sales. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) royalties paid by franchisees, typically calculated as a percentage of franchise restaur...
Wingstop Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mixed but broadly constructive picture: meaningful growth and momentum in unit development, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, loyalty pilot traction, operational improvements from the Wingstop Smart Kitchen, and strong franchise economics and capital return programs are significant positives. Offsetting these are a substantial Q1 same-store sales decline (8.7%), notable macro and weather headwinds (estimated ~4 percentage point hit), and continued work required to scale Smart Kitchen and delivery performance systemwide. Management expects normalization and a return to same-store sales growth in the second half of the year as initiatives scale.Positive Updates
Unit Growth and Global Expansion
Opened 97 net new restaurants in Q1, representing ~17% unit growth year-over-year; pipeline at more than 2,200 restaurant commitments and on track to enter India in 2026. Management reiterated 2026 global unit growth guidance of 15%–16%.
Negative Updates
Significant Same-Store Sales Decline
Domestic same-store sales declined 8.7% in Q1; management updated full-year outlook to expect same-store sales down low single digits and guided to a mid-single-digit decline in comps for Q2 before gradual improvement in H2.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Unit Growth and Global Expansion
Opened 97 net new restaurants in Q1, representing ~17% unit growth year-over-year; pipeline at more than 2,200 restaurant commitments and on track to enter India in 2026. Management reiterated 2026 global unit growth guidance of 15%–16%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Wingstop updated 2026 guidance that now assumes domestic same‑store sales down low single digits (Q1 comps were -8.7%, with an estimated ~4 percentage‑point headwind from atypical winter weather and higher fuel), and reiterated global unit growth of 15%–16% (Q1 openings: 97 net new restaurants, +17% unit growth; pipeline: >2,200 commitments). Financial guidance and results highlighted: system‑wide sales $1.4B (+5.9%), total revenue $183.7M (+7.4%), adjusted EBITDA $65.4M (+9.9%), Q1 net income $30M ($1.08 diluted) and adjusted EPS $1.18 (+19.2%); trailing‑12 month system sales >$5.4B. Full‑year operating assumptions include SG&A of $146M–$149M (inc. $3M restructuring and $28M stock‑based comp), net interest ≈ $43M and depreciation & amortization ≈ $30M; other unit economics: domestic AUV ≈ $2M with an AUV target of $3M, ~$580K upfront investment and brand‑partner payback <2 years. Capital returns announced: quarterly dividend $0.30/share (~$8.2M) and Q1 repurchases of 374,324 shares at an average $208.08 (additional $300M authorized; $313.4M remaining under program).Wingstop Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 709.48M | 696.85M | 625.81M | 460.06M | 357.52M | 282.50M |
| Gross Profit | 585.86M | 575.73M | 300.87M | 222.83M | 171.06M | 141.10M |
| EBITDA | 224.58M | 217.23M | 187.97M | 125.78M | 101.44M | 81.83M |
| Net Income | 111.88M | 174.27M | 108.72M | 70.17M | 52.95M | 42.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 648.89M | 693.41M | 716.25M | 377.82M | 424.19M | 249.20M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 128.82M | 238.71M | 315.91M | 90.22M | 184.50M | 48.58M |
| Total Debt | 60.58M | 1.33B | 1.27B | 732.51M | 716.43M | 471.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.45B | 1.43B | 1.39B | 835.19M | 815.05M | 558.73M |
| Stockholders Equity | -799.17M | -736.76M | -675.59M | -457.37M | -390.86M | -309.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 132.01M | 105.62M | 105.68M | 80.77M | 52.30M | 20.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 189.15M | 153.06M | 157.61M | 121.60M | 76.24M | 48.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -75.68M | -17.46M | -62.48M | -52.15M | -28.68M | -29.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -221.79M | -266.73M | 144.76M | -155.49M | 103.25M | -23.39M |
Wingstop Technical Analysis
Negative
196.34
Price Trends
162.53
Negative
208.74
Negative
236.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-11.02
Negative
44.27
Neutral
89.72
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WING, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 196.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 139.45, above the 50-day MA of 162.53, and below the 200-day MA of 236.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -11.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.72 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WING.
Wingstop Risk Analysis
Wingstop disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Wingstop reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Wingstop Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $11.67B | 22.05 | 28.21% | 1.63% | 10.25% | -3.61% | |
62 Neutral | $3.82B | 35.51 | -15.30% | 0.45% | 8.96% | -32.63% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $1.49B | 7.07 | 150.73% | 8.15% | -1.84% | -17.48% | |
59 Neutral | $10.53B | 22.18 | -15.04% | 1.63% | 5.17% | -0.62% | |
51 Neutral | $2.68B | -3,149.84 | 8.02% | ― | 16.22% | 228.81% | |
50 Neutral | $1.10B | 36.76 | -6.47% | 4.72% | -2.41% | -64.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
WING
Wingstop
140.63
-196.03
-58.23%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
310.42
-166.07
-34.85%
PZZA
Papa John's International
32.70
-9.55
-22.60%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
182.20
-14.46
-7.35%
WEN
Wendy's
7.36
-3.19
-30.22%
SHAK
Shake Shack
61.82
-64.53
-51.07%
Wingstop Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Wingstop Shareholders Approve Governance and Bylaw Amendments
Positive
May 22, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 21, 2026, Wingstop shareholders approved an amendment to the company’s Certificate of Incorporation granting the Board of Directors explicit authority to adopt, amend or repeal the compa...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Wingstop Declares Dividend and Expands Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
In its fiscal first quarter ended March 28, 2026, Wingstop Inc. reported system-wide sales of $1.4 billion, up 5.9% year on year, supported by 97 net new openings and 17% unit growth, despite an 8.7% decline in domestic same-store sales driven by ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Wingstop Expands Share Repurchase Authorization to $300 Million
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Wingstop Inc. said its board authorized the purchase of up to an additional $300 million of common stock under its existing share repurchase program, effective immediately. The move follows nearly $700 million invested in buybac...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.