Jack In The Box (JACK) AI Stock Analysis

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Jack In The Box

(NASDAQ:JACK)

Rating:50Neutral

Price Target:

$21.00

▲(9.20%Upside)

The overall stock score is impacted primarily by financial challenges, with declining revenue and profitability and a heavily leveraged balance sheet. Technical analysis shows some short-term momentum, but long-term trends are negative. Despite a high dividend yield, the valuation is hampered by a negative P/E ratio. Earnings call sentiment is negative, reflecting ongoing operational and economic challenges, although the appointment of a new CFO is a positive step towards improvement.

Positive Factors

Business Simplification

The sale of Del Taco is viewed as a positive step toward simplifying JACK's business.

Debt Reduction

The Jack on Track plan aims to improve system health and help pay down $300M of leverage, reducing net debt/EBITDA from 5.3x to 4.3x.

Financial Performance

Despite the challenging sales environment, 2Q adjusted EBITDA was guided between $66M to $68M, exceeding the estimate of $60.9M.

Negative Factors

Customer Traffic

The recent T-Pain Munchie Meal launch does not appear to be generating a meaningful increase in customer traffic.

Market Environment

Aggressive immigration policies are likely to create a significant sales headwind for an unpredictable period.

Sales Performance

Jack reported preliminary 2Q same store sales of -4.4%, missing the estimate of -2.0%.

Jack In The Box (JACK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$363.05M

Dividend Yield9.15%

Average Volume (3M)853.08K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.90

Revenue Growth-6.02%

EPS Growth-289.54%

CountryUS

Employees1,606

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength61

IndustryRestaurants

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.20

Shares Outstanding18,879,446

10 Day Avg. Volume923,973

30 Day Avg. Volume853,080

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.83

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.27

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.74

Enterprise Value/Ebitda25.87

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$28.08

Price Target Upside46.02% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering13

Jack In The Box Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJack in the Box Inc. operates and franchises Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants. As of November 23, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 2,200 Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants in 21 states and Guam. The company was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyJack in the Box generates revenue primarily through sales at its company-operated restaurants and from franchise royalties and fees. The company-operated restaurants account for a significant portion of its earnings, driven by customer purchases of food and beverages. Franchise operations also contribute substantially to revenue, as franchisees pay initial franchise fees, ongoing royalties, and other related fees to the corporation. Additionally, Jack in the Box benefits from strategic marketing partnerships and promotional campaigns that enhance brand visibility and drive customer traffic to its locations.

Jack In The Box Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Restaurant Count Breakdown

Restaurant Count Breakdown
Details the number of restaurants by type or location, offering insight into market penetration and expansion strategy.

Chart InsightsJack in the Box's restaurant count has been declining since 2019, with a slight recovery in 2023, but recent earnings highlight ongoing challenges. The company is closing underperforming locations as part of its Jack on Track plan, which aims to streamline operations and focus on digital growth. Del Taco, acquired in 2021, also faces pressures with a recent decline in store count and significant asset impairment. Despite technological advancements boosting digital sales, economic headwinds and declining margins pose risks to growth and profitability.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Jack In The Box Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -25.09%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Negative

The earnings call reflects a company facing significant challenges with declining same-store sales, lower margins, and economic pressures. Despite this, there are positive strides in digital sales and technological advancements as part of their strategic plan. However, the lowlights outweigh the highlights, indicating a challenging period ahead.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Digital Sales Growth

Jack in the Box has achieved 18% digital sales systemwide and aims to reach 20% ahead of schedule. The rollout of new point-of-sale systems and flip kiosks in 1,500 restaurants has contributed to this growth.

Technological Advancements

The company is implementing a new POS system and flip kiosks, which have been installed in nearly 1,500 locations, as part of its tech modernization and digital evolution strategy.

Commitment to Long-term Growth

The Jack on Track plan focuses on simplifying the company’s structure, strengthening the balance sheet, closing underperforming restaurants, and preserving growth-oriented capital investments.

Negative Updates

Decline in Same-store Sales

Jack brand same-store sales decreased by 4.4%, with franchise and company-owned sales both seeing declines. Del Taco experienced a 3.6% decline in system same-store sales.

Decreased Restaurant Level Margin

Jack in the Box's restaurant level margin decreased to 19.6%, down from 23.6% a year ago, due to lower sales and increased costs. Del Taco's restaurant level margin was 12.8%, down 400 basis points.

Noncash Goodwill and Intangible Asset Impairment

The company recorded a noncash goodwill and intangible asset impairment of $203.2 million for the Del Taco reporting unit, resulting in a GAAP diluted loss per share for the quarter.

Negative Traffic and Economic Pressure

The company faces significant pressure from multiple-income cohorts and negative traffic, with challenges exacerbated by economic headwinds and reliance on low-income consumers.

Restaurant Openings and Closures

There were five restaurant openings and 12 closures in the quarter, with a continued focus on closing underperforming units.

Company Guidance

During the Jack in the Box Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, several key metrics and guidance were provided, reflecting the company's ongoing strategies and challenges. The company reported a same-store sales decrease of 4.4% for the Jack brand, with franchise sales down 4.5% and company-owned sales declining by 4%. Digital sales have reached 18% systemwide, aided by the rollout of new point-of-sale systems and kiosks in approximately 1,500 restaurants. The restaurant-level margin for Jack decreased to 19.6% from 23.6% due to sales declines and inflationary pressures. Del Taco saw a system same-store sales decline of 3.6%, with franchise sales down 4.2% and company-owned sales decreasing by 1.7%. Del Taco's restaurant-level margin fell to 12.8%. The company also recorded a noncash goodwill and intangible asset impairment of $203.2 million for Del Taco. Jack in the Box reiterated its commitment to its Jack on Track plan, focusing on digital growth, technological modernization, and strategic closures to drive long-term sustainable growth.

Jack In The Box Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Jack In The Box faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue, profitability, and cash flow issues. The balance sheet is heavily leveraged with negative equity, posing risks to financial stability.

Income Statement

Neutral

The company has shown a declining revenue trend from $1.692 billion in 2023 to $1.571 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2024, indicating challenges in maintaining growth. Net profit margin has turned negative at -2.34% in TTM 2024, compared to 7.73% in 2023, showing a significant drop in profitability. The gross profit margin also decreased from 76.79% in 2023 to 27.70% in TTM 2024. While the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain relatively stable, the overall income statement reflects concerns regarding decreasing revenue and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The total liabilities exceed total assets, resulting in a negative equity position. The company's return on equity is not calculable due to negative equity, posing a risk to financial health. Despite steady total assets, the heavy leverage and negative equity position cast doubt on long-term sustainability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Operating cash flow has significantly decreased from $215 million in 2023 to $68.8 million in TTM 2024, showing a concerning drop in operational efficiency. Free cash flow turned negative in TTM 2024 at -$46.7 million, compared to positive $140.1 million in 2023, indicating a decline in cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable due to negative net income, further highlighting cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	Sep 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.57B	1.69B	1.47B	1.14B	1.02B
Gross Profit	462.98M	487.85M	433.31M	411.60M	354.47M
EBITDA	138.29M	336.80M	304.07M	337.16M	241.90M
Net Income	-36.70M	130.83M	115.78M	165.75M	89.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.74B	3.00B	2.92B	1.75B	1.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	24.75M	157.65M	108.89M	55.35M	199.66M
Total Debt	3.18B	3.16B	3.17B	2.23B	2.33B
Total Liabilities	3.59B	3.72B	3.66B	2.57B	2.70B
Stockholders Equity	-851.80M	-718.33M	-736.19M	-817.88M	-793.36M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-46.66M	140.05M	116.41M	160.11M	124.00M
Operating Cash Flow	68.82M	215.01M	162.88M	201.12M	143.53M
Investing Cash Flow	-69.37M	42.22M	-578.59M	-20.93M	29.12M
Financing Cash Flow	-131.19M	-207.36M	478.18M	-343.55M	-87.29M

Jack In The Box Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price19.23

Price Trends

50DMA

20.15

Negative

100DMA

23.43

Negative

200DMA

32.82

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.08

Positive

RSI

40.96

Neutral

STOCH

5.12

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JACK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.76, below the 50-day MA of 20.15, and below the 200-day MA of 32.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JACK.

Jack In The Box Risk Analysis

Jack In The Box disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jack In The Box reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Jack In The Box Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (67)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	77 Outperform	$3.09B	19.19	46.60%	1.73%	4.77%	38.24%
PBPB	75 Outperform	$346.38M	8.17	117.47%	―	-3.96%	1036.87%
LOCO	70 Outperform	$314.05M	12.41	9.46%	―	1.85%	-0.99%
Sector *	67 Neutral	¥266.96B	13.51	6.51%	2.53%	5.16%	-13.66%
WEN	65 Neutral	$1.91B	10.63	90.40%	8.94%	2.18%	-5.15%
NATH	64 Neutral	$387.89M	16.17	-102.54%	2.11%	6.91%	22.33%
JACK	50 Neutral	$363.05M	―	4.15%	9.15%	-6.02%	-289.54%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JACK

Jack In The Box

19.23

-31.93

-62.41%

NATH

Nathan's Famous

94.85

27.10

40.00%

CAKE

Cheesecake Factory

62.38

28.94

86.54%

WEN

Wendy's

9.96

-5.81

-36.84%

PBPB

Potbelly

11.48

4.88

73.94%

LOCO

El Pollo LoCo

10.45

-1.25

-10.68%

Jack In The Box Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Jack In The Box Adopts Stockholder Rights Plan

Neutral

Jul 2, 2025

On July 2, 2025, Jack in the Box Inc. announced the adoption of a limited-duration stockholder rights plan in response to Biglari Capital Corp.’s accumulation of 9.9% of its shares. The plan aims to protect stockholder interests, ensuring fair treatment in potential takeovers and preventing control without appropriate premiums. The Board expressed confidence in the company’s ‘JACK on Track’ plan to enhance financial performance and transition to an asset-light model, emphasizing the plan’s role in safeguarding long-term stockholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JACK) stock is a Hold with a $41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jack In The Box stock, see the JACK Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes

Jack In The Box Appoints New Chief Financial Officer

Positive

May 28, 2025

On May 23, 2025, Jack in the Box Inc. announced the appointment of Dawn Hooper as the Chief Financial Officer, effective May 26, 2025. Hooper, who has been with the company since 2000, has held various leadership roles and served as interim principal financial officer multiple times. Her extensive experience and deep institutional knowledge are expected to support the company’s long-term financial performance and growth strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (JACK) stock is a Hold with a $41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jack In The Box stock, see the JACK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 30, 2025