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Jack In The Box
(NASDAQ:JACK)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(19.41% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/24/26
The score is held down primarily by financial risk—heavy leverage with negative equity and recently compressed free cash flow—alongside a weak technical trend with the stock trading below major moving averages. These negatives are partially offset by very low reported P/E valuation and a cautiously constructive earnings-call outlook that points to improving sales trends and active deleveraging/operational initiatives, though execution and refinancing risk remain key.
Positive Factors
Franchise-based revenue
A meaningful franchise stream creates recurring, lower-capex revenue and cash flow that is less sensitive to company-operated traffic swings. Over 2–6 months this supports stability of cash receipts, helps cover corporate costs, and reduces incremental investment needs versus wholly company-operated models.
Negative Factors
High leverage & negative equity
Persistent negative equity and very large debt burdens materially limit financial flexibility. With a thin capital cushion, the company is more exposed to higher interest costs and refinancing execution risk, constraining strategic options and amplifying downside from any operating setback.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Franchise-based revenue
A meaningful franchise stream creates recurring, lower-capex revenue and cash flow that is less sensitive to company-operated traffic swings. Over 2–6 months this supports stability of cash receipts, helps cover corporate costs, and reduces incremental investment needs versus wholly company-operated models.
Read all positive factors
Jack In The Box Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue streams by business segment, showing which parts of the company are growing and contributing most to overall sales.
Breaks down revenue streams by business segment, showing which parts of the company are growing and contributing most to overall sales.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyJack In The Box (JACK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$275.04M
Dividend Yield9.34%
Average Volume (3M)1.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.5
Beta (1Y)1.56
Revenue Growth-17.16%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,046
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.34
Shares Outstanding19,073,616
10 Day Avg. Volume1,809,576
30 Day Avg. Volume1,092,726
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.39
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio4.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap10.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.63Price Target Upside12.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)3.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.12B
Jack In The Box Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Jack in the Box Inc. is engaged in the operation and franchising of its namesake quick-service dining establishments. By November 23, 2021, the company's network encompassed approximately 2,200 Jack in the Box fast-food outlets situated across 21 ...
How the Company Makes Money
Jack in the Box makes money primarily through a mix of company-operated restaurant sales and franchising-related income. For company-operated locations, revenue is generated from direct food and beverage sales to customers (including in-restaurant...
Jack In The Box Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mixed but cautious picture: near-term operating and financial results weakened with notable declines in comps, margins, EBITDA, and EPS, and elevated leverage and cost pressures (notably beef and labor). Management outlined concrete remediation steps — accelerated JACK on Track execution, promotional rebalancing, mini refreshes with measurable ROI, digital offer optimization, real estate monetization, and clarified guidance — and reported early signs of stabilization (quarter-to-date comps approaching flat, improved checks, positive guest/ops indicators). Given the material negative financial trends in Q2 and elevated leverage balanced against a clear turnaround plan and some early operational momentum, the overall tone is constructive but risk-laden.Positive Updates
Operational Momentum and Strategy Clarity
Management highlighted progress on the 'JACK on Track' plan with a streamlined marketing calendar, sharper value vs. premium positioning, and operational focus (ops excellence initiatives) intended to drive transactions and guest experience improvements.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Sales Decline in Q2
Second quarter same-store sales decreased 3.8% systemwide (franchise -3.9%, company-owned -2.8%) driven primarily by a decline in transactions, only partially offset by menu price increases.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational Momentum and Strategy Clarity
Management highlighted progress on the 'JACK on Track' plan with a streamlined marketing calendar, sharper value vs. premium positioning, and operational focus (ops excellence initiatives) intended to drive transactions and guest experience improvements.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management updated FY26 guidance and operational outlook: they now expect full‑year same‑store sales to decline low single digits (Q2 SSS -3.8%: franchise -3.9%, company -2.8%; quarter‑to‑date approaching flat with Q3 steady improvement and Q4 expected to be the strongest), and they expect restaurant‑level margin of ~17% (Q2 was 16.4% vs 19.6% LY) assuming mid‑single‑digit commodity inflation and low‑single‑digit wage inflation; food & packaging was 28.9% in Q2 (+110 bps) with commodity inflation ~5% in the quarter and beef up double‑digits through Q3 before moderating to low‑single‑digits in Q4, labor was 35.6% (+180 bps) and occupancy/other +40 bps. Franchise‑level margin is guided to $265–275M (Q2 franchise margin $60.5M or 37.9% of franchise revenues vs $68.3M/40% LY); SG&A is expected to be ~2.3% of systemwide sales with total SG&A (incl. advertising) $115–125M ex‑COLI; adjusted EBITDA guidance is $225–235M (Q2 adj. EBITDA $51.3M vs $61.5M LY). Q2 continuing ops income was $12.5M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.65 (operating EPS $0.76), adjusted tax rate used was 31.1% (effective Q2 rate 27.7%). On the balance sheet they reported total debt $1.6B and net debt/adjusted EBITDA 6.9x (pro forma ~6.2x after withdrawing ~$71M COLI funds and prepaying ~$99M of the Aug‑2026 tranche); YTD real‑estate proceeds $14.7M with an expected additional $35–45M by year‑end, capex YTD $34.5M, and management expects restaurant closures to accelerate in H2 (previously guided ~50–100 closures) with an average sales transfer benefit of ~30%.Jack In The Box Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
39
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.26B | 1.47B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.47B | 1.14B |
| Gross Profit | 351.68M | 419.92M | 462.98M | 508.14M | 433.31M | 411.60M |
| EBITDA | 195.64M | 36.19M | 138.29M | 336.80M | 304.07M | 337.16M |
| Net Income | 35.61M | -80.72M | -36.70M | 130.83M | 115.78M | 165.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.01B | 2.59B | 2.74B | 3.00B | 2.92B | 1.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 69.36M | 51.53M | 24.75M | 157.65M | 108.89M | 55.35M |
| Total Debt | 2.61B | 3.12B | 3.18B | 3.16B | 3.17B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.93B | 3.53B | 3.59B | 3.72B | 3.66B | 2.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | -922.05M | -938.27M | -851.80M | -718.33M | -736.19M | -817.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 21.89M | 74.14M | -46.66M | 140.05M | 116.41M | 160.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 96.87M | 162.36M | 68.82M | 215.01M | 162.88M | 201.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 62.42M | -74.69M | -69.37M | 42.22M | -578.59M | -20.93M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -135.52M | -60.03M | -131.19M | -207.36M | 478.18M | -343.55M |
Jack In The Box Technical Analysis
Positive
12.98
Price Trends
12.91
Positive
13.18
Positive
16.15
Negative
Market Momentum
0.91
Negative
55.65
Neutral
47.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JACK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.00, above the 50-day MA of 12.91, and below the 200-day MA of 16.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JACK.
Jack In The Box Risk Analysis
Jack In The Box disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jack In The Box reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Jack In The Box Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $498.86M | 16.60 | 10.14% | ― | 4.42% | 16.38% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $1.42B | 9.73 | 130.59% | 8.15% | -1.84% | -17.48% | |
50 Neutral | $1.12B | 40.01 | -6.47% | 4.72% | -2.41% | -64.77% | |
48 Neutral | $275.04M | 3.50 | -3.80% | 9.34% | -17.16% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $145.19M | -2.35 | -29.57% | ― | 5.20% | -6.01% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
JACK
Jack In The Box
15.17
-7.42
-32.85%
PZZA
Papa John's International
33.61
-12.17
-26.59%
WEN
Wendy's
7.59
-2.97
-28.13%
LOCO
El Pollo LoCo
16.43
5.28
47.35%
VENU
Venu Holding Corporation
2.66
-9.53
-78.18%
Jack In The Box Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Jack in the Box announces supply chain leadership change
Neutral
Jul 7, 2026
Jack in the Box Inc. announced that effective July 2, 2026, Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer Carl Mount stepped down from his Executive Leadership Team position and transitioned into an advisory role through October 1, 2026. Th...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Jack in the Box Announces Major Debt Refinancing Plan
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. announced that a limited-purpose subsidiary completed the sale of $500 million in Series 2026-1 7.624% Fixed Rate Senior Secured Notes, with proceeds designated to fully repay its Series 2019-1 Class A-2-II n...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Jack in the Box Announces Major Debt Refinancing Transaction
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. announced it had entered into a purchase agreement for a $500 million securitized financing facility via its special purpose Master Issuer, which will issue 7.624% Fixed Rate Senior Secured Notes due with ant...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Jack in the Box Launches Major Debt Reduction Plan
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On June 8, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. announced a series of actions under its “JACK on Track” plan aimed at reducing debt and optimizing its capital structure. The company said it intended to repay $110 million of its Series 2019-1 4.4...
Executive/Board Changes
Jack in the Box Announces CEO and Board Departure
Negative
May 29, 2026
Jack in the Box Inc. reported that former Chief Executive Officer Lance Tucker, who ceased serving as CEO effective May 8, 2026, has also resigned from the company’s Board of Directors. The board resignation, effective May 27, 2026, occurred...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Jack in the Box Names Mark King Interim CEO
Negative
May 13, 2026
Jack in the Box reported weaker second-quarter 2026 results for the period ended April 12, 2026, with systemwide same-store sales down 3.8%, total revenue falling 4.3% to $254.3 million and net earnings from continuing operations sliding to $12.5 ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Jack in the Box Adds Veteran Executive to Board
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. appointed veteran restaurant and consumer brands executive Eduardo Luz to its Board of Directors as an independent director, with Luz also joining the Compensation and Nominating Governance Committees. Luz,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.