Jack In The Box (JACK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $352.16M
• Dividend Yield: 9.44%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.87
• Revenue Growth: -6.66%
• EPS Growth: -71.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,606
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 81
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 1.02
• Shares Outstanding: 18,882,517
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,298,835
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,062,048
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 9.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.07
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 55.83
• 1Y Price Target: $24.08
• Price Target Upside: 29.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.00 ▲(1.88% Upside)

Jack In The Box's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenue and high leverage. However, strong cash flow and strategic initiatives in digital sales and market expansion provide some optimism for recovery. The bearish technical indicators and negative P/E ratio are offset by a high dividend yield, making the stock potentially attractive to income-focused investors.

Positive Factors

Digital Strategy

The digital mix reached 18.5% in F3Q and is on track towards the 20% target, which can support value efforts and potentially boost sales.

Strategic Initiatives

Management is focusing on better value initiatives to improve performance, such as introducing the Bonus Jack combo and menu innovation like Spicy Chicken Strips.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Financial results saw meaningful shortfall compared to consensus, with adjusted EBITDA and EPS guided downward due to increased expenses.

Market Challenges

Aggressive immigration policies are likely to create a significant sales headwind for an unpredictable period.

Sales Performance

Jack's same-store sales were significantly below expectations, contributing to downside risks for the fiscal year.

Jack In The Box Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Jack In The Box Inc. is a fast-food restaurant chain based in the United States, known for its diverse menu that includes burgers, tacos, breakfast items, and specialty sandwiches. Founded in 1951, the company operates both company-owned and franchised locations, primarily in the western and southern regions of the country. Jack In The Box focuses on providing a convenient dining experience with a drive-thru service and late-night hours, catering to a broad customer base seeking quick and affordable meal options.

How the Company Makes Money

Jack In The Box generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its restaurants. The company operates under a dual revenue model that includes company-owned restaurants and franchised locations. Revenue from company-owned stores comes directly from customer sales, while franchise revenue is earned through franchise fees, royalties based on sales, and other services provided to franchisees. Additionally, Jack In The Box benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers for cost-effective procurement of ingredients and promotional collaborations that drive traffic to its locations. Marketing initiatives, seasonal menu items, and loyalty programs also contribute to increased customer engagement and sales, enhancing the company’s overall profitability.

Jack In The Box Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Jack In The Box is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenue, negative net profit margin, and a heavily leveraged balance sheet with negative equity. Cash flow issues further exacerbate the financial instability, indicating a need for strategic measures to improve financial health.

Income Statement

The company has shown a declining revenue trend from $1.692 billion in 2023 to $1.571 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2024, indicating challenges in maintaining growth. Net profit margin has turned negative at -2.34% in TTM 2024, compared to 7.73% in 2023, showing a significant drop in profitability. The gross profit margin also decreased from 76.79% in 2023 to 27.70% in TTM 2024. While the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain relatively stable, the overall income statement reflects concerns regarding decreasing revenue and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The total liabilities exceed total assets, resulting in a negative equity position. The company's return on equity is not calculable due to negative equity, posing a risk to financial health. Despite steady total assets, the heavy leverage and negative equity position cast doubt on long-term sustainability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has significantly decreased from $215 million in 2023 to $68.8 million in TTM 2024, showing a concerning drop in operational efficiency. Free cash flow turned negative in TTM 2024 at -$46.7 million, compared to positive $140.1 million in 2023, indicating a decline in cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable due to negative net income, further highlighting cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.49B	1.57B	1.69B	1.47B	1.14B	1.02B
Gross Profit	427.90M	462.98M	487.85M	433.31M	411.60M	354.47M
EBITDA	61.84M	138.29M	336.80M	304.07M	337.16M	241.90M
Net Income	-64.57M	-36.70M	130.83M	115.78M	165.75M	89.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.60B	2.74B	3.00B	2.92B	1.75B	1.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	38.01M	24.75M	157.65M	108.89M	55.35M	199.66M
Total Debt	3.13B	3.18B	3.16B	3.17B	2.23B	2.33B
Total Liabilities	3.55B	3.59B	3.72B	3.66B	2.57B	2.70B
Stockholders Equity	-951.62M	-851.80M	-718.33M	-736.19M	-817.88M	-793.36M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	49.35M	-46.66M	140.05M	116.41M	160.11M	124.00M
Operating Cash Flow	158.18M	68.82M	215.01M	162.88M	201.12M	143.53M
Investing Cash Flow	-63.27M	-69.37M	42.22M	-578.59M	-20.93M	29.12M
Financing Cash Flow	-77.55M	-131.19M	-207.36M	478.18M	-343.55M	-87.29M

Jack In The Box Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.65
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JACK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.17, below the 50-day MA of 19.77, and below the 200-day MA of 30.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JACK.

Jack In The Box Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PBPB	72 Outperform	$385.52M	35.79	19.65%	―	-1.72%	-70.31%
LOCO	69 Neutral	$320.35M	12.68	9.46%	―	1.85%	-0.99%
NATH	66 Neutral	$445.43M	18.88	-102.54%	1.84%	6.38%	9.98%
CAKE	65 Neutral	$3.12B	19.30	41.01%	1.72%	4.77%	38.24%
WEN	63 Neutral	$2.03B	11.11	99.35%	8.36%	1.31%	-1.46%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.70B	12.60	-3.90%	3.04%	1.52%	-15.30%
JACK	51 Neutral	$352.16M	―	4.15%	9.44%	-6.66%	-71.87%

Jack In The Box Corporate Events

Jack In The Box Adopts Stockholder Rights Plan

On July 2, 2025, Jack in the Box Inc. announced the adoption of a limited-duration stockholder rights plan in response to Biglari Capital Corp.’s accumulation of 9.9% of its shares. The plan aims to protect stockholder interests, ensuring fair treatment in potential takeovers and preventing control without appropriate premiums. The Board expressed confidence in the company’s ‘JACK on Track’ plan to enhance financial performance and transition to an asset-light model, emphasizing the plan’s role in safeguarding long-term stockholder value.

Jack In The Box Appoints New Chief Financial Officer

On May 23, 2025, Jack in the Box Inc. announced the appointment of Dawn Hooper as the Chief Financial Officer, effective May 26, 2025. Hooper, who has been with the company since 2000, has held various leadership roles and served as interim principal financial officer multiple times. Her extensive experience and deep institutional knowledge are expected to support the company’s long-term financial performance and growth strategies.