Jack In The Box Inc (JACK)
NASDAQ:JACK
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Jack In The Box
(NASDAQ:JACK)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-10.46% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/29/26
The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance (losses, margin pressure) and a structurally weak balance sheet (deeply negative equity and high leverage), reinforced by very bearish technicals (price far below key moving averages, negative MACD). Offsetting factors include very low headline valuation (low P/E and ~4.1% yield) and a mixed earnings-call outlook where deleveraging actions are progressing but same-store sales and margins remain under significant pressure with refinancing risk still present.
Positive Factors
Asset-light franchise model with recurring royalties
A franchise-heavy system creates recurring, asset-light cash flow from royalties and fees, insulating corporate margins versus company-operated sales. Strong average unit volumes (~$2.0M noted for many franchisees) support durable unit economics and scalable earnings when system sales stabilize.
Negative Factors
Structurally weak balance sheet and negative equity
Deeply negative equity and sizable outstanding debt materially constrain financial flexibility, increase refinancing and covenant risk, and limit capacity for investment or margin recovery programs. Negative equity also raises stakeholder and rating sensitivity in adverse market conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset-light franchise model with recurring royalties
A franchise-heavy system creates recurring, asset-light cash flow from royalties and fees, insulating corporate margins versus company-operated sales. Strong average unit volumes (~$2.0M noted for many franchisees) support durable unit economics and scalable earnings when system sales stabilize.
Read all positive factors
Jack In The Box (JACK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$201.97M
Dividend Yield9.34%
Average Volume (3M)944.90K
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.4
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth-6.75%
EPS Growth-118.94%
CountryUS
Employees1,606
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.00
Shares Outstanding19,036,016
10 Day Avg. Volume1,098,435
30 Day Avg. Volume944,904
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.39
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio4.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap13.70
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda208.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.21Price Target Upside90.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)3.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.13B
Jack In The Box Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Jack in the Box Inc. operates and franchises Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants. As of November 23, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 2,200 Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants in 21 states and Guam. The company was founde...
How the Company Makes Money
Jack in the Box makes money primarily through a mix of (1) franchise-based revenue and (2) sales from company-operated restaurants, along with related fees and other revenues.
1) Franchise revenue (significant contributor):
- Royalties: Franchise...
Jack In The Box Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue streams by business segment, showing which parts of the company are growing and contributing most to overall sales.
Breaks down revenue streams by business segment, showing which parts of the company are growing and contributing most to overall sales.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyJack In The Box Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mix of constructive strategic progress—most notably the completed Del Taco sale, an immediate debt prepayment, planned real estate monetization, marketing-driven early sales improvement, technology upgrades, and operational initiatives producing modest lifts—against material near-term operating and financial headwinds. Key operating metrics were weak in the quarter: same-store sales fell 6.7%, restaurant-level margins compressed sharply (to 16.1% from 23.2%), consolidated adjusted EBITDA and EPS declined meaningfully, and commodity and labor inflation pressured margins (food +380 bps; labor +200 bps). Leverage remains elevated (net debt/adj. EBITDA 6.5x) and refinancing needs are upcoming. Management reiterated prior guidance and emphasized that the improvements are early-stage and will take time to fully materialize.Positive Updates
Completion of Del Taco Sale and Immediate Debt Reduction Actions
Closed sale of Del Taco on 12/22/2025 and used proceeds to make a $105 million partial prepayment on the August 2026 tranche. Total debt outstanding at quarter end was $1.6 billion and management reiterated plan to pay down an additional $200 million over the Jack on Track plan.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Sales Decline
Systemwide same-store sales decreased 6.7% in Q1: franchise same-store sales down 7.0% and company-owned same-store sales down 4.7%, driven by lower transactions and adverse sales mix (partially offset by menu price increases).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Completion of Del Taco Sale and Immediate Debt Reduction Actions
Closed sale of Del Taco on 12/22/2025 and used proceeds to make a $105 million partial prepayment on the August 2026 tranche. Total debt outstanding at quarter end was $1.6 billion and management reiterated plan to pay down an additional $200 million over the Jack on Track plan.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated the November 2025 guidance while emphasizing balance‑sheet repair and steady top‑line improvement: Q1 consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $68.2M (vs. $88.8M prior year), GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations $0.75 (operating EPS $1.00), same‑store sales down 6.7% (franchise -7.0%, company -4.7%), restaurant‑level margin 16.1% (vs. 23.2%), food & packaging 29.7% (+380 bps) with commodity inflation +7.1% in Q1 (beef up double‑digits in Q1 but expected to moderate; full‑year commodity inflation guidance remains mid‑single digits), labor 35.3% (+200 bps), SG&A $37.0M (10.6% of revenues), Q1 capex $23.2M (≈$8M timing-related), total debt $1.6B with net debt/adjusted EBITDA of 6.5x (ex‑Del Taco), a $105M partial prepayment made in Q1 and a plan to pay down an additional $200M under Jack on Track, Q1 real‑estate proceeds $10.9M (gains ~$6.3M) with $50–60M expected by FY2026, TSA income ~$0.9M in Q1 (≤$2M expected for FY2026) with TSAs largely complete by end of Q2, and management noted potential refinancing of upcoming tranches.Jack In The Box Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
27
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.35B | 1.47B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.47B | 1.14B |
| Gross Profit | 370.97M | 419.92M | 462.98M | 508.14M | 433.31M | 411.60M |
| EBITDA | 13.30M | 36.19M | 138.29M | 336.80M | 304.07M | 337.16M |
| Net Income | -69.44M | -80.72M | -36.70M | 130.83M | 115.78M | 165.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.02B | 2.59B | 2.74B | 3.00B | 2.92B | 1.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 71.97M | 51.53M | 24.75M | 157.65M | 108.89M | 55.35M |
| Total Debt | 2.63B | 3.12B | 3.18B | 3.16B | 3.17B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.96B | 3.53B | 3.59B | 3.72B | 3.66B | 2.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | -936.04M | -938.27M | -851.80M | -718.33M | -736.19M | -817.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -9.82M | 74.14M | -46.66M | 140.05M | 116.41M | 160.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 75.35M | 162.36M | 68.82M | 215.01M | 162.88M | 201.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 63.53M | -74.69M | -69.37M | 42.22M | -578.59M | -20.93M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -144.14M | -60.03M | -131.19M | -207.36M | 478.18M | -343.55M |
Jack In The Box Technical Analysis
Negative
10.61
Price Trends
16.14
Negative
17.67
Negative
18.38
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.75
Negative
32.33
Neutral
46.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JACK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.42, below the 50-day MA of 16.14, and below the 200-day MA of 18.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JACK.
Jack In The Box Risk Analysis
Jack In The Box disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jack In The Box reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Jack In The Box Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $428.37M | 11.56 | 9.51% | ― | 2.09% | 12.10% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $1.35B | 9.79 | 140.58% | 8.15% | -0.21% | 0.16% | |
48 Neutral | $1.16B | 42.31 | -6.99% | 4.72% | -0.64% | -60.71% | |
47 Neutral | $201.97M | 2.44 | 7.30% | 9.34% | -6.75% | -118.94% | |
44 Neutral | $206.39M | -0.07 | -40.97% | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
JACK
Jack In The Box
10.61
-12.32
-53.73%
PZZA
Papa John's International
35.23
4.53
14.75%
WEN
Wendy's
7.09
-4.60
-39.33%
LOCO
El Pollo LoCo
14.30
4.13
40.61%
VENU
Venu Holding Corporation
3.42
-5.09
-59.81%
Jack In The Box Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Jack in the Box Shareholders Ratify Rights Plan Extension
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Jack in the Box stockholders ratified the Board’s Stockholder Protection Rights Agreement, originally adopted in July 2025 and amended in September 2025, extending its expiration to July 1, 2028, unless earlier terminat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.