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Jack In The Box
(NASDAQ:JACK)
Select Model
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▲(20.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated balance-sheet risk (negative equity, high debt) and weakened cash generation alongside contracting revenue. Offsetting positives include a technically improving price trend, a low P/E multiple, and earnings-call evidence of turnaround actions (debt reduction, EBITDA guidance, and early Q4 sales stabilization), though execution and franchisee/margin headwinds remain significant.
Positive Factors
Franchise-led recurring revenue
The franchise model can provide recurring, asset-light royalty income while shifting much of the restaurant investment and operating burden to franchisees. This supports scalability and potentially more stable cash generation when franchisee economics remain healthy.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and negative equity
Negative equity and debt exceeding the asset base leave the company highly sensitive to operating setbacks. High leverage increases interest and covenant risk, limits strategic flexibility and makes sustained sales and margin improvement essential to preserve financial stability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Franchise-led recurring revenue
The franchise model can provide recurring, asset-light royalty income while shifting much of the restaurant investment and operating burden to franchisees. This supports scalability and potentially more stable cash generation when franchisee economics remain healthy.
Read all positive factors
Jack In The Box Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Profit by Segment
Analyzes profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Analyzes profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyJack In The Box (JACK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$328.93M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.5
Beta (1Y)1.67
Revenue Growth-20.21%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,046
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.74
Shares Outstanding19,179,330
10 Day Avg. Volume643,205
30 Day Avg. Volume1,075,399
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.39
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio4.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.33Price Target Upside26.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)3.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.12B
Jack In The Box Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Jack in the Box Inc. is engaged in the operation and franchising of its namesake quick-service dining establishments. By November 23, 2021, the company's network encompassed approximately 2,200 Jack in the Box fast-food outlets situated across 21 ...
How the Company Makes Money
Jack in the Box makes money primarily through a mix of company-operated restaurant sales and franchising-related income. For company-operated locations, revenue is generated from direct food and beverage sales to customers (including in-restaurant...
Jack In The Box Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mix of proactive operational and financial actions (refinancing and debt reduction, adjusted EBITDA growth, product tests, early Q4 comp improvement and a refresh program) alongside persistent challenges (several quarters of same-store sales declines, margin pressures from commodity inflation and digital fees, franchisee profitability stress, and elevated leverage). Management emphasized a clear 5-point turnaround plan and early signs of stabilization, but the near-term financials and franchisee headwinds remain material.Positive Updates
Debt Reduction and Refinancing Completed
Since JACK on Track was announced, debt decreased by $244 million; completed refinancing on June 23, prepaid $110 million of the August 2026 tranche, total debt at quarter end $1.5 billion; net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved to 6.3x from 6.9x the prior quarter.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Sales Decline in Q3
Third-quarter same-store sales decreased 1.1% overall (franchise same-store sales -1.2%; company-owned -0.9%), reflecting a decline in transactions partially offset by menu price increases and continuing multiple quarters of comps weakness.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Debt Reduction and Refinancing Completed
Since JACK on Track was announced, debt decreased by $244 million; completed refinancing on June 23, prepaid $110 million of the August 2026 tranche, total debt at quarter end $1.5 billion; net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved to 6.3x from 6.9x the prior quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management updated FY2026 guidance and JACK on Track progress: they now expect ~2,100 restaurants, restaurant-level margin of ~16.5% (assuming mid‑single‑digit commodity inflation and low‑single‑digit wage inflation), franchise‑level margin of about $265M, SG&A of $112M–$115M (ex‑COLI), and adjusted EBITDA of $225M–$230M; capital expenditures were $44.1M YTD through Q3 and interest expense for the year is expected to be roughly $81M. They reported total debt of $1.5B, net debt/adjusted EBITDA leverage of 6.3x (down from 6.9x), $244M of debt reduction since JACK on Track launched, $26.7M of real‑estate sale proceeds YTD (≈$1M in Q4 to date), and 40 restaurant closures YTD with an additional 10–20 expected in Q4 (closure cadence likely to continue into 2027); management noted each franchise closure impacts franchise‑level margin by about $80k.Jack In The Box Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
36
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.19B | 1.47B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.47B | 1.14B |
| Gross Profit | 334.24M | 419.92M | 462.98M | 508.14M | 433.31M | 411.60M |
| EBITDA | 204.88M | 36.19M | 138.29M | 336.80M | 304.07M | 337.16M |
| Net Income | 33.70M | -80.72M | -36.70M | 130.83M | 115.78M | 165.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.90B | 2.59B | 2.74B | 3.00B | 2.92B | 1.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 46.32M | 51.53M | 24.75M | 157.65M | 108.89M | 55.35M |
| Total Debt | 2.48B | 3.12B | 3.18B | 3.16B | 3.17B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.80B | 3.53B | 3.59B | 3.72B | 3.66B | 2.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | -901.29M | -938.27M | -851.80M | -718.33M | -736.19M | -817.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.21M | 74.14M | -46.66M | 140.05M | 116.41M | 160.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 74.24M | 162.36M | 68.82M | 215.01M | 162.88M | 201.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 174.98M | -74.69M | -69.37M | 42.22M | -578.59M | -20.93M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -245.55M | -60.03M | -131.19M | -207.36M | 478.18M | -343.55M |
Jack In The Box Technical Analysis
Positive
14.55
Price Trends
15.41
Positive
13.69
Positive
15.85
Positive
Market Momentum
0.54
Positive
50.11
Neutral
7.32
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JACK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.05, below the 50-day MA of 15.41, and below the 200-day MA of 15.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JACK.
Jack In The Box Risk Analysis
Jack In The Box disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jack In The Box reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Jack In The Box Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $466.54M | 13.03 | 11.68% | ― | 4.40% | 39.48% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | $328.93M | 9.54 | -3.65% | ― | -20.21% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $105.12M | -1.70 | -32.23% | ― | 5.09% | 8.91% | |
46 Neutral | $766.09M | 28.79 | -6.17% | 6.06% | -5.65% | -64.96% | |
43 Neutral | $1.70B | 13.35 | 109.00% | 8.01% | -0.98% | -31.26% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
JACK
Jack In The Box
16.60
-1.50
-8.29%
PZZA
Papa John's International
23.32
-19.35
-45.35%
WEN
Wendy's
8.81
-0.87
-9.00%
LOCO
El Pollo LoCo
15.37
5.09
49.51%
VENU
Venu Holding Corporation
1.92
-16.18
-89.39%
Jack In The Box Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Jack in the Box Names New President, CEO Successor
Positive
Aug 20, 2026
On August 18, 2026, Jack in the Box’s board appointed Taylor Montgomery as President, effective September 14, 2026, in a newly created role overseeing brand strategy, sustainable sales growth and franchisee profitability. The move forms a ce...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Jack in the Box announces supply chain leadership change
Neutral
Jul 7, 2026
Jack in the Box Inc. announced that effective July 2, 2026, Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer Carl Mount stepped down from his Executive Leadership Team position and transitioned into an advisory role through October 1, 2026. Th...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Jack in the Box Announces Major Debt Refinancing Plan
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. announced that a limited-purpose subsidiary completed the sale of $500 million in Series 2026-1 7.624% Fixed Rate Senior Secured Notes, with proceeds designated to fully repay its Series 2019-1 Class A-2-II n...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Jack in the Box Announces Major Debt Refinancing Transaction
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. announced it had entered into a purchase agreement for a $500 million securitized financing facility via its special purpose Master Issuer, which will issue 7.624% Fixed Rate Senior Secured Notes due with ant...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Jack in the Box Launches Major Debt Reduction Plan
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On June 8, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. announced a series of actions under its “JACK on Track” plan aimed at reducing debt and optimizing its capital structure. The company said it intended to repay $110 million of its Series 2019-1 4.4...
Executive/Board Changes
Jack in the Box Announces CEO and Board Departure
Negative
May 29, 2026
Jack in the Box Inc. reported that former Chief Executive Officer Lance Tucker, who ceased serving as CEO effective May 8, 2026, has also resigned from the company’s Board of Directors. The board resignation, effective May 27, 2026, occurred...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.