Jack In The Box (JACK)
NASDAQ:JACK
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Jack In The Box
(NASDAQ:JACK)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▼(-19.11% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (high leverage with negative equity, shrinking revenue, and recently compressed free cash flow) and a bearish technical setup below major moving averages. A low P/E provides valuation support, and the latest earnings call offered a credible stabilization plan with early improvement signals, but near-term operating pressure and leverage/refinancing risk remain material.
Positive Factors
Asset-light franchise model
A large franchised footprint generates recurring royalty and fee income that is higher margin and less capital intensive than company‑owned stores. Over months this supports steadier cash flow and lower capex needs, helping resilience through consumer cycles and freeing cash to address liabilities.
Negative Factors
High leverage and negative equity
Material leverage and a stockholders’ deficit weaken capital structure and amplify sensitivity to revenue or margin setbacks. Negative equity limits covenant and refinancing flexibility, increasing the probability that adverse operating trends force costly refinancing or asset sales over a 2–6 month horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset-light franchise model
A large franchised footprint generates recurring royalty and fee income that is higher margin and less capital intensive than company‑owned stores. Over months this supports steadier cash flow and lower capex needs, helping resilience through consumer cycles and freeing cash to address liabilities.
Read all positive factors
Jack In The Box Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue streams by business segment, showing which parts of the company are growing and contributing most to overall sales.
Breaks down revenue streams by business segment, showing which parts of the company are growing and contributing most to overall sales.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyJack In The Box (JACK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$213.05M
Dividend Yield9.34%
Average Volume (3M)819.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.3
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth-17.16%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,606
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.34
Shares Outstanding19,073,616
10 Day Avg. Volume1,033,209
30 Day Avg. Volume819,555
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.39
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio4.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap12.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.47Price Target Upside19.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)3.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.13B
Jack In The Box Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Jack in the Box Inc. operates and franchises Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants. As of November 23, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 2,200 Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants in 21 states and Guam. The company was founde...
How the Company Makes Money
Jack in the Box makes money primarily through a mix of (1) franchise-based revenue and (2) sales from company-operated restaurants, along with related fees and other revenues.
1) Franchise revenue (significant contributor):
- Royalties: Franchise...
Jack In The Box Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mixed but cautious picture: near-term operating and financial results weakened with notable declines in comps, margins, EBITDA, and EPS, and elevated leverage and cost pressures (notably beef and labor). Management outlined concrete remediation steps — accelerated JACK on Track execution, promotional rebalancing, mini refreshes with measurable ROI, digital offer optimization, real estate monetization, and clarified guidance — and reported early signs of stabilization (quarter-to-date comps approaching flat, improved checks, positive guest/ops indicators). Given the material negative financial trends in Q2 and elevated leverage balanced against a clear turnaround plan and some early operational momentum, the overall tone is constructive but risk-laden.Positive Updates
Operational Momentum and Strategy Clarity
Management highlighted progress on the 'JACK on Track' plan with a streamlined marketing calendar, sharper value vs. premium positioning, and operational focus (ops excellence initiatives) intended to drive transactions and guest experience improvements.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Sales Decline in Q2
Second quarter same-store sales decreased 3.8% systemwide (franchise -3.9%, company-owned -2.8%) driven primarily by a decline in transactions, only partially offset by menu price increases.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational Momentum and Strategy Clarity
Management highlighted progress on the 'JACK on Track' plan with a streamlined marketing calendar, sharper value vs. premium positioning, and operational focus (ops excellence initiatives) intended to drive transactions and guest experience improvements.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management updated FY26 guidance and operational outlook: they now expect full‑year same‑store sales to decline low single digits (Q2 SSS -3.8%: franchise -3.9%, company -2.8%; quarter‑to‑date approaching flat with Q3 steady improvement and Q4 expected to be the strongest), and they expect restaurant‑level margin of ~17% (Q2 was 16.4% vs 19.6% LY) assuming mid‑single‑digit commodity inflation and low‑single‑digit wage inflation; food & packaging was 28.9% in Q2 (+110 bps) with commodity inflation ~5% in the quarter and beef up double‑digits through Q3 before moderating to low‑single‑digits in Q4, labor was 35.6% (+180 bps) and occupancy/other +40 bps. Franchise‑level margin is guided to $265–275M (Q2 franchise margin $60.5M or 37.9% of franchise revenues vs $68.3M/40% LY); SG&A is expected to be ~2.3% of systemwide sales with total SG&A (incl. advertising) $115–125M ex‑COLI; adjusted EBITDA guidance is $225–235M (Q2 adj. EBITDA $51.3M vs $61.5M LY). Q2 continuing ops income was $12.5M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.65 (operating EPS $0.76), adjusted tax rate used was 31.1% (effective Q2 rate 27.7%). On the balance sheet they reported total debt $1.6B and net debt/adjusted EBITDA 6.9x (pro forma ~6.2x after withdrawing ~$71M COLI funds and prepaying ~$99M of the Aug‑2026 tranche); YTD real‑estate proceeds $14.7M with an expected additional $35–45M by year‑end, capex YTD $34.5M, and management expects restaurant closures to accelerate in H2 (previously guided ~50–100 closures) with an average sales transfer benefit of ~30%.Jack In The Box Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
39
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.26B | 1.47B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.47B | 1.14B |
| Gross Profit | 351.68M | 419.92M | 462.98M | 508.14M | 433.31M | 411.60M |
| EBITDA | 199.63M | 36.19M | 138.29M | 336.80M | 304.07M | 337.16M |
| Net Income | 35.61M | -80.72M | -36.70M | 130.83M | 115.78M | 165.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.01B | 2.59B | 2.74B | 3.00B | 2.92B | 1.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 69.36M | 51.53M | 24.75M | 157.65M | 108.89M | 55.35M |
| Total Debt | 2.61B | 3.12B | 3.18B | 3.16B | 3.17B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.93B | 3.53B | 3.59B | 3.72B | 3.66B | 2.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | -922.05M | -938.27M | -851.80M | -718.33M | -736.19M | -817.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 21.89M | 74.14M | -46.66M | 140.05M | 116.41M | 160.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 96.87M | 162.36M | 68.82M | 215.01M | 162.88M | 201.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 62.42M | -74.69M | -69.37M | 42.22M | -578.59M | -20.93M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -135.52M | -60.03M | -131.19M | -207.36M | 478.18M | -343.55M |
Jack In The Box Technical Analysis
Negative
12.98
Price Trends
11.89
Negative
15.73
Negative
17.05
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.35
Positive
42.49
Neutral
23.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JACK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.44, above the 50-day MA of 11.89, and below the 200-day MA of 17.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JACK.
Jack In The Box Risk Analysis
Jack In The Box disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jack In The Box reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Jack In The Box Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $430.94M | 12.51 | 10.14% | ― | 4.42% | 16.38% | |
63 Neutral | $1.48B | 7.07 | 150.73% | 8.15% | -1.84% | -17.48% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
50 Neutral | $1.06B | 17.53 | -8.28% | 4.72% | -2.41% | -64.77% | |
46 Neutral | $213.05M | 5.33 | -3.80% | 9.34% | -17.16% | ― | |
42 Neutral | $212.11M | -0.02 | -30.08% | ― | 5.20% | -6.01% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
JACK
Jack In The Box
11.35
-8.89
-43.92%
PZZA
Papa John's International
32.75
-7.80
-19.24%
WEN
Wendy's
7.62
-3.20
-29.58%
LOCO
El Pollo LoCo
14.14
5.14
57.02%
VENU
Venu Holding Corporation
3.73
-5.36
-58.97%
Jack In The Box Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Jack in the Box Names Mark King Interim CEO
Negative
May 13, 2026
Jack in the Box reported weaker second-quarter 2026 results for the period ended April 12, 2026, with systemwide same-store sales down 3.8%, total revenue falling 4.3% to $254.3 million and net earnings from continuing operations sliding to $12.5 ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Jack in the Box Adds Veteran Executive to Board
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. appointed veteran restaurant and consumer brands executive Eduardo Luz to its Board of Directors as an independent director, with Luz also joining the Compensation and Nominating Governance Committees. Luz,...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Jack in the Box Shareholders Ratify Rights Plan Extension
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Jack in the Box stockholders ratified the Board’s Stockholder Protection Rights Agreement, originally adopted in July 2025 and amended in September 2025, extending its expiration to July 1, 2028, unless earlier terminat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.