Jack In The Box (JACK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $243.28M
• Dividend Yield: 9.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 705.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: -6.75%
• EPS Growth: -118.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,606
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 1.00
• Shares Outstanding: 19,036,016
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 902,754
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 705,616
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.92
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 11.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.55
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 210.75
• 1Y Price Target: $21.46
• Price Target Upside: 67.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.14B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▼(-2.19% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance and a weak, highly levered capital structure (deeply negative equity), reinforced by bearish technicals. Low P/E and a high dividend yield provide valuation support, and the earnings call showed credible deleveraging actions, but operating trends and refinancing risk remain meaningful overhangs.

Positive Factors

Strategic asset-light shift

Divesting Del Taco accelerates a shift to a more asset-light, franchise-focused model, simplifying operations and enabling proceeds to reduce debt. This materially improves long-term capital allocation flexibility and concentrates management on scaling the core Jack brand and franchise economics.

Positive operating cash generation

Consistent positive operating cash flow provides a durable source to fund working capital, modest capex, and debt reduction initiatives. Even with volatile free cash flow, ongoing operating cash supports sustained operations and gives management a pathway to improve leverage over several quarters.

Technology and ops modernization

Modern POS, labor management and inventory systems enable lasting efficiencies: better labor scheduling, inventory control, and targeted promotions. These structural improvements can sustainably raise throughput, improve restaurant-level margins, and support scalable franchise operations over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Highly leveraged balance sheet

Deeply negative equity and sizable outstanding debt materially constrain financial flexibility, increase refinancing risk, and limit capacity for investments or dividends. This structural capital weakness raises long-term funding costs and makes the company sensitive to credit markets and interest rates.

Sharp margin deterioration

A roughly 710bp drop in restaurant-level margin reflects cost inflation and sales deleverage that erode unit economics. Sustained margin compression undermines profitability, reduces cash flow conversion, and makes it harder to delever the balance sheet without meaningful structural cost or pricing recovery.

Weak same-store sales and unit churn

Persistent same-store sales declines and net unit closures reduce royalty and rent revenues from franchisees and signal demand weakness. Continued comp pressure lowers recurring franchise income, limits operating leverage gains, and can perpetuate margin and cash-flow challenges over multiple quarters.

Jack In The Box Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Jack in the Box Inc. operates and franchises Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants. As of November 23, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 2,200 Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants in 21 states and Guam. The company was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Jack in the Box makes money primarily through a mix of (1) franchise-based revenue and (2) sales from company-operated restaurants, along with related fees and other revenues. 1) Franchise revenue (significant contributor): - Royalties: Franchisees pay ongoing royalties generally calculated as a percentage of restaurant sales. This provides recurring, relatively asset-light revenue tied to franchisees’ top-line performance. - Franchise fees: The company earns fees from new franchise agreements and development (e.g., when franchisees open new units or enter into certain contractual arrangements). - Rental income / lease-related income: In cases where the company controls the underlying real estate or holds master leases and subleases sites to franchisees, it can earn rental or sublease income and/or related margin. 2) Company-operated restaurant revenue: - Restaurant sales: For locations operated directly by the company, revenue comes from selling food and beverages to customers. Profitability depends on traffic, menu pricing/mix, promotional activity, and operating costs such as labor, food/packaging, occupancy, and utilities. 3) Other revenue drivers and factors: - Brand and system economics: Marketing programs and menu innovation can influence same-store sales and, for franchised units, royalty growth. The franchise mix also affects earnings because franchise revenue is typically higher-margin than company-operated restaurant sales. - Supplier and purchasing arrangements: The company manages brand standards and coordinated purchasing for the system; any specific vendor rebate or supply-chain income details not publicly specified here are null. Significant partnerships or contributors to earnings: null

Jack In The Box Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals have weakened: TTM revenue declined (~8%) and profitability turned negative (net loss; negative EBIT). Cash flow is a partial support with positive operating cash flow (~$75M) but slightly negative free cash flow (~-$10M). The largest risk is the highly levered, structurally weak balance sheet with deeply negative equity (TTM ~-$936M) and sizable debt.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show weakening fundamentals: revenue fell about 8% and profitability is negative (net loss with roughly -5.5% net margin). Operating performance is also pressured (negative EBIT and a low EBITDA margin around 2.5%), a sharp deterioration versus 2022–2023 when the company generated solid positive operating profit and net income. While gross margin has been relatively steady (~29–30%) over time, the recent collapse in operating profitability is the key concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is highly leveraged and structurally weak: stockholders’ equity is deeply negative across all periods (TTM around -$936M), which limits financial flexibility and makes leverage indicators unfavorable. Total debt remains sizable (TTM about $1.1B; historically over $3B in prior annual periods), and negative equity increases refinancing and balance-sheet risk even if debt has come down. Overall, the capital structure is the primary red flag.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is positive (~$75M), but free cash flow is slightly negative (about -$10M), indicating limited ability to fund the business and shareholder returns after investment needs. Prior years were volatile: 2023 and 2025 produced strong positive free cash flow, while 2024 and TTM turned negative. The company is still producing operating cash, but consistency and conversion into free cash flow have weakened recently.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.35B	1.47B	1.57B	1.69B	1.47B	1.14B
Gross Profit	370.97M	419.92M	462.98M	508.14M	433.31M	411.60M
EBITDA	13.30M	36.19M	138.29M	336.80M	304.07M	337.16M
Net Income	-69.44M	-80.72M	-36.70M	130.83M	115.78M	165.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.02B	2.59B	2.74B	3.00B	2.92B	1.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	71.97M	51.53M	24.75M	157.65M	108.89M	55.35M
Total Debt	2.63B	3.12B	3.18B	3.16B	3.17B	2.23B
Total Liabilities	2.96B	3.53B	3.59B	3.72B	3.66B	2.57B
Stockholders Equity	-936.04M	-938.27M	-851.80M	-718.33M	-736.19M	-817.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-9.82M	74.14M	-46.66M	140.05M	116.41M	160.11M
Operating Cash Flow	75.35M	162.36M	68.82M	215.01M	162.88M	201.12M
Investing Cash Flow	63.53M	-74.69M	-69.37M	42.22M	-578.59M	-20.93M
Financing Cash Flow	-144.14M	-60.03M	-131.19M	-207.36M	478.18M	-343.55M

Jack In The Box Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JACK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.92, below the 50-day MA of 19.20, and below the 200-day MA of 19.00, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.33 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JACK.

Jack In The Box Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LOCO	62 Neutral	$399.02M	11.56	9.56%	―	2.09%	12.10%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
WEN	57 Neutral	$1.34B	9.79	140.58%	8.15%	-0.21%	0.16%
JACK	49 Neutral	$243.28M	2.44	7.30%	9.34%	-6.75%	-118.94%
PZZA	48 Neutral	$1.17B	42.31	-6.99%	4.72%	-0.64%	-60.71%
VENU	44 Neutral	$151.30M	-18.82	-41.64%	―	―	―

Jack In The Box Corporate Events

Jack in the Box Shareholders Ratify Rights Plan Extension

On February 27, 2026, Jack in the Box stockholders ratified the Board’s Stockholder Protection Rights Agreement, originally adopted in July 2025 and amended in September 2025, extending its expiration to July 1, 2028, unless earlier terminated or superseded by certain corporate transactions. The continuation of this rights plan is aimed at safeguarding the company’s shareholder base and corporate control structure, reinforcing defenses against potential accumulation of significant stakes that could impact governance or strategic direction.

At the same annual meeting on February 27, 2026, shareholders elected all ten director nominees and approved all four other proposals, including ratification of KPMG LLP as auditor for fiscal 2026 and an advisory endorsement of executive compensation for fiscal 2025. Investors also backed an amendment to the 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan to increase shares available for issuance, signaling support for the company’s governance, leadership, and long-term incentive framework while ratifying the rights plan as part of its capital and control strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JACK) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jack In The Box stock, see the JACK Stock Forecast page.

Jack in the Box Finalizes Sale of Del Taco Unit

On December 22, 2025, Jack in the Box Inc. completed the previously announced sale of its Del Taco Holdings Inc. subsidiary, which owns and operates the Del Taco restaurant brand, to Yadav Enterprises’ assignee Del Taco Group, LLC for approximately $119 million in cash consideration, subject to post-closing adjustments. The company received about $109 million in cash at closing and a 21-day, $10 million promissory note accruing 8% annual interest, guaranteed by Yadav founder and CEO Anil Yadav, marking a significant step in Jack in the Box’s “Jack on Track” plan to simplify its business model, reduce debt, and accelerate its shift toward a more asset-light, franchise-focused structure, with implications for a leaner balance sheet and a more concentrated focus on its core Jack in the Box brand.

The most recent analyst rating on (JACK) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jack In The Box stock, see the JACK Stock Forecast page.