El Pollo LoCo (LOCO)
NASDAQ:LOCO
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El Pollo LoCo
(NASDAQ:LOCO)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(1.38% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/17/26
The score is primarily constrained by the sharp 2025 cash flow deterioration (negative operating and free cash flow) despite positive earnings, partially offset by improved leverage and steady profitability. Guidance and operational momentum are constructive, and valuation is modest, but technicals show an extended move (overbought signals) that raises near-term risk.
Positive Factors
Stronger leverage and balance sheet
Material debt reduction and a low debt-to-equity ratio materially lower financial risk and increase strategic optionality. A stronger capital structure supports continued franchise and remodel investment, reduces refinancing pressure, and gives management flexibility to fund growth without excessive interest burden.
Negative Factors
Negative operating and free cash flow
A sharp reversal in cash conversion undermines ability to self-fund capex, remodels, and expansion; it also weakens resilience to cost shocks. Persistent negative cash flow would force external financing or slower growth, making multi-year targets and shareholder returns harder to achieve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stronger leverage and balance sheet
Material debt reduction and a low debt-to-equity ratio materially lower financial risk and increase strategic optionality. A stronger capital structure supports continued franchise and remodel investment, reduces refinancing pressure, and gives management flexibility to fund growth without excessive interest burden.
Read all positive factors
El Pollo LoCo (LOCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$413.70M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)242.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth2.09%
EPS Growth12.10%
CountryUS
Employees4,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding29,956,259
10 Day Avg. Volume278,012
30 Day Avg. Volume242,502
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.99
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio12.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside8.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$498.53M
El Pollo LoCo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name. As of May 04, 2022, the company operated 480 restaurants comprising 189...
How the Company Makes Money
The company makes money primarily from (1) sales at company-operated restaurants and (2) revenue derived from franchised and licensed restaurants. For company-operated locations, revenue is generated from direct-to-consumer food and beverage sales...
El Pollo LoCo Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized clear operational momentum: top-line growth, improving restaurant-level margins, successful menu innovations, strong digital and loyalty engagement, and a scaled development pipeline with improved unit economics. These positives are tempered by softer transactions, higher occupancy and G&A costs (including one-time items), modest cash on hand vs. debt, and expected near-term inflationary pressures. Management provided multi-year targets and 2026 guidance that assume continued margin expansion and unit growth while investing in G&A and technology to support scale.Positive Updates
Revenue and Company-Operated Sales Growth
Total Q4 revenue of $123.5M vs $114.3M a year ago (~+10.0%). Company-operated restaurant revenue rose 7.1% to $102.4M from $95.6M, driven by a 0.4% company-operated comparable sales increase and an extra operating week in 2025.
Negative Updates
Transaction Declines Offset by Higher Average Check
Company-operated transactions decreased 2.3% in Q4 (company comps +0.4% driven by +2.7% average check). Full-year 2025 systemwide transactions decreased 0.6%, indicating reliance on pricing/average check to drive sales rather than traffic gains.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Company-Operated Sales Growth
Total Q4 revenue of $123.5M vs $114.3M a year ago (~+10.0%). Company-operated restaurant revenue rose 7.1% to $102.4M from $95.6M, driven by a 0.4% company-operated comparable sales increase and an extra operating week in 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management provided 2026 guidance calling for systemwide comparable store sales growth of 2–3%, roughly 18–20 new restaurant openings (including 3–4 company‑owned and 15–16 franchised), capital spending of $37–40M, G&A of $52–54M (excluding one‑time charges and including about $6.5M stock‑based comp), adjusted EBITDA of $66–68M, restaurant‑level margins around 18.0–18.5% (management also referenced a 17.5–18.0% margin range), an effective tax rate of ~29% before discrete items, commodity inflation of ~1–2% for the year, wage inflation of ~2–3% for company locations (Q4 wage inflation was 0.6%), 25–35 company remodels and 30–40 franchise remodels planned for 2026, and multi‑year targets for 2027–28 of low‑single‑digit systemwide comparable growth, mid‑single‑digit systemwide unit growth and high‑single‑digit adjusted EBITDA growth; for context they closed 2025 with adjusted EBITDA of $16.9M and reported Q4 company‑operated revenue of $102.4M, with debt of $51.0M and $6.2M cash at year‑end (subsequently reducing debt to $48.0M).El Pollo LoCo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 490.05M | 473.01M | 468.66M | 469.96M | 454.36M |
| Gross Profit | 140.35M | 103.52M | 93.37M | 83.70M | 99.27M |
| EBITDA | 58.42M | 56.91M | 55.09M | 44.97M | 56.45M |
| Net Income | 26.49M | 25.68M | 25.55M | 20.80M | 29.12M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 606.65M | 592.01M | 592.30M | 597.22M | 613.79M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.23M | 2.48M | 7.29M | 20.49M | 30.05M |
| Total Debt | 239.57M | 263.02M | 273.33M | 252.88M | 233.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 315.57M | 331.35M | 341.61M | 316.07M | 303.16M |
| Stockholders Equity | 291.08M | 260.67M | 250.70M | 281.15M | 310.62M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 25.44M | 27.70M | 19.36M | 18.63M | 35.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 48.08M | 46.78M | 40.69M | 38.55M | 52.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.64M | -18.94M | -13.45M | -18.91M | -12.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.70M | -32.65M | -40.45M | -29.19M | -22.79M |
El Pollo LoCo Technical Analysis
Positive
13.81
Price Trends
11.48
Positive
11.15
Positive
10.72
Positive
Market Momentum
0.87
Negative
69.10
Neutral
74.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LOCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.63, above the 50-day MA of 11.48, and above the 200-day MA of 10.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LOCO.
El Pollo LoCo Risk Analysis
El Pollo LoCo disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. El Pollo LoCo reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
El Pollo LoCo Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $2.70B | 15.71 | 37.06% | 2.11% | 4.90% | 27.14% | |
62 Neutral | $413.70M | 11.56 | 9.51% | ― | 2.09% | 12.10% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $1.29B | 9.79 | 140.58% | 8.15% | -0.21% | 0.16% | |
48 Neutral | $1.04B | 42.31 | -6.99% | 4.72% | -0.64% | -60.71% | |
47 Neutral | $184.65M | 2.44 | 7.30% | 9.34% | -6.75% | -118.94% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LOCO
El Pollo LoCo
13.81
3.51
34.08%
JACK
Jack In The Box
9.70
-17.49
-64.33%
PZZA
Papa John's International
31.76
-7.48
-19.06%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
54.07
6.37
13.35%
WEN
Wendy's
6.80
-6.97
-50.61%
El Pollo LoCo Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
El Pollo Loco appoints new independent board director
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 27, 2026, El Pollo Loco announced that longtime board member Mark Buller would retire from its Board of Directors effective February 28, 2026, after a decade of service, with the company emphasizing that his departure was not due to any...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.