El Pollo LoCo (LOCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $303.44M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 242.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 2.09%
• EPS Growth: 12.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.27
• Shares Outstanding: 29,954,935
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 278,012
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 242,502
• PEG Ratio: 0.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.56
• 1Y Price Target: $12.75
• Price Target Upside: 25.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(13.52% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid fundamental performance (strong TTM revenue growth and improved leverage), helped by a reasonable P/E and constructive earnings-call margin and growth commentary. These positives are partially offset by weak cash conversion metrics and softer technical momentum (below key moving averages with slightly negative MACD).

Positive Factors

Digital Business Growth

The growth in digital sales indicates a successful adaptation to consumer preferences, enhancing customer engagement and potentially increasing sales efficiency.

Franchise Revenue Increase

The increase in franchise revenue reflects successful expansion and adoption of new systems, contributing to a stable and diversified income stream.

Restaurant Contribution Margin Improvement

Improved margins suggest operational efficiency and cost management, which can lead to sustained profitability in a competitive industry.

Negative Factors

Volatile Revenue Growth

Inconsistent revenue growth and declining cash flow can hinder long-term planning and investment, affecting the company's growth trajectory.

Decrease in Company-Operated Restaurant Revenue

A decrease in revenue from company-operated restaurants indicates potential challenges in maintaining customer traffic and sales volume.

Increased Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses, including G&A costs, can pressure margins and reduce profitability if not managed effectively.

El Pollo LoCo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name. As of May 04, 2022, the company operated 480 restaurants comprising 189 company-operated and 291 franchised restaurants located in California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, and Louisiana. It also licenses one restaurant in the Philippines. The company was formerly known as Chicken Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. in April 2014. El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Costa Mesa, California.

How the Company Makes Money

El Pollo Loco generates revenue primarily through the sale of its food and beverage offerings at its company-owned and franchised locations. The company employs a dual revenue model consisting of company-operated restaurants and franchise operations, with a significant portion of earnings coming from franchise fees and royalties. Revenue streams include direct sales from in-store dining, takeout, and drive-thru services, as well as catering services for events. Additionally, seasonal promotions, limited-time offerings, and loyalty programs encourage repeat business and customer engagement, contributing further to its earnings. Partnerships with delivery services also enhance accessibility and sales volume.

El Pollo LoCo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (23.5% TTM revenue growth and slightly improved gross margin) is tempered by a modest dip in net margin. Balance sheet leverage improved (debt-to-equity down to 0.68) with stable ROE, but cash flow quality is the key drag given weak cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income at 0.15).

Income Statement

El Pollo LoCo has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 23.5% increase in the TTM period, indicating robust demand. The gross profit margin improved to 22.6% from 21.9% in the previous year, reflecting better cost management. However, the net profit margin slightly decreased to 5.4% from 5.5%, suggesting some pressure on net earnings. Overall, the company shows solid revenue growth and stable profitability, though net margins could be improved.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.68 in the TTM period from 1.01 in the previous year, indicating a stronger equity position and reduced leverage. Return on equity is stable at 9.6%, showing consistent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 46.9%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. While the reduction in leverage is positive, maintaining or improving ROE will be crucial for future financial health.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow growth is positive at 3.7% in the TTM period, showing improved cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio has decreased to 0.15, indicating potential challenges in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.24, suggesting room for improvement in cash flow efficiency. Overall, while cash flow generation is positive, efficiency in cash conversion needs attention.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	480.81M	473.01M	468.66M	469.96M	454.36M	426.09M
Gross Profit	108.63M	103.52M	93.37M	83.70M	99.27M	93.67M
EBITDA	56.54M	56.91M	55.09M	44.97M	56.45M	50.30M
Net Income	25.90M	25.68M	25.55M	20.80M	29.12M	24.47M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	602.75M	592.01M	592.30M	597.22M	613.79M	605.22M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.87M	2.48M	7.29M	20.49M	30.05M	13.22M
Total Debt	191.34M	263.02M	273.33M	252.88M	233.47M	263.13M
Total Liabilities	319.82M	331.35M	341.61M	316.07M	303.16M	327.64M
Stockholders Equity	282.93M	260.67M	250.70M	281.15M	310.62M	277.58M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	21.49M	27.70M	19.36M	18.63M	35.06M	33.86M
Operating Cash Flow	39.80M	46.78M	40.69M	38.55M	52.10M	40.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-18.31M	-18.94M	-13.45M	-18.91M	-12.48M	-6.69M
Financing Cash Flow	-18.51M	-32.65M	-40.45M	-29.19M	-22.79M	-28.71M

El Pollo LoCo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.13
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LOCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.78, below the 50-day MA of 10.87, and below the 200-day MA of 10.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LOCO.

El Pollo LoCo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LOCO	68 Neutral	$303.44M	11.49	9.63%	―	2.09%	12.10%
CAKE	66 Neutral	$2.89B	17.60	39.14%	2.11%	4.90%	27.14%
WEN	62 Neutral	$1.48B	8.26	100.85%	8.15%	-0.21%	0.16%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
PZZA	57 Neutral	$1.15B	31.02	―	4.72%	-0.64%	-60.71%
JACK	49 Neutral	$400.59M	-4.92	―	9.34%	-6.75%	-118.94%

El Pollo LoCo Corporate Events

El Pollo Loco appoints new independent board director

On January 27, 2026, El Pollo Loco announced that longtime board member Mark Buller would retire from its Board of Directors effective February 28, 2026, after a decade of service, with the company emphasizing that his departure was not due to any disagreement and crediting him with helping improve restaurant operations. To fill the resulting vacancy and support its national expansion strategy, the board, on the same date and effective March 1, 2026, appointed Domino’s Pizza Executive Vice President and Chief Restaurant Officer Frank Garrido as an independent director and member of the Compensation and Nominating and Governance committees, bringing extensive franchise, operations, and technology experience from major restaurant brands that is expected to strengthen El Pollo Loco’s operational leadership and focus on maximizing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (LOCO) stock is a Buy with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on El Pollo LoCo stock, see the LOCO Stock Forecast page.

El Pollo Loco Announces Board Resignations and Appointments

On December 10, 2025, El Pollo Loco announced the resignation of William R. Floyd and Samuel N. Borgese from its Board of Directors, with no disagreements cited. Concurrently, Robert D. Wright, CEO of Potbelly Sandwich Works, and Tana Davila, Chief Marketing Officer of Dutch Bros Coffee, were appointed as independent directors, effective January 1, 2026. These appointments are seen as strategic moves to leverage their extensive industry experience for El Pollo Loco’s growth. Additionally, Douglas Babb was named Chairman of the Board, succeeding Floyd, while other board roles were adjusted to align with the new appointments.

The most recent analyst rating on (LOCO) stock is a Buy with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on El Pollo LoCo stock, see the LOCO Stock Forecast page.