CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)
NYSE:CAVA
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CAVA Group, Inc.
(NYSE:CAVA)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$90.00
▲(7.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
CAVA scores as moderately attractive: improving fundamentals and a constructive technical uptrend are key positives, reinforced by upbeat 2026 growth/EBITDA guidance and strong liquidity from the latest call. The main constraints on the score are the 2025 financial volatility (slower revenue/margins and weaker FCF conversion) and a very high P/E with no dividend, which increases downside risk if execution or comps soften further.
Positive Factors
Unit Growth & Productivity
Sustained unit expansion with 2025 cohort AUVs above $3.0M and new-unit productivity >100% indicates reproducible unit economics. Durable footprint growth improves scale, purchasing power and revenue runway, supporting multi‑year margin leverage if productivity holds across new cohorts.
Negative Factors
2025 Revenue & Margin Setback
A sharp annual revenue drop and compressed net margin signal fragile topline momentum and weaker earnings power. Such a decline can constrain reinvestment, slow deleveraging of fixed costs, and increase sensitivity of future profits to execution and consumer demand over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Unit Growth & Productivity
Sustained unit expansion with 2025 cohort AUVs above $3.0M and new-unit productivity >100% indicates reproducible unit economics. Durable footprint growth improves scale, purchasing power and revenue runway, supporting multi‑year margin leverage if productivity holds across new cohorts.
Read all positive factors
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.71B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)109.2
Beta (1Y)1.72
Revenue Growth23.93%
EPS Growth153.50%
CountryUS
Employees10,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.04
Shares Outstanding116,377,760
10 Day Avg. Volume2,696,463
30 Day Avg. Volume3,688,793
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.11
Price to Book (P/B)8.92
Price to Sales (P/S)5.90
P/FCF Ratio266.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit47.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda67.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$86.10Price Target Upside3.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)0.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.45B
CAVA Group, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CAVA Group, Inc. owns and operates a chain of Mediterranean restaurants. The company offers salads, dips, spreads, toppings, and dressings. It sells its products through whole food markets and grocery stores. The company also provides online food ...
How the Company Makes Money
CAVA primarily makes money by selling food and beverages to customers through its CAVA restaurants. Its core revenue stream is restaurant sales from in-store purchases, takeout, and digital orders (including delivery orders fulfilled through third...
CAVA Group, Inc. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Indicates the total number of restaurant locations, reflecting the company’s expansion strategy and market penetration. A growing count suggests potential revenue growth and brand presence.
Indicates the total number of restaurant locations, reflecting the company’s expansion strategy and market penetration. A growing count suggests potential revenue growth and brand presence.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCAVA Group, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes significant growth and strong unit economics — record revenue (> $1B), double-digit top-line growth, robust new-unit productivity and strong liquidity — balanced against margin pressure from commodity and LTO costs, elevated investment and capex-driven cash flow reduction. Management provided a constructive FY2026 outlook while taking conservative assumptions for macro uncertainty and flagging near-term margin headwinds (notably salmon, higher tax rate and increased equity compensation). Overall the positive operating momentum, healthy balance sheet and explicit growth plan materially outweigh the headwinds tied largely to planned investments and temporary cost pressures.Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue — First Year over $1B
CAVA surpassed $1.0 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, with full-year revenue growing 22.5% year-over-year and 63.1% over the last 2 years.
Negative Updates
Soft Q4 Same-Restaurant Sales
Same-restaurant sales in Q4 were only +0.5% year-over-year, though company notes stronger 2-year and 3-year stacks (+21.7% and +33.1%, respectively) and full-year same-restaurant sales of 4%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Revenue — First Year over $1B
CAVA surpassed $1.0 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, with full-year revenue growing 22.5% year-over-year and 63.1% over the last 2 years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CAVA’s 2026 guidance calls for 74–76 net new restaurants, CAVA same‑restaurant sales of 3%–5%, and a restaurant‑level profit margin of 23.7%–24.2% (with preopening costs of $19.5M–$20M), driving adjusted EBITDA (including the burden of preopening) of $176M–$184M; the outlook embeds a ~90% new‑restaurant productivity assumption, assumes a ~1.4% in‑restaurant price increase taken in Jan‑2026 with no further price increases, expects salmon (launching Q1/Q2) to be a ~100 bps restaurant‑margin headwind but penny profit neutral, anticipates low single‑digit food/bev/packaging inflation and low‑to‑mid single‑digit labor inflation (including modest AGM investments), projects G&A as a percent of revenue to remain relatively flat, plans stock‑based compensation of $22M–$24M in 2026 (with ~55% of that expense in H1 due to vesting timing), expects an effective tax rate of ~25%–30% for the year (slightly lower in H1), and enters the year with $393M cash & investments, 0 debt and a $75M undrawn revolver (with plans to increase/extend it in Q1).CAVA Group, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.18B | 963.71M | 728.70M | 564.12M | 500.07M |
| Gross Profit | 216.81M | 241.81M | 180.35M | 97.98M | 82.15M |
| EBITDA | 144.46M | 121.31M | 78.86M | 27.95M | 12.07M |
| Net Income | 63.74M | 130.32M | 13.28M | -58.99M | -37.39M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.36B | 1.17B | 983.76M | 583.88M | 362.19M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 282.92M | 366.12M | 332.43M | 39.13M | 140.33M |
| Total Debt | 466.25M | 378.71M | 336.20M | 314.73M | 15.34M |
| Total Liabilities | 580.37M | 474.10M | 412.95M | 1.03B | 755.22M |
| Stockholders Equity | 779.66M | 695.57M | 570.80M | -448.50M | -393.02M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.14M | 52.90M | -41.70M | -98.28M | -53.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 184.84M | 161.03M | 97.10M | 6.04M | 3.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -273.04M | -108.13M | -138.81M | -104.16M | -56.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.00M | -19.20M | 335.01M | -3.08M | 143.15M |
CAVA Group, Inc. Technical Analysis
Positive
83.42
Price Trends
75.03
Positive
66.08
Positive
68.65
Positive
Market Momentum
1.22
Positive
56.02
Neutral
59.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 83.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.54, above the 50-day MA of 75.03, and above the 200-day MA of 68.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CAVA.
CAVA Group, Inc. Risk Analysis
CAVA Group, Inc. disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CAVA Group, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CAVA Group, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $6.46B | 13.13 | 134.24% | ― | 23.18% | 138.17% | |
63 Neutral | $9.71B | 109.16 | 8.43% | ― | 23.93% | 153.50% | |
63 Neutral | $2.78B | 15.71 | 37.06% | 2.11% | 4.90% | 27.14% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $4.56B | 41.12 | -24.54% | 0.45% | 15.56% | 79.02% | |
60 Neutral | $3.96B | 71.38 | 9.14% | ― | 13.49% | 402.23% | |
44 Neutral | $675.95M | ― | -33.40% | ― | 2.43% | -23.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CAVA
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83.42
-8.53
-9.28%
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CAVA Group, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
CAVA Group Amends Credit Agreement to Bolster Liquidity
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
On March 20, 2026, CAVA Group, Inc. entered into Amendment No. 3 to its existing Credit Agreement with various financial institutions and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. acting as administrative agent. The amendment, formalized and signed on March 25, 2...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.