Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ)
NASDAQ:DPZ
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Domino's Pizza
(NASDAQ:DPZ)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$449.00
▲(23.85% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is anchored by solid profitability and cash generation but is held back by a high-risk balance sheet with persistent negative equity and meaningful debt. The latest earnings call improves the outlook with clear 2026 growth/profit guidance and strong store expansion plans, while technicals remain mixed and valuation is moderate rather than compelling.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Improving operating and free cash flow shows durable cash conversion from operations. This sustained cash generation supports ongoing franchise expansion, dividend increases, buybacks and capex needs, providing flexibility to invest in technology and withstand cyclical pressures over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet
Persistent negative equity and material debt create an aggressive capital structure that raises solvency risk. Even with strong cash flows, negative equity limits flexibility, increases refinancing and covenant risk, and could constrain strategic options or force higher cost funding over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Improving operating and free cash flow shows durable cash conversion from operations. This sustained cash generation supports ongoing franchise expansion, dividend increases, buybacks and capex needs, providing flexibility to invest in technology and withstand cyclical pressures over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.19B
Dividend Yield1.63%
Average Volume (3M)1.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.8
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth3.92%
EPS Growth4.98%
CountryUS
Employees10,200
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.35
Shares Outstanding33,625,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,150,476
30 Day Avg. Volume1,033,329
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.60
Price to Book (P/B)-3.67
Price to Sales (P/S)2.90
P/FCF Ratio21.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$468.75Price Target Upside29.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)19.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.29B
Domino's Pizza Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Domino's Pizza, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a pizza company in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. The company offers pizzas under the D...
How the Company Makes Money
Domino's generates revenue primarily through the sale of pizza and other food items at its franchised and company-owned stores. The company's revenue model is multifaceted, with key revenue streams coming from retail sales in its restaurants and f...
Domino's Pizza Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue from various business segments, such as delivery, carryout, and international operations, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and profitability.
Breaks down revenue from various business segments, such as delivery, carryout, and international operations, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDomino's Pizza Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized substantial operational momentum: multi-year initiatives (Parmesan Stuffed Crust, Best Deal Ever, loyalty, carryout) drove order growth, strong net store expansion, rising franchisee profitability, higher operating income and a shareholder-friendly capital allocation. Management acknowledged challenges—notably DPE underperformance, insurance-driven corporate store margin pressure, a pressured macro environment and modest delivery comps—but provided concrete guidance (2026 global retail sales ~6%, U.S. comp ~3%, operating income growth ~8%), higher international net store cadence, and technology/operational investments. Overall, the positives (broad sales growth, store expansion, franchisee economics, successful product/value initiatives, and shareholder returns) outweigh the manageable lowlights and identified risks.Positive Updates
Global Retail Sales Growth
Global retail sales grew 4.9% in Q4 (excluding foreign currency) and 5.4% for fiscal 2025, driven by positive US and international comps and global net store growth.
Negative Updates
DPE Underperformance and International Headwind
Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DPE) continued to underperform and was cited as a drag on international same-store sales; management emphasized DPE turnaround as a top priority and noted it prevented hitting the long-term international comp algorithm in 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Global Retail Sales Growth
Global retail sales grew 4.9% in Q4 (excluding foreign currency) and 5.4% for fiscal 2025, driven by positive US and international comps and global net store growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Domino’s 2026 guidance (ex‑the estimated ~2% impact of a 53rd week) calls for roughly 6% global retail sales growth, driven by a 3% U.S. comp (weighted to be higher in H1), international same‑store sales of about 1–2%, 175+ net U.S. store openings and ~800 net international openings, operating income growth of ~8% excl. foreign currency and refranchising gains with slight operating‑margin expansion, G&A ≈2.3% of global retail sales, food basket up low‑single digits, continued supply‑chain margin expansion (but less procurement productivity than recent years), a $0.01 tech fee increase to $0.385 per digital transaction, interest expense roughly in line with 2025, an expected tax rate of 21–23%, ~ $120M CapEx in 2026 (reverting to ~$110M in 2027), a modest FX benefit to operating income at current rates, and management expects meaningful market‑share gains (including incremental DoorDash/aggregator penetration) and continued growth in franchisee store‑level EBITDA.Domino's Pizza Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.94B | 4.71B | 4.48B | 4.54B | 4.36B |
| Gross Profit | 1.97B | 1.85B | 1.73B | 1.65B | 1.69B |
| EBITDA | 1.06B | 1.01B | 929.55M | 851.34M | 890.43M |
| Net Income | 601.70M | 584.17M | 519.12M | 452.26M | 510.47M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.80B | 1.74B | 1.67B | 1.60B | 1.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 433.99M | 186.13M | 114.10M | 60.36M | 148.16M |
| Total Debt | 5.23B | 5.20B | 5.21B | 5.25B | 5.29B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.70B | 5.70B | 5.75B | 5.79B | 5.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | -3.90B | -3.96B | -4.07B | -4.19B | -4.21B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 671.50M | 512.01M | 485.47M | 388.08M | 560.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 792.06M | 624.90M | 590.86M | 475.32M | 654.21M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -70.19M | -31.23M | -106.92M | -53.68M | -142.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -752.09M | -532.22M | -476.36M | -515.95M | -522.83M |
Domino's Pizza Technical Analysis
Negative
362.53
Price Trends
394.15
Negative
403.42
Negative
422.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-8.42
Positive
34.15
Neutral
5.74
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DPZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 362.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 390.88, below the 50-day MA of 394.15, and below the 200-day MA of 422.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.74 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DPZ.
Domino's Pizza Risk Analysis
Domino's Pizza disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Domino's Pizza reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We and our franchisees are subject to extensive laws and government regulation and requirements issued by other groups and our failure to comply with existing or increased laws and regulations could adversely affect our business and operating results. Q4, 2025
Domino's Pizza Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $44.00B | 26.98 | -20.57% | 1.84% | 11.60% | -4.33% | |
67 Neutral | $12.19B | 23.81 | -15.28% | 1.63% | 3.92% | 4.98% | |
64 Neutral | $33.24B | 50.42 | 23.08% | 3.60% | 16.82% | -29.91% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $1.76B | 7.29 | 32.50% | 3.27% | 1.21% | 67.88% | |
57 Neutral | $1.36B | 9.79 | 140.58% | 8.15% | -0.21% | 0.16% | |
48 Neutral | $1.09B | 42.31 | -6.99% | 4.72% | -0.64% | -60.71% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
362.53
-96.53
-21.03%
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings
8.37
0.54
6.88%
PZZA
Papa John's International
33.12
-5.84
-15.00%
WEN
Wendy's
7.14
-6.73
-48.52%
YUM
Yum! Brands
159.16
3.48
2.23%
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
72.92
7.53
11.51%
Domino's Pizza Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Domino’s Pizza Announces Retirement of Long-Serving Board Director
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Domino’s Pizza announced that long-serving director James A. Goldman will retire from its Board of Directors and will not stand for reelection at the company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders in April. After m...
Executive/Board Changes
Domino’s Pizza Board Member Resigns in November 2025
Neutral
Nov 25, 2025
On November 19, 2025, C. Andrew Ballard resigned from the Board of Directors of Domino’s Pizza, Inc. His resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations, policies, or practices.The most recent analyst rating ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.