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Domino's Pizza
(NASDAQ:DPZ)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$387.00
▲(16.23% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/21/26
DPZ scores in the mid-range primarily due to strong profitability and cash generation being offset by elevated balance-sheet risk (high debt and negative equity). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and a ~2.27% dividend yield, while technicals point to improving momentum that remains below key longer-term trend levels. The latest earnings call was net positive on demand and growth levers, but near-term execution issues (ticket/marketing) and delivery softness temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Franchised business model & supply chain scale
Domino’s predominantly franchised model creates durable, asset-light royalty and fee income while its distribution network captures supply-chain gross margin. This dual revenue stream supports stable margins and recurring cash flows with limited corporate-store capex over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High leverage and negative equity
A highly leveraged capital structure with materially negative equity elevates refinancing, interest rate and covenant risks, reducing strategic flexibility. In a downturn or rising-rate environment this structure could constrain capital allocation, pressuring franchise support and long-term investment capacity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Franchised business model & supply chain scale
Domino’s predominantly franchised model creates durable, asset-light royalty and fee income while its distribution network captures supply-chain gross margin. This dual revenue stream supports stable margins and recurring cash flows with limited corporate-store capex over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Domino's Pizza Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks revenue into business lines and regions—company-owned store sales, franchise fees and royalties, supply-chain or product sales, and geographic splits. Shows which parts of the business drive top-line growth, how concentrated revenue is by segment or region, and where currency moves or local demand swings could create risk or opportunity.
Breaks revenue into business lines and regions—company-owned store sales, franchise fees and royalties, supply-chain or product sales, and geographic splits. Shows which parts of the business drive top-line growth, how concentrated revenue is by segment or region, and where currency moves or local demand swings could create risk or opportunity.
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The Fly
The FlyDomino's Pizza (DPZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.50B
Dividend Yield2.15%
Average Volume (3M)1.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.6
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth5.16%
EPS Growth2.13%
CountryUS
Employees10,200
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.70
Shares Outstanding33,081,734
10 Day Avg. Volume1,180,463
30 Day Avg. Volume1,024,446
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.60
Price to Book (P/B)-3.67
Price to Sales (P/S)2.90
P/FCF Ratio21.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$378.75Price Target Upside13.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)18.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.19B
Domino's Pizza Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates as a leading international and domestic purveyor of pizza, managing its extensive operations through three distinct segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. The company is primarily recognized...
How the Company Makes Money
Domino's makes money primarily through its franchised business model and related supply chain operations, supplemented by sales from company-owned stores. Key revenue streams include: (1) Supply chain revenue: Domino's sells food, ingredients, and...
Domino's Pizza Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 20, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call was positive — Domino's reported meaningful order count growth, continued net store additions (nearly 1,000 over the trailing 12 months), supply chain and franchise fee strength, strong aggregator momentum (now #1 on Uber and DoorDash), and continued capital returns ($231M repurchased YTD with $1.23B remaining). Notable near-term weaknesses included a Q2 ticket miss tied to a premium product/messaging rollout that held back same-store sales (U.S. comp +0.1%) and pressured short-term franchisee profitability and the U.S. development pipeline, plus a small delivery comp decline (-0.7%) and an international comp drag related to DPE. Management maintained a mid-to-high single-digit operating income growth outlook and updated unit/mix expectations while outlining corrective marketing actions and a new product pipeline expected to drive incremental occasions. On balance, the positive operational momentum and strategic levers outweigh the near-term execution missteps.Positive Updates
Meaningful Order Count Growth
Company reported order counts were "up meaningfully" in Q2 across the business and individually in delivery and carryout, driving customer acquisition into the Flywheel loyalty program and fueling supply chain gross margin dollar growth.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Sales and Ticket Miss
U.S. same-store sales grew only 0.1% in Q2; management attributed a miss vs. expectations to a decline in average ticket driven by rolling over prior-year Stuffed Crust and a premium series (Slice Sauce) that "did not resonate," leading to a drag on ticket and same-store sales.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Meaningful Order Count Growth
Company reported order counts were "up meaningfully" in Q2 across the business and individually in delivery and carryout, driving customer acquisition into the Flywheel loyalty program and fueling supply chain gross margin dollar growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance (ex‑53rd week), calling for U.S. same‑store sales up low single digits and international same‑store sales up low single digits (including a World Cup benefit), about 175 net new U.S. stores (a slight trim from 175+ previously) and roughly 800 net international stores, global retail sales growth of mid‑single digits, and operating income growth of mid‑to‑high single digits (each excluding foreign currency, refranchising gains and the corporate aircraft sale gain); they also reiterated capital returns, noting ~632,000 shares repurchased for ~$231M year‑to‑date with ~ $1.23B remaining on the buyback authorization and an expectation to deliver meaningful cash to shareholders in 2026 and beyond.Domino's Pizza Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.03B | 4.94B | 4.71B | 4.48B | 4.54B | 4.36B |
| Gross Profit | 2.01B | 1.97B | 1.85B | 1.73B | 1.65B | 1.69B |
| EBITDA | 990.62M | 1.06B | 1.01B | 929.55M | 851.34M | 890.43M |
| Net Income | 596.52M | 601.70M | 584.17M | 519.12M | 452.26M | 510.47M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.76B | 1.80B | 1.74B | 1.67B | 1.60B | 1.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 164.84M | 433.99M | 186.13M | 114.10M | 60.36M | 148.16M |
| Total Debt | 5.12B | 5.23B | 5.20B | 5.21B | 5.25B | 5.29B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.75B | 5.70B | 5.70B | 5.75B | 5.79B | 5.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | -3.98B | -3.90B | -3.96B | -4.07B | -4.19B | -4.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 653.47M | 671.50M | 512.01M | 485.47M | 388.08M | 560.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 777.80M | 792.06M | 624.90M | 590.86M | 475.32M | 654.21M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -109.63M | -70.19M | -31.23M | -106.92M | -53.68M | -142.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -805.10M | -752.09M | -532.22M | -476.36M | -515.95M | -522.83M |
Domino's Pizza Technical Analysis
Positive
332.97
Price Trends
316.06
Positive
333.20
Positive
368.71
Negative
Market Momentum
13.65
Negative
69.67
Neutral
84.95
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DPZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 332.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 330.11, above the 50-day MA of 316.06, and below the 200-day MA of 368.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 13.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DPZ.
Domino's Pizza Risk Analysis
Domino's Pizza disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Domino's Pizza reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Domino's Pizza Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $42.25B | 19.14 | -29.77% | 1.96% | 10.28% | 56.85% | |
68 Neutral | $1.70B | 7.36 | 32.65% | 3.42% | 7.89% | 74.64% | |
65 Neutral | $11.50B | 19.63 | -15.15% | 2.24% | 5.16% | 2.13% | |
64 Neutral | $33.78B | 21.52 | 27.14% | 3.50% | 9.26% | -3.76% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $1.40B | 9.44 | 130.59% | 8.01% | -1.84% | -17.48% | |
50 Neutral | $983.77M | 35.60 | -6.47% | 6.06% | -2.41% | -64.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
367.63
-71.04
-16.19%
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings
8.34
1.83
28.01%
PZZA
Papa John's International
30.72
-7.58
-19.79%
WEN
Wendy's
7.69
-1.62
-17.37%
YUM
Yum! Brands
147.68
10.81
7.90%
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
73.88
8.16
12.41%
Domino's Pizza Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Domino’s Pizza Bolsters Board with New Independent Directors
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Domino’s Pizza expanded its Board of Directors from eight to ten members by appointing Michael C. Creedon, Jr., CEO of Dollar Tree, and Anneliese Olson, a senior HP Inc. executive, as independent directors effective July 15...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Domino’s Pizza announces CEO succession and leadership transition
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Domino’s Pizza announced a planned leadership transition in which Chief Operating Officer and President – Domino’s U.S. Joe Jordan will become chief executive officer and join the board on October 1, 2026. Curre...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.