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Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ)
NASDAQ:DPZ
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Domino's Pizza (DPZ) AI Stock Analysis

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DPZ

Domino's Pizza

(NASDAQ:DPZ)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$518.00
▲(7.70%Upside)
Domino's Pizza's strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and profitability, is a major strength, supported by positive sentiment from the latest earnings call. However, high leverage and valuation concerns present risks. The technical outlook is stable, with potential for modest gains.
Positive Factors
Market Share Gains
Domino's continues to capture market share with a deliberate strategy, expanding its presence while competitors have closed locations.
Partnerships and Initiatives
The rollout of the DoorDash partnership, continued benefits of Parmesan stuffed crust pizza, and loyalty program revamp are expected to accelerate performance above consensus.
Value Strategy
The return of the $9.99 Best Deal Ever could support a value strategy that competitors may struggle to sustain.
Negative Factors
Growth Rate Concerns
There is an ongoing debate about Domino's Pizza Inc.'s growth rate within a slow-growing segment, which remains a key topic.
Volatile Macro Backdrop
Achieving a 15%+ return would require the multiple to be 27x, which would be hard to sustain in a volatile macro backdrop unless Domino’s surprises with an early entry into a new category or acceleration in net openings in international markets.

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Domino's Pizza Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDomino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is a leading global pizza delivery and carryout chain with a presence in numerous countries. Founded in 1960 and headquartered in Ann Arbor, Michigan, the company operates through a network of company-owned and franchised stores. Domino's offers a diverse menu that includes a variety of pizzas, pastas, sandwiches, chicken, and side items, along with beverages and desserts. Known for its innovative technology and efficient delivery service, Domino's has established itself as a key player in the quick-service restaurant sector.
How the Company Makes MoneyDomino's Pizza generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its company-owned stores and the collection of royalties and fees from franchised locations. Franchisees pay an initial franchise fee, ongoing royalties based on a percentage of their sales, and contribute to a national advertising fund. In addition to traditional sales channels, Domino's leverages its digital platforms, including a robust online ordering system and mobile app, to drive sales and enhance customer convenience. Significant partnerships with beverage and ingredient suppliers also contribute to cost efficiencies and revenue growth. The company's focus on expanding its global footprint through the opening of new stores, both company-owned and franchised, further drives its revenue generation.

Domino's Pizza Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Store Count by Type
Store Count by Type
Shows the number of different types of Domino's stores, such as traditional locations and non-traditional venues, highlighting the company's expansion strategy and market penetration.
Chart InsightsDomino's Pizza has seen a steady increase in US franchise and international store counts, reflecting robust global expansion. However, US company-owned stores experienced a notable decline in late 2022, likely due to strategic realignment. The latest earnings call highlights challenges such as declining US same-store sales and delivery segment pressures, but international growth remains strong, driven by Asia and the Americas. The new DoorDash partnership and product launches are expected to bolster future growth, despite current operational hurdles.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Domino's Pizza Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 3.22%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 09, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a positive sentiment overall, with strong performance in the U.S. market, successful product launches, and growth in international sales. However, the company is facing challenges from a difficult macroeconomic environment, international store closures, and foreign currency impacts.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong U.S. Performance
Both delivery and carryout businesses in the U.S. were positive, driving meaningful market share gains.
Successful Product Launch
The launch of the Parmesan stuffed crust pizza has been a success, meeting high expectations and delivering incremental new customers.
Income from Operations Growth
Income from operations increased by 14.9% in Q2, excluding the impact of foreign currency, driven by higher U.S. franchise royalties and fees, gross margin growth in the supply chain, and lower general and administrative expenses.
Positive International Growth
International retail sales grew by 6%, driven by net store growth and positive same-store sales.
DoorDash Rollout
Completed national rollout with DoorDash, the largest aggregator in the U.S., expected to be a meaningful driver for U.S. comps in the back half of the year.
Franchisee Expansion
Refranchised thirty-six company-owned stores in Maryland to a franchisee with over two decades of experience with Domino's.
Negative Updates
Challenging Macro Environment
The second quarter financial results continued to be impacted by a challenging macro backdrop.
International Store Closures
Unit development in international markets is being impacted by store closures, particularly in Japan.
Foreign Currency Headwinds
Foreign currency expected to be a headwind of approximately 1% on operating income growth for 2025.
Company Guidance
During Domino's Pizza's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided several key metrics and forward-looking guidance. Domino's reported a 5.6% growth in global retail sales, excluding foreign currency impacts, with U.S. retail sales up 5.1% driven by same-store sales and net store growth. Same-store sales in the U.S. rose 3.4%, aided by the successful launch of the Parmesan stuffed crust pizza. The company refranchised thirty-six stores in Maryland, contributing to a $3.9 million pretax gain. For 2025, Domino's expects U.S. comp sales growth of 3% and international same-store sales growth of 1% to 2%. They plan to add 175-plus net new stores in the U.S. and maintain international net store growth in line with 2024. Operating income growth is anticipated to be approximately 8%, excluding foreign currency impacts. The company also highlighted the successful national rollout with DoorDash and ongoing growth in Domino's rewards program as significant contributors to future sales growth.

Domino's Pizza Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Domino's Pizza demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability with solid margin metrics. However, the balance sheet shows high leverage and negative equity, which raises concerns about long-term financial stability. Cash flow generation is robust, indicating efficient operational management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Domino's Pizza has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue increase of 5.3% compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin is strong at 39.5%, and net profit margin is healthy at 12.8%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 18.6% and 20.1%, respectively, indicating efficient operations and cost management. Overall, the income statement reflects a solid growth trajectory and profitability.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, indicating significant leverage, which poses a potential risk. However, the company maintains a good level of cash and short-term investments relative to its current liabilities, providing some liquidity buffer. Return on equity is not calculable due to negative equity. The equity ratio is negative due to liabilities exceeding assets, which is a concern for financial stability.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Domino's Pizza has shown a strong operating cash flow of $680.5 million TTM, with a notable free cash flow growth rate of 11.9% compared to the previous period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.12, indicating efficient cash generation relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.94, suggesting a strong ability to convert earnings into cash. This reflects efficient capital management despite high financing outflows.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.71B4.48B4.54B4.36B4.12B
Gross Profit1.85B1.73B1.65B1.69B1.59B
EBITDA1.01B929.55M851.34M890.43M790.68M
Net Income584.17M519.12M452.26M510.47M491.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.74B1.67B1.60B1.67B1.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments186.13M114.10M60.36M148.16M168.82M
Total Debt5.20B5.21B5.25B5.29B4.36B
Total Liabilities5.70B5.75B5.79B5.88B4.87B
Stockholders Equity-3.96B-4.07B-4.19B-4.21B-3.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow512.01M485.47M388.08M560.03M504.03M
Operating Cash Flow624.90M590.86M475.32M654.21M592.79M
Investing Cash Flow-31.23M-106.92M-53.68M-142.72M-128.93M
Financing Cash Flow-532.22M-476.36M-515.95M-522.83M-446.41M

Domino's Pizza Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price480.97
Price Trends
50DMA
465.98
Positive
100DMA
465.02
Positive
200DMA
450.81
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.66
Negative
RSI
61.98
Neutral
STOCH
48.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DPZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 480.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 461.02, above the 50-day MA of 465.98, and above the 200-day MA of 450.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DPZ.

Domino's Pizza Risk Analysis

Domino's Pizza disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Domino's Pizza reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Domino's Pizza Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$15.96B27.05-14.74%1.67%3.65%5.71%
73
Outperform
$7.17B22.26314.08%19.80%117.96%
68
Neutral
$2.08B11.5790.40%8.21%2.18%-5.15%
67
Neutral
$41.29B29.61-19.43%1.86%10.09%-11.50%
66
Neutral
$8.95B53.82-16.09%0.34%30.98%112.65%
63
Neutral
$17.14B11.11-7.24%3.14%1.68%-25.43%
55
Neutral
$1.48B19.21-20.16%4.06%-2.77%4.01%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
480.97
62.53
14.94%
EAT
Brinker International
161.30
98.61
157.30%
PZZA
Papa John's International
45.35
6.80
17.64%
WEN
Wendy's
10.84
-4.83
-30.82%
YUM
Yum! Brands
148.53
25.00
20.24%
WING
Wingstop
320.81
-48.38
-13.10%

Domino's Pizza Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Domino’s Pizza Appoints Stephen Kramer to Board
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Domino’s Pizza appointed Stephen H. Kramer to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Kramer, who is currently the President and CEO of Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc., brings extensive experience to the board. His appointment is expected to contribute valuable insights towards achieving Domino’s strategic priorities and long-term goals. This move aligns with Domino’s focus on culture, innovation, and community, reinforcing its position as a leading global pizza brand.

The most recent analyst rating on (DPZ) stock is a Hold with a $455.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Domino’s Pizza stock, see the DPZ Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 22, 2025