Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
NASDAQ:TXRH
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Texas Roadhouse
(NASDAQ:TXRH)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$200.00
▲(21.15% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
Overall score reflects strong financial performance and a constructive earnings update (traffic-led growth, solid cash generation, improved commodity guidance). The rating is tempered by margin pressure from commodities/mix, mixed technical momentum (negative MACD), and a valuation that is not clearly cheap despite a modest dividend.
Positive Factors
Consistent top-line & traffic growth
Traffic-led comparable sales growth demonstrates durable consumer demand and strong brand pull. Sustained increases in weekly sales and store weeks support restaurant-level operating leverage, driving margin-dollar expansion and funding unit economics for continued unit growth and franchising over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Commodity and beef cost pressure
Material exposure to commodity and beef price volatility is a structural margin risk for a steakhouse concept. Even with narrowed guidance, multi-quarter price swings can compress gross margins and weaken unit economics, forcing price increases, mix shifts, or margin erosion that persist beyond a single quarter.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent top-line & traffic growth
Traffic-led comparable sales growth demonstrates durable consumer demand and strong brand pull. Sustained increases in weekly sales and store weeks support restaurant-level operating leverage, driving margin-dollar expansion and funding unit economics for continued unit growth and franchising over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Texas Roadhouse Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Shows the total number of Texas Roadhouse locations, indicating the company’s expansion strategy and market penetration.
Shows the total number of Texas Roadhouse locations, indicating the company’s expansion strategy and market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTexas Roadhouse (TXRH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.70B
Dividend Yield1.63%
Average Volume (3M)1.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.0
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth10.25%
EPS Growth-3.61%
CountryUS
Employees95,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.27
Shares Outstanding65,729,614
10 Day Avg. Volume1,526,224
30 Day Avg. Volume1,213,044
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.56
Price to Book (P/B)7.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio32.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$197.00Price Target Upside19.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)6.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.53B
Texas Roadhouse Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Texas Roadhouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates and franchises restaurants under the Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers names. As of Dec...
How the Company Makes Money
Texas Roadhouse primarily makes money by selling food and beverages to guests at company-owned restaurants, with revenue recognized from customer transactions across dine-in and to-go channels. Its key revenue streams include (1) food sales (inclu...
Texas Roadhouse Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum: double‑digit revenue growth (12.8%), healthy comparable sales (+7.1%) driven by traffic (+4.5%), EPS growth (+9.6%), improved labor productivity and robust cash flow. Management also narrowed commodity guidance and highlighted successful tech and to‑go execution and international/franchise expansion. Offsets include meaningful commodity and beef cost pressure (COGS up 122 bps), a modest decline in restaurant margin percentage, negative mix from to‑go and alcohol, and higher G&A/depreciation expense. Overall, positives (top‑line growth, margin dollar expansion, cash generation, productivity gains and tech progress) outweigh the manageable cost and mix headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Revenue exceeded $1.6 billion for the quarter with revenue growth of 12.8% year-over-year, driven by a 6.8% increase in average weekly sales and a 5.7% increase in store weeks.
Negative Updates
Commodity Inflation and COGS Pressure
Food & beverage costs were 35.3% of sales in Q1, up 122 basis points year-over-year, primarily driven by 6.2% commodity inflation; management still expects Q2 to be the peak for commodity inflation (estimated ~7%–8% in Q2) before easing in the back half, leaving near-term cost pressure.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Revenue exceeded $1.6 billion for the quarter with revenue growth of 12.8% year-over-year, driven by a 6.8% increase in average weekly sales and a 5.7% increase in store weeks.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance: full‑year commodity inflation was reduced to 6.0%–7.0% (Q1 actual 6.2%; Q2 expected to peak around 7%–8% and be at or below the bottom end in H2), wage and other labor inflation remains 3%–4%, and capital expenditures are reiterated at approximately $400 million. They expect roughly 35 company‑owned openings in 2026 (Q1 opened 4; up to 9 openings across all brands in Q2 with openings weighted to the back half), franchise partners to add ~3 domestic Jaggers locations and up to 6 international Texas Roadhouse openings for the year, and noted Q1 cash of $215 million and cash flow from operations of $259 million (partially offset by ~$158 million of capex/dividends/repurchases and $72 million for acquisition of 5 California franchise restaurants). Additional guidance items: full‑year effective tax rate 14%–15%, total G&A dollars to increase low double‑digits, depreciation dollars to increase low teens, and management highlighted improved labor productivity (labor hours grew at ~35% of comparable traffic in Q1) with expectation of continued margin‑dollar leverage if traffic and pricing trends persist.Texas Roadhouse Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
80
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
77
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.06B | 5.88B | 5.37B | 4.63B | 4.01B | 3.46B |
| Gross Profit | 849.56M | 729.92M | 947.26M | 735.08M | 653.63M | 606.50M |
| EBITDA | 709.80M | 687.40M | 695.90M | 507.47M | 459.03M | 424.69M |
| Net Income | 415.32M | 405.55M | 433.59M | 304.88M | 269.82M | 245.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.57B | 3.55B | 3.19B | 2.79B | 2.53B | 2.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 214.56M | 134.71M | 245.22M | 104.25M | 173.86M | 335.64M |
| Total Debt | 1.05B | 1.89B | 854.47M | 770.89M | 753.36M | 744.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.04B | 2.07B | 1.82B | 1.64B | 1.50B | 1.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.52B | 1.46B | 1.36B | 1.14B | 1.01B | 1.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 360.63M | 342.07M | 399.29M | 217.95M | 265.60M | 268.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 751.41M | 730.07M | 753.63M | 564.98M | 511.73M | 468.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -474.01M | -480.52M | -336.90M | -367.17M | -263.73M | -195.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -283.92M | -360.07M | -275.75M | -267.43M | -409.77M | -301.23M |
Texas Roadhouse Technical Analysis
Positive
165.08
Price Trends
166.15
Positive
173.61
Positive
171.07
Positive
Market Momentum
3.96
Negative
61.06
Neutral
74.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TXRH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 165.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 166.11, below the 50-day MA of 166.15, and below the 200-day MA of 171.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TXRH.
Texas Roadhouse Risk Analysis
Texas Roadhouse disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Texas Roadhouse reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Texas Roadhouse Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $11.70B | 22.05 | 28.21% | 1.63% | 10.25% | -3.61% | |
71 Outperform | $5.89B | 12.42 | 123.43% | ― | 11.75% | 40.33% | |
67 Neutral | $2.96B | 12.87 | 38.34% | 2.11% | 5.14% | 8.17% | |
63 Neutral | $8.95B | 353.48 | 8.43% | ― | 22.41% | -51.61% | |
62 Neutral | $3.52B | 35.51 | -15.30% | 0.45% | 8.96% | -32.63% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $10.06B | 22.18 | -15.04% | 1.63% | 5.17% | -0.62% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
173.82
-14.53
-7.72%
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Texas Roadhouse Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Texas Roadhouse Posts Strong Q1 Results, Hikes Dividend
Positive
May 7, 2026
Texas Roadhouse reported solid first-quarter 2026 results for the 13 weeks ended March 31, 2026, with total revenue rising 12.8% to $1.63 billion and net income up 8.6% to $123.4 million, lifting diluted EPS 9.6% to $1.87. Comparable restaurant sa...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Texas Roadhouse Adds White Castle CEO to Board
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. appointed Lisa (Elizabeth K.) Ingram, chief executive officer and chair of White Castle System, Inc., to its board of directors, determining that she qualifies as an independent director under Nasdaq rules a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Texas Roadhouse Hikes Dividend Despite Earnings Pressure
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Texas Roadhouse reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rising 3.1% to $1.48 billion and full-year revenue up 9.4% to $5.88 billion, but income from operations and net income declined for both periods, reflecting commodity and labor inflation and the...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.