Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
NASDAQ:TXRH
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Texas Roadhouse
(NASDAQ:TXRH)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$194.00
▲(21.30% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
TXRH scores positively on fundamentals—strong revenue growth and excellent cash generation—driving most of the rating. The score is held back by higher 2025 leverage and earnings/margin pressure highlighted on the latest call (commodity and cost headwinds), plus weaker near-term technical momentum and a relatively premium P/E that raises execution risk.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Texas Roadhouse has consistently generated strong operating cash flow and improving free cash flow, with FCF covering net income in 2025. Durable cash conversion supports reinvestment, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks, providing financial flexibility to fund growth and weather cyclical restaurant pressures.
Negative Factors
Commodity-driven margin pressure
Beef-driven commodity inflation is large, front-loaded in H1 2026 and guided near ~7% for the year. Given menu mix and to‑go trends, pricing may not fully offset higher COGS, creating sustained restaurant margin percent pressure and reducing operating leverage over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Texas Roadhouse has consistently generated strong operating cash flow and improving free cash flow, with FCF covering net income in 2025. Durable cash conversion supports reinvestment, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks, providing financial flexibility to fund growth and weather cyclical restaurant pressures.
Read all positive factors
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.54B
Dividend Yield1.63%
Average Volume (3M)1.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.7
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth14.40%
EPS Growth12.45%
CountryUS
Employees95,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.28
Shares Outstanding65,925,150
10 Day Avg. Volume1,135,584
30 Day Avg. Volume1,019,605
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.56
Price to Book (P/B)7.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio32.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$198.75Price Target Upside24.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)6.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.54B
Texas Roadhouse Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Texas Roadhouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates and franchises restaurants under the Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers names. As of Dec...
How the Company Makes Money
Texas Roadhouse generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages in its restaurants. The company's revenue model is built around its casual dining experience, which encourages repeat visits and customer loyalty. Key revenue strea...
Texas Roadhouse Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Shows the total number of Texas Roadhouse locations, indicating the company’s expansion strategy and market penetration.
Shows the total number of Texas Roadhouse locations, indicating the company’s expansion strategy and market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTexas Roadhouse Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: strong top-line performance, continued unit growth, solid cash generation and strategic investments (digital kitchen rollout, acquisitions, dividend increase) are notable positives. Offsetting these are meaningful margin compression and EPS declines in Q4 driven by elevated commodity (chiefly beef) inflation, mix changes and the one-week lapping effect, plus anticipated cost pressures in 2026 (commodity, insurance, G&A). Management provided concrete actions (menu pricing, technology, development discipline) and a confident growth outlook but acknowledged near-term margin headwinds.Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
2025 revenue grew to nearly $5.9 billion and full-year comparable same-store sales increased 4.9%, driven by 2.8% traffic growth.
Negative Updates
Significant Margin and EPS Compression in Q4
Fourth quarter diluted EPS fell 26.1% to $1.28. Restaurant margin dollars decreased 15.6% to $205 million and restaurant margin dollars per store week fell 15.1% to $22,200.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
2025 revenue grew to nearly $5.9 billion and full-year comparable same-store sales increased 4.9%, driven by 2.8% traffic growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for FY2026: the company is planning approximately 35 company restaurant openings (plus franchise development of 6 international Texas Roadhouses and 4 domestic Jaggers), capital expenditures of roughly $400 million (excludes the $72 million paid for five California franchise restaurants closed at the start of the year, funded in part by a $50 million draw on the credit facility), and a 10% increase to the quarterly dividend to $0.75. Key operating and cost assumptions include commodity inflation of about 7% (beef-driven, expected to be above that level in H1—Q1 roughly in line with guidance and Q2 the peak at very high-single-digits—and below it in H2), wage and other labor inflation of 3–4% (with the wage component moderating), menu pricing taking a 1.9% increase at the start of Q2 (implying ~3.1% pricing in Q1 and ~3.6% in Q2–Q3), G&A dollars up low double-digits for the year, an updated full‑year tax rate of 14–15%, commodity contracting of ~65% locked for H1 and ~25% for H2, and an operational expectation to run labor hours at a sub‑50% level.Texas Roadhouse Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.88B | 5.37B | 4.63B | 4.01B | 3.46B |
| Gross Profit | 729.92M | 947.26M | 735.08M | 653.63M | 606.50M |
| EBITDA | 687.40M | 695.90M | 507.47M | 459.03M | 424.69M |
| Net Income | 405.55M | 433.59M | 304.88M | 269.82M | 245.29M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.55B | 3.19B | 2.79B | 2.53B | 2.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 134.71M | 245.22M | 104.25M | 173.86M | 335.64M |
| Total Debt | 1.89B | 854.47M | 770.89M | 753.36M | 744.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.07B | 1.82B | 1.64B | 1.50B | 1.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.46B | 1.36B | 1.14B | 1.01B | 1.06B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 342.07M | 399.29M | 217.95M | 265.60M | 268.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 730.07M | 753.63M | 564.98M | 511.73M | 468.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -480.52M | -336.90M | -367.17M | -263.73M | -195.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -360.07M | -275.75M | -267.43M | -409.77M | -301.23M |
Texas Roadhouse Technical Analysis
Negative
159.94
Price Trends
176.21
Negative
174.53
Negative
173.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.83
Positive
38.56
Neutral
33.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TXRH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 159.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 167.59, below the 50-day MA of 176.21, and below the 200-day MA of 173.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TXRH.
Texas Roadhouse Risk Analysis
Texas Roadhouse disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Texas Roadhouse reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Texas Roadhouse Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $10.54B | 32.67 | 28.20% | 1.63% | 14.40% | 12.45% | |
67 Neutral | $12.38B | 23.81 | -15.28% | 1.63% | 3.92% | 4.98% | |
64 Neutral | $6.46B | 13.13 | 134.24% | ― | 23.18% | 138.17% | |
63 Neutral | $2.78B | 15.71 | 37.06% | 2.11% | 4.90% | 27.14% | |
63 Neutral | $9.71B | 109.16 | 8.43% | ― | 23.93% | 153.50% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $4.56B | 41.12 | -24.54% | 0.45% | 15.56% | 79.02% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
159.94
9.13
6.05%
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WING
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CAVA
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Texas Roadhouse Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Texas Roadhouse Adds White Castle CEO to Board
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. appointed Lisa (Elizabeth K.) Ingram, chief executive officer and chair of White Castle System, Inc., to its board of directors, determining that she qualifies as an independent director under Nasdaq rules a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Texas Roadhouse Hikes Dividend Despite Earnings Pressure
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Texas Roadhouse reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rising 3.1% to $1.48 billion and full-year revenue up 9.4% to $5.88 billion, but income from operations and net income declined for both periods, reflecting commodity and labor inflation and the...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Texas Roadhouse updates executive compensation with performance incentives
Positive
Dec 31, 2025
On December 30, 2025, the Compensation Committee of Texas Roadhouse’s board approved a comprehensive adjustment to 2026 compensation for its principal executive, financial, accounting officers and other named executives, aligning base salary...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.