First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG)
NASDAQ:FWRG
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FWRG Stock Chart & Stats
$12.75
-$0.62(-3.15%)
At close: 4:00 PM EST
$12.75
-$0.62(-3.15%)
Day’s Range― - ―
52-Week Range$9.97 - $19.53
Previous CloseN/A
Volume108.15K
Average Volume (3M)1.13M
Market Cap
$736.04M
Enterprise Value$1.46B
Total Cash (Recent Filing)$23.57M
Total Debt (Recent Filing)$761.92M
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.6
Beta1.23
Next Earnings
Aug 11, 2026EPS Estimate
0.06Next Dividend Ex-DateN/A
Dividend YieldN/A
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.29
Shares Outstanding61,644,886
10 Day Avg. Volume1,258,778
30 Day Avg. Volume1,127,344
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio15.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.77
P/FCF Ratio-30.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.63Price Target Upside46.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.38B
Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Systemwide Growth & Revenue MomentumSustained unit growth and strong top-line expansion increase scale and recurring revenue base. Adding company‑owned and franchised restaurants diversifies revenue streams and spreads fixed costs, improving long‑term margin potential and supporting multi‑year growth targets toward a larger national footprint.
Restaurant‑level Margin Expansion & EBITDAMeaningful restaurant‑level margin improvement and raised adjusted EBITDA guidance reflect durable operating leverage from pricing, mix and cost control. Improved unit economics create capacity to fund growth and reinvestment while providing a structural buffer against moderate cost or traffic headwinds.
Marketing & Menu Driving Check GrowthA scalable marketing rollout plus a well‑received core menu drive higher check, attachment and brand awareness. Durable improvement in average check and purchase intent supports sustainable same‑store revenue per unit and enhances ROI on marketing spend as the system grows.
Bears Say
Elevated LeverageHigh leverage relative to earnings limits financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to cost or demand shocks. With modest net margins, debt service consumes a larger share of cash flow, constraining the ability to self‑fund expansion or absorb adverse operating trends over the coming quarters.
Negative Free Cash FlowNegative free cash flow amid heavy reinvestment and growth capex (~$150–$160M guidance) raises reliance on external funding. Persistent negative FCF reduces scope for balance‑sheet de‑risking or shareholder returns and heightens execution risk if cash generation doesn't improve.
Thin GAAP Profitability & Traffic PressureThin GAAP margins and a reported net loss despite EBITDA gains indicate limited cushion below the EBITDA line. Declining traffic pressures revenue resilience; combined with inflation exposure, these factors increase downside risk to earnings and cash flow if unit economics slip further.
First Watch Restaurant Group News
FWRG FAQ
What was First Watch Restaurant Group’s price range in the past 12 months?
First Watch Restaurant Group lowest stock price was $9.97 and its highest was $19.53 in the past 12 months.
What is First Watch Restaurant Group’s market cap?
First Watch Restaurant Group’s market cap is $736.04M.
When is First Watch Restaurant Group’s upcoming earnings report date?
First Watch Restaurant Group’s upcoming earnings report date is Aug 11, 2026 which is in 60 days.
How were First Watch Restaurant Group’s earnings last quarter?
First Watch Restaurant Group released its earnings results on May 05, 2026. The company reported -$0.04 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.024 by -$0.016.
Is First Watch Restaurant Group overvalued?
According to Wall Street analysts First Watch Restaurant Group’s price is currently Undervalued.
Does First Watch Restaurant Group pay dividends?
First Watch Restaurant Group does not currently pay dividends.
What is First Watch Restaurant Group’s EPS estimate?
First Watch Restaurant Group’s EPS estimate is 0.06.
How many shares outstanding does First Watch Restaurant Group have?
First Watch Restaurant Group has 61,644,886 shares outstanding.
What happened to First Watch Restaurant Group’s price movement after its last earnings report?
First Watch Restaurant Group reported an EPS of -$0.04 in its last earnings report, missing expectations of -$0.024. Following the earnings report the stock price went down -0.246%.
Which hedge fund is a major shareholder of First Watch Restaurant Group?
Currently, no hedge funds are holding shares in FWRG
What is the TipRanks Smart Score and how is it calculated?
Smart Score combines eight research factors - such as analyst recommendations, hedge fund trends, and technical indicators - to measure a stock’s outlook. These signals are unified into a single score that reflects bullish or bearish momentum. See detailed methodology
First Watch Restaurant Group Stock Smart Score
Underperform
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Analyst Consensus
Strong Buy
Average Price Target:
$18.63 (46.08% Upside)
$18.63 (46.08% Upside)
Blogger Sentiment
Bullish
FWRG Sentiment 100%
Sector Average 66%
Sector Average 66%
Hedge Fund Trend
Decreased
By 3.3M Shares
Last Quarter.
Last Quarter.
Insider Transactions
Sold Shares
Worth $1.4M over
the Last 3 Months
the Last 3 Months
News Sentiment
Very Bullish
Bullish news 100%
Bearish news 0%
Bearish news 0%
Technicals
SMA
Positive
20 days / 200 days
Momentum
-14.50%
12-Months-Change
Fundamentals
Return on Equity
2.85%
Trailing 12-Months
Asset Growth
14.89%
Trailing 12-Months
Company Description
First Watch Restaurant Group
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. oversees and licenses restaurant operations under the First Watch brand. As of March 23, 2022, its extensive presence included 341 company-owned eateries and 94 franchised outlets, operating across 28 U.S. states. The enterprise, established in 1983 with its main office in Bradenton, Florida, previously traded as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. before changing its designation to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019.
FWRG Company Deck
FWRG Earnings Call
Q1 2026
0:00 / 0:00
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call presented several meaningful operational and financial positives: robust revenue growth (+17.3%), adjusted EBITDA expansion (+22.2%) and sizable restaurant-level margin improvement (+200 bps), driven by successful marketing and a well-received new core menu. Key strategic priorities (marketing rollout, menu innovation, disciplined development) are showing early traction. Offsetting items include negative same-restaurant traffic (-2.0%), a reported net loss of $2.7M, modest GAAP operating income (0.3%), and ongoing inflationary/labor pressures (commodity inflation 1%–3%, labor 3%–5%). Overall, management reiterated revenue and same-store guidance, raised the low end of adjusted EBITDA guidance, and emphasized confidence in execution and pipeline. On balance, the positive operational momentum and guidance actions outweigh the challenges, though execution risk and macrocost pressures remain.View all FWRG earnings summariesFWRG Stock 12 Month Forecast
Average Price Target
$18.63
▲(46.08% Upside)
Technical Analysis
Ownership Overview
13.03% Insiders
36.42% Mutual Funds
36.19% Other Institutional Investors
2.86% Public Companies and
Individual Investors